证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 14 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3510.18 | 0.01% | 0.50 | | | 深证成指 | 10696.10 | 0.61% | 64.97 | | | 沪深 300 | 4014.81 | 0.12% | 4.78 | | | 创业板 | 2207.10 | 0.80% | 17.52 | | | 科创 50 | 994.45 | 1.48% | 14.46 | | | 北证 50 | 1420.81 | 0.90% | 12.64 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 2.02% | 银行 | -2.41% | 稀土永磁 | 5.6 ...

Market Overview - The main indices showed slight fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.8% [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industry sectors, non-bank financials, computers, and steel performed well, while textiles and apparel, oil and petrochemicals, and transportation lagged behind [1] Concept Sector Performance - Overall, the rare earth, stock trading software, and rare earth permanent magnet concepts performed relatively well, whereas the banking, circuit board, and vitamin concepts showed weaker performance [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.36% as of the morning close, with a trading volume of 783.11 million shares and a transaction amount of 934.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Real estate, banking, and oil & petrochemicals sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 1.53%, 1.42%, and 1.23% respectively [1] - The automotive, defense, and electronics sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 0.93%, 0.92%, and 0.76% respectively [2] Leading Stocks - In the real estate sector, Yuhua Development led with a gain of 9.94% [1] - In the banking sector, Minsheng Bank rose by 5.12% [1] - In the oil & petrochemicals sector, *ST Xinchao increased by 5.08% [1] - In the steel sector, Jinling Mining surged by 10.02% [1] - In the non-bank financial sector, Nanhua Futures also rose by 10.02% [1] - In the pharmaceutical sector, Qianyuan Pharmaceutical saw a significant increase of 19.98% [1] Sector Summary - The real estate sector had a transaction amount of 117.03 billion yuan, up 26.74% from the previous day [1] - The banking sector recorded a transaction amount of 266.82 billion yuan, up 36.61% [1] - The oil & petrochemicals sector had a transaction amount of 80.95 billion yuan, up 36.47% [1] - The automotive sector had a transaction amount of 389.36 billion yuan, down 16.50% [2] - The defense sector recorded a transaction amount of 316.85 billion yuan, down 23.79% [2] - The electronics sector had a transaction amount of 1,036.63 billion yuan, down 10.88% [2]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指涨0.34%，A股成交量550.19亿股，成交金额6489.82亿 元，比上一个交易日减少8.50%。个股方面，2399只个股上涨，其中涨停42只，2749只个股下跌，其中 跌停4只。从申万行业来看，房地产、银行、石油石化等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.24%、1.19%、 0.97%；国防军工、纺织服饰、汽车等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.24%、0.78%、0.78%。（数据宝） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 房地产 | 1.24 | 88.46 | 37.10 | 渝开发 | 9.94 | | 银行 | 1.19 | 153.25 | 17.78 | 民生银行 | 4.93 | | 石油石化 | 0.97 | 48.87 | 16.65 | *ST新潮 | 5.08 | | 医药生物 | 0.91 | 564.34 | 12.52 | 仟源医药 | 19.98 | | 非银金融 | 0.88 | 303.3 ...

首创证券（601136）发布研报称，在消费结构升级但经济压力仍存的背景下，消费需求分层，品牌服饰 板块建议把握两条投资主线：一是产品、业态、渠道符合"质价比"消费需求的企业。二是业务领域契 合"情绪"消费导向的企业。纺织制造板块暂时受美国关税政策压制，但长期看，替代供应链难寻，制造 龙头壁垒深厚。一方面建议重点关注估值水平较低、竞争壁垒较强、与大客户强绑定的行业龙头。另一 方面建议关注在产能释放、新业务及新品类拓展方面具备边际变化的公司。 首创证券主要观点如下： 行情回顾：纺服板块跑赢大盘，制造板块估值低于历史中枢 今年年初以来(截至6月13日收盘)纺织服饰板块上涨5.5%，跑赢沪深300指数7.3pct，在31个申万一级行 业中位列第11名。分板块看，服装家纺板块上涨0.67%;纺织制造板块受美国关税政策预期反复影响，下 跌4.75%。截至6月13日收盘，纺织服饰板块市盈率(TTM)为25.54，略高于2020年1月以来的历史平均。 其中，服装家纺板块市盈率(TTM)为26.54，略低于历史平均;纺织制造板块市盈率(TTM)为20.12，低于 历史平均。H股方面，主要运动及制造龙头市盈率水平处于历史低位。 ...

