丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 中报预计延续高增，配置价值持续提升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 券商方面，本周多家券商披露业绩预增，中报业绩预计延续高增，配置价值持续提升；保险方面，预期价 值率提升继续驱动新业务价值高增；资产端权益市场延续上涨，预期投资收益及利润增长表现较好。当前 估值隐含市场对长期投资的悲观假设，考虑中远期利差水平，当前估值仍然安全。从盈利和分红的稳定性 维度出发，推荐江苏金租、中国平安及中国财险。综合业绩弹性及估值分位，推荐新华保险、中国人寿、 香港交易所、中信证券、东方财富、同花顺、九方智投控股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 谢宇尘 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 中报预计延续高增，配置价值持续提升 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点： 1）券商 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Macro Economy and Real Estate Market - **Company**: Goldman Sachs (GS) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Mixed Economic Data for May**: - Fixed asset investment growth was only 3.7%, below the expected 4.0% - Industrial value-added growth was 5.8%, slightly below the expected 6.0% - Retail sales of consumer goods grew strongly by 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9% [2][3] 2. **Decline in Urban Housing Demand**: - GS revised the forecast for urban housing demand, estimating it will remain below 5 million units annually, a 75% decrease from the peak of 20 million units in 2017 - Current housing prices are still declining, indicating the real estate market has not yet bottomed out [3][4] 3. **Limited Impact of Export Front-Loading**: - Anticipated "reciprocal" tariffs led to front-loading of exports, with an estimated 5% increase in overall exports in March - The impact on exports for the second half of the year is expected to be limited to 1 percentage point, suggesting that trade surpluses will remain strong [5][4] 4. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth**: - May saw a slowdown in fiscal operations, with budgetary income growth at only 0.1%, significantly lower than April's 1.9% - Fiscal expenditure growth decreased from 5.8% in April to 2.6%, indicating that fiscal stimulus has not significantly strengthened [11][12] 5. **Real Estate Revenue Weakness**: - Land transfer revenue fell by 14.2% year-on-year, a stark contrast to April's growth of 3.9% - Budgetary real estate-related tax revenue decreased by 8.6%, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate market [11][12] 6. **Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Prices**: - Brent crude oil prices rose to nearly $80 per barrel due to escalating tensions in Iran, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $12 - Two scenarios for oil price increases were outlined, with potential peaks of $90 and $110 per barrel under different supply disruption scenarios [26][28] 7. **Copper Demand Driven by AI**: - AI-driven data center expansion is expected to become a new growth driver for copper demand, particularly in power distribution and cooling systems - Strong capital expenditure expectations for AI-related investments are anticipated to sustain demand for copper-intensive components [32][34] 8. **Modern Dairy Industry Forecast**: - Modern Dairy, a joint venture of Mengniu, expects a net loss of RMB 800-1,000 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than last year's loss of RMB 207 million - The core operations remain resilient, with EBITDA expected to remain stable due to lower raw milk sales costs [38][39] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Fiscal Space for Expansion**: Despite current economic growth exceeding expectations, GS anticipates further fiscal expansion in the second half of the year to counter deflationary pressures and boost confidence [16][18] - **Market Sentiment and Currency Dynamics**: The report highlights a divergence in safe-haven currencies, with the dollar and Swiss franc performing strongly while Asian low-yield currencies face pressure [16][18] - **Potential for Future Trade Weakness**: High-frequency transport data indicates a potential weakening of Chinese exports to the U.S., particularly in container traffic, which may reflect the impact of new tariffs [35][37]

摩根士丹利：美国人未来10年多交2.7万亿美元关税 智通财经7月19日电，据央视新闻，近日，多家美国媒体批评美国政府的关税政策其实就是对内加税。 美国《财富》杂志援引摩根士丹利的一份研究报告表示，未来10年，美国政府可能征收高达2.7万亿美 元的关税，这笔钱将由美国消费者支付。《华盛顿邮报》称，关税政策的影响正在显现，美企开始感到 痛苦。《纽约时报》报道，美就业市场正失去动力。 ...

