1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas stagflation trading pattern continued this week but eased marginally. Oil prices stabilized at a high level, the US dollar strengthened moderately, and global risk appetite further declined. The expectation of interest rate hikes by major overseas central banks intensified, leading to a fiercer competition for liquidity in the financial market and amplifying market volatility, with the VIX breaking through the 30 mark [2]. - The financial market presented a pattern of "stable oil and weak stocks." Brent crude oil fluctuated narrowly at a high level; global stock markets generally weakened, with the US technology sector leading the decline, European stocks being relatively resilient, and Chinese assets falling less than US stocks; US Treasury yields rose slightly, there was significant selling pressure on the long - end of Japanese bonds; Chinese bonds declined against the trend; the US dollar index returned above 100, and non - US currencies were moderately pressured; precious metals showed divergence, with gold flat and silver falling; credit spreads widened [2]. - In terms of high - frequency data, the US economic outlook continued to decline. GDP Now decreased from 2.33% to 2.00%; the employment market remained stable, with initial jobless claims at 210,000 and continuing claims at 1.819 million remaining unchanged; on the consumption side, the Redbook retail year - on - year increased from 6.4% to 6.7%, showing a slight improvement, but the gasoline retail price rose another 6.4% to $3.956, suppressing consumer confidence; the 30 - year mortgage rate rose from 6.29% to 6.38%, continuing to suppress housing demand. The US FCI dropped sharply from 0.123 to 0.019, approaching the zero axis, and the eurozone FCI decreased from 0.975 to 0.697, with financial conditions tightening significantly [2]. - In terms of overseas policies, officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continued to adopt a hawkish tone. Federal Reserve Vice - Chairman Jefferson closely monitored the dilemma of energy prices on inflation and consumption, expecting the unemployment rate to remain around 4.4% but with a downward risk; the European Central Bank sent a more hawkish signal, with Lagarde stating that the soaring energy prices would have a ripple effect for several months, and German Central Bank President Nagel saying that an interest rate hike in April was a possibility; the Bank of Japan released an estimated range of the neutral interest rate from - 0.9% to + 0.5%, and the current 0.75% policy rate was already above the upper limit of the range [2]. - In terms of geopolitical situations, the Trump administration's military actions against Iran were not without a plan. From a series of arrangements such as promoting the production increase of interceptor missiles several months in advance, deliberately setting obstacles in the nuclear negotiations, and controlling Venezuelan oil to hedge energy risks, the US may have anticipated the direction of the Middle East conflict early. In the short term, Iran still had sufficient counter - attack capabilities, but in the long term, its national strength would be irreversibly consumed under long - term air saturation bombing; the US was currently considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops, and Trump might hope to use the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip to seek a phased "victory" and withdraw, but the war was still difficult to end quickly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Overview: Intensified Liquidity Competition Increases Market Volatility - The global financial market continued the stagflation trading logic this week, but the increase in oil prices narrowed significantly, and the market entered a high - level oscillation stage. The financial market presented a pattern of "stable oil and weak stocks." Brent crude oil fluctuated narrowly at a high level, rising only 0.34% to $112.57 per barrel, and WTI rose 1.34% to $99.64; global stock markets generally weakened, with the US technology sector leading the decline, the Nasdaq falling 3.23%, and the M7 index dropping 5.00%, European stocks being relatively resilient, and Chinese assets falling less than US stocks; US Treasury yields rose slightly, there was significant selling pressure on the long - end of Japanese bonds, the 10 - year Japanese bond yield rose 11bp to 2.388%, and the 30 - year Japanese bond yield rose 19bp to 3.722%; Chinese bonds declined against the trend, with the 10 - year Chinese bond yield falling 2.1bp to 1.818%; the US dollar index rose 0.51% and returned above 100, non - US currencies were moderately pressured; precious metals showed divergence, with gold flat and silver falling, and the London silver dropping 6.32%; credit spreads widened, and the spread of US high - yield bonds widened 19bp to 3.31% [6]. - In terms of high - frequency data, the US economic outlook continued to decline, the employment market remained relatively stable, the cost pressure on the consumption side increased, and financial conditions tightened significantly. In terms of economic outlook, the US economic surprise index fell from 28.2 to 22.1, continuing the downward trend; the eurozone's improved from - 10.40 to - 4.49, showing marginal stabilization but still in negative territory; China maintained a relatively high positive level of 14.70; GDP Now decreased from 2.33% to 2.00%, and the market's expectation for US economic growth continued to cool. In terms of employment, initial jobless claims were 210,000, slightly up from 205,000 in the previous week, still at a low level; continuing claims were 1.819 million, remaining unchanged, and there were no significant signs of cooling in the labor market. In terms of consumption, the Redbook retail year - on - year increased from 6.4% to 6.7%, showing a slight improvement in growth; however, the gasoline retail price rose from $3.718 to $3.956, an increase of about 6.4%, and the subsequent pressure on consumer confidence and inflation expectations was worthy of attention. In terms of real estate, the 30 - year mortgage rate rose from 6.29% to 6.38%, rising for several consecutive weeks and continuously suppressing housing demand. In terms of financial conditions, the US FCI dropped sharply from 0.123 to 0.019, approaching the zero axis, resonating with the jump in VIX and the widening of high - yield spreads, and the financial environment tightened rapidly; the eurozone FCI decreased from 0.975 to 0.697, falling below 1.0 and continuing to decline, with a significant tightening amplitude [7]. - In terms of overseas policies, officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continued to adopt a hawkish tone, focusing on the secondary effects of energy price shocks. The Federal Reserve's Deputy - Chairman Jefferson closely monitored high energy prices, believing that if they persisted, it would worsen inflation and drag down consumption and corporate spending, posing challenges to the central bank's dual mandate, and expecting the unemployment rate to remain around 4.4% but with a downward risk; Miran discussed the prospect of balance - sheet reduction, believing that it was reasonable for reserves to return to a level between scarcity and abundance, and it was reasonable for the Federal Reserve's balance - sheet to account for about 18% of GDP. The European Central Bank sent a more hawkish signal. Lagarde clearly stated that the soaring energy prices would have a ripple effect for several months, and if it led to a significant but temporary inflation surge, the European Central Bank could consider a measured policy adjustment; Chief Economist Lane adjusted the assessment of the energy shock from "moderate" to "moderately large"; German Central Bank President Nagel said that an interest rate hike in April was a possibility. The Bank of Japan released an estimated range of the neutral interest rate from - 0.9% to + 0.5%, which did not change much from before. The current 0.75% policy rate was already above the upper limit of the natural interest rate to some extent, providing a reference for further interest rate hikes but also adding complexity [8]. - In terms of geopolitical situations, from a systematic strategic perspective, the Trump administration's military actions against Iran may not have been impromptu but a well - planned and clearly - targeted systematic arrangement. In terms of military preparations, the US promoted a four - fold expansion of the THAAD system's production capacity and a three - fold increase in the delivery volume of PAC3 interceptor missiles several months before the conflict; in terms of diplomatic cover, the US may have deliberately sent unprofessional personnel to participate in the Iran nuclear negotiations, creating conditions for subsequent military actions through the negotiation process; in terms of energy hedging, the US took control of Venezuelan oil sales rights one month before the war, hedging the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked in advance. In the short term, Iran still had sufficient missile and drone counter - attack capabilities, but in the long term, it faced long - term air saturation bombing by the US and Israel, and its national strength would be irreversibly consumed. The US was currently considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops, and Trump might hope to exchange islands for the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and seek a phased "victory" exit window, but the war was still difficult to end quickly in the short term. Meanwhile, Israel took advantage of the window period when the US focused on Iran to promote military and colonial expansion in Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank [9][10]. 