1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global sugar market is in a state of oversupply. Brazil has entered the off - season, while India and Thailand are likely to have a bumper sugar harvest. In the domestic market, the opening of sugar mills in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong has increased, leading to a seasonal supply pressure. Although there is a short - term consumption peak and a reduction in imported sugar, the overall sugar price is expected to be weak [3]. - The long - term supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cancellation of old broad - leaf pulp warehouse receipts and the increase in new warehouse receipt costs may drive up the bottom of the market. However, the current global supply of bleached softwood pulp is not tight, and the inventory of domestic and European ports is relatively high. The domestic pulp and paper industry has a low profit, and it is difficult to form a trend - upward market in the short term [3]. - The apple futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. The new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak value are lower than the previous year, which provides support, but the lack of consumption growth also restricts the upward movement [19]. - For cotton, the external market is at a low level, while the domestic market has a positive outlook. The long - term positive factors are strong, and the futures price is expected to move upward [19]. - The jujube futures price may show a short - term rebound. The reduction in production may be reflected in the far - month contracts, and investors can consider buying at low prices [19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800. The new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak value are lower than the previous year, but the lack of consumption growth restricts the upward movement [19]. - **Jujube 2605**: Consider short - term buying at low prices. The support range is 9000 - 9300, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800. The reduction in production may be reflected in the far - month contracts [19]. - **Sugar 2605**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The support range is 5000 - 5030, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330. The increase in sugar production in India and the domestic new - sugar listing increase the supply, but the reduction in imported sugar and the improvement in demand alleviate the supply pressure to some extent [19]. - **Pulp 2605**: Adopt an interval - long strategy. The support range is 5300 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5800. The upward movement of the futures price may face delivery pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited [19]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The support range is 3900 - 4000, and the pressure range is 4200 - 4300. The raw material price fluctuations affect the cost, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price is expected to move within a range [19]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14800 - 15000. The external market is at a low level, while the domestic market has a positive outlook, and the long - term positive factors are strong [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: In Shandong, the trading shifted from outside the warehouse to inside the warehouse. The cold - storage mainly traded 75 - 80 slice - red apples suitable for export and small - volume purchases of inferior and third - grade fruits. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage mainly sold low - quality and low - price apples. In the sales area, the arrival volume in the wholesale market increased compared with November, and the sales were stable [20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of last week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 16,108 tons, a week - on - week increase of 318 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 34.68%. The procurement in Xinjiang is approaching the end [23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of December 28, 2025, 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, an increase of 7 compared with the same period last year. All 73 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, a decrease of 1 compared with the same period last year. In November 2025, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [24]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In November 2025, the total import volume of pulp was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The export volume of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp was 1.6206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.0% [28]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the weekly increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand was still weak, and the overall inventory pressure increased. The operating rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [29]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In October 2025, the retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories in the United States increased by 5.72% year - on - year and 0.87% month - on - month. In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season, with a significant month - on - month decrease in import volume and value and a slight year - on - year increase [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9163 | - 84 | - 0.91% | | Jujube 2605 | 8970 | - 10 | - 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5253 | - 32 | - 0.61% | | Pulp 2605 | 5510 | - 120 | - 2.13% | | Cotton 2605 | 14435 | - 100 | - 0.69% | [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5360 | - 20 | - 670 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5550 | 0 | - 750 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15541 | 224 | 835 | [37] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary was found in the provided text, only relevant figure references such as Figure 16 (Apple May Basis), Figure 17 (Jujube Main Contract Basis), etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 1 - 5 | 424 | - 23 | 973 | Oscillatory decline | Wait - and - see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 130 | 270 | - 490 | Interval oscillation | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 12 | 3 | - 45 | Oscillatory fluctuation | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 35 | 5 | 65 | Interval fluctuation | Wait - and - see | [56] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary was found in the provided text, only relevant figure references such as Figure 29 (Top 20 Long Positions in Apple Futures), Figure 30 (Top 20 Short Positions in Apple Futures), etc. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 1171 | 79 | 46 | | Sugar | 5038 | 0 | - 5095 | | Pulp | 102980 | 2000 | - 231506 | | Cotton | 5085 | 232 | 2264 | [84] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary was found in the provided text, only relevant figure references such as Figure 53 (Apple Option Trading Volume), Figure 54 (Apple Option Open Interest), etc.

