1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX, last week's PXN expanded passively due to the pressure on the naphtha spread. PX followed the decline of crude oil. With high PX load, short - term PTA maintenance, and new PTA device commissioning expectations, PX inventory is difficult to deplete. Currently, PXN is at a neutral level and mainly follows crude oil fluctuations. Short - term observation is recommended [11]. - For PTA, last week's PTA processing fee was under pressure due to commissioning expectations, and it mainly followed the passive decline of crude oil. In the future, supply maintenance will decrease, and inventory will gradually accumulate. The processing fee is difficult to expand. The demand side of polyester and chemical fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. Short - term observation is recommended [12]. - For MEG, the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, the domestic supply is high, the import volume has rebounded, and the port has started to accumulate inventory. In the fourth quarter, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected continuous high domestic load, combined with the gradual commissioning of new devices, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The current valuation is still relatively high, and there is pressure to continuously compress the valuation in a weak pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: The price decreased last week. The supply side saw a decline in load in China and Asia, with some device maintenance. The demand side had a slight increase in PTA load. Inventory is expected to slightly decrease in October. PXN expanded passively, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [11]. - **PTA**: The price decreased last week. The supply side had a slight increase in load, and maintenance in October decreased slightly. The demand side had a slight decline in polyester load, and the terminal showed signs of weakness. Inventory is expected to slightly accumulate. The processing fee was under pressure, and short - term observation is recommended [12]. - **MEG**: The price decreased last week. The supply side had an increase in load, and maintenance devices were few. The demand side had a slight decline in polyester load. Inventory is expected to gradually accumulate in the medium - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis and spread were weakly volatile. The position increased, and the trading volume was neutral [32][35]. - **PTA**: The basis was at a low level, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at low levels [44][47]. - **MEG**: The basis was stable, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at low levels [57][63]. 3.3 p - Xylene Fundamental - **Capacity**: There will be new capacity commissioning in 2025 [77]. - **Supply**: The import volume increased in August, and the inventory was stable in August. PXN expanded passively, and the naphtha spread declined [83][91][95]. - **Aromatic Blending Oil**: The gasoline performance weakened, the US - South Korea aromatic spread changed, and the blending oil relative value and South Korea's aromatic inventory also changed [102][111][113]. 3.4 PTA Fundamental - **Capacity**: There will be new capacity commissioning in 2024 - 2025 [135]. - **Supply**: The export volume decreased in August, and the inventory remained at a low level. The processing fee was weak [140][143][146]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Fundamental - **Capacity**: There will be new capacity commissioning in 2024 - 2025 [150]. - **Supply**: The start - up was high, and the load of syngas - based devices was at a historical high. The import volume was slightly flat in August, and the port inventory increased slightly this week [153][155][161]. - **Cost**: Coal prices declined, and ethylene prices fell [171]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New filament devices were commissioned. The basis of staple fiber strengthened, and the basis of bottle chips fluctuated. The start - up rate remained high, the inventory of filament was neutral, the profit of filament improved, and the export situation varied [187][191][194]. - **Terminal**: The start - up was still low. The orders and inventory of textile enterprises were stable, and the raw material inventory decreased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing recovered, but exports were weak. The US clothing inventory was below the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally [214][221][225].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is experiencing a decline due to falling costs, sufficient spot supply, poor downstream polyester filament sales, and weak market confidence. The spot basis has weakened. [2] - The ethylene glycol (MEG) futures are oscillating in a low - range. The spot price in Zhangjiagang has minor adjustments, and the basis negotiation has slightly weakened. [2] - With the approaching end of the polyester peak season and the weakening of the crude oil fundamentals, the polyester market is expected to operate weakly. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 448.6 yuan/barrel on October 14, 2025, to 443.7 yuan/barrel on October 15, 2025, a decrease of 4.90 yuan/barrel. [2] - PTA - SC spread increased from 1180.0 yuan to 1197.6 yuan, a rise of 17.61 yuan; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3620 to 1.3714, an increase of 0.0095. [2] - CFR China PX price increased from 779 to 787, a rise of 8; PX - naphtha spread increased from 212 to 234, a rise of 22. [2] - PTA主力期价 dropped from 4440 yuan/ton to 4422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 dropped from 4380 yuan/ton to 4325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.0 yuan/ton. [2] - PTA现货加工费 dropped from 188.2 yuan/ton to 106.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.3 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 dropped from 263.2 yuan/ton to 203.