1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The strong PX market leads the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds flow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, with polyester leading the entire chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and existing domestic PTA plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester. Indian PTA is operating at full capacity, and a new project has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand. Some domestic PX plants are under maintenance, and the PX - naphtha spread continues to expand, prompting refineries to focus on aromatics extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the reduction of polyester factories has a limited negative impact on PTA [2] - Ethylene glycol: After a long - term slump, the price of overseas ethylene glycol has rebounded. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East boosts market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch to polyethylene production on one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines in mid - February due to profit considerations. The supply contraction creates room for price increases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: The price on January 28, 2026, was 460.3 yuan/barrel, and on January 29, 2026, it was 472.5 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 12.20 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA - SC**: The value on January 28, 2026, was 2025.0 yuan/ton, and on January 29, 2026, it was 1898.3 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 126.66 yuan/ton [2] - **PTA/SC Ratio**: It was 1.6054 on January 28, 2026, and 1.5528 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 0.0525 [2] - **CFR China PX**: The price was 924 on January 28, 2026, and 921 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 3 [2] - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It was 356 on January 28, 2026, and 337 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 19 [2] - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It was 5370 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 5332 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 38.0 yuan/ton [2] - **PTA Spot Price**: It was 5235 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 5245 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Processing Fee**: It was 369.1 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 413.7 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 44.7 yuan/ton [2] - **Disk Processing Fee**: It was 504.1 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 480.7 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 23.3 yuan/ton [2] - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It was 3970 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 3957 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 13.0 yuan/ton [2] - **MEG - Naphtha**: It was (159.45) yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and (158.64) yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 0.8 [2] - **MEG Inner - Market Price**: It was 3832 on January 28, 2026, and 3829 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: It remained at 85.82% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **PTA Operating Rate**: It remained at 75.63% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **MEG Operating Rate**: It increased from 60.17% on January 28, 2026, to 60.66% on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 0.49% [2] - **Polyester Load**: It decreased from 81.96% on January 28, 2026, to 81.05% on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 0.91% [2] 3.3 Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: The price was 7055 on January 28, 2026, and 7030 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 25.0 [2] - **POY Cash Flow**: It decreased from 44 on January 28, 2026, to 13 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 31.0 [2] - **FDY150D/96F**: The price remained at 7220 from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **FDY Cash Flow**: It decreased from (291) on January 28, 2026, to (297) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] - **DTY150D/48F**: The price remained at 8110 from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **DTY Cash Flow**: It decreased from (101) on January 28, 2026, to (107) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price was 6705 on January 28, 2026, and 6700 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 5 [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: It decreased from 44 on January 28, 2026, to 33 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 11.0 [2] - **Semi - Bright Chip**: The price was 6010 on January 28, 2026, and 6000 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 10.0 [2] - **Chip Cash Flow**: It decreased from (101) on January 28, 2026, to (117) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 16.0 [2] 3.4 Product Sales Ratios - **Long - Fiber Sales Ratio**: It remained at 30% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **Short - Fiber Sales Ratio**: It remained at 59% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **Chip Sales Ratio**: It decreased from 70% on January 28, 2026, to 62% on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 8% [2] 3.5 Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th [2] - A South China 1.25 - million - ton PIA plant is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX market strongly leads the rise of chemical products, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cyclical reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, and polyester leads the entire chemical sector [2] - Domestic PTA production continues to grow. With no new PTA capacity in the country, existing plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester; India's PTA runs at full capacity, and the new project GMPL has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand [2] - Two domestic PX plants are still under maintenance, and the shutdown of some reforming units in Zhejiang Petrochemical restricts aromatic raw materials. There are also planned shutdowns in the Middle East; South Korean plants