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided on report industry investment ratings. Group 2: Core Views of Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may continue to rise but face pressure at the end of the month and during the New Year holiday. Domestic palm oil futures may weaken again. US biodiesel policy may boost CBOT soybean oil, and domestic soybean oil fundamentals are positive but high crushing margins may limit price increases. Domestic rapeseed oil basis is strengthening due to positive news and tight supply [1]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose, constraining price rebounds. In China, demand is picking up with the approaching festivals, but ample supply may limit the upside of Zhengzhou sugar futures [2]. Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, the spot meal market is loose, but concerns about customs policies and low expected arrivals in January and February may support soybean meal prices [3]. Cotton - US cotton exports are strong, and it will maintain an oscillating trend. In China, supply pressure is easing, and cotton prices are expected to rise after breaking through key resistance levels [5]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, and seasonal demand is strong. The short - term futures market may show an oscillating and strengthening trend [9]. Corn - The corn market in Northeast and North China is quiet with stable prices. Demand is weak, and the market is in a stalemate. Attention should be paid to selling sentiment and policy releases [13]. Red Dates - The arrival of red dates in markets is lower than in previous years. The recent price rebound depends on consumption. It is recommended to hold short call options [16]. Apples - The apple consumption market is affected by substitutes, and only high - quality apples in Gansu are selling well. It is suggested to exit long positions [17]. Eggs - The egg supply is still relatively loose but is gradually easing. Demand may improve during festivals, and near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Spot Price**: Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8350 yuan, Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8490 yuan, and Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 9680 yuan [1]. - **Futures Price**: Y2605 soybean oil is 8044 yuan, P2605 palm oil is 8514 yuan, and OI605 rapeseed oil is 9361 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2601 is 5364 yuan/ton, Sugar 2605 is 5269 yuan/ton, and ICE raw sugar is 15.30 cents/pound [2]. - **Spot Market**: Nanning sugar is 5340 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar is 5240 yuan/ton [2]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu is 3100 yuan, M2605 futures price is 2760 yuan [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu is 2430 yuan, RM2605 futures price is 2352 yuan [3]. Cotton - **Futures Price**: Cotton 2605 is 14255 yuan/ton, and ICE US cotton is 64.20 cents/pound [5]. - **Spot Price**: Xinjiang arrival price (3128B) is 15086 yuan [5]. Live Pigs - **Futures Price**: Live pigs 2605 is 11975 yuan/ton, and Live pigs 2603 is 11460 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spot Price**: Henan is 11800 yuan/ton, Shandong is 11950 yuan/ton [8]. Corn - **Corn**: Corn 2603 is 2189 yuan/ton, Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2280 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 is 2484 yuan/ton, Changchun spot is 2570 yuan/ton [13]. Red Dates - **Futures Price**: Red dates 2605 (main contract) is 8905 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spot Price**: Cangzhou super - grade is 9560 yuan/ton [16]. Apples - **Futures Price**: Apple 2605 (main contract) is 9191 yuan/ton [17]. Eggs - **Futures Price**: Egg 01 contract is 3072 yuan/500KG, Egg 02 contract is 2946 yuan/500KG [19]. - **Spot Price**: Egg production area price is 2.87 yuan/jin [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports Group 2: Core Views of the Reports 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Trump's blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers may increase palm oil's attractiveness as a biofuel raw material. However, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in the first half of December, and BMD palm oil is likely to fluctuate. In China, palm oil lacks price - advantage in winter, and its basis has limited fluctuation space [1] - Soybean oil: US soybean exports to China are slower than expected, and South American soybeans may have a good harvest. CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate slightly. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, but the inventory may decrease due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, and the decline of the spot basis is limited [1] - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed prices are stable, but inventory in some areas is limited. The futures price has limited room for further decline, and the spot price and basis fluctuate slightly [1] 2. Apples - The current inventory depletion is slow, and the overall sales are weaker than last year. The price of farmers' apples is under pressure. The short - term market will trade the game between the "real shortage of high - quality delivery products" and the "overall inventory pressure" [6] 3. Red Dates - The support from spot sales and cost is weak. The futures price is weak, and the basis is strengthening. The overall market supply is relatively loose, and the 01 contract's entry into the delivery month has released some pressure. The future trend depends on market consumption [7] 4. Corn and Corn Starch - In the northeast, the bullish sentiment is shaken, and traders sell at high prices. In North China, the sales volume fluctuates with price. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises' inventory is increasing, while feed enterprises are mainly on the sidelines. The corn market is likely to be weak in the short term, but the decline space is limited [8] 5. Pigs - The spot price is stable, and the demand for curing meat around the Winter Solstice is increasing. The slaughter cycle of farmers is longer this year due to the late Spring Festival, and the market is slightly stronger. The 03 contract has limited upside but is supported at around 11,000 [12] 6. Meal Products - The price of US soybeans is weak. Brazilian soybeans will be listed soon, posing a competitive threat. The domestic soybean meal market is loose, and the 1 - 5 spread is difficult to rise further. The soybean meal price has limited downside but lacks upward momentum [16] 7. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production is in the late stage, which may support prices. Indian sugar production is abundant, restricting the rebound of raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar market is expected to be weak and volatile, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18] 8. Cotton - Internationally, US cotton sales are weak in late November. The weather in the main producing areas is dry, and the quality index is rising. Domestically, the supply pressure is gradually released, and the demand from spinning enterprises is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly but has limited upward momentum [19] 9. Eggs - The number of old hens and newly - laid hens is decreasing, but the supply of small - sized eggs is tight, and large - sized eggs are sufficient. The demand from food processing and catering industries is weak. The market is in a "supply - strong - demand - weak" pattern and is expected to be weak and volatile [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On December 19, compared with December 18, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the spot and futures markets all decreased to varying degrees [1] - **Inventory and Basis**: Palm oil inventory decreased last weekend and was lower than the five - year average. The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all changed to some extent [1] 2. Apples - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the apple 2605 contract increased, and the basis decreased. The arrival volume in some fruit markets decreased, and the national cold - storage inventory also decreased slightly [3] - **Regional Inventory**: The cold - storage inventory in six major apple - producing areas is provided, with Shandong having the largest inventory. The current inventory depletion is slow [6] 3. Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Data**: The prices of red date futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis of some grades changed. The inventory in Cangzhou showed different changes in warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [7] 4. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2603 contract increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The import profit increased, and the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased [8] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2603 contract decreased slightly, and the basis increased slightly. The spread between starch and corn decreased [8] 5. Pigs - **Futures Data**: The price of the pig 2605 contract increased, and the basis decreased. The spread between the 3 - 5 contracts decreased [12] - **Spot Data**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, the daily slaughter volume increased, and the breeding profit increased [12] 6. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal remained unchanged, and the futures price decreased slightly. The basis increased, and the Brazilian import crushing profit increased [16] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot and futures prices of rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis decreased. The Canadian import crushing profit decreased [16] - **Soybeans**: The prices of domestic and imported soybeans changed slightly, and the basis and warehouse receipts also changed [16] 7. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Data**: The prices of domestic sugar futures contracts decreased, and the ICE raw sugar price increased. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis changed [18] - **Industry Data**: The production and sales of sugar in China and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, and the import volume increased [18] 8. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Data**: The prices of cotton futures contracts increased, and the basis decreased. The ICE US cotton price increased slightly [19] - **Industry Data**: The inventory in Xinjiang and the import volume increased, and the export volume of textile products increased [19] 9. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the egg 01 contract increased, and the 02 contract decreased. The spot price of eggs increased slightly, and the basis increased [21] - **Related Indexes**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged, and the breeding profit decreased [21]

