（原标题：内需"双引擎"扩容提质 增长新动能释放新潜力——2025年终经济观察） 证券时报记者 贺觉渊 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。在高度不确定性的外部环境下，由消费和投资组成的内需"双引擎"继 续推动国民经济运行保持平稳，且消费结构持续升级，投资结构不断优化，为今后释放内需潜力积蓄动 能。在受访专家学者看来，若进一步加大扩内需政策力度，内需潜力有望持续释放，更大程度发挥消费 和投资对经济增长的拉动作用。 服务消费扩容提质 在提振消费专项行动各项措施作用下，今年以来商品消费稳步扩大，同时旅游出行、文化体育、网上消 费持续活跃，为消费扩大注入新的动力。今年前10个月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.3%，服务零 售额增长5.3%。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》已将"居民消费率明显提高，内需 拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强"作为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标。尽管有效需求不足的 局面仍有待破解，但今年以来的消费结构升级与投资结构优化，将为"十五五"开局之年积蓄动能。 中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部主任孙学工近日表示，明年国内大市场潜力将进一步释放。居民消费能 力和消费结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a dual engine of consumption and investment in driving China's economic growth, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the uncertain external environment [1][6]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - Service consumption is expanding and improving, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.3% year-on-year and service retail sales growing by 5.3% in the first ten months of the year [2]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [2]. - The proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure is projected to reach 46.1% in 2024, with a further increase to 46.8% in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a shift towards service consumption as a key growth driver [2]. Group 2: Investment Structure - Fixed asset investment, excluding real estate, grew by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, with manufacturing investment increasing by 2.7% [4]. - High-tech industries, particularly in information services and aerospace, are experiencing rapid investment growth, while overall investment growth is slowing [4]. - The impact of fiscal policies, such as special bonds and long-term loans, is expected to support investment growth, although the immediate effects may not be realized until early next year [5][8]. Group 3: Policy Support - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension refinancing facility, indicating a shift in macro policy focus towards service consumption [3]. - The government is implementing various policies to enhance service consumption, including subsidies and support for sectors like elderly care and cultural tourism [3]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan aims to significantly increase the role of domestic demand in economic growth, with a focus on improving consumption rates [6][7].

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected weakness in November, with ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1][5][6] - The decline in employment contrasts sharply with the upwardly revised addition of 47,000 jobs in October and falls significantly short of economists' expectations for a 40,000 increase [1][6] Employment Trends - Large enterprises (50 or more employees) added a net of 90,000 jobs, while small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) lost 120,000 jobs, with firms employing 20-49 employees losing 74,000 jobs [1][6] - The overall decline in employment is the largest single-month drop since March 2023 [1][6] Industry Performance - The education and healthcare sectors added 33,000 jobs, and the leisure and hospitality sector increased by 13,000 jobs [2] - The most significant job losses occurred in professional and business services, which saw a decrease of 26,000 jobs, followed by information services with a loss of 20,000 jobs, manufacturing with a loss of 18,000 jobs, and both financial activities and construction losing 9,000 jobs each [2] Wage Growth - Wage growth also slowed, with wages for employees remaining in their positions rising by 4.4% year-over-year in November, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October [3][7] - ADP's Chief Economist noted that the hiring pace has been inconsistent due to cautious consumer behavior and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, with small businesses being the hardest hit [3][7] Federal Reserve Implications - The ADP report is critical as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10, where there is a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, despite some officials expressing concerns about the necessity of further easing [3][7] - Recent trends indicate a divergence among policymakers regarding the need for rate cuts to prevent further labor market issues versus concerns about exacerbating inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [3][7] Future Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has postponed the release of the November non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for December 5, to December 16 due to a government shutdown affecting data collection [3][7] - There are indications that the labor market, previously viewed as balanced with low hiring and low layoffs, may be shifting as several large companies, including Apple and Verizon, have begun announcing layoffs [3][7]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, aligning with market expectations[1] - The manufacturing new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, driven by the implementation of the "two 500 billion" growth stabilization policies[2] - The manufacturing production index rebounded to 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to non-contraction territory[3] Economic Factors - The recent "anti-involution" policies have led to a rise in raw material prices, with the main raw material price index increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%[4] - The production expectations index for manufacturing improved by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers[5] - The construction PMI rose to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, supported by the completion of 500 billion new policy financial tools[7] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, marking the first entry into contraction territory for the year[6] - The service sector's decline is attributed to weakened consumer demand and significant adjustments in the real estate market[6] Future Outlook - The overall macroeconomic environment remains stable but shows signs of weakness, with the comprehensive PMI output index falling below the equilibrium line for the first time this year[8] - Projections indicate a potential decline in the manufacturing PMI to around 49.1% in December, influenced by external trade pressures and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[8]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI in November increased to 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, reflecting a decline in non-manufacturing sectors [1][2][4] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with most sub-indices showing improvement, suggesting a stabilization in production activities and a recovery in demand [2] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month [2] - The new export orders index improved significantly to 47.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points [2] - The purchasing price index for raw materials rose to 53.6%, indicating a faster increase in raw material prices, while the ex-factory price index increased to 48.2%, showing a narrowing decline in finished product prices [2] - High-tech manufacturing maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.1%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors saw slight declines in their PMIs [2] Business Activity by Enterprise Size - Small enterprises showed a significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up by 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high [3] - Large enterprises experienced a decline in PMI to 49.3%, down by 0.6 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a slight improvement to 48.9% [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, down by 0.6 percentage points, primarily due to seasonal effects from the high base during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [4] - The service sector's business activity index decreased to 49.5%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point drop, but is expected to recover as year-end consumption demand increases [4] - The financial sector showed strong performance with business activity and new orders indices rising above 55%, indicating robust activity in banking and capital market services [4] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.6%, up by 0.5 percentage points, driven by accelerated project progress and supportive financial policies [4] Policy and Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the slight recovery in manufacturing PMI indicates improved market confidence, but caution that the index remains below the threshold, highlighting ongoing economic pressures [5] - There is a call for enhanced macroeconomic policy measures to stimulate demand and support investment, particularly as the year-end approaches [5][6] - Anticipated policy support and the release of pent-up demand are expected to stabilize investment and consumption, contributing to a positive economic close for the year [6]

