1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral to positive investment rating for the bond market. It suggests that investors may increase their allocation to fixed - income assets such as bonds at the end of the year, and is optimistic about the bond market's performance in the medium term. [4][37] 2. Core Viewpoints - Manufacturing demand drives production recovery, with the November manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 49.20%, but still below the boom - bust line. The new order index and production index have both increased. The improvement in the foreign trade environment due to Sino - US economic and trade consultations has led to an overall recovery in demand, which in turn has accelerated production. [2][13] - The improvement in the international trade environment has led to a recovery in external demand, driving a phased repair of demand. The new export order index and import index have both increased in November, and the BDI index has increased by 31.28%. However, there are still uncertainties in exports that may affect the fourth - quarter economic trend. [2][23] - The manufacturing price end continues to show positive changes. The raw material purchase price index remains in the expansion range, the ex - factory price index has increased, and the inventory of finished products has decreased, which may promote the repair of the manufacturing production end. [3][27] - Non - manufacturing business has slowed down. The service industry PMI has declined due to the high - base effect of the National Day holiday, and the construction industry is still in the contraction range, but infrastructure - related activities continue to grow. [3][34] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Manufacturing Production Shows Slight Repair - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The new order index rose 0.40 percentage points to 49.20%, and the production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 50.00%. [13] - Among different manufacturing industries, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing remains in the expansion range, while the PMI of equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries has fallen into the contraction range, and the PMI of basic raw material industries has increased. [13] 3.2 External Environment Drives Demand Recovery - In November, the new export order index was 47.60%, up 1.70 percentage points from the previous value, and the import index was 47.00%, up 0.20 percentage points from the previous value. The BDI index increased by 31.28% in November, indicating an improvement in the external trade environment. [23] - The short - term external environment is easing, but there are still uncertainties in exports that may affect the fourth - quarter economic trend. [23] 3.3 Positive Changes in the Price End Continue - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index remains in the expansion range, and the ex - factory price index has increased. The difference between the two has widened by 0.4 percentage points to 5.40pct. [27] - The raw material purchase price index in November was 53.60%, better than the average of the past five years. The procurement volume index has increased slightly, the ex - factory price index has increased, and the inventory of finished products has decreased. [27] - The economic kinetic energy index in November was 1.90pct, up 1.20 percentage points. The positive recovery in prices may reflect the policy effect of rectifying "involution - style" competition, and the PPI data in November may also show a reaction. [27][29] 3.4 Attention Should Be Paid to Corporate Business Vitality - In November, the PMI of large enterprises was 49.30%, down 0.60 percentage points from the previous value, while the PMI of medium - sized and small enterprises increased by 0.20 and 2.00 percentage points respectively. [32] - The recovery of external demand helps to improve the prosperity of small and medium - sized enterprises, but the prosperity of large enterprises is the guarantee of the overall business vitality of domestic enterprises and needs continuous attention. [32] 3.5 Non - manufacturing Prosperity Declines - In November, the official non - manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, down 0.60 percentage points from the previous value. The service industry PMI was 49.50%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous value due to the high - base effect of the National Day holiday. [34] - After the concentrated release of consumer demand during the National Day Golden Week, the business activity indexes of consumer - related service industries have declined to varying degrees, but the business activity index and new order index of the financial industry have increased significantly. [34] - The construction industry is still in the contraction range, with the business activity index at 49.60%, up 0.50 percentage points from the previous value. Infrastructure - related activities continue to grow, and investment is expected to strengthen at the end of the year. [35] 3.6 Investment Suggestion - The PMI data has a neutral to positive impact on the bond market. As the market sentiment adjusts, investors may increase their allocation to fixed - income assets such as bonds at the end of the year. In the short term, attention should be paid to policy expectations such as the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting. In the medium term, the bond market is expected to perform well. [4][37]

Core Insights - Eurozone's private sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in two and a half years, with the composite PMI revised up to 52.8, marking a 30-month high and remaining above the neutral line of 50.0 for the sixth consecutive month [1] - The growth was primarily driven by the services sector, which saw the services PMI rise to 53.6, the highest level since May 2023, with new business growth accelerating to the fastest rate in 18 months [1] - There is a notable divergence at the country level, with Ireland achieving its highest growth rate in three and a half years, while Germany experienced a decline from a 29-month high in October [1] Economic Activity - The services sector showed clear signs of recovery, with strong performance offsetting weaknesses in manufacturing, leading to a slight increase in economic output compared to the previous month [1] - Employment in the Eurozone continued to increase in November, although the pace of growth slowed, with service sector hiring persisting while manufacturing firms experienced the fastest rate of layoffs since April [2] Inflation and Costs - Input costs rose at the fastest pace in eight months, driven by increased procurement costs for manufacturers and accelerated service sector expenses, although the ability of businesses to pass on costs to customers weakened [2] - The preliminary year-on-year harmonized CPI for November was reported at 2.2%, slightly above the European Central Bank's (ECB) medium-term target of 2% [2] - The ECB officials expressed satisfaction with the current interest rate levels, indicating a strong macroeconomic outlook that supports market confidence in maintaining rates unchanged in the coming months [2]