Core Insights - The recent Winter Trade Fair in Hainan showcased the strong demand for tropical agricultural products, with many exhibits sold out before the event concluded, highlighting the appeal of China's agricultural exports supported by the Hainan Free Trade Port policy [1] - In the first ten months of this year, China's agricultural exports reached nearly 600 billion yuan, covering 838 product categories and reaching 223 countries and regions, indicating a robust growth in export scale, product diversity, and market coverage [1][2] Group 1 - The Winter Trade Fair featured Thailand and Pakistan as guest countries, attracting participation from 16 countries and over 100 international trade enterprises [1] - Agricultural products from China, such as coffee from Yunnan and fresh corn from Jilin, are becoming popular overseas, demonstrating their adaptability to different regional tastes and high international market standards [1] - The export of agricultural products is a significant contributor to stabilizing foreign trade and benefiting people's livelihoods in China [1] Group 2 - China's agricultural export surge is supported by its diverse natural resources, with unique products from various regions forming a competitive edge [2] - The modernization of agricultural production, including advanced breeding and processing technologies, has improved product quality, exemplified by the high sugar-acid ratio of Fujian honey pomelo entering the high-end international market [2] - The growth of cross-border e-commerce has created new channels for agricultural exports, allowing young farmers to sell products like lychee directly to overseas markets [2] - The agricultural export performance reflects China's efforts to stabilize its foreign trade and expand its market reach, with the Yellow River basin contributing 178.1 billion yuan in agricultural exports in the first ten months of this year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The m2605 soybean meal contract is in a stage of fluctuating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The foreign market shows that the tight fundamentals of US soybeans in the new year still support the price of CBOT soybeans, but the expected high - yield of South American new crops suppresses its price. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient before the end of the year, and the supply gap in the first quarter is expected to be limited. The demand from the downstream feed and aquaculture industry still provides support, and the spot basis is expected to strengthen gradually with inventory digestion [3]. - The RM605 rapeseed meal contract is also in a stage of fluctuating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. Globally, the supply - demand pattern of rapeseed in 2025/26 is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In the domestic market, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed increases the import cost, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to tighten. However, the off - season of downstream aquaculture and the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are not conducive to the substitution consumption of rapeseed meal [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The recent continuous purchase of US soybeans by China and the limited guidance of the December USDA report suggest that the CBOT is expected to operate in the range of 1100 - 1150 cents. The USDA report shows that the estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 remains unchanged from November, and the production forecasts of Argentina and Brazil are also maintained. The US soybean price was weakly volatile this week, supported by China's purchase and affected by the neutral - bearish USDA report and the expected high - yield in South America [15][16]. - As of the week ending December 05, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.45 dollars per bushel, a 2.00% decrease from the previous week and a 13.95% increase from the same period last year. As of November 13, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 80.66 tons, and the export shipment was 155.28 tons, a 67% increase from the previous week and a 24% increase from the four - week average [17]. 3.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazil's soybean sowing is nearing completion, with a sowing progress of 90.3% as of December 6. Argentina's sowing progress is 4.7%, lagging behind last year by 53.8%. The La Nina phenomenon has appeared, and the expected precipitation in Argentina in the next two weeks is decreasing. The export volume of Brazilian soybeans in December is expected to reach 333 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal is expected to reach 188 tons [31][32][33]. - CONAB expects Brazil's soybean production in 2025/26 to reach 1.771238 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 561.31 tons or 3.3%, and the sowing area to reach 4893.56 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 158.95 million hectares or 3.4% [33]. 3.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The estimated yield of new Canadian rapeseed has further increased, and the export pressure persists, leading to a continued weakening of international rapeseed prices. In 2025/26, the global rapeseed production increased by 300 tons month - on - month and 2027 tons year - on - year, with a growth rate of 10.7%, mainly due to the yield increase in Canada and the EU. The global rapeseed inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio have reached recent highs [63][64]. - As of November 23, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed decreased by 65% from the previous week to 9.95 tons. From August 1 to November 23, 2025, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 192.84 tons, a 47.8% decrease from the same period last year. The commercial inventory of Canadian rapeseed was 137.43 tons [64]. 