Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. The fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether subsequent exports can exceed expectations to reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern. In the short term, prices have fallen sharply after the anti - involution sentiment subsided. In the medium term, if there is no policy for device clearance, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry still faces the pressure of de - valuing to clear excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 90 yuan/ton; Shandong calcium carbide is 2,780 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 75 yuan/ton; and Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 620 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration first soared and then declined, and the profit from ethylene production remained low, with weak valuation support [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.5%, a monthly increase of 2%. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 78.7%, a monthly decrease of 2.2%, and the ethylene method is 81.5%, a monthly increase of 13%. Last month, the maintenance volume was high, and the average capacity utilization rate was lower than that in June, with reduced supply pressure. This month, the maintenance intensity is lower than last month, and the newly - put - into - production devices are gradually releasing output, so the supply pressure is expected to increase significantly [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, there was a high export growth rate in the first five months. In June, with the rainy season in Southeast Asia and the uncertainty of export policies to India, overall exports declined significantly. Currently, both India's BIS policy and anti - dumping policy have been extended, improving the weak outlook for the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries stopped falling and rebounded. The pipe load is 32.1%, a monthly decrease of 7.4%; the film load is 76.9%, a monthly increase of 4.7%; the profile load is 36.9%, a monthly increase of 2.2%. The overall downstream load is 42.9%, the same as last month. The overall downstream performance is worse than the same period last year, and the overall demand is weak. The main incremental demand depends on exports [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, the in - factory inventory was 33.7 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.9 tons; the social inventory was 77.7 tons, a monthly increase of 18.5 tons; the overall inventory was 111.4 tons, a monthly increase of 13.6 tons; and the warehouse receipts continued to rise. Currently, it has entered the inventory accumulation cycle, and the upstream inventory is gradually transferred to the middle - stream. In the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, if the export end does not perform better than expected, inventory accumulation will continue [11]. 3.2 Cost End - The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai is 2,340 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 90 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide in Shandong is 2,780 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 75 yuan/ton; and the price of Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 620 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The semi - coke price has stabilized, and caustic soda is weak [11][49]. 3.3 Supply End - In 2025, the capacity investment in the PVC industry is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. New capacity of 250 tons/year is expected to be put into production, including 100 tons/year of ethylene - based and 150 tons/year of calcium - carbide - based. The newly - put - into - production devices include those of Xinsheng Chemical, Jintai Chemical, Wanhua Chemical (Phase II), Tianjin Bohua, Zhejiang Jiahua, Qingdao Gulf, and Gansu Yaowang [58][63]. 3.4 Demand End - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) of PVC stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, there was a high growth rate in the first five months, but it declined significantly in June. With the extension of India's anti - dumping policy, there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The overall downstream demand is weak, and the main incremental demand depends on exports [11].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-08 库存累积，聚烯烃走势偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7297元/吨（-24），PP主力合约收盘价为7075元/吨（-3），LL华北现货为7210 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7280元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7040元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为-87元/吨（+4），LL 华东基差为-17元/吨（+24）， PP华东基差为-35元/吨（-7）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.1%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.3%（+0.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为348.6元/吨（+56.1），PP油制生产利润为-121.4元/吨（+56.1），PDH制PP生产利 润为187.7元/吨（-115.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-74.0元/吨（-2.2），PP进口利润为-498.5元/吨（+7.7），PP出口利润为29.3美元/吨（-1.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为13.1%（+0.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.7%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工 率为41.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuates with coal. Its fundamental situation changes little and remains in the process of inventory accumulation. Imports are high, and the valuation is currently normal. In the short - term, it tends to fluctuate [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of top - two oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The top - two oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. In August, maintenance decreases month - on - month, and domestic linear production increases month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [4]. - PP: The upstream top - two oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. The subsequent supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face medium - to - high pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - PVC: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the mid - and upstream is continuously de - stocking at a slower pace. In summer, the northwest devices have seasonal maintenance. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in July - August. The current static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [4]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily change in the Jiangsu spot price was - 27, the South China spot price changed by - 10, and the Northwest discounted price on the disk increased by 20. Other indicators such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged [2]. - **Viewpoint**: Fluctuates with coal, fundamentals change little, in inventory accumulation, normal valuation, short - term oscillation [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 820. The daily change in the North China LL price was - 40, and the East China LL price changed by - 35. The主力期货 price decreased by 38 [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Neutral overall inventory, attention to LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning in 2025 [4]. PP - **Price Data**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased by 50, the East China PP price decreased by 40, and the主力期货 price decreased by 24 [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream inventory accumulation, middle - stream de - stocking, attention to export volume and PDH device maintenance [4]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased by 50, and the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price decreased by 60 [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Seasonal downstream weakness, slow mid - and upstream de - stocking, attention to commissioning and export in July - August [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The fundamentals show that the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a new high this year, with significant valuation pressure. The number of maintenance projects is gradually decreasing, and the production volume is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of devices are being put into operation. On the downstream side, the domestic start - up level is at a five - year low. Regarding exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended, and there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, weakening cost support. In the medium term, the industry is continuously suppressed by the substantial increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real estate demand. The industry pattern has deteriorated and needs to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the domestic excess production capacity. Overall, under the reality of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It is necessary to observe whether subsequent exports can exceed expectations and reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern. In the short term, there has been a significant decline after the anti - involution sentiment subsided. If there is no policy to clear devices in the medium term, the supply - demand pattern will still be weak, and the industry still faces the pressure of reducing valuation to clear production capacity [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has risen to a new high this year, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to rebound. Currently, the valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%; among them, the calcium carbide method is 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the ethylene method is 79%, a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The supply - side load increased slightly last week, mainly due to the resumption of maintenance at Qilu Petrochemical, Yidongdongxing, and Fujian Wanhua. It is expected that the load will further recover next week. The maintenance volume in August will decrease, and with the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure will increase [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the pressure of weak exports in the third quarter. There is an expectation of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The start - up of the three major downstream industries rebounded last week. The load of pipes was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the load of films was 77%, unchanged from the previous week; the load of profiles was 37%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The overall downstream load was 42.