FICC日报 | 2025-12-04 美国"小非农"超预期降温，拖累美元走低 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月RatingDog服务业PMI微降至52.1，新出口订单表现明显改善。12月3日，法国总统马克龙抵达 北京，开启第四次对华国事访问。A股市场全天震荡调整，创业板 ...

周三（12月3日），美国就业市场再度释放急剧降温信号，ADP报告意外录得大幅负增长，强化市场对 美联储下周降息的押注，同时推动金价延续反弹。与此同时，美国服务业活动虽有所改善，但就业依旧 处于收缩区间，进一步凸显经济动能的不均衡性。 ADP就业意外大幅下滑私营部门流失3.2万个岗位 美国私人部门11月就业状况大幅恶化。ADP 周三公布的数据显示，企业本月意外削减 32,000 个岗位， 远不及市场此前预期，为就业市场近期"波动与乏力"趋势再添证据。 (来源：彭博社，金融时报) ADP 首席经济学家 Nela Richardson 指出："随着消费者趋于谨慎、宏观环境不确定性上升，企业招聘持 续呈现明显的反复表现。11月的放缓呈现广泛性，其中小企业的萎缩最为明显。" 由于美国政府此前发生 长达 43天的停摆，官方的非农就业报告本月将不会发布，使得市场对 ADP数据 的依赖程度显著提升。 报告还显示，薪资增速继续走弱：留任员工工资年增幅降至4.4%（10月为 4.5%）；跳槽员工薪资增幅 降至6.3%（10月为 6.7%）。 多个行业招聘放缓，包括制造业、专业与商业服务、信息技术以及建筑业。 技术上，FX Emp ...

Economic Recovery Indicators - In November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The new export orders index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, reflecting strong resilience in foreign trade [1] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumption upgrade policy has driven sales exceeding 2.4 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people in the first ten months of the year [2] - Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 10.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [2] Logistics and Delivery Growth - The express delivery business volume surpassed 180 billion pieces for the first time, indicating robust consumer activity [3] - The average monthly express delivery volume since 2025 has exceeded 16 billion pieces, showcasing a new growth trajectory in consumption [3] Policy Support for Economic Growth - The government has allocated 500 billion yuan for local government debt to enhance financial capacity and stimulate effective investment [4] - New policy financial tools have been implemented to support over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy and AI [4] Future Economic Outlook - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to set a proactive macroeconomic policy for 2026, emphasizing domestic demand and technological self-reliance [5] - Fiscal and monetary policies are anticipated to remain supportive, with potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [5]

