| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 周敏波 2025年9月22日 | | | | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3250 | 3240 | 10 | 78 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | O | 38 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3390 | -20 | 198 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3232 | 3204 | 28 | 18 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3078 | 3054 | 24 | 172 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3172 | 3147 | જેટ | 78 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3410 | 3400 | 10 | 36 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3320 | 3330 | -10 | -54 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of finished steel products showed a slight differentiation last week, with rebar performing slightly better than hot-rolled coils. Steel prices rebounded last week, and the main trading logic remains the industry's fundamentals. Currently, the weak situation of downstream demand has not improved, and prices are moving in a low position [1][2] - The raw material market is expected to operate at a low level [2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section (Based on the General Logic) Steel Production Capacity Utilization - The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35% last week, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.29 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,700 tons and a year-on-year increase of 171,900 tons [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.91 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 14.68 percentage points. The average operating rate was 70.63%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.29 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 9.59 percentage points [2] Steel Market Conditions - Finished steel products rebounded last week, and steel prices closed positively on the weekly line driven by raw materials. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, in line with market expectations, and the macro-driving force weakened [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils showed differentiation last week. Rebar production and inventory decreased slightly, and apparent demand increased; hot-rolled coil production and inventory increased slightly, and performance declined, resulting in rebar being stronger than hot-rolled coils in terms of price trends [2] Raw Material Market - The raw material market is expected to operate at a low level [2] Factors to Watch - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be focused on in the later stage [3]

Group 1: Environmental Performance and Innovations - Hebei Wuan Steel Group has achieved ultra-low emissions across its production chain, with real-time monitoring from 1,766 environmental monitoring points [1] - The company was rated as an A-level enterprise for environmental performance by the end of 2023, indicating the highest level of environmental governance in the industry [2] - The city of Wuan has seen a transformation in its steel, coking, and cement industries, with 84% of key industry enterprises achieving A-level ratings [2] Group 2: Emission Reduction Efforts - Wuan has accelerated the elimination of inefficient production capacity, shutting down all small blast furnaces and converters [2] - The transition from long-process to low-carbon, energy-saving short-process steelmaking has resulted in a reduction of 1.6 tons of CO2 and 75% of pollutant emissions per ton of steel produced [2] - New technologies, such as carbon monoxide catalytic oxidation, have been implemented, leading to a daily reduction of approximately 51 tons of emissions [3] Group 3: Air Quality Improvements - In 2024, the average concentration of carbon monoxide in Wuan was 2.1 mg/m³, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year [4] - PM2.5 concentration in Wuan dropped to 37.2 µg/m³ in the first half of 2025, marking a 31.27% decrease compared to the previous year [4] - The number of days with good air quality reached 133, an increase of 30 days year-on-year, achieving the best air quality levels recorded [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that both coking coal and coke prices have surged over 4% due to multiple factors, including production halts and rising expectations of demand during the traditional peak season [1][2] - A coal mine in Shanxi province has halted production, with a capacity of 1.2 million tons and a normal daily output of approximately 3,000 tons, contributing to supply concerns [1] - The recovery in iron and steel production has led to increased demand for coking coal and coke, with the national coking plant operating rate reaching 75.92%, the highest level this year [1][2] Group 2 - Despite a slight recovery in the coal production, coal inventories have decreased by 13.56 million tons to 254.52 million tons, driven by rapid recovery in downstream steel production [2] - The overall demand for steel remains weak, with apparent consumption of the five major steel products at 8.43 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 459,400 tons [2] - The profitability of steel mills is under pressure due to high production and low demand, with current profits for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils near breakeven [2][3] Group 3 - The market for finished steel products has not recovered as quickly as expected, with overall demand still insufficient despite some recovery in export volumes [3] - Coking plants have reduced their inventory levels to 8.84 million tons, with coking coal inventory days dropping below 10 days, indicating a shift towards consumption rather than replenishment [3] - Future price trends for coking coal may not be overly pessimistic, as potential supply reduction policies and macroeconomic factors could provide support [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing an upward trend, with the average stock price approaching previous highs, while the number of low-priced stocks continues to decline, indicating a shift towards higher-priced stocks in the market [2][12][13]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of September 15, the average stock price in the A-share market reached 26.13 yuan, nearing the previous high of 26.27 yuan recorded on September 1 [2]. - The number of stocks priced below 2 yuan has decreased to 24, a significant drop of nearly 27% compared to the end of last year [12]. - The number of stocks priced below 5 yuan has also reduced to 525, reflecting a decline of approximately 30% since the end of last year [2]. Group 2: Low-Priced Stocks Analysis - Among the stocks priced below 2 yuan, the real estate and steel sectors have the highest proportions, accounting for 21% and 13% respectively [4]. - Compared to the end of last year, the steel and real estate sectors still dominate the low-priced stock category, with respective proportions of 18% and 15% [7]. - A total of 21 stocks have successfully risen above the 2 yuan mark since the end of last year, with notable increases in stocks like Jishi Media and ST Xintong, which saw price increases of 228.34% and 233.52% respectively [11]. Group 3: High-Priced Stocks Expansion - The number of stocks priced above 50 yuan has increased to 570, a growth of nearly 78.7% from 324 stocks at the end of last year [13]. - The number of stocks priced over 100 yuan has reached 142, marking a growth of approximately 97.2% [13]. - The electronics sector has the highest average stock price among the 31 major sectors, with an average exceeding 50 yuan, while sectors like real estate and steel have lower average prices, failing to reach 10 yuan [13].

