转债市场日度跟踪 20250709 市场概况：今日转债缩量下跌，估值环比压缩 债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.25%、上证综指环比下降 0.13%、深证成 指环比下降 0.06%、创业板指环比上涨 0.16%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.26%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.27%。 市场风格：小盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.23%、大盘价值环比下降 0.13%、中盘成长环比下降 0.60%、中盘价值环比下降 0.17%、小盘成长环比 下降 0.32%、小盘价值环比下降 0.01%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 679.72 亿元，环比 减少 9.64%；万得全 A 总成交额为 15274.20 亿元，环比增长 3.58%；沪深两 市主力净流出 285.94 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.02bp 至 1.64%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 123.61 元，环比昨日下降 0.24%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 165.61 元，环比 下降 1.49%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 ...

国家税务总局青海省税务局税收数据显示，去年5月—今年5月，大规模设备更新政策实施重点领域经营 主体设备更新加快，生产稳中有升；消费品以旧换新政策落地见效明显，消费市场信心稳步增强。 增值税发票数据显示，去年5月—今年5月，青海省家电产品消费"升温"，冰箱等日用家电零售业、电视 机等家用视听设备零售业开票销售收入同比分别增长1.1倍、36.6%；家居产品特别是智能家居产品消费 走高，家具、卫生洁具零售业开票销售收入同比分别增长55.4%、27.1%，其中扫地机器人等智能家电 开票销售收入同比增长3.9倍；汽车以旧换新需求持续释放，全省新车零售开票销售金额同比增长 11.8%。消费品以旧换新政策带动一年来全省零售业开票销售收入同比增长4.8%，快于全省平均增速9.7 个百分点，消费促进经济内循环和实现高质量发展的重要引擎作用不断显现。(林浩索南尼玛韩世峰) 增值税发票数据显示：去年5月—今年5月，青海省有色、钢铁行业采购机械设备取得发票金额同比分别 增长2.8倍、92.1%；信息传输软件和信息技术服务业、科学研究和技术服务业采购设备取得发票金额同 比分别增长14.9%、36.4%；农林牧渔业采购农机设备取得发票金 ...

- The industry mainline model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator to identify leading industries. The construction process involves calculating the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days' returns for 29 primary industry indices, normalizing the rankings, and averaging them to derive the final RSI value. Industries with RSI > 90% by April are likely to lead the market for the year[11][13][14] - The industry rotation model is based on the "Prosperity-Trend-Crowdedness" framework. It includes two sub-models: the industry prosperity model (high prosperity + strong trend, avoiding high crowdedness) and the industry trend model (strong trend + low crowdedness, avoiding low prosperity). Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 14.4%, IR of 1.56, and a maximum drawdown of -7.4%[16][18][22] - The left-side inventory reversal model focuses on industries with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking. It identifies sectors undergoing a rebound from current or past difficulties. Historical backtesting shows absolute returns of 25.9% in 2024 and excess returns of 14.8% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[28][30][29] - The industry ETF allocation model applies the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework to ETFs. It achieves annualized excess returns of 15.5% against the CSI 800 benchmark, with an IR of 1.81. The model's excess returns were 6.0% in 2023, 5.3% in 2024, and 7.7% in 2025[22][27][16] - The industry prosperity stock selection model combines industry weights from the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework with PB-ROE scoring to select high-value stocks within industries. Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 20.0%, IR of 1.72, and a maximum drawdown of -15.4%[23][26][16] - The industry prosperity-trend model achieved excess returns of 3.9% in 2025, while the inventory reversal model showed absolute returns of 1.3% and excess returns of -2.1% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[16][28][30]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13% on July 9, with 17 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by Media and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, which increased by 1.35% and 0.65% respectively [2] - The sectors with the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals and Basic Chemicals, which dropped by 2.26% and 0.85% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 38.536 billion yuan, with only three sectors experiencing net inflows: Media (1.055 billion yuan), Retail (864 million yuan), and Construction Decoration (40.34 million yuan) [2] - The Electronic sector saw the largest net outflow, amounting to 7.789 billion yuan, followed by Non-ferrous Metals with 5.412 billion yuan [2] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector rose by 0.65% despite a net capital outflow of 437 million yuan [3] - Out of 103 stocks in this sector, 40 stocks increased, with one hitting the daily limit, while 55 stocks declined [3] - The top three stocks with net inflows were Xinwufeng (31.4665 million yuan), Haida Group (28.3706 million yuan), and Juxing Agriculture (21.9941 million yuan) [3][4] Top Gainers and Losers in Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - **Top Gainers**: - Xinwufeng: +0.65%, 4.20% turnover, 31.4665 million yuan inflow [4] - Juxing Agriculture: +0.76%, 4.49% turnover, 21.9941 million yuan inflow [4] - **Top Losers**: - Muyuan Foods: -3.27%, 1.81% turnover, 71.5922 million yuan outflow [5] - Guolian Aquatic Products: -1.76%, 8.74% turnover, 45.2607 million yuan outflow [5]

