1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of PX, PTA, and MEG all declined. PX load remained high, PTA short - term maintenance increased, and MEG's overseas device load was at a high level. The polyester and terminal sectors are about to end the off - season, with downstream demand expected to gradually recover. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, while PTA is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage, and MEG's port inventory is expected to accumulate [11][12][13]. - In terms of valuation, PX's current valuation is at a neutral level, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil. PTA's low inventory level and the recovery of downstream prosperity are expected to result in less upward feedback pressure, and PXN has upward support. MEG's valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Price Performance**: The 09 contract dropped 250 yuan to 6812 yuan last week. The spot price of CFR China decreased by 28 dollars to 846 dollars. The spot - converted basis increased by 27 yuan to 160 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 90 yuan to 22 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: China's load was 81.1%, a 1.2% week - on - week increase; Asia's load was 73.4%, a 0.5% increase. Subsequent domestic maintenance is still low, and the load remains high [11]. - **Demand**: PTA load was 72.6%, a 7.1% week - on - week decrease. In the short term, PTA maintenance increased, and the overall load will decline [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory at the end of June was 413.8 tons, a 21 - ton decrease. According to the balance sheet, inventory will continue to decline from July to August [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: As of July 31, PXN was 247 dollars, a 32 - dollar year - on - year decrease; the naphtha crack spread increased by 11 dollars to 85 dollars. The current valuation is at a neutral level [11]. - **Summary**: PXN declined last week. Although the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is small, the current valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [11]. PTA - **Price Performance**: The 09 contract dropped 192 yuan to 4744 yuan last week. The spot price in East China decreased by 145 yuan to 4750 yuan. The spot basis decreased by 5 yuan to - 13 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 56 yuan to - 38 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: PTA load was 72.6%, a 7.1% week - on - week decrease. Although maintenance will increase in August, new device production will result in continuous inventory accumulation [12]. - **Demand**: Last week, polyester load was 88.1%, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease. The terminal off - season is about to end, and the pressure to reduce production has decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 220.5 tons, a 1.6 - ton increase [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee increased by 1 yuan to 176 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased by 28 yuan to 275 yuan/ton [12]. - **Summary**: PTA's absolute price followed PX down. The processing fee has limited room to operate, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [12]. MEG - **Price Performance**: The 09 contract dropped 140 yuan to 4405 yuan last week. The spot price in East China decreased by 102 yuan to 4480 yuan. The basis increased by 23 yuan to 73 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 36 yuan to - 34 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: Last week, EG load was 68.6%, a 0.7% week - on - week decrease. Subsequent maintenance devices will gradually decrease, and the load will gradually increase [13]. - **Demand**: Similar to PTA, polyester load decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the terminal off - season is about to end [13]. - **Inventory**: As of July 28, port inventory was 52.1 tons, a 1.2 - ton decrease; downstream factory inventory days were 13.5 days, a 0.5 - day increase. Short - term port inventory is expected to accumulate [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Last week, the naphtha - based profit decreased by 263 yuan to - 568 yuan/ton, and the overall valuation is moderately high [13]. - **Summary**: The fundamentals of the MEG industry are expected to weaken, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **PX**: The basis rebounded, the spread was weak, the position increased, and the trading volume decreased [31][34]. - **PTA**: The basis continued to be weak, the spread fluctuated weakly, and the position and trading volume data are provided in the report [43]. - **MEG**: The position and trading volume were at a low level, and overseas commodity price data for PX, MEG, and PTA are provided [61][70]. 3.3 PX Fundamentals - **Supply**: Device load rebounded, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in 2025 [77][75]. - **Import**: Imports remained stable in June [81]. - **Inventory**: Inventory continued to decline in June [90]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN declined, the short - process spread was strong, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [94]. - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil**: Gasoline performance was weak, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread, blending relative value, South Korea's aromatic hydrocarbon inventory, and South Korea - US aromatic hydrocarbon trade data are provided [101][111][113]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity was put into operation, load decreased, and exports in June were continuously low [135][139][141]. - **Inventory**: Inventory rebounded from a low level [143]. - **Profit and Valuation**: The processing fee was weak [146]. 