本周各家券商策略普遍提及岁末年初的历史行情表现情况，整体看好春季躁动提前。 广发策略刘晨明团队复盘了岁末年初的指数及风格历史表现情况，可总结为： 11月：对机构最不利的一个月已经过去，11月份市场涨跌和基本面关联度最弱，主题活跃、轮动加快。 12月：过去20年，指数在12月涨跌各半，不过基本面定价的有效性较11月增强；风格方面，大盘优于小盘，红利占优，金融板块涨幅居前，港 股红利也迎来一年中日历效应最强的时段。 1月：指数在1月的上涨概率仅43%，小盘股上涨概率仅31%，主要受年报预告压制风险偏好影响。 春节前后、2月：一年当中风险偏好最高的区间，小盘股胜率超过90%，成长风格、电子/计算机/非银等行业的平均涨幅最高。 今年来看，截止11月下旬，主线板块的调整时间、调整空间都已较为充分，近期已出现不同程度的反弹、或不再下跌，12月可纳入观察区间。26年的春季 躁动大概率不会缺席，做好积极布局准备（缺席的原因不外乎政策及外部冲击、流动性冲击、盈利下行，今年上述因素展望都较为温和）。 中银策略王君团队指出，"春躁"预热行情有望提前开启。下周起，美联储12月降息预期即将落地，当前市场对于12月降息的预期比较一致，需 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797) has entered the offline community supermarket sector, marking a significant expansion in its business model, with a notable increase in stock price by 4.51% to HKD 20.4 [1] Group 1: Business Expansion - The company plans to recruit store managers for its flagship store in Beijing's Zhongguancun, offering monthly salaries between HKD 15,000 to HKD 30,000 [1] - The new store will cover approximately 400 square meters and will focus on fresh produce, snacks, daily necessities, and ready-to-eat food and beverages, catering to the community's daily meal needs [1] Group 2: Digital and Supply Chain Advantages - The adoption of digital tools has improved demand forecasting and inventory management, enhancing supply chain standardization and reducing operational difficulties [1] - Dongfang Zhenxuan leverages its experience in live-streaming e-commerce, digital infrastructure, and direct sourcing to gain a competitive edge in the community market [1] Group 3: Product Development and Performance - The company has increased its investment in self-operated products and supply chain development, with self-operated products accounting for approximately 43.8% of the total GMV in FY2025, amounting to HKD 8.7 billion [1] - Dongfang Zhenxuan has launched a total of 732 self-operated products, expanding its product range from fresh food and snacks to a more diversified portfolio [1]

东方甄选(01797)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.51%，报20.4港元，成交2.05亿港元。 据公开资料显示，东方甄选在自营产品方面取得了一定优势。过去一年，公司将更多资源投入到自营产 品的研发和供应链建设上，自营产品占总GMV比例逐年增加。2025财年，东方甄选自营产品及直播电 商业务总GMV为87亿元，其中自营产品占总GMV约43.8%。首席财务官尹强透露，东方甄选已累计推 出732款自营产品，产品类别从最初的生鲜食品及零食扩展到更多元化的产品系列。 消息面上，近日，东方甄选宣布，将以月薪1.5万至3万元招聘北京中关村旗舰店店长，标志着其正式进 军线下社区超市领域。该门店面积约400平方米，主营生鲜、零食、日用百货、现制3R食品及饮品，定 位为社区居民"一日三餐"的便捷消费场景。据了解，数字化工具的普及使需求预测和库存管理更加精 准，供应链标准化程度提高降低了运营难度。东方甄选凭借直播电商积累的爆品运营能力、数字化基础 及源头直采体系，具备切入社区市场的独特优势。其此前尝试的前置仓模式，已为线上线下（300959） 融合奠定基础。 ...

高薪招聘店长只是第一步，后续能否补齐零售基因短板、在激烈竞争中找到差异化定位，才是决定其线下布局成败的关键。 东方甄选，不平静。 自东方甄选前CEO孙东旭离职后，俞敏洪亲自接任法定代表人、经理及董事职务，公司股价在震荡中度过了一个月的适应期。 就在市场揣测这家直播电商巨头下一步动作时，其经营范围新增餐饮管理、外卖递送服务、餐饮服务业务的工商信息变更，率先释放出"探索多元可能"的 市场信号。 紧接着，《北京商报》12月3日披露的一则招聘启事引发行业聚焦：东方甄选正以1.5万至3万元月薪，为北京首家旗舰店寻觅店长，优先锁定"餐饮+零 售"复合业态管理人才。 图：东方甄选旗舰店招聘 「零售商业财经」查询发现，目前东方甄选"店长"招聘已悄然下架，但"储备店长"的招聘已更新，虽然东方甄选尚未公开回应实体店布局的具体规划，但 可以确定的是，俞敏洪念叨了一年多的"全国百家门店"构想，终于迈出了实质性的一步。 野心 从东方甄选首家旗舰店的规划细节来看，这家位于中关村核心商圈的门店面积约400平方米，涵盖生鲜、零食、日百等便利店商品，同时设置简餐和咖啡 饮品区，走"餐饮+零售"的复合业态路线。 在业态组合上，东方甄选对标的是便 ...

