总体看12月PTA或去库，春节前后季节性累库，随后随着春检的进行以及需求的恢复PTA有望连续去 库。绝对价格运行跟随成本，配置上跟随成本偏多配置。后期PTA加工差或有回升预期。 华联期货： 近期装置变动不大，PTA装置按计划检修且整体检修力度较大（虹港石化检修、逸盛宁波停车检修5 周、逸盛大连、逸盛海南装置停车中，英力士、四川能投、独山能源1#检修中）。 机构观点 一德期货： 消息面 12月16日，PTA产能利用率较15日持平至73.81%；聚酯产能利用率86.64%，较15日持平。 12月16日，郑商所PTA期货仓单录得136697张，较上一交易日下降1296张；最近一周，PTA期货仓单累 计增长11138张，增长幅度为8.87%；最近一个月，PTA期货仓单累计增长25001张，增长幅度为 22.38%。 成本端布油下探近五年低点，距离今年二季度的低点一步之遥位，为聚酯产业链带来压力。当前PX利 润良好，开工处于高位，延续偏紧格局。PTA加工费走强，开工率预计提升；下游聚酯偏弱。终端进入 淡季，库存压力上升。PTA预计累库。操作方面，油价压力较大，TA预料震荡偏弱，2605合约参考压 力位4750-4850 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PX market has limited upside potential. Although the supply is tight before the holiday, the demand is weakening, and the polyester start - up decline may bring negative feedback. The PXN is expanding, but the valuation support from the blending oil logic is weakening [3]. - The PTA market also has limited upside potential. The cost - end PX supply is tight, but the polyester industry is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, which may lead to a negative feedback in the industrial chain. The PTA processing fee is continuously compressed [5]. - For MEG, it is at a low - valuation level, and short - selling is not recommended. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and it is advisable to operate in the range [8]. 3. Summary by Directory PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The PX futures forward curve shows a forward decline, and attention should be paid to the 01 - contract warehouse receipt pressure. The supply is tight, the near - end is strengthening, and the PXN is rising. The gasoline cracking spread is falling, which is negative for the blending oil market. The aromatics blending oil economy is weakening [20][26][31]. - The PX - MX spread has soared, and the Asian MX blending oil economy has significantly declined, while the overseas MX isomerization economy has increased [47][49]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The domestic PX start - up rate is at a historical high, with a weekly output of 740,000 tons. The Asian start - up rate is 78.6% (- 0.1%). There are expectations of supply contraction in the future, such as the Zhejiang Petrochemical's CDU maintenance in January [61]. - In October, the PX import volume was 830,000 tons. The import from South Korea has increased, while that from Saudi Arabia has been low [63][65]. - In November, the PX monthly inventory in Longzhong accumulated 50,000 tons to 4.07 million tons [84]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The PTA basis and monthly spread have rebounded at a low level driven by raw materials, but the spot supply is still in surplus. The processing fee has been at a low level for a long time [90][100]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The PTA start - up rate remains at 73.7%, with a weekly output of about 1.44 million tons. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative PTA output was 60.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [101][102]. - In October, the PTA export volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory holding willingness is low, and the warehouse receipt volume is continuously increasing [104][120]. MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The MEG monthly spread has declined, the basis has weakened, and the unilateral price has reached a new low. The relative valuation has been continuously decreasing, and the profit of various production processes is in a loss state [133][137][140]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The MEG start - up rate is 70% (- 3%), and the weekly domestic supply is about 400,000 tons. Many coal - chemical and ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads due to low profits [141][142]. - In October, the MEG import volume was 650,000 tons, and in November, it was over 720,000 tons. The overseas inventory is high, and the arrival volume remains at a high level, leading to a continuous increase in port inventory [143][152]. Polyester Segment - **Start - up** - The polyester start - up rate is 91.2% (- 0.6%), maintaining a high level. The start - up rate is expected to be 91% in December, 89% in January, and 84% in February [156][159]. - **Inventory** - The downstream sales are sluggish seasonally, and the inventory has begun to rise. The filament (POY/FDY) equity inventory is about half a month, the short - fiber inventory is at a low level both this year and in the same period of history, and the bottle - chip inventory has slightly increased [166][172]. - **Export** - From January to October, the total polyester export volume was 12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The export of various polyester products has also increased to different extents [173][176]. - **Profit** - The texturing profit is acceptable, but the FDY loss has expanded, and the POY is at the break - even point, which may affect the filament start - up enthusiasm [177]. Terminal (Weaving and Apparel) - **Demand and Start - up** - The overall demand is weakening. The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 67% (- 2%), and the start - up rate of texturing machines is 83% (- 2%) [198]. - **Inventory and Sales** - The domestic demand orders have declined month - on - month, and the de - stocking speed of grey fabric inventory has slowed down. The new order atmosphere is weak, the shipment situation has deteriorated, and the fabric price has declined locally [201][202]. - **Retail and Export** - From January to October, the retail sales of Chinese clothing, footwear, and textiles were 106.127 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative export from January to October was 126.2 billion US dollars, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [203][209]. - Overseas, the clothing retail data in the US and Europe have risen strongly, while the overseas textile and clothing inventory has slightly declined month - on - month [213][219].