Group 1 - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total market value of northbound funds reached 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of over 2% compared to the end of Q1, with the number of shares held reaching 123.51 billion, a growth of over 3% [1] - Northbound funds showed a significant structural adjustment in industry allocation, with over 20 industries seeing an increase in holdings, accounting for more than 60% of the 31 industries tracked [3] - The social services industry has been continuously favored by northbound funds for three consecutive quarters, indicating sustained foreign interest in this sector [3] Group 2 - The retail trade industry saw the most significant increase, with a 28.69% rise in the number of shares held and a market value increase of over 45%, reaching 19.75 billion yuan [3] - The defense and military industry also received notable attention, with a 12.5% increase in holdings, and its index leading the market with over a 15% rise in Q2 [3] - In contrast, the oil and petrochemical, textile and apparel, electronics, and home appliances industries experienced a decline in holdings of over 10% [3] Group 3 - Over 1,500 individual stocks saw an increase in holdings by northbound funds, reflecting a clear value orientation [4] - The top ten stocks held by northbound funds include Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, and Midea Group, with holdings in Ningde Times exceeding 150 billion yuan and Kweichow Moutai over 100 billion yuan [4] - Notable increases in holdings were observed in Huaming Equipment, Rongchang Biology, and Huayou Cobalt, with Huaming Equipment's latest holding ratio at 17.45%, reflecting a more than 6 percentage point increase [4]

2025年5月16日，证监会资产重组新规落地 ，明确"允许未盈利硬科技资产注入上市公司"——这是继科 创板"科八条"、地方百亿并购基金后，政策层面对并购重组的又一次强力刺激。 回顾近年数据可以看出， 并购市场热度持续升温 ，企业关注度、参与度逐渐提高： " 1、并购重组市场形势 | 并购六条导向 | 行业 | 2024年平均并购金额(亿元) | 较近 10年均值增幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向新质生产力转型升级 | 国防车工 | 575.75 | 495.02 | | | 轻工制造 | 133.51 | 420.03 | | | 传 娱 | 147.46 | 179.31 | | | 计算机 | 34.23 | 42.67 | | | 医药生物 | 33.62 | 40.48 | | | 汽车 | 34.48 | 21.02 | | 加强产业整合 | 非银金融 | 374.54 | 234.08 | | | 纺织服饰 | 73.73 | 113.98 | | | 商贸零售 | 101.25 | 111.79 | | | 父通运输 | 147.46 | 61.12 | ...

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 讯 1) 上周（6/30-7/4）大消费板块表现分化。家用电器、纺织服饰、 社会服务、食品饮料、商贸零售、美容护理周涨跌幅分别为 +1.73%、+1.36%、+0.74%、+0.62%、-0.16%、-0.55%。食品饮料、 家用电器、纺织服饰、商贸零售、社会服务、美容护理各板块领 涨的个股分别是煌上煌（+11.71%）、*ST 同洲（+19.72%）、飞 亚达（+21.56%）、吉峰科技（+7.98%）、国脉科技（+11.64%）、 锦波生物（+9.23%）；领跌的个股分别是欢乐家（-7.28%）、ST 德豪（-4.44%）、华升股份（-8.34%）、新迅达（-9.13%）、西 域旅游（-6.78%）、锦盛新材（-21.72% ...

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 下半年央行降准降息仍有空间，A 股稳中向上趋势不变 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周美股、A 股领涨全球股指，其中纳指、标普 500 指数再创新高，沪指一度逼近 3500 点。行业板 块方面，煤炭、有色、建材（光伏）等周期板块在"反内卷"政策预期下表现突出，银行指数在上周五大跌后再 度回升，创历史新高。此外，美越贸易协议和中美贸易关系缓和交易下，部分消费电子、纺织服饰等板块也有表 现。外汇方面，美元指数持续走低，弱美元下全球商品价格普遍走强，国内螺纹钢、双焦价格也从底部反弹。 ·市场展望：下半年央行降准降息仍有空间，A 股稳中向上趋势不变。短期来看，全球市场定价核心在于 7 月 9 日 美国与各国贸易协定进展，此前美国总统特朗普表示不考虑延长关税豁免最后期限，但此种表态也可能是一种谈 判策略，美国对部分国家关税也有延期可能。上半年我国经济增长动能强劲，全年经济增速目标达成的压力减 轻。然而对于下半年而言，无论关税最终结果如何，出口对增长 ...

| 家用电 | 15.88 | -2.77 | 2.07 | 0.03 | -3.89 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 | | | | | | | 社会服 | 13.50 | 11.98 | 2.99 | -0.20 | -4.08 | | 务 | | | | | | | 环保 | 18.96 | 11.58 | 2.12 | -1.03 | -4.59 | | 医药生 物 | 68.04 | -1.48 | 2.49 | 0.39 | -5.73 | | 通信 | 32.51 | 17.15 | 1.87 | -0.85 | -15.10 | | 汽车 | 45.27 | -0.21 | 2.09 | -0.53 | -17.97 | | 基础化 工 | 71.27 | 1.70 | 2.66 | -1.22 | -21.74 | | 机械设 | 65.11 | -6.74 | 2.40 | -0.97 | -28.36 | | 备 | | | | | | | 国防军 | 32.96 | -12.68 | 3.05 | -0.91 | -29.30 | ...