have the intention to increase load or restart, and the current PX - mixed xylene spread is maintained at about $150 [2] - The PX - naphtha spread continues to expand, significantly higher than the gasoline blending profit, prompting refineries to continuously favor aromatic extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high开工, domestic demand declines, and the production cuts of polyester factories have limited negative feedback on PTA, with bottle - chip profits expanding and short - fiber profits declining [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 5235 to 5245, a change of 10 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3835 to 3829, a change of - 6 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 5370 to 5332, a change of - 38 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3970 to 3957, a change of - 13 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6705 to 6700, a change of - 5 [2] - Short - fiber basis decreased from - 4 to - 18, a change of - 14 [2] - 3 - 4 spread decreased from - 48 to - 56, a change of - 8 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5300 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1405 to 1400, a change of - 5 [2] - East China water - bottle chip price increased from 6343 to 6351, a change of 8 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6343 to 6351, a change of 8 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6443 to 6451, a change of 8 [2] - Outer - market water - bottle chip price remained unchanged at 845 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 582 to 584, a change of 1 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10700 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3995 to 4000, a change of 5 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16800 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15735 to 15880, a change of 145 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1407 to 1355, a change of - 51 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7300 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 339 to 333, a change of - 7 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7895 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures contract rose 32 to 6720. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were mainly stable, and the prices of traders fluctuated slightly with the futures price. Downstream demand was weak, and there was not much trading in the market [2] - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6380 - 6430 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated slightly, the cost - side support was average, most supply - side offers were stable, the market spot supply was tight, downstream terminal demand was mainly for rigid restocking, and the market negotiation focus rose slightly [2] Operating Rate and Production and Sales - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 88.84% to 86.77%, a change of - 2.07% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 60.00% to 55.00%, a change of - 5.00% [3] - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market strongly leads the rise of chemical products, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cyclical reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, and polyester leads the entire chemical sector [2]. - Domestic PTA production continues to grow. With no new PTA production capacity in the country, existing plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester. India's PTA runs at full capacity, and the new project GMPL has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand [2]. - Two domestic PX plants are still under maintenance, and the shutdown of some reforming plants of Zhejiang Petrochemical restricts aromatic raw materials. There is also a planned shutdown in the Middle East. Although Korean plants have the intention to increase load or restart, the current PX - mixed xylene spread remains at around $150 [2]. - The PX - naphtha spread continues to expand, significantly higher than the gasoline blending income, prompting refineries to continuously favor aromatic extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high operation, domestic demand declines, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a limited negative feedback on PTA. Bottle chip profits expand, while short - fiber profits decline [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price decreased from 5350 to 5225 (- 125); MEG domestic price decreased from 3887 to 3843 (- 44); PTA closing price decreased from 5438 to 5258 (- 180); MEG closing price decreased from 3994 to 3938 (- 56) [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6755 to 6735 (- 20); short - fiber basis increased from - 57 to - 31 (26); 3 - 4 spread increased from - 50 to - 46 (4) [2]. - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price down 170 yuan/ton. The prices of East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips all decreased by 176, and the outer - market water bottle chips decreased from 850 to 845 (- 5) [2]. Cost and Profit Indicators - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246 (6); bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 592 to 537 (- 54); T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3945 to 3965 (20) [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1440 to 1462 (23); 6 - 15D hollow staple fiber cash flow increased from 224 to 345 (122) [2]. Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84% (2.07%); polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 57.00% to 68.00% (11.00%) [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32% (0.32%); recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81% (- 0.63%) [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - PX market's strength leads the rise of chemical products, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, and polyester leads the entire chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and existing plants need to maintain high loads to match the polyester growth. Indian PTA is operating at full capacity, and a new project has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand. Some PX plants in China are under maintenance, and there are planned shutdowns in the Middle East. The PX - mixed xylene spread remains at about $150, and the PX - naphtha spread continues to widen, prompting refineries to favor aromatics extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand declines, the production cut of polyester factories has limited negative feedback on PTA, bottle - chip profits expand, and short - fiber profits decline [2]. Group 3: Data Summary Price and Price Difference - PTA spot price rose from 5155 to 5285, an increase of 130; MEG domestic price rose from 3660 to 3798, an increase of 138; PTA closing price rose from 5298 to 5448, an increase of 150; MEG closing price rose from 3847 to 3997, an increase of 150; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price rose from 6570 to 6675, an increase of 105; short - fiber basis increased from 10 to 12, an increase of 2; 3 - 4 spread decreased from 48 to 50, a decrease of 2; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1320 to 1425, an increase of 105; East China water - bottle chip price rose from 6222 to 6391, an increase of 169; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price rose from 6222 to 6391, an increase of 169; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price rose from 6322 to 6491, an increase of 169; outer - market water - bottle chip price rose from 825 to 840, an increase of 15; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 588 to 600, an increase of 12; T32S pure - polyester yarn price rose from 10550 to 10600, an increase of 50; T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3980 to 3925, a decrease of 55; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price rose from 16700 to 16750, an increase of 50; cotton 328 price rose from 15520 to 15630, an increase of 110; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1478 to 1416, a decrease of 61; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price rose from 7150 to 7300, an increase of 150; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price rose from 7760 to 7895, an increase of 135 [2]. Production and Sales, Operating Rate - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, an increase of 2.07%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 118.00% to 83.00%, a decrease of 35.00%; polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, an increase of 0.32%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a decrease of 0.63% [2][3]. Cash Flow - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 316 to 309, a decrease of 7 [2].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及问第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D'AVA -- PTA: PX市场强势引领化工品上涨,化工板块资金大幅 流入。在"周期反转"叙事推动下,市场大幅增持化 工品配置,聚酯领涨整个化工板块。国内PTA产量持续 增长,国内无新增PTA产能,现有装置需要维持高负荷 以匹配聚酯增长;印度PTA满产运行,新项目GMPL已采 购PX用于调试,进一步推升区域需求。国内两套PX装 料,中东亦有计划性停产;韩国装置虽有提负或重启 意向,当前PX-混合二甲苯价差维持约150美元。PX-石 脑油价差继续扩张,显著高于汽油调合收益,促使炼 厂持续倾向芳烃 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：趋势仍偏强 | 供应 | PX国产装置变化不大，浙石化装置降负荷，1成左右预计2-3周时间，福佳大化12月扩能30万吨，总体开工率88.9%（-0.5%）。海外装置方 面，韩国GS55万吨装置重启、台塑装置负荷提升，科威特82万吨装置检修。亚洲装置开工率80.6%（-0.4%）。 进口方面，内外价差再次打开，一季度进口单月提升至90万吨左右。PX进入累库格局。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | PTA加工费修复，本周PTA装置开工率维持在76.9%。本周逸盛新材料360万吨和英力士125万吨装置兑现检修计划，独山能源300万吨装置 1.14附近重启，其250万吨装置计划本月底前停车，能投100万吨装置计划1月20日附近重启。 | | 观点 | 节前单边趋势偏强。3-5反套，5-9正 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PTA: The PX market remains strong, and the strength of the chemical sector boosts PTA prices. The downstream PTA and polyester demand fundamentals are robust. The PX price is supported by the significant repair of the PTA industry profit, and the PTA processing fee has rebounded to 300 yuan. The net profit of PX raw materials is higher than the gasoline blending income, which encourages capacity release. Domestic PTA production continues to rise, but the early maintenance of mainstream polyester plants and the sale of PTA raw materials have led to a rapid weakening of the basis [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The number of overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance plans has increased. The ethylene glycol inventory at East China ports remains at around 700,000 tons. Coal prices have started to stabilize, and ethylene glycol prices are seeking effective support. With the successive commissioning of new plants, the market supply pressure continues to increase [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price rose from 440.8 yuan/barrel on January 21, 2026, to 446.4 yuan/barrel on January 22, 2026, an increase of 5.6 yuan [2]. - PTA-SC spread rose from 1950.7 yuan on January 21 to 2054.0 yuan on January 22, an increase of 103.3 yuan [2]. - PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.6089 on January 21 to 1.6332 on January 22, an increase of 0.0242 [2]. - CFR China PX price rose from 888 on January 21 to 907 on January 22, an increase of 19 [2]. - PX-naphtha spread rose from 339 on January 21 to 349 on January 22, an increase of 10 [2]. - PTA main contract futures price rose from 5154 yuan/ton on January 21 to 5298 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 144 yuan [2]. - PTA spot price rose from 5085 yuan/ton on January 21 to 5155 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 70 yuan [2]. - PTA spot processing fee decreased from 381.3 yuan/ton on January 21 to 360.5 yuan/ton on January 22, a decrease of 20.8 yuan [2]. - PTA futures processing fee rose from 460.3 yuan/ton on January 21 to 503.5 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 43.2 yuan [2]. - PTA main contract basis decreased from -70 on January 21 to -71 on January 22, a decrease of 1 [2]. - PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 104,302 on January 21 to 102,280 on January 22, a decrease of 2022 [2]. - MEG main contract futures price rose from 3689 yuan/ton on January 21 to 3847 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 158 yuan [2]. - MEG-naphtha spread increased from -174.39 yuan/ton on January 21 to -153.58 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 20.8 yuan [2]. - MEG domestic price rose from 3570 yuan/ton on January 21 to 3660 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 