Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [7] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [8] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating and bullish [12] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Central Financial Conference emphasizes phased elimination of outdated production capacity, strengthening investors' expectations of supply contraction in the silicon market. Meanwhile, disruptions in domestic lithium supply, with major lithium mines in Jiangxi halting production, have increased the risk of supply disruptions and driven up lithium prices. In the short - to - medium term, expectations of supply contraction and rising costs support the prices of new energy metals. In the long term, if there is no substantial supply contraction or significant improvement in demand, silicon prices may decline, and high growth in lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: As of August 11, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory was 439,900 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. The monthly output in July was 338,000 tons, a 3.2% increase from the previous month and a 30.6% decrease from the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative production was 2.21 million tons, a 20% decrease from the same period last year. In June, the export volume was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% increase from the previous month and an 11.6% increase from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 340,705 tons, a 6.6% decrease from the same period last year [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon continues to recover. In August, the supply pressure may further increase. Demand shows some improvement, but the increase in demand from the aluminum alloy sector is limited. With the continuous recovery of supply, social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate [7] - **Outlook**: In the short term, silicon prices will continue to oscillate due to macro - sentiment and coal prices. The resumption of production by large enterprises will be crucial, and concentrated resumptions may further suppress prices [8] 2. Polysilicon - **Price and Trade**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feedstock was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous week. The latest polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 4,700 lots, an increase of 1,080 lots from the previous value. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% increase from the previous month and a 39.67% decrease from the same period last year. From January to June, the export volume was 11,389.98 tons, a 7.23% decrease from the same period last year. In June, the import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% increase from the previous month. From January to June, the import volume was 11,209.78 tons, a 47.59% decrease from the same period last year [8] - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic factors and rising coal prices have led to wide - range fluctuations in polysilicon prices. Supply is expected to increase in August. In the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - cut - throat competition policies will restrict supply. Demand may weaken in the second half of the year due to the high growth in the first half [11] - **Outlook**: Anti - cut - throat competition policies have significantly boosted polysilicon prices. The implementation of policies needs to be monitored, and if policy expectations fade, prices may reverse [12] 3. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: On August 8, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 5.25% to 81,000 yuan, hitting the daily limit. The total open interest increased by 1,676 lots to 783,699 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,600 yuan to 74,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,500 yuan to 72,300 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 910 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 77,300 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 560 tons to 19,389 tons [12] - **Main Logic**: The production cut at Ningde Times' Jiaxiawo Mine has become the focus of market speculation. Fundamentally, production has rebounded, and the mine's shutdown will reduce weekly ore supply by over 2,000 tons of LCE. Demand is stable, and social inventory is slightly increasing. In the future, a significant supply - demand gap may emerge, but high prices may stimulate supply [12] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand gap caused by the shutdown is expected to keep prices oscillating and bullish [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The current period is seen as an investment opportunity for the gold sector, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][12][13] - Economic indicators suggest that maintaining high growth is challenging, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [14] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with expectations of rising inflation due to the depletion of low-cost inventories [15] Summary by Sections Gold Sector - The gold sector is viewed as a timely investment opportunity, with recent employment data indicating a shift towards lower growth expectations, enhancing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [13][14] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 20.1%, which is expected to further influence inflation in the coming quarters [15] Steel Sector - The steel industry is experiencing short-term profit fluctuations but is expected to stabilize and recover in the medium term due to the "anti-involution" policy [16] - Steel consumption has increased by 3.63% week-on-week, while production has shown a mixed trend with a notable rise in rebar production [21][18] - Overall steel inventory has risen, but structural improvements in demand are anticipated [23] - The cost of steel production is expected to stabilize, with short-term cost reduction potential diminishing [27] - Steel prices are projected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy [36] New Energy Metals - The production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95%, indicating strong supply dynamics [41] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial growth [45] - Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have generally increased, reflecting strong market conditions [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - Precious Metals: China has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, with a total of 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces. The market is influenced by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [3][12] - Industrial Metals: The seasonal peak is approaching, and attention should be paid to the pace of inventory reduction. Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices may experience fluctuations due to seasonal factors [4][14] - New Energy Metals: The mining operation at Jiangxiawo has been confirmed to be suspended with no plans for resumption in the short term. The lithium market is expected to remain strong due to resilient demand despite supply disruptions [19] - Other Minor Metals: The prices of rare earths are showing slight weakness, but there is limited downside potential in the short term due to existing supply gaps [20] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Precious Metals: Continuous increase in gold reserves by China and rising expectations for a Fed rate cut [11] - Industrial Metals: Seasonal peak approaching, focus on inventory reduction [14] - New Energy Metals: Suspension of mining operations at Jiangxiawo [19] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earth prices showing slight weakness [20] 2. Weekly Review - The non-ferrous index rose by 5.8%, with gold showing the largest increase among sub-sectors [24][28] - Notable stock performances include Kexin New Energy (+53.05%) and West Materials (-12.66%) [26] 3. Major Events - Macro: Trump criticizes Powell for delayed rate cuts; China's July PPI decreased by 3.6% [39] - Industry: China continues to increase gold reserves; Jiangxiawo mining operation confirmed to be suspended [44] 4. Non-Ferrous Metal Prices and Inventory - Industrial Metals: Copper and aluminum prices remain stable with copper inventory increasing [47] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are rising due to a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the fundamental verification stage. China's July import and export data exceeded expectations, but the export is still under pressure due to the upcoming "reciprocal tariff 2.0", and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations needs to be continuously monitored. The US has imposed a series of new tariffs, and Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, which will have a certain impact on the market. The UK central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there are internal differences due to the increasing inflation risk. Putin said that he may meet with Trump in the UAE [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 deployed the economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for continuous and timely strengthening of macro policies and more moderate "anti-involution" policies. China's official manufacturing PMI in July fell to 49.3, and the new order index fell to 49.4, while the non-manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's foreign exchange reserves in July decreased by 0.76% month-on-month, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in US dollars, mainly supported by the low base last year and the "rush to export" effect under tariff uncertainty. Imports increased by 4.1%, with significant growth in the imports of integrated circuits, copper ore concentrates, and high-tech products [1] Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset the "reciprocal tariff" rate standards for some countries. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and the EU's chip exports to the US are subject to a 15% tariff cap. The US economic data in July was not as expected, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy continued to drag down business activities. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year [2] Commodity Segments - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies should be closely monitored. The supply constraints in the non-ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and the impact of tariff implementation on demand expectations needs to be followed. In the short term, the geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ accelerated production increase, agreeing to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, PVC, caustic soda, urea and other products is also worthy of attention. There is no short-term weather disturbance in agricultural products, and the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [3] Key News - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by $25.2 billion to $3.2922 trillion compared with the end of June, a decrease of 0.76%. China's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces in July, the ninth consecutive month of increase. China's exports in July increased by 8% year-on-year in RMB and 7.2% in US dollars, while imports increased by 4.8% in RMB and 4.1% in US dollars. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and will sign an executive order to allow 401K accounts to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies and private equity funds. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Putin said he may meet with Trump in the UAE [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][5][9] Core Viewpoints - Cost stabilization, recovery, and policy expectations support the high - level consolidation of new energy metals. The supply - side contraction and cost increase expectations in the short - to - medium - term support the prices, but the expected output increase limits the upward space. For Jiangxi lithium mines, before official news on production cuts, one can cautiously bet on short - term potential upward opportunities for lithium through options. Industrial silicon and polysilicon face high production capacity and output but weak demand, and their price increases are slowing down [1] - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating; the polysilicon price has wide - range fluctuations; the direction of the lithium carbonate market is unclear, and the price is oscillating [2][5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating. The medium - term outlook is also oscillating [5] - **Information Analysis**: As of August 6, the spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon fluctuated. The domestic inventory increased slightly, with the factory inventory rising by 0.4% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output was 338,000 tons, a 3.2% month - on - month increase but a 30.