（原标题：智利经济增速超预期） 智利《三点钟报》12月1日报道，智利央行公布数据显示，十月份经济活动指数 （Imacec）同比增长2.2%，高于市场预期，前十月累计增长2.4%，当前增速与政府全 年2.5%的预测目标基本一致，经济保持温和复苏。经济增长主要由服务业和商业驱 动，其中商业活动同比大幅增长8.1%，服务业同比增长2.5%。但商品生产同比下降 0.2%，主要受铜开采量减少和电力附加值下降拖累。 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November increased to 49.2%, up by 0.2 percentage points, remaining below the threshold for eight consecutive months, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, marking the first contraction since 2024 [12][14][21] - The report highlights improvements in the resource, consumer services, and information technology sectors, with notable price increases in industrial and precious metals, as well as in the new energy supply chain [1][21] - Recommendations are made for sectors with high or improving sentiment, including non-ferrous metals, steel, chemicals, batteries, traditional Chinese medicine, film, and semiconductors [1][21] Industry Overview Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector shows a slight recovery with a production index at 50.0%, and new orders index at 49.2%, indicating a marginal improvement in demand despite remaining in contraction territory [14][15] - The purchasing price index rose to 53.6%, driven by increases in coal, metals, and new energy materials, reflecting a rebound in prices due to supportive policies and improved supply [14][15][21] Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index both increased, with the Philadelphia index rising by 6.48% to 7149.47 points [24] - Prices for DDR4 and DDR5 DRAM memory increased, with 8GB DDR4 prices rising by 13.66% to $16.51 and 16GB DDR5 prices up by 3.95% to $27.20 [27][28] Consumer Services - The film industry saw a significant increase in box office revenue, with a ten-day average up by 250.53%, while ticket prices decreased slightly [19][21] - The price index for traditional Chinese medicine increased, indicating a positive trend in this sector [19][21] Resource Sector - Industrial metal prices generally increased, with copper, zinc, and nickel prices rising, while coal prices showed mixed trends with some declines in specific regions [23] - The national cement price index decreased, while glass prices increased, reflecting varied trends across different materials [23] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The real estate market showed signs of improvement with an increase in land transaction premium rates and total area sold, despite a decline in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale [23] - The monetary market experienced a net withdrawal, with a decrease in A-share turnover rates and daily transaction volumes [23] Public Utilities - Natural gas prices in China decreased, while electricity generation from key power plants showed a widening year-on-year decline [23]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang's draft policy for promoting high-quality economic development outlines 42 specific measures across eight areas, aiming to enhance innovation, manufacturing, and service sectors while supporting consumption upgrades [2][4]. Group 1: Innovation and Technology - The draft emphasizes the importance of original innovation and tackling key core technologies, proposing a collaborative mechanism involving enterprises, government, and platforms [4]. - It plans to implement over 400 major technology projects and achieve more than 100 significant technological outcomes, with at least 80% participation from enterprises [4]. - The policy includes a target of establishing a computing power scale of 200 EFlops in the province and allocating approximately 500 million yuan for artificial intelligence support [5]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - The draft aims to enhance the competitiveness of new quality productivity industries, offering up to 500,000 yuan in subsidies for individual projects [6]. - It proposes to support over 5,000 key industrial technology transformation projects and aims for an increase of over 1.1 trillion yuan in medium to long-term loans for manufacturing [7]. - The policy encourages the establishment of 20 future factories and 200 smart factories, along with the creation of 20 provincial industrial data sets [8]. Group 3: Service Sector and Consumption - The draft seeks to promote consumption upgrades by fostering new consumption models and issuing consumption vouchers to stimulate spending [9]. - It aims to support the transformation of over 50 professional markets and enhance the influence of the "Delicious Zhejiang" brand through various events [9]. - The policy includes measures to support the growth of service industry platforms and the establishment of around 200 leading service enterprises [10]. Group 4: Aviation and Low-altitude Economy - The draft supports the construction and operation of A-class general airports and the opening of over five new international routes and 100 drone routes [10].

日本采购经理人指数数据显示，私营部门产出继续适度扩张，这再次由服务业活动所驱动。标准普尔全 球市场情报公司的Annabel Fiddes表示，该行业已连续过去五个月推动了增长。监测前景乐观情绪和员 工招聘的11月份指标达到2025年初以来的最高水平。新订单增长加速，企业表示有信心订单和商业活动 将在明年继续增加。对未来活动的乐观情绪攀升至1月份以来的最高点，企业预期需求将更加坚挺。 Fiddes表示，在接下来的几个月里，关键在于观察政府的新经济刺激方案是否会转化为需求的进一步改 善和产出的增长。 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI for November shows a slowdown in contraction, with the index rising to 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in production and demand [7][8] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, suggesting that the service sector has entered a contraction phase [7][11] - The construction industry has remained below the growth line for four consecutive months, necessitating further economic stabilization policies [7][11] Group 2: Real Estate - The sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies in November decreased by 36.8% year-on-year and 11.7% month-on-month, indicating a significant decline as the market enters a sales lull [14][15] - The sales area for the top 100 companies also saw a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, although the rate of decline has lessened compared to previous months [14][15] - There is an increasing expectation for policy easing as the market shows signs of weakness, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the sector [14][16] Group 3: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - The company Huaren Sanjiu (000999.SZ) reported a revenue of 21.986 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 11.38%, with a net profit of 2.353 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 20.51% [18][19] - The company is focusing on both internal and external growth strategies, particularly in the consumer health sector, and is expected to achieve net profits of 3.295 billion yuan, 3.843 billion yuan, and 4.268 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [19][20] - The company has a strong brand value and advantages in traditional Chinese medicine, which supports its growth potential [19][20] Group 4: Beauty and Personal Care - Huaxi Biological (688363.SH) reported a revenue of 3.163 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.36%, primarily due to a strategic contraction in its skin science innovation business [21][22] - The company is optimizing its business structure, with a focus on high-margin pharmaceutical-grade raw materials, which has led to an overall gross margin of 70.68% [22][23] - The company is expected to see a recovery in its skin science business and growth in its raw materials segment, driven by new synthetic biological materials [23]