金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： Beta 、换手率因子表现较好 -20250504》 2025-05-04 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业进 入高估区域？——估值与基金重仓股配 置监控 2025-05-03》 2025-05-03 3 《金融工程：金融工程-净利润断层 本周超额基准 0.92%》 2025-05-03 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破压力位前保持中性 突破压力位前保持中性 上周周报(20250427)认为：全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估 值不高，建议在压力位突破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 维持原状。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 0.84%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，上证 50 下跌 0.59%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括传媒、计算机，传媒上涨 2.86%，综合金融、房地产 ...

Market Analysis - Historical reference to the market performance post-2018 tariffs indicates that industries focused on self-sufficiency, domestic demand expansion, and stable dividends performed well[4] - Future market risk appetite is expected to rise, contingent on policy changes, including potential liquidity releases from the Federal Reserve due to U.S. bond and stock market liquidity issues[4] Recommended Industries - Key industries recommended for investment include metals, chemicals, electricity, military, non-banking financials, banking, retail, social services, automotive, and computing[4] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industries with self-sufficiency, domestic demand expansion, and stable dividends amid macroeconomic disturbances[4] Stock Recommendations - **Metals**: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (EPS forecast: 1.92 in 2025, PE: 13.8) shows strong performance potential[22] - **Chemicals**: Yara International ASA (EPS forecast: 2.42 in 2025, PE: 12.2) is positioned for significant growth due to its overseas potassium mining operations[22] - **Electricity**: Zhongmin Energy (EPS forecast: 0.36 in 2025, PE: 15.7) benefits from favorable wind resources in Fujian Province[22] - **Military**: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (EPS forecast: 1.44 in 2025, PE: 29.7) is expected to see steady growth driven by new aircraft models[22] - **Non-Banking Financials**: New China Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (EPS forecast: 7.36 in 2025, PE: 6.5) has a strong leverage position in the market[22] - **Banking**: Jiangsu Bank (EPS forecast: 1.74 in 2025, PE: 6.0) offers high dividend yield and stable growth prospects[22] - **Retail**: Yiwu Small Commodity City (EPS forecast: 0.75 in 2025, PE: 20.7) is set to benefit from international trade reforms[22] - **Social Services**: Core International (EPS forecast: 1.46 in 2025, PE: 22.5) is leveraging AI for enhanced operational efficiency[22] - **Automotive**: Xiaomi Group (EPS forecast: 1.37 in 2025, PE: 34.7) is expected to see significant sales growth in electric vehicles[22] - **Computing**: Cambricon Technologies (EPS forecast: 2.74 in 2025, PE: 257.5) is positioned to benefit from the growing AI chip market[22]

一、停止口号降准降息！择机降准降息，给个明确时间吧！大A现在"失血"严重，急需增量资金的加入，流动性的注入。媒体已经多次报道要降准降息，但 到底啥时候来个准信儿呢？ 同时，会议强调要"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，这"加紧实施"四个字，说明政策肯定不会缺席，而且落地速度可能会加快。目前A股市场不缺资金 和政策支持，真正缺的是信心。所以，逢高减仓吧，这波行情估计快到头了。 二、跟昨天走势差不多，开盘先分歧后修复，然后窄幅震荡一天。 尾盘收盘3286点，跌幅0.05%，这控盘是不是太精准了？按理说今天应该是修复行情。出金压力小了；假期虽然有不确定性，但也不会比现在更糟糕； 除非破区间的下沿，否则节后方向选择向上的概率更高，仓位不要过度轻了，怕有概率踏空。操作方面，小长假期间，外盘的走势充满变数，其波动可能会 给节后的A股市场带来不同程度的影响。中长线而言，市场虽然在窄幅震荡，但依旧处于20日线上，可以稳步进场。 撰稿、收集数据不易，觉得有帮助的朋友可以点击关注、分享♝、点赞，支持一下，谢谢！也可点击收藏，方便日后翻查。 三、A股窄幅整理，依旧维持地量震荡格局。 三大指数均微幅收跌，市场成交额1.04万亿元，为 ...

Key Recommendations - Ant Group's subsidiary Ant Wealth has made a tender offer to acquire 50.55% of Yao Cai Securities at HKD 3.28 per share, totaling HKD 28.14 billion, which is expected to create a new competitive model by combining internet leadership with traditional brokerage services [7][6] - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized the need to stabilize and invigorate the capital market, mentioning the introduction of a "technology board" in the bond market and new structural monetary policy tools [7] Non-Bank Financial Industry - The non-bank financial index rose by 1.2%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.8 percentage points, with brokerage and insurance indices increasing by 0.9% and 1.35% respectively [6] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds increased by 2% week-on-week to CNY 1.3786 trillion, while the margin financing balance slightly decreased by 0.1% to CNY 1.8 trillion [6] AI Chip Industry - The AI chip sector is experiencing strong performance driven by AI industry growth and domestic substitution trends, with notable revenue increases reported by companies like Cambricon and Haiguang Information [11][12] - Google's Q1 capital expenditure grew by 43.4% year-on-year, indicating a strong commitment to AI and cloud computing, with a full-year guidance of USD 75 billion [13] Home Furnishing Industry - The company Jiangxin Home reported a 32.63% year-on-year increase in total revenue to CNY 2.548 billion for 2024, with a net profit growth of 67.64% to CNY 683 million [16][19] - The company’s gross margin improved to 39.35%, up 5.74 percentage points from the previous year, driven by strong sales of smart electric sofas and beds [17] Pet Food Industry - Guai Bao Pet achieved a revenue of CNY 5.245 billion in 2024, a 21.22% increase year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 45.68% [20][21] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with its own brand revenue growing significantly, leading to improved gross margins [22][23]

