Core Insights - Guangdong's consumer market shows signs of recovery, with a retail sales total of 22,932.66 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, which is an acceleration of 1.0 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1][2] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted the replacement of durable goods, leading to substantial growth in retail sales across various categories, including home appliances and furniture [8][9] - New consumption scenarios, such as indoor skiing and themed tourism, are emerging as key drivers of consumer engagement and spending [3][4] Consumer Market Recovery - The retail sales in Guangdong reached 22,932.66 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a 3.5% year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery trend [1] - Tourist numbers during the "May Day" holiday increased by 18.7%, with tourism revenue growing by 20.3% [1][5] - The Dragon Boat Festival saw a significant rise in both day and overnight visitors, with increases of 46.55% and 50.71% respectively, and tourism revenue soaring by 58.18% [1] Supply and Demand Interaction - The "old-for-new" policy has been pivotal in driving consumer demand, with retail sales of home appliances and related categories seeing growth rates of 44.9% and 38.5% respectively [8] - New products and services are being introduced to meet consumer needs, creating a positive interaction between consumption and industry [2][9] - The rise of new consumption scenarios is attributed to increased disposable income and technological advancements that support innovative consumer experiences [5][9] New Consumption Scenarios - Indoor skiing has become a popular summer activity in Guangzhou, with user numbers increasing by over 8% year-on-year [3] - The integration of cultural, culinary, and sporting events into tourism has led to innovative consumption experiences, such as themed river cruises [4] - The "holiday economy" and "night economy" are being fully leveraged, with significant increases in tourist numbers and revenue during holiday periods [5] Challenges and Recommendations - Despite the growth, challenges such as homogenization of cultural tourism and insufficient integration of consumption scenarios remain [6][7] - Experts suggest creating new consumption scenarios aligned with local industry strengths and consumer preferences, while also enhancing policy reforms to support innovation [7][9] - There is a need for improved regulatory measures to ensure quality and service standards in the evolving consumer landscape [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Pop Mart (09992), with the current stock price corresponding to 33/26 times adjusted P/E for 2025/2026, and a target price of 330 HKD, indicating a 35% upside potential [1] Group 1: Company Evolution - Over the past fifteen years, Pop Mart has evolved from its inception to a diversified entity and now aims for global presence, establishing an IP matrix with the largest IP, THE MONSTERS, projected to generate over 3 billion CNY in revenue by 2024, alongside four IPs generating over 1 billion CNY and thirteen IPs generating over 100 million CNY [2] - The revenue contribution from different product categories has shifted, with figurines now accounting for 53%, plush toys at 22%, and MEGA and derivative products contributing 13% and 12% respectively [2] - Overseas revenue has surpassed 5 billion CNY, with Southeast Asia contributing 47%, East Asia 27%, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan 14%, and North America and Europe 11% [2] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive operational system, focusing on IP discovery through systematic mechanisms like exhibitions and internal incubation, enhancing the success rate [3] - Product-driven IP operation helps extend categories and styles, with recent new product launches showing increased speed and higher success rates, validating the platform advantage [3] - A direct sales system strengthens control over inventory and pricing, allowing the company to respond to terminal demand and inform product development [3] Group 3: Future Prospects - The overseas market presents significant growth opportunities, with North America entering a rapid growth phase, Europe preparing for expansion, and Southeast Asia expected to maintain strong performance [4] - Compared to world-class IPs like Hello Kitty, LABUBU has substantial room for growth and aims to become a global super IP, supported by a platform-based IP operation system [4] - Diverse business lines, including figurines and plush toys, are still in the growth phase, with potential for expansion into building blocks, accessories, theme parks, and content ecosystems [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating, highlighting the favorable momentum in new consumption sectors, particularly in beauty care, gold, trendy toys, and freshly brewed tea drinks [4]. Core Insights - The new consumption landscape reflects the evolving consumer preferences of the younger generation, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for capturing growth opportunities in new consumption companies [80]. Beauty Care Sector - The high-end beauty segment is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR for high-end skincare and makeup at 9.6% and 10.8% respectively from 2023 to 2028, compared to 8.2% and 6.7% for mass-market products [5][9]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with the national beauty market share reaching 50.4% in 2023, surpassing foreign brands [15][18]. Gold Jewelry Sector - The gold jewelry market in China is projected to grow from 820 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,140 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.8% [19]. - The ancient gold segment shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028, despite a slowdown in growth rates [24][25]. Trendy Toys Sector - The trendy toy market in China reached 626 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 31.24% from 2019 to 2023, indicating rapid growth [40]. - The market concentration is increasing, with the top five companies' market share rising from 22.8% in 2019 to 26.4% in 2021 [46]. Freshly Brewed Tea Drinks Sector - The freshly brewed tea drink market in China was valued at 517.5 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market, with expectations to reach 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028 [67]. - The market for freshly brewed tea drinks is anticipated to maintain its position as the largest segment within the freshly brewed beverage category, with a projected CAGR of 17.3% from 2023 to 2028 [71][75].

