Economic Policy and Measures - The State Council emphasizes the need to anchor annual development goals and enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, focusing on stimulating internal economic momentum [1][4] - Implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies aims to better stimulate consumption potential [1][7] Manufacturing Sector Performance - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining below the expansion threshold for four consecutive months [1][4] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - Despite weak demand, manufacturing production activities expanded, with a production index of 50.5%, although it decreased by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [6][9] Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [6] - The ex-factory price index for manufactured goods was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [6] Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for July was 52.6%, reflecting an increase in confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [8] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, indicating a mixed outlook across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion range [10] - The construction industry index was 50.6%, indicating a slowdown in construction activities due to seasonal weather impacts [10] Consumer Behavior and Seasonal Trends - Summer consumption effects began to show, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending intentions [11] - However, the accommodation and catering sectors remained below 50%, suggesting that summer spending was more focused on outdoor and entertainment activities rather than dining [13] Future Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to effectively release internal demand potential and implement actions to boost consumption [14] - The focus on service consumption is expected to play a crucial role in meeting public needs and driving consumption industry upgrades [14]

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [6] Price Trends - The raw materials purchase price index for manufacturing is at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [7] - The ex-factory price index is at 48.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [7] - Price stability in the manufacturing sector is primarily driven by the basic raw materials industry, with significant increases in both purchase and ex-factory price indices [7] Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [8] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 49.5% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic health across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [13] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [13] - Summer consumption shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to grow steadily [14] - Continued implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting demand is anticipated to support economic recovery in the second half of the year [9][16]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Manufacturing Performance - The foundation for economic recovery remains solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [2][3]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a "ballast" for the economy [2][3]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index, which rose above the critical point for the first time since March, reflects improved market conditions in certain industries [4]. Group 2: Impact of Anti-Competition Measures - The anti-competition measures have positively influenced corporate expectations, as indicated by rising indices for purchasing prices, output prices, employment, supplier delivery times, and production activity expectations [4][5]. - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 51.5%, while the output price index rose to 48.3%, showing significant recovery in specific sectors like petroleum and black metal processing [4]. Group 3: Consumer Activity and Seasonal Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline but showing initial signs of summer consumption boosting economic activity [6][7]. - Retail activity is on the rise, with the retail business activity index surpassing the critical point, and new order indices showing significant increases [7]. - Travel and leisure activities are also gaining momentum, with indices for railway and air transport exceeding 60%, indicating strong consumer willingness to travel [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The summer consumption boost is expected to continue into August, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][5][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI reflects a contraction, but the underlying economic recovery remains solid, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand [3][7]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a stabilizing force in the economy [3][7]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index indicates a positive shift in business expectations due to anti-involution measures [10][12]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, showing a slight decline but remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [2][14]. - Summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects, with significant increases in retail and travel activities, although the accommodation and catering sectors remain below the critical point [14][15][16]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand is expected to support stable economic growth and quality improvement in the second half of the year [8][17]. - Analysts predict that the positive impact of summer consumption will continue into August, contributing to a gradual increase in investment and consumption activities [16][17].

Core Points - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a decline but remaining above the critical point [1][3] - Economic recovery fundamentals remain solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI's decline is attributed to traditional production off-seasons and extreme weather events, leading to a weaker demand side [2][3] - Despite the overall PMI decline, production activities in manufacturing are still expanding, particularly in the equipment and high-tech sectors, which are crucial for economic growth [3][5] Price Indices - Among the 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the purchasing price index and the ex-factory price index have risen, indicating improved market conditions in certain sectors [5] - The main raw material purchasing price index has risen to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, suggesting a potential recovery in material costs [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline, but summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects in retail, travel, and entertainment sectors [7][9] - Retail activity is increasing, with the retail business activity index rising above the critical point, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [8] Future Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, is expected to support stable economic expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year [1][9] - The positive impact of summer consumption is anticipated to continue into August, contributing to economic recovery [9]

Economic Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in growth [1] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a tightening in market demand [3] - The new export orders index is reported at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, further highlighting weak demand [3] - Despite the demand weakness, the production index remains at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [3] - The raw material purchase price index has risen to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in raw material prices [3] Price Trends - The ex-factory price index for manufactured goods is at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [3] - The basic raw materials sector is driving the stabilization and recovery of market prices, with the purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52% [4] Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises show improvement with a PMI of 49.5%, and small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, indicating varying levels of economic health across different company sizes [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slowdown but still within the expansion range [8] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [8] - Consumer spending during the summer shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50% and 60%, respectively, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [9] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to continue steady growth [8][9] - The overall economic foundation remains solid, with expectations for continued stable expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies [5]

