机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/石狄/刘思奇 近期泡泡玛特股价回调明显，已较8 月26 日高点下跌近25%，其主因或是市场对部分热门产品二手价格 下降及热度可持续性的过度担忧。我们认为二手价格并非衡量热度的合理指标，本轮溢价调整主要由供 给扩张驱动，而非需求侧的变化。公司产能爬坡带来供求关系的再平衡，预示着公司"艺术平权"成功路 径的复归，奠定中长期持续健康成长的良好根基。经过本轮调整，筹码结构有望长线化，我们建议积极 把握布局机会，上调盈利预测并维持"买入"评级。 二手价变化由供给而非需求驱动，供需平衡利好粉丝生态茁壮成长对于近期公司Labubu 二手价格的波 动，我们与市场不同观点如下：1）Labubu 3.0 近期二手价回落主因供给提升，并不反映热度变化。依 据在于，不受产能变化影响的Labubu 盲盒手办、万圣限定毛绒等的二手价稳中有增，体现IP 热度坚 挺。目前3.0 二手价已趋于稳定；2）公司在艺术家IP 潮玩市场断层领先，具备品牌定位的独占性、供 给把控的主动权，且IP 的品类载体具备高度可拓展性，不断延长生命周期，这与积木熊、潮鞋等其他 潮品明显不同；3）公司2016 年通过盲盒手办的首轮崛起 ...

Market Overview - On September 18, 2025, the Hong Kong stock market recorded a total trading volume of HKD 413.31 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 6.288 billion [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.35% at 26,544.85, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.99% to 6,271.22 [5][7] Industry Insights - The recent announcement by Huawei regarding the evolution and goals of its Ascend chips over the next three years has positively impacted the semiconductor sector, leading to a significant rise in the Wind Hong Kong Semiconductor Index [2][7] - The performance of leading toy companies in Hong Kong has driven the Wind Hong Kong Durable Consumer Goods Index upward, attributed to the strengthening of their IP matrix, expectations of a consumption peak season, and a technical rebound from previous declines [2][7] Sector Performance - Among the major sectors, basic chemicals (+2.10%), pharmaceuticals (+0.31%), and defense industry (+0.10%) led the gains, while the comprehensive sector (-6.98%), coal (-2.47%), and media (-2.42%) faced declines [5][7] - Concept indices such as online education (+11.61%), financial IC (+8.49%), and Foxconn (+6.14%) showed strong performance, while local brokerage (-5.65%), liquor (-3.16%), and Wanda shares (-2.96%) lagged [5][7] Future Outlook - The report suggests three potential directions for the Hong Kong stock market to reach new highs: 1) AI technology and new consumption are expected to drive market growth, 2) continued inflows from southbound funds will enhance pricing power, and 3) improvements in global liquidity due to potential further rate cuts by the US could support market growth [2][7]

| 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 | 序号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | HSI | 恒生指数 | 26544.85c | -363.54 | -1.35% | 4133亿 | 32.33% | | | 2 | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | 6271.22c | -63.02 | -0.99% | 1506亿 | 40.36% 2 | | | 3 | HSBIO | 恒生生物科技 | 17442.48c | 93.13 | 0.54% | 202亿 | 102.32% 3 | | | 4 | HSCEI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9456.52c | -140.25 | -1.46% | 1617亿 | 29.72% 4 | | | 5 | HSCI | 恒生综合指数 | 4080.37c | -53.18 | -1.29% | 3084亿 | 36.77% 5 | | 周期股全线下挫，大金融普跌。其中，香港交易所跌超3%；半导体、机器人产业链逆市走强，华虹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant net inflows from northbound trading, with a total net purchase of HKD 62.88 billion on September 18, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks [1] Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading through Stock Connect (Shanghai) recorded a net purchase of HKD 19.07 billion, while the Shenzhen Connect saw a net purchase of HKD 43.82 billion [1] - The most purchased stocks included Meituan-W (03690) with a net inflow of HKD 14.12 billion, Alibaba-W (09988) with HKD 12.1 billion, and Pop Mart (09992) with HKD 12.07 billion [3][4] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Meituan-W (03690) launched its international food delivery brand Keeta in Kuwait, achieving top downloads in the food and beverage category on both iOS and Google Play, indicating strong user growth in the Middle East [3] - Alibaba-W (09988) received a boost from Goldman Sachs' report highlighting significant advancements in AI infrastructure and models in China, including the launch of Alibaba's Qwen3-Next [3] - Pop Mart (09992) is viewed positively by Huayuan Securities, which noted that recent stock price adjustments are normal market fluctuations, and the company is expected to continue high-quality growth due to its strong IP capabilities and expanding overseas business [4] Group 3: Selling Activity - Semiconductor stocks faced net sell-offs, with SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) experiencing net outflows of HKD 2.77 billion and HKD 11.64 billion, respectively, as companies like Alibaba and Baidu shift towards self-designed chips for AI model training [6] - Tencent (00700) also faced a net sell-off of HKD 4.18 billion, reflecting a broader trend of investor caution in the tech sector [7]