3.5 MEG Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity was put into operation, the total load was at a five - year high, and import data are provided [150][154][156]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreased slightly this week [158]. - **Cost**: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene prices remained stable [170]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based MEG weakened [173]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New long - filament devices were put into operation, the basis of staple fiber and bottle chips fluctuated, the start - up rate decreased, export data in June increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, long - filament inventory pressure was neutral, staple fiber inventory increased, bottle chip absolute inventory was high, and the profit of bottle chips and staple fiber was poor [188][191][194]. - **Terminal**: The start - up rate rebounded, textile enterprise orders increased and inventory decreased, raw material inventory preparation decreased, the growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand decreased, exports were weak, and US clothing inventory was below the pre - pandemic high with marginal increase [215][222][226].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of commodities is driven by macro - sentiment. PTA may experience a short - term decline from high levels under the expectation of a fall in commodity sentiment due to new device production and poor terminal performance. MEG is expected to mainly follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with its cost support limited and supply pressure postponed [6]. - The cost side shows that crude oil continues to fluctuate widely, and PX is expected to run warmly in the short term. The supply side of PTA remains stable, while the total supply of MEG is expected to increase. The demand side of polyester is expected to change little, and the terminal demand is weakly declining [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Market Review**: OPEC+ is still in the process of increasing production, and geopolitical tensions are easing, leading to a decline in international crude oil. PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment despite limited support from cost and a weakening naphtha [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Tianjin Petrochemical's maintenance led to a narrow decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization was 82.81%, down 0.35% from last week, and the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 72.87%, down 0.28% [21]. - **Price Spread**: The PX - naphtha price spread rebounded slightly as naphtha prices weakened and commodity sentiment was good in China. As of July 25, the PX - naphtha price spread was 292.5 dollars/ton, up 30.55 dollars/ton from July 18 [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro factors, PTA had a weak rebound. The supply was stable, demand shrank slightly, and the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory. As of July 25, the PTA spot price was 4900 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 - 5 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There were no significant changes in PTA devices this week, and the capacity utilization fluctuated narrowly at 80.76%, remaining flat compared to the previous period. In July, Helen Petrochemical plans to start production, and Hengli has a maintenance plan, so the PTA capacity utilization is expected to fluctuate slightly [30]. - **Processing Fee**: The PTA processing fee was significantly repaired. Although the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory and downstream procurement enthusiasm was blocked, there was an expectation of increased maintenance at low processing fees, so the processing fee is expected to continue to be repaired at a low level next week [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In July, with the commissioning of new PTA devices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, the supply - demand of PTA turned to inventory accumulation [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro and cost factors, ethylene glycol rebounded significantly. After breaking through and rising, it entered a high - level volatile trend. As of July 25, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4579 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4580 yuan/ton [40]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Some devices reduced their loads, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization decreased slightly. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 59.20%, up 0.71% compared to the previous period. In July, domestic production is expected to increase, and overall supply will increase slightly [44]. - **Port Inventory**: Due to weak terminal demand, the ethylene glycol port inventory fluctuated at a low level. As of July 24, the total ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was 47.5 tons, up 1.57 tons from July 21 [46]. - **Processing Profit**: Ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level, and processing profits increased across the board. As of July 25, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 81.9 dollars/ton, up 20.69 dollars/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 75.2 yuan/ton, up 35.73 yuan/ton from last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Side of the Industry Chain Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Due to large - scale production cuts, the polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly to 86.4%, down 0.29% from the previous period. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [54]. - **Production Volume**: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and high cash - flow pressure, the polyester monthly output is expected to decline significantly [56]. - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: The capacity utilization of polyester products was differentiated. The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament was 92.09%, down 0.85% from the previous period; the average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber was 84.78%, down 1.64% from the previous period; and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was 76.58%, up 0.22% from last week [61]. - **Inventory**: Due to downstream centralized replenishment, the inventory of polyester products decreased significantly [62]. - **Cash - Flow**: With the significant increase in raw material prices, the cash - flow of polyester products was compressed, and the cash - flow loss expanded [67]. - **Weaving Market**: The off - season atmosphere in the weaving market deepened, and the start - up rate continued to decline. As of July 24, the comprehensive start - up rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.59%, down 0.24% from the previous period, and the