Group 1 - The A-share market has lagged behind other markets, with expectations for a rebound as structural issues are addressed, aiming for a target of 3900 points and potentially exceeding 4000 points [1] - The current market sentiment indicates that the washout phase has likely ended, with major sectors like liquor, banking, and real estate showing similar recovery patterns, suggesting a bottom at 3800 points [3] - There is an anticipation of a significant rebound in the A-share market, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and adjustments in mortgage rates, particularly in the context of the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" consumption period [5] Group 2 - The market is expected to experience a phase of accelerated catch-up growth, with technology stocks leading initially, followed by other sectors as they also begin to rise [5] - The stock market operates on a psychological level, where sudden drops can lead to pessimism, but bull markets often experience sharp declines without prolonged corrections [7] - Investors are advised to be patient with low-cost acquisitions and to be strategic with their trading approaches, as not all strategies will suit every investor [3][7]

Industry Overview Upstream - Glass prices have declined significantly, and coal inventories have increased; egg prices have risen substantially [2] Midstream - The operating rates of PX and PTA have remained stable [3] Downstream - The movie box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic and international flights has slightly decreased [4] Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Minister of Science and Technology introduced that in the field of humanoid robots, breakthroughs have been made in overall machine technology, and progress has been achieved in key technologies such as multi - modal perception and brain - cerebellum models, promoting the in - depth integration with embodied intelligence and accelerating the application of humanoid robots in scenarios such as automobile manufacturing, logistics handling, and power inspection [1] Service Industry - The National Health Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Administrative Specifications for the Child - Rearing Subsidy System (Trial)", streamlining the application and review processes, clarifying eligibility, optimizing the application procedures, and emphasizing the role of big - data review [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Price on 9/18 | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 2287.1 yuan/ton | - 0.87% | | | Spot price: Egg | 8.0 yuan/kg | 9.89% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 9366.0 yuan/ton | 0.13% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 15329.5 yuan/ton | 0.45% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 19.6 yuan/kg | - 1.91% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Copper | 80043.3 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 22006.0 yuan/ton | - 0.72% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 20906.7 yuan/ton | 0.13% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 123016.7 yuan/ton | - 0.24% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 17062.5 yuan/ton | 1.26% | | | Spot price: Rebar | 3141.0 yuan/ton | 0.56% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | 807.6 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 3342.5 yuan/ton | 1.13% | | | Spot price: Glass | 14.3 yuan/square meter | 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 14850.0 yuan/ton | - 1.38% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 793.3 | - 0.24% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 63.7 dollars/barrel | 0.05% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 67.5 dollars/barrel | - 0.04% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 3854.0 yuan/ton | - 0.72% | | | Coal price: Coal | 781.0 yuan/ton | 0.51% | | | Spot price: PTA | 4644.0 yuan/ton | - 0.11% | | Chemical Industry | Spot price: Polyethylene | 7396.7 yuan/ton | 0.07% | | | Spot price: Urea | 1672.5 yuan/ton | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Cement price index: National | 131.5 | 0.43% | | Real Estate | Building materials composite index | 114.0 points | 0.89% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 91.8 points | - 0.62% | [38]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International indicates that the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25%, characterizing this as a preemptive cut rather than a recessionary one [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more rate cuts this year, with reductions of 25 basis points anticipated at the end of October and December [1] - The report suggests that the short-term outlook for the US stock market will be volatile, but the medium to long-term trend is expected to be upward [1] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The firm has raised its GDP growth forecasts for the US for the next three years while lowering the unemployment rate expectations for the next two years [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended sectors for investment include technology and growth stocks, materials, interest rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, discretionary consumption), and cyclical sectors (finance, industrials) [1] - For the Hong Kong stock market, a significant rebound followed by high volatility is expected, with substantial upside potential in the medium to long term; recommended sectors include AI and internet, small and mid-cap growth, materials, selectively innovative pharmaceuticals, and the China-US supply chain (home appliances, consumer electronics) [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66 points, down 1.15%, with a trading volume of 13659.62 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66 points, down 1.06%, with a trading volume of 17691.95 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3095.85 points, down 1.64%, with a trading volume of 8295.09 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, brokerage, coal, real estate, insurance, oil, banking, and liquor all experienced declines [1] - The tourism and catering sector showed resilience, rising against the market trend [1] - The semiconductor and chip concepts were strong, with AI-related stocks in the CPO sector being particularly active [1]