90 yuan [2]. - MEG main contract basis increased from -120 on January 21 to -113 on January 22, an increase of 7 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX operating rate remained at 85.82% on January 21 and January 22 [2]. - PTA operating rate remained at 75.63% on January 21 and January 22 [2]. - MEG operating rate remained at 60.49% on January 21 and January 22 [2]. - Polyester load decreased from 84.69% on January 21 to 84.40% on January 22, a decrease of 0.29% [2]. Product Data of Polyester Filament - POY150D/48F price rose from 6690 yuan/ton on January 21 to 6740 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 50 yuan [2]. - POY cash flow decreased from -104 yuan/ton on January 21 to -144 yuan/ton on January 22, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - FDY150D/96F price rose from 6930 yuan/ton on January 21 to 6955 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 25 yuan [2]. - FDY cash flow decreased from -364 yuan/ton on January 21 to -429 yuan/ton on January 22, a decrease of 65 yuan [2]. - DTY150D/48F price rose from 7880 yuan/ton on January 21 to 7910 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 30 yuan [2]. - DTY cash flow decreased from -114 yuan/ton on January 21 to -174 yuan/ton on January 22, a decrease of 60 yuan [2]. - Filament sales rate increased from 49% on January 21 to 71% on January 22, an increase of 22% [2]. Product Data of Polyester Staple Fiber - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price rose from 6465 yuan/ton on January 21 to 6570 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 105 yuan [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 21 yuan/ton on January 21 to 36 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. - Staple fiber sales rate increased from 74% on January 21 to 131% on January 22, an increase of 57% [2]. Product Data of Polyester Chips - Semi-gloss chip price rose from 5790 yuan/ton on January 21 to 5840 yuan/ton on January 22, an increase of 50 yuan [2]. - Chip cash flow decreased from -104 yuan/ton on January 21 to -144 yuan/ton on January 22, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - Chip sales rate increased from 87% on January 21 to 193% on January 22, an increase of 106% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 3.6 million-ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned tomorrow [2]. - A 1.25 million-ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down in the next two days and is initially expected to restart in early March [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is optimistic about the medium - term supply - demand pattern of PTA, weakening the impact of short - term polyester production cuts, leading to a rise in PTA prices. However, the maintenance of a 750,000 - ton polyester plant has a negative impact on the PTA spot basis [2]. - The PX market remains strong, driven by speculative funds and improved production economics. Korean factories plan to increase production in January but are limited by some reformer maintenance. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, but the decline in domestic demand and polyester factory production cuts have a negative feedback on PTA [2]. - Overseas MEG plant maintenance plans are increasing, but with the continuous decline of coal prices and the increase in new plant production, the MEG price lacks effective support. However, it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price dropped from 437.4 yuan/barrel on January 19, 2026, to 437.0 yuan/barrel on January 20, 2026, a decrease of 0.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price increased from 1851.4 yuan/ton to 1968.3 yuan/ton, a rise of 116.91 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.5824 to 1.6198, an increase of 0.0373 [2]. - **PTA**: The main - contract futures price increased from 5030 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, a rise of 114.0 yuan/ton; the spot - market processing margin increased from 321.4 yuan/ton to 324.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.0 yuan/ton; the on - paper processing margin increased from 381.4 yuan/ton to 498.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 117.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The main - contract futures price dropped from 3755 yuan/ton to 3674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.0 yuan/ton; the main - contract basis increased from - 120 to - 113, a rise of 7.0 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained at 85.82% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained at 75.63% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Dropped from 60.58% to 60.49%, a decrease of 0.09% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Dropped from 85.83% to 84.69%, a decrease of 1.14% [2]. 3.3 Product Sales Conditions - **Polyester Filament**: The sales rate of POY, FDY, and DTY remained at 0.0% in price change; the sales rate of polyester filament decreased from 50% to 46%, a decrease of 4% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber remained unchanged; the sales rate increased from 57% to 92%, a rise of 35% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright polyester chips remained unchanged; the sales rate increased from 84% to 174%, a rise of 90% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to start planned maintenance tomorrow. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down in the next two days and is initially expected to restart in early March [2].