3.2 Financial Markets: Increased Market Volatility, VIX Breaks 30 - This week, crude oil was generally stable, and precious metals showed divergence. Brent crude oil rose slightly from $112.19 to $112.57, with a weekly increase of only 0.34%, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation at a high level; WTI crude oil rose 1.34% to $99.64, approaching the $100 mark. In terms of precious metals, London gold rose slightly from $4492.42 to $4494.09, basically unchanged; London silver declined significantly by 6.32% to $67.80, with a significant divergence in the trends of gold and silver, and the gold - silver ratio widened significantly. Industrial metals showed strong performance, with LME copper rising 2.23% to $12195 and LME aluminum rising 2.52% to $3296, reflecting a marginal improvement in the market's expectation for manufacturing demand [13]. - This week, the global equity market generally weakened, with the US technology sector leading the decline and European stocks showing relative resilience. Specifically, the three major US stock indexes declined collectively, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.90%, the S&P 500 fell 2.12%, the Nasdaq fell 3.23%, and the M7 index dropped significantly by 5.00%, with obvious selling pressure on technology stocks; the VIX index jumped from 26.78 to 31.05, reflecting a further weakening of market risk appetite. In Europe, the German DAX fell slightly by 0.74%, the French CAC was basically flat (+ 0.08%), the Stoxx 600 fell slightly by 0.04%, and the UK FTSE was basically flat (- 0.03%). European stocks generally performed significantly better than US stocks, indicating that funds may have re - balanced from the US to Europe. In the Asia - Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.58%, the South Korean KOSPI fell significantly by 6.49%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.78%. In terms of Chinese assets, the CSI 300 fell 1.51%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.28%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.93%, and the MSCI China Index fell 1.24%, with an overall decline less than that of the US and South Korean markets, showing certain relative resilience [14][15]. - This week, global bond yields showed mixed trends, and the pressure on the long - end of Japanese bonds was particularly prominent. In the US, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose about 5bp from 4.380% to 4.428%, the 30 - year rose about 3bp from 4.938% to 4.965%, and the 2 - year rose about 1bp from 3.900% to 3.912%, with a limited overall increase. In Europe, the 10 - year German bond yield rose about 5bp to 3.094%; the 10 - year UK bond yield fell slightly by 2bp to 4.974%, being one of the few major markets with a decline in yields this week. In Japan, the 10 - year Japanese bond yield rose about 11bp to 2.388%, and the 30 - year rose significantly by about 19bp to 3.722%. There was significant selling pressure on the long - end of Japanese bonds, which may be related to the market's expectation of the Bank of Japan's policy adjustment. In China, the 10 - year Chinese bond yield fell slightly by 2.1bp to 1.818%, and the 30 - year fell 4.0bp to 2.354%. Chinese interest rates declined against the trend, forming a sharp contrast with the rising overseas interest rates. The MOVE index rose slightly from 108.84 to 111.95, an increase of 2.9%, and the bond market volatility remained at a relatively high level [17][18]. - This week, the US dollar index strengthened slightly, and non - US currencies were moderately pressured. The US dollar index rose from 99.65 to 100.15, with a weekly increase of 0.51%, and re - stood above the 100 mark. The euro against the US dollar fell from 1.1572 to 1.1509, a decline of 0.54%; the British pound against the US dollar fell 0.61% to 1.3259; the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose from 159.23 to 160.31, and the Japanese yen depreciated 0.68%. The RMB exchange rate remained stable, with the US dollar against the RMB rising slightly from 6.904 to 6.911, a depreciation of only 0.11%; the RMB against the euro rose from 7.97 to 7.96, mainly reflecting the weakening of the euro. Overall, the US dollar received moderate support in the context of a decline in risk appetite, but the increase was limited [18]. - This week, global credit spreads and sovereign spreads generally widened, reflecting an increase in the market's concern about the economic outlook. The spread of US investment - grade bonds rose slightly from 0.87% to 0.89%, and the spread of high - yield bonds widened from 3.12% to 3.31%, an increase of 19bp, indicating that the risk preference in the credit market was accelerating to weaken, especially at the high - yield end. The spread between the 10 - year Italian and German government bonds widened from 92bp to 96bp, and the risk premium of peripheral European countries increased slightly. The spread between the 10 - year US and German government bonds fell slightly from 134bp to 133bp, remaining generally stable. The spread between the 10 - year US and Japanese government bonds narrowed from 210bp to 204bp, mainly reflecting that the increase in Japanese bond yields was greater than that of US bonds [19]. 