——2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 宏 观 研 究 美联储开启预防式降息周期 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) 2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议降息 25BP 基本符合预期，新一轮预防式降息周期正式 开启，预计年内仍有两次降息，但长期降息节奏仍旧偏缓。预计预防式降息周期下， 后续美债利率下行放缓，美股仍有持续支撑，美元指数先下后震荡。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.18 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 收支有待提振 2025.09.17 美国就业：是否有失速风险 2025.09.15 总量需加力，结构有亮点 2025.09.15 信贷与货币：分化延续 2025.09.12 "存款搬家"：如 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower on September 18, with significant fluctuations in the semiconductor sector leading to early gains [1] - By the afternoon, all three indices continued to decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 2% at one point [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector experienced a broad decline, while the non-ferrous metals industry fell sharply following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1] - Real estate, oil, and media sectors showed weakness, whereas the robotics and semiconductor supply chain saw a pullback after initial gains [1] - The SPD and tourism sectors performed well in the afternoon, showing resilience against the overall market trend [1] Index Closing Figures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15% at 3831.66 points [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 0.72% to 1380.35 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.06% to 13075.66 points [1] - The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.64% to 3095.85 points [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 31,352 billion yuan, an increase of 7,584 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai market accounted for 13,660 billion yuan, up 3,593 billion yuan from the previous day, while the Shenzhen market saw a volume of 17,692 billion yuan [1] Stock Movement - A total of 1,026 stocks rose, while 4,348 stocks fell, with 52 stocks remaining flat [1] - There were 80 stocks with gains exceeding 9%, and 6 stocks with losses exceeding 9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant surge on September 17, with major tech stocks like Baidu, NIO, and Meituan seeing substantial gains, driven by positive sentiment and upgraded ratings from foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 3.6%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by more than 1.4% [1]. - Alibaba's stock opened 2.74% higher, reaching a nearly four-year high, contributing to the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks returning to 3 trillion HKD [2]. - The overall market saw a surge, with notable increases in stocks such as Baidu (up 16.08%), NIO (up 9.60%), and Meituan (up 5.68%) [3]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the valuation logic for tech stocks may be changing, with many foreign investors significantly upgrading ratings for major blue-chip companies [1]. - Citigroup's report maintains a buy rating for Tencent, setting a target price of 735 HKD per share, based on a comprehensive valuation method [4]. - Goldman Sachs raised Alibaba's cloud valuation from 36 USD to 43 USD per ADS, adjusting the target price for both US and Hong Kong stocks [4]. Group 3: Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index has increased over 30% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500, which has seen less than 20% growth [5]. - The market sentiment indicator from Huatai Securities shows a slight recovery from panic but remains below neutral, indicating a positive medium-term outlook [5]. - Dongwu Securities notes that the Hong Kong market is in a trend of oscillating upward, with potential for further gains depending on corporate fundamentals [6].

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]

Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales show marginal improvement, with a 2.3% year-on-year increase in transaction area for 30 major cities as of September 14, 2025. First-tier cities saw a significant increase of 13.2% in transaction area [7][10] - Durable goods consumption is declining, with a 10.0% year-on-year decrease in retail sales of passenger cars during the first week of September. Air conditioning production for both domestic and international markets also saw declines of 6.3% and 16.6% respectively [8][12] Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand remains weak, but manufacturing activity has improved. The operating rate for manufacturing increased significantly, with a 6.8% rise in the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants [30][34] - The price of rebar has decreased by 1.5%, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has increased by 3.5%, indicating a rebound in steel production despite weak demand [16][17] Upstream Resources - Coal prices remain resilient, with a slight increase of 0.1% in the price of thermal coal as of September 12, 2025. Supply expectations are tight due to ongoing industry consolidation [35][36] - Prices for non-ferrous metals and crude oil have risen, with gold prices increasing by 0.9% and Brent crude oil prices rising by 2.3% due to heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [37][38] Logistics and Passenger Flow - Long-distance passenger transport is experiencing seasonal declines, while urban transport activity has increased. Subway ridership in major cities rose by 3.6% week-on-week [42][48] - Freight transport shows marginal improvement, with highway truck traffic increasing by 6.2% and railway freight volume rising by 1.8% [53][54] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has increased by 7.4%, indicating a significant rise in dry bulk shipping rates [55][57]

Core Viewpoint - Baidu's stock rose over 3% to $118.54 following the signing of a strategic cooperation framework agreement with China Merchants Group on September 15, focusing on advanced AI technologies and various industries [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The agreement marks a new phase in the collaboration between China Merchants Group, a century-old state-owned enterprise, and Baidu, a global leader in artificial intelligence [1] - The partnership aims to leverage cutting-edge AI technologies in sectors such as technology innovation, transportation logistics, comprehensive finance, and real estate [1] - The collaboration is expected to promote the deep integration of advanced AI technologies with the real economy, providing strong momentum for the intelligent upgrade of China's industries [1]