国家统计局最新数据显示，今年前4个月，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）同比增长5.8%。 国家统计局投资司首席统计师罗毅飞称，这一增速比全部投资高1.8个百分点；对全部投资增长的贡献率为32.6%，比一季度提 高2.3个百分点。其中，水利管理业投资增长30.7%，水上运输业投资增长26.9%，航空运输业投资增长13.9%。 根据粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒测算，如果包含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，今年前4个月广义基础设施投资同比增 长10.9%，明显高于同期固定资产投资增速（4%）。 多位接受第一财经采访的专家认为，今年以来基建投资保持较快增长，得益于地方政府专项债券等资金到位较快，地方加大力 度推动重大项目落地。基建投资较快增长对冲了房地产投资下滑影响，有利于稳投资稳经济。 如果包含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，今年前4个月广义基础设施投资同比增长10.9%，明显高于同期固定资产投资增 速（4%）。 复杂外部形势下，中国经济顶住压力稳定增长，基础设施投资稳定增长显然是一个重要因素。 光大证券首席宏观经济学家高瑞东认为，今年以来财政积极发力，前4个月地方新增专项债发行规模完成全年4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed signals in China's economic recovery, highlighting the divergence in financial, inflation, and economic data, particularly in infrastructure, real estate, and consumption sectors [2][3][4]. Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter is projected to be around 5.3%, with a year-on-year increase in retail sales of 4% [2]. - CPI and PPI showed negative growth in January-February, with CPI at -0.1% and PPI at -2.2%, indicating weak demand [3]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 9.9% year-on-year in January-February, but high-frequency data such as black metal prices and cement shipment volumes are low [4]. - The structure of infrastructure investment is skewed towards central government projects, with significant growth in water and energy sectors, while traditional sectors like road transport are lagging [4]. Real Estate Market - The real estate recovery is characterized by uncertainty, with second-hand home transactions in major cities up by 25.9%, contrasting with a decline in new home sales [5]. - There is significant internal divergence in second-hand home sales across cities, with some cities experiencing substantial growth while others see declines [5]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, driven by policies like "trade-in" programs, but the sustainability of this recovery is in question [11]. - Retail sales growth is being supported by a rebound in service retail, but overall consumer sentiment remains cautious due to rising unemployment rates [16]. Policy Implications - The government is focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market, with plans for stimulus measures if external uncertainties increase [17].

Investment Growth and Trends - Infrastructure investment in 2024 showed a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, with power, heat, gas, and water supply sectors leading at 23.9% growth[2] - Manufacturing investment also grew by 9.2% in 2024, outpacing overall fixed asset investment by 6 percentage points, highlighting its role as a key economic driver[3] - Real estate investment faced challenges, declining by 10.6% in 2024, with new housing sales down 12.9% and sales revenue down 17.1%[4] Challenges and Opportunities - Investment quality development is entering a new phase, facing challenges in addressing imbalances and enhancing core strengths[5] - China's per capita infrastructure capital stock is only 20% to 30% of that in developed countries, indicating significant investment needs in shortfall areas[4] - Despite traditional growth engines like real estate being under pressure, there is potential for resource optimization towards infrastructure and manufacturing[4] Future Outlook - Infrastructure investment is expected to remain robust, supported by special bonds and urban renewal policies, which will drive growth in 2025[6] - Manufacturing investment is poised for strategic opportunities, with significant investments in technology and digital infrastructure, such as Alibaba's plan to invest 380 billion RMB over three years[7] - Real estate investment is anticipated to recover with policy support, as financing mechanisms have already facilitated the construction of 14 million housing units[8]