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59.3 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG主力期价 dropped from 4061 yuan/ton to 4057 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (106.93) yuan/ton to (107.12) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG内盘 dropped from 4145 to 4114, a decrease of 31.0. [2] - POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6520; POY现金流 increased from 137 to 194, a rise of 57.0. [2] - FDY150D/96F dropped from 6710 to 6670, a decrease of 40.0; FDY现金流 increased from (173) to (156), an increase of 17.0. [2] - DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7760; DTY现金流 increased from 177 to 234, a rise of 57.0. [2] - 长丝产销 increased from 46% to 53%, a rise of 7%. [2] - 1.4D直纺涤短 dropped from 6385 to 6375, a decrease of 10; 涤短现金流 increased from 352 to 399, a rise of 47.0. [2] - 短纤产销 increased from 44% to 52%, a rise of 8%. [2] - 半光切片 dropped from 5550 to 5500, a decrease of 50.0; 切片现金流 increased from 67 to 74, a rise of 7.0. [2] - 切片产销 increased from 80% to 129%, a rise of 49%. [2] Industry Chain开工情况 - PX开工率 decreased from 86.21% to 84.62%, a decrease of 1.59%. [2] - PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 77.58%. [2] - MEG开工率 increased from 64.06% to 164.06%, a rise of 100.00%. [2] - 聚酯负荷 remained unchanged at 89.38%. [2] Industry Background and Future Impact - A new cracking ethylene plant in a Shandong refinery was put into operation in mid - September, involving a pure benzene production capacity of about 230,000 tons/year, toluene 130,000 tons/year, xylene 60,000 tons/year, 1.5 million tons of ethylene, and a supporting 800,000 - ton EG is expected to be put into operation in October. [2] - The spread between MX and naphtha narrowed from 88 US dollars/ton last week to 85 US dollars/ton, and the spread between PX and MX dropped to 132 US dollars, continuing to support the short - process profit of PX. [2] - The US - Asia MX arbitrage window expanded to 185 US dollars, but there is no news of South Korea shipping to the US. [2] - Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotation inspections, resulting in a decline in domestic PTA production. [2] - The ethylene glycol inventory in East China ports remains at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are still limited, the overseas ethylene glycol imports are expected to decline, and the domestic plant commissioning is putting continuous pressure on the ethylene glycol price. [2] Device Maintenance - A 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is currently restarting after shutting down around September 23, and another 1.1 - million - ton PTA plant has increased its load after operating at a low load last week. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is weak, and the PTA processing fee is compressed again. The supply - demand contradiction of over - supply has emerged due to factors such as the slowdown of China's import demand after the National Day, the increase in US exports, and the increase in Middle East exports. The macro and fundamentals resonate, putting pressure on the fundamentals without a clear rebound driver in the short term [1]. - For PX, the PXN is under pressure due to factors like the resumption of high - load operation in China, the restart of overseas devices, the postponement of the fourth - quarter maintenance plan, and the expansion of individual devices in the fourth quarter. The downstream PTA factory's production reduction and postponed new device production also affect the market sentiment, weakening the Q4 supply - demand outlook [1]. - For TA, the processing fee is repaired but suppressed. The accumulation of inventory is narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new device production, but the inventory accumulation pressure is large in December. The market supply is abundant, and the demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - For PF, the production profit has increased, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to be maintained [3]. - For PR, the processing fee has increased. The load remains stable, the inventory has increased due to holidays, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the new device production pressure. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side operations, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies. For cross - variety operations, it is recommended to buy PF processing fees at low prices. For cross - period operations, it is recommended to conduct reverse spreads for PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [4]. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 85 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 83 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 102 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 306 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 0 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PX processing fee PXN is 226 US dollars/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 1.75 US dollars/ton). The PXN is under pressure due to factors such as the resumption of high - load operation of PX in China, the restart of overseas devices, the postponed maintenance plan, and the expansion of individual devices in the fourth quarter [1]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits No specific data and in - depth analysis provided in the given text. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high - load operation. With the restart of several overseas devices, the overall PX start - up rate has increased. The PTA load is increasing from a low level, and there are more maintenance plans [1][2]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The accumulation of PTA inventory is narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new device production, but the inventory accumulation pressure is large in December. The market supply is abundant [2]. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.5% (with a month - on - month change of + 0.0%). The load of weaving and texturing increased in late September, and the orders improved marginally. After the National Day, the filament inventory started to accumulate again, and the terminal raw material procurement is expected to be mainly cautious [2]. PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 346 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 46 yuan/ton). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load is at a seasonal high, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of the raw material end [3]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 553 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 44 yuan/ton). The load remains stable, the inventory has increased due to holidays, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the new device production pressure. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The macro - risk is temporarily controllable, and the polyester industry chain rebounds after a decline. The US - China tariff war affects the market, causing crude oil to fall and then rebound. The PTA futures are affected by the crude oil price movement [2][3]. - The supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester industry chain varies. PX's fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook weakens; PTA has short - term improved fundamentals but long - term inventory accumulation pressure; PF has a short - term good supply - demand situation; and PR faces supply - demand pressure with new device production [3][4][5]. - The recommended strategies are to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on a unilateral basis, go long on PF processing fees at low prices in cross - variety trading, and conduct reverse arbitrage on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 in cross - period trading [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [11][12][14]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][24]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Cover the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Illustrate the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX in China and Asia [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipts of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][41]. Downstream Polyester Load - Show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, various factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][59]. PF Detailed Data - Provide information on PF's 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, and related indicators of regenerated cotton - type short - fibers, pure polyester yarns, and polyester - cotton yarns [70][72][80]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - to - month spreads [91][95][98].

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: Polyester Monthly Report - Ethylene Glycol Inventory Accumulation Gradually Realized, PX Continuously Suppressed by Downstream [1] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Views - PX: Last month, the overall industry contradiction was not obvious. PTA's processing fee was continuously restricted under weak expectations. High maintenance volume and weak terminal expectations led to the difficulty of PXN expansion, and it followed the weak oscillation of crude oil. Currently, PX load remains high, while downstream PTA has many short - term unexpected maintenance, with a low overall load center. The expected postponement of PTA new device production and PX maintenance is expected to continue the PX inventory accumulation cycle. PXN is under pressure, but the valuation is currently at a neutral - low level, and the downward space is also limited. Short - term observation is recommended [11]. - PTA: Last month, its own processing fee improved under continuous large - scale maintenance. However, due to the suppression of PXN by its maintenance and the still pessimistic expectation of the terminal, it mainly followed the downward oscillation of crude oil. In the future, the supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory reduction pattern continues. But due to the weak long - term pattern, the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester chemical fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, while the terminal shows signs of weakness. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously affected by the weak terminal performance, and PTA is continuously suppressed by unexpected maintenance under low processing fees. The upward valuation needs to be driven by continuous improvement of the terminal to further repair the PTA processing fee or the improvement of the PX supply - demand pattern. Short - term observation is recommended [12]. - MEG: Last month, after the news of new device production, with the expectation of subsequent import increase and port inventory accumulation, the valuation was compressed, and the disk oscillated weakly. In terms of industrial fundamentals, the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, the domestic supply is high, the import volume is increasing, and the port inventory is turning to accumulation. In the medium term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected continuous high domestic load, coupled with the gradual production of new devices, it is expected to continue inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high compared to the same period, and there is pressure for continuous compression under the weak pattern. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies [13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX: The price oscillated downward last month. As of October 9, the closing price of the 11 - contract was 6,586 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 224 yuan; the PX CFR price was 809 US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 29 US dollars. The end - of - month load in China was 87.4%, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the Asian load was 79.9%, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The PTA load at the end of the month was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The social inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 19,000 tons. It is expected to continue the inventory accumulation pattern in October. The PXN decreased by 11 US dollars last month [11]. - PTA: The price oscillated downward last month. As of October 9, the closing price of the 01 - contract was 4,584 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 148 yuan; the East China spot price was 4,500 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 120 yuan. The end - of - month load was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. As of September 26, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.107 million tons, a year - on - year inventory reduction of 13,000 tons. It is expected to continue inventory reduction in October. The spot processing fee increased by 32 yuan year - on - year [12]. - MEG: The price oscillated downward last month. As of October 9, the closing price of the 01 - contract was 4,158 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 173 yuan; the East China spot price was 4,224 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 190 yuan. The EG load at the end of the month was 75.1%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. As of October 9, the port inventory was 507,000 tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 48,000 tons. It is expected that the port inventory will enter the inventory accumulation cycle in October. The naphtha - based profit decreased by 66 yuan to - 645 yuan/ton [13]. 