聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：趋势偏弱 | 供应 | 国内PX开工率87.8%（+4.1%）。本周福海创两条分别为80万吨的PX装置升温重启，福佳大化70万吨PX装置检修计划亦未兑现，然中海油惠 州1#95万吨及2#150万吨PX装置恢复近满负荷运行。后续持续跟踪浙石化装置检修时间公布及盛虹重整装置停车对PX环节的影响。 | | --- | --- | | | 海外周内SK仁川短暂着火并未影响PX开工，另外日本ENEOS19万吨、出光德山26.5万吨装置有望重启。 | | 需求 | 本周PTA负荷76.8%（+4%）。独山能源250万吨重启，恒力惠州250万吨重启，未来福海创450万吨装置可能重启。10月份关注独山能源PTA 新装置投产进度。英力士125万吨计划10月中旬检修，10-11月份恒力大连装置或有检修。 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recovery speed of the terminal market is slow, and the upstream valuation is difficult to expand. PX, PTA, and MEG markets have different supply - demand and inventory situations. PX and MEG are expected to have inventory accumulation, while PTA is expected to continue de - stocking. The polyester end is gradually warming up, but the terminal performance is still poor. Attention should be paid to the follow - up performance of terminal orders and the opportunities of going long on dips following the raw materials during the peak season [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: Last month, the price first declined with crude oil and then increased due to unexpected production cuts in the raw material end. However, the actual unexpected maintenance volume was lower than expected, and the terminal performance was weak, suppressing the raw material valuation. Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. But due to the commissioning of new PTA devices, the inventory accumulation range of PX is not large. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downside space. However, due to the lack of driving force, PXN has limited upward momentum. The current valuation is at a moderately low level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [11] - **PTA**: Last month, the processing fee first increased after unexpected maintenance and then was compressed again. PXN was weak due to inventory accumulation, and crude oil fluctuated downward, causing the PTA price to rise and then fall. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has changed to de - stocking. However, due to the non - implementation of some maintenance, the processing fee is suppressed. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester and chemical fiber is low, and the downstream and terminal operations have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. In terms of valuation, PXN has limited downside space under the improved pattern brought by PTA commissioning, and the raw material end valuations are all at low levels. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the terminal performance improves during the peak season [12] - **MEG**: Last month, the port inventory continued to decline, providing strong support for the overall valuation. However, the valuation weakened with the news of new device commissioning plans. In terms of industry fundamentals, the maintenance devices at home and abroad have gradually started, and the operation rate has reached a high level, with a high domestic supply. However, due to the low port arrival volume in the short term, the port inventory is expected to be low. In the medium term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected continuous high domestic load, the inventory will turn to accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and the low short - term arrival volume supports the valuation, but there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [13] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **PX**: The basis fluctuated weakly, and the spread strengthened. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are presented in relevant charts [32][39][42] - **PTA**: The basis gradually weakened, and the spread was weak. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are shown in relevant charts [45][51][54] - **MEG**: The basis first declined and then strengthened, and the spread fluctuated weakly. The open interest was at a low level, and the trading volume decreased. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are presented in relevant charts [57][63][66][69] - **Overseas Commodity Prices**: The overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China are shown in relevant charts [71][72] 3. Para - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - **Capacity**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2025, such as the 300 - ton new capacity of Yantai Yulongdao [76] - **Supply**: The domestic and Asian PX loads are at a high level, and the maintenance volume in September is expected to further decrease, with an expected increase in production. The import volume from South Korea to China in August increased slightly [11] - **Demand**: The PTA load at the end of the month decreased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance volume in September decreased, and the average load is expected to be higher than that in August [11] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased year - on - year at the end of July, is expected to accumulate slightly in August, and will continue to accumulate in September [11] - **Cost and Profit**: PXN decreased by 33 dollars last month, and the short - process profit is relatively strong. The gasoline performance in the aromatics blending oil market improved slightly, and the gasoline cracking spread was weak [11][95] 4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity**: New capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 250 - ton new capacity of Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III) in 2025 [127] - **Supply**: The PTA load at the end of the month decreased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance volume in September decreased, and the average load is expected to be higher than that in August [12] - **Demand**: The polyester load at the end of the month increased year - on - year, and the terminal situation has recovered but is still weak year - on - year [12] - **Inventory**: The PTA social inventory decreased year - on - month in August, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in September [12] - **Profit and Valuation**: The spot and futures processing fees increased month - on - month, but the overall processing fee is still weak [12] 