市场需求有所修复 11月，制造业PMI小幅回升。体现市场需求的制造业新订单指数回升0.4个百分点至49.2%，表明市场需求有所修复。 从需求结构上看，新订单指数与新出口订单指数差值在10月份出现跳升后，回落1.3个百分点至1.6个百分点。新出口订单指数回升1.7 个百分点至47.6%，是11月制造业新订单指数上升的重要推动因素。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在接受《每日经济新闻》记者微信采访时表示，10月末中美经贸会谈取得积极成果，对11月出口形成一 定拉动。 王青指出，9月末至10月初推出"两个5000亿"稳增长政策，其中5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已在10月投放完毕，会在11月对基建投资 和制造业投资形成拉动；财政部10月份明确中央财政从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元下达地方，这将补充地方财力，其中为 项目建设提供2000亿元新增资金。这些都会拉动国内市场需求。 11月30日，国家统计局公布11月中国采购经理指数（PMI）运行情况。 数据显示，11月，中国制造业PMI为49.2%，比10月回升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。其中，生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.0% 和49.2%，分别比上月上升 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In November, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index were reported at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, reflecting ongoing expansion in this sector [1][3] Group 2: Market Demand and Orders - The new orders index for manufacturing increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, suggesting a recovery in market demand [2] - The new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, contributing significantly to the increase in the new orders index [2] - Recent policy measures, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, are expected to stimulate infrastructure and manufacturing investments, thereby boosting domestic market demand [2] Group 3: Inventory and Production Trends - The raw materials inventory index remained below the prosperity line at 47.3%, indicating a continued destocking trend, while the finished goods inventory index also decreased, suggesting accelerated destocking [3] - The difference between the new orders index and the finished goods inventory index expanded by 1.2 percentage points, indicating that companies are focusing on reducing inventory levels [2][3] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show resilience and growth, with a PMI of 50.1%, despite a slight decline from the previous month [3] - The equipment manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8% and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4%, both entering contraction territory, indicating a potential need for policy adjustments to stimulate these sectors [3] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.6%, driven by the completion of the 500 billion yuan policy financial tool, which is expected to support infrastructure investment [5]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5% [1][3][7] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting improved market confidence [1][3] - Key indices such as production, new orders, and procurement volume have shown increases, with production index reaching the critical point of 50.0% [3][4] - The manufacturing sector is expected to see a stabilization and potential recovery in demand, driven by year-end festivities and winter consumption [5][10] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.6 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [1][7] - The decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous month’s holiday season, affecting sectors like retail, accommodation, and transportation [7][9] - Despite the overall slowdown, financial services and information services sectors showed robust growth, contributing positively to the economic environment [8][9] Investment Outlook - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 49.6%, marking the second increase in the second half of the year, indicating improved confidence among construction firms [11] - Investment is anticipated to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth, supported by accelerated project implementation and policy measures [10][11] - The overall economic environment is expected to benefit from increased investment and consumption as year-end demand is released [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November, indicating a mixed economic outlook with slight improvements in manufacturing but a slowdown in non-manufacturing sectors [2][6]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting an improvement in market confidence [2][3]. - Key indices such as production, new orders, and procurement volume have shown increases, with production index at 50.0% and new orders at 49.2%, indicating recovery in both production and demand [3][4]. - Analysts expect that December will see a stabilization and potential recovery in manufacturing demand, driven by year-end consumption and festive activities [5]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in service-related activities [6][7]. - The decline is attributed to the high base effect from the previous month’s holiday season, impacting sectors like retail, hospitality, and transportation [7]. - However, financial services and information services have shown resilience, with indices above 55%, indicating robust growth in these areas [7]. Investment Outlook - Despite the slowdown in some service sectors, the construction business activity index rose to 49.6%, marking the second increase in the second half of the year [8]. - The business activity expectation index for construction is at 57.9%, indicating renewed confidence among construction firms [8]. - Analysts predict that with the acceleration of key projects and supportive policies, investment will continue to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth towards the end of the year [8].

Core Points - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month [1][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, reflecting a slowdown in non-manufacturing activities [1][7] - The overall economic sentiment remains stable, with a composite PMI output index of 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from last month, suggesting improved market confidence [3] - Key indices such as production, new orders, and procurement volume have shown increases, with production index reaching the critical point of 50.0% [3][4] - The export sector is stabilizing, with all major industries and enterprises reporting an increase in new export orders [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.6 percentage points, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous month [7][8] - Consumer-related service industries experienced declines in business activity indices, including shopping, accommodation, and transportation [7][9] - Financial activities and information services showed robust growth, contributing positively to the overall economic environment [8][9] Investment Outlook - Investment is expected to continue supporting economic stability, with the construction sector showing signs of recovery [10][11] - The construction business activity index rose to 49.6%, indicating improved sentiment among construction firms [11] - Analysts predict that with the acceleration of key projects and supportive policies, investment will play a crucial role in stabilizing growth towards the end of the year [11]