4.2 Futures and Spot Market - PX: The basis oscillated weakly, and the spread was weak. The position declined, and the trading volume was low [32][35]. - PTA: The basis was weak, and the spread weakened [44]. - MEG: The basis stabilized after a decline, and the spread oscillated weakly. The position was at a low level, and the trading volume decreased [59][66]. 4.3 PX Fundamentals - Capacity: In 2025, Yantai Yulongdao in China is expected to add 3 million tons of new capacity in the second half of the year [79]. - Supply: The end - of - month load in China was 87.4%, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the Asian load was 79.9%, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 379,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [11]. - Demand: The PTA load at the end of the month was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. It is expected to maintain a relatively high maintenance volume in October, and the load will be relatively stable [11]. - Inventory: The social inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 19,000 tons. It is expected to continue inventory accumulation in October [11]. - Cost - profit: PXN oscillated weakly, and the short - process profit declined. The gasoline performance in aromatics blending was neutral, the octane value showed certain characteristics, the US - South Korea aromatics spread strengthened, and the South Korea aromatics inventory and trade had corresponding changes [97][104]. 4.4 PTA Fundamentals - Capacity: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 are expected to add new capacities [128]. - Supply: The end - of - month load was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. It is expected to maintain a relatively high maintenance volume in October, and the load will be relatively stable [12]. - Demand: The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The terminal showed signs of weakness [12]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.107 million tons, a year - on - year inventory reduction of 13,000 tons. It is expected to continue inventory reduction in October [12]. - Profit - valuation: The processing fee improved slightly [138]. 4.5 MEG Fundamentals - Capacity: In 2025, Yulong Petrochemical 1 and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) are expected to add new capacities [142]. - Supply: The EG load at the end of the month was 75.1%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume in September was expected to be 600,000 tons, with the same year - on - year expectation. The short - term arrival volume increased, and the import volume in October was expected to increase [13]. - Demand: The polyester load at the end of the month was 91.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The terminal showed signs of weakness [13]. - Inventory: As of October 9, the port inventory was 507,000 tons, a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 48,000 tons. It is expected that the port inventory will enter the inventory accumulation cycle in October [13]. - Cost - profit: Coal prices rebounded slightly, ethylene prices declined, and the valuation was neutral - high [167][170]. 4.6 Polyester and Terminal - Polyester: New polyester filament devices were put into production. The basis of short fibers and bottle chips oscillated. The start - up rate remained high. The export data in August increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The filament inventory pressure was small, the short - fiber inventory declined, and the bottle - chip inventory pressure was relieved. The filament profit was low, while the bottle - chip and short - fiber profits improved [186][190][192]. - Terminal: The start - up rate was continuously weak year - on - year. Textile enterprise orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory preparation was weak. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing rebounded, while exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally [213][220][225].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost in the weak supply - demand situation, and the industry should continue the strategy of hedging on rallies in the fourth - quarter inventory accumulation pattern. MEG is expected to maintain a weak pattern, and the industry should continue the strategy of hedging at high levels [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Market Review**: In September, although oil prices rose and cost support was strong, PX downstream demand was sluggish, terminal inventory replenishment was cautious, and the new downstream device commissioning was postponed. The MX - PX spread remained high, and the PX absolute price declined. By September 30, the Asian PX closing price was $808.83/ton CFR China, a decrease of $39.84/ton or 4.69% from August 29 [15][17]. - **Maintenance and Restart**: In September, Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton unit and two units of Fuhai Chuang totaling 1.6 million tons restarted after maintenance, while Fujia Dahua's 1.4 million - ton unit was under maintenance. The PX operating rate in September was 89.51%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: By September 30, the PX - naphtha spread was $217.1/ton, a decrease of $34.21/ton from August 29. The high PX - MX spread led to high enterprise operating rates, but weak terminal demand and postponed new device commissioning reduced the PX - naphtha spread [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: In early September, with increasing crude oil production and weak upstream reality, combined with high PTA supply expectations and limited growth space for polyester demand, PTA prices declined. In the middle of the month, due to the Palestine - Israel conflict and improved Sino - US economic and trade relations, PTA prices recovered intermittently but then fell again. In late September, low processing fees and typhoon - affected device shutdowns in South China, along with weak crude oil, led to a decline in PTA prices. By September 30, the PTA spot price was 4,545 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 55 [24][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.78%, a month - on - month increase of 2.