Report Title - Polyester Weekly Report (2025/12/13) [1] Report Core Viewpoints - PX: Currently at a neutral valuation level, with expectations of slight inventory accumulation in December. Consider opportunistic long positions on dips [11]. - PTA: In the short - term, it is in a de - stocking phase, but the upside is limited. As the approach to January nears, processing fees may face pressure. Look for opportunistic long positions based on expectations [12]. - MEG: The port inventory accumulation cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. Be wary of potential price rebounds due to increased unexpected maintenance [13]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: Price showed a weakening trend last week, with a decline in futures and spot prices. Supply side: China's load decreased, and overseas plants had some adjustments. Demand side: PTA load remained flat. Inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in December. Valuation is at a neutral level, and it is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities on dips [11]. - **PTA**: Prices also weakened last week. Supply side: Load remained unchanged, and maintenance volume stayed at a high level. Demand side: Polyester load declined slightly. Inventory is expected to continue decreasing. Processing fees are expected to face pressure later, and consider long - entry opportunities based on expectations [12]. - **MEG**: Prices dropped significantly last week. Supply side: Load decreased, and unexpected maintenance increased. Demand side: Polyester load declined. Inventory is expected to continue accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and be cautious of price rebounds caused by increased maintenance [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **PX**: Basis fluctuated, and monthly spreads strengthened. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [31][34]. - **PTA**: Basis and 1 - 5 spreads showed certain changes. Trading volume and open interest data are provided [43][45]. - **MEG**: Basis weakened, and monthly spreads were weak. Trading volume and open interest data are available [55][62]. 3. PX Fundamentals - **Supply**: Capacity has increased in some years, and the current load is at a high level [76][79]. - **Import**: Import volume decreased slightly in October [83]. - **Inventory**: Slight inventory accumulation in October [85]. - **Cost - profit**: PXN decreased slightly, short - process spreads widened, and naphtha spreads were strong. Aromatic - blending oil data showed a weakening trend [89][96]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity has been added in recent years, and the current load is relatively low. Export data is also presented [132][135]. - **Inventory**: End - of - period inventory and other inventory - related data are provided [139]. - **Profit - valuation**: Processing fees are at a low level [141]. 5. MEG Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity has been added, and the current load has decreased. Import data from different regions is shown [145][148]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory has been accumulating, and both upstream and downstream factory inventories are relatively high [157]. - **Cost**: Coal prices fluctuated weakly, ethylene prices stopped falling and rebounded, and US ethane prices weakened [168]. - **Profit**: Naphtha - based MEG profit dropped to a yearly low, and coal - based profit was significantly compressed [171]. 6. Polyester and End - users - **Polyester**: New production capacity has been put into operation. Basis: Staple fiber basis is strong, and bottle - chip basis fluctuates. Supply: Operating rate started to decline. Inventory: Filament inventory is at a low level. Profit: Filament profit weakened [185][188][191]. - **End - users**: Operating rate decreased and is lower compared to the same period last year. Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw - material inventory decreased. Spinning and clothing domestic demand growth recovered, while exports were weak [212][219][223].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, TA, EG, PF, and PR in the polyester industry chain are all expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, device maintenance, and raw material prices [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX**: Supply has increased with some domestic devices resuming load and an overseas device shutting down for maintenance. PTA demand has declined, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter and a de - stocking expectation in the second quarter. The short - term price is expected to be volatile. Trading strategies include a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - **TA**: PTA supply is abundant with some devices planning to restart, and demand in the polyester industry is weak in the off - season. The inventory accumulation pattern persists, and the price is expected to be volatile. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position, a monthly - difference positive arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - **EG**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, demand in the polyester industry is weak in the off - season, and there is a large resistance to price increases. Trading strategies include a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - **PF**: The supply - demand situation of short - fiber is weak, and the price follows the raw material end to show a volatile trend. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [3] - **PR**: The supply of polyester bottle - chips is becoming more relaxed, demand is weak in the off - season, and the price follows the raw material end to show a volatile trend. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **PX**: Supply is relatively loose before the maintenance. The price is supported by the upward trend of crude oil, and the decline space is limited. The price fluctuation is mainly affected by raw materials [5][7] - **PTA**: The load has decreased, supply is abundant, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The processing fee has weakened, and the valuation is low [9][11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply remains at a high level, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The basis has strengthened, the coal - making profit has expanded, and the oil - making loss has expanded [13][15] - **Polyester**: The load has weakened, and terminal demand has weakened seasonally. The profit of polyester filament has increased slightly, the production and sales have improved, and the inventory has decreased. The profit of short - fiber has shrunk, the load has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The profit of polyester bottle - chips is supported by the increase in raw materials, but the supply is expected to be more relaxed [20][22][24] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **PX**: Data on price, spread, profit, and supply - demand are presented, including the price trends of Asian PX and naphtha, various spread and profit indicators, and the PX start - up rate in China and Asia [27][32][43] - **PTA**: Data on price, spread, profit, supply - demand, and inventory are provided, such as the PTA spot price, various spread and profit indicators, the PTA start - up rate, and the PTA social inventory [48][51][68][71] - **MEG**: Data on price, spread, profit, and supply - demand are shown, including the MEG spot price, various spread and profit indicators, the MEG start - up rate, and the MEG port inventory [78][86][101][107] - **Polyester**: Data on profit, supply, and demand are presented, including the profit of polyester products, the start - up rate, inventory, and terminal demand indicators such as the开机率 of weaving and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [109][113][119]

乙二醇延续弱基本面走势， PXN强预期下支撑向上 聚酯月报 2025/12/05 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结——PX ◆ 行情回顾：上月价格震荡上涨，截至12月4日，01合约收盘价6870元，月同比上涨90元；PX CFR价格845美元，同比上涨19美元。基差和价差 方面，截至12月4日，折算基差-17元，月同比下降24元；1-3价差-38元，同比上升6元。 ◆ 供应端：月末中国负荷88.2%，同比下降1.6%；亚洲负荷78.6%，同比下降1.6%。国内装置方面，十一月检修量仍旧较少，整体负荷持续维持 高位。后续来看，十二月检修量同样偏少，负荷环比预期持稳。进口方面，11月韩国PX出口中国39万吨，环比下降3.5万吨。 ◆ 需求端：月底PTA负荷73.7%，月环比下降2.7%。十一月检修装置有所增加，整体负荷低于十月。十二月检修量预期仍 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish, but the rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited. Long - term attention should be paid to the 05 contract [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - end: Brent oil prices range from $60 - 65 per barrel. OPEC+ agreed to keep production stable next year, and eight major oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in Q1 next year, partially alleviating oil price pressure, but the overall fundamentals have a bearish impact on oil prices, and geopolitical and macro events may affect market sentiment. PX load remains high, and PXN has support but limited rebound space. PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, and processing fees are expected to gradually improve in the long - run. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% increase from the previous period). Although weaving orders are weakening, the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% due to low inventory in polyester factories. PF has good fundamentals but weakening demand, and the processing fee is slightly compressed. PR's fundamentals change little, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 32 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 184 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 266 yuan/ton (a 2 - yuan increase from the previous period). The PXN of PX is 286 dollars/ton (a 2.25 - dollar increase from the previous period) [1] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Relying on the current abundant MX supply, the PX load can be maintained at a high level, and PXN has support under the support of polyester operation. The PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve in the long - run [1][3] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - India's BIS cancellation has boosted PTA export demand [1] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - PX load remains high, and PTA has concentrated maintenance recently, and the supply - demand situation has improved [1][3] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Polyester factory inventory is currently low [2] Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% increase from the previous period), and it is expected to remain around 91% in the short - term [2] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 183 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period). Short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has decreased to a low level. However, downstream demand is weakening, and the processing fee is slightly compressed [2] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 445 yuan/ton (a 13 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, large manufacturers continue to cut or stop production, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [2]

Group 1: Report Title and Information - Report title: "Polyester Weekly Report 2025/11/29: Blending Narrative Pauses, but Supply and Demand Expectations Support Valuation" [1] - Contact person: Ma Guiyan, contact number: 13923915659, email: magy@wkqh.cn [1] - Transaction consultation number: Z0020397, qualification number: F03136381 [1] - Author: Liu Jiewen (Energy and Chemical Group), qualification number: F03097315 [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN fluctuated and declined after reaching a high. Although the strong expectations for next year supported it to stop falling and rebound, the current PX load remains high, and there are many downstream PTA overhauls. The overall load center is low. The large - scale PTA production and the expectation of the upcoming off - season for downstream products suppress PTA processing fees. The low PTA operation makes it difficult to continuously reduce PX inventory. It is expected that PX will slightly accumulate inventory in November. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. In the short term, due to the weakening of aromatics blending data, PX lacks the driving force to increase its valuation under a slight surplus, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees mainly showed a slight repair, mainly because continuous unexpected overhauls led to a certain repair of the balance sheet expectations. In the future, on the supply side, as processing fees gradually stabilize and repair, it is expected that unexpected overhauls will gradually decrease. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester fibers are low, and the load is expected to remain high in the short term. However, due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, the load of bottle chips is difficult to increase. In terms of valuation, the upside space of PTA processing fees is limited without further stimulation. In the short term, due to the weakening of aromatics blending data, PX lacks the driving force to increase its valuation under a slight surplus, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction for PXN [12]. - MEG: In terms of industrial fundamentals, the domestic plant load is lower than expected due to a large number of unexpected overhauls. It is expected that the domestic supply volume will decrease in December, and the import volume will slightly decline. The port inventory accumulation rate may slow down. In the medium term, as the overhauls end, it is expected that the domestic output will still be high. Coupled with the gradual commissioning of new plants, the supply - demand pattern is still weak. The current valuation is relatively low compared to the same period, but it is necessary to further reduce the load to slow down the inventory accumulation process. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies in the medium term [13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 80 yuan to 6830 yuan. The CFR China price in the spot market fell by 7 US dollars to 826 US dollars. The spot - converted basis rose by 10 yuan, reaching - 9 yuan as of November 29. The 1 - 3 spread fell by 14 yuan, reaching - 14 yuan as of November 28 [11]. - Supply side: Last week, the Chinese load was 88.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the Asian load was 78.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was under maintenance; overseas, the 550,000 - ton plant of GS in South Korea reduced its load. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 275,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle of November, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. Overall, although there were some unexpected plant situations recently, the contribution to the reduction of supply was small, and the subsequent domestic maintenance volume was still small, with the load remaining high [11]. - Demand side: The PTA load was 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. In terms of plants, Honggang restarted, and Zhongtai increased its load. The unexpected maintenance volume of PTA in November increased, and it may enter a phased de - stocking stage [11]. - Inventory: The social inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month inventory increase of 48,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory from November to December, mainly due to a significant increase in PTA maintenance volume [11]. - Valuation cost side: As of November 27, PXN was 260 US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1 US dollar; the naphtha crack spread fell by 5 US dollars, reaching 105 US dollars as of November 27, and the crude oil trend fluctuated. In terms of aromatics blending, last week, the gasoline crack spread between the US and Asia declined, the US gasoline inventory increased, the aromatics spread between the US and Asia decreased, and the relative value of blending declined [11]. PTA - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 34 yuan to 4700 yuan. The spot price in East China fell by 20 yuan to 4610 yuan. The spot basis rose by 25 yuan, reaching - 38 yuan as of November 28. The 1 - 5 spread fell by 8 yuan, reaching - 52 yuan as of November 28 [12]. - Supply side: The PTA load was 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. In terms of plants, Honggang restarted, and Zhongtai increased its load. The unexpected maintenance volume of PTA in November increased, and it may enter a phased de - stocking stage [12]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester load was 91.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Among them, the filament load was 94.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the staple fiber load was 97.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the bottle chip load was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In terms of plants, there were few overall changes, and the load of some plants recovered. In terms of polyester, profits were repaired, the short - term inventory pressure was low, the terminal was gradually entering the off - season, but the current load was still high. It is expected that the polyester fiber load will remain high in the short term; the bottle chip load will mainly remain stable in the short term due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season. At the terminal, the finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, the texturing load was 87%, unchanged from the previous month; the loom load was 72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the polyester yarn load was 66%, unchanged from the previous month. In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [12]. - Inventory: As of November 21, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.23 million tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of 33,000 tons. The downstream load remained high, and the expected increase in PTA maintenance volume in November is expected to lead to a phased de - stocking stage [12]. - Profit side: Last week, the spot processing fee increased by 25 yuan, reaching 190 yuan/ton as of November 27; the disk processing fee increased by 9 yuan, reaching 225 yuan/ton as of November 27 [12]. MEG - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 77 yuan to 3885 yuan. The spot price in East China rose by 15 yuan to 3900 yuan. The basis fell by 28 yuan, reaching 4 yuan as of November 28. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, reaching - 93 yuan as of November 28 [13]. - Supply side: Last week, the EG load was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. Among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 72%, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%; the ethylene - based load was 73.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. In terms of synthetic gas - based plants, Yankuang resumed production, Hongsifang was restarting, and Meijin increased its load; in terms of petrochemical plants, Hainan Refining and Chemical reduced its load, Zhenhai and Yuandonglian increased their loads, Shenghong restarted, and Sinochem Quanzhou was under maintenance; overseas, South Asia in the United States had an unexpected shutdown, and plants such as Morvarid in Iran, Donglian in Taiwan, China, and Zhongxian were under maintenance. Overall, there were many unexpected overhauls recently, and the subsequent load will improve compared to the previous high level. In terms of arrivals, the arrival forecast last week was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,000 tons. The imports in October were 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons [13]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester load was 91.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Among them, the filament load was 94.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the staple fiber load was 97.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the bottle chip load was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In terms of plants, there were few overall changes, and the load of some plants recovered. In terms of polyester, profits were repaired, the short - term inventory pressure was low, the terminal was gradually entering the off - season, but the current load was still high. It is expected that the polyester fiber load will remain high in the short term; the bottle chip load will mainly remain stable in the short term due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season. At the terminal, the finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, the texturing load was 87%, unchanged from the previous month; the loom load was 72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the polyester yarn load was 66%, unchanged from the previous month. In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [13]. - Inventory: As of November 24, the port inventory was 732,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month; the downstream factory inventory days were 15 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.2 days. In the short term, the arrival volume decreased last week, and the departure volume was moderately low. It is expected that the port inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The increase in unexpected domestic plant overhauls and the expected decrease in overseas arrivals in December have improved the ethylene glycol balance sheet expectations [13]. - Valuation cost side: The naphtha - based production profit increased by 70 yuan to - 828 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based production profit increased by 21 yuan to - 668 yuan/ton, and the coal - based production profit decreased by 224 yuan to - 74 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene was 730 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines was 680 yuan/ton. The coal cost rebounded, and ethylene remained stable. Currently, the overall valuation is moderately low [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - PX: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread fluctuated weakly. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [32][35]. - PTA: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread declined. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [44][47]. - MEG: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread was weak. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [57][65]. - Overseas commodity prices: The overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China were presented through charts [75]. 3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - Supply: The load remained at a high level. The Chinese and Asian PX operating rates were presented through charts [82]. - Import: The import volume decreased slightly in October. The import data from different regions were presented through charts [86]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory accumulation in October. The social inventory and warehouse receipt data were presented through charts [88]. - Cost - profit: PXN was strong, the short - process spread widened, and the naphtha crack spread was strong. The relevant cost - profit data were presented through multiple charts [92]. - Aromatics blending: The gasoline performance weakened, and data on octane value, aromatics spreads, blending relative value, South Korean aromatics inventory, and trade were presented through multiple charts [99][105][109][111][114][122]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - New capacity: There were new PTA production capacities put into operation in 2024 and 2025. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [133]. - Load: The load data were presented through a chart [136]. - Export: The total export and export data to specific regions were presented through charts [138]. - Inventory: The end - of - period inventory, in - plant inventory days, and total warehouse receipt data were presented through charts [140]. - Profit valuation: The processing fee was slightly repaired. The spot processing fee, disk processing fee, and acetic acid cost data were presented through charts [142]. 