Group 1 - The concept of "American exceptionalism" is being re-evaluated due to economic policy uncertainties and record fiscal deficits, impacting national identity and global investment strategies [1][4] - The U.S. dollar index is projected to decline by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst start since 1973, influenced by erratic tariff policies and criticisms of the Federal Reserve [2][5] - The principle of "There Is No Alternative" regarding U.S. assets is being questioned as global investors diversify their reserves, increasing gold holdings to hedge against dollar depreciation [2][4] Group 2 - The weakening dollar is raising costs for international travel and imported goods, while reduced demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is increasing government borrowing costs [2][4] - Major investment firms are downgrading their outlook on U.S. assets, with Citigroup stating that "American exceptionalism" has been "paused" during the Trump administration [5] - Economic forecasts for U.S. GDP growth have been revised downwards due to the uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, with the Federal Reserve lowering its growth prediction from 2.1% to 1.7% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strong performance of the US stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, which has approached historical highs, and highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics and utilizing quantitative techniques for investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US stock market has shown a strong upward trend, with the S&P 500 index nearing historical highs as of early July [1]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its target for the index to 6900 points for the second time since May, indicating a positive outlook [1]. Group 2: Key Issues to Address - The article raises critical questions regarding the sources of market optimism and how it may evolve in the future [1]. - It emphasizes the need for systematic exploration and evaluation of investment opportunities, from macroeconomic outlooks to individual stock potentials [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The discussion includes the role of options strategies in risk management and enhancing returns during portfolio adjustments [1]. - It highlights the importance of technical indicators in practical applications for investment analysis [1]. Group 4: Event Details - The article promotes a webinar featuring Bloomberg experts who will provide in-depth analysis of recent trends in the US stock and options markets, as well as insights on using the Bloomberg quantitative platform BQuant Desktop for various analyses [1][4].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with an expected increase to $3,700 by the end of 2024 [3][6] - Central banks globally purchased an average of approximately 77 tons of gold per month from January to May this year, with China being the largest identifiable buyer [3][6] - The COMEX gold futures price has seen a cumulative increase of 27.39% for the entire year of 2024, marking the largest annual increase since 2010 [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, enhancing its appeal amid rising risks [8][9] - The potential for a decline in the value of the US dollar due to high inflation and increasing fiscal deficits could lead to higher gold prices, as gold is typically priced in dollars [9][11] - Many central banks are increasing their gold reserves as part of a strategy to diversify away from the US dollar, which supports the demand for gold and contributes to its price stability [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the opportunities and challenges faced by Chinese enterprises in overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) by 2025, highlighting the impact of global trade changes, geopolitical factors, and regulatory compliance on these strategies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The "Chinese Enterprises Overseas M&A Strategy" closed-door exchange meeting was successfully held in Beijing, featuring experts from various fields to discuss the theme of opportunities and challenges in overseas M&A for Chinese enterprises by 2025 [1][2]. M&A Market Insights - In the first half of 2025, the global M&A market showed significant recovery, with a total transaction value of $1.98 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 33%. However, the number of transactions decreased by 10%, indicating that larger deals are dominating the market [7]. - The Chinese mainland's M&A total reached $252 billion, a staggering increase of 130% year-on-year, accounting for 13% of the global market share, with transaction numbers increasing by 13% [7]. Challenges in Overseas M&A - Chinese enterprises face complex acquisition processes and diverse stakeholder demands, particularly in Southeast Asia, where legal systems vary significantly and foreign investment restrictions exist [5][6]. - Regulatory challenges include the need for compliance with new policies, such as the "M&A Six Guidelines," which have increased regulatory inclusivity but also present operational ambiguities [11][12]. Strategic Innovations - Companies are adopting innovative strategies to navigate global trade tensions, such as "nearshore manufacturing + local delivery" and brand acquisitions to mitigate tariffs [14]. - The introduction of geopolitical due diligence systems and digital tools for real-time monitoring of tariff policies is helping companies shorten decision-making cycles by an average of 35% [14]. Future Investment Strategies - Chinese enterprises are employing a three-dimensional investment framework to adapt to a fragmented global landscape, focusing on resilience, symbiotic logic, and innovative approaches [16]. - The differentiation in overseas direct investment (ODI) is evident, with Asia accounting for 52.3%, Europe 19.8%, and Africa 13.1% of the total investment, reflecting targeted sectoral strategies [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to experience explosive growth in 2025, driven by cornerstone investors, with international capital showing a significant rebound in demand for Chinese assets [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the Hong Kong main board completed 42 IPOs, raising a total of HKD 106.