3.3 Overseas High - Frequency Data Tracking 3.3.1 Economic Outlook: The US Economic Outlook Continued to Decline, and the Eurozone Improved Marginally but Remained in Negative Territory - In the past week, the economic surprise indexes of major economies showed obvious divergence. The US economic surprise index fell from 28.2 at the beginning of the week to 22.1, although it still remained in the positive range, it continued the recent downward trend, indicating that the degree of the US economic data exceeding expectations was gradually narrowing, and the economic momentum was weakening marginally. The eurozone's economic surprise index improved from - 10.40 to - 4.49. Although it was still in the negative range, the decline narrowed significantly, indicating that the European economic fundamentals showed marginal signs of stabilization. China's economic surprise index fell slightly from 15.27 to 14.70, generally maintaining a relatively high positive level, indicating that China's economic data continued to be better than market expectations. Japan's economic surprise index rose slightly from 0.056 to 0.062, basically remaining around zero, and its economic performance was basically in line with market expectations. GDP Now decreased from 2.33% to 2.00%, continuing to decline from the previous high, reflecting that the market's expectation for US economic growth was gradually cooling [24]. - In terms of the financial conditions index, both the US and the eurozone tightened significantly. The US FCI dropped sharply from 0.123 to 0.019, approaching the zero axis, and declined significantly compared with the beginning of the week, resonating with the jump in VIX and the widening of high - yield spreads, reflecting that the financial environment was tightening rapidly. The eurozone FCI decreased from 0.975 to 0.697, falling below the 1.0 mark and continuing to decline, with a significant tightening amplitude of 0.278 in a week, resonating with the rise in European bond yields and the correction of risk assets [26]. 3.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.86 CNY [6][12]. Core Insights - The company's annual report performance met expectations, with a significant year-on-year increase in orders, driven by strong demand in the low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace sectors [2][12]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 709 million CNY in 2025, representing a 61.87% increase compared to the previous year, primarily due to a substantial rise in customer demand and order volume [12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 102 million CNY, a remarkable increase of 425.27% year-on-year, attributed to revenue growth and effective cost control [12]. - The company continues to implement a technology-leading strategy, enhancing its technical capabilities and expanding its market presence in traditional and emerging sectors [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 1,009 million CNY in 2026, 1,218 million CNY in 2027, and 1,455 million CNY in 2028, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.3% from 2025 to 2026 [4][12]. - The net profit forecast for 2026 is 170 million CNY, increasing to 201 million CNY in 2027 and 250 million CNY in 2028, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 7.3% in 2025 to 13.1% in 2028, indicating improved profitability [4][12]. Market Position and Trends - The company is focusing on high-reliability embedded computing solutions, with significant growth in its core product lines, including airborne and missile-borne systems [12]. - The report highlights the increasing demand in the commercial aerospace and drone markets as a key catalyst for future growth [4][12]. - The company has successfully participated in various projects within the low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace sectors, providing high-performance, cost-effective embedded computing products [12].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.83% as of midday trading [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 84.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,700 stocks rising [5] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical and lithium battery sectors experienced significant gains, while sectors such as photovoltaics, wind power, coal, ports, and banking showed weak performance [4] - The lithium mining sector saw notable activity, with stocks like Rongjie Co. hitting the daily limit, and other companies such as Tibet Mining and Ganfeng Lithium also rising due to a government ban on raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports from Zimbabwe [5] - The small metals sector continued to rise, with Yunnan Zinc Industry hitting the daily limit and other companies like Xianglu Tungsten and China Rare Earth following suit [5] Stock Movements - The market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.95%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.34%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.10% [9] - Notable individual stock movements included *ST Panda, which resumed trading and hit the daily limit down after completing relevant verification work [11] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil futures saw a decline of 2%, trading at $92.58 per barrel [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 56.57 [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 709 million in 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 61.87%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 102 million, up 425.27% year-over-year [1]. - The company is optimistic about its business expansion in emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and unmanned equipment, maintaining a strong growth momentum [1][3]. - The company has a robust order backlog of RMB 417 million as of December 31, 2025, with significant growth in new projects, indicating strong market recognition [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company's airborne business generated revenue of RMB 420 million, a year-over-year