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the cumulative output was 2.21 million tons, a 20.0% year - on - year decrease. In June, the export volume was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export was 340,705 tons, a 6.6% year - on - year decrease. In June, the domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 14.36GW, a 38.45% year - on - year decrease; from January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a 107.07% year - on - year increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some industrial silicon contracts [5] - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon is continuously recovering, and the supply pressure may further increase in August. The demand has improved month - on - month, but the inventory and warehouse receipts may continue to accumulate. The silicon price is currently affected by macro - sentiment and coal price fluctuations and is expected to oscillate in the short term. If large factories resume production intensively, it may further suppress the price [6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the polysilicon price has wide - range fluctuations. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [6] - **Information Analysis**: The transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a 0.21% week - on - week increase. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 70. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% month - on - month increase but a 39.67% year - on - year decrease; from January to June 2025, the cumulative export was 11,389.98 tons, a 7.23% year - on - year decrease. In June, the import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% month - on - month increase; from January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 11,209.78 tons, a 47.59% year - on - year decrease. From January to June 2025, the domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 212.21GW, a 107% year - on - year increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted relevant contract parameters [6][7] - **Main Logic**: Macro - sentiment and coal price fluctuations cause wide - range price fluctuations. The supply is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term, and the demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has a significant impact on the price, and if the policy expectations fade, the price may reverse [8][9] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The market direction is unclear, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [9] - **Information Analysis**: On August 6, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.62%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 760 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 67,800 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 580 tons [9] - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment has cooled, but supply uncertainties remain. The fundamentals have improved slightly, with production decreasing slightly and demand being stable. The social inventory has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory is in line with expectations. The domestic supply - demand is generally balanced in the third quarter, but high prices may stimulate supply. The price may rise if market sentiment recovers, and it will be affected by the outcome of mine shutdowns [10] 行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content for this part [11][17][28]

Group 1 - The Guangdong provincial government has reported significant achievements in the implementation of the "Nansha Plan" over the past three years, focusing on enhancing cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau [1][2] - The strategic emerging industries' added value now accounts for 37.8% of GDP, while the advanced manufacturing industry's added value represents 75.9% of the regulated industrial output [1] - Tax incentives have resulted in a cumulative tax reduction of 16.2 billion yuan due to a 15% corporate income tax policy [1] Group 2 - The number of Hong Kong and Macau investment enterprises has increased by nearly 1,000, with 15 youth entrepreneurship bases established and 2,336 projects incubated [2] - The Nansha Port's container throughput has surpassed 20 million TEUs, ranking among the top ten single ports globally [2] - The population of young talents in Nansha has grown significantly, with over 70,000 young talents added in the past year, representing more than 40% of the resident population [3] Group 3 - Nansha has introduced a new model for cross-border social security services, with an annual growth of 18% in the number of insured individuals from Hong Kong and Macau [2] - The education system in Nansha has expanded to include a comprehensive Hong Kong-style education framework, with enrollment of Hong Kong and Macau students doubling over the past three years [2] - Future initiatives will focus on deepening cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau through five connectivity strategies to support the Greater Bay Area's development [3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market [6] Core Views - Precious metals are under pressure due to a strong dollar and hawkish comments from Powell, with gold prices expected to remain volatile in the short term, while long-term trends may support price increases due to potential Fed rate cuts and inflation concerns [11][12] - Industrial metals are in a tight supply-demand balance, making prices more likely to rise than fall, with copper and aluminum expected to see upward price movements in the medium term [13][15] - In the new energy metals sector, lithium prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions, although a long-term supply-demand reversal has not yet occurred [20] - Other minor metals, particularly rare earths, are showing positive price trends supported by recovering demand and supply constraints [21] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The gold market is facing significant pressure from a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, with prices expected to