5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **Capacity**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 80 - ton new capacity of Yulong Petrochemical 1 in 2025 [142] - **Supply**: The overall load of MEG has risen to a high level. The load of synthetic gas - based and ethylene - based production has increased. The import volume decreased slightly in July, and the arrival volume is expected to increase in the middle and late September [13][145] - **Demand**: The polyester load at the end of the month increased year - on - year, and the terminal situation has recovered but is still weak year - on - year [13] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased year - on - month, and the downstream factory inventory days decreased slightly. Although the domestic production increased in September, the port inventory is expected to remain low due to the concentrated arrival of ships in the middle and late period. In the medium term, inventory accumulation is expected [13] - **Cost and Profit**: The coal price was weakly volatile, and the ethylene price increased slightly. The valuation of MEG profit is relatively high [13][167] 6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **Capacity**: New polyester filament devices have been commissioned, and new capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 20 - ton new capacity of Hengchao in 2024 [184][187] - **Supply**: The operation rate has continued to recover, and the operation rates of polyester filament, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have increased [190][193] - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of polyester filament is moderate, the short - fiber inventory is neutral year - on - year, and the bottle - chip inventory is still high [197][200] - **Profit**: The profit of polyester filament has improved [206] - **Terminal** - **Operation**: The operation rate is still weak year - on - year [210] - **Orders and Inventory**: Orders have continued to improve, inventory has decreased, and raw material inventory has increased [219] - **Consumption**: The growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand has decreased, and exports are weak [224]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, and the weakness of benzene prices has suppressed the further increase of PX production to a certain extent. The spread between PX and MX has rebounded, the downstream load of polyester has remained at around 88%, domestic PTA plants have gradually returned, and domestic PTA production has increased. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, especially the significant reduction of filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, the maintenance expectations of some downstream devices are relatively strong [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): South Korea's naphtha cracking units plan to cut production, and olefin varieties have risen significantly. The price of ethylene glycol has rebounded, and the maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol units, especially Saudi Arabian units, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook. This has also continuously boosted the price of ethylene glycol. The later arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: The price rose from 483.5 yuan/barrel on September 1st to 490.4 yuan/barrel on September 2nd, an increase of 6.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price decreased from 1258.4 yuan/ton to 1192.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.14 yuan/ton; the ratio decreased from 1.3581 to 1.3345, a decrease of 0.0236 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price decreased from 848 to 846, a decrease of 2; the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 251 to 250, a decrease of 1 [2]. - **PTA**: The main contract futures price decreased from 4772 yuan/ton to 4756 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.0 yuan/ton; the spot price increased from 4720 yuan/ton to 4725 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.0 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 180.0 yuan/ton to 179.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/ton; the on - disk processing fee decreased from 222.0 yuan/ton to 215.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.4 yuan/ton; the main contract basis decreased from (42) to (49), a decrease of 7.0 [2]. - **MEG**: The main contract futures price decreased from 4427 yuan/ton to 4339 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.0 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (100.96) yuan/ton to (110.15) yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.2 yuan/ton; the domestic MEG price decreased from 4513 yuan/ton to 4468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.0 yuan/ton; the main contract basis increased from 84 to 88, an increase of 4.0 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 6860 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged at 7130 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 8035 yuan/ton. POY cash flow increased from 63 to 73, an increase of 10.0; FDY cash flow increased from (167) to (157), an increase of 10.0; DTY cash flow increased from 38 to 48, an increase of 10.0. The filament sales rate decreased from 40% to 38%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6605 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the cash flow decreased from 158 to 153, a decrease of 5.0; the sales rate increased from 39% to 42%, an increase of 3% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips remained unchanged at 5815 yuan/ton; the cash flow increased from (82) to (72), an increase of 10.0; the sales rate decreased from 65% to 61%, a decrease of 4% [2]. b) Industry Operation - **Operating Rates**: The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 82.59%, the PTA operating rate increased from 72.55% to 74.26%, an increase of 1.71%, the MEG operating rate remained unchanged at 62.03%, and the polyester load remained unchanged at 87.99% [2]. c) Device Maintenance It is reported that a 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in South China has started maintenance today, and another 2.5 - million - ton plant is expected to start maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of