increase of 50.85%, with a gross margin of 51.65%, up 6.47 percentage points [2]. - The company’s overall gross margin for 2025 was 44.93%, remaining stable [2]. Business Expansion - The company has successfully expanded into the low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace sectors, with products involved in drone control systems and satellite payloads [3]. - The expansion into these emerging fields is expected to broaden the company's performance growth points and open up long-term growth potential [3]. Order and Project Development - The company has secured 189 new projects, leveraging advantages in new technologies and cost-effective solutions, which reflects strong customer recognition [4]. - Continuous development in new technologies has enhanced the company's core competitiveness in various technical directions [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for the company for 2026-2028 is RMB 168 million, RMB 220 million, and RMB 275 million, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 39.03% [5]. - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58 times for 2026, with an updated target price of RMB 56.57 [5].

Group 1 - The current market has reached a phase bottom, with limited downside potential, emphasizing the importance of structural positioning and allocation direction [1] - From a price perspective, many strong-performing sectors have retreated to the 3800-4000 point range of the Shanghai Composite Index, while sectors benefiting from energy prices and stable low volatility have seen smaller declines [3] - In terms of valuation, technology manufacturing remains relatively high, while cyclical products have significantly dropped to historically low levels [3] Group 2 - The focus should be on sectors with low valuations and strong profitability, such as food and beverage, home appliances, non-bank financials, agriculture, and basic chemicals [7] - The PEG perspective highlights sectors with cheap valuations (PE below 50% historical percentile) and stable earnings growth (net profit growth forecast above 20% for 2026), including non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals [4] - For sectors with high valuations but expected high growth, attention should be on new energy and electronics [4] Group 3 - Tesla's Optimus robot is entering a "school age," with formal mass production expected around mid-year, following a clear timeline for core component deliveries [6] - The production approval process (PPA) for suppliers is aligning with mass production timelines, indicating a shift from experimental prototypes to industrial-scale production [6] - Recent advancements in design and materials for the Optimus robot suggest readiness for complex operational deployment, with significant market sentiment shifts anticipated due to supportive policies for intelligent robotics [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock indices, the market opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.3% and returning above 3,900 points. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict may impact global energy supply, causing a sharp rise in crude oil and downstream industries. The Fed's hawkish stance and the increase in risk - aversion in the capital market may lead to a valuation decline in the previously strong technology sector of A - shares. It is recommended to balance the allocation of large - and small - cap indices for risk hedging [1] - For treasury bonds, the current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally bearish for the bond market. In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the oil price center has significantly shifted upwards, accelerating the expected recovery of domestic inflation data. Short - term trading will be mainly in a volatile adjustment, with long - term interest rates under more pressure and short - term rates relatively stable supported by the capital market [1][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.69% from 2,810.6 to 2,830.0; IF rose 1.40% from 4,388.4 to 4,450.0; IC rose 1.62% from 7,409.6 to 7,530.0; IM rose 1.22% from 7,387.2 to 7,477.4 [4] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1.01% from 2,830.9 to 2,859.5; the CSI 300 rose 1.40% from 4,474.7 to 4,537.5; the CSI 500 rose 2.24% from 7,597.4 to 7,767.7; the CSI 1000 rose 1.98% from 7,600.9 to 7,751.2 [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.01% from 102.48 to 102.49; TF fell 0.01% from 105.92 to 105.91; T fell 0.01% from 108.17 to 108.16; TL fell 0.05% from 111.24 to 111.18 [4] 3.2 Market News - The market opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,900 points. Green power, optical communication, computing power, and military industry sectors led the gains, while oil and gas stocks adjusted. Over 4,800 stocks rose, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion yuan [5] - In terms of sectors, power, optical communication, computing power, and military industry sectors had the highest increases, while oil and gas, photovoltaic equipment, and gas sectors declined slightly [5] - There were 4,615 rising stocks, 105 limit - up stocks, 521 falling stocks, 4 limit - down stocks, and 14 stocks breaking the limit - up, with a limit - breaking rate of 17% [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [7][8][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [14][15][17][19] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]