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Polyester leading stocks' rise drives PX and PTA prices up. Before the Spring Festival, the downside price space is limited, but there is pressure after the festival. Future PX supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually. Consider long - PX short - PTA and long - MX short - PX hedges [8]. - PTA: Polyester leading stocks' rise leads to PTA price rebound. Focus on reducing processing fees. Future supply and demand are both weak, and it turns into a stock - building pattern [9]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market with limited downside space. Pay attention to basis and 5 - 9 calendar spreads. Supply pressure is still large, but considering basis, calendar spreads, and potential spring maintenance, the downside is restricted [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - **Futures Prices**: PX主力昨日收盘价7232元，涨126元，涨幅1.77%；PTA主力昨日收盘价5144元，涨114元，涨幅2.27%；MEG主力昨日收盘价3674元，跌81元，跌幅2.16%；PF主力昨日收盘价6494元，涨96元，涨幅1.50%；SC主力昨日收盘价437元，跌0.4元，跌幅0.09% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR中国昨日价格888美元/吨，较前日涨9美元；PTA华东昨日价格5010元/吨，较前日涨38元；MEG现货昨日价格3595元/吨，较前日跌43元；石脑油MOPJ昨日价格549美元/吨，较前日涨0.5美元；Dated布伦特昨日价格68美元/桶，较前日涨0.69美元 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格330.5美元/吨，较前日涨4.42美元；PTA加工费昨日价格309.31元/吨，较前日跌70.31元；短纤加工费昨日价格120.64元/吨，较前日跌21.37元；瓶片加工费昨日价格149.42元/吨，较前日涨47.24元；MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34美元/吨，与前日持平 [2]. Fundamental Information - **PX**: On January 20, PX prices rose. The estimated price of MOPJ in February is 546 dollars/ton CFR. Three Asian spot transactions in March were all at 887. The estimated PX price on January 20 was 888 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars from January 19. The domestic PX plant operating rate increased to 89.6% (+1.3%), and only Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance. Some overseas PX plants plan to restart or are under maintenance, and the overseas import in December is expected to be over 950,000 tons [3][8]. - **PTA**: The PTA plant operating rate is maintained at about 76.9%. The Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton PTA plant is under maintenance. Polyester production reduction plans increase, and the operating rate drops rapidly this week [8][9]. - **MEG**: From January 19 to January 25, the planned arrival quantity at major ports is about 205,000 tons. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is 74.4%, and the coal - based operating rate is 80.2% (+1.6%). Some plants adjust their loads, and some are under maintenance. Polyester filament manufacturers increase maintenance efforts, and the polyester load in February is expected to drop to 82 - 83% [6][10]. - **Polyester**: A 400,000 - ton polyester plant in Shaoxing and a 500,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo are under planned maintenance and will restart in early March. A 50,000 - ton polyester plant in Shaoxing restarted on January 20. On January 20, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 102%. The sales - to - production ratio of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filaments was weak, with an estimated average of 40 - 50% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [7]

Report Summary 1. Overall Investment Outlook - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest product in the polyester industry chain [15] 2. Core Views - PX: After a negative feedback cycle, PX processing fees have reached a reasonable level, and the pressure on short - selling has eased. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 positive spread and the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3] - PTA: It is expected to enter a pattern of declining demand. The downside space for the unilateral price is limited, and attention should be paid to the position of narrowing the processing fees [4] - MEG: In the medium - term, it will be in a volatile market with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the basis and spread increasing [5] 3. Summary by Product PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The PXN spread is at $326/ton (-$18), and the PX - MX spread is $145/ton. The internal - external spread arbitrage space has narrowed, and the 3 - 5 spread has rebounded from the bottom [3][23] - The gasoline inventory has been rising, the aromatics blending oil demand is weak, and the aromatics blending oil economy has declined [32][41] - **Supply and Inventory** - Domestic PX production is at a high level, with an operating rate of 89.4% (-1.5%). Overseas, the Asian overall load is 80.6% (-0.6%). The import volume in the first quarter is expected to increase [3][63] - In December, the PX inventory was 445 million tons (+6) [90] PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The basis and spread have been declining. The PTA processing fee has increased, with the 05 - contract processing fee at 335 yuan/ton (+20) and the spot processing fee at 378 yuan/ton (+59) [96][104] - **Supply and Inventory** - The PTA operating rate is 76.9% (-1.1%). In November, the PTA export was 360,000 tons, with significant increases in Egypt, Oman, and India [108][112] - The total inventory is at a low level, but the inventory accumulation in February is expected to be significant [127] MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral price has rebounded from the bottom, but the spread structure is still weak. The relative valuation has been decreasing [150][155] - The coal - based device profit is - 295 yuan/ton (-34), and the oil - based device continues to be in a loss situation [157] - **Supply and Inventory** - The MEG operating rate is 74.4%. The coal - based load is at a high level, and the import volume in 1 - 2 months is expected to decrease [5][160] - The port inventory is at a high level [172] Polyester - **Production and Inventory** - The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (-2%). The inventory has increased slightly, but the pressure is not significant [179][187] - **Export and Profit** - From January to November, the total polyester export was 13.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The long - filament factory's loss has been repaired, and the profits of short - fiber and bottle - chip are acceptable [191][193] Terminal (Weaving and Textile) - **Domestic Market** - The domestic textile and clothing retail sales from January to November were 1359.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [223] - The weaving industry has a poor new order atmosphere, but there are sporadic improvements in some markets. The domestic demand orders are weakening, and the raw material inventory is increasing [215][219] - **Overseas Market** - The overseas textile and clothing retail data in the US and Europe are strongly rising. The US clothing and fabric inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [233][239]