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The overall downstream start - up has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 854,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,000 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 345,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons; the social inventory was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,000 tons; the overall inventory was 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons; the number of warehouse receipts increased. In the subsequent domestic pattern of strong supply and weak demand, supply and demand will turn to inventory accumulation. It is necessary to observe whether there are any surprises in exports [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market No specific text - based summary content provided, only multiple charts about PVC term structure, prices, basis, spreads, positions, and trading volumes from 2021 to 2025 are presented [16][18][20]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has recovered to a new high this year, with significant valuation pressure [40]. - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the inventory data of PVC in - factory, ethylene - based in - factory, calcium carbide - based in - factory, social inventory, total inventory, and warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [34][37][39]. 4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: The price of calcium carbide has decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The price and inventory trends of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the calcium carbide start - up rate [47][48]. - **Other Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke has rebounded, while the prices of ethylene and caustic soda have remained stable. The price trends of semi - coke, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts [50][52][55]. 5. Supply Side - **Capacity Expansion**: The capacity expansion of PVC in 2025 is significant, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 2.5 million tons/year of new capacity is expected to be put into operation, including projects such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II). The raw material consumption for the new capacity is also presented [58][63]. - **Production**: The PVC start - up rate has remained stable, and the overall production volume is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the weekly production volume [66][69][72]. 6. Demand Side - **Downstream Start - up**: The start - up of the three major downstream industries of PVC has rebounded. The start - up rates of PVC pipes, films, and profiles from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts [75]. - **Exports**: The anti - dumping policy of India has been extended, alleviating the pressure of weak exports in the third quarter. There is an expectation of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The export volume of PVC and the export volume to India from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the pre - sales volume [11][83][86]. - **Real Estate Impact**: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year change in China's housing completion area, reflecting the impact of the real estate market on PVC demand [90].

Group 1 - The Eurasian Economic Commission has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into polypropylene and propylene copolymers originating from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - The report provides a PVC main weekly data summary, including price, production, inventory, and other data. For example, the latest PVC main price is 5373 yuan/ton, up 8.83% from last week; China's production is 45.15 million tons, down 1.03% from last week [5]. PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - There are multiple charts showing the trends of PVC basis, different contract spreads, etc., from 2019 - 2025, such as the basis, SG - 5, and main contract trends from 2025/3/27 to 2025/6/27 [8]. PART THREE: PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - There are numerous charts related to PVC supply - demand fundamentals from 2019 - 2025, covering aspects like production, inventory, and price trends over different weeks of each year, such as the trends of production, inventory, and price from the 3rd week to the 53rd week of each year [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC industry is currently facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand with high valuations. Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a high point for the year, but the valuation pressure is significant. In the short term, there is an expectation of supply reduction due to anti - involution and a rebound in the black building materials sector, but there is a risk of a sharp decline after the sentiment fades. In the medium term, the industry is suppressed by large - scale capacity growth and continuous decline in real estate demand. It needs to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the excess domestic production capacity [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is reported at 2,225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is at 585 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has risen to a high point for the year, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to rebound, but the valuation support is currently weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.8%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.3%, a 0.5% decrease, and the ethylene method is 70.3%, a 1.7% decrease. The supply load decreased last week due to the maintenance of several enterprises, and it is expected to recover next week. There were more maintenance operations in July than in June, but the supply pressure remains high, and the pressure of new device production in the third quarter is large [11]. - **Demand**: India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the weak export pressure in the third quarter, with an expectation of pre - tariff export rush. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have rebounded this week. The overall downstream load is 41.9%, a 1.8% increase from the previous period, but still weak compared to the same period last year. The PVC pre - sales volume last week was 795,000 tons, a 99,000 - ton increase from the previous period [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 357,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the social inventory was 683,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous period; the overall inventory was 1.04 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts has increased. In the future, under the pattern of strong domestic supply and weak demand, the supply - demand situation will turn to inventory accumulation, and it is necessary to observe whether the export is better than expected [11]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure. The maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of devices will be put into production. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and still in the off - season. The cost support is weakening. In the medium term, the industry is suppressed by capacity growth and real - estate demand decline. Overall, the fundamentals are poor, and it is necessary to observe whether the subsequent export can reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot markets, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 9 - 1 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [16][19][24][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has recovered to a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure [37]. - **Inventory**: The report shows multiple charts of PVC inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium - carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [31][34][36]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices are falling and inventory is accumulating. The report presents charts of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Lanzhou semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda price in Shandong, liquid chlorine price in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2021 to 2025 [44][45][48]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year, including several enterprises such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) [57][62]. - The report shows charts of PVC historical capacity trends, 2025 PVC production capacity, and raw materials consumed by 2025 PVC production [58][60][63]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have rebounded. The export volume and pre - sales volume have also increased to some extent. India's anti - dumping policy extension may lead to an export rush at the end of the rainy season [11]. - The report presents charts of PVC downstream operating rates (including profiles, films, and pipes), export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and China's housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year from 2021 to 2025 [73][81][86].