Market Overview - A-shares saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.30% to close at 3931.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.95% to 13801.00 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.01% to 3316.97 points [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 968 billion yuan compared to the previous day [3] Investor Sentiment - Global investor sentiment has been fluctuating due to concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions, particularly influenced by former President Trump's actions [4] - Recent developments indicate that both parties involved in the conflict have proposed agreement terms, suggesting a potential de-escalation, which positively impacted global markets, including A-shares [4] Sector Performance - Most sectors are undergoing a valuation recovery, with the exception of the energy (oil and gas, coal) and photovoltaic sectors, which experienced declines [5] - The military and power sectors continued their strong performance, contributing significantly to market gains, with approximately 4800 stocks rising and only about 580 declining [5] Financial Sector - The three major financial sectors—banking, insurance, and securities—recorded around 1% gains without any significant sell-off [6] - The banking sector showed initial adjustments but stabilized in the afternoon, providing crucial support for the index [6] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index experienced volatility, initially declining before recovering due to positive news from Alibaba and Meituan, which saw stock price increases of up to 15% and 6% respectively [6] - The article highlighted the impact of low-price competition in the food delivery sector on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a critical macroeconomic indicator [6] Company-Specific News - Pop Mart experienced a significant drop of approximately 23% in its stock price, attributed to market reactions to its underwhelming performance expectations and over-reliance on a single intellectual property [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.78% to close at 3881.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.43% to 13536.56 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.50% to 3251.55 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 20.962 trillion, a decrease of 352.3 billion compared to the previous day [2] External Influences - Former President Trump, known for his understanding of investor sentiment, released news aimed at alleviating market fears, which resulted in a significant drop in oil prices by 15% and volatility in U.S. stock index futures [3] - The overall market sentiment improved as the U.S. stock indices, despite closing down approximately 1.38%, showed signs of recovery, indicating a potential stabilization in global economic conditions [3] A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market showed signs of internal adjustment pressure, having risen from 3000 to 4200 points without significant corrections, with recent external events acting as a stress test [4] - The market exhibited a high open followed by a decline, reflecting investor uncertainty, but rebounded in the afternoon as external markets stabilized [4] - A total of 4943 stocks rose during the day, with only about 300 stocks declining, indicating a broadly positive market sentiment [4] Sector Performance - The banking sector provided strong support to the Shanghai Composite Index, while technology stocks also contributed positively [5] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed relatively weaker performance due to declines in key stocks such as Ningde Times and BYD, which pressured the ChiNext Index [5] - The oil and gas sector was the only one to experience significant declines, while military and power sectors showed notable gains [5] Capital Flow - The Hong Kong stock market indices outperformed the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indices, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by approximately 2.79% and 2.55%, respectively [5] - There was a notable shift in capital flow in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a net outflow of 27.3 billion, contrasting with the previous day's inflow of 28 to 29 billion [5] Trading Volume Insights - The overall trading volume decreased by about 300 billion compared to previous levels, raising questions about the involvement of stabilizing funds [6] - The trading volume for the CSI 300 ETF and the SSE 50 ETF showed increased activity towards the end of the trading day, supporting the upward movement of related indices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market bottomed out and rebounded throughout the day, with a significant divergence between the yellow and white lines, and the micro - cap stock index soared by over 5%. The expectation of the escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased, which may have a more profound impact on global energy supply, causing crude oil and its downstream industries to continue to rise sharply. The Fed maintained the interest rate level, and Powell's stance was hawkish. The dot - plot shows only one expected interest rate cut this year, increasing the risk - aversion sentiment in the capital market. In the medium term, if global technology stocks are affected by liquidity, the previously strong technology sectors in the A - share market may experience a valuation decline. It is recommended to allocate large - and small - cap indexes evenly for risk hedging [1] - The treasury bond futures closed with gains in some contracts and slight changes in others. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally negative for the bond market. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant increase in the oil price center, accelerating the expected pace of improvement in domestic inflation data. The market will be mainly in a state of shock adjustment, with long - term interest rates facing more significant pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable supported by the capital market [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market showed a significant divergence between large - cap and micro - cap stocks. The US - Iran conflict led to rising oil prices, and the Fed's hawkish stance increased risk - aversion sentiment. Global major stock indexes fell, and emerging markets had larger declines. In the medium term, the technology sector in the A - share market may face valuation adjustments. It is recommended to balance large - and small - cap index allocations [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net withdrawal of funds. The current environment is negative for the bond market. In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the bond market will be in shock adjustment, with long - term interest rates under more pressure and short - term rates relatively stable [1][3] 3.2 Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 24, 2026, compared with March 23, 2026, IH rose by 1.25%, IF by 1.01%, IC by 2.41%, IM by 2.74%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index by 1.38%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.28%, the CSI 500 Index by 2.11%, and the CSI 1000 Index by 2.59% [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On March 24, 2026, compared with March 23, 2026, TS fell by 0.02%, TF remained unchanged, T rose by 0.02%, and TL rose by 0.48% [4] 3.3 Market News - The A - share market bottomed out and rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.78% on light trading volume, and the micro - cap stock index rising by over 5%. Green power concept stocks were active, the military industry sector strengthened, and the lithium - battery sector rose. The oil and gas sector performed weakly. Most stocks rose, with nearly 5,200 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing higher, and the trading volume reaching 2.1 trillion [5] - In terms of sectors, the military industry, power, medical, and sports sectors led the gains, while only the oil and gas sector declined slightly [5] - There were 4,866 rising stocks, 1,000 limit - up stocks, 299 falling stocks, 8 limit - down stocks, and 22 stocks breaking the limit - up, with a limit - break rate of 21% [5] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, showing the price trends and basis changes of these contracts over time [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures contracts, reflecting the price trends and related spread changes of different - term treasury bond futures [14][15][18][21] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indexes, showing the exchange rate trends of different currencies [23][24][27]

Market Performance - On March 24, the A-share market experienced a significant rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.78%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.5%. The STAR Market Index surged by 3% [2] - The total number of stocks that rose reached 5,136, with 100 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 329 stocks declined [3] Stock Indexes and Trading Volume - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,881.28, up by 68.00 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,536.56, up by 191.04 points. The ChiNext Index ended at 1,639.06, up by 51.38 points [3] - The total trading volume for the day was approximately 2,096.07 billion, with a total transaction volume of 141,836.17 [4] Sector Performance - Green energy stocks were notably active, with Huadian Liaoning Energy achieving a seven-day limit up, and several other stocks like Huayin Power also hitting the limit up [5] - The military industry sector saw collective strength, with stocks like Changcheng Military Industry and Construction Industry reaching their daily limit up [6] - The lithium battery sector also experienced a surge, with stocks such as Rongjie Co. and Tibet City Investment hitting the limit up [8] Declining Stocks - Oil and gas stocks showed weaker performance, with notable declines in companies like Tongyuan Petroleum, which fell by 5.87%, and China Petroleum, which decreased by 2.84% [10] External Market Influence - The rebound in the A-share market appears to be correlated with overseas market performance, as the oil market saw an increase, although it slightly retreated in the afternoon. Additionally, U.S. stock futures were significantly up [9]