量子之歌集团董事长李鹏表示，"第四季度标志着公司战略转型的关键落地，潮玩业务首次披露即展现 强劲成长性，自营模式加速推进，公司进入产品驱动发展阶段。未来我们将全面聚焦潮玩赛道，通过IP 矩阵扩容、自营渠道深化与国际化拓展，持续构建品牌力和用户触达能力，为股东创造长期价值。" 据悉，量子之歌通过三大策略持续增强IP储备与市场渗透：一是加大原创投入，于北京、杭州、深圳设 立设计中心，有效加速IP产品迭代与创意转化；二是推进IP授权合作，拓展不同风格、品类与区域的独 家授权机会，并与艺术家共创首发产品；三是深化跨界合作，公司已与体育、娱乐和消费品牌展开深度 联动：WAKUKU成为2025中国网球公开赛首个且唯一官方合作潮玩，Letsvan奇梦岛同步成为赛事市场 核心合作伙伴，实现行业内潮玩与国际顶级体育赛事的首次深度融合；此外，公司与环球影城、元气森 林、北京时装周以及热门剧集《赴山海》建立合作，进一步拓宽IP价值边界。 9月17日，量子之歌（NASDAQ:QSG）公布截至2025年6月30日的2025财年第四季度及全年财报。随着 公司全面聚焦潮玩业务，战略转型进入关键落地期，潮玩业务首次披露即展现成长性，标志着向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the business models of two companies, Moutai and Pop Mart, comparing their profitability and sustainability, ultimately suggesting that both have strong business models but differ in market dynamics and future potential [2][3][8]. Profitability Metrics - Moutai has a gross margin of 90% and a net margin of 50%, making it one of the best globally [3]. - Pop Mart has a gross margin of 70% and a net margin of 35%, ranking among the top five but not surpassing Moutai [3]. Sustainability of Business Models - The white liquor market is expected to face a decline in consumer demographics, which poses challenges for Moutai in maintaining or increasing market share [5]. - Pop Mart has the potential for better sustainability due to its broader market appeal and the ability to tap into international markets, particularly the U.S. [6][7]. Market Opportunities - Pop Mart's IP, labubu, is considered significantly undervalued, with the potential to contribute substantial value alongside a matrix of top-tier IPs [6]. - The U.S. market is viewed as a major opportunity, with potential revenues estimated to be 2-3 times that of the domestic market, given the higher average revenue per store [6]. Management Quality - Moutai's management is seen as competent but not as strong as that of leading global companies like Apple [10]. - Pop Mart's management is viewed favorably, with aspirations to reach the level of Apple in the future [11]. Valuation Comparison - Current static PE ratios are approximately 25 for Pop Mart and 20 for Moutai, indicating they are in a similar valuation range [11]. - Both companies are expected to show stable performance in the short term, with earnings serving as a lower bound for future performance [11]. Revenue Growth Potential - Pop Mart is projected to reach 50 billion in revenue, with a trajectory towards 100 billion, indicating strong growth potential [12].

市场近期对泡泡玛特(09992)的情绪转趋谨慎，但该行的看法则相反，参考宝可梦(Pokemon)在2021至 2022年大幅增加卡牌产能以解决炒卖与客户体验问题，客户基数扩大推动需求持续强劲。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，泡泡玛特(09992)未来几个月将迎来多个消费旺季，包括内 地的国庆及西方的万圣节、感恩节和圣诞节。基于热门产品库存充足、新品推出及门店扩张，该行预期 销售势头将持续。针对泡泡玛特(第三季，该行预期销售将同比增长逾180%，相比次季为235%。该行维 持泡泡玛特目标价382港元(相当于预测2025年至2027年市盈率各42倍、32倍及26倍)及"增持"评级，并 列为行业首选。 报告提到，有投资者质疑泡泡玛特的持续性，认为IP收藏品并非主流爱好。然而，该行认为IP产品市场 规模已相当可观且持续成长，相信泡泡玛特差异化的商业模式与竞争优势，可以把握日益增长 的"kidult"消费需求。 报告又提到，大摩料泡泡玛特2025年至2027年每股经调整盈利预测各2.58、9.90、11.87及14.67港元，估 计公司在全球IP产品今年市场份额为5.7%(对比迪士尼43.1%、Sanrio ...

