1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Short-term participation [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][11][12] - **Coking coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][15][16] - **Manganese silicon**: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] - **Silicon iron**: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: After continuous decline, there may be a short-term rebound. Rebar has high production enthusiasm but weak demand, and supply-demand may loosen. Hot-rolled coil has a relatively stable fundamentals with a loosening supply-demand trend [1][3][4] - **Iron ore**: The industrial fundamentals are weak, and the ore price fluctuates weakly. The supply is increasing, and it waits for a new downward window [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Spot starts the seventh round of price increase, but may face steel mill games. Supply-demand is balanced, and there may be a short-term rebound [1][9][11] - **Coking coal**: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports increase. There is a downward repair space in the medium term and a short-term rebound possibility [1][13][15] - **Ferroalloys**: Fundamentals are weak, and prices run weakly. Manganese silicon has short-term demand resilience but high inventory. Silicon iron has increasing production, falling demand, and high supply pressure [1][17][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: High furnace and electric furnace profits, high iron water production, weak demand, lower-than-expected production restrictions, supply-demand loosening, possible short-term rebound due to policy [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled coil**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, limited impact of production restrictions, downward price with limited short-term downside, possible short-term rebound [1][4][5] Iron ore - **Price data**: Futures prices for different contracts are provided, along with spot prices, spreads, and freight rates [6] - **Fundamentals**: Increasing iron water production, insufficient environmental protection restrictions, end of steel mill restocking, port inventory accumulation, and a weakening supply-demand situation [7] Coke - **Price and inventory data**: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and profit data are given [10] - **Fundamentals**: Spot price increase, improved coke enterprise profits, balanced supply-demand, stable production and inventory, possible short-term rebound [11] Coking coal - **Price and inventory data**: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and utilization rate data are provided [14] - **Fundamentals**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, high iron water production, stable demand, medium-term downward repair space, short-term rebound possibility [15] Ferroalloys - **Manganese silicon**: Loosening fundamentals, short-term demand resilience, high inventory, increased manganese ore shipments, stable port inventory, possible short-term rebound, medium-term sell-on-rally strategy [19][20] - **Silicon iron**: Increasing production, falling demand, high supply pressure, possible short-term rebound after over - decline, short - selling participation [19][20]

Group 1: Electric Equipment - Haopeng Technology - The company achieved revenue of 2.763 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.29% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 97 million yuan, up 252.49% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 80 million yuan, increasing by 366.27% [6] - The company expects net profits of 259 million, 387 million, and 503 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 183.9%, 49.3%, and 30.0% respectively [8] Group 2: Non-Banking Financial - Hong Kong Stock Exchange - The company reported a revenue of 14.076 billion HKD and a net profit of 8.519 billion HKD in H1 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 33% and 39% respectively [10] - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached approximately 240.2 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 117.6% [11] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 16.623 billion HKD in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.6 times based on the closing price on August 20 [12] Group 3: Nonferrous Metals - Jinli Permanent Magnet - The company achieved revenue of approximately 3.507 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.33%, with a net profit of 305 million yuan, up 154.81% [17] - Domestic sales revenue was 2.994 billion yuan, increasing by 8.17%, while overseas sales revenue was 513 million yuan, down 13.58% [17] - The company expects EPS of 0.47, 0.59, and 0.72 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-book ratios of 5.1, 4.6, and 4.1 [19] Group 4: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - Lihua Co., Ltd. - The company reported revenue of 8.353 billion yuan and a net profit of 149 million yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7.02% but a decrease in net profit by 74.10% [21] - The chicken business revenue was 635 million yuan, down 6.76% year-on-year, while the pig business revenue was 1.947 billion yuan, up 117.65% [22] - The company expects net profits of 586 million, 1.474 billion, and 1.942 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a year-on-year change of -61.5%, +151.5%, and +31.8% respectively [23] Group 5: Non-Banking Financial - Ruida Futures - The company achieved total revenue of 1.047 billion yuan and a net profit of 228 million yuan in H1 2025, with year-on-year increases of 4.49% and 66.49% respectively [26] - The asset management business saw a revenue increase of 223.83% to 121 million yuan, driven by product scale expansion and investment returns [26] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 423 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [28] Group 6: Steel - Hualing Steel - The company reported revenue of 62.794 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.02%, while net profit increased by 31.31% to 1.748 billion yuan [29] - The company’s high-end products accounted for 68.5% of total sales, with a focus on product structure optimization [30] - The company expects EPS of 0.44, 0.51, and 0.55 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13, 11, and 10 [31] Group 7: Automotive - Yixin Group - The company achieved total revenue of 5.452 billion yuan and a net profit of 549 million yuan in H1 2025, with year-on-year increases of 22% and 33.93% respectively [33] - The financing total reached 32.7 billion yuan, with a significant contribution from financial technology services, which saw a revenue increase of 124% [34] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.143 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.2% [35] Group 8: Automotive - Fuyao Glass - The company reported revenue of 21.45 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan in H1 2025, with year-on-year increases of 