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.52%. In October, Ineos and Hengli have maintenance plans, and the monthly PTA output may increase significantly, but attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts in existing devices [30]. - **Processing Fees**: In September, the PTA monthly average processing fee was 156.94 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.65%. The reduction in the destocking range and lower - than - expected terminal performance limited the improvement of PTA benefits, even with PX price concessions [33]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In October, with insufficient PTA device maintenance and the restart of previously shut - down devices, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a loose balance [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: In September, although the cost side was stable to strong, concerns about future supply - demand inventory accumulation led to a significant decline in MEG prices. Despite the low port inventory and the mid - month inventory reaching a five - year low, the new production affected the futures market, resulting in a pattern of strong basis and weak prices. By September 30, the closing price of Zhangjiagang MEG was 4,275 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,410 yuan/ton [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was about 66.95%, with the non - coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate at about 66.85% and the coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate at about 67.1% [40]. - **Port Inventory**: As of October 9, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 443,100 tons, an increase of 88,000 tons or 24.8% from September 29. As of October 8, 2025, the expected total arrival volume of domestic MEG in East China was 203,000 tons [45]. - **Processing Profits**: By September 25, the naphtha - based MEG profit dropped to $129/ton, reaching the lowest level of the year, and the profits of other processes also declined to varying degrees due to weak prices, limited terminal order improvement, and new device commissioning [48]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Capacity Utilization**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% due to the restart of some devices and new device commissioning. In October, after successful destocking before the festival, the polyester monthly load is expected to remain stable, but there is a risk of a decline in the second half of October as autumn and winter orders are delivered [49][51]. - **Inventory**: Before the festival, aggressive promotions led to low inventory levels, but inventory increased after the festival as downstream textile manufacturers had holidays. The overall inventory of polyester products is currently in a relatively good state [56]. - **Cash Flow**: With the decline in polymerization costs, polyester product manufacturers offered promotions, compressing local cash flows [59]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of September 25, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.12%, a 0.93% increase from the previous period. The average terminal weaving order days were 15.42 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. Due to the National Day holiday and factors such as tariffs and new order supplements, the overall demand is lower than in previous years [64]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: In September, rising oil prices provided strong cost support, but weak PX downstream demand, cautious terminal inventory replenishment, and postponed new device commissioning led to a decline in the PX absolute price [66]. - **Supply Side**: In September, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.78%, and the domestic MEG capacity utilization rate was about 66.95% [67]. - **Demand Side**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 63.12%. However, overall demand is lower than in previous years due to various factors [67]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply - demand was in a tight balance before the festival and is expected to move towards a loose balance after the festival. As of October 9, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased by 24.8% from September 29 [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [4] Core View of the Report - Near the holiday, the polyester industry chain is oscillating. The cost - end oil price has rebounded, and geopolitical factors need to be continuously monitored. The supply - demand situation of PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken, and the support at the bottom has weakened. The near - end fundamentals of TA have improved, but there is still a large inventory accumulation pressure in December. The demand for polyester has improved marginally, but the high - level increase in polyester load is limited. The short - term supply - demand situation of PF is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee of PR is expected to oscillate in a range [1][2][4] Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Relevant charts include TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Relevant charts cover PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant charts involve toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Relevant charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant charts present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PX, PTA, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Relevant charts cover the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, factory inventory days of various filaments, and the operating rates of textile, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][61] Detailed PF Data - Relevant charts include the load of polyester staple fiber, inventory days, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the spread between raw and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [73][74][84] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Relevant charts involve the load of polyester bottle chips, factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profits, and inter - month spreads [94][96][103]

