智通财经APP获悉，万联证券发布研报称，展望后市，随着下游龙头品牌库存水平的下降，2026年核心 客户订单有望回暖，纺织制造龙头公司有望凭借规模和成本优势继续抢占市场份额，建议关注订单需求 回暖、新产能释放、高股息的纺织制造龙头企业。服装家纺方面，受益于下游需求回暖，品牌力和产品 力较强的服装家纺企业业绩有望持续修复。此外，短期金价高位抑制黄金珠宝首饰终端需求;中长期 看，黄金饰品工艺提升将进一步推动黄金首饰在多场景渗透率的提升，建议关注品牌势能强、渠道布局 广泛、股息率高的黄金珠宝龙头企业。 万联证券主要观点如下： 纺服行业盈利状况边际改善，2025年预盈率60% 截至2026年2月13日，纺织服饰行业共计107家A股公司，已有55家发布业绩预告，行业披露率为51%， 在消费八大行业中位列第3。在所有已发布业绩预告的公司中，2025年纺织服饰行业预计盈利的公司数 量为33家，行业预盈率60%，在消费八大行业中排行第3。分具体业绩预告类型来看，2025年纺织服饰 行业亏损上市公司占比为40%，同比下降19个pct，其中，续亏的上市公司占比由2024年的30%小幅上升 至33%，但首次亏损的公司占比由28%大幅 ...

节前科创债供给缩量。本周（2026.2.9-2026.2.13，下同）科创债新增供给达 292.8 亿元，因假期因素主动减量，规 模较前一周明显收缩。发行结构以银行间 1 年内品种为主，亦有宁德时代等优质龙头 5 年期品种发行。新债认购方面， 科创债品种较普通信用债认购相对清淡，市场优先抢配高等级短久期品种，ETF 成分券标的更受机构青睐。 存量科创债评级呈现高度集中特征，AA+及以上隐含评级债券数量占比为 73.7%，AA 级中等资质个券占比也达到 22.1%， 反映部分中小科创主体融资需求；行业分布则以传统行业为主导，建筑装饰、公用事业、综合行业债券数量占比 38.8%， 纺织服饰、通信、非银金融行业较该行业全部信用债估值存在 16bp 以上的超额利差。 科创债品种内部比价方面，最新一周科创债指数成分券与非成分券的利差走阔至 27.1bp，银行间品种与成分券利差读 数也走阔至 8.5bp。拆分到 1-3 年，银行间品种与指数成分券存在近 20bp 的压缩空间。总的来看，节后科创债市场短 期将延续震荡格局，短久期高等级及 ETF 成分券表现占优，投资策略上可聚焦 1-3 年期 AAA 品种，较强的流动性便于 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|纺织服饰 2026 年 2 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 纺织服装行业全球观察之亚瑟士 | | | FY2025：业绩持续高增长，FY2026 展望乐观 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： [Tabl | 糜韩杰 | 分析师： 董建芳 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516020001 | SAC 执证号：S0260525060002 | | | SFC CE.no: BPH764 | | | | 021-38003650 | dongjianfang@gf.com.cn | | | mihanjie@gf.com.cn | | | | 请注意，董建芳并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 相关研究 [Table_Report ： ] 纺织服装行业:人形机器人亮相春晚带动销售热潮，看好纺服涉机器人产业链业务公司未来发展 2026-02-23 纺织服装行业:纺织服装与轻工行业数据周报 2.7-2.13 2026-0 ...

证券分析师 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2026/02/25） 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.25） 固定收益研究 成交规模微增，信用利差多数收窄——信用债周报 行业研究 美国关税政策再生变，对华关税迎边际下降——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/25） 固定收益研究 成交规模微增，信用利差多数收窄——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 9 日至 2 月 15 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-4 BP 至 0 BP。 本期信用债发行规模环比下降，企业债保持零发行，其余品种发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比减少， 企业债净融资额增加，其余品种净融资额减少，企业债、短期融资券净融资额为负，其余品种净融资额为 正 ...