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 速览投资风口，掌握资本律动。 作者丨 长风 来源丨 东四十条资本 大家好，我是长风。今天给大家带来上周资本市场的专业投研信息。 上周焦点回顾： 硬科技赛道，红杉连续加注具身机器人。 上周，灵心巧手宣布完成超亿元种子轮融资。本轮融资由红杉种子基金、万凯新材领投，力合资本、力合金 融、华仓资本、鞍羽跟投。此外，穹彻智能成功完成数亿元Pre-A++轮融资。本轮融资由盛宇投资、嘉御资本、云启资本、上海科创集团等多家知名投 资机构联合投资，同时老股东Prosperity7、红杉中国、小苗朗程、璞跃中国等持续追投。 镁源动力完成数千万元融资 4月7日消息，固态镁基储氢材料量产企业镁源动力宣布完成数千万元股权融资，本轮融资由中财融商、合肥创新投共同投资。 云象机器人完成A轮融资 大健康赛道，iPSC成重点。 上周，中盛溯源宣布在 B 轮融资中再获数千万元资金支持。至此，中盛溯源 B 轮融资圆满收官，本轮累计融资金额达 2.35 亿元。本次追加融资由广药资本、科金控股、合肥产投、菡源资产知名投资机构联合参与。 4月11日，聚焦iPSC化学诱导平台的睿健医药新宣布 完成了近亿元B+ ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable market outlook with potential upward movement, suggesting a positive investment sentiment in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The market has shown stability with a slight upward trend, although short-term momentum appears limited. The K-line has consistently closed above the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement if supported by increased trading volume [1]. - Various sectors are experiencing rotation, with technology, consumer goods, non-bank financials, home appliances, and metals showing activity, while a clear leading sector has yet to emerge [1]. - The report highlights the importance of observing market dynamics as different capital forces engage in various sectors, leading to a lack of a definitive market leader [1]. Market Overview - On March 18, the market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.52%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.61% [3]. - The net inflow of capital was significant, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange seeing a net inflow of 55.49 billion and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 89.20 billion [4]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for the construction of digital energy and carbon management centers, aiming to enhance energy efficiency and carbon reduction capabilities in industrial enterprises [5]. - The OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, citing trade tensions and rising inflationary pressures [6]. - The National Energy Administration reported a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in total electricity consumption for February, indicating robust industrial activity [8]. Sector Developments - The China Real Estate Industry Association is set to hold a conference to discuss the real estate market trends and explore new development models [9]. - Suzhou is actively seeking support for its AI chip industry, aiming to attract investment and promote innovation in this sector [10]. - AMD has announced plans to expand its partnerships in China, expecting to reach 170 ISV partners by the end of 2025, highlighting growth in the AI PC ecosystem [11]. Fund Dynamics - Over 90% of large private equity funds reported positive returns, with an average gain of over 3% as of the end of February, indicating a strong recovery in the market [12]. - The Economic Daily emphasizes the need for capital markets to support new industrialization, focusing on attracting long-term investment to foster technological innovation [13]. Buyer Perspectives - Silver华基金 suggests that the current market may face technical pressure due to high profit-taking levels, while the consumer sector could see structural opportunities supported by low valuations and policy backing [15].

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 速览投资风口，掌握资本律动。 作者丨长风 来源丨东四十条资本 大家好，我是长风。今天给大家带来上周资本市场的专业投研信息。 上周焦点回顾： 新消费赛道，跨境电商悄然翻红。 上周，跨境电商企业艾姆诗宣布顺利完成近亿元人民币 Pre-IPO 轮融资，本轮融资由同创伟业独家投资。此外，跨境电商AI企业杭州斗兽场数字智能技术公司 （LynxAI）获跨境电商大卖数百万人民币天使轮投资。 硬科技赛道，两个首投受关注。 3月12日，中金保时捷基金宣布完成国内首笔投资，参投智能驾驶 系统供应商智驾大陆的数亿元天使轮融资。本轮融资由高瓴投资领投，浙江金控共同跟投。此外，上 周，上海国投先导人工智能产业母基金联合领投AI 芯片独角兽壁仞科技，数家知名投资机构及产业 资本跟投，金额为数亿元人民币。据悉，这是上海国投先导人工智能产业母基金首个直投项目。 大健康赛道，AI创新药。 上周，新樾生物宣布完成由AI+自动化技术平台公司晶泰科技领投的A+轮 战略投资。3月13日消息，AI生物医药企业英矽智能宣布已完成由惠理集团旗下私募股权基金、浦东 创投和浦发集团、锡创投和宜兴国控联合领投的1.1 ...