3.4 Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - In the short term, the state - reserve release rhythm affects market sentiment, but the near - term supply pressure limits the upward space of the market. The far - month contracts are still trading on the expectations of high - yield in South America and US soybean demand. China imported 810.7 tons of soybeans in November 2025, a decrease of 137.30 tons from October and a 13.32% increase from November 2024. In 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans from January to November was 10378.14 tons, a 6.89% increase year - on - year [76][77]. - The estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills in December 2025 is 904.8 tons, 800 tons in January 2026, and 400 tons in February. The estimated arrival of imported rapeseed at coastal areas in December 2025 is 12 tons, and the same amount is expected in January and February 2026 [78]. 3.5 Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Startup Rate - This week, the startup rate of oil mills continued to decline, and rapeseed pressing basically stopped. As of December 5, the actual soybean pressing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 205.58 tons, a decrease of 14.50 tons from the previous week and 8.98 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual startup rate was 66.55%. The estimated pressing volume in the 50th week (December 6 - 12) is 221.16 tons, and the estimated startup rate is 60.84% [93][94]. - The rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons this week, with a startup rate of 0%. The estimated rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills next week is 0 tons, and the estimated startup rate is 0% [94]. 3.6 Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans shows different trends for different origins and shipping periods. The soybean crushing profit also varies by contract and origin. The import cost and freight of soybeans from different regions such as Argentina, the US West Coast, the US Gulf Coast, and Brazil are presented in the report, and the data is updated daily [100][105]. - The import cost of Canadian rapeseed and the pressing profit of rapeseed are also provided, with daily - updated data [107]. 3.7 Inventory - The inventory of soybean meal at major national oil mills has slightly decreased, but the overall inventory pressure still needs to be digested. The rapeseed inventory has continued to decline. As of December 5, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 715.52 tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and a 30.80% increase from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 116.19 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week and a 70.74% increase from the same period last year [107][108]. - The rapeseed inventory at major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country totaled 47.08 tons, a decrease of 2.96 tons from the previous week [108]. 3.8 Downstream Demand - The downstream procurement and sales have warmed up, with spot purchases mainly driven by rigid demand, and the far - month basis has seen some trading volume. As of December 11, the total national soybean meal trading volume was 33.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22.73 tons. The spot trading volume was 3.45 tons, and the far - month basis trading volume was 58.09 tons. The total soybean meal pick - up volume was 96.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.93 tons [122][123]. - The monthly feed production and prices of livestock and poultry feed, as well as the prices and breeding profits of livestock and poultry, are presented in the report, showing the downstream demand situation [128][134]. 3.9 Basis and Spread - The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and contracts is provided. The average spot - futures price difference in coastal main markets this week was 290 - 340 yuan per ton, an increase of 103 - 133 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of December 12, the basis of the May soybean meal contract in Rizhao was 305 yuan per ton, and the basis of the May rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 158 yuan per ton [143]. - The month - to - month and variety spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the spreads between the January, May, and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, are also presented in the report [174].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face further downward pressure due to bearish fundamentals, and there is a risk of a new round of selling in Malaysian palm oil. Dalian palm oil futures are expected to continue to weaken. - CBOT soybeans are in a rebound after overselling, and domestic soybean oil is supported by high - cost imports despite sufficient supply and weak demand [1]. Meal - The market has priced in China's procurement expectations, and the supply - demand of US soybeans remains loose. South American new - crop soybeans have a good planting progress, and the supply pressure continues to be released. Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [2]. Corn - Corn prices are affected by the rhythm of supply. In the short - term, the futures price is strong due to supply - demand mismatch and firm spot prices, but the subsequent selling pressure may limit the increase [5]. Pork - The supply of pigs continues to recover, and the overall supply remains abundant. Although local demand is supported by pickling in the southwest, the spot price is not optimistic. Pig prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [10]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. The listing of new sugar in Guangxi has led the futures price to weaken, and the market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation this week [13]. Cotton - Internationally, the global cotton supply is in a loose pattern. Domestically, the high production of Xinjiang cotton brings hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient demand support the cotton price. In the short - term, cotton prices may oscillate within a range [14]. Eggs - The demand for eggs is weak, and there is a risk of price decline in some areas. However, prices are near the feed cost line, and the decline space is limited. Egg prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices and Basis**: Compared with November 21, on November 24, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 1 soybean oil increased by 20 yuan to 8490 yuan; the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 22 yuan to 8168 yuan; the basis increased by 42 yuan to 322 yuan. For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree decreased by 40 yuan to 8430 yuan; the futures price of P2601 decreased by 64 yuan to 8486 yuan; the basis increased by 24 yuan to - 56 yuan. For rapeseed oil, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 3 increased by 20 yuan to 10190 yuan; the futures price of OI601 decreased by 38 yuan to 9778 yuan; the basis increased by 58 yuan to 412 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 206 yuan; the palm oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 28 yuan to - 90 yuan; the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 35 yuan to 356 yuan [1]. Meal - **Prices and Basis**: On November 25, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained at 3000 yuan; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 1 yuan to 3011 yuan; the basis increased by 1 yuan to - 11 yuan. For rapeseed meal, the spot price of Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2440 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 increased by 12 yuan to 2446 yuan; the basis increased by 5 yuan to - 6 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread decreased by 13 yuan to 196 yuan; the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread decreased by 3 yuan to 61 yuan [2]. Corn - **Prices and Indexes**: On November 25, the futures price of Corn 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 2220 yuan; the basis increased by 5 yuan to 30 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13 yuan to - 44 yuan. For corn starch, the futures price of Corn Starch 2601 increased by 23 yuan to 2535 yuan; the basis decreased by 23 yuan to 25 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 yuan to - 64 yuan [5]. Pork - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The basis of the main contract decreased by 200 yuan to 150 yuan; the futures price of Live Hogs 2605 increased by 65 yuan to 11925 yuan; the futures price of Live Hogs 2601 increased by 50 yuan to 11400 yuan. Spot prices fluctuated in different regions [10]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 1173 to 205889; the weekly piglet price increased by 0.3 yuan to 17.5 yuan per kilogram; the monthly number of fertile sows decreased by 30,000 to 40.35 million [10]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On November 25, the futures price of Sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5370 yuan; the basis of Nanning decreased by 47 yuan to 131 yuan; the basis of Kunming decreased by 47 yuan to 121 yuan [13]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1.11621 billion tons; the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 88 million tons to 1.048 billion tons; the national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 47.79 million tons to 68.21 million tons [13]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price of Cotton 2605 increased by 82 yuan to 13530 yuan; the futures price of Cotton 2601 increased by 125 yuan to 13585 yuan; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan to - 55 yuan [14]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory increased by 70.91 million tons to 363.97 million tons; the industrial inventory increased by 4.32 million tons to 93.14 million tons; the import volume decreased by 1 million tons to 9 million tons [14]. Eggs - **Prices and Indexes**: The futures price of Egg 12 - contract increased by 16 yuan to 2950 yuan per 500 kg; the futures price of Egg 01 - contract decreased by 26 yuan to 3184 yuan per 500 kg; the basis increased by 43 yuan to - 302 yuan per 500 kg [17]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.7 yuan per chick; the price of culled chickens decreased by 0.16 yuan to 3.88 yuan per catty; the egg - feed ratio increased by 0.06 to 2.4 [17].