Group 1 - The trading variety is polyvinyl chloride (PVC) [1] - The trading unit is tons [1] - The quotation unit is in Chinese Yuan (RMB) per ton [1] Group 2 - The minimum price fluctuation is 1 RMB per ton [1] - The price limit for daily trading is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price [1] - The contract months available for trading are from January to December [1] Group 3 - Trading hours are from 9:00 AM to 11:30 AM and 1:30 PM to 3:00 PM, along with other specified trading times [1] - The last trading day is the last trading day of the month prior to the contract month [1] - The delivery date coincides with the last trading day [1] Group 4 - The minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value [1] - The delivery method is cash settlement [1] - The trading code is V followed by the contract month F [1] Group 5 - The exchange for trading is the Dalian Commodity Exchange [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - V2509 oscillated and declined, closing at 5,151 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week-on-week to 77.59%. The downstream start - up rate decreased by 1% week - on - week to 40.11%, with the pipe start - up rate down 3.92% week - on - week to 33.75% and the profile start - up rate stable at 34.5%. The PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons. In July, domestic PVC maintenance was gradually implemented. With the restart of previously shut - down devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise week - on - week. New devices of Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Dagu are expected to be put into production this week, increasing the medium - and long - term supply pressure. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices will restart this week, increasing the commodity volume and pressuring calcium carbide prices; the ethylene market has sufficient available resources, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The market sentiment for the previous supply - side policy benefits has faded, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy on eliminating backward production capacity in the industry. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support near 5,090 and the resistance near 5,300 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan; the trading volume was 1,806,028 lots, a decrease of 44,699 lots; the open interest was 865,052 lots, a decrease of 209 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 760,429 lots, an increase of 15,577 lots; the sell order volume was 745,036 lots, an increase of 2,126 lots; the net buy order volume was 15,393 lots, an increase of 13,451 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,088.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 57.69 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,075.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 64.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 109 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northern China region, it was 2,598.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; in the northwestern region, it was 2,368 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 450 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC was 77.59%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 71.95%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points; the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was not clearly presented. The total social inventory of PVC was 79.71 million tons, an increase of 1.83 million tons. The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region was 36.41 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 30,364.32 million square meters, an increase of 7,180.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 633,321.43 million square meters, an increase of 8,301.89 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.85%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.47%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.12%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.1%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points [3] Industry News - On July 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 5,050 to 5,120 yuan/ton. From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. As of July 17th, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% week - on - week to 65.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.15% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core Viewpoints - Policy promotes the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and the macro - level has a certain boost to the polyolefin market. New device overhauls in production enterprises ease some supply - demand pressure, but some devices restart. PE upstream and mid - stream inventory trends continue to rise, and PP production enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. Crude oil is weakly sorted, propane prices continue to be weak, cost - side support is weak. Downstream demand remains weak in the seasonal consumption off - season, and new order volume is limited. In the short - term future, there are no new overhaul plans, and supply is expected to increase. With weak fundamentals, inventory is expected to continue rising [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7290元/吨（+74），PP主力合约收盘价为7091元/吨（+78），LL华北现货为7200元/吨（+80），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+50），LL华北基差为 - 90元/吨（+6），LL华东基差为 - 100元/吨（ - 74），PP华东基差为29元/吨（ - 28） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.2% (+0.4%), PP operating rate is 77.3% (+0.7%). PE oil - based production profit is 74.8 yuan/ton (+14.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 285.2 yuan/ton (+14.8), PDH - based PP production profit is 315.8 yuan/ton (+14.0) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 142.0 yuan/ton (-4.8), PP import profit is - 694.2 yuan/ton (-5.0), PP export profit is 36.8 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.5% (-0.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.4% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.8% (+0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE upstream and mid - stream inventory trends continue to rise, and PP production enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. In the future, with weak fundamentals, inventory is expected to continue rising [2]