东方甄选的野心不止是做"线上山姆"了。 近期，东方甄选正在招聘北京首家旗舰店的店长，优先有"餐饮+零售"复合业态管理经验的人才，薪资待遇15-30k。 这家旗舰店位于北京中关村，面积在400平方米左右，除了生鲜、零食、日百等便利店商品，还涵盖简餐和咖啡饮品区。 继董宇辉、孙东旭离职后，东方甄选终于走向线下，这家首店将是俞敏洪口中未来全国百家门店的第一步试点。 过去两年，东方甄选持续在供应链和品牌心智上做重投入，自营品占比提升、付费会员体系建立，但线上流量的天花板越来越清晰。要从直播电商转向新 零售品牌，线下门店是它必须补上的一块拼图。 此前，俞敏洪表示希望依托800个新东方地面教学点探索出一个线上线下相结合的模式，和全国新东方合作开设地面服务店、会员店、旗舰店。 那么，东方甄选的品牌力和用户黏性，能否支撑起一个真正意义上的零售业态？ 一、不得不走的一步棋 东方甄选迈出线下旗舰店这一步，是渠道延伸，又不只是渠道延伸。这是东方甄选在多重压力之下的一次战略调整。 布局线下的最直接推力，是线上流量生态发生了根本性逆转。 众所周知，东方甄选从抖音起家，到现在，抖音仍然是东方甄选的基本盘。但是随着直播电商模式的常态化、东 ...

显而易见，旗舰店业务承担着东方甄选在线下寻找增量同时联动线上业务的使命。 北京商报记者丨何倩 东方甄选CEO、新东方集团董事长俞敏洪构想的东方甄选全国百家门店，将迈出第一步。 12月3日，北京商报记者独家发现，东方甄选正以1.5万—3万元薪资招聘北京首家旗舰店的店长，优先 有"餐饮+零售"复合业态管理经验的人才。据了解，这家旗舰店位于北京中关村，面积在400平方米左 右，除了生鲜、零食、日百等便利店商品，还涵盖简餐和咖啡饮品区。 两年时间内，东方甄选历经头部主播、CEO离职等多重震荡，线下或将是流量另一个增量场。近年来三 只羊、交个朋友、美腕等机构均在加码线下场景，面对完全迥异于线上的经营逻辑，直播机构的线下之 路还有很多功课要做。 3万薪资招店长 东方甄选为线下门店招兵买马。招聘网站显示，东方甄选对店长的资质有较高要求。店长需要有5年以 上零售行业的工作经历，有着管理"餐饮+零售"复合业态的经验。公司会优先考虑便利蜂、711、罗森等 连锁便利店从业经验的人士，带过15人以上的团队。 值得注意的是，据天眼查资料，近日东方甄选（北京）科技有限公司发生工商变更，经营范围新增餐饮 管理、外卖递送服务、餐饮服务业务。 ...

Core Insights - Oriental Selection is planning to open its first flagship store in Beijing, with a focus on hiring a store manager with experience in both food and retail sectors, offering a salary between 15,000 to 30,000 yuan [1][6] - The flagship store will feature a variety of products including fresh food, snacks, daily necessities, and a dining area for quick meals and coffee [1] - The company aims to leverage offline retail as a new growth avenue, especially after facing challenges in its online business due to the departure of key personnel [1][14] Recruitment and Store Management - The store manager position requires over five years of retail experience and management of teams larger than 15 people, with a preference for candidates from convenience store backgrounds [6] - Recent business registration changes indicate that Oriental Selection is expanding its operational scope to include food management and delivery services [6][7] Business Model and Strategy - The flagship store model may draw inspiration from successful convenience store operations, integrating dining and coffee areas [7] - The company is exploring a hybrid online-offline model, utilizing existing New Oriental teaching points to attract foot traffic and convert visitors into members [7][10] Market Context and Competition - The flagship store is positioned to enhance Oriental Selection's offline presence amid increasing competition from other live-streaming and retail brands [11][12] - The company faces significant competition in the offline retail space, particularly in high-traffic areas like Beijing's Zhongguancun, where it will compete with established brands [12][13] Financial Performance and Challenges - The company has experienced a decline in GMV across all sales channels, dropping from 14.3 billion yuan to 8.7 billion yuan year-over-year [14] - The departure of key figures has impacted the company's market presence, with a notable drop in followers and sales volume on major platforms [14][15] Product Diversification and App Development - Oriental Selection is diversifying its product offerings, moving beyond low-margin fresh food to include higher-margin items like smart home products and apparel [14] - The company's app has seen an increase in GMV contribution, rising from 8.4% to 15.7% of total sales, indicating a growing focus on digital sales channels [15]