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The reported third quarter earnings per share (EPS) was $0.86 compared to $1.56 in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant decline [10] - Adjusted EPS was $2.27 in the third quarter versus $2.29 in the prior year, indicating a slight decrease [10] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $924 million in the quarter compared to $559 million last year, showing strong operational performance [10][11] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 2.2 times at the end of the third quarter, reflecting the impact of acquisition debt from Viterra [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Soybean processing and refining results improved across all regions due to higher margins and the addition of Viterra's South American assets [10][11] - Softseed processing and refining results were driven by higher average margins and the addition of Viterra's softseed capabilities [11] - Grain merchandising and milling saw higher results in wheat milling and ocean freight, partially offset by lower results in global wheat and corn merchandising [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, higher processing results were offset by lower results in refining, while in South America, results were higher in processing and refining [10][11] - European processing results improved, particularly in biodiesel, while refining results were slightly down [11] - The global supply and demand environment has become less volatile, contributing to improved performance [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating Viterra and leveraging the combined platform to enhance operational efficiency and capture synergies [4][6] - The strategic alignment along the end-to-end value chain operating model aims to improve agility, transparency, and collaboration [4][6] - The company anticipates capturing significant synergies from the Viterra integration, with expectations for a meaningful impact in 2026 [39][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a high degree of complexity in the marketplace, with farmers and end consumers remaining largely spot [21] - The company expects full year 2025 adjusted EPS in the range of $7.30-$7.60, reflecting ongoing macro trade and biofuel policy uncertainty [7][20] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt to shifting trade flows and maintain operational efficiency [21][22] Other Important Information - The company generated approximately $1.2 billion of adjusted funds from operations year-to-date, with $900 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [15] - The company repurchased 6.7 million shares for $545 million, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [16][70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarity on biofuel policy and soybean oil margins - Management expects clarity on the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) by year-end or early next year, with improvements in soybean oil margins anticipated by early 2026 [25][27] Question: Stability of earnings in the new combined grain business - The combined grain business offers more stability in earnings due to enhanced storage capabilities and origination strengths from Viterra [28][30] Question: Impact of Viterra on EPS and EBIT - Viterra's integration is expected to be mildly dilutive to EPS for the year, but early indications show strong contributions from both legacy Bunge and Viterra operations [33][36] Question: Timing of synergy capture from Viterra - Significant synergy capture is expected in 2026, with some benefits anticipated in Q4 2025 [39][40] Question: Opportunities and risks in Argentina post-Viterra - The company is now more balanced globally, allowing it to mitigate risks associated with Argentina's volatility while capitalizing on its origination and processing capabilities [79] Question: Supply and demand dynamics in Australia - A large crop is expected in Australia, with opportunities for increased exports and competitive positioning in global markets [86][88] Question: Future capital projects and investment opportunities - The company does not foresee large capital projects from Viterra but will continue to evaluate opportunities for growth and consolidation in the industry [95][96]

Business Performance and Strategy - Viterra的整合进展顺利[10] - 公司调整了业务分部，以更好地反映其运营方式，并提高主要业务驱动因素的透明度[10, 14] - 团队在第三季度表现良好[10] - 行业趋势发展良好，但当前形势继续受到宏观、贸易和生物燃料政策不确定性的影响[10] Segment Reporting Changes - 从2025年第三季度开始，分部结构进行了调整，以符合端到端价值链方法，并提高商品类型的透明度[13, 14] - 新的分部结构包括：大豆加工和精炼、软籽加工和精炼、其他油籽加工和精炼、谷物贸易和制粉[14, 15, 16, 17] - 体积重塑与新的分部报告结构以及主要的收入生成活动相一致[19] - 新的报告结构提高了油籽加工、精炼和商品交易量的可见性[19] Financial Outlook - 公司调整了2025财年的展望，以反映与Viterra的合并，包括作为交易一部分发行的股票，减去第三季度回购的股票[22] - 预计2025年全年调整后每股收益将在730美元至760美元之间[21, 22] - 预计2025年下半年调整后每股收益将在400美元至425美元之间[21, 22] - 预计加权平均股数约为1.66亿股，下半年约为1.97亿股[21]

Group 1: Oilseed Market Trends - The main contracts for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil saw significant price increases, with rapeseed meal rising over 5% and rapeseed oil exceeding 6%, reaching a high of 10,333 yuan/ton, the highest since January 2023 [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a temporary anti-dumping measure on imported rapeseed from Canada, requiring importers to pay a deposit of 75.8% starting August 14 [1][3] - The decision is expected to have a profound impact on the domestic oilseed market, as over 90% of China's rapeseed and 75% of rapeseed meal are imported from Canada [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - Despite the anti-dumping measures, Canada remains a major supplier, with imports from September 2024 to June 2025 projected at 4.7093 million tons, accounting for 96.72% of total imports [3] - The forecasted import volumes for July and August are significantly lower than the previous year, with July estimated at 130,000 tons and August at 195,000 tons, a 50% decrease year-on-year [3] - Analysts suggest that the current import costs may not cover the processing margins, leading to a potential supply gap in the market [3][4] Group 3: Broader Agricultural Market Context - The international relations and supply dynamics make it challenging to short-sell oilseeds, with a preference for buying on dips [4] - The price of Malaysian palm oil has also increased, with offshore prices reaching $1,087.5, reflecting a broader trend in oilseed pricing [4] - The U.S. has expressed a