average terminal weaving order days were 6.94 days, a decrease of 0.33 days from last week [70]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Crude oil declined, and PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment [72]. - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization remained flat, and the MEG capacity utilization increased slightly [72]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly, and the weaving industry start - up rate was low with weak terminal demand [72]. - **Inventory**: PTA inventory shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area fluctuated [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical disturbances, expectations of peak demand season, and crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint, causing international oil prices to fluctuate at high levels. If geopolitical risks ease later, the downward pressure on oil prices will increase. The maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical's PX plant has led to a contraction in the weekly domestic supply, while the operating rate of downstream PTA has remained stable. Boosted by the overall strong atmosphere in the commodity market, the PX processing fee has recovered on a month - on - month basis. However, on Friday, the market sentiment significantly cooled down, and the PX price weakened sharply, but the supply - demand fundamentals still provide some support at the lower end [8]. - The strengthening of cost support is the main driver for the rise in PTA prices this week. From the perspective of supply - demand, there have been limited changes in the domestic supply side, but the downstream demand has remained weak. The supply - demand has maintained a weak pattern, and inventories have continued to accumulate. The short - term weak trend is expected to continue. Recently, the PTA spot processing fee has been compressed to a low level of around 200 yuan/ton. Many large - scale plants are planning maintenance in August, and it is expected that the supply will decline. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the supply - demand side, and the downward support is expected to strengthen, but close attention still needs to be paid to the trends on the cost side [8]. - Driven by the cost side this week, ethylene glycol has shown a strong performance. The increase in the ethylene glycol price has led to a slight recovery in the oil - based production profit, but the significant increase in coal prices has resulted in little change in the coal - based production profit. Ethylene glycol currently maintains a tight balance. The port inventory has slightly decreased compared to last week but has rebounded compared to the beginning of the week, with a limited inventory accumulation amplitude. Two Saudi plants have recently restarted, and it is expected that the subsequent arrival volume will gradually increase. Currently, the fundamental contradictions of ethylene glycol itself are not prominent, and the driving force mainly comes from the cost side. On Friday night, as the market sentiment cooled down and the prices of crude oil and coal weakened sharply, ethylene glycol also followed the cost decline [8]. - Although the cost - side prices have continued to rise, the processing fees of polyester downstream products have weakened on a month - on - month basis, highlighting the insufficient demand - side carrying capacity and weak performance. Overall, the supply - demand contradictions of short - fiber itself are not prominent. The improvement in the commodity atmosphere has stimulated short - term replenishment by downstream customers, and the inventory has decreased. Its price mainly fluctuates following the raw materials. The price of bottle - grade polyester chips has been oscillating strongly supported by the cost. Its operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The short - term trend also mainly follows the upstream costs [8]. - The weak situation of the polyester industry itself remains unchanged. The polyester operating rate has continuously declined, and the weaving operating rate and textile orders have only maintained a low - level operation. The fundamental support is weak, and the expectations are also weak. This week, driven by the overall commodity sentiment, the prices of polyester industry chain products have shown a strong performance. However, on Friday night, the market sentiment declined. In terms of operation, attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities that may arise when the fundamental driving force and price trend return to synchronization [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes of Polyester Industry Chain Products - From July 18th to July 25th, NYMEX crude oil futures decreased from $66.03/barrel to $65.07/barrel, a decrease of $0.96/barrel or 1.5%; ICE Brent crude oil futures decreased from $69.23/barrel to $67.6/barrel, a decrease of $1.63/barrel or 2.4%; domestic crude oil futures decreased from 532 yuan/barrel to 512.9 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 19.1 yuan/barrel or 3.6%. The price of CFR naphtha in Japan decreased slightly from $576.38/ton to $576.13/ton, a decrease of $0.25/ton or 0.0%. The price of CFR PX in China increased from 838.33 yuan/ton to 855.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.34 yuan/ton or 2.1%. The spot price of PTA in East China increased from 4782 yuan/ton to 4900 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China increased from 4429 yuan/ton to 4579 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 3.4%. The spot price of polyester chips in East China increased from 5825 yuan/ton to 5925 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.7%. The spot price of polyester staple fiber in East China increased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6615 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton or 0.7%. The spot price of polyester bottle - grade chips in East China increased from 5950 yuan/ton to 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton or 2.2%. The spot price of polyester filament POY in East China increased from 6550 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 2.3%. The spot price of polyester filament FDY in East China increased from 7800 yuan/ton to 7925 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton or 1.6%. The spot price of polyester filament DTY in East China increased from 6800 yuan/ton to 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton or 2.9%. The spot price of polyester industrial yarn in East China decreased from 9000 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.3%. The prices of 300T 50D*50D Ditaff and 210T 75D*75D Chunyafang remained unchanged [2]. PX Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: During the week, Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance. The two 1.6 - million - ton units of Fuhai Chuang, one 1 - million - ton unit of Weilian Chemical, and one 700,000 - ton unit of Fujia Dahua continued maintenance. This week, the domestic PX output was 694,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%. The weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 82.