Group 1 - A-shares have shown a structural market characteristic, with strong performance in consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and retail, as well as certain technology sectors like AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][4] - The top five performing industries in A-shares include agriculture, media, food and beverage, electrical equipment, and retail, indicating a growing interest in agricultural assets and a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The bottom five performing industries in A-shares are electronics, steel, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and storage chips, with the decline in non-ferrous metals linked to proposed US tariffs on copper [2] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector has seen a rise due to active innovative drug concepts, despite potential US tariffs on pharmaceuticals [3] - The top three performing industries in Hong Kong include healthcare, industrial, and energy, while the bottom three are materials, information technology, and real estate, reflecting external pressures from US tariff policies and global tech supply-demand imbalances [3] - The current market characteristics indicate that A-shares are driven by policy and sectoral improvements, while Hong Kong stocks are more influenced by external factors such as US tariffs and global technology cycles [4] Group 3 - Short-term market hotspots are concentrated around policy-driven sectors and improving industry conditions, with a focus on performance in the upcoming earnings reports [4] - The breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points is expected to further boost market confidence, with potential policy signals from the July Politburo meeting influencing capital flows [4]

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | 1.15 | 345.14 | 25.12 | 中文在线 | 13.36 | | 农林牧渔 | 1.12 | 131.51 | 36.80 | 国投中鲁 | 10.03 | | 银行 | 1.09 | 195.31 | 0.73 | 渝农商行 | 3.30 | | 食品饮料 | 0.86 | 185.68 | 41.90 | 交大昂立 | 10.02 | | 美容护理 | 0.84 | 41.86 | -10.10 | 上海家化 | 4.01 | | 电力设备 | 0.82 | 949.96 | 7.88 | 新特电气 | 19.97 | | 建筑装饰 | 0.80 | 154.49 | 23.58 | 新城市 | 12.97 | | 石油石化 | 0.78 | 59.31 | 28.56 | *ST新潮 | 5.04 | | 商贸零售 | 0.64 | 144.70 | 29.31 | 赫美集团 | 10.1 ...

沪指站上3500点。 A股市场今天（7月9日）上午整体上行，主要指数盘中不同程度上涨，其中上证指数时隔8个月重返3500点，引起市场广 泛关注。 港股市场上午整体走低，恒生指数盘中跌破24000点整数关口。 国内期货市场方面，多晶硅期货主力合约暴涨，盘中涨幅一度超过6%。 沪指时隔8个月重返3500点 A股市场今天上午整体上行，主要指数盘中不同程度上涨。 上证指数盘中突破3500点，盘中最高至3512.67点，这是时隔8个月上证指数重新回到3500点之上，上一次上证指数盘中 在3500点之上还是2024年11月8日，当天盘中上证指数最高至3509.82点。 创业板指数进一步上行，盘中涨超1%，突破2200点整数关口。 行业板块和赛道方面，若按照申万一级行业划分，传媒、电力设备、食品饮料、农林牧渔、美容护理等板块涨幅居前，有 色金属、钢铁、基础化工等板块领跌。 概念板块方面，短剧游戏概念板块领涨，板块盘中涨幅超过2%，欢瑞世纪、掌阅科技等多股盘中涨停。 个股方面，又有多股连续涨停，相关公司普遍提示风险。 比如国投中鲁连续第3个交易日盘中涨停。 国投中鲁昨晚发布公告称， 正在筹划通过发行股份方式向国家开发投资集团 ...