Group 1 - The PTA industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a notable demand for improved profitability as the average operating rate has dropped to 78% and the price spread has narrowed to under 100 yuan/ton [1] - The industry is highly concentrated, with six major players holding 74% of the capacity, facilitating discussions for potential joint production cuts to restore processing fees [1] - The PTA and polyester filament sectors are expected to enter a dual prosperity cycle, with the recent anti-involution efforts accelerating the industry's upward trend [1][2] Group 2 - By 2025, the PTA industry will see an addition of 870,000 tons of capacity from three new facilities, with the current cycle of new capacity expected to conclude after the commissioning of a 300,000-ton facility in October [2] - The growth rate of new capacity in the polyester filament sector is projected to be only around 3% in 2026, indicating limited supply growth [2] - The simultaneous supply turning point for PTA and polyester filament suggests a potential recovery for both sectors, supported by joint anti-involution measures [2] Group 3 - The largest chemical ETF (159870) opened with a 0.87% increase, with constituent stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical hitting the daily limit, and Tongkun and Xin Fengming rising by 6.86% and over 7% respectively [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA device returns gradually, increasing PTA output and causing the PTA basis to decline rapidly. OPEC+ raises oil production, leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices and a contraction in the spread between PX and naphtha. With weakening sales and rising inventory, especially as the off - season approaches, PTA shows weak performance due to falling crude oil prices and a weakening basis [2] - Ethylene glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China continues to decline, and it is expected to continue to deplete. Although the import of ethylene glycol in the overseas market is expected to decline, domestic device production puts continuous pressure on the ethylene glycol price. Coal - based ethylene glycol devices are also returning. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is rising [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Changes - **Crude oil and PTA - related**: INE crude oil price dropped from 483.0 yuan/barrel on September 22, 2025, to 473.1 yuan/barrel on September 23, 2025, a decrease of 9.90 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased by 9.90 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased by 41.94, and the PTA - SC ratio coefficient increased by 0.0186. CFR China PX decreased by 5, PX - naphtha spread decreased by 4. PTA main contract futures price decreased by 30.0 yuan/ton, PTA spot price decreased by 40.0 yuan/ton, spot processing fee decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, and disk processing fee decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton [2] - **Ethylene glycol - related**: MEG main contract futures price decreased by 28.0 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha decreased by 4.2 yuan/ton, MEG domestic price decreased by 47.0 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis decreased by 17.0 [2] - **Polyester product - related**: POY150D/48F increased by 20.0 yuan/ton, POY cash flow increased by 70.0. FDY150D/96F remained unchanged, FDY cash flow increased by 50.0. DTY150D/48F remained unchanged, DTY cash flow increased by 50.0. Long - filament sales decreased by 19%. 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber decreased by 6549 yuan/ton, polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased by 6499.0, and staple - fiber sales remained at 48%. Semi - bright chips decreased by 50.0 yuan/ton, chip cash flow remained unchanged, and chip sales decreased by 6% [2] 2. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 85.57%, PTA start - up rate increased from 76.82% to 79.38%, an increase of 2.56%. MEG start - up rate increased from 62.20% to 62.62%, an increase of 0.42%. Polyester load remained at 89.00% [2] 3. Device Maintenance - Two sets of PTA devices in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, it gives a neutral rating with a mid - term cautious and bearish outlook for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4]. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly during the peak season. The cost - end oil price is fluctuating, and the PX supply is increasing while the demand is weakening. PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the demand side of the polyester industry has limited improvement and high inventory [1][2][4]. - The demand for PF has slightly improved, and short - term supply and demand conditions are better than the raw material side, but its upward momentum is weak. The processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 79 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 5 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 159 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of - 12 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 304 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of - 12 yuan/ton) [2]. - Relevant figures include TA main - contract & basis & inter - period spread trend, PX main - contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is 212 dollars/ton (with a环比 change of - 6.88 dollars/ton). Relevant figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [1][18][21]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and overseas start - up will further increase in the short term. China's PTA load is rising from a low level. Relevant figures show the load of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the load of PX in China and Asia [1][29][36]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [2][37][41]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (with a环比 change of - 0.2%), and it is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in September. Relevant figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [2][49][65]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 230 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 21 yuan/ton), and the load is slightly increasing. Relevant figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [3][76][89]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 497 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 23 yuan/ton). Relevant figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [3][91][104]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR, and cautiously bearish in the medium term [4]. - Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fee at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [5]. - Cross - period: None [5].