more than one month [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PTA market had limited overall fluctuations, with sufficient spot supply, a weakening spot basis, and a slight decline in prices. The expansion of the spread between PX and naphtha and the weak benzene price restricted the further increase in PX production. With the improvement in recent sales and inventory reduction, especially the significant reduction of filament inventory, profits were significantly repaired, but some downstream devices had strong maintenance expectations [2]. - The ethylene glycol price rebounded. The planned production cut of South Korean naphtha cracking units and the continuous postponement of the maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol units, especially Saudi Arabian units, would have a significant impact on the market outlook, boosting the ethylene glycol price. The later arrival volume of ethylene glycol decreased, polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price decreased from 485.2 yuan/barrel on August 29, 2025, to 483.5 yuan/barrel on September 1, 2025, a decrease of 1.70 yuan/barrel. PTA-SC increased from 1258.0 yuan/ton to 1258.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3568 to 1.3581, an increase of 0.0014 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 849 to 848, a decrease of 1. The PX-naphtha spread decreased from 252 to 251, a decrease of 1 [2]. - The PTA主力期价 decreased from 4784 yuan/ton to 4772 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.0 yuan/ton. The PTA现货价格 decreased from 4740 yuan/ton to 4720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 197.3 yuan/ton to 180.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.3 yuan/ton. The盘面加工费 decreased from 231.3 yuan/ton to 222.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.3 yuan/ton. The主力基差 decreased from (35) to (42), a decrease of 7.0. The PTA仓单数量 decreased from 29938 to 29742, a decrease of 196 [2]. - The MEG主力期价 decreased from 4466 yuan/ton to 4427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.0 yuan/ton. MEG-石脑油 increased from (101.88) to (101.07), an increase of 0.8. MEG内盘 decreased from 4536 yuan/ton to 4513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.0 yuan/ton. The主力基差 increased from 67 to 68, an increase of 1.0 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - The PX开工率 remained unchanged at 82.59%. The PTA开工率 increased from 70.76% to 72.55%, an increase of 1.79%. The MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 62.03%. The聚酯负荷 increased from 87.15% to 87.99%, an increase of 0.84% [2]. Product Data - Among polyester filaments, POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6860, POY现金流 increased from 38 to 63, an increase of 25.0; FDY150D/96F decreased from 7140 to 7130, a decrease of 10.0, FDY现金流 increased from (182) to (167), an increase of 15.0; DTY150D/48F decreased from 8040 to 8035, a decrease of 5.0, DTY现金流 increased from 18 to 38, an increase of 20.0; the长丝产销 decreased from 42% to 40%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - For polyester staple fibers, 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6610 to 6605, a decrease of 5, 涤短现金流 increased from 138 to 158, an increase of 20.0, and the短纤产销 decreased from 45% to 39%, a decrease of 6% [2]. - For polyester chips, the半光切片 decreased from 5850 to 5815, a decrease of 35.0, 切片现金流 decreased from (72) to (82), a decrease of 10.0, and the切片产销 decreased from 78% to 65%, a decrease of 13% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 million - ton PTA device in South China started maintenance today, and another 2.5 million - ton device was expected to start maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of more than one month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the PX price rose and then retraced. The absolute price on Friday was down 0.9% week - on - week to $849/ton CFR, but the weekly average price still increased slightly by 1.4% to $855/ton CFR. The PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether the PX profit can continue to improve depends on more unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, and its social inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand of new PTA production facilities. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester production is gradually recovering [2]. - The PTA spot supply is sufficient, and the spot basis is weakening, which is negative for market sentiment. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to continuously boost the price. As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester production load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. The terminal demand is still weakly recovering, but the downstream's bullish expectation has increased. The industrial chain profit is shifting towards the raw material segment, and PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5880 - 6030 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The bottle - chip supply side has a stable - to - falling price offer, and the downstream is cautious. The overall production reduction of the supply side has not changed significantly, and the market spot supply is abundant [2]. - Currently, the pricing logic is still cost - driven. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.01/barrel, down 0.91% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.12/barrel, down 0.73%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.38/ton, up 0.59%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $691.50/ton, up 0.29%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $849.00/ton, up 0.04% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 4774 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4722 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4718 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4776 yuan/ton, down 1.34%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4740 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of overseas PTA was $634.00/ton, down 0.47% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the settlement price was 6844 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6702 yuan/ton, down 2.53%; the settlement price was 6866 