Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the overall market outlook, particularly focusing on the stock market, energy sector, and various industries including steel, chemicals, and real estate. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The market is expected to reach 3,700 points in September and October, with July and August being the last opportunity for fund managers to increase their positions this year [1][2] 2. **Geopolitical and Economic Policy Impact**: Recent geopolitical tensions have eased, and the necessity for large-scale economic measures has decreased, impacting market expectations [3] 3. **Mid-Year Reporting Season**: The mid-year reporting season will significantly influence the market, especially with a high number of IPOs and increased selling pressure [5] 4. **Economic Policy Shift**: The Central Financial Committee's focus on reducing "involution" indicates a shift in economic policy towards improving living standards and addressing the issue of revenue without profit [6][7] 5. **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to switch between high and low sectors, focusing on electronics, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and technology growth sectors [9] 6. **Non-Ferrous Metals Sector**: The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing excessive capacity, particularly in copper and aluminum [10] 7. **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day, which aligns with expectations but exceeds market predictions [12] 8. **Impact of the U.S. DAHLMA Act**: The DAHLMA Act is expected to lower costs for oil and gas companies, potentially leading to a short-term rebound in oil prices [13][14] 9. **Chemical Industry Outlook**: The basic chemical industry is anticipated to gradually recover by 2025, with recommendations for specific sectors such as explosives and price-increasing products [15] 10. **Steel Industry Recovery**: The steel sector is projected to enter a bottoming-up cycle over the next two to three years, driven by profit recovery and stable demand [20][22] 11. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector is experiencing a reduction in land purchases, with major cities seeing significant increases in land sale revenues [25] 12. **Building Materials Sector Changes**: The building materials sector is undergoing significant changes, with expectations of improved profitability in cement and glass industries [27][29] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Investment Recommendations**: Specific companies in various sectors are highlighted for their strong performance and potential, including Baosteel, China Northern Rare Earth Group, and others in the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [24][10] 2. **Energy Sector Trends**: The energy sector is expected to see a shift in dynamics due to geopolitical factors and seasonal demand fluctuations, impacting pricing strategies [30][35] 3. **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a balanced approach to investment amid fluctuating economic indicators [9][38] 4. **Long-term Projections**: The long-term outlook for various sectors, including energy and chemicals, suggests a gradual recovery and potential for growth, despite short-term volatility [16][38]

中信建投｜周期红利周周谈 摘要 Q&A • 房地产市场呈现复苏迹象，二手房成交量显著增长，重点城市 1-2 月同比 增长约 30%，创三年新高，上海和深圳表现尤为突出，议价空间收窄，表 明市场信心正在恢复。 • 房地产政策稳中求进，精准滴灌，优化土地供给，一二线城市优质地块溢 价率创 2022 年以来新高；专项债用于闲置土地收储，规模预计达 5,000 亿 以上；城市更新加速，多项政策推动需求。 • 房地产企业风险下降，万科通过积极偿债降低风险，新兴城市房地产资产 重估带动开发商表现，房地产板块整体估值有望提高，投资机会显现。 • 建筑业 PMI 受春节影响波动，复工复产后回升，但整体复苏偏弱，关注两 会财政政策，去年中央谷地发放 5,000 亿元，可能用于土储专项债等领域， 财政力度将决定建筑行业整体情况。 • 钾肥价格有望上涨，全球供需收紧，新增产能有限，俄罗斯与白俄罗斯限 产，需求端持续增长，供需缺口显著，A 股上市公司亚钾国际弹性最大， 成长潜力良好。 • 动力煤价格下跌增加火电度电利润，但火电整体弹性下降，建议关注年度 长协签约较好的区域，如上海、安徽等地的一些火电公司，包括南方电网、 申能股份和上 ...

Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Overweight [1] - Core Viewpoint: The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 16th with a fluctuation of 0.80%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.60 percentage points [4][22] - Key Recommendations: Focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Group 2 - Synthetic Biology: A pivotal moment is approaching, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the energy structure adjustment [4] - Refrigerants: The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints and stable demand growth anticipated [5] - Electronic Specialty Gases: The domestic market faces a contradiction between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [6][8] - Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals: A global trend towards lighter raw materials in the olefin industry is noted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter ethane and propane [8] - COC Polymers: The domestic industrialization process is accelerating, driven by breakthroughs in local enterprises and a shift in downstream industries to domestic production [9] - Potash Fertilizer: Prices are expected to bottom out and rebound due to supply reductions and increased demand from farmers [10] - MDI Market: The oligopoly structure is expected to improve, with demand steadily increasing and a favorable supply outlook anticipated [12]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held an expanded meeting to promote the establishment of a normalized market stabilization mechanism, aiming to manage risks in bond defaults and private equity funds [1] - In June 2025, A-share new accounts reached 1.65 million, a year-on-year increase of 53%, significantly surpassing the same period last year. A total of 12.6 million new A-share accounts were opened in the first half of the year [2] - Guangzhou plans to implement a "commercial-to-public loan" policy, which will be activated when the personal housing loan rate is below 75%. Preventive measures will be taken when the individual loan rate reaches 85% or above, and the loan will be suspended when it reaches 90% or above [3] Group 2 - As of the end of June, the price of domestic salt lake potassium chloride products (60% KCl) increased by 100 yuan per ton compared to the previous month, along with shipping costs, approaching the year's high points seen in February and March [4] - From the beginning of 2025 to now, the comprehensive price index of the NAND Flash market has risen by 9.2%, while the DRAM market's comprehensive price index has surged by 47.7%. The DRAM market is expected to reach a historical high in 2025 [5] - Luxshare Precision is planning to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Nanjing Shanglv expects a year-on-year decline in net profit of 67% to 78% for the first half of the year. Kaimeite Gases, which has seen three consecutive trading limits, reported that its current operating conditions are normal with no undisclosed significant matters. Chengbang Co., Ltd., which has seen five consecutive trading limits, noted that its subsidiary, Xinchun Electronics, currently has a small business scale [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Lao government has issued a special decree for the "Potash Industrial Park," providing comprehensive tax incentives for projects within the park, which is expected to accelerate the development of the potash industry in Laos [1] Group 1: Tax Incentives and Government Support - The decree includes exemptions from import/export tariffs, value-added tax, tailings resource tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax for projects in the Potash Industrial Park [1] - This support follows earlier tax incentives granted to the potash fertilizer project, indicating a tailored policy framework to foster the development of the potash industry in Laos [1] Group 2: Industrial Chain Development - The company has shifted from a traditional "mining and selling" model to a more integrated industrial chain approach, recognizing that single mineral export is just the starting point of the value chain [2] - The potash project has achieved significant milestones, with production capacity projected to reach 500 million tons per year by 2025, expanding into downstream industries such as bromine and chlor-alkali [2][3] Group 3: Development Methodology - The company has identified three key measures for the successful development of the industrial park: initiation, expansion, and招商 (investment attraction) [4] - The company has effectively integrated resources, energy, and policy to kickstart the industrial park, including securing a 300,000 kW power station project and a 50 MW solar power project [4][5] Group 4: Economic Impact and Future Prospects - The industrial park is positioned as a model for industrialization in Laos, with the potential for replication in other developing countries to accelerate industrial growth and economic structure optimization [7] - The company's "three transformations" model (industrialization, urbanization, and modern agriculture) is expected to enhance its competitive advantage and establish it as a leader among Chinese enterprises in Laos [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights investment opportunities in the potassium fertilizer sector, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand [6][32] - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by oligopoly, with major reserves concentrated in Canada, Belarus, and Russia, allowing leading companies to control prices through capacity management [33] - The report anticipates a new long-term growth cycle for the chemical industry, supported by recent policy initiatives aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics [17] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new long-term growth cycle due to recent policy measures aimed at boosting demand and stabilizing the market [17] - Key investment themes include focusing on core assets, industries facing supply constraints, and sectors with upward demand certainty [18][19] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index decreased by 2.5% during the week, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [20][21] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 3.2%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3 percentage points [20] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 74 stocks rose while 345 fell during the week [28] - The top gainers included Ningxin New Materials (+46.7%) and Jinniu Chemical (+27.4%), while the largest decliners were Jiangtian Chemical (-19.2%) and Shanshui Technology (-18.8%) [29] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report emphasizes the investment potential in the potassium fertilizer sector, noting recent price increases for various potassium products [32] - Significant supply reductions have been announced by major potassium fertilizer producers, which are expected to support price stability and growth in the sector [33][34]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 14th this week, with a slight decline of -0.01%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.24 percentage points and underperforming the ChiNext Index by 0.21 percentage points [3][22]. - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of divergence in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The chemical sector's performance for the week of June 9-13, 2025, showed a slight decline of -0.01%, ranking 14th among sectors [3][22]. - The top three performing sectors were non-ferrous metals (+3.79%), oil and petrochemicals (+3.5%), and agriculture (+1.62%) [22]. 2. Key Industry Dynamics - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the shift in energy structure [4]. - The upcoming quota policy for refrigerants is anticipated to lead to a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with demand expected to grow steadily due to market expansion [5]. - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and value, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [6][8]. - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter raw materials like ethane and propane [8]. - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, driven by supply chain security concerns and the shift of downstream industries to China [9]. - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [10]. - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12]. 3. Company Performance - The top three performing chemical stocks this week were Jinjis Co. (+53.3%), Suzhou Longjie (+18.5%), and Akali (+16.7%) [28]. - The companies to watch in the synthetic biology sector include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [4]. - Key players in the refrigerant market include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology [5]. - In the electronic specialty gases sector, companies like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are recommended [6][8]. - For light hydrocarbon chemicals, Satellite Chemical is highlighted as a key player [8]. - In the COC polymer space, Akali is noted for its potential breakthroughs [9]. - In the potash fertilizer sector, companies such as Yaji International and Salt Lake Co. are recommended [10]. - For MDI, Wanhua Chemical is a key focus due to its significant market share [12].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic potassium fertilizer prices in China are expected to remain stable, influenced by international market conditions and supply-demand dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Price Agreements and Trends - The China potassium fertilizer import negotiation group has reached an agreement with a Dubai-based company for the 2025 import contract price at $346 per ton, which is an increase of $73 per ton compared to last year's $273 per ton CFR price [2]. - The new contract price is $3 per ton lower than the recent large contract signed by India, indicating that China continues to maintain a competitive position in the global potassium fertilizer market [2]. - International potassium fertilizer prices have been rising due to reduced production in Russia and Belarus, leading to a tight global supply [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Industry experts predict that the signing of the large contract will support high international prices, while domestic supply and demand remain weak, leading to a stable market with narrow fluctuations [2]. - The Secretary-General of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association's Potassium Salt and Fertilizer Branch noted that the overall tight supply and gradual price increase in the international potassium fertilizer market align with market expectations [2]. - The execution of new contracts is expected to ensure supply for the second half of this year and the spring of next year, playing a crucial role in supporting agricultural production and national food security [3].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业点评 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 16 日 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 点评： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 行业寡头格局明显，欧洲减产扰动供给。全球钾肥市场呈现寡头垄断特征。根据观 研天下统计，2023 年全球钾矿储量超过 36 亿吨，主要分布在加拿大、白俄罗斯和 俄罗斯，储量（折 K2O）分别 11.0 亿吨、7.5 亿吨、6.5 亿吨，储量占比合计为 69%（按照总储量 36 亿吨计算），这种寡头格局导致龙头企业可通过控制产能释 放调控价格。根据肥料与贸易和农资导报，前苏联三家钾肥公司都先后宣布上半年 的减产计划，合计减少出口 180 万吨以上（考虑了 Uralkali 因国内需求增加而减少 出口的部分）。其中 Eurochem 由于其在俄罗斯的 Usolskiy 和 Volgakaliy 矿的改造 和系统升级将在第二季度减少约 10 万吨的钾肥产量；1 月 22 日白俄罗斯钾肥巨 头 Belaruskali 计划在其索利戈尔斯克 4 号矿区开展大规模设备维护作业，直接导 致公司钾肥产量减少约 90 万~100 万吨；Uralkali 三座矿山 ...

Group 1 - The company has established a potassium fertilizer production capacity of 5 million tons per year, with the potassium fertilizer subsidiary responsible for approximately 4 million tons per year and other subsidiaries completing 1 million tons per year [1] - The demand for potassium fertilizer is expected to remain stable with an upward trend, and international potassium fertilizer prices have significantly increased [1] - The company is accelerating its overseas potassium fertilizer industry layout to ensure long-term stable supply [1] Group 2 - The company has advanced potassium chloride processing technology, including flotation and dissolution crystallization methods [1] - The core production lines for potassium chloride and lithium carbonate are ramping up capacity, with a new 40,000 tons per year lithium salt integrated project making progress [1] - The project utilizes advanced technology to increase lithium recovery by 25%, reduce freshwater consumption by 47.4%, and decrease overall energy consumption by 50.6% [1] Group 3 - The company is actively exploring diversified shareholder return methods to ensure continuity and stability in profit distribution policies [1] - Through refined management, optimized channels, and reduced labor costs, the company is further lowering production costs [1] - China Minmetals is assisting the company in transforming its identity to a central enterprise, enhancing its core competitiveness [1] Group 4 - The company is deeply aligning with China's salt lake "three-step" development strategy to build a globally influential salt lake industry cluster [1]