5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - New capacity: There were new MEG production capacities put into operation in 2024 and 2025. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [146]. - Supply: The operating rate rebounded. The overall operating rate, synthetic gas - based operating rate, and ethylene - based operating rate data were presented through charts [149]. - Import: The import data from different regions were presented through charts [152]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation slowed down this week, and the upstream and downstream factory inventories were high. The relevant inventory data were presented through multiple charts [159]. - Cost: Coal prices fluctuated, and ethylene prices were weak. The relevant cost data were presented through charts [169]. - Profit: The naphtha - based production profit declined to the lowest level of the year, and the coal - based production profit was significantly compressed. The relevant profit data were presented through multiple charts [172]. 6. Polyester and Terminal - Polyester - New capacity: There were new polyester production capacities put into operation, mainly in the form of polyester filament and bottle chip. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [186]. - Basis: The staple fiber basis was strong, and the bottle chip basis fluctuated [189]. - Supply: The operating rate remained stable at a high level. The downstream proportion and operating rate data were presented through charts [192]. - Inventory: The filament inventory was at a low level. The inventory data of different polyester products were presented through charts [200]. - Sales rate: The sales rate data of filament, staple fiber, and chips were presented through charts [206]. - Profit: The filament profit was repaired. The profit data of different polyester products were presented through charts [209]. - Terminal - Operating rate: The operating rate decreased and was lower than the same period last year. The operating rate data of different terminal industries were presented through charts [213]. - Order and inventory: Orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory preparation decreased. The relevant data were presented through charts [222]. - Textile and clothing and soft drinks: The growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand recovered, and exports were weak. The relevant data were presented through charts [226]. - US clothing inventory: The wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally. The relevant data were presented through charts [228].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With the weakening of aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction as it is in a slightly oversupplied situation [11]. - PTA's processing fee has slightly recovered, but the upside space is limited without further stimulus. PXN also faces a risk of valuation correction [12]. - For MEG, the supply - demand outlook remains weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies as the inventory build - up needs to be mitigated by reducing the load [13]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations PX - Price: The 01 contract dropped 56 yuan to 6750 yuan last week, while the CFR China spot price rose 7 dollars to 833 dollars [11]. - Supply: China's load was 89.5%, up 2.7% week - on - week; Asia's load was 79.7%, up 1.2%. Some plants restarted, and imports from South Korea to China increased [11]. - Demand: PTA load decreased to 71%, down 4.7% week - on - week due to plant maintenance [11]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory build - up expected in November [11]. - Valuation and cost: PXN was 260 dollars as of November 20, up 3 dollars year - on - year. Aromatics blending expectations weakened [11]. PTA - Price: The 01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4666 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 65 yuan to 4630 yuan [12]. - Supply: PTA load decreased to 71%, down 4.7% week - on - week because of accidental maintenance in November [12]. - Demand: Polyester load increased to 91.3%, up 0.8% week - on - week. However, the terminal is gradually entering the off - season [12]. - Inventory: It is expected to enter a phase of inventory reduction [12]. - Profit: Spot processing fee increased 25 yuan to 164 yuan/ton [12]. MEG - Price: The 01 contract declined 114 yuan to 3808 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 56 yuan to 3885 yuan [13]. - Supply: EG load decreased to 70.8%, down 0.7% week - on - week. There were many accidental plant maintenance events [13]. - Demand: Polyester load increased to 91.3%, up 0.8% week - on - week, but the terminal is in a downward trend [13]. - Inventory: Port inventory increased, but the inventory build - up rate is expected to slow down [13]. - Valuation and cost: Overall valuation is moderately low, but load reduction is needed to slow down inventory build - up [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets PX - Basis and spreads: The basis weakened, and monthly spreads fluctuated weakly [32]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, but figures are presented for reference [35][39][42]. PTA - Basis and spreads: The basis was at a low level, and monthly spreads strengthened [45]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, with relevant figures presented [48][52][55]. MEG - Basis and spreads: The basis weakened, and monthly spreads were weak [58]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, with corresponding figures given [66][69][72]. 