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The domestic PX spot price was 6738 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The PXN spread was $251.63/ton, down 1.24%; the PX - MX spread was $157.50/ton, down 1.05% [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the settlement price was 5954 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5836 yuan/ton, up 0.52%; the settlement price was 5832 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5960 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 29, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6540 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5885 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. Production and Sales Information - On August 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain was 82.59%, up 2.21 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 70.76%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 1.12 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.09%, up 1.16 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 41.62%, down 1.77 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 45.86%, up 5.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 77.76%, up 35.24 percentage points [1]. Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with an intraday trading volume of 602,600 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, with an intraday trading volume of 270,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.20%, with an intraday trading volume of 60,500 lots [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 31, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: PX Analysis Core View - Unilateral trend is strong, but do not chase high, buy on dips; 11 - 01 calendar spread is in a positive carry, 1 - 5 is in an inverse carry; for cross - variety, long PX short EB, long naphtha short PX, long PTA short PX in the 11 contract [3] Supply - Asian PX operating rate is 75.6% (-0.7%), domestic PX operating rate is 83.3% (-1.3%). In September, Fujia Dahua plans to conduct maintenance, while Fuhua Group plans to restart, leading to a marginal increase in supply [3][47] Demand - Domestic PTA plants have unexpected maintenance due to environmental issues, and the PTA operating rate has decreased. There are also potential maintenance plans for Xin Fengming's PTA plants at the end of August [3] Valuation - PXN drops to $254/ton (-$16), PX - MX spread is $135 (-$6)/ton [3] Market Indicators - Zhengshang PX futures forward curve declines; PX CFR China price, PX RMB price, and PX futures prices show certain fluctuations, with the 09 contract's foreign - domestic spread and 9 - 1 month spread changing [15][16] Related Factors - China's gasoline export plan decreases, overseas oil product cracking spreads strengthen; Asian octane value rebounds significantly; US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, and US octane value strengthens month - on - month; MX isomerization unit profit reaches a new high [25][26][33][36] Group 3: PTA Analysis Core View - Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the trend is strong. Buy on dips [4] Supply - After the unexpected shutdown of Hengli Huizhou's device, PTA turns into a de - stocking pattern. Some plants have maintenance or production suspension, and new devices are put into production. The PTA load is 70.4% (-1.2%) [4] Demand - Polyester device load maintains at 90.3% (+0.3%). In September, the polyester operating rate is expected to be around 91% on average. However, the downstream grey fabric has difficulty in raising prices, and the market has doubts about the peak season, resulting in the polyester operating rate recovering slower than expected [4] Valuation - PTA spot processing fee is 235/ton (+28), the 01 contract processing fee is 342 yuan/ton (-2), and the 09 contract processing fee is 230 (-22), rebounding after a decline [4] Market Indicators - Unilateral price rises first and then falls back; the basis weakens; the 1 - 5 month spread is in an inverse carry; the number of PTA warehouse receipts shows certain changes [77][79][81] Related Factors - Container freight rates decline, which is beneficial for exports; PTA exports increase from July to August; PTA inventory declines again [89][91][106] Foreign Investment Position - This week, foreign institutional seats' short positions increase to 26,000 lots; Morgan Qiankun's PTA position turns short again [112][113] Group 4: MEG Analysis Core View - Unilateral is in a sideways market, do not chase high. Above 4550, the valuation is high. Long PTA short MEG [5] Supply - MEG device operating rate continues to rise to 75.1% (+2%). Although some coal - chemical devices have maintenance, the overall load is still at a high level. Overseas arrivals are expected to increase again this week [5][137] Demand - Polyester device load maintains at 90.3% (+0.3%), and the recovery of polyester operating rate is slower than expected, which has a negative impact on raw materials [5] Valuation - Coal - based MEG profit rebounds to 562 (+40) yuan/ton, naphtha - based MEG loss expands to - 700 (-30) yuan/ton, and MTO profit recovers [5][133] Market Indicators - Unilateral price shows an upward trend, and the month spread is at a low level; MEG's relative valuations against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics all rise to the highest levels of the year [126][130] Related Factors - Sheng Hong's unexpected shutdown has a slight and short - term impact on the load; overall supply increases; MEG imports are expected to increase in September; overseas device, such as Ma You 75, restarts [135][139][141] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material and Polyester Production Plan - PX production capacity will increase by 3 million tons in the second half of the year; PTA production capacity will increase by 6 million tons; MEG production capacity will increase by 800,000 tons; polyester production capacity will increase by 3.05 million tons throughout the year, with a relatively even distribution [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cost - end: Overnight crude oil prices dropped significantly and continued to decline during Asian trading hours. The 50% tariff imposed by the US on India led to a bearish outlook on crude oil demand, and API inventory data showed an unexpected inventory build in the US, pressuring oil prices. For PX, China's PX load is gradually recovering, and the PX balance sheet has shifted from de - stocking to a loose balance. Although the near - month PX floating price has weakened, PXN has support due to low inventory and new PTA device demand. For TA, PTA maintenance has increased, improving supply - demand, and the September balance sheet will shift from a loose balance to significant de - stocking. The reduction of September contracts by Hengli may cause supply - demand tension in South China [2]. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 90.0% (up 0.6% month - on - month), showing signs of recovery. Export shipments and domestic sales stocking are increasing. The load of weaving and texturing is on the rise, with the peak expected in September. Currently, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and profitability is improving. The bottle - chip market has slow de - stocking, and the load is expected to recover in September. For PF, the production profit is 107 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the average load has increased to 91.9%. The downstream load is rising, and inventory is being depleted. For PR, the spot processing fee is 297 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month), and major factories will maintain production cuts in August, with the load expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral: PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral. Continue to monitor the PX devices of Shenghong and Zhejiang Petrochemical. For PX, the concentrated restart of PX devices in August and increased PTA maintenance have weakened the fundamentals, but low inventory supports PXN. For TA, the improvement in supply - demand due to PTA maintenance in August and the shift to de - stocking in September, along with potential supply - demand tension in South China, require attention to the return of maintenance devices. For PF, demand has slightly improved, and inventory is being depleted, but the willingness to chase rising raw material prices is low. For PR, major factories have extended maintenance plans, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to range - bound trading after recovery. Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fees at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.335MEG2601. Cross - period: No relevant strategies [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures 1 - 4 show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spreads, as well as the PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures 5 - 8 show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures 9 - 11 show the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Figures 12 - 16 show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures 17 - 22 show the weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures 23 - 36 show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of different filaments, and the profits of different filaments [47][49][66] PF Detailed Data - Figures 37 - 46 show the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn startup rate, production profit, polyester - cotton yarn startup rate, and processing fees [70][77][81] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures 49 - 56 show the polyester bottle - chip load, factory bottle - chip inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and month - to - month spreads [86][93][96]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: Affected by the weakening of oil prices, the PX price has dropped rapidly, but it remains in a tight - balance pattern with limited downside space. Although this week's PX trend was weaker than expected due to high domestic supply and unconfirmed maintenance plans, there is support from potential oil price rebounds and polyester sales volume at low prices. It is recommended to continue to focus on the positive spread position of monthly differentials and go long on PX and short on EB [6]. - PTA: Go long on PTA and short on MEG. This week's PTA trend was weaker than expected. Polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to cut production in September, and the PTA spot basis has weakened. However, PTA supply will be in a tight - balance or even a slight de - stocking situation in September, and the unilateral price is not considered to be in a trend - like decline [7]. - MEG: Do a 9 - 1 positive spread. There is significant pressure above 4600 for the 01 contract, and hedging is recommended at high prices. With low port arrivals in the past two weeks, port inventories have decreased. The basis is strong, and there is an economic incentive to take delivery for the 09 contract. Attention should be paid to the proportion of warehouse - receipt holdings and the 9 - 1 positive spread. There will be new production capacity from Yulong Petrochemical in October, so the 01 contract still faces supply - increase pressure, and it is advisable to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session. On the 28th, the PX price dropped. The Asian PX price fell on August 28 after more than a week of increase, due to the pressure of weakening crude - oil futures. The polyester industry provided little support for the PX price, with the downstream factory operating rate at about 89.9% this week, slightly lower than the previous week. There were bids and offers for October and November deliveries on the 28th, but no transactions were completed [3][4]. - PTA: In the Chinese mainland, Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, Sanfangxiang's 1.2 - million - ton plant was shut down, and the second line of its 3.2 - million - ton new plant was put into production with increased load. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 70.4%, and the calculated operating rate was around 76.1% [5]. - MEG: As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 75.13% (a 1.97% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic - acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 77.74% (a 3.51% decrease from the previous period) [5]. - Polyester: This week, the operating load of large - scale domestic polyester industrial - yarn manufacturers remained basically stable, with individual slight adjustments. As of now, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is about 72%. There were both maintenance and start - up of polyester plants this week, and the overall polyester load was slightly adjusted locally. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 89.9%. A 180,000 - ton polyester plant in Changshu was shut down temporarily due to an accident, and the restart time is uncertain. On the 28th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 44%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was locally increased, with an average of about 50% - 60% [5]. Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6886 | 4792 | 4465 | 6526 | 481.7 | | Change | - 0.78% | - 0.66% | - 0.36% | - 0.70% | 0.42% | | Monthly Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 48 | - 56 | - 41 | - 96 | - 8.7 | | Monthly Spread (Change) | - 38 | - 16 | 5 | - 28 | - 1.4 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 848.67 (USD/ton) | 4775 (CNY/ton) | 4525 | 593.88 | 67.45 (USD/barrel) | | Spot Price (Change) | - 5.5 | - 62 | - 25 | 3.5 | 0.18 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 270.33 | 248.5 | 102.62 | - 88.83 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 1.16 | 13.1 | 16.36 | - 47.62 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend - intensity value ranging from - 2 to 2 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Owing to concerns about sanctions on Russia and increased demand from India, oil prices are rebounding. The domestic PX inventory is at a historical low, offering strong support. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unforeseen factors. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester production is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to when positive feedback will occur. PTA has sufficient spot supply, weak downstream polyester sales, and limited upward momentum. The current PTA processing fee is in a low - range, and price increases require market sentiment and new device production expectations. Polyester bottle - chip supply is abundant, and downstream purchasing is weak. The pricing logic of PX, PTA, and PR is cost - driven, and all are expected to fluctuate [2] Summary by Directory Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 26, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $63.25 per barrel, down 2.39%; Brent crude oil was $67.22 per barrel, down 2.30%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $600 per ton, up 1.27%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $694 per ton, up 0.51%. The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $864 per ton, up 0.66% [1] - **PTA**: On August 26, 2025, the CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,870 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; the settlement price was 4,882 yuan per ton, up 0.16%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,874 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,865 yuan per ton, up 0.10%; the foreign price index was $640 per ton, up 0.31% [1] - **PX**: On August 26, 2025, the CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,994 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; the settlement price was 7,050 yuan per ton, up 0.97%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,832 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX CFR Taiwan, China was $865 per ton, up 0.58%; the FOB South Korea price was $840 per ton, up 0.60% [1] - **PR**: On August 26, 2025, the CZCE PR main contract closing price was 6,034 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the settlement price was 6,058 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chip in East China was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; in South China, it was 6,020 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **Downstream**: On August 26, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,750 yuan per ton, up 0.57%; the index of polyester POY was 7,125 yuan per ton, unchanged. The index of polyester FDY68D was 7,300 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the index of polyester FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, up 0.70%. The index of polyester staple fiber was 6,585 yuan per ton, up 0.08%. The index of polyester chip was 5,960 yuan per ton, unchanged. The index of bottle - grade chip was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.50% [2] Spread Information - On August 26, 2025, the PXN spread was $264 per ton, down 0.69%; the PX - MX spread was $170 per ton, up 1.29%. The TA near - far month spread was - 38 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; the TA basis was - 5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan. The PX basis was - 162 yuan per ton, a decrease of 24 yuan. The PR basis in East China was - 84 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; in South China, it was - 14 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan [1] Operating Rate and Sales Rate - On August 26, 2025, the operating rate of the PX polyester industry chain was 80.38%, unchanged. The PTA factory load rate was 72.16%, down 2.58 percentage points; the polyester factory load rate was 86.11%, down 0.23 percentage points; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 59.42%, unchanged. The polyester filament sales rate was 50.15%, up 6.44 percentage points; the polyester staple fiber sales rate was 41.02%, down 6.31 percentage points; the polyester chip sales rate was 54.42%, up 2.21 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2] Trading Strategy - On August 26, 2025, the TA2601 contract closed at 4,870 yuan per ton, down 0.08%, with a trading volume of 818,200 lots. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,994 yuan per ton, up 0.17%, with a trading volume of 442,100 lots. The PR2511 contract closed at 6,034 yuan per ton, up 0.26%, with a trading volume of 76,200 lots. International oil prices ended a four - day increase and closed lower. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to fluctuate [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PTA price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to weak cost and cautious demand expectations. The supply of PX and PTA may increase due to high - device operation rates and new production capacities, while the demand lacks strong support, and inventory may accumulate, putting downward pressure on prices. However, seasonal changes in demand and device changes need to be monitored [1][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 19, the PX主力contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 165.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力contract closed at 4,734.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost - end: On August 19, the Brent crude oil主力contract closed at 66.46 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.58 US dollars/barrel. The demand - end: On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 485.47 million meters [2]. - Supply side: The operation rates of PX and PTA devices remain high, and with the gradual implementation of new production capacities, the pressure of increased industry supply may continue to be released. The cost - end drive of PX is weak under the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the processing fees of PTA are suppressed by over - capacity, and the willingness of factories to increase production may further exacerbate the supply - loosening situation [2]. - Demand side: The transactions in the Light Textile City maintain a weak and stable pattern. Although the downstream polyester operation rate has not weakened significantly, the fabric orders lack substantial improvement. The traditional textile peak season is approaching, but the demand has not shown a continuous improvement, and the terminal negative feedback pressure continues to be transmitted upstream, making it difficult for the PTA demand side to form effective support [2]. - Inventory side: The PTA factory inventory is restricted by the weak basis structure, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. Currently, there are not many active production - reduction actions by factories, and there is still pressure on the price ceiling [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 19, the short - fiber主力contract closed at 6,432.0 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,500.0 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 68.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply side: The PX price has recently shown high - level fluctuations (ranging from 6,614 to 6,832 yuan/ton from August 11 - 19), but the PTA price has risen steadily (up 1.4% to 4,746 yuan/ton during the same period), indicating that the cost - end support is weakening but the downstream acceptance is good [4]. - Demand side: The 15 - day moving average transaction volume of the Light Textile City has continuously rebounded from 479 million meters to 485 million meters, reflecting the gradual recovery of terminal textile demand [4]. - Inventory side: There is a structural differentiation in inventory. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (7.25 days) are significantly higher than the five - year average (4.96 days), while the inventory of polyester filament POY (16.1 days) is lower than the average (20.4 days), and the inventory of FDY/DTY is basically the same as the historical average. The high - inventory pressure of short - fiber may restrict the overall increase, and continue to pay attention to polyester production - reduction information [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 68.14%, and the持仓volume increased by 6.83%. PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 833.33 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.25% [5]. - PTA futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 4,734 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day; the成交volume decreased by 16.25%, and the持仓volume decreased by 2.41%. PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 623 US dollars/ton [5]. - Short - fiber futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,432 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 7.48%, and the持仓volume decreased by 0.53%. Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market increased by 0.08% [5]. - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle flakes, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or changed slightly on August 19 compared with the previous day [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha decreased by 1.09%, and the processing spreads of PTA decreased by 1.57%, while the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged [6]. - Light Textile City transaction volume: On August 19, the total transaction volume was 487 million meters, a decrease of 4.32% compared with the previous day, with the long - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 2.72% and the short - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 9.71% [6]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on August 19 [6]. - Inventory days: From August 7 to August 14, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 19, due to the UK inflation data being higher than expected, traders reduced their bets on the Bank of England's interest - rate cuts, believing that there would be no further cuts this year [7]. - On August 18, Fed's Daly said to wait for more data, and the number of interest - rate cuts may be less or more. It is still a good prediction to cut interest rates twice this year; Goolsbee said that the latest PPI and CPI inflation data were disturbing. If signs show that inflation is not in a spiral in September or later in the fall, interest rates can be cut. The market reduced its bets on interest - rate cuts but still expected a cut in September and another cut in 2025 [7]. - On August 18, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that the plan for Hong Kong to develop an international gold trading center would be announced within the year [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 393.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 93.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA主力futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester short - fiber and long - fiber sales situations, Light Textile City transaction volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13].