Core Viewpoint - China's recent countermeasures against countries perceived as adversaries have shifted the narrative, with some Western experts now predicting that China will emerge as the next global leader [1][20][29]. Group 1: Countermeasures Against Adversaries - On August 12, China's Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping preliminary ruling against Canadian canola seeds, imposing a 75.8% tariff, which directly impacts Canada's agricultural sector [1][8]. - Japan faced a similar fate with a 26% to 40% anti-dumping duty on halogenated butyl rubber, a critical material for vaccine vials, causing panic among Japanese chemical companies [4][8]. - Two EU banks in Lithuania were added to China's countermeasure list, prohibiting domestic institutions from engaging in transactions with them, highlighting the repercussions of Lithuania's alignment with U.S. anti-China policies [6][8]. Group 2: Reactions from Affected Countries - The Canadian agricultural sector reacted urgently to the tariffs, while Japanese chemical firms began to express concern over their market positions [8]. - Within the EU, there are emerging doubts regarding the decisions made to align with U.S. sanctions, as these actions could adversely affect European businesses [14][18]. Group 3: Expert Predictions and Analysis - Melamed, a prominent figure in the financial sector, stated that China is poised to become the next world leader, citing its rapid development and innovation capabilities [20][23]. - Historical patterns indicate that shifts in global power dynamics are often driven by changes in production capabilities, with China's manufacturing output now surpassing that of the U.S., Japan, and Germany combined [27][39]. - The combination of China's large population, robust education system, and strategic economic policies positions it favorably for future leadership [29][31]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - China's response to U.S. chip tracking and allied nations' actions has been characterized by a measured approach, utilizing WTO rules for trade remedies rather than emotional reactions [31][39]. - The decision to open rare earth exports to the U.S. under strict conditions reflects a sophisticated strategy that balances cooperation with assertiveness [35][39]. - The ongoing discussions about de-dollarization among various nations indicate a growing recognition of China's economic influence and the potential for a shift away from U.S. dollar dominance [37][39].

Group 1 - Canada has implemented steel tariff quota measures and imposed discriminatory tariffs on products containing "Chinese steel components," leading China to file a lawsuit at the WTO on August 15 [1][5] - The trade dispute between China and Canada has escalated, with China recently announcing temporary anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds [1][5] - The Canadian government has been facing challenges in its trade relations with China since the previous Trudeau administration imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [1][3] Group 2 - Canada has expanded its steel tariff quota and tightened existing quotas, imposing additional taxes on imports exceeding the quota, particularly targeting products containing Chinese steel [3][5] - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and Canada is projected to be approximately CAD 120 billion, with significant steel import and export figures [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has criticized Canada's actions as unilateralism and trade protectionism, which disrupts the stability of global steel supply chains [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imported canola seeds from Canada, concluding that there is dumping and substantial damage to the domestic canola seed industry, with a causal relationship between the two [1][2][3] Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation was officially announced on September 9, 2024, under the Anti-Dumping Regulations of the People's Republic of China [1] - The preliminary ruling determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are being dumped, causing significant harm to the domestic industry [2][3] - The Ministry of Commerce has stated that the investigation was conducted transparently and fairly, adhering to relevant laws and WTO rules [3] Group 2: Preliminary Ruling and Measures - A preliminary anti-dumping duty of 75.8% will be imposed on all Canadian companies starting from August 14, 2025, calculated based on the customs-determined taxable price [2] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the presence of government subsidies and preferential policies in Canada's agricultural sector, particularly in the canola seed industry, which distorts market supply and demand [3] - The Ministry will continue to conduct the investigation and ensure the rights of all stakeholders are protected, aiming for an objective and fair final ruling [3]

Group 1 - Canada imposed significant tariffs and quotas on Chinese steel imports, including a 25% tariff, a 50% quota reduction, and a 50% penalty tax [1][4][9] - The U.S. steel imports account for 50% of Canada's steel imports and enjoy zero tariffs, while Chinese steel, which only accounts for 10%, is targeted for harsh penalties [11][24] - The Canadian government, facing a trade deficit of CAD 7.1 billion and a 15.7% drop in steel exports, is under pressure to find a scapegoat for its economic troubles [6][4][24] Group 2 - The Canadian government's digital services tax has negatively impacted U.S. tech giants, leading to a backlash from the U.S. and forcing Canada to navigate a delicate trade relationship [4][20] - The steel industry in Canada is struggling, with over 40,000 jobs at risk, prompting the government to shift blame to China rather than addressing U.S. trade policies [7][24] - The Canadian steel producers' association supports the government's actions against China, believing it will help regain market share [9][24] Group 3 - China's response to Canada's tariffs included imposing a 100% tariff on Canadian canola and halting large-scale imports, significantly impacting Canadian farmers [33][31] - Canada is heavily reliant on China for its canola exports, with 70% of its canola being sold to China, making the agricultural sector vulnerable to trade disputes [29][31] - The crisis in the canola industry has led to financial distress for farmers, with unsold products and plummeting prices [35][33] Group 4 - The trade tensions have resulted in a mixed impact on Canadian stock markets, with steel stocks rising while agricultural sectors face declines [54][52] - The Canadian government's approach to trade, particularly its targeting of China, is seen as shortsighted and detrimental to its own economic interests [51][56] - The overall economic landscape in Canada is shifting, with potential long-term consequences for both the steel and agricultural industries due to the ongoing trade disputes [58][56]