Group 1 - The actual controller of the company, Li Zhaoting, has been detained by the police, and the case is under investigation [1][2] - Li Zhaoting does not hold any position in the company, and the company claims that this incident will not significantly impact its normal operations [2] - The company has faced financial difficulties, with a cumulative net profit of 491 million yuan since its listing in 2010 and only 12.2 million yuan in cash dividends distributed over the past decade [11] Group 2 - Li Zhaoting's business empire, including companies like Eastsun Group, has significantly shrunk due to various legal and financial issues, leaving only the company as a listed platform [1][10] - The company has experienced a decline in profits, with net profits of 93 million yuan in 2022, and projections of 51 million yuan and 19 million yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 44.76% and 62.86% [10] - The company reported a significant improvement in performance in 2025, with a revenue of 918 million yuan and a net profit of 52 million yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.49% and 205.46% [10][11] Group 3 - Li Zhaoting has been fined approximately 5.9 billion yuan for various violations, including fraudulent issuance of stocks and bonds [9][8] - The company's major shareholder's equity has been frozen due to legal disputes, which may further complicate its financial situation [12]

Core Insights - The report suggests adopting a "steady first, with growth in mind" approach to maintain gains in the second half of the spring market and to reserve space for future positioning [2][15] - The spring market of 2026 began on December 17, 2025, driven by favorable policies and early capital allocation, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive days of gains [9][13] - The convertible bond market experienced rapid growth followed by volatility, with median prices and conversion premiums reaching historical highs, indicating a significant reduction in the safety cushion of bonds [9][10] Market Trends - Historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicates that the market typically experiences a "rise then fall" pattern from the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress (NPC) [13][14] - The report highlights that during the period from the Spring Festival to the NPC, the market is likely to see a "spring surge," with small-cap growth stocks outperforming, particularly in TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [13][14] - As the NPC approaches, the market may shift towards defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and utilities, with high valuations in convertible bonds facing potential compression due to stock adjustments [13][14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, transitioning from aggressive profit-seeking to balancing returns and risks as the market moves into the NPC and Q1 earnings preview phase [15] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting convertible bonds with solid performance and reasonable pricing, while also considering high-quality, high-priced convertible bonds with clear growth prospects [15] - The report identifies sectors such as AI computing, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and post-cycle industries like consumption and real estate as favorable for convertible bonds due to improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable policy catalysts [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Li Ning, Anta Sports, Shenzhou International, and Huayi Group, among others [5][10][31]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a steady growth in exports from Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, which continues to outperform China in this regard [2][21]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders for apparel manufacturing companies in 2026, with an expectation of improved profitability quality compared to previous periods [1][22]. - The sportswear segment is expected to show resilience and long-term growth potential, with companies like Li Ning and Anta Sports being highlighted for their strong inventory management and marketing strategies [3][28]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - Several apparel manufacturers reported their January 2026 revenue, with Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group showing year-on-year changes of -1.8%, +7.6%, and +0.6% respectively [1][13][14]. - The overall performance of apparel manufacturing shipments is expected to be flat in Q4 2025, with short-term profit margins under pressure due to order fluctuations [1][22]. Industry Export Performance - In 2025, China's apparel and accessories export value is projected to be $151.2 billion, down 5.0% year-on-year, while textile yarns and fabrics are expected to see a slight increase of 0.5% [2][21]. - Vietnam's textile exports in January 2026 reached $3.25 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, and footwear exports were $2.05 billion, up 7.8% [2][21]. Company Recommendations - Li Ning is recommended due to its anticipated brand strength during the Olympic cycle, with expected net profit growth of 5.8% in 2026 [3][28]. - Anta Sports is highlighted for its excellent operational capabilities, with a projected net profit increase of 6.4% in 2026 [3][28]. - Shenzhou International is recommended for its cost-effective valuation and expected stable growth in revenue and profit in 2026 [30][31]. Inventory and Order Trends - The industry inventory is considered healthy, with expectations for steady improvement in downstream orders [30]. - Key brands are expected to see a recovery in orders, with some brands outperforming market expectations [22][24]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that brand clients are expected to adopt a more flexible ordering rhythm due to cautious economic outlooks, which may lead to differentiated performance among brands [22][27]. - The overall competitive landscape is expected to optimize in the medium to long term, benefiting integrated and internationalized manufacturers [27].