Group 1 - Shanghai police dismantled a criminal gang selling counterfeit Labubu toys, with a case amount exceeding 12 million yuan [1] - ByteDance donated 10 million yuan to support disaster relief efforts in severely affected areas, focusing on emergency supplies for children and the elderly [2] - China's import and export trade with Central and Eastern European countries reached a record high of 522.88 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [4] Group 2 - Hunan's import and export to the EU grew by nearly 30% in June, with Germany being the largest trading partner, showing a growth of 35.1% [6] - Shanghai's first aviation pre-clearance cargo station started trial operations, improving customs efficiency by approximately 30% and reducing logistics costs by 15% [7] - Apple announced the closure of its first direct store in China, located in Dalian, which will cease operations on August 9, 2025 [8] Group 3 - Zhongshi Technology stated that its thermal management solutions are versatile and applicable in the robotics field [9] - Microsoft introduced the Copilot mode in its Edge browser, enhancing user experience with AI features that predict user actions [10] - Huatai Securities expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate during the July meeting, with future rate decisions dependent on economic data from July to August [11]

Group 1 - The event "Intellectual Property Customs Protection for National Trends Going Global" was co-hosted by Pop Mart and Beijing Customs, highlighting the importance of IP protection for brands [1] - In the first half of this year, Beijing Customs seized 53 batches of suspected infringing goods, totaling 175,000 items, with 13 batches and over 30,000 items specifically related to Pop Mart [1] - Pop Mart's Vice President Chen Xiaoyun emphasized the importance of purchasing through official channels to avoid counterfeit products and expressed gratitude to customs authorities for their support in protecting brand rights [1][2] Group 2 - A significant seizure occurred on May 22, where Beijing Customs confiscated 7,850 infringing LABUBU dolls and 955 items bearing the Pop Mart brand, marking the largest single seizure of LABUBU products this year [1] - Subsequent seizures included 324 infringing LABUBU dolls, 18,200 LABUBU stickers, 53 LABUBU phone cases, and 843 packaging boxes [1]

Industry Environment - Chinese companies are accelerating their overseas expansion towards emerging markets and "Belt and Road" countries, despite facing increased scrutiny and trade barriers from Western nations [1][4] - The micro-drama industry has seen rapid international growth, reaching a user base of 576 million across over 200 countries, with successful cultural exports [1][3] - The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors are experiencing divergent paths due to recent U.S. policy changes, with energy storage benefiting from extended tax credits [4] Cross-Border E-commerce Trends - By 2025, cross-border e-commerce is expected to enter a "refinement" phase, with total import and export volume reaching 2.71 trillion yuan, and independent sites becoming a core vehicle for brand expansion [5] - Chinese beauty brands are leveraging cross-border e-commerce to meet rising global demand for DIY beauty products, focusing on localization and compliance [10][11] Chinese Brands Going Global - The next decade is seen as a golden period for Chinese brands to expand internationally, driven by global acceptance and manufacturing upgrades [9] - Chinese toy brands are innovating product forms and utilizing social media for market expansion, despite facing challenges in Southeast Asia and Japan [6][7] Automotive Industry Expansion - Chinese automotive companies are adopting a "deep cultivation" strategy in overseas markets, focusing on local production and smart driving technologies [8] - BYD plans to launch customized electric light vehicles in Japan by 2026, aiming to increase brand recognition in a competitive market [20] Food and Beverage Sector - Yuanqi Forest is successfully entering global markets with its health-oriented products, adapting to local tastes and compliance requirements [21][22] - Tea brand Chayan Yuesheng is entering the U.S. market through e-commerce, focusing on snacks and tea-related products rather than traditional tea [19]

Core Insights - The surge in overseas sales of LABUBU has spotlighted Dongguan's Shipaizhen, attracting both domestic and international businesses to the area [1] - Shipaizhen boasts a top-tier toy manufacturing industry chain in China, which supports the growth of brands like Pop Mart [1] - The rise of "trendy toys" is reshaping Dongguan's toy industry, with businesses pursuing opportunities in this sector [1] Industry Overview - Shipaizhen is recognized as the "Trendy Toy Capital of China," with over 400 toy and trendy toy production enterprises [11] - The total output value of the trendy toy industry cluster in Shipaizhen is projected to reach 13.218 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [11] - The town accounts for approximately 30% of Dongguan's trendy toy industry output value, making it the largest in the city [11] Company Developments - Dongguan Yanchuang Cultural Development Co., Ltd. was established in 2024 and has developed its own trendy toy brand, EMMA, which has gained popularity [2][3] - The company transitioned from producing complex figurines to focusing on trendy toys due to market demand and operational challenges with previous partners [3] - Dapiaoqiang Toy Co., Ltd. has capitalized on the popularity of plush toys, achieving significant sales growth due to the demand for alternatives to high-priced limited-edition products from LABUBU [4][5] Market Dynamics - The trend of live-streaming sales has significantly influenced the growth of companies like Dapiaoqiang, which has amassed a large following and expanded its product offerings [5][6] - The competitive landscape is shifting as traditional toy manufacturers face pressure to adapt to the higher profit margins associated with trendy toys [9][10] - The entry of non-industry players into the trendy toy market has led to increased competition, with many struggling to sell their products [10] Technological and Operational Advancements - Companies like Wenbo Craft have upgraded their production capabilities by introducing advanced machinery and establishing a professional product laboratory [7][8] - The local industry benefits from a well-established supply chain, allowing for quick assembly and production of trendy toys [6] Consumer Behavior - Trendy toys differ from traditional toys in that they often rely on aesthetic appeal rather than established character narratives, leading to a stronger emotional connection with consumers [10] - The lower production costs associated with plush and rubber toys have made them more accessible for manufacturers, although this has also intensified competition [10]

