PVC春节假期持仓报告：弱现实，强预期 发布日期：2026年2月12日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.33个百分点至79.26%，PVC开工 率继续小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降3.33个百分点，下游 主动备货意愿偏低。出口方面，价格上涨后，国内出口签单环比回落，但之前的抢出口使得企业销 售压力不大。中国台湾台塑PVC出口3月份船货离岸价环比2月上调40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增 加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施 工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度 成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期偏低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生 产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周预计无新增检修装置，PVC开工率变化不大，期货 仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临近春节假期，下游进入放假模式进一步增加，逐渐 进入假期休整，现货成交清淡，社会库存继续增加。不过生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻 关等关键环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC market are currently bearish, mainly due to increased supply pressure, weak demand, and cost - related factors. The overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is not smooth. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4920 - 5022. [8][10][13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In January 2026, PVC production was 2.14863 million tons, a 0.53% month - on - month increase. The weekly capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.26%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 348,330 tons, a 0.34% increase, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,960 tons, a 0.62% increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, expected maintenance is to decrease with a slight increase in scheduled production. [8] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 41.42%, a 3.33 - percentage - point decrease. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin all decreased compared to the previous week, but were still higher than historical average levels. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive, so current demand may remain low. [8] - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 658.58 yuan/ton, with a 11.00% decrease in losses. The profit of the ethylene method was 102.91 yuan/ton, a 91.60% increase. The double - ton spread was 1,803.67 yuan/ton, a 1.00% decrease. Scheduled production may be under pressure. [9] - **Other Factors**: On February 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 151 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory decreased by 0.85% month - on - month, while social inventory increased by 1.40%. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main positions were net short, with an increase in short positions. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a table of yesterday's market overview, including futures closing prices, some monthly spreads, weekly inventory, weekly downstream operating rates, weekly profits, weekly costs, electricity - ethylene spreads, and registered warehouse receipt quantities, along with their changes compared to the previous period. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report presents a graph of the base price trend, showing the relationship between the base price, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2026. [17][18] - **Futures Market Analysis**: The report shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract in 2026, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats. [20][21] - **Spread Analysis**: A graph of the main contract spreads from 2024 to 2025 is presented, including 1 - 9 spreads and 5 - 9 spreads. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: The report includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, inventory, and production volume trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from multiple years. [26][27][29][30] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates, profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production from multiple years. [40][41][43] - **Demand Trend**: The report presents the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin in the PVC market from multiple years. It also includes the cost, profit, production volume, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real estate - related indicators and some macro - economic indicators. [45][46][48] - **Inventory**: The report provides the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouses, ethylene factory warehouses, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days in the PVC market from multiple years. [57][58] - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and ethylene dichloride, PVC export volume, ethylene FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread in the ethylene method from multiple years. [59][60] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the PVC monthly supply - demand balance sheet from December 2024 to January 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand differences. [62][63]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to break the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventory and the current basis being repaired, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently, a higher operating rate than PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film not yet starting, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Analysis** - On February 10, the restart of maintenance devices such as Guangdong Petrochemical's full - density line 1 led to the plastic operating rate rising to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% on a week - on - week basis, showing a seasonal decline. Petrochemical inventory reduction in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost side saw an increase in crude oil prices due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. **Futures and Spot Market Quotes** - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6723 yuan/ton, the highest was 6779 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6775 yuan/ton, up 0.24% above the 60 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 5995 lots to 512614 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Part of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. **Fundamental Tracking** - **Supply**: On February 10, the restart of maintenance devices such as Guangdong Petrochemical's full - density line 1 led to the plastic operating rate rising to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% on a week - on - week basis. With the approaching Spring Festival, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decrease, and orders for packaging films also decreased, showing a seasonal decline in the overall downstream operating rate of PE [1][4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 460,000 tons on a day - on - day basis, 35,000 tons lower than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to $69/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695/ton on a week - on - week basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $675/ton on a week - on - week basis [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate within a range. The market has policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival, but the PVC market is currently affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and the disk fluctuates greatly, so cautious operation is required [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Affected by devices such as Shandong Hengtong and Henan Yuhang, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26% week - on - week, continuing a slight