Market Trends - After the Spring Festival, the market shows a pattern where small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks, with a higher probability of market gains over 5, 10, and 20 trading days[2] - The CSI 2000 index has a significant increase of 10.4% with a 91% probability of rising in the 20 trading days post-holiday[14] Sector Performance - Technology and cyclical sectors are expected to lead, with notable gains in computer, communication, environmental protection, non-ferrous metals, steel, and textile sectors[2] - Consumer staples like food and beverage, banking, and household appliances are expected to lag behind[2] Spring Rally Dynamics - Historical data from 2016 to present indicates that 6 out of 10 spring rallies have led to a second wave of gains after an initial pullback[3] - The second wave of gains is often more profitable and closely tied to the prevailing market themes, which currently favor technology[3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain confidence in the bull market, as the core drivers remain intact, with a suggested securities ratio of over 1.1 as a bullish signal[6] - Recommended sectors include military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware, alongside materials benefiting from PPI improvements[33] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in industrial policy[7][34][35]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The report indicates that the cyclical sector is expected to enter an expansion phase, with both cyclical and growth sectors currently in the analysts' expansion zone, resonating with the industry mainline model [3] - The report highlights that the cumulative amount of pending foreign exchange settlement funds since 2022 is approximately 1.13 trillion USD, with a weighted average exchange rate of 7.1 [2] - It is projected that the USD to RMB exchange rate will likely stabilize between 6.8 and 7.1 in 2026, with an overall upward trend but limited potential for sustained unilateral appreciation [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report lists the top-performing industries for January, March, and the past year, with notable performances in the oil and petrochemical sector (32.0% increase over the past year) and construction materials (42.7% increase) [1] - Conversely, the report identifies the worst-performing industries, including defense and military (-6.7% in January) and pharmaceuticals (-3.6% in January) [1] Group 3: Company Analysis - Huijia Times - Huijia Times is recognized for its competitive advantages, including a dense store network and deep local market insights, which contribute to significant scale effects and brand barriers in the Xinjiang region [6] - The company is actively upgrading its supermarket and shopping center formats and exploring innovative "low-altitude economy + consumption" scenarios, which are expected to open a second growth curve [6] - Revenue projections for Huijia Times from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.422 billion, 2.557 billion, and 2.782 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively [6]

Macro and Strategy Research - Long-term care insurance (referred to as "long-term care insurance") is designed to mitigate the financial risks associated with long-term disabilities, providing economic security or service payments to individuals requiring ongoing personal care and medical assistance. There are three models in practice: social insurance, commercial insurance, and care allowances. To address the medical care needs arising from an aging population, China's long-term care insurance system has been piloted in 49 cities, transitioning from a "pilot" phase to a "promotion" phase during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][4]. - Japan's long-term care insurance was implemented in 2000, mandating that individuals over 40 must enroll. Funding is shared equally between public funds (taxes) and insurance premiums. Care service costs are generally covered 90% by the insurance, with individuals responsible for 10%, and some high-income groups covering 20-30%. The application process for care services follows a detailed recognition process, ensuring that public resources are prioritized for those in greatest need. As of April 2024, approximately 6.7% of the insured population utilizes care services, indicating that the insurance primarily addresses the low-frequency, high-risk care needs of the elderly [3]. - Currently, China's long-term care insurance system is still in the "pilot" stage, with only 0.8% of beneficiaries among participants as of 2024. Under the directive to "promote long-term care insurance" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, provinces like Hainan, Yunnan, and Hebei have released implementation plans. The insured groups include employees, retirees, flexible workers, and unemployed rural residents, with payment ratios of approximately 70% for employees and around 50% for non-employed rural residents [4]. - In comparison, there are notable differences between China's long-term care insurance and Japan's system in terms of funding sources, insured groups, benefit systems, and protected populations. Japan's long-term care insurance has undergone eight rounds of reforms, emphasizing a "prevention-first" approach, which can help control costs and establish community prevention and intervention systems for mild disabilities, serving as a significant reference for China's long-term care insurance system [5]. Fund Research - The public fund market saw a total scale exceeding 280 billion yuan, with the equity market experiencing a downturn. During the week from February 2 to February 6, 2026, all major equity indices declined, with the largest drop being 5.76% in the STAR 50 index. Among 31 primary industries, 18 saw gains, with the top five performing sectors being food and beverage, beauty care, electrical equipment, comprehensive, and transportation [6][8]. - The average decline for equity funds was 2.27%, with only 18.81% achieving positive returns. Fixed-income plus funds fell by an average of 0.23%, with 40.77% showing positive returns. Pure bond funds increased by 0.08%, with a remarkable 98.70% positive return rate. The average decline for pension target funds was 0.73%, with only 3.52% achieving positive returns. QDII funds also saw an average decline of 2.54%, with 13.95% showing positive returns [8]. - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 14.899 billion yuan, with only cross-border ETFs achieving net inflows of 21.624 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 619.629 billion yuan, with an average turnover rate of 9.49% [8]. Industry Research - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival consumption, with a focus on the potential recovery of valuations in the home furnishing sector. Nine departments have jointly issued a document to create a festive consumption atmosphere during the Spring Festival [10][13]. - From February 2 to February 6, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.29 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed by 2.66 percentage points [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have launched the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring' Special Activity Plan," which will take place from February 15 to 23, aiming to stimulate consumption through innovative cross-sector collaborations and incentives to enhance consumer participation. This policy is expected to positively impact the consumption of home appliances and home decoration products during the implementation period [13].