7月7日沪指上涨0.02%，市场两融余额为18593.80亿元，较前一交易日增加64.53亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至7月7日，沪市两融余额9380.08亿元，较前一交易日增加32.00亿元；深 市两融余额9154.61亿元，较前一交易日增加32.07亿元；北交所两融余额59.11亿元，较前一交易日增加 0.46亿元；深沪北两融余额合计18593.80亿元，较前一交易日增加64.53亿元。 分行业看，申万所属行业中，融资余额增加的行业有20个，增加金额最多的行业是医药生物，融资余额 增加13.40亿元；其次是电子、计算机行业，融资余额分别增加9.94亿元、9.12亿元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有1928只，占比52.36%，其中，280股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是基康仪器，该股最新融资余额1526.53万元，较前一交易日增幅达68.97%；股 价表现上，该股当日上涨1.35%，表现强于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有中设咨询、康农种业，融资 余额增幅分别为59.90%、58.79%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股中，从市场表现来看，平均上涨2.10%，涨幅居前的有家联科技、 ...

Group 1: Institutional Research Highlights - The top twenty companies with the most institutional research in the past 30 days include Ice Wheel Environment, Boshi Jie's, Jun Ding Da, Huichuan Technology, and Dazhu Laser[5] - In the last five days, the most researched companies include Hu Dian Co., Guilin Sanjin, Ice Wheel Environment, Mankalon, and Xingrong Environment[5] - Among the top twenty companies in the past 30 days, five had ten or more rating agencies, namely Ice Wheel Environment, Boshi Jie's, Jun Ding Da, Huichuan Technology, and Dazhu Laser[5] Group 2: Shareholder Increase and Buyback Situations - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, two companies announced significant shareholder increases, both having ten or more rating agencies: Renfu Pharmaceutical and Suzhou Bank[7] - From January 1 to July 4, 2025, 234 companies announced shareholder increases, with 64 having ten or more rating agencies[24] - In the same period, 288 companies announced buyback progress, with 78 having ten or more rating agencies, including Xiamen Xiangyu, Huafa Shares, Changhong Meiling, Pingmei Shares, and Mengbaihe[28] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Recommendations - The average expected buyback amount as a percentage of the market value on the announcement date exceeded 1% for companies like Xiamen Xiangyu (6.42%), Huafa Shares (3.21%), and Changhong Meiling (3.03%)[29] - For the year 2025, 1,573 companies announced buyback progress, with 345 having ten or more rating agencies, and 93 companies had a buyback amount exceeding 1% of their market value[30]

行业周报 | 北交所 IPO 扩容提速，关注稀缺、景气、低估三条主线 北交所市场周报——250630-250704 核心结论 北交所市场复盘：当周北交所全部 A 股日均成交额达 279.8 亿元，环比下跌 17.8%。当周北证 50 收跌 1.7%，当周日均换手率达 3.1%。当周涨幅前五 大个股分别为：云创数据（42.4%）、广道数字（29.9%）、灿能电力（13.2%）、 百甲科技（12.5%）、远航精密（12.2%）；跌幅前五大个股分别为：国源科 技（11.7%）、雅葆轩（-10.5%）、长虹能源（-10.5%）、天马新材（-9.4%）、 灵鸽科技（-9.3%）。 重点新闻及政策：1）三部门发布境外投资者以分配利润直接投资税收抵免 政策：财政部等三部门发布公告，2025 至 2028 年境外投资者以中国境内居 民企业分配的利润用于境内符合条件的直接投资，可按投资额的 10%抵免当 年应纳税额。2）证监会：始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首要任务，推 动健全常态化稳市机制安排: 中国证监会召开会议，深入学习习近平同志在 福建的金融论述，部署资本市场落实举措，强调维护市场稳定，推动健全常 态化稳市机制，统筹改 ...