Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a new government debt limit of 182.4 billion yuan for Fujian Province in 2024, signaling the issuance of the second batch of new debt limits, with local governments planning to issue over 2 trillion yuan in local bonds in the third quarter, indicating a peak in local bond issuance and strong support for infrastructure investment growth [1][2]. Group 1: Local Debt Issuance - Fujian Province's new government debt limit of 182.4 billion yuan represents a 3.7% increase from the previous year, indicating the second batch of new government bond quotas has been issued [2]. - A total of 27 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities plan to issue local bonds amounting to 2.36 trillion yuan in the third quarter, with ten regions including Sichuan, Guangdong, and Hunan planning to issue over 100 billion yuan each [2]. - As of June 25, local governments have issued a total of 3.3 trillion yuan in local bonds this year, with 1.35 trillion yuan being new special bonds [2]. Group 2: Project Support and Efficiency - Local governments are prioritizing the issuance of bonds for high-maturity projects to ensure quick formation of physical work volume, with Fujian's new debt limit including 14 billion yuan for general debt and 168.4 billion yuan for special debt [4]. - The focus is on supporting public welfare projects that can achieve financing and revenue balance, particularly ongoing and mature projects [4]. - The process from special bond issuance to the formation of physical work volume involves several stages, and delays in any stage can impact timely project execution [4]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment - Local bonds are expected to significantly support major project construction, with Qingdao issuing 32.02 billion yuan in new special bonds for various key projects [6][7]. - The increase in government bond financing since May is anticipated to accelerate infrastructure investment growth, with the National Development and Reform Commission pushing for all new national bond projects to commence by the end of June [7]. - Overall, infrastructure investment is projected to play a stabilizing role in the macroeconomic landscape this year [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the efforts of the Agricultural Development Bank of China in promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) through cross-border settlement initiatives, particularly in collaboration with key enterprises like Pizhou Economic Development Holding Group [1][2] - The challenges faced by enterprises in adopting RMB for cross-border transactions include complex policies, compliance barriers, and insufficient offshore RMB liquidity, which hinder operational efficiency [1][2] Group 1 - The Agricultural Development Bank of China is actively engaging with Pizhou Economic Development Holding Group, a significant foreign-related enterprise involved in cross-border infrastructure investment and green energy equipment trade [1] - The group is exploring RMB cross-border settlement but faces challenges such as frequent policy updates and differing regulatory requirements between domestic and foreign jurisdictions, leading to high compliance costs [1] - Insufficient RMB liquidity in Southeast Asia and Central Asia complicates repayment sources and limits settlement efficiency for the group's green energy projects [1] Group 2 - The bank emphasizes that prioritizing RMB for cross-border settlements is more convenient and will accelerate the RMB internationalization process, especially in the context of the ongoing US-China trade tensions [2] - A tailored "one enterprise, one policy" approach will be developed, including the establishment of a dedicated cross-border service team to provide monthly policy updates and leverage provincial resources [2] - The bank aims to enhance the flow of policies, liquidity, and risk control through customized services, supporting enterprises in cautiously participating in the RMB internationalization process [2]

Core Viewpoint - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down in June, but overall remains stable in the first half of the year, contributing to economic stability within a reasonable range [1][2][3] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment Trends - Narrow infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 4.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, down from 5.6% in the first five months [1] - Broad infrastructure investment growth, including power and water supply, was approximately 8.9% in the first half, a decline of 1.5 percentage points from the previous five months [1] - June saw a significant slowdown in narrow infrastructure investment growth to about 2%, the slowest since August of the previous year [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Investment - The slowdown in infrastructure investment growth is attributed to weather disturbances, low funding availability, and a significant drop in construction material prices [2] - Long-term trends indicate a shift in funding allocation towards more effective innovation and technology sectors, reducing the impact of government debt on traditional infrastructure investment [2][3] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Funding - Fiscal spending has shifted towards social welfare and technology, with infrastructure-related expenditures showing a slight decline [3] - Government bond issuance has been front-loaded, with cumulative financing of 7.6 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of approximately 4.3 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - The issuance of super long-term special bonds and local government special bonds is set to accelerate in the second half of the year, with approximately 0.75 billion yuan in super long-term bonds and 2.24 trillion yuan in new special bonds expected [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The establishment of new policy financial tools is anticipated to address capital shortages for project construction, with estimates around 500 billion yuan [5] - Experts suggest that incremental policies may include increasing government borrowing to stimulate infrastructure investment [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the national economic fundamentals from July 7th to July 11th, 2025. It shows that the overall high - frequency index of fundamentals is stable, while different sectors have different trends, such as a decline in real estate sales, an increase in infrastructure investment growth rate, and a narrowing increase in export growth rate [1][9]. Summary by Directory Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.6 points (previous value was 126.5 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.2 points (previous value was also an increase of 5.2 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.7% (previous value was 4.8%) [1][9]. Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Declines - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.9 (previous value was 125.8), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value was also an increase of 4.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate drops to 57.1% from 59.0% [1][9][15]. Real Estate Sales: Property Transactions Decline - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 44.0 (previous value was 44.1), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4 points (previous value was also a decrease of 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 19.6 million square meters, down from 37.8 million square meters [1][9][29]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declines - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 119.3 (previous value was 119.0), with a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points (previous value was an increase of 3.0 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 32.7%, up from 31.7% [1][9][39]. Export: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The export high - frequency index is 144.0 (previous value was 144.1), with a year - on - year increase of 4.4 points (previous value was an increase of 4.7 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The CCFI index drops to 1314 points from 1343 points [1][9][45]. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Decline - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.6 (previous value was 119.5), with a year - on - year increase of 2.1 points (previous value was an increase of 1.9 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. Passenger car manufacturers' retail is 39,660 units, down from 95,374 units; wholesale is 38,757 units, down from 154,429 units [1][9][57]. CPI: Fruit Prices Continue to Decline - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value was - 0.1%). The average wholesale price of 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits is 7.3 yuan/kg, down from 7.4 yuan/kg [1][9][65]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Decline - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1% (previous value was 0.0%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 9,769 US dollars/ton, down from 10,047 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,587 US dollars/ton, down from 2,598 US dollars/ton [1][9][74]. Transportation: Flight Numbers Continue to Rise - The transportation high - frequency index is 128.8 (previous value was 128.6), with a year - on - year increase of 8.6 points (previous value was an increase of 8.5 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) is 14,401 flights, up from 13,985 flights [2][10][87]. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Increases - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.8 (previous value was 160.6), with a year - on - year increase of 9.5 points (previous value was an increase of 9.6 points), and the year - on - year increase rate narrows. The soda ash inventory is 185.6 million tons, up from 178.9 million tons [2][10][93]. Financing: 6M State - owned Joint - stock Bank Draft Rediscount Rate Decreases - The financing high - frequency index is 231.5 (previous value was 230.9), with a year - on - year increase of 29.5 points (previous value was an increase of 29.4 points), and the year - on - year increase rate expands. The 6M state - owned joint - stock bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91%, down from 1.01% [2][10][103].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the domestic economy, highlighting three main lines: export under trade friction, investment and consumption driven by policy stimulus, and the real endogenous power of the economy. It notes a temporary phase of "grabbing exports 2.0" due to easing US-China trade tensions, with a focus on the resilience of the economy in the second quarter [2]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - There is a divergence in the growth rates of subsidized and non-subsidized consumption, with service consumption growth gradually declining, indicating little change in endogenous consumption momentum. From January to April, retail sales grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with "trade-in" consumption contributing 1.1 percentage points to this growth [3]. - The growth rate of service consumption has decreased from 20% in 2023 to 6.2% in 2024 and 5.1% in April 2025, suggesting a plateau after a rebound [3]. - The consumption subsidy policy is expected to support retail sales growth in the second quarter, with an anticipated increase of 4.5%-5% in retail sales and a final consumption growth of 4.3% [28]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The 924 policy in real estate has shown a diminishing effect, with sales facing adjustment pressures. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year change in domestic commercial housing sales area was -2.8%, a significant improvement from -17.1% in 2024 [12]. - The second-hand housing market has performed better, with a year-on-year increase of 21.1% in transaction area from October 2024 to March 2025, raising the proportion of second-hand housing sales [12]. - However, by April, second-hand housing sales began to cool down, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.6% in 11 sample cities, indicating a potential downturn in the market [12]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Growth - Despite little change in endogenous economic momentum, consumption subsidies and export initiatives are expected to significantly support the economy in the second quarter, with a projected GDP growth rate of 5.2% for the quarter [28]. - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize around 4%, supported by "equipment updates" and related projects, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments showing year-on-year increases of 8.8% and 10.9%, respectively [28]. - The article anticipates a 3%-5% growth in exports in the second quarter, despite facing high base effects [30].