increase and at a neutral level in recent years. There are no expected new maintenance devices this week, so the PVC operating rate is expected to change little [4][18] 3.2 Demand - Near the Spring Festival, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.33 percentage points week - on - week, and the downstream's willingness to actively stock up is low. The real estate is still in the adjustment phase, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. As of the week of February 8, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 18.54% week - on - week and is still at a low level in the same period in recent years [4][24] 3.3 Export - After the price increase, the domestic export orders decreased week - on - week, but the previous export rush reduced the enterprise sales pressure [4] 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of February 5, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.71% week - on - week to 1.227 billion tons, 63.28% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level [25] 3.5 Basis - The current 05 basis of PVC is - 211 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [13]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement. Although the spot market followed up limitedly at the end of January, there is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the recent new production capacity of plastics and its higher operating rate than PP, coupled with the fact that the concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 90.5% and is at a moderately high level, as the overhaul devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's full - density line 2 restarted. PP operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 80% and is at a moderately low level, with the restart of overhaul devices like Maoming Petrochemical's second - line [13]. 2. Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of February 6, the PE downstream operating rate decreased 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, agricultural film orders and raw material inventories continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased, showing a seasonal decline. The PP downstream operating rate dropped 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the lunar calendar over the years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn - wire PP, decreased 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, with orders continuing to decline and slightly lower than last year [4][18]. 3. Plastic Basis - Both spot and futures prices fell, and the basis of the 05 contract slightly rose to - 62 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [22]. 4. Plastic and PP Inventories - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased 0.5 tons week - on - week to 42.5 tons, 8 tons lower than the same period of last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly, and the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26][27].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年2月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2026年1月PVC产量为214.863万吨，环比增加0.53%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.26%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.833万吨，环比增加0.34%,乙烯法企业产 量13.696万吨，环比增加0.62%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增 加。 1、基本面: 偏空。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-658.58元/吨，亏损环比减少11.00%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为 102.91元/吨，利润环比增加91.60%，低于历史平均水平；双吨价差为1826.01元/吨，利润环比减少 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪回落，盘面价格回调 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-09 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪回落，盘面价格回调 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，尚未有产能退出，供大于求格局短期难改，供给压力偏大。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用率在78.93%环比增加 | | | | 0.19%，同比减少2.98%；其中电石法在80.58%环比增加0.58%，同比减少1.67%，乙烯法在75.02%环比减少0.73%，同比减少0.97%。（3）本周PVC生产 | | | | 企业检修损失量在3.87万吨，较上期下降0.285万吨。本周常规检修略有减少，检修损失量环比上周下降6.86 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals is experiencing a significant decline, with plastic futures showing a downward trend and a drop of approximately 1.98% [1] - The supply-demand dynamics for plastic are improving only marginally, with limited follow-up in the spot market and expectations of reduced competition in the chemical sector [1] - New production capacity for plastic has recently come online, leading to higher operating rates compared to polypropylene (PP), while demand for agricultural film has not yet peaked [1] Group 2 - Recent maintenance shutdowns at facilities such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical have led to an increase in polyethylene (PE) production and capacity utilization rates [2] - The operating rates for downstream products, including agricultural and packaging films, are on a downward trend, indicating weak demand as companies prepare for the upcoming holiday [2] - The overall supply-demand data for PE is showing signs of weakening, with expectations of further declines in operating rates for agricultural films as the holiday approaches [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, and the spot price followed up limited at the end of January. However, there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, the upstream petrochemical inventory is low, the basis has been repaired, and the sentiment of bulk commodities has improved. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and the concentrated demand for plastic film not yet starting, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1行情分析 - As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On February 4th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29.5%. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was reduced rapidly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the US has reduced tariffs on India, and Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving is stable, but its new orders are limited [1] 3.2期现行情 3.2.1期货方面 - The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6727 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6824 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6801 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.15%. The position increased by 11,151 lots to 521,043 lots [2] 3.2.2现货方面 - The spot prices of PP in various regions were mostly stable. The drawstring was reported at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on February 4th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29.5% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 50 million tons week - on - week, 6 million tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was reduced rapidly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to 67 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 825 US dollars/ton week - on - week [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年2月4日 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨，环比增加2.79%；本周样本企业 产能利用率为78.93%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.716万吨，环比增加0.73%,乙 烯法企业产量13.611万吨，环比减少0.96%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预 计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.75%，环比减少0.10个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材 开工率为31.52%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37%，环比持平，高于历史平 均水平；下游薄膜开工率为65.71%，环比减少0.35个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开 工率为80.97%，环比减少1.09个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用 ...