Group 1 - Canada announced a 25% tariff on Chinese steel products, reflecting a protectionist stance amid rising tensions with the U.S. [1][3] - The Canadian steel industry faces potential job losses due to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, prompting Canada to take measures against Chinese imports [3][10] - Canadian companies have shifted their procurement focus to the U.S. and Mexico due to rising steel prices, undermining the domestic steel industry's position [6][10] Group 2 - The agreement between China and Australia for the supply of canola seeds indicates a warming relationship, while Canada risks losing its market share in China [9][15] - Canada's agricultural sector, particularly canola, is under threat due to the loss of orders from China, exacerbated by ongoing drought conditions [10][13] - China's diversified trade strategy and self-sufficiency in oilseed production position it well against Canadian tariffs, while Canada struggles to find alternative markets [15][18] Group 3 - Canada's foreign policy appears contradictory, as it seeks to maintain relations with the U.S. while lacking independent diplomatic support [17][18] - The Canadian government's actions may ultimately harm its own economy, highlighting the need for a reassessment of its global supply chain and trade relationships [18]

Group 1 - The trade negotiations between the US and Canada have reached a deadlock, with the US imposing a 35% tariff on all Canadian goods starting August 1, which has put pressure on the new Canadian Prime Minister Carney [1] - In response to US pressure, Canada has taken a hard stance against China, demanding the cessation of operations of Hikvision Canada under the pretext of "national security" [1] - Canada announced a limit on steel imports from countries without a free trade agreement with Canada, including China, capping imports at half of the 2024 volume, with tariffs up to 50% on excess amounts [1][2] Group 2 - Canada has decided to impose an additional 25% tariff on products from all non-US countries, particularly targeting steel products from China, to protect its domestic steel industry [2] - The Canadian government's actions appear to be aimed at appeasing the US while disappointing China, indicating a shift in Canada's trade policy [2] Group 3 - Despite efforts to improve relations, including increased imports of Canadian crude oil, Canada has continued its aggressive stance, leading to a deterioration in China-Canada relations [4] - China has significantly increased its imports of Canadian crude oil to 7.3 million barrels, a record high, in an attempt to foster cooperation [4] Group 4 - Australia is reportedly close to an agreement allowing its suppliers to export canola seeds to China, which could total between 150,000 to 250,000 tons, signaling a potential shift in trade dynamics [6] - This move by China to allow Australian canola imports is seen as a response to Canada's actions and a way to strengthen ties with Australia [6] Group 5 - Canada, previously a major supplier of canola seeds to China, has seen its market share threatened due to its previous tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which damaged trade relations [9] - China's shift in canola seed contracts from Canada to Australia serves as a warning to Canada about the consequences of its trade policies [9]

Group 1 - Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,650 CNY/ton for June, with the first round inquiry price at 5,500 CNY/ton, down from 5,850 CNY/ton in May [1] - As of June 19, rebar production has turned from decline to increase, with factory inventory decreasing for the fourth consecutive week and social inventory decreasing for the fifteenth consecutive week [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -23 CNY/ton, with Shanxi's first-grade coke averaging -3 CNY/ton and Shandong's first-grade coke averaging 31 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - Brazilian shipping agency Williams reported that the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports is 2.8539 million tons, down from 2.9104 million tons the previous week [1] - The Canadian Grain Commission reported that as of June 15, canola exports decreased by 17.05% week-on-week to 131,400 tons [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% to 6,988,700 heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5-month high [1] Group 3 - The Singapore Enterprise Development Agency (ESG) reported that as of June 18, fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased by 2.211 million barrels to 21.503 million barrels, the lowest in five weeks [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 40,400 tons week-on-week (+2.40%), with an increase of 17,200 tons compared to Monday [1] - On June 19, the auction for battery-grade lithium carbonate ended, with 300 tons from Ronghui Lithium Industry and 300 tons from Yongshan Lithium Industry sold at prices of 59,910 CNY/ton and 60,010 CNY/ton respectively [2] Group 4 - Insiders indicate that the photovoltaic industry is expected to see a greater reduction in production in the third quarter, with the operating rate expected to decrease by 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter [2]