desire for China to triple its soybean purchases, which could significantly impact trade balances, although China's reliance on U.S. soybeans has decreased over the years [6][7] Group 4: Soybean Import Statistics - In 2022, China imported 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. and 74.65 million tons from Brazil, with 2023's first half showing a total import of 49.37 million tons, a slight increase from the previous year [7] - The market share of U.S. soybeans in China has dropped from 40% to 18% over the past eight years, while Brazil's share has risen from 35% to over 65% [6][7] - The domestic soybean self-sufficiency rate has increased to 18%, indicating a diversification in agricultural supply chains [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures are likely to gradually rise, with the domestic palm oil following the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil. The key level for the domestic palm oil market is 9,000 yuan. - For soybean oil, international oil prices enhance its attractiveness in biodiesel, but CBOT soybeans may drag down CBOT soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil prices are expected to rise after August [1]. 2. Meal - US soybeans remain weak, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising. However, the supply after October is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2]. 3. Livestock (Pigs) - The pig market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Spot prices are expected to remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract has strong upward pressure. The far - month contract is affected by policies, and short - selling is not recommended [5]. 4. Corn - In the short term, the corn market is relatively stable, and the price will fluctuate. In the medium to long term, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and relatively loose in the fourth quarter [8]. 5. Sugar - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but a bearish view is maintained overall. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is expected to be marginally loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12]. 6. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and the price will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. 7. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. Some areas may see a decline in egg prices next week, but the spot price still has some upward space [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 30, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,420 yuan, up 0.60% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 8,240 yuan, up 0.17%. The warehouse receipts decreased by 35.07% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan on July 30, up 0.78%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,970 yuan, up 0.13%. The basis difference increased by 116.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680 yuan on July 30, up 0.94%. The futures price of O1509 was 9,621 yuan, up 1.36% [1]. 2. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,890 yuan on July 30, up 1.40%. The futures price of M2509 was 3,010 yuan, up 0.91%. The warehouse receipts decreased by 36.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,620 yuan on July 30, up 3.56%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,735 yuan, up 2.82% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,153 yuan, up 0.22% [2]. 3. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The price of the main contract decreased by 500.00%. The price of the 2511 contract was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%, and the 2509 contract was 14,150 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [5]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 13,880 yuan, down 200.0 yuan. The slaughter volume increased by 0.61%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 31.61% [5]. 4. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of the 2509 contract was 2,312 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.43%. The basis difference decreased by 20.83%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8.05% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of the 2509 contract was 2,683 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.64%. The basis difference decreased by 121.43%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 24.29% [8]. 5. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,667 yuan/ton on July 30, down 1.13%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,804 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The ICE raw sugar price decreased by 0.60% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning remained at 6,050 yuan. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) increased by 0.87%, and the price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.89% [12]. 6. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,755 yuan/ton on July 30, down 1.22%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,905 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The ICE cotton price decreased by 0.24% [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,343 yuan, down 0.57%. The commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% [14]. 7. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,570 yuan/500KG on July 30, down 0.17%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,271 yuan/500KG, down 2.33% [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price remained at 3.20 yuan/jin. The egg - to - feed ratio increased by 6.64%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.53% [16][18]