3.3 Paraxylene (PX) Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity expansions are planned, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 300 - million - ton project in the second half of 2025 [79]. - Supply: Accidental plant outages recovered, and the October import volume slightly declined [82][86]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory build - up in September [88]. - Cost and profit: PXN was strong, short - process spreads were compressed, and naphtha spreads were strong [92]. - Aromatics blending: Gasoline performance weakened, and the relative value of blending decreased [99][110]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity is being added, like Hailun Petrochemical's 320 - million - ton project in July 2025 [132]. - Supply: Load decreased due to accidental maintenance, and exports are also affected [12][135]. - Inventory: Inventory is expected to decrease in the short - term [12]. - Profit and valuation: Processing fees slightly recovered [141]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity projects are underway, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton project in September 2025 [145]. - Supply: The operating rate decreased, especially for syngas - based plants [148]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and upstream and downstream factory inventories were relatively high [158]. - Cost: Coal prices declined, and ethylene was weak [168]. - Profit: Naphtha - based production profit dropped to a yearly low, and coal - based profit was significantly compressed [171]. 3.6 Polyester and End - Markets Polyester - Capacity: New filament plants were put into operation, and capacity continued to grow [184]. - Basis: Staple fiber basis was strong, and bottle chip basis fluctuated [187]. - Supply: The operating rate slightly increased [190]. - Inventory: Filament inventory was at a low level [197]. - Profit: Filament profit recovered [206]. End - Markets - Operating rate: The operating rate decreased, showing a year - on - year decline [210]. - Orders and inventory: Orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory decreased [219]. - Retail and exports: Domestic textile and clothing retail growth recovered, while exports were weak [223]. - US inventory: US clothing wholesale inventory was below the pre - pandemic high, with a marginal increase [225].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of the polyester industry, covering PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products [3][4][5] - It includes supply, demand, valuation, and strategy insights for each segment - Forecasts for 2026 indicate continued growth in polyester production and potential challenges in supply - demand balance Group 2: PX Analysis Investment Rating - PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain in the first half of 2026 [15] Core View - PX is in a strong - oscillating market, with cost support from blending demand but potential downstream demand weakness [3] Supply - Chinese FJDH will expand a 70 - ton device to 100 tons by the end of the year; some overseas devices are under maintenance [3] - The domestic operating rate is at a historical high, with 10 - month output of 3.35 million tons and this week's rate at 86.8% (- 3%) [46] Demand - PTA load has been adjusted, and subsequent load will remain low, with inventory accumulation pressure easing temporarily [3][4] Valuation - PXN is at $256/ton (+15), and PX - MX Korea FOB spread is $103/ton (- 6) [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 6,600 - 7,100 [3] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3] - Inter - variety: Short PXN at high levels [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Investment Rating - PTA is in a strong - oscillating market, but with limited upside space [4] Core View - Cost support exists, but supply may still be excessive after some device overhauls end [4] Supply - Some PTA devices are under maintenance, and the load has been adjusted to 75.7% (- 0.7%) [4][84] - The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is 60.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [84] Demand - Polyester load has temporarily decreased but is expected to rebound; domestic weaving orders are weakening [4] Valuation - The processing fee of the 01 contract is 219 yuan/ton (- 31), and the spot processing fee is 173 yuan/ton (+ 51) [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 4,500 - 4,800 [4] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage at high levels [4] - Inter - variety: Long PTA and short MEG, long PX and short PTA [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Investment Rating - MEG faces medium - term supply pressure and is in a short - term weak - oscillating state [5] Core View - Supply pressure persists, and short - term trends are weak, with a negative spread strategy for the spread [5] Supply - The overall operating rate is 72.44% (- 3.76%), and some coal - based devices have reduced loads [5][128] - Imports have been concentrated recently, and port inventories are accumulating [5][131] Demand - Domestic downstream orders are weakening, but polyester load remains relatively stable in the short term [5] Valuation - Coal - based device profit is - 299 yuan/ton (- 265), and oil - based devices continue to lose money [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range of 3,800 - 4,000 [5] - Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [5] - Inter - variety: Long L and short MEG [5] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Investment Rating - The polyester industry shows stable growth, with potential for continued export - driven demand [154][155] Core View - Polyester production is growing steadily, and inventory levels are generally neutral to low [154][156] Supply - Polyester load has temporarily decreased but is expected to rebound; production in 2025 has increased year - on - year [149][155] Demand - Export demand is strong, with significant growth in various polyester product exports from January to September 2025 [155] Inventory - Overall inventory is neutral to low, and the operating resilience of filament production has increased [156] Strategy - Monitor the impact of upstream raw material prices and downstream demand on polyester production and sales

