Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The smelters' strong demand for zinc ore may lead to a further decline in TC. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the imported ore TC has started to fall. The domestic supply pressure remains, but the smelting profit is compressed. If the TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. The export window is fully open, but the uncertainty of LME far - month contract delivery restrains the export enthusiasm, and it's difficult for overseas inventories to grow. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - environment remains favorable. [4] Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $212.89/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,400 yuan/ton and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 128,753 lots, and the open interest was 120,693 lots. The highest price was 22,440 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,290 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,500 tons, up 1,400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,250 tons, down 1,800 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Copper Core View - Affected by the improved macro - atmosphere and strong medium - term fundamentals, copper prices are expected to continue rising next week [7]. Market Review - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (84410, 87860), with total positions rising 7% to 584,000 lots. LME copper operated in the range of (10536.5, 10969). The net long position of funds decreased by about 3% to 57,476 lots, and the commercial net short position decreased by 7% to 73,093 lots [7]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. SMM seven - port copper concentrate inventory decreased. In September, the import of copper concentrates and their ores decreased month - on - month. Domestic cold - material processing fees fell again. In September, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [10][11][13]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased slightly, while that of refined copper rods decreased. The operating rate of wire and cable and enameled wire increased slightly, but the overall consumption was lackluster [15][16]. Spot - Domestic copper stocks decreased by 0.08 to 274,000 tons, and bonded area stocks decreased by 0.49 to 92,800 tons. The LME + COMEX market increased stocks by 1,439 tons to 450,000 tons [17]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Due to short - term supply - demand boom, continuous inventory reduction, and unresolved supply - side disturbances, lithium carbonate futures are expected to move up [27]. Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures rose, with the main contract operating in the range of (75340, 80880), and total positions increasing by 7.5% to 812,000 lots. Spot prices also moved up, but the trading was dull [26]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Lithium ore prices moved up, and the losses of salt plants increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high, and the production costs of purchasing lithium spodumene and lepidolite increased [30][31]. Demand - The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and battery cells all increased. The domestic power market is in the peak season, and the demand for materials is supported [32][33][34]. Spot - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons [36][37]. Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with a low - buying strategy recommended [46]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai aluminum rose unilaterally, hitting a new high for the year. The overseas market is worried about tariff risks. The demand side has gradually fulfilled its expectations in the peak season, but the downstream performance lacks highlights [42]. Fundamental Changes Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tight, and prices in some regions have risen slightly. Imported bauxite prices are weak [47][48]. Alumina - Alumina prices have initially stabilized, with the bottom slightly rising. The import window remains open [50][51]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The operating capacity remains unchanged. The export of aluminum profiles has slightly recovered, and the import window of aluminum ingots remains closed. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined slightly, and aluminum ingot stocks have decreased slightly [56][64][66]. Group 5: Nickel Core View - Nickel prices remain in a range - bound pattern, with support at the 120,000 level. Pay attention to overseas market changes and Indonesian policy risks [80]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai nickel was in a narrow - range shock in the first four days and rose on Friday, but it has not broken out of the range - bound pattern. The futures market maintains a contango structure, and the import window remains closed [75][80]. Fundamental Changes Nickel Ore - The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores remained stable this week. Some smelters have started procurement plans in advance [81]. Ferronickel - Ferronickel prices continued to fall this week, and it is expected that the downward trend will continue [80]. Electrolytic Nickel - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing, but the output is difficult to increase significantly in the short term [92][93]. Nickel Sulfate - Nickel salt prices remained stable this week. It is expected that the supply of nickel sulfate will still increase slightly in October [96][98]. Stainless Steel - The inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased slightly this week, but it is expected that the inventory will not decline significantly [103]. Group 6: Zinc Core View - Zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. The supply of zinc ingots has increased, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the implementation of export volume and gradually enter the market for reverse arbitrage [106]. Market Review - LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the risk of structural shortage has increased. Shanghai zinc rose oscillatingly. The import window has been deeply closed since July, and there is a small amount of exports [105]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Domestic zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. In October, the overall output of refined zinc increased month - on - month. The import window remains closed, and the export window is open [115][116]. Demand - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide all decreased slightly, and the overall demand has declined [117][118]. Spot - Domestic zinc stocks decreased to 162,100 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased to below 40,000 tons [119].