Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, with year-on-year growth remaining flat [1][3] - The year-on-year CPI was primarily influenced by lower food prices, which decreased by 1.6%, contributing approximately 0.29 percentage points to the CPI decline [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was less than the previous month, marking the first narrowing of the decline since March [5] - Seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment contributed to price decreases in several industries, including a 1.4% drop in non-metallic mineral products [5][6] - The prices in coal mining and washing, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing saw reduced declines compared to the previous month, indicating improved market competition [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that prices are expected to gradually rise in the second half of the year, supported by stable economic performance and effective domestic demand expansion policies [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [2] - In July, the CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices [4] - The decrease in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, significantly impacted the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices down 7.6% year-on-year and fruit prices up 2.8% [1][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was less than the previous month, marking the first narrowing of the month-on-month decline since March [6] - Seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment contributed to price decreases in several industries, including non-metallic mineral products and coal mining [6][7] - The competitive market environment in industries such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic manufacturing has led to a reduction in price declines compared to the previous month [7] Group 3: Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics anticipates a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year, supported by stable economic performance, effective demand expansion policies, and reduced low-price competition among enterprises [7]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, with a year-on-year change remaining flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a continuous expansion in growth for three consecutive months [2][3] - Service prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.6%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.26 percentage points [2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, marking the first narrowing of the month-on-month decline since March [4][5] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, indicating some improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [5] - Seasonal factors and uncertainties in international trade affected prices in several sectors, with notable decreases in construction materials and energy-related prices [4][5]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline, driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with significant contributions from gold and platinum jewelry prices [1][3] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year, impacting the overall CPI [2] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in certain sectors [2][3] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with some industries experiencing price recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships and ongoing macroeconomic policies [3][4] - Specific industries such as traditional manufacturing and emerging sectors showed price increases, with notable rises in the prices of caustic soda and aircraft manufacturing [3][4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, with a year-on-year change remaining flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, and has expanded for three consecutive months [1][2] - Service prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.6%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel [2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the drop for the first time since March [1][4] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic policies and improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [1][5] - Seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties have influenced price changes in various sectors, with notable decreases in construction materials and energy-related prices [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic "anti - involution" policies have entered the implementation stage. Multiple industries and departments have taken actions, and there may be more forceful policies in the future [3]. - China's economy in the first half of the year showed growth, with consumption supporting the growth. Overseas, the US economic situation has inflation, employment, and interest - rate - related changes [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first half of 2025, GDP was 66.00 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and Q2 increased by 5.2% [17]. - **Industrial Added Value**: From January to June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.4% year - on - year. In June, the added value of the mining industry increased by 6.1%, manufacturing by 7.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 1.8% [18]. - **Real Estate Data**: In the first half of the year, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, relevant real - estate data such as sales area and new - construction area had different trends [17][18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In the first half of the year, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, with private fixed - asset investment decreasing by 0.6%. In June, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% month - on - month [17][18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24,545.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [18]. - **Demand**: The purchasing manager index (PMI) in June showed an upward trend, indicating improved market demand [8]. - **Import and Export Data**: Specific data on export and import amounts in June are presented in the report, with different trends in monthly and annual comparisons [34]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable, and the employment situation in the US also had corresponding changes [6][36]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In June, the single - month new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 90.08 billion yuan. The stock of social financing scale reached 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [37]. - **Credit Data**: In June, financial institutions' new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11 billion yuan. Loans were divided into different sectors such as enterprises and residents [37]. - **Money Supply**: M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. M1 balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed [37]. 3.3 Price - Related - **CPI**: In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, ending four consecutive months of decline. The core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][47]. - **PPI**: In June, China's PPI's year - on - year decline expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% [5][47]. 3.4 Overseas Economy - **US Economy**: In June, the US CPI and core CPI increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the employment market remained strong. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July was almost zero, and the probability in September was about 75% [4][6][56]. - **Eurozone Economy**: Relevant data such as HICP, retail sales index, and PMI in the Eurozone are presented in the report [15][16]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rates**: In July, the RMB exchange rate showed a two - way fluctuation pattern. Affected by the Fed's suspension of interest - rate hikes, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate fluctuated within a certain range [67]. - **Interest Rates**: Data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and bond yields are presented in the report, showing different trends [68][73][76].

Economic Overview - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from negative to positive growth, with food prices showing a reduced decline and non-food prices slightly rising [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with a widening decline, indicating that living material prices performed better than production material prices [1] - The average CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, while the average PPI was -2.9%, reflecting a low overall price level in the domestic market [1] External Factors - International commodity prices have decreased, creating downward pressure on domestic prices, particularly affecting industries related to oil and gas, with oil and gas extraction prices down by 12.6% year-on-year and fuel prices down by 10.4% [1] - The rise of anti-globalization sentiments and "reciprocal tariffs" from the U.S. has led to increased trade barriers, impacting China's export industries and potentially leading to further price declines in related sectors [2] Internal Factors - The acceleration of energy structure transformation and the increase in green energy have contributed to lower energy prices, with coal mining and washing prices dropping by 21.8% year-on-year due to reduced demand for thermal power [2] - Intense market competition in certain industries, particularly in manufacturing, has led to price suppression, with many companies engaging in price wars due to product homogeneity [3] Structural Price Changes - Policies aimed at reducing "involution competition" have helped alleviate overcapacity in certain sectors, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as automotive manufacturing and lithium battery production [3] - Consumption-boosting policies have positively impacted certain consumer goods sectors, resulting in price increases for items like arts and crafts, sports goods, and smart consumer products [4] - High-tech industries related to smart manufacturing and digital economy are experiencing rapid growth, with product prices showing a year-on-year increase, indicating a promising future for economic transformation [5]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, increasing by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in various industrial sectors [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in PPI is attributed to seasonal price declines in raw materials, increased green energy production leading to lower energy prices, and downward pressure on prices in export-oriented industries due to a slowing global trade environment [4][5] - The cumulative CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, indicating weak domestic price levels and insufficient consumer demand, which provides ample policy space for further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus [3][5] - The decline in industrial prices is exacerbated by overcapacity in several sectors, prompting discussions on capacity reduction as part of a new round of supply-side reforms [5]

Group 1 - In June, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with some industries showing signs of price stabilization and recovery [1] - The main reason for the month-on-month decline in PPI was the seasonal decrease in prices of certain raw material manufacturing industries, influenced by high temperatures and increased rainfall affecting construction progress in real estate and infrastructure projects [1] - The increase in green energy production contributed to a decrease in energy prices, with the electricity and heat production and supply industry seeing a month-on-month price drop of 0.9% [1] Group 2 - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% in June, influenced by both month-on-month declines and changes in comparison bases [1] - The construction of a unified national market has led to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines in certain industries, with prices for gasoline and diesel vehicle manufacturing and new energy vehicle manufacturing increasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have led to a year-on-year increase in prices of daily necessities, with general daily goods and clothing prices rising by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively in June [2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline that lasted for four consecutive months [3][9] - The rise in CPI was primarily influenced by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [3][4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months [3][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month [6][7] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points, influenced by seasonal price decreases in raw material manufacturing and pressures in export-oriented industries [6][7] - Some industries showed signs of price stabilization and recovery, particularly in sectors benefiting from domestic market improvements and consumption policies [7][6] Group 3: Price Changes by Category - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with notable declines in pork prices by 8.5% and egg prices by 7.7% [9][17] - Non-food prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with service prices rising by 0.5% [9][10] - Among various categories, prices for durable goods and entertainment-related items showed increases, reflecting ongoing consumer demand [7][12]