Core Viewpoint - The retail industry is experiencing increased market volatility as of the end of 2025, with a focus on capturing new consumption trends and expectations for a reversal of traditional consumption challenges [1] 2025 Review - In the first nine months of 2025, the total retail sales reached 36,587.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, with retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles growing by 4.9% [2] - By category, cosmetics sales grew by 3.9%, while gold and jewelry sales surged by 11.5% due to a low base last year and rising gold prices [2] - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 2,060 billion yuan, marking a 6.4% increase, demonstrating resilience despite external impacts such as tariffs [2] - The consumption landscape shows structural highlights in sectors like pets, trendy toys, personal care, and jewelry, driven by insights into new consumer demands and product innovation [2] - The new consumption industry trends and expectations for a reversal in traditional consumption challenges are identified as the two main themes, with a positive market performance at the beginning of the year followed by a cooling trend later on [2] 2026 Outlook - New markets will be explored domestically, including customer return during offline channel adjustments and new dividends from innovative business models like instant retail, while overseas expansion remains crucial for Chinese brands [3] - New demands will focus on insights into emerging consumer preferences, emphasizing emotional and practical value in products, and exploring innovation through IP+ and AI+ [3] - A platform-based approach is necessary due to intensified competition, requiring companies to create mechanisms for continuous growth through both internal and external opportunities [3] Investment Recommendations - For beauty and personal care, focus on leading companies with room for product innovation and those with platform capabilities for iterative growth, such as Shangmei Co., Proya, and others [4] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies with differentiated designs and expansion potential are expected to benefit, including Chao Hong Ji and Chow Tai Fook [4] - For cross-border e-commerce, leading firms expanding in target markets and new categories will see sustained fundamental catalysts, such as Small Commodity City and Anker Innovations [4] - In offline retail, companies showing initial operational improvements should be monitored, including Jiajiayue and Miniso [4]

Core Insights - The offline traditional consumption market remains significant and is experiencing stronger growth compared to online consumption, indicating a robust market space even in the e-commerce era [1][2][3] Group 1: Offline Consumption Growth - In October, the offline consumption heat index in major cities increased by 17.3% year-on-year, highlighting the potential for offline markets to surpass online markets [1] - The offline consumption heat index for first-tier and second-tier cities grew by 18.9% and 14.5% respectively, while third-tier and below cities saw a remarkable increase of 31.2% [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The growth in offline consumption in lower-tier cities is attributed to rapid economic development and rising income levels, enhancing consumer spending capacity and willingness [2] - Consumers in third and fourth-tier cities prioritize the experience and interaction provided by offline shopping, which aligns with their slower-paced lifestyles [2] Group 3: Importance of Offline Markets - Offline retail stores serve as crucial platforms for brand display and image building, allowing consumers to better understand brand culture and product features [2] - The offline market plays a vital role in job creation and local economic development, emphasizing its importance alongside online platforms [2][3] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To stimulate consumption potential, it is essential to recognize the importance of offline markets and promote coordinated development between online and offline channels [3][4] - There is a need to explore the unique value and advantages of offline consumption, fostering a blended approach to drive market prosperity and economic growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance and strategic direction of MINISO, emphasizing the importance of a strong business model for long-term returns and the challenges faced in maintaining competitive pricing and profitability in the retail sector [1][12]. Financial Performance - MINISO reported Q3 2025 revenue of 5.797 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, achieving a record high for a single quarter. Gross profit rose by 28% to 2.58 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 44.7%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 31% to 441 million RMB, while adjusted net profit increased by 12% to 767 million RMB, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.2% [1]. - For Q1 2025, MINISO's revenue was 4.427 billion RMB, up 18.9%, but operating profit fell by 4.51% to 710 million RMB, and net profit dropped by 28.92% to 417 million RMB. Adjusted net profit was 587 million RMB, down 4.81%, with a net profit margin of 13.3% [3]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 4.97 billion RMB, a 23.1% increase, with a gross margin of 44.3%. Operating profit grew by 11.3% to 836 million RMB, while net profit was 489.5 million RMB, down from 591.4 million RMB in the previous year [3]. Business Segments - MINISO brand revenue was 5.22 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% increase, while TOP TOY brand revenue surged by 111.4% to 570 million RMB. The total number of stores globally reached 8,138, with 7,831 MINISO stores and 307 TOP TOY stores [1]. - The same-store GMV showed single-digit growth across the group, with MINISO in China experiencing high single-digit growth, indicating a stable base in the domestic market [1]. Business Model Analysis - The article critiques MINISO's business model, questioning whether it aligns more with unique product offerings or cost efficiency. The current strategy appears to lean towards the former, aiming for distinctive product strength rather than merely competing on price [5][12]. - The founder's past assertion of a "quality at low price" model is challenged, as the current gross margin exceeds 50%, suggesting that the pricing strategy may not be as competitive as claimed [6][8]. - The company is seen as focusing on brand and IP management rather than traditional retail efficiency, which may limit its ability to compete on price against discount retailers [12][9]. Competitive Landscape - The article highlights the competitive pressures faced by MINISO, particularly from established players in the market. The potential for competitors to offer lower prices poses a significant risk to MINISO's market position [12][15]. - The discussion includes comparisons with other brands, such as Bubble Mart, which operates on a unique product model with higher gross margins, suggesting that MINISO's strategy may not be sustainable in the long term [14][15].