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35% [3]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PX supply - demand difference has generally shown a negative value, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PX supply - demand difference was - 99,200 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.7244 million tons [3]. PTA Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: There were no new changes in domestic plants during the week, and the domestic PTA supply remained stable. From July 18th to July 24th, 2025, the domestic PTA output was 1.445 million tons, the same as last week, and 39,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The weekly average domestic PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.76%, the same as last week and 0.97% higher than the same period last year [4]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PTA supply - demand difference has been positive in most periods, and the inventory has been gradually increasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PTA supply - demand difference was 45,500 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.8038 million tons [4]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: This week, the load of some units in the petroleum - integrated plants was slightly adjusted, with no maintenance or restart. In terms of coal - chemical industry, Yangmei Shouyang's plant restarted after maintenance, Inner Mongolia Jinyuan's plant restarted after a short - term shutdown, and the load of Xinjiang Zhongkun's plant increased, as did the load of Shanxi Meijin. This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 59.20%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. This week, the weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.22% [5]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the MEG supply - demand difference has generally been negative, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the MEG supply - demand difference was - 36,800 tons, and the ending inventory was 1.8424 million tons [6]. Polyester Products - Polyester staple fiber: Downstream replenishment has stimulated short - fiber inventory reduction, but the spot processing fee has continued to decline. The short - fiber operating rate has decreased, and the output has decreased by 3,100 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.90% [57][66]. - Polyester bottle - grade chips: The raw material prices have shown a strong performance, and the bottle - grade chips processing fee has been slightly compressed. The operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited [71]. - Polyester, filament, weaving, and dyeing: The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The filament operating rate has decreased, and the polyester operating rate has decreased by 0.29% month - on - month. The filament production and sales have increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The filament production profit has recovered. The textile enterprise operating rate has continuously decreased, and the downstream overall performance has been weak. The pure - polyester yarn operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased [81][82][85].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PX: Unilateral trend weakens, pay attention to PXN profit hedging and locking, and future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [3] - PTA: Unilateral trend weakens, the industry can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the 01 contract long PX short PTA [4] - MEG: Short at high prices, with limited upside space for the unilateral price [5][6] - Polyester: The possibility of further large - scale production cuts is decreasing, and the overall load is expected to recover in August [4][174] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX forward curve shifts up as a whole, and profits are repaired. PXN rises, and gasoline cracking spreads decline, with Asian aromatics blending demand weakening [16][28][34] - Aromatic valuations rise as a whole, toluene disproportionation profits are acceptable, and the PX - MX spread remains high [45] Supply and Demand - In June, PX domestic production increased to 3.19 million tons, and this week's operating rate was 79.9% (-1.2%). Future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [57][65][66] - In June, the import volume was 770,000 tons. South Korea's PX exports to China in May were 30,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons, and China's imports from Saudi Arabia continued to be low [68][70] Inventory - In June, Longzhong's monthly PX inventory decreased to 4.35 million tons (-160,000 tons) [87] PTA Valuation and Profit - Spot supply increases, mainly conduct basis reverse hedging and monthly spread positive hedging operations. PTA processing fees are at a relatively low level, and pay attention to the compression position of PTA processing fees under high valuations [98][107] Supply and Demand - This week's PTA operating rate remained at 79.7%. In August, pay attention to the maintenance and restart of multiple devices, and the new 3 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang Hailun Petrochemical is expected to start [111][118] - In June, the export volume was 260,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in July - August. Port inventory continues to rise, and the cumulative amplitude of total inventory is lower than expected [119][134] MEG Valuation and Profit - Unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, and monthly spreads decline, with limited downward space. MEG's relative valuations to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics have all rebounded to the highest level this year, and profits in each link have been significantly repaired [148][153][155] Supply and Demand - Import volume: 620,000 tons in June, expected 630,000 tons in July, expected below 600,000 tons in August, and expected to recover in September. Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol plant operating rate increased to 74%; the total domestic ethylene glycol load was 66% (-1.37%) [5] - The reduction of filament factories has limited impact on the overall polyester operating rate. The current visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has continued to rise month - on - month [6][167] Polyester Supply and Demand - This week's polyester operating rate was 88.7% (+0.2%), and large - scale production cuts are expected to come to an end. The overall load is expected to recover in August [171][174]

下游景气度见底反弹， 原料估值跟随商品情绪修复 聚酯周报 2025/07/26 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 05 MEG基本面 03 对二甲苯基本面 06 聚酯及终端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结——PX ◆ 价格表现：上周大幅反弹，09合约单周上涨252元，报7062元。现货端CFR中国上涨35美元，报874美元。现货折算基差上涨28元，截至7月25 日为133元。9-1价差下降28元，截至7月25日为112元。 ◆ 供应端：上周中国负荷79.9%，环比下降1.2%；亚洲负荷72.9%，环比下降0.7%。装置方面，盛虹因前道装置故障进一步降负，天津石化检修， 金陵石化提负。进口方面，7月中上旬韩国PX出口中国23.8万吨，同比下降0.5万吨。整体上，后续国内检修量仍然偏少，负荷持续偏高。 ◆ 需求端：PTA负荷79.7%，环比持平，装置方面，上周变动不大。PTA短 ...

装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2024- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2023- 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2024-07 2024-09 05 0d 01 05 09 01 05 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 =DTY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 切片现金流 涤短现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/7/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/23 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 504. 3 | 503. 7 | -0. 60 | 成交情况: PTA: 今日大宗化工品行情整体冲高回落,PTA行情窄 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1129. 2 | 1123.6 | -5. 64 | 幅上涨。PTA供应充足,主力供应商继续出货,PTA现 货基差波动有限。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3081 | 1. 3069 | -0. 0012 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 843 | 842 | -1 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 270 | 276 | 6 | | | ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Bullish [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Bullish sideways [6] - Silver: Bullish [6] - Pulp: Sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: Bullish sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways correction [8] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: Sideways with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: On the sidelines [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: Sideways with a bearish bias [10] Core Views - The anti-involution policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, but the long-term supply-demand surplus pattern of iron ore remains unchanged. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the steel and glass markets are supported by macro and policy factors. The stock index futures market shows a mixed trend, and the bond market is expected to rebound slightly. The precious metals market is expected to be bullish, and the pulp and log markets are expected to be bullish sideways. The oil and fat market may correct in the short term, and the agricultural products market shows a mixed trend. The soft commodities market is expected to be sideways, and the polyester market is on the sidelines [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore port inventory increased slightly, and the short-term fundamentals are acceptable. The long-term supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively low. The price has broken through the previous high and is expected to be bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the second round of price increases, the cost pressure of coke remains, and the market is expected to be bullish. The current fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term. The coking plant's operation is stable, and the supply is slightly tight. The downstream demand is weak, but the steel mill's procurement enthusiasm has increased [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The anti-involution policy has boosted the supply-side sentiment, and the steel industry's stable growth expectation has pushed up the market sentiment. The construction material demand has declined in the off-season, but the profit of the five major steel products is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is expected to be low, and the price is supported by macro and policy factors [2] - Glass: The anti-involution trading may continue, and the macro environment is neutral to bullish. The demand for glass deep processing orders has weakened, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure remains. The downstream inventory is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long-term demand is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.67%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The construction materials and engineering machinery sectors saw capital inflows, while the education and banking sectors saw capital outflows. The European leaders' visit to China and the stable LPR have boosted the market sentiment. The market risk aversion has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 1bp, and the market interest rate was stable. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to rebound slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] Precious Metals Industry - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and hedging attributes of gold are prominent. The US debt problem and the trade tension have supported the price of gold. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] - Silver: The price of silver is expected to be bullish. The inflation data shows resilience, and the market uncertainty before the new tariff deadline has increased the demand for hedging funds. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September has supported the price of silver [6] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp is rising, but the cost is falling, which weakens the support for the price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off-season. The anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: The daily出库 volume of logs has increased, and the cost has risen, which strengthens the support for the price. The supply pressure is not large, and the anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment. The price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but the inventory increased. The export may slow down in July. The production of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil. The domestic inventory of the three major oils is rising, and the supply is abundant. The demand is in the off-season, but the biodiesel expectation has boosted the price. The price may correct in the short term [6][8] Agricultural Products Industry - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The estimated yield of US soybeans has been reduced, but the end-of-year inventory has increased. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the price has risen slightly but is expected to decline. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is restricted by high temperatures. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8] Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply of natural rubber is tight due to rainfall, and the price has risen. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has recovered, but the growth is restricted by the market demand. The inventory of natural rubber is increasing, and the price is expected to be sideways [10] Polyester Industry - PX: The geopolitical situation has eased, which has pressured the oil price. The short-term supply of PX is tight, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost is sideways, and the supply has increased. The downstream polyester factory's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the medium-term supply-demand is expected to weaken. The price follows the cost in the short term [10] - MEG: The recent arrival volume is small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure has eased. The medium-term supply-demand is expected to be balanced. The cost has rebounded, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [10] - PR: The cost is supportive, but the downstream demand is rigid. The polyester bottle sheet market is expected to be sorted out narrowly [10] - PF: The support is weak, and the industry supply pressure is large. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [10]

| 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6862 | 4780 | 4410 | 6432 | 512.3 | | 涨跌 | 6810 | 36 | 34 | 60 | -3.5 | | 涨跌幅 | 52 | 0.76% | 0.78% | 0.94% | -0.68% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | 昨日收盘价 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 16 | 25.8 | | 前日收盘价 | 140 | 52 | 16 | 40 | 16.2 | | 涨跌 | -48 | -36 | -13 | -24 | 9.6 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | | 金/吨） | | | | 金/桶) | | 昨日价格 | 842.33 | 4782 | 4467 | 572.88 | 70 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **PX**: Unilateral prices are expected to be moderately strong with a bullish spread between the September and January contracts. Suggest rolling long positions in the PX calendar spread, and also pay attention to the strategy of going long on PX and short on EB/EG [3][5]. - **PTA**: Due to weak downstream demand and cost - related factors, TA prices will fluctuate. The spread between the September and January contracts should be traded within the range of 20 - 70. PTA is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, and the basis may stabilize and rebound. Consider strategies such as going long on PTA and short on PF [7]. - **MEG**: The September - January spread should reduce positions. Unilateral prices should be traded within the range of 4250 - 4450. The basis and spread suggest exiting the calendar spread long positions in the short - term. The upside for the unilateral price is limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX - **Valuation and Profit**: Unilateral prices are moderately strong, and the 9 - 1 spread rebounds. The gasoline crack spread declines, and the Asian aromatics blending demand weakens. The toluene disproportionation profit is decent, and the PX - MX spread remains high [21][34][44]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production capacity utilization slightly decreases, and attention should be paid to potential maintenance at Tianjin Petrochemical in late July. Overseas, some plants have restarts and shutdowns. The apparent consumption in May was 355 tons, and the maintenance loss in July decreases. The import volume in May rebounded to 773,000 tons [55][59][64]. - **Inventory**: The monthly inventory in June decreased to 4.35 million tons [83]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit**: The calendar spread long positions should take profit. The basis rebounds from the bottom, and the processing fee is at a low level, with weakening profits in the polyester segment [94][104]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate remains stable at 79.7%. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang's new plant. The export volume in May decreased significantly to 270,000 tons, and is expected to rebound in June and July. The inventory has increased [107][115][135]. MEG - **Valuation and Profit**: Unilateral valuation is in a range - bound market, and the spread weakens with limited downside. The profits in each segment decline month - on - month, and MTO and ethylene - purchased MEG production are in severe losses [141][149]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate decreased month - on - month. The import volume in June was 620,000 tons, and is expected to remain the same in July. The import profit is generally low, the visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has been increasing [156][160][167]. Polyester Segment - **Valuation and Profit**: No specific information on valuation and profit is provided. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate is 88.5% (- 0.3%). The production of polyester has increased by 8% year - on - year. The inventory pressure of filament yarn has increased significantly, while the inventory of staple fiber and bottle chips is acceptable [171][178][180].