摘要 1、今天，A股午后突发跳水，创业板指最终跌超1%，机器人板块逆势上涨，AI芯片、半导体等下跌。 2、两大原因影响市场表现，科技行情还能持续多久？ 3、机构：近期A股市场风格与2013年有一定类似之处。会否重演2013-2015年科技牛？ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1312 篇白话财经- - "上午还在数钱，下午就开始数心跳了。" （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/3/7，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额超1.8万亿，盘面上，机器人板块在利好作用下逆势上涨，AI芯片、半导体等板块则出现明显回调。 不过对于后市，机构认为，"两会行情"风格切向大盘，会后科技有望二次上涨。 A股跳水原因揭秘 上午还是创了年内新高的指数，下午就开始跳水，到底是发生了什么？ 1、港股跳水，外围科技股大跌。 下午，港股市场出现大幅跳水，恒指、恒生科技指数转跌，大数据概念、信息安全等集体下跌。日本、韩国等亚太市场集体走弱。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/3/7，不作投资推荐） 分析人士认为，外围不确性依然较强，特朗普的政策摇摆不动，给全球市场带来不适。 2、 Manus突传大消息。 随后，Manu ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Adjustments - 15 provinces have lowered their economic growth targets, accounting for 31.8% of national GDP, with a national weighted average target of 5.3% for 2024 [1] - Special bonds will support computing power, emerging industry equipment, intelligent transformation, and provincial industrial parks, with the capital ratio for special bonds increased to 30% [1] - Local governments are ensuring an increase in technology investment, with Shanghai setting a target for R&D spending to reach 4.5% of GDP [1] Group 2: AI Industry Developments - DeepSeek R1 model has entered the global top-tier model ranks, leading to rapid user growth and a reevaluation of the AI industry landscape [2] - 10 cloud computing giants and 12 intelligent computing companies have integrated with DeepSeek, benefiting from short-term traffic and building long-term competitive advantages [2] - Following the DeepSeek event, Chinese tech asset valuations have recovered, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 22.8% [2] Group 3: Computing Power and Investment Trends - The government is accelerating the development of domestically controlled computing power, with a target of 105 EFlops for intelligent computing construction by 2025 [3] - Internet companies are experiencing rapid growth in capital expenditures, with ByteDance's expected CapEx for 2025 reaching 160 billion yuan, doubling year-on-year [3] - Comparable companies are projected to have PS valuations of 52, 36, and 28 times from 2024 to 2026, with Cambrian expected to enjoy a valuation premium as a rare domestic AI chip player [3] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Market Insights - Solid-state batteries offer higher energy density, enhanced safety, and longer cycle life compared to traditional lithium batteries, positioning them as a key direction for next-generation power batteries [4] - Major automakers like BYD, GAC, and Changan have set timelines for solid-state battery deployment, with 2027 identified as a critical mass production year [4] - The solid-state battery market is projected to exceed 600 GWh in shipments by 2030, with a market size surpassing 250 billion yuan, indicating a period of rapid growth [4] Group 5: Semiconductor Industry Developments - By the end of 2024, SMIC is expected to have a total capacity of 421,000 wafers per month, making it the largest and most advanced foundry in mainland China [5] - SMIC operates multiple 200mm and 300mm wafer fabs in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Tianjin, with plans to add three new 12-inch production lines [5] - The domestic demand for AI chips is strong, and SMIC's advanced process capacity is expected to fill part of the domestic computing chip demand due to overseas flow limitations [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nvidia (NVDA.US) with a target price slightly adjusted to $143.0, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of $120.2 [1][5][22]. Core Insights - Nvidia's revenue for FY4Q25 reached $39.331 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 78% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%, exceeding previous guidance and market expectations by approximately $1 billion [2][15]. - The company anticipates a median revenue of $43 billion for FY1Q26, also above market consensus [2]. - Nvidia's gross margin for FY4Q25 was reported at 73.0%, a decline of 2.9 percentage points year-over-year and 1.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to the ramp-up of Blackwell production [2][15]. - The net profit for FY4Q25 grew by 80% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing market expectations [2][15]. - The report highlights Nvidia as a key beneficiary of the AI large model industry's growth, driven by innovations from DeepSeek and the scaling law effects in various segments [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Nvidia's projected revenues for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: $60.922 billion - FY2025: $130.497 billion - FY2026E: $201.305 billion - FY2027E: $252.321 billion - FY2028E: $292.164 billion - The net profit projections for the same period are: - FY2024: $29.760 billion - FY2025: $72.880 billion - FY2026E: $109.193 billion - FY2027E: $143.118 billion - FY2028E: $160.114 billion [4][13]. Market Performance and Valuation - Nvidia's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 25.9x, significantly lower than its July 2024 peak of 42.7x and below its historical average by one standard deviation, enhancing its valuation attractiveness [1][22]. - The report indicates that Nvidia's GPU products are positioned to benefit from the scaling laws associated with AI large models, which are expected to drive demand across various sectors, including startups [3][29].