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX and PTA market is expected to maintain a tight - balance with PTA prices oscillating upwards, while MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are expected to experience short - term oscillations [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX**: This week, PX supply increased while demand decreased. The spot floating price showed a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and the paper - goods maintained a back structure. The naphtha cracking spread strengthened, and the profitability of long - and short - process PX devices was good. The PX operating rate recovered and remained at a high level in Asia. The trading strategy is a long - position for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][22][26]. - **PTA**: This week, PTA's supply and demand both declined, and the social inventory continued to rise. The spot processing fee remained low. The trading strategy is a long - position for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][30]. - **MEG**: Recently, the willingness of holders to sell increased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range. The supply and demand both decreased, and there was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money call options [7][43]. - **Short - fiber**: This week, short - fiber supply increased while demand remained stable. Factory sales were weak, and inventory rose. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][21]. - **Bottle - chip**: The bottle - chip operating rate weakened slightly this week, and the trading atmosphere was light. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][16]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The polyester operating rate decreased slightly, production and sales were average, raw - material inventory decreased slightly, and processing fees fluctuated within a narrow range [10]. - The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing increased by 2% to 88%, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving decreased by 1% to 75%, and the comprehensive operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 2% to 80% [12]. - The production and sales of polyester filaments were weak, the operating rate changed little, factory inventory increased, and processing fees strengthened slightly. The average inventory days of polyester filaments increased by 0.7 days to 16.5 days [14]. - The bottle - chip trading atmosphere weakened, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the demand improvement in the off - season was limited [16]. - Short - fiber supply increased while demand remained stable, factory inventory increased, and the future demand showed a seasonal decline [21]. 3.2.2 PX - The PX trading atmosphere was light this week. The December spot floating price was negotiated around +4 to +7, and the January floating price was around +2. The paper - goods monthly spread maintained a back structure [22]. - The naphtha cracking spread strengthened, and the profitability of long - and short - process PX devices was good. The average weekly spread of Asian PXN was 238 dollars/ton, and the average weekly spread of PX - MX was 110 dollars/ton [24]. - The PX operating rate recovered, and the Asian PX operating rate remained at a high level [26]. 3.2.3 PTA - Since late September, PTA's social inventory has continuously increased, and the basis and monthly spread have remained weak [28]. - PTA's supply and demand both decreased this week, and the spot processing fee remained low, with an average weekly processing fee of around 136 yuan/ton [30]. 3.2.4 MEG - Recently, the willingness of holders to sell increased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [33]. - MEG's supply and demand both decreased this week, and the operating rate declined. There was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [43]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and PX in the Chinese market [47]. - **Spreads and Profits**: It includes various spreads and profit indicators such as NAP Japan CFR - BLENT, PX - BLENT, PX - MX, etc. [49]. - **Disproportionation and Blending Oil Spreads and Profits**: It involves indicators such as the Asian toluene disproportionation - blending oil spread, toluene blending oil spread, and disproportionation profit [53]. - **Regional Spreads and Profits**: It shows the spreads and profits between different regions such as the United States and South Korea for toluene, xylene, and PX [56][57][59]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the PX operating rate and load in China and Asia [61][62]. 3.3.2 PTA - **Price**: It shows the spot prices of PTA and PX, and the spot processing fee and internal - external spread of PTA [67][68]. - **Spreads**: It includes the PTA01 basis and the PTA1 - 5 monthly spread [71]. - **Profits**: It shows the profits of PTA from crude oil, naphtha, and PX [73]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the PTA load index and polyester load [77]. - **Inventory**: It shows the PTA social inventory, factory inventory, and warehouse receipts [79]. 3.3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China and the prices of related raw materials [81]. - **Spreads**: It includes various spreads such as the internal - external spread of ethylene glycol, the East - South China spread, and the spot basis [83][86]. - **Profits**: It shows the profits of oil - based ethylene glycol production, MTO, and coal - based ethylene glycol production [93]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the ethylene glycol load index and the operating rate of synthetic - gas - based MEG [99]. 3.3.4 Polyester - **Profits**: It shows the weighted profit of polyester, the average profit of filaments, and the profits of short - fiber and bottle - chip [104]. - **Supply**: It shows the operating rates of polyester, bottle - chip, filaments, and short - fiber [106]. - **Inventory**: It shows the average inventory days of filaments, short - fiber inventory days, and the inventory days of different types of polyester filaments [109]. - **Demand**: It shows the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing, weaving, and texturing, as well as the operating rate and inventory of pure - polyester yarn, and the export amount of textiles and clothing [112][117][120].