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《农产品》日报-2025-04-02
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-02 06:08
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: In the short - term, it may follow export benefits and rise to test the 9200 resistance level, but there is a risk of adjustment after stagnant growth. In the long - term, it is viewed with caution and bearishness [1]. - Soybean oil: Bio - diesel news boosts the CBOT soybean oil, but the large listing of Brazilian soybeans restricts its upward momentum. The domestic spot soybean oil basis remains under pressure [1]. Sugar - Raw sugar: It will fluctuate widely in the range of 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [3][4]. Cotton - The short - term domestic cotton price may operate in a range, with upward pressure and downward support, and attention should be paid to macro - level trends [5]. Eggs - The national egg price is expected to rise slightly next week and then stabilize, and may decline slightly later [8]. Meal - Soybean meal: It will maintain a short - term oscillation pattern, and the basis will continue to be weak. Rapeseed meal will mainly adjust weakly on the disk [10]. Corn - In the short - term, the market's bullish expectation weakens, and the disk gradually stabilizes. In the long - term, it may be supported to rise [12]. Pork - The futures price is supported to a certain extent by the logic of futures - cash convergence. An anti - spread strategy for the 7 - 11 contracts can be re - arranged [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On April 1, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8410 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from March 31. The futures price of Y2505 was 7992 yuan/ton, down 1.20%. The basis of Y2505 was 418 yuan/ton, up 1.44% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong on April 1 was 9710 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of P2505 was 9146 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The basis of P2505 was 564 yuan/ton, up 1.44%. The import profit in Guangzhou Port in May was - 558 yuan/ton, down 45.22% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on April 1 was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of O1505 was 9303 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The basis of O1505 was - 14 yuan/ton, down 435.71% [1]. Sugar - **Futures market**: On April 1, the futures price of sugar 2505 was 6129 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The futures price of sugar 2509 was 6022 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 19.36 cents per pound, up 2.71% [3]. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6200 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The spot price in Kunming was 6035 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 5192 yuan/ton, down 0.50% [3]. Cotton - **Futures market**: On April 1, the futures price of cotton 2505 was 13590 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The futures price of cotton 2509 was 13725 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 68.21 cents per pound, up 2.00% [5]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14605 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The CC Index of 3128B was 14864 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [5]. Eggs - The futures price of the egg 04 contract on April 1 was 3092 yuan/500KG, down 0.23%. The futures price of the egg 05 contract was 2962 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The egg - laying chicken chick price was 4.30 yuan per chick, unchanged [8]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu on April 1 was 3120 yuan/ton, down 0.95%. The futures price of M2505 was 2804 yuan/ton, down 1.65%. The basis of M2505 was 316 yuan/ton, up 5.69% [10]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu on April 1 was 2520 yuan/ton, down 1.56%. The futures price of RM2505 was 2520 yuan/ton, down 3.11%. The basis of RM2505 was 0 yuan/ton, up 100.00% [10]. Corn - **Corn**: On April 1, the futures price of corn 2505 was 2254 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The spot price in Jinzhou Port was 2180 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 74 yuan/ton, down 4.23% [12]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2505 on April 1 was 2626 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The spot price in Changchun was 2610 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 16 yuan/ton, up 15.79% [12]. Pork - **Futures market**: On April 1, the futures price of the main pork contract was 750 yuan/ton, down 3.23%. The futures price of the pork 2505 contract was 13240 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The futures price of the pork 2509 contract was 13930 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [16]. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Henan was 14680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong was 14830 yuan/ton, unchanged [16].