Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory and relatively insignificant market contradictions. Terminal demand lacks highlights, and downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand. Attention should be paid to the seasonal consumption improvement after the reduction of rainy weather. The short - term price of asphalt is affected by the strong trend of crude oil prices, but the medium - term upward space and driving force of crude oil are limited due to the expected loosening of the balance sheet [1] - The trading strategy for asphalt is a unilateral shock, with no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - On July 10, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2509 in the afternoon session was 3,629 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 226,788 lots, a net increase of 3,805 lots, and the trading volume was 125,635 lots, a decrease of 31,302 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,630 - 4,070 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,600 - 3,700 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,700 - 3,850 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in Shandong and North China markets declined slightly yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Volatility - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Group 5: Figures - There are figures showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China), the closing prices of petroleum asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the price difference of near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of single - side and main contracts of petroleum asphalt futures, the weekly production of domestic asphalt, the production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), the consumption of domestic asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventory (Longzhong caliber) [3]

Group 1: Stock and Bond - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2] - Market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is advisable to hold light long positions in treasury bonds [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Major steel mills in Shanxi Province have restricted crude steel production by about 6 million tons. Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished products may shrink. Attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policy documents. There is no obvious increase on the demand side, and the black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Trump's latest tariff policy has boosted the market's risk - aversion sentiment and the price of gold, but the rising US dollar has suppressed gold. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting are hawkish, and the market expects the Fed to postpone the time of interest rate cuts. Gold is expected to maintain high - level consolidation [4] Group 4: Logs - The spot market price is running weakly. The price in the Shandong market has dropped by 10 yuan, and the price in the Jiangsu market has remained stable. The expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will move down, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume will remain above 60,000 cubic meters. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [5] Group 5: Natural Rubber - The weather in Southeast Asian producing areas has eased, and rubber tapping work has gradually resumed. The demand for glue series has dragged down, showing a differentiation from the price of raw material cup lump. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has declined. The contradiction between supply and demand at both ends has not been significantly alleviated, and the price of natural rubber continues to be under pressure [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The weather in the US Midwest is good, and South American soybeans have a bumper harvest and continue to be exported. Due to the good performance of US soybean export sales, short - covering has boosted US soybeans. About 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July. The oil mill operating rate remains high, the oil mill pick - up volume has declined, the bean meal inventory has continued to rise, and bean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - The oil price may return to narrow - range fluctuations due to the lack of clear guidance. PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with the oil price; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow the cost fluctuations in the short term; although the raw materials have recovered in the short term, the supply - demand of MEG is weakening, and the upward space of the disk is suppressed [8] Group 8: Pig - Currently, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is strong, and the pig sales in many northern regions are smooth. The pig price may continue to rise in the short term. After entering July, the pig supply in the south is expected to be tight, which may take over from the north and lead a new round of price increases [9]

中国石化联党委常委、外资委主任委员兼秘书长庞广廉介绍了中国石化联的职能职责及石化产业近期、 中期、远期补链延链的发展方向，并同北海市政府在战略规划、招商引资、资源嫁接与落地等方面进行 未来合作探讨。 李莉和北海市委常委、统战部部长、副市长龙起云分别介绍了北海市石化产业发展现状及存在的问题。 石油和化学工业规划院副院长郑宝山在分析全国石化产业集约化、绿色化转型趋势的基础上，结合北海 市深水良港、毗邻东盟、清洁能源富集等核心优势，提出综合发展建议。他强调，北海市石化产业发展 需立足国家能源安全战略高度，主动承接国家战略布局，并尝试中外合资模式发展产业。在产业转型升 级方面，郑宝山认为应推动现有炼油产能向高端化学品转型，布局风电制氢耦合绿色甲醇、可持续航空 燃料(SAF)等低碳项目。 中化新网讯 7月8日，中国石油和化学工业联合会(下称中国石化联)同广西北海市政府进行交流座谈，双 方就北海石油化工产业总体发展形势、"十五五"时期发展规划等议题进行深入交流。北海市委副书记、 市长李莉，中国石化联党委书记、会长李云鹏参加座谈。 李云鹏对李莉一行的到访表示欢迎。他表示，中国石化联始终聚焦服务国家、服务社会、服务群众、服 ...