Group 1 - The event marks the first employee swimming competition held at the newly constructed South Steel Sports Park swimming pool [2] - The competition includes six events, featuring men's and women's 50-meter freestyle and four fun events, attracting over 100 employees from various units of South Steel [2] - The participation reflects the positive and active sports culture among the employees of South Steel [2]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - August non-farm employment data was weaker than expected, with previous months' employment figures revised down[1] - The unemployment rate remains stable due to a significant increase in household survey employment, but the job market shows signs of prolonged weakness[1] - Inflation indicators show a mild increase in overall CPI, but the super core CPI excluding housing and used cars has slowed down, raising concerns[1] Group 2: European Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its current policy stance, showing confidence in future inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone[1] - Market expectations for another rate cut before mid-2026 have dropped below 50%[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - August export growth declined year-on-year due to a high base effect from last year, with exports to non-US countries outperforming those to the US[4] - PPI year-on-year growth has narrowed due to low base effects and "anti-involution" policies, while CPI growth is significantly impacted by food and energy prices[4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to strengthen domestic circulation and enhance fiscal-financial coordination[4] Group 4: Market Trends and Prices - Real estate transactions remain sluggish, while wholesale prices of agricultural products have rebounded[4] - Steel prices are stable, cement prices have slightly increased, and coal prices have decreased, while non-ferrous metal prices have risen[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The terminal demand for rebar is sluggish, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. The RB2601 contract may fluctuate within the range of 3080 - 3160. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the opportunity arises [2][9][60] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton (-16), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan/ton (-10). Rebar production continued to decline to 211.93 million tons (-6.75), with a year - on - year increase of 24.01 million tons. Apparent demand decreased again to 18.07 million tons (-4), a year - on - year decrease of 51.85 million tons. Total rebar inventory was 653.86 million tons (+13.86), with a year - on - year increase of 160.23 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [7] Market Outlook - **Macro aspect**: Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far less than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on about 1400 items from countries without free - trade agreements. Domestically, multiple ministries and commissions will promote capacity management in key industries and implement policies to support employment and foreign trade. - **Supply - demand aspect**: Rebar weekly production continued to decline, capacity utilization was 46.46%, and the EAF steel operating rate declined again. Terminal demand was weak, inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks, and apparent demand decreased. - **Cost aspect**: Iron ore was firm due to lower shipments and a significant increase in hot metal. Coke spot prices were lowered, but coking coal futures prices were oscillating strongly. - **Technical aspect**: The RB2601 contract oscillated downward, with a bearish arrangement of daily K - line moving averages. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were below the 0 - axis, and the green bars slightly shrank. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro and industrial aspects, the RB2601 contract may fluctuate within the 3080 - 3160 range. Pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the RB2601 contract oscillated weakly. The RB2510 contract was weaker than the RB2601 contract, and the spread on the 12th was -92 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [15] Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar warehouse receipt volume was 252,249 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,518 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 222,524 lots, an increase of 38,709 lots from the previous week [22] Spot Price and Basis - On September 12, the spot price of Hangzhou's Grade III rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3269 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 12th was 123 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [28] 3. Upstream Market Furnace Charge Prices - This week, the spot price of iron ore increased, while the spot price of coke decreased. On September 12, the price of 61% Australian MacPhearson ore at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [33] Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From September 1st to 7th, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China decreased. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons week - on - week to 14,456,120 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 140,600 tons [37] Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.58%, an increase of 2.97%. Coke daily output was 533,000 tons, an increase of 20,900 tons [41] 4. Industry Situation Supply Side - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, steel exports decreased, and imports increased [45] - Rebar weekly production decreased. On September 11, the weekly production of 139 building material production enterprises was 21.193 million tons, a decrease of 675,000 tons from the previous week [48] - The EAF steel operating rate decreased. On September 12, the average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 71.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29 percentage points [51] - Rebar total inventory increased. On September 11, the in - plant inventory of 137 building material production enterprises was 1.6663 million tons, a decrease of 47,100 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory of 35 cities was 4.8723 million tons, an increase of 185,700 tons from the previous week [54] Demand Side - From January to July 2025, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year [57] 5. Options Market - Currently, the steel market is relatively weak, but as building materials enter the peak season, downstream may have restocking demand. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the opportunity arises [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coils is expected to be oscillating upward, with strong technical support around 3300. The recommended trading range is 3300 - 3400. The macro - environment has the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rising and tariff disturbances affecting market sentiment. The industry shows that hot - rolled coil production has increased, terminal demand is resilient, inventory has declined, and apparent demand has rebounded. Cost support has strengthened due to increased iron - water production boosting furnace - charge demand [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3364 yuan/ton (+24), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coils was 3410 yuan/ton (+10). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 325.14 million tons (+10.9), a year - on - year increase of 22.97 million tons. - Apparent demand rose to 326.16 million tons (+20.8), a year - on - year increase of 12.22 million tons. - Factory inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. Total inventory was 373.32 million tons (-1.02), a year - on - year decrease of 57.89 million tons. - The steel - mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a 0.87 - percentage - point decrease from last week but a 54.11 - percentage - point increase from last year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the weak US non - farm payrolls in August increased the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation, and Mexico planned to raise import tariffs. Domestically, multiple ministries announced work priorities to promote capacity management and support employment and foreign trade. - **Supply - and - demand aspect**: Weekly hot - rolled coil production increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%. Terminal demand recovered, inventory slightly declined, and apparent demand increased. - **Cost aspect**: Iron ore prices were firm due to lower shipments and increased iron - water production. Coke prices were cut, but coking - coal futures were oscillating upward due to mine shutdowns and increased furnace - charge demand. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2601 contract was oscillating upward, with strong support around 3300 and trading above MA10/MA20. The MACD showed a possible golden cross below the 0 - axis with shrinking green bars. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro and industrial situations, the HC2601 contract is recommended to be traded in the 3300 - 3400 range, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures price**: The HC2601 contract was oscillating upward this week. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of 31 yuan/ton on the 12th, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipts and positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts increased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased. On September 12, the warehouse - receipt volume was 59441 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34382 tons, and the net short position was 102712 contracts, a decrease of 10791 contracts from last week [21]. - **Spot price**: Spot prices increased. On September 12, the spot price of Shanghai 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils was 3410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3434 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton. The basis was 46 yuan/ton on the 12th, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [25]. 3.3. Upstream Market Conditions - **Raw - material prices**: On September 12, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane ore at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [31]. - **Arrival volume**: From September 1 - 7, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased. The global iron - ore shipment volume was 2756.2 million tons, a decrease of 800.6 million tons. The Australia - Brazil iron - ore shipment volume was 2329.6 million tons, a decrease of 572.5 million tons [35]. - **Port inventory**: This week, iron - ore port inventory increased. The total inventory at 47 ports was 14456.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.40 million tons. The daily average port - clearance volume was 344.39 million tons, an increase of 14.06 million tons. On September 11, the steel - billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 128.95 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.58 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 11.82 million tons [39]. - **Coking - plant situation**: This week, the coking - plant capacity utilization rate increased to 75.58% (+2.97%), and coke inventory increased to 43.91 million tons (+3.2). The total coking - coal inventory decreased to 752.00 million tons (-28.95), and the available coking - coal days decreased to 10.6 days (-0.86) [43]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply Side - **Steel production and trade**: In July 2025, national crude - steel production was 7966 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude - steel production was 59447 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, steel exports were 951 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons, and imports were 50.0 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons [46]. - **Blast - furnace operation**: On September 11, the weekly hot - rolled coil production of 37 enterprises was 325.14 million tons, an increase of 10.9 million tons from last week. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.83% on September 12, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points, and the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points [48][50]. - **Inventory**: On September 11, the in - factory hot - rolled coil inventory was 80.88 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons from last week, and the social inventory in 33 cities was 292.44 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 million tons. The total inventory was 373.32 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons [55]. 3.4.2. Demand Side - **Automobile and home - appliance industries**: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to July, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 18345.54 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; household refrigerators were 5963.15 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; and household washing machines were 6812.82 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% [58].

Market Overview - The market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high during the session, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index showed slight declines [1][10] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 151.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Northern Copper and Shengda Resources hitting the daily limit [1][15] - The chip sector was active, with companies such as Chipone Technology and Demingli reaching their daily limits [2][22] - The real estate sector showed a rebound, with stocks like Rongsheng Development and Suning Universal also hitting the daily limit [1][5] Individual Stock Highlights - A total of 50 stocks hit the daily limit, with a sealing rate of 87%, and 17 stocks achieved consecutive limit-ups [1] - Notable stocks included Suning Universal and Qingshan Paper, both achieving four consecutive limit-ups [1][14] - In the storage chip sector, Demingli and other companies saw significant price increases, with Demingli rising by 10% [4][23] Global Metal Prices - On September 11, London Metal Exchange (LME) prices for aluminum, zinc, nickel, copper, lead, and tin all increased, with aluminum rising by 2.06% to $2,679.00 per ton [3][15] - Analysts attribute the rise in metal prices to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to increased demand for hard assets [3] Real Estate Policy Changes - Following adjustments in housing purchase restrictions in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the Shenzhen real estate market has also seen positive changes, with increased online consultations and property viewings [5][13] Semiconductor Developments - Kioxia announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to develop a new type of SSD that is nearly 100 times faster than traditional SSDs [5][22] - The storage chip sector is expected to remain active, with companies like Micron Technology anticipated to provide strong earnings guidance in their upcoming financial reports [4][22]