Group 1 - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][2] - The Composite PMI Output Index increased to 50.7%, marking a rise of 0.3 percentage points, suggesting overall economic improvement [1][2] Group 2 - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; however, small enterprises experienced a decline to 47.3%, down by 2 percentage points [3] - Various sub-indices showed positive changes, with production, new orders, and export orders indices rising between 0.2 to 2.6 percentage points, indicating a general recovery across different industries [4] - The logistics and procurement analyst noted that the slight PMI increase reflects the effectiveness of recent policies aimed at boosting demand, although the overall PMI remains below the growth threshold [4][5] Group 3 - The Non-Manufacturing PMI has consistently remained above 50% this year, with a new orders index of 46.6%, which has increased by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in demand [6][8] - In the construction sector, the Business Activity Index rose to over 52%, reflecting increased investment-related activities, supported by expanded special bond allocations [7] - The financial services sector also showed growth, with both the Business Activity Index and new orders index exceeding 60%, indicating heightened activity as the quarter ends [7] Group 4 - Overall, the average Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for the second quarter was 50.4%, similar to the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [8] - As policy benefits gradually materialize, investment and consumption-related demand are expected to continue to improve, enhancing the internal driving force of economic operations [8]

Economic Performance - Dapeng New District's GDP reached 10.894 billion, growing by 11.7%, ranking second in the city [1] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 1.453 billion, with a growth of 20.1%, ranking first in the city [1] - The industrial added value of above-scale enterprises increased by 14.5%, ranking third in the city [1] Industry Breakdown - The primary industry, industrial all-caliber added value, grew by 15.8%, ranking second in the city [1] - The secondary industry, profit-oriented service industry, achieved an unexpected double-digit growth with an added value growth rate of 10.2%, ranking first in the city [1] - The wholesale and retail industry saw an added value growth of 28.4%, ranking second in the city, while the accommodation and catering industry grew by 6.4%, ranking third [1] Service Sector - Above-scale service industry enterprises in Dapeng New District experienced strong growth, with operating income increasing by 12.3% [2] - The profit-oriented service industry showed remarkable performance, with operating income and operating profit growing by 12.4% and 83.2% respectively [2] Tourism Sector - Dapeng New District positioned tourism as a key driver for releasing consumption potential, leading to a 5.1% increase in tourist reception to 4.23 million and a 6.3% increase in tourism revenue to 2.73 billion [2] - The overnight tourist count increased by 5.1%, and inbound tourists grew by 7.3%, contributing to a 9.9% increase in the revenue of accommodation and catering industries [2] - Revenue from 23 high-end homestays surged by 116.2% year-on-year [2] Innovation and Export - Above-scale industrial enterprises' output value grew by 23.2%, with operating income increasing by 17.5% and sales output rising by 17.4%, indicating continuous optimization of production and sales efficiency [1] - R&D expenses saw a significant increase of 42%, highlighting the strengthening of corporate innovation [1] - Exports demonstrated resilience with a delivery value growth of 6.8% despite a complex external environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in April dropped to 49%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, reflecting a stable economic foundation despite external uncertainties [1][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points in April, attributed to external environmental changes and seasonal factors, as March is typically a peak season for manufacturing [1][2]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was significantly higher than the new export orders index, indicating stable domestic demand despite a decline in export orders [2]. - High-tech manufacturing sectors continued to expand, showing resilience in production activities [5]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating stable expansion [3]. - The construction sector showed robust activity, particularly in infrastructure, with the civil engineering business activity index rising over 5 percentage points to above 60% [3]. - Consumer sectors, including travel and leisure, experienced increased activity, with indices for air transport and entertainment rising above 55% and 51% respectively [3]. Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index was at 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating overall production expansion [5]. - Experts suggest that despite short-term disruptions from global uncertainties, the economic foundation remains solid, supported by a large domestic market and effective policy measures [2][4]. - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing remained high at over 56%, reflecting optimism among enterprises regarding future market conditions [4][6].

中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁 伟奥 国 家 统 计 局 最 新 数 据 显 示 ， 2 0 2 5 年 4 月 份 ， 我 国 制 造 业 采 购 经 理 指 数 （PMI）为4 9 . 0%（前值50 . 5%），美国滥施关税影响初现。不过4月政 治局会议已经给出三大重要信号：一是保持国内储备政策的弹性；二是强 化底线思维，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期；三是加紧加快既定 政策的落实落地，加大加力重点领域的政策实施力度。 以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 国家统计局4月30日发布数据显示，2025年4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%（前值50.5%）。建筑业商务活动指数为51.9%，比上月下降1.5个百 分点；服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。关税的影响已全面传导至制造业企业。 供需同时收缩，出口影响较为严峻。 4月生产指数49.8%（前值52.6%）。新订单指数49.2%，新出口订单44.7%，分别下降2.6和4.3pct。4月需求下降较大， 尤其是新出口订单 ...