12月22日早盘， A+H芯片半导体产业链走强，港股方面，商汤-W大涨超7%，中芯国际涨近6%，鸿腾 精密涨近5%，华虹半导体涨超4%。全市场首只聚焦"港股芯片"产业链的港股信息技术ETF（159131） 场内价格现涨1.69%，实时成交额超3000万元。 | | SHE SEE 15 SSE 159 305 605 EL IN FL 1 1 1 1 | | | | F9 品牌盘后 盘加 元阳 阅读 工具 @ (1) > 159131(和田田地水(1) 11.06 (1 0.922 国政 0.015(1.678) 240) 0.90 威空部 37M ICPV 0.9034 ... 图 0.902 +0.015 +1.89% | | | | | | 港股信息技术ETF T | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 090 | | | | | | | | | | | 159131 - | | | | Mark won and the | | | | | | | | 525E CNY 1 ...

Group 1 - A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index being relatively stable while the ChiNext Index is weaker due to a pullback in the technology manufacturing sector [1][11] - The consensus is forming around a potential "rally" in the market as liquidity expectations improve following key overseas events and a positive policy environment from the Central Economic Work Conference [12][13] - The market style is expected to shift towards small-cap and technology growth sectors during the "rally" window from late January to early March 2026, following a period of value-driven performance [12][13] Group 2 - The strong market performance on Wednesday may indicate the start of the 2026 cross-year market trend, supported by significant net subscriptions in stock ETFs [14] - Continued policy support and stable economic growth are anticipated to bolster market confidence and attract various types of capital inflows [14] - The trend of high-net-worth individuals moving their deposits into the stock market is likely to continue, driven by lower expected returns from other asset classes [15] Group 3 - Incremental capital is entering the A-share market through broad-based ETFs, signaling positive market sentiment as investors prepare for the "spring rally" [16] - The technology and small-cap sectors are expected to perform actively as investors increase their positions [16] - The easing of "AI bubble" concerns and the resolution of liquidity uncertainties are providing a recovery opportunity for the market [17] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on three key areas: dividend value, high-growth sectors during the upcoming "rally," and active themes driven by policy and technology [18] - In a strengthening RMB environment, sectors such as aviation, gas, and paper are expected to benefit from cost advantages, while upstream resources and consumer goods may see profit margin improvements [20][21] - The non-bank financial sector, particularly insurance stocks, is showing increased elasticity and may outperform if policy catalysts emerge [21]

Market Outlook - A classic "cross-year-spring" market is brewing, with signals indicating that it has already begun. Key factors include the expected acceleration of central budget investments and significant institutional investors increasing their holdings in A500 ETF, providing stable incremental funds to the market [2][36][38] - The main focus of the market is likely to be on blue-chip indices represented by the CSI 300 and SSE 50, with an emphasis on cyclical sectors such as industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation [2][36][38] Economic Indicators - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales narrowed, with a total of 456,067 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points to 4.0%. The retail sales excluding automobiles reached 411,637 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% [43][57] - Major enterprises in the machinery sector showed improvement in sales, with loader sales increasing by 32.1% year-on-year, and the sales of excavators and road rollers also showing significant growth [49][51] Investment Trends - The A500 ETF has seen substantial net subscriptions, with a single-day subscription amount reaching a historical high of 7.1 billion yuan, indicating that significant institutional investors are entering the capital market through this product [13][36] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has been strengthening, suggesting that overseas funds are beginning to flow into the domestic market, which is often associated with expectations of positive changes in domestic policies [15][16][36] Sector Performance - The retail sector has been supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with notable growth in the commercial retail sector driven by holiday consumption expectations [40] - The technology sector, particularly AI, remains a strong growth engine for the economy, with Hong Kong stocks showing high investment value in technology companies that are not present in A-shares [29][38] Market Dynamics - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with large-cap value stocks outperforming small-cap stocks as investors become more conservative due to year-end performance assessments [31][39] - The upcoming earnings forecast disclosure period in January is expected to increase pressure on small-cap stocks, while large-cap blue-chip stocks are likely to attract more investment due to their stability [33][36]