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the zinc concentrate processing fee has been rising due to the increase in zinc concentrate supply at home and abroad. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has declined after rising, showing a divergence from the import fee. In the fourth quarter, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee may continue to fall, while the import fee may be raised. The refined zinc output is expected to remain high, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee and Zinc Price (1) Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - The zinc concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) is the fee paid by mineral producers or traders to smelters for processing zinc concentrate into refined zinc. Overseas and domestic markets have different ways of determining the processing fee. The rise and fall of the processing fee are affected by factors such as zinc ore production supply, smelting demand, the ratio of Shanghai and London zinc prices, and the profits of mines and smelters [5][6]. (2) The Relationship between Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee and Zinc Price - In the long - term, there is a significant negative relationship between the zinc concentrate processing fee and the zinc price. The change in the processing fee can have an important impact on the zinc price trend [7][10]. II. Analysis of the Trend of Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee (1) Significant Increase in Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - In 2025, both domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have increased significantly. The reasons are the supply of zinc concentrate turning from tight to relatively loose due to the resumption of production and new capacity release of mines at home and abroad, and the sufficient raw material inventory and strong price - holding sentiment of domestic smelters [11][13][16]. (2) Divergence between Domestic and Imported Zinc Ore Processing Fees - Since the second half of the year, the domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have shown a significant divergence. The import fee has continued to rise, while the domestic fee has fallen after reaching a high. The reasons are the import loss of zinc concentrate, the preference for domestic zinc ore by smelters, and the expected decrease in domestic zinc ore production in the fourth quarter [18][21]. (3) Outlook on the Trend of Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee in the Fourth Quarter - In the fourth quarter, the supply of zinc concentrate is expected to remain loose, but the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee may continue to fall due to the reduction of supply from northern mines and the winter storage demand of smelters. The import processing fee may be under pressure to adjust [22]. III. Outlook on the Zinc Price Trend in the Fourth Quarter - Currently, the domestic and overseas zinc markets are divided. Domestic refined zinc output is high, and the inventory is increasing, resulting in a weak domestic zinc price. In the fourth quarter, the refined zinc output is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [23][24][26].

Industry Summary - The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc market is experiencing one of the most severe squeezes in decades, with traders competing for dwindling inventories, pushing spot zinc prices to their highest premium levels in over 20 years [1] - The premium of spot zinc over three-month contracts has surged to $323 per ton, marking the highest level since at least 1997, indicating strong spot demand exceeding immediate supply [1] - Despite ongoing supply pressures domestically, fundamental factors are showing marginal changes, with macro data trending upwards, suggesting a potential halt in zinc price declines [1] - There are emerging risks in overseas warehouse receipts, and the opening of zinc ingot export windows may lead to lower-than-expected domestic inventory accumulation, which could be a bullish factor if seasonal inventory declines occur [1] - The development of new energy and infrastructure investments is driving actual consumption, with estimated zinc consumption growth potentially reaching 5%, further supported by the integration of smelting and zinc alloy production [1] Company Summary - Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd. focuses on the mining, selection, and smelting of lead and zinc ores, with a zinc metal output of approximately 1.1 million tons [2] - Weiling Co., Ltd. acquired a 74.3% stake in Jiayu Mining in May, which holds a mining license for a 30,000-ton annual production capacity of various non-ferrous metals, including tungsten, tin, lead, and zinc [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00 - 4.25%, with dovish signals. Various assets fluctuated sharply. Domestically, A - shares oscillated and rose, expected to remain high - oscillating. The bond market was in a sensitive period, with limited configuration space [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold and silver prices pulled back and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices retreated due to the Fed's weaker - than - expected interest - rate cut and are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices adjusted. The fundamentals remained stable, and the adjustment was expected to be limited [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize and repair after the interest - rate cut, but the upward space depends on the arrival of the consumption peak season [10][11]. - Lead prices oscillated horizontally due to the intertwining of long and short factors [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the market digests the Fed's signals [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate strongly with the improvement of demand expectations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated, waiting for policy implementation to boost prices [17]. - Nickel prices oscillated. The macro boost was limited, but the relatively loose monetary environment was still positive [18][19]. - Oil prices oscillated due to fluctuating geopolitical risks and limited impact from the Fed's interest - rate cut [20][21]. - For soda ash and glass, attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the glass - soda ash price difference, while being vigilant about the pressure of high soda ash inventory [22]. - Steel prices oscillated after the Fed's interest - rate cut, with limited changes in fundamentals [23][24]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded, with strong spot prices and expected support from restocking [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and declined, influenced by Sino - US news, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and uncertain US biodiesel policies [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of main futures markets for various metals, including contract names, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interest, and price units [30]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, on September 17, SHFE copper and LME copper prices both declined, with changes in inventory, spot quotes, and other data [31]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel prices fell on September 17, and LME nickel prices remained unchanged, with corresponding changes in inventory and other data [31]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc prices rose slightly on September 17, and LME zinc prices fell, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For lead, SHFE lead prices rose on September 17, and LME lead prices fell slightly, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum prices fell on September 17, and LME aluminum prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina prices fell on September 17, and the national average spot price also decreased [34]. - For tin, SHFE tin prices fell on September 17, and LME tin prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For precious metals, there were changes in prices, inventory, and other data of gold and silver in different markets on September 17 [34]. - For other varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and agricultural products, there were corresponding price and data changes on September 17 [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - Zinc concentrate resources are crucial for societal development, providing a buffer during resource supply disruptions, with China being the largest producer and consumer of zinc concentrate globally [1][2]. Zinc Concentrate Industry Definition and Characteristics - Zinc concentrate is produced from lead-zinc ore or zinc-containing ore through processes like crushing, ball milling, and froth flotation, achieving a high zinc content of 40-55% [2]. Current Development Status of the Zinc Concentrate Industry - In 2023, China's zinc concentrate production was 2.965 million tons, with a projected production of approximately 2.936 million tons in 2024 and 788,300 tons from January to May 2025 [1][2]. Zinc Concentrate Price Trends - Domestic zinc prices are expected to rise in a stepwise manner in 2024, with an average price of 23,398 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,765 yuan/ton or 8.16% compared to 2023 [4]. Zinc Concentrate Industry Import Trade - Due to high demand from infrastructure and galvanizing industries, China is projected to import 4.0964 million tons of zinc concentrate in 2024, with a significant increase in imports in the first half of 2025 [6]. Zinc Concentrate Industry Competitive Landscape - Major companies in China's zinc concentrate sector include Chihong Zn & Ge, Zhongjin Lingnan, Western Mining, and others, with abundant zinc resources distributed across the country [7][9]. Development Trends in the Zinc Concentrate Industry - China aims to increase its self-sufficiency rate of zinc to 65% by 2025, with new zinc resources discovered in regions like Yunnan and Guizhou, providing a resource guarantee for domestic production [10].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index leading the decline. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.51 trillion yuan, a decrease of 135 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,400 stocks fell, indicating a broad market downturn [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.71% [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly in the liquor sector, showed signs of rebound, with companies like Jiu Gui Jiu achieving two consecutive trading limits. Other liquor stocks such as She De Jiu Ye and Yi Li Te saw increases of over 5% [4][1] - The non-ferrous metal sector also performed well, with stocks like Luo Ping Zinc Electric and Dongfang Zirconium hitting their daily limits. The AI glasses concept stocks were active, with Ke Sen Technology achieving four consecutive trading limits [1][8] - High-position stocks experienced significant declines, with multiple stocks hitting their daily limits [1] Individual Stock Highlights - A total of 53 stocks hit their daily limits (excluding ST and newly listed stocks), with a limit-up rate of 68%. Notable stocks included Ke Sen Technology with four consecutive limits and Yuan Lin Shares with three consecutive limits [1] - In the consumer sector, Jiu Gui Jiu and other liquor stocks showed strong performance, indicating a potential recovery in consumer sentiment [4][1] Investment Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the liquor industry is rapidly bottoming out, with leading companies likely to benefit from channel adjustments and market expansion if consumer demand improves [4] - The tourism and hotel sectors also showed strength, with stocks like Xi'an Catering and Quanjude hitting their daily limits, indicating a recovery in travel-related consumption [4] AI and Technology Developments - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission announced an implementation plan to accelerate the development of "AI + manufacturing," which includes promoting AI glasses and other smart consumer terminals [15][23] - AI glasses concept stocks are gaining traction, with companies like Xingxing Technology and Sanan Optoelectronics seeing significant price increases [12][24]

Group 1 - The metal zinc sector experienced a decline of 1.74%, ranking among the top losers in the concept sector, with *ST Zhengping hitting the limit down, and Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold also showing significant declines [1] - The main funds in the metal zinc sector saw a net outflow of 955 million yuan, with 29 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 6 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Xingye Yinxin, with a net outflow of 131 million yuan, followed by Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Huayu Mining, and Hunan Silver, with net outflows of 123 million yuan, 81.92 million yuan, and 78.92 million yuan respectively [2] Group 2 - The top gainers in the market included PCB concept (+4.33%), military equipment restructuring concept (+4.08%), and PET copper foil (+4.03%), while the coal concept and metal zinc were among the top losers [2] - The net inflow of main funds was observed in stocks such as Zijin Mining, Hongda Co., and Western Mining, with net inflows of 47.60 million yuan, 24.09 million yuan, and 17.70 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The trading volume and turnover rates varied among the stocks, with notable outflows from stocks like Xingye Yinxin (-2.67%, turnover rate 3.41%) and Zhejiang Fu Holdings (-6.00%, turnover rate 9.02%) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].