国家统计局最新数据显示，今年前4个月，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业）同比增长5.8%。 国家统计局投资司首席统计师罗毅飞称，这一增速比全部投资高1.8个百分点；对全部投资增长的贡献率为32.6%，比一季度提 高2.3个百分点。其中，水利管理业投资增长30.7%，水上运输业投资增长26.9%，航空运输业投资增长13.9%。 根据粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒测算，如果包含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，今年前4个月广义基础设施投资同比增 长10.9%，明显高于同期固定资产投资增速（4%）。 多位接受第一财经采访的专家认为，今年以来基建投资保持较快增长，得益于地方政府专项债券等资金到位较快，地方加大力 度推动重大项目落地。基建投资较快增长对冲了房地产投资下滑影响，有利于稳投资稳经济。 如果包含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，今年前4个月广义基础设施投资同比增长10.9%，明显高于同期固定资产投资增 速（4%）。 复杂外部形势下，中国经济顶住压力稳定增长，基础设施投资稳定增长显然是一个重要因素。 光大证券首席宏观经济学家高瑞东认为，今年以来财政积极发力，前4个月地方新增专项债发行规模完成全年4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed signals in China's economic recovery, highlighting the divergence in financial, inflation, and economic data, particularly in infrastructure, real estate, and consumption sectors [2][3][4]. Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter is projected to be around 5.3%, with a year-on-year increase in retail sales of 4% [2]. - CPI and PPI showed negative growth in January-February, with CPI at -0.1% and PPI at -2.2%, indicating weak demand [3]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 9.9% year-on-year in January-February, but high-frequency data such as black metal prices and cement shipment volumes are low [4]. - The structure of infrastructure investment is skewed towards central government projects, with significant growth in water and energy sectors, while traditional sectors like road transport are lagging [4]. Real Estate Market - The real estate recovery is characterized by uncertainty, with second-hand home transactions in major cities up by 25.9%, contrasting with a decline in new home sales [5]. - There is significant internal divergence in second-hand home sales across cities, with some cities experiencing substantial growth while others see declines [5]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, driven by policies like "trade-in" programs, but the sustainability of this recovery is in question [11]. - Retail sales growth is being supported by a rebound in service retail, but overall consumer sentiment remains cautious due to rising unemployment rates [16]. Policy Implications - The government is focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market, with plans for stimulus measures if external uncertainties increase [17].

Investment Growth and Trends - Infrastructure investment in 2024 showed a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, with power, heat, gas, and water supply sectors leading at 23.9% growth[2] - Manufacturing investment also grew by 9.2% in 2024, outpacing overall fixed asset investment by 6 percentage points, highlighting its role as a key economic driver[3] - Real estate investment faced challenges, declining by 10.6% in 2024, with new housing sales down 12.9% and sales revenue down 17.1%[4] Challenges and Opportunities - Investment quality development is entering a new phase, facing challenges in addressing imbalances and enhancing core strengths[5] - China's per capita infrastructure capital stock is only 20% to 30% of that in developed countries, indicating significant investment needs in shortfall areas[4] - Despite traditional growth engines like real estate being under pressure, there is potential for resource optimization towards infrastructure and manufacturing[4] Future Outlook - Infrastructure investment is expected to remain robust, supported by special bonds and urban renewal policies, which will drive growth in 2025[6] - Manufacturing investment is poised for strategic opportunities, with significant investments in technology and digital infrastructure, such as Alibaba's plan to invest 380 billion RMB over three years[7] - Real estate investment is anticipated to recover with policy support, as financing mechanisms have already facilitated the construction of 14 million housing units[8]