王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/11 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/桶 | 66.57 | 68.38 | -2.65% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/桶 | 68.64 | 70.19 | -2.21% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/吨 | 591.00 | 598.25 | -1.21% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/7/10 | | 美元/吨 | 726.00 | 724.50 | 0.21% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/吨 | 852.00 | 849.67 | 0.27% | ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the significant role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China's industrialization and economic development since the establishment of the new China and the reform and opening-up policy [2][3] - It highlights the importance of a unified and ambitious government in achieving industrialization, contrasting China's efforts with earlier attempts during the Self-Strengthening Movement [3] - The strategic choice to prioritize heavy industry in the early years of the new China is discussed, showcasing the influence of Soviet models and the resulting structure of SOEs [3][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the advantages of China's socialist system in mobilizing resources for large-scale projects, citing examples like the "Two Bombs, One Satellite" and major infrastructure achievements [4] - It discusses the role of party leadership in building a dedicated workforce, exemplified by the spirit of workers and scientists who contributed to the industrial system's resilience and growth [5] - The narrative of reform and opening-up is presented, illustrating how China capitalized on technological advancements and market opportunities to develop a comprehensive industrial system [5][6] Group 3 - The article addresses the current challenges posed by Western pressures on China's industrialization, emphasizing the critical role of SOEs as the backbone of the socialist economy [6] - It advocates for the digital transformation of SOEs, highlighting the need for innovation and modernization in traditional industries to enhance productivity [6][7] - The importance of strategic emerging industries is discussed, with examples of SOEs diversifying into renewable energy, biotechnology, and new materials [7] Group 4 - The article stresses the pivotal role of SOEs in the new type of national system, which combines market mechanisms with government initiatives to foster innovation [7][8] - It emphasizes the need for talent development and the cultivation of skilled professionals to support the long-term goals of new industrialization [8] - The publication of the book "National Industrial Code" is positioned as a guide for future industrial development, aiming to inspire collaboration among stakeholders in the industrial sector [8]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.10） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：77300-79000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，特朗普拟对美国铜进口征收50%关税。 2、供给方面，智利6月份铜出口额为46.7亿美元，较去年同期增长17.5%。据SMM了 解，印尼内政部长 Tito Karnavian表示，他已要求该国矿业部放宽对安曼国际矿业公司 (AmmanMineral International)的铜精矿出口禁令，理由是这对当地经济造成了影 响。Tito 称，安曼国际矿业公司所在的Nusa Tenggara Barat省的第一季度经济同比萎缩 1.47%，受到该公司无法出口其精矿产的影响，而其冶炼厂正在增加产能。印尼已禁止出口 铜精矿和其他原料矿物，以鼓励国内的金属加工。从2023年中期开始，对一些矿物实行出 口禁令，但安曼被允许出口，直至2024年12月，届时预计将启用一家新治炼厂 3、需求方面，2025年5月，中国家用空调出口量为969.5万台，同比微增0.1%。5月 出口量额维持微幅增长，一方面是因为去年的高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Gansu Province's naphtha production in May 2025 experienced a decline of 2.2% year-on-year, totaling 0.8 thousand tons, with a significant decrease in growth rate compared to the previous year [1] - In the first five months of 2025, Gansu Province's naphtha production reached 4.9 thousand tons, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 56.7%, which is 35.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - The naphtha production in Gansu accounted for 0.1% of the national output of 630.9 million tons in May 2025 and 0.2% of the national output of 3243.6 million tons in the first five months of 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The data is derived from large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenues of 20 million yuan or more [4]