这样一幕令人惊叹。 随着摩尔线程、沐曦相继上市，科创板短短半个月内一举诞生两个3000亿市值IPO，创投圈为之沸腾。在此之前，寒武纪、海光信息市值均一度突破6000 亿元。至此，中国"算力四贵"合计市值已超1.6万亿元。 鲜少有人注意到，梳理寒武纪、海光信息、摩尔线程、沐曦背后，意外浮现着一个共同的身影——联想创投。复盘下来，能做到独中四元的投资机构，似 乎就只有联想创投一家。 这是中国算力崛起叙事当中的一个惊喜片段。感叹于此，我们尝试去还原这段几近被忽略的投资往事。 从寒武纪到沐曦 联想创投，独中四元 回过头看，联想创投这几笔投资在当时都投在了"寂寞无声处"。 时间回到2017年，正值移动互联网的风口，芯片算力赛道几乎无人问津，鲜少有投资人会专注于此。但彼时刚成立不久的联想创投却是一个例外——当时 他们根植于联想集团"端-边-云-网-智"新IT战略，将AI算力视为智能世界的"心脏"，判断应用导向的大计算将会使得未来十年对算力需求仍然有百倍增 长。 出手寒武纪始于一个下午。投资界曾记录这段往事：2017年，联想创投总裁、创始合伙人贺志强在中国科学院第一次见到陈天石，"话不多，典型的技术 天才气质。" 经过几次 ...

随着 2026年临近，展望未来一年宏观经济与资本市场运行环境，一方面，稳增长政策仍将持续落 地，经济数据预计有望逐步改善，从而为本轮慢牛、长牛行情提供基本面支撑；另一方面，我国经济 转型仍在持续推进。 在"十五五"规划中被重点强调的科技创新方向，包括芯片半导体、人工智能、低空经济、固态电 池、生物医药以及人形机器人等领域，仍将是未来经济增长的重要亮点。 在整体工业增加值增速相 对偏低的背景下，这些新兴产业已呈现出较为明显的增速回升态势，预计在2026年仍将延续较快增 长趋势。因此，科技牛行情更偏向于中长期机会，而非短期主题炒作，在以科技创新为主导的经济增 长模式下，科技类资产仍值得长期关注。 与 2025年科技股"一枝独秀"的结构性行情相比，2026年的市场环境更有可能呈现出板块轮动加 快、参与面扩大的特征， 市场形态或更接近全面牛市。 指数层面，有望在前期高点之上进一步拓展 运行空间，新能源、消费白马、有色金属、军工等板块也可能逐步活跃，带动整体赚钱效应改善。 年底的阶段性调整并不会改变 A股市场慢牛、长牛的总体趋势，其本质更多是通过震荡出清短期浮 筹，为下一阶段行情积蓄动能。回顾全年，人工智能相关科技板块 ...

临近年底，许多投资者期待2026年能否出现春季攻势，以及本轮慢牛长期走势能否延续。我认为，2025 年A股市场一度突破4000点，确立了这轮慢牛长牛的走势。4000点并非行情的终点，而是新一轮行情的 起点。虽然2025年市场行情较为分化，科技股几乎一枝独秀，银行股也在追求稳定回报的资金推动下创 出新高，但其他很多板块表现不佳，因此不少投资者对本轮牛市产生质疑，甚至大盘已达4000点仍有人 不相信这是牛市。现在可以确认，这轮慢牛长牛行情将会持续，且有望延续两至三年，甚至三至五年。 既然是慢牛，上涨节奏就不会太快，每年指数上涨10%~20%是比较常见的幅度。在这样的慢牛长牛行 情下，投资者更容易获得收益；快牛、疯牛反而不利于投资，因为市场快速上涨时很多投资者抓不住机 会，而快涨之后往往急跌，容易造成较大损失。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 A股投资者一直期待能出现像美股那样长达十年的慢牛长牛，从而实现财富的稳步增长。当前这轮牛市 开局良好，自去年"924"政策转向后，市场便开启了这轮慢牛长牛。目前行情已进入第三阶段：第一阶 段是"924"政策转向带动市场快速上涨，短短四个交易日大盘拉升近千点，确立了牛市基础；随后 ...

随着2026年临近，展望未来一年宏观经济与资本市场运行环境，一方面，稳增长政策仍将持续落地，经 济数据预计有望逐步改善，从而为本轮慢牛、长牛行情提供基本面支撑；另一方面，我国经济转型仍在 持续推进。在"十五五"规划中被重点强调的科技创新方向，包括芯片半导体、人工智能、低空经济、固 态电池、生物医药以及人形机器人等领域，仍将是未来经济增长的重要亮点。在整体工业增加值增速相 对偏低的背景下，这些新兴产业已呈现出较为明显的增速回升态势，预计在2026年仍将延续较快增长趋 势。因此，科技牛行情更偏向于中长期机会，而非短期主题炒作，在以科技创新为主导的经济增长模式 下，科技类资产仍值得长期关注。 与2025年科技股"一枝独秀"的结构性行情相比，2026年的市场环境更有可能呈现出板块轮动加快、参与 面扩大的特征，市场形态或更接近全面牛市。指数层面，有望在前期高点之上进一步拓展运行空间，新 能源、消费白马、有色金属、军工等板块也可能逐步活跃，带动整体赚钱效应改善。 居民储蓄向资本市场转移的趋势在2025年已经明显启动。过去10至11个月，公募基金发行规模已超过1 万亿元，其中权益类基金规模占比超过一半，逐步取代债券型基金成 ...

Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - Multiple international institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, with the World Bank increasing its estimate by 0.4 percentage points, the International Monetary Fund by 0.2 percentage points, and the Asian Development Bank by 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - The World Bank highlights the diversification of China's export markets as a key factor supporting export resilience [2] - The Asian Development Bank attributes the upward revision to the resilience of Chinese exports and ongoing fiscal policy support [2] Group 2: Export Performance - China's merchandise trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in the first 11 months of 2025, with double-digit export growth to Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia in November [2] - Despite the impact of U.S. tariffs, China's actual exports are expected to grow by approximately 8% for the year, indicating strong competitiveness in various industries [2] - High-tech exports from China have been steadily increasing, particularly in sectors such as chips, semiconductors, and automotive components [2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Resilience - The IMF's Managing Director emphasizes targeted measures to expand domestic demand, including strengthening social security and increasing support for elderly care and childcare [3] - The OECD has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 to 5%, citing productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence and consumption expansion as key factors [3] - Deloitte's report predicts increased policy support will likely drive a rebound in domestic demand across specific industries [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Barclays Bank identifies significant investment opportunities in China, driven by stimulus measures and adjustments in national industrial structure [3] - China is recognized as a global leader in high-tech sectors such as solar panels, lithium batteries, and wind power equipment, presenting ample opportunities for investors [3] - Goldman Sachs reiterates China's goal of achieving per capita GDP at the level of developed countries by 2035, suggesting a focus on promoting both economic and income growth [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that Chinese enterprises are integrating culture, technology, and physical entities to achieve high-quality global development under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3] - The Southern Finance Forum's annual meeting highlighted the importance of new quality services as a key engine for cultivating new productive forces, showcasing specific cases from various industries [2][3] - The report "Navigating the Future - Benchmark Cases of New Quality Services" focuses on service transformation amid industrial upgrades, providing reference experiences for practical implementation [2] Group 2 - New quality services are characterized by new momentum through innovative production factors like information technology and AI, a new ecosystem relying on partner networks, and a new paradigm promoting deep industry integration [2][8] - The gaming industry is evolving into a significant carrier of national cultural soft power, with companies adopting localized strategies for different markets to enhance cultural influence while generating revenue [5][6] - Financial technology is positioned as a critical tool for institutional globalization, with companies expanding their international presence to provide secure and efficient solutions for overseas financial institutions [6][8] Group 3 - The globalization of manufacturing and service industries is increasingly reliant on system integration and long-term strategies, with companies facing challenges such as management complexity and cultural differences [6][7] - The integration of physical and intelligent solutions is evident in smart city and industrial internet sectors, with companies leveraging AI and localizing successful business models in international markets [7][8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" encourages the development of high-quality and efficient services, with a focus on creating a service system that supports green and low-carbon transformations for Chinese enterprises [7][8] Group 4 - The transition from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in China" and ultimately to "Chinese Solutions" is driven by new productive forces, technological empowerment, and sustainable practices [8] - Companies with genuine innovation, governance capabilities, and a sense of responsibility are positioned to navigate economic cycles successfully [8]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：财经读数 机构认为，摩尔线程股价上涨属短期现象，最终能否一路高歌猛进，与基本面密切相关 "国产GPU（图形处理器）第一股" C摩尔-U（摩尔线程，688795.SH）上市后股价再攀新高。 12月11日，摩尔线程在大盘指数均下跌的情况下，股价上涨28.04%至941.08元/股，逼近1000元/股，再 创历史新高，成为当日市场一大亮点，也成为A股第三高价股，股价仅次于贵州茅台（600519.SH）和 寒武纪（688256.SH）。若此前打新的投资者一直持有至今，中一签的浮盈已高达41万元。 上市后的短短五个交易日，摩尔线程股价相比114.28元/股的发行价，已累计上涨超7倍，达723.4%，总 市值方面，从537亿元的发行市值，上涨了3886亿元至4423.3亿元。其市值大幅增长，缩小了与中芯国 际（688981.SH）、寒武纪、海光信息（688235.SH）三家科创板芯片半导体巨头的差距。根据最新市 值，摩尔线程与寒武纪的市值相差约1404亿元。 同时，这家创立仅五年，上市仅五个交易日的AI（人工智能）芯片公司总市值已跻身A股市值 ...