fluctuate [11] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies such as Zhaojin Mining and Zijin Mining for potential investment opportunities [12] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to recent tariff implementations, but a long-term upward trend is anticipated due to a tight supply-demand balance [14] - Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise in the medium term due to seasonal demand increases [15] - Suggested stocks for copper include Baima Jincheng and Luoyang Molybdenum, while for aluminum, focus on Yun Aluminum and Huadong [16][19] New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to rise in the short term due to supply disruptions, with a focus on strategic stock investments in companies like Yongxing Materials and Salt Lake Resources [20] - The demand for lithium is currently mixed, with a slowdown in electric vehicle consumption noted [20] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are expected to rise due to recovering demand and supply constraints, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium [21] - The tungsten market is experiencing price stagnation due to conflicting supply and demand dynamics [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [6] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [10][12] 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to exchange position limits and fluctuating supply - side expectations, new energy metals maintain high - level oscillations. The contraction expectation and cost increase expectation of the supply side support the prices of new energy metals, but the position limits and unconfirmed news lead to repeated capital expectations, causing high - level oscillations in prices [1]. - For industrial silicon, there is a game between sentiment and reality, and silicon prices continue to fluctuate. For polysilicon, market sentiment is volatile, leading to increased price fluctuations. For lithium carbonate, the market direction is unclear, and it oscillates [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Information analysis: As of July 31, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory was 442,900 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase. In June 2025, the monthly output was 327,000 tons, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 27.7% year - on - year decrease. The export volume in June was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% month - on - month increase and an 11.6% year - on - year increase. The domestic photovoltaic new installation in June was 14.36GW, a 38.45% year - on - year decrease. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some industrial silicon contracts [6]. - Main logic: On the supply side, the submerged arc furnaces of large northwest factories that were under maintenance have recently resumed production, and the resumption of production in the southwest has accelerated. In the short term, the reduction in the northwest still dominates supply changes, but domestic supply may gradually recover. On the demand side, it is still weak year - on - year but shows marginal improvement. The inventory of warehouse receipts has a certain support for silicon prices, but the rate of reduction has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: Silicon factories have a strong willingness to hold prices, and prices have moved up. Macro sentiment and coal prices drive silicon prices to continue to oscillate in the short term. The subsequent resumption rhythm and intensity in the northwest need further observation [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Information analysis: The transaction price of N - type re - feed material was in the range of 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,100 yuan/ton, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 3,200 lots, an increase of 130 lots. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% month - on - month increase and a 39.67% year - on - year decrease. The import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% month - on - month increase. The domestic photovoltaic new installation from January to June 2025 was 212.21GW, a 107% year - on - year increase [7]. - Main logic: Macroscopically, market risk sentiment has declined, and polysilicon prices have fallen again due to exchange position limits. In terms of supply, with the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity in the southwest has increased. It is expected that the output will continue to rise in July - August. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit supply. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation in the first five months increased significantly, but it over - consumed the demand for the second half of the year, and the demand may weaken. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand situation of polysilicon, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment and policy implementation [9][10]. - Outlook: The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted polysilicon prices. If the policy expectation is falsified, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Information analysis: On July 31, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 3.29% to 68,280 yuan, and the total open interest decreased by 27,750 lots to 699,164 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade decreased by 950 yuan to 69,900 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 785 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 69,500 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts decreased by 7,586 tons to 5,545 tons [10][11]. - Main logic: Currently, the supply - demand drivers are not strong, and market sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, there are few changes. The weekly output has slightly decreased, mainly due to production cuts in salt lakes and mica mines. The demand is not significantly higher than expected, and the production schedule in August is relatively stable. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the remaining amount of warehouse receipt inventory after centralized cancellation meets expectations. The willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has recovered as prices rise, and warehouse receipts may gradually recover in August. In general, the domestic supply - demand is in a rough balance in the third quarter, but high prices may stimulate supply. The core factors affecting the market are the anti - involution sentiment and the progress of mining license issues. Before the result of mine shutdown is confirmed, if market sentiment recovers, the price may rise. If the shutdown is falsified, it will return to fundamental trading; if confirmed, it will cause a large gap in the third quarter and drive prices up [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support the price, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [6] - Lithium Carbonate: Oscillating [9] Core Views of the Report - Exchange position limits and repeated supply - side expectations have led to significant fluctuations in new - energy metals. For lithium in Jiangxi, without official confirmation of production cuts, caution is needed when using futures to bet on long or short positions. Options can be used to cautiously bet on potential lithium price increases. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, if there is no substantial contraction on the supply - side or significant improvement on the demand - side, prices may fall [1]. - Market sentiment for industrial silicon has cooled, leading to a sharp decline in prices; a significant drop in coal prices has caused polysilicon prices to fall; market sentiment for lithium carbonate has been volatile, with the contract hitting the daily limit down [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of July 28, SMM data shows that the spot price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 9950 yuan/ton, and 421 is 10200 yuan/ton. The latest domestic inventory is 442,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. In June, the monthly output was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. In June, exports were 68,323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%. In June, domestic photovoltaic new installations were 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45% [5]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, large northwest factories' previously overhauled furnaces have recently resumed production, and southwest factories are accelerating resumption. On the demand side, it is still weak year - on - year but shows marginal improvement. The reduction in the northwest still dominates short - term supply changes, but domestic supply may gradually recover. The inventory of warehouse receipts provides some support, but the speed of reduction has slowed down [5]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment decline, rapid coal price drop, and further supply recovery have weakened price support, suppressing the upside space [6]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 46,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.2%. In May, exports were about 2,097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. In May, imports were about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9%. From January to June 2025, domestic photovoltaic new installations were 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The significant decline in coal prices last Friday led to a drop in polysilicon prices. On the supply side, production capacity in the southwest is rising with the arrival of the wet season. On the demand side, although photovoltaic installations increased significantly from January to May, it has overdrafted the demand for the second half of the year, and subsequent demand may weaken [7]. - **Outlook**: Anti - involution policies have significantly boosted polysilicon prices. Attention should be paid to policy implementation. If the policy expectations are false, prices may fluctuate in the opposite direction [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On July 28, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract decreased by 9.19% to 73,120 yuan, and the total contract positions decreased by 107,784 to 800,394 hands. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 1000 yuan to 73,900 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade increased by 1000 yuan to 71,700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Main Logic**: Current supply - demand drivers are weak, and market sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, there are few changes. In the third quarter, domestic supply - demand is generally balanced, but high prices may stimulate supply. The core factors affecting the market are anti - involution sentiment and the progress of mining license issues. Before the result of mine shutdown is clear, if market sentiment recovers, prices may rise. There is high short - term uncertainty, and options are recommended for speculation [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support prices, and prices are expected to oscillate [9].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand imbalance is catalyzing a bull market for minor metals, with prices for tungsten, cobalt, and rare earths expected to continue rising [4] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise in the second half of the year due to downstream enterprises beginning to replenish inventory and the ongoing export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] - Tungsten prices have increased by 3.30% this week, with black tungsten concentrate prices nearing 190,000 yuan/ton, a 25.33% increase from May's low [5] - The demand for tungsten is bolstered by a significant increase in military orders, with the Ministry of Defense announcing a total of 978 billion yuan in new military orders for the 2025 fiscal year, a 16.8% year-on-year increase [5] - Lithium prices have surged due to optimistic supply expectations, with recommendations to buy on dips as prices may recover to 80,000-90,000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.9%, ranking second among sectors [15] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals: LME copper decreased by 1.03%, aluminum by 0.79%, zinc by 0.86%, lead increased by 0.30%, and tin by 0.65% [20] - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell by 3.06%, silver by 3.37%, while nickel decreased by 0.39% and cobalt increased by 0.82% [20] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventory changes: copper decreased by 895 tons, aluminum increased by 6,166 tons, zinc increased by 374 tons, and lead increased by 3,675 tons [27]