Group 1 - In May 2025, the diesel production in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reached 291,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [1] - The growth rate in May 2025 was 2.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, indicating a slowdown in growth [1] - The diesel production in Ningxia accounted for 1.8% of the national diesel production of 15,912,000 tons during the same period, which was 19.0 percentage points higher than the national growth rate [1] Group 2 - From January to May 2025, the total diesel production in Ningxia was 1,336,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [2] - The growth rate for the first five months of 2025 was 12.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, also indicating a slowdown [2] - The diesel production in Ningxia during this period represented 1.7% of the national diesel production of 79,248,000 tons, which was 10.7 percentage points higher than the national growth rate [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and EW oscillated at a low level. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $3.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU09 internal - external spread weakened significantly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The 0.5 crack spread in Singapore decreased slightly, the monthly spread oscillated, and the 8 - 9 month spread oscillated around $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with LU09 oscillating around $17. Singapore's on - shore inventory increased this week, the window was under delivery pressure, and the near - month contracts were under pressure. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, the high - sulfur supply - demand was in the peak season, the internal - external spread has dropped rapidly, the external low - sulfur valuation was high, and the LU internal - external spread was running at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic production [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 409.77 | 410.21 | 415.73 | 421.39 | 426.47 | 5.08 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 469.65 | 466.59 | 469.33 | 473.90 | 474.79 | 0.89 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 2.78 | - 2.61 | - 2.45 | - 2.47 | - 1.76 | 0.71 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 664.83 | 671.26 | 665.18 | 678.94 | 675.44 | - 3.50 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 195.18 | - 204.67 | - 195.85 | - 205.04 | - 200.65 | 4.39 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.34 | 23.61 | 21.59 | 22.87 | 22.33 | - 0.54 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 59.88 | 56.38 | 53.60 | 52.51 | 48.32 | - 4.19 |[2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 416.15 | 416.21 | 414.51 | 421.88 | 426.95 | 5.07 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 424.78 | 424.41 | 423.40 | 430.38 | 436.11 | 5.73 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 500.37 | 500.75 | 496.05 | 503.04 | 507.25 | 4.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 87.39 | 86.91 | 88.27 | 87.84 | 90.06 | 2.22 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 1.67 | - 1.70 | - 1.74 | - 1.55 | - 1.84 | - 0.29 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 146.32 | - 142.38 | - 157.15 | - 146.98 | - 159.19 | - 12.21 |[2][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 406.28 | 407.59 | 406.54 | 416.16 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 513.61 | 512.68 | 507.10 | 513.00 | - | - | | 380 Basis | - 7.15 | - 6.40 | - 6.25 | - 5.00 | - | - | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 4.2 | - 2.9 | - 4.7 | - 7.0 | - 10.3 | - 3.3 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 16.8 | 17.0 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 16.6 | - 1.7 |[3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2871 | 2857 | 2848 | 2869 | 2902 | 33 | | FU 05 | 2815 | 2805 | 2794 | 2807 | 2837 | 30 | | FU 09 | 2987 | 2966 | 2947 | 2972 | 2982 | 10 | | FU 01 - 05 | 56 | 52 | 54 | 62 | 65 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 172 | - 161 | - 153 | - 165 | - 145 | 20 | | FU 09 - 01 | 116 | 109 | 99 | 103 | 80 | - 23 |[3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3522 | 3507 | 3495 | 3526 | 3568 | 42 | | LU 05 | 3455 | 3434 | 3426 | 3470 | 3472 | 2 | | LU 09 | 3623 | 3621 | 3619 | 3663 | 3692 | 29 | | LU 01 - 05 | 67 | - | 69 | 56 | 96 | 40 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 168 | - 187 | - 193 | - 193 | - 220 | - 27 | | LU 09 - 01 | 101 | 114 | 124 | 137 | 124 | - 13 |[4]

Core Viewpoint - The production of soda ash (sodium carbonate) in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region has experienced a significant decline in May 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%, indicating a notable downturn in the industry [1]. Group 1: May 2025 Production Data - The soda ash production in May 2025 reached 28,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.9% [1]. - The growth rate compared to the same period last year decreased by 24.7 percentage points [1]. - The production accounted for 0.9% of the national output of 3,166,000 tons during the same period [1]. Group 2: January to May 2025 Production Data - The total soda ash production from January to May 2025 was 177,000 tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [1]. - The growth rate for this period was 13.7 percentage points lower than the previous year [1]. - This production represented 1.1% of the national total of 16,602,000 tons for the same timeframe [1].