16.9% and 37.3% respectively [36] - The company’s gross margin improved to 37.1%, with a net margin of 22.4% [37] - The company expects revenue growth of 15% annually from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 9.3 billion, 10.6 billion, and 12.4 billion yuan [38] Group 9: Nonferrous Metals - Bowei Alloy - The company achieved revenue of 10.221 billion yuan and a net profit of 676 million yuan in H1 2025, with year-on-year increases of 15.21% and 6.05% respectively [40] - The new materials segment generated revenue of 7.935 billion yuan, up 23.83%, while the renewable energy segment saw a revenue decrease of 10.10% [41] - The company expects EPS of 1.97, 2.05, and 2.21 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.4, 12.9, and 11.9 [42]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices rise collectively, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading the way, closing up 1.96% [1] - The Hang Seng Index and the China Enterprises Index increased by 0.62% and 1.01% respectively [1] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks experienced significant gains, with JD.com and NetEase rising over 4%, Baidu up nearly 3%, Alibaba and Xiaomi increasing by 1.6%, Meituan up 1.4%, and Tencent also showing positive movement [1] - Automotive stocks surged, particularly following the opening of a factory in Brazil, with Great Wall Motors soaring by 12.6%, while NIO, Geely, and BYD also performed strongly [1] - The film industry saw a boost as summer box office revenues continued to climb, with leading films enhancing audience demand, resulting in a 37.6% increase for Lingmeng Media [1] - The brain-computer interface sector became active as OpenAI announced plans to enter this field, leading to increased activity in related stocks [1] Declines in Specific Sectors - The U.S. announced an expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by 50%, causing declines in steel and copper stocks [1] - Gold, coal, oil, domestic property, semiconductor stocks mostly performed poorly in response to the tariff news [1]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] Report Date - August 17, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei [2] - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021184 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment has eased, and steel prices are oscillating [3] Logic Summary Market Sentiment - The coking coal exchange has imposed position limits again, and the Economic Daily has published an article stating that anti-involution will not drive up general prices, leading to a缓和 in market sentiment [5] Macroeconomic Factors - **Overseas**: US PPI has soared by 3.3% year-on-year, with the month-on-month increase reaching a two-year high, indicating increased producer pressure. The expectation of an unexpected interest rate cut in September has been revised [5][9] - **Domestic**: The anti-involution trading has cooled off. The Politburo meeting on July 30 removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1. The statement "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity" has been changed to "promote capacity management in key industries", emphasizing the optimization of market competition order and the regulation of corporate disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations [5][8] Black Industry Chain - Steel demand remains stable during the off-season, with decent profits and low inventories. The daily consumption of scrap steel has rebounded, while the decline in hot metal production is slow, resulting in an ineffective negative feedback transmission [5][11] Section Summaries Rebar Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3320 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3188 (-25) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 132 (+5) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -81 (-8) yuan/ton [14] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low. Additionally, demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [17][20][21] - **Inventory and Production**: High profits have stimulated steel mills to resume production, leading to an accumulation of steel inventories. The production of long and short process rebar and their corresponding inventories are also presented [23][24] - **Production Profit**: The expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 226 (-63) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 207 (-42) yuan/ton. The valley electricity profit of East China rebar was 126 (-54) yuan/ton [29][33] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3460 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3439 (+11) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 21 (-1) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was 7 (+8) yuan/ton [35] - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, closing the export window [36][39][40] - **Inventory and Production**: Speculative demand has declined, leading to a faster accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventories. Production has also decreased [42][44] - **Production Profit**: Similar to rebar, the expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 200 (-31) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 308 (-6) yuan/ton [46][48] Variety Spread Structure - Opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread are worth noting [49] Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil are presented [58][59][60] Cold Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate are provided [62][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Credit bonds adjusted following interest rates, with medium - to long - term high - grade bonds having a larger upward amplitude. Credit spreads mostly declined, with medium - to long - end low - grade varieties having a larger compression amplitude [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads had limited changes, with spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ platforms generally up 1BP compared to last week, and AA - rated platforms remaining flat [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined overall, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds significantly decreased. Central and state - owned enterprise real estate bond spreads remained flat, while mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped 15BP and private real estate bond spreads rose 7BP [2][17]. - Perpetual and secondary capital (Two - Yong) bonds performed weakly with rising spreads, and the yields of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties significantly increased [2][29]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds increased, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds narrowed [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bonds Adjusted Following Interest Rates, with Medium - to Long - Term High - Grade Bonds Having a Larger Upward Amplitude - Affected by the rising equity market and policies such as discount interest and state - owned enterprise purchases, interest - rate bonds weakened significantly this week. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased by 3BP, 4BP, 8BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively [5]. - Credit bond yields also increased, with medium - to long - term high - grade varieties having a larger upward amplitude. For example, the yield of 1Y AAA - rated credit bonds increased by 2BP, and the yields of other grades increased by 3BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly declined, with medium - to long - end low - grade varieties having a larger compression amplitude. Rating spreads and term spreads showed differentiation [5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads Had Narrow Fluctuations - The spreads of external rating AAA and AA+ urban investment platforms generally increased by 1BP compared to last week, and AA - rated platforms remained flat. Most platform spreads changed within 1BP [9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial and municipal platforms generally remained flat, while the credit spreads of district - county platforms increased by 1BP [14]. 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads Slightly Declined, and the Spreads of Mixed - Ownership Real Estate Bonds Significantly Decreased - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined overall. Central and state - owned enterprise real estate bond spreads remained flat, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped 15BP due to events such as state - owned enterprise purchases, and private real estate bond spreads rose 7BP [17]. - The spreads of AAA and AA+ coal bonds decreased by 1BP respectively, and the spreads of AA - rated coal bonds remained flat. The spreads of AAA - rated steel bonds remained flat, and the spreads of AA+ - rated steel bonds decreased by 1BP. The spreads of all grades of chemical bonds decreased by 1BP [17]. 3.4 Two - Yong Bonds Performed Weakly with Rising Spreads, and the Yields of 3 - 5 - Year High - Grade Varieties Significantly Increased - This week, Two - Yong bonds performed weakly with rising spreads, and overall they performed worse than ordinary credit bond varieties. The yields of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties significantly increased [29]. - For 1Y bonds, the yields of all grades of secondary capital bonds increased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads compressed by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all grades of perpetual bonds increased by 4BP, and the spreads increased by 1BP [29]. 3.5 The Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Increased, and the Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Narrowed - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA - rated 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 2.76BP to 10.17BP, at the 15.70% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of industrial AAA - rated 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.01BP to 11.83BP, at the 23.40% quantile since 2015 [31]. - The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decreased by 1.82BP to 3.34BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 3.40BP to 7.51BP, at the 3.67% quantile [31]. 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term bill and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated by subtracting the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation) from the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of individual bonds, and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by the arithmetic average method [38].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 14 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实矛盾累积，钢矿弱势下行 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.82%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢需求如期走弱，而供应相对趋稳，淡季基本面持续走弱，库存大 幅增加，钢价继续承压运行，相对利好则是近期成本抬升明显，下行空 间受限，利空情绪主导下预计钢价呈现震荡走弱态势，关注需求表现情 况。 热轧卷板：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.18 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial futures market, the market sentiment is positive, and the profit - making effect persists. The long position in the CSI 300 Index IF2509 can be held. In the commodity futures market, lithium carbonate and polysilicon are likely to rise in the short term[1]. - The stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August under the influence of policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity. The bond market is in a volatile pattern with potential upward pressure and significant long - term risks[1]. - Gold prices have strong support, and silver maintains a long - position pattern. Copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile pattern. Lithium carbonate is bullish, and polysilicon has support at the bottom[1][4][5][6]. - Steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are in a volatile pattern. Coke and coking coal are cautiously bullish. Soda ash and float glass are in a volatile pattern[5][6][7]. - Crude oil is in a short - term bearish pattern. Methanol, polyolefin are in a volatile pattern. Cotton is in a bearish pattern, and rubber is cautiously bullish[9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures 3.1.1 Stock Index - The market sentiment is positive, with the ChiNext Index leading the rise on Monday. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded to 1.85 trillion yuan. Industries such as computers, communications, and electronics led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined slightly. The stock index futures rose with the spot market, and the basis discount of each contract was repaired. With policy support, the recovery of corporate earnings from the bottom, and abundant liquidity, the stock index may continue to fluctuate upward in August. It is advisable to hold a long - position mindset and pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the effect of anti - involution policies[1]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is weak, and the long - end pressure continues. The inflation performance is average, the real estate expectation has improved, and the anti - involution expectation persists. The overseas trade relationship is still volatile, and there is uncertainty. The central bank has a net withdrawal in the open market, and the cost of funds has slightly recovered but remains at a low level. The bond market has support under the liquidity support, but the potential positive factors are limited, and the negative factors are increasing. The market sentiment is fragile, and the valuation is high, so there is still pressure above the bond futures, especially for long - term bonds[1]. 3.2 Commodity Futures 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the risk of stagflation in the United States, interest - rate cut expectations, the debt cycle, and the US dollar credit. Although the gold price encountered resistance and pulled back when testing the pressure level again, the support below is still strong. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to continue holding the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold the long - position of silver[4]. 3.2.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by factors such as general inflation performance, improved real estate expectations, and volatile overseas trade relations. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strong, but the inflation impact persists, and the US dollar index has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with some copper mines in Chile resuming production while others near the accident site remaining closed. The domestic demand in the peak season has optimistic expectations, but the US copper import demand may be weak. The copper price may continue to fluctuate[4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The macro - environment is similar to that of copper. The alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and the inventory of Shanghai aluminum is accumulating, but the seasonal pressure may gradually decrease. The supply increase is limited due to capacity constraints. The aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a volatile range[4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, the price of nickel iron has strengthened slightly, the intermediate product capacity is still sufficient, and the refined nickel is in a clear surplus with high inventory. Affected by positive factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce, and the promotion of anti - involution policies, the nickel price has rebounded from a low level, but the surplus fundamentals limit the upside. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the short - option strategy is relatively advantageous[6]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo Mine has boosted market sentiment, and the lithium price is likely to rise in the short term. However, the probability of all 7 lithium - related mines in Yichun shutting down is low, and the high - price lithium salt has stimulated the production enthusiasm of the smelting sector, leading to the accumulation of inventory. Attention should be paid to the impact of the shutdown cycle of the Jiaxiaowo Mine on market expectations[6]. - **Silicon - related Products**: The supply of industrial silicon has recovered, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are relatively balanced in the short term. The price of polysilicon has been pushed up by downstream replenishment inquiries, and the market has support at the bottom[6]. - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors such as the US sanctions on India for importing Russian oil and China's reduction in Saudi crude oil purchases have affected the market. The market's expectation of oil prices has further cooled, and the oil price is likely to be weak in the short term under the background of increasing supply[9]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in coastal areas is increasing, with the expected increase in imports in August and September. If the coastal methanol can flow inland, the supply pressure will be relieved, and the futures price is expected not to fall below 2300 yuan/ton. The price will rise again as the import volume decreases in the fourth quarter[9]. - **Polyolefin**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs may be extended, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the restart of some maintenance devices and the launch of new devices, which limits the significant rise of prices[9]. 3.2.4 Steel and Minerals - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. The support of coking coal prices and the high enthusiasm of blast - furnace production support the steel - making cost. The rebar futures price is expected to run in the range of [3150, 3300]. It is recommended to hold the short - position of out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 rebar[5][6][7]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is strong, but the marginal pressure has emerged. The anti - involution long - term logic still holds. After the end of the phased environmental protection restrictions, the steel mills will actively resume production, which is conducive to supporting the price of furnace materials and the steel - making cost. The hot - rolled coil futures price is expected to run in the range of [3350, 3500]. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy, and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on 01 iron ore/coking coal and shorting 01 hot - rolled coils[5][6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of imported iron ore has weakened marginally, but the current steel mills' profits are good. Once the phased environmental protection restrictions end, the steel mills will increase production, which will support the demand for iron ore. The price of the 01 - contract of iron ore is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the arbitrage opportunity of going long on iron ore and shorting rebar in the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.5 Coke and Coking Coal - **Coking Coal**: The self - inspection of coal mine production by the Energy Bureau will last until August 15, and there is an expectation of production suspension for over - producing mines. The supply of raw coal is expected to be tightened, which supports the coal price. However, the enthusiasm for pithead auction quotes has weakened marginally, and there is a risk of short - term over - rise in the expectation - driven market[7]. - **Coke**: The spot price of coke has increased for the sixth time, and the coking profit has continued to repair. However, most coking enterprises are still at the break - even point, and the enthusiasm for further increasing production is limited. The in - furnace demand for coke still has support, but there is an expectation of production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in the middle and late of this month, and the spot market may stabilize[7]. 3.2.6 Soda Ash and Float Glass - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental driving force is downward, with the daily production of soda ash rising to 108,500 tons, and the demand being weaker than the supply. The alkali plant's inventory has continued to accumulate. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and the short - term price decline has slowed down. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 09 - contract opportunistically[7]. - **Float Glass**: The rigid demand for glass has not improved significantly, and the speculative demand is weak. The production - sales ratio of float glass in four major regions has been below 100% since August, and the glass factory is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. However, the anti - involution long - term logic still holds, and there is an expectation of policy support. It is recommended to exit the short - position of the 9 - contract opportunistically and be relatively optimistic about the 01 - contract[7]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new cotton in the main producing areas is growing well, and the probability of a bumper harvest has increased. However, the downstream replenishment is cautious, and the market expectation is pessimistic. Whether the开机率 can return to a high level in the peak season from September to October remains to be seen. The cotton price is in a weak trend[9]. - **Rubber**: The inventory in Qingdao bonded areas and general trade has decreased rapidly, the tire enterprises' production is active, and the terminal automobile market consumption is stimulated by policies. The demand expectation is turning positive. Although the main producing countries are in the traditional production - increasing season, the raw material output rate is lower than expected, and the natural rubber fundamentals are continuously improving. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile rebound pattern this week[9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a bullish bias. Macroeconomically, the joint statement of the China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm announced a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff starting from August 12, 2025. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased significantly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.49%. Inventories continued to rise, and the apparent demand turned from a decline to an increase. Overall, the macro - expectation is positive, the production restrictions in Tangshan boosted market sentiment, and the strong rise in coal prices provided cost support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF is rising above DEA. The operation strategy is to be bullish in a fluctuating market, while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,258 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the position volume was 1,605,388 lots, down 7,237 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 75,900 lots, up 4,267 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 78 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 97,654 tons, up 1,197 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 226 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,508 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,360 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 162 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 3,120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 13,712.27 million tons, up 54.37 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 44.36 million tons, down 1.92 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 619.30 million tons, down 7.48 million tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 115.36 million tons, up 4.34 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The rebar output of sample steel mills was 221.18 million tons, up 10.12 million tons. The rebar capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills was 48.49%, up 2.22%. The rebar inventory in sample steel mills was 168.20 million tons, up 6.05 million tons. The social rebar inventory in 35 cities was 388.48 million tons, up 4.34 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 71.88%, up 2.09%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,688 million tons, up 30 million tons. The monthly net steel export volume was 938.40 million tons, up 17.40 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00%. The cumulative floor area under construction was 633,321 million square meters, down 8,302 million square meters. The cumulative floor area of newly started buildings was 30,364 million square meters, down 7,181 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 40,821.00 million square meters, up 443.00 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans." From September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, residents using personal consumption loans (excluding credit card business) for actual consumption, and the loan - issuing institutions can identify relevant consumption transaction information, can enjoy the interest subsidy policy as stipulated. The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and seven other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy for Loans to Service Industry Business Entities." Eligible loans issued by the handling banks to service industry business entities in eight consumption fields, including catering and accommodation, health, elderly care, childcare, housekeeping, cultural and entertainment, tourism, and sports, can enjoy the interest subsidy policy [2].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1][6] - The rise in service prices by 0.6% in July contributed approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel, with significant price hikes in airfare, tourism, and accommodation [4][5] - Various local governments have implemented consumption-boosting measures, enhancing consumer activity during the summer season, which has positively impacted demand and prices in related sectors [4][5] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% in July, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating an improvement in market competition and pricing stability in certain industries [7][8] - The central government's emphasis on regulating low-price competition and promoting product quality is expected to further optimize market conditions, particularly in industries like coal, steel, and lithium batteries [8][9] - The July data showed a narrowing of price declines in key sectors, suggesting a potential stabilization in pricing dynamics as supply and demand conditions improve [8][9] Group 3 - The ongoing macroeconomic policies are fostering new growth drivers in various industries, leading to improved supply-demand relationships and positive price changes [9][10] - Traditional industries are upgrading while emerging sectors are expanding, contributing to price increases in manufacturing, such as a 3.0% rise in aircraft manufacturing prices [10] - Consumer preferences are shifting towards quality upgrades, with significant increases in sales of advanced home appliances, indicating a trend towards improved consumption patterns [11][13]

Market Overview - On August 8, the A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations throughout the day, with the three major indices showing slight declines [2] - In terms of sectors, local stocks in Xinjiang surged in the afternoon, with Xiyu Tourism hitting a 20% limit up, alongside 11 other stocks including Bayi Steel, Tianshan Shares, Xinjiang Communications Construction, Xinjiang Torch, and Western Construction also reaching their limit up [2] Company Developments - Recently, a new company named Xinjiang Tibet Railway Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 95 billion RMB [2] - The company is fully owned by China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. [2]