潮玩公司只能不断推陈出新，产品形象要跟着风口变化，一旦某个产品销售亮眼，从业者就会蜂拥而 至，这个行业始终处于激烈竞争状态。 一个IP爆了，但很快就销声匿迹，这种情况在潮玩行业很普遍。北京倬立管理咨询公司创始合伙人文永 生认为，潮玩行业推出爆品的持续性很差。潮玩公司主要通过参加专业展会推广，有的还会和黄牛联 合，用排队等方式炒热自家品牌，但很多在收割一次后就不再有热度了。 在东莞市石排镇的采访中，潮玩公司的设计能力给记者留下深刻印象——一排排的玩偶仿佛会说话，不 断激发着参观者的情感共鸣："请将我带走"。 但即便如此好看的形象，也需要不断变换。在东莞市石排镇的采访中，一位从业人员介绍，即使是很知 名的IP，大多数也只能火半年，一旦滞销基本就要停产，很难再火爆起来。 泡泡玛特善于延长产品生命周期，似乎打破了这一行业规律。有业内人士称，这是因为泡泡玛特擅长运 作，能让同一个产品每年火爆一次。背后的原因众多，如泡泡玛特颇具眼光，很早就买下了顶尖设计师 的IP，较早布局出海，并且聘请韩国籍高管文德一操刀等等，此外，各种出圈的话题也是IP能长红的重 要因素。 不过，即便是泡泡玛特，也有不少产品摆放在角落静待春天，畅销品 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai police have dismantled a criminal gang selling counterfeit toys, seizing over 5,000 fake trendy toys with a sales amount exceeding 120 million yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Criminal Activities and Law Enforcement - The gang was reported by a well-known trendy toy company after consumers purchased counterfeit products online [2]. - The police investigation revealed that the gang, led by a suspect named Wang, used everyday sales activities as a cover for the production and sale of counterfeit trendy toys [2][3]. - On July 4, police arrested eight suspects and discovered a large quantity of counterfeit toys in their warehouse [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Trends - The popularity of trendy toys, particularly Labubu, has surged, with a notable auction of an original Labubu fetching 1.08 million yuan in June [3]. - In the first four months of this year, China's exports of dolls and animal toys exceeded 10 billion yuan, marking a 9.6% increase [4]. - Customs authorities reported seizing 11,000 batches and 38.675 million pieces of suspected infringing goods, including counterfeit Labubu toys [4]. Group 3: Industry Response and Consumer Guidance - Companies are encouraged to enhance their intellectual property protection awareness and dispute prevention capabilities as they expand internationally [5]. - Bubble Mart has increased its plush toy production capacity significantly, aiming to meet the growing demand for authentic products [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the WAIC exhibition on AI and consumer opportunities, particularly in the tourism and education sectors [2][4] - The construction of the Yajiang Hydropower Station is expected to significantly boost tourism in Tibet, benefiting leading companies in the region [3][25] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start operations on December 18, 2025, which will enhance the user base for duty-free shopping and improve performance in the sector [3][15][17] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The Yajiang Hydropower Station is expected to increase tourist traffic in Tibet, particularly in the Linzhi and Ali regions, which host several national scenic spots [3][22][25] - The Hainan Free Trade Port's upcoming closure will allow visa-free entry for citizens from 85 countries, significantly increasing the user base for duty-free shopping [15][17] 2. Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics industry is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on refined operations and market share optimization among leading institutions [26] - New product releases from upstream manufacturers are anticipated to enhance market dynamics, with companies like JINBO and Sihuan Pharmaceutical being highlighted for their innovative offerings [26][29] 3. Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty and personal care sector is undergoing a transformation due to the "traffic tax" policy, which is expected to increase market concentration among leading brands [37][39] - The demand for mosquito repellent products is rising due to the spread of the Chikungunya virus, benefiting companies like Runben [38][39] 4. Trendy Toys - Recent policies focusing on consumer stimulation and industry regulation are expected to support the performance of compliant leading companies in the trendy toy sector [40] 5. Education - The report emphasizes the progress in AI+Education, with several companies launching AI education products that are expected to see significant revenue growth [4][50] - Notable companies in this space include DouShen Education and ShengTong Education, which are introducing innovative AI-driven educational platforms [44][50]