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of over 220%, making it the largest globally [1]. - Approximately 85% of new stocks successfully attracted cornerstone investors before listing, with an average of 4.4 cornerstone investors per IPO, and over 40% of projects securing more than five cornerstone institutions [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Trends - International long-term funds, such as pension and sovereign wealth funds, have resumed investments in Hong Kong stocks after several years of adjustment, driven by the attractiveness of undervalued assets, policy support, and innovation in the technology sector [1][2]. - The demand-supply ratio for Hong Kong IPOs this year averages 9%, significantly lower than the past five years' average of 25%, indicating improved public risk appetite [3]. Group 3: Sectoral Insights - The recovery of the Hong Kong IPO market is supported by multiple favorable factors, including regulatory and institutional optimizations, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange easing listing rules and promoting dual listings for A-share companies [2]. - High-demand sectors such as new energy, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine are accelerating IPO financing, with leading projects like CATL and BYD having a significant impact [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Hong Kong IPO market will remain active in the second half of the year, with total fundraising expected to exceed HKD 150 billion [2]. - The report emphasizes a strong correlation between the proportion of cornerstone investors (30%-50%) and post-IPO market performance, with high-growth technology stocks and stable consumer stocks continuing to attract capital [2].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is poised for a new bull market, but short-term risks should be monitored [1][3] Group 1: Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index may decline by 5% to 10% within the current quarter due to pressure on corporate earnings from President Trump's trade policies, but this pullback is expected to be "temporary and mild," providing a buying opportunity for investors [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 20% since its low in April, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $11.5 trillion [3] Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - Recent broad tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration are beginning to impact corporate balance sheets, with the third-quarter earnings season expected to reflect these effects for the first time [3] - The number of industries with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased, indicating that companies are gradually absorbing the impact of tariffs [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent market rally has been primarily driven by a few technology giants, while cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials have not fully participated [3] - If trade risks lead to a broader earnings revision, funds may shift from growth stocks to value stocks, resulting in a more balanced rise in the index components [3] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - The market oscillates between fear and greed, and the key is to distinguish between temporary pullbacks and structural bear markets, with corporate earnings trajectories serving as the ultimate judge [3]

Group 1 - Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. terminated its acquisition of Japan's Seven & i Holdings Co., leading to significant losses for investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley [1] - The acquisition was valued at 6.77 trillion yen (approximately 46 billion USD) and was expected to be the largest global merger by 2025 [1] - The failure of the deal is attributed to prolonged negotiations and Couche-Tard's claim of "meaningful negotiations" not taking place [1] Group 2 - Following the announcement, Seven & i's stock price fell by 9.16%, marking the largest single-day drop in three months [2] - Seven & i plans to maintain its independent operational strategy and aims for approximately 2 trillion yen in shareholder returns by the end of fiscal year 2030 through stock buybacks and strategic partnerships [2] - The failed acquisition also impacted other sectors, with Mitsui & Co. missing a chance to sell its 2% stake in Seven & i for about 1 billion USD [2] Group 3 - The Japanese M&A market saw a significant increase, with transaction volumes reaching 232 billion USD in the first half of 2025, more than doubling year-on-year [2] - This surge is driven by government reforms aimed at improving corporate governance and a low-interest-rate environment that encourages foreign investment and private equity activity [2][3] - Major Japanese companies like Toyota and NTT are pursuing privatization of listed subsidiaries, while investment banks are expanding their operations in Japan to capitalize on this trend [3]