Core Viewpoint - The trade between China and the United States is experiencing a sharp decline, leading to potential shortages in U.S. stores and a dual crisis of rising prices and unemployment [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The shipping volume from China surged in late March and early April as companies rushed to transport goods before tariffs took effect, but it sharply declined after the tariffs were implemented on April 9 [1]. - The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on most Chinese goods, while China has responded with 125% tariffs on many U.S. imports, although some exemptions have been introduced for specific industries [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The decline in demand is impacting revenue across the shipping and logistics industry, leading to significant layoffs that could further drag down the economy [3][4]. - Small businesses, which rely heavily on affordable imported goods, are particularly vulnerable due to their limited financial reserves compared to larger corporations [4][5]. - In 2023, small businesses employed approximately 62 million Americans, accounting for over 46% of private sector employment, highlighting their critical role in the economy [4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Business Sentiment - Recent surveys from regional Federal Reserve banks indicate a sharp decline in new orders and stagnation in capital expenditure plans, reflecting growing anxiety among businesses [5]. - Companies like Southwest Airlines, Chipotle, and PepsiCo have expressed concerns in their earnings calls about consumers reducing spending amid economic uncertainty [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" for Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure [5] Core Insights - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 1.7% week-over-week for the week ending April 18, 2025, compared to a 0.1% increase in the previous week, indicating a potential negative impact on COSCO Shipping Holdings' revenues and profits [8] - The SCFI is viewed as a leading indicator of actual shipping rates, which are correlated with the stock performance of COSCO Shipping Holdings [8] - Changes in shipping rates for various routes include a decrease of 2.9% for European routes, an increase of 0.8% for Mediterranean routes, a decrease of 4.5% for US West Coast routes, and minor increases for Southeast Asia and South America routes [8] Summary by Sections - **Industry Overview**: The report focuses on the container shipping sector within the Asia Pacific region, particularly analyzing COSCO Shipping Holdings in relation to the SCFI [4][60] - **Market Performance**: The SCFI's recent performance reflects a downward trend, which may adversely affect the financial outlook for COSCO Shipping Holdings [8] - **Stock Performance Correlation**: The report emphasizes the correlation between SCFI movements and COSCO Shipping Holdings' stock performance, suggesting that fluctuations in shipping rates directly influence the company's market valuation [8]