报告又提到，大摩料泡泡玛特2025年至2027年每股经调整盈利预测各2.58、9.90、11.87及14.67港元，估 计公司在全球IP产品今年市场份额为5.7%(对比迪士尼43.1%、Sanrio的8.2%)。 市场近期对泡泡玛特(09992)的情绪转趋谨慎，但该行的看法则相反，参考宝可梦(Pokemon)在2021至 2022年大幅增加卡牌产能以解决炒卖与客户体验问题，客户基数扩大推动需求持续强劲。 报告提到，有投资者质疑泡泡玛特的持续性，认为IP收藏品并非主流爱好。然而，该行认为IP产品市场 规模已相当可观且持续成长，相信泡泡玛特差异化的商业模式与竞争优势，可以把握日益增长 的"kidult"消费需求。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，泡泡玛特(09992)未来几个月将迎来多个消费旺季，包括内地的国庆及西方的 万圣节、感恩节和圣诞节。基于热门产品库存充足、新品推出及门店扩张，该行预期销售势头将持续。 针对泡泡玛特(第三季，该行预期销售将同比增长逾180%，相比次季为235%。该行维持泡泡玛特目标价 382港元(相当于预测2025年至2027年市盈率各42倍、32倍及26倍)及"增持"评级，并列为行业首选。 ...

证券研究报告|社会服务 服务消费迎政策助力，多措并举扩大内需 [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [事件Table_Summary] ： 9 月 16 日，商务部等 9 部门印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》， 提出五方面 19 条措施提振消费、扩大内需。 投资要点： ⚫ 扩大服务消费政策细化升级。2024 年，我国服务消费支出占总消费支 出的比重回升至 46%，已恢复至疫情前水平，并逐步接近 50%的关键 节点，预计将进入快速增长阶段，成为居民消费结构中的主要组成部分。 2024 年 8 月，国务院印发《关于促进服务消费高质量发展的意见》， 明确提出"培育服务消费新增长点，为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑"。 此次九部门联合推出的《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，可视作 对《意见》的进一步细化与升级，具有以下突出特点：（1）突出跨部 门协同：《措施》由九个部门联合制定，涵盖商务、教育、文旅、健康 等多个关键领域，政策协调力度显著增强，体现出政府对推动服务消费 扩容提质的坚定决心；（2）覆盖领域广泛：19 项具体措施基本涵盖文 化、旅游、体育、 ...

近年来，潮玩赛道在全球范围内呈现出蓬勃发展的态势，已然成为消费市场中一股不可忽视的新兴力量。 比如赛道龙头泡泡玛特市值在年内突破4000亿港元大关，彰显出潮玩企业强大的掘金能力。与此同时，52toys递表港 交所，名创优品拟分拆top toys上市，阅文集团战略入股"超级元气工厂"，一系列资本运作凸显出潮玩赛道在资本市场 的热度居高不下。 在这样的行业趋势下，量子之歌宣布完成了对潮玩品牌Letsvan全资控股收购，正式All In潮玩赛道。近日，量子之歌 发布了截至2025年6月30日的2025财年第四季度及全年财报。这也是其跨界潮玩赛道后发布的首份并表财报。 财报显示，量子之歌2025财年第四季度总营收为6.18亿元，净利润为1.08亿元；2025财年全年总营收为27.26亿元，净 利润为3.57亿元。 一、瞄准新消费趋势，全面转型潮玩 近年来，潮玩文化在年轻受众群体中迅速崛起，兼具艺术价值与情感共鸣的产品备受追捧。根据中商产业研究院数据 显示，2020年至2024年中国潮玩市场规模从229亿元增长至763亿元，年均复合增速为35.11%；同期全球潮玩行业规模 从203亿美元增长至418亿美元，复合增速将近 ...