Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that copper prices are expected to remain high through 2026, with varying impacts on companies depending on their position in the market [1] Group 2 - From a supply and demand perspective, the copper market is projected to experience sustained high prices due to ongoing demand and potential supply constraints [1] - Companies in the copper industry will experience "uneven" effects, meaning some will benefit more than others from the high prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that copper prices are expected to remain high through 2026, with varying impacts on companies depending on their specific circumstances [1] - The supply and demand dynamics are central to the forecast of sustained high copper prices [1] - Companies will experience differing levels of impact from these price trends, indicating a "cold and hot" effect across the industry [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper in the non - ferrous sector is "Bearish - biased" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The current upward trend of copper prices is mainly due to concerns about potential US tariffs on refined copper, leading to a concentration of global copper liquidity in the US. Additionally, the market's increased expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is beneficial for metals with strong financial attributes like copper. However, considering factors such as the ongoing strike at a Chilean copper mine and new domestic resource discoveries, the overall investment recommendation for copper is bearish - biased [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - The night - session closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract CU2602 was 100,230 yuan/ton, down 1.76% from the previous night - session close. The night - session closing price of the secondary main contract CU2603 was 100,340 yuan/ton, down 1.83%. As of 06:00 Beijing time, the closing price of the main COMEX copper contract was equivalent to 89,352 yuan/ton (after exchange - rate conversion), down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03ME closed at 12,702 dollars/ton (equivalent to 88,669 yuan/ton after exchange - rate conversion), down 1.53% [1] Important Information - On January 8, according to Wenhua Finance, Chile's central bank data showed that Chile's copper export revenue in December was 5.83 billion dollars, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. - On January 8, according to Gelonghui, the strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in northern Chile continued, with the concentrator operating at only 30% of its normal capacity and its inventory of supplies likely to be exhausted in a few days. - On January 7, according to the official website of the Ministry of Natural Resources, during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China's new round of mineral exploration breakthrough strategy discovered 10 large oil fields, 19 large gas fields, and significantly increased the resource reserves of uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potash. - On January 7, according to Cailian Press, Citi said that driven by strong momentum, copper prices would reach 14,000 dollars per ton in the next three months, but without new catalytic factors, copper prices might peak this month [1] Market Logic - The current copper price increase is due to concerns about US tariffs on refined copper, causing LME copper inventory in Europe to decline from nearly 70,000 tons in April to less than 15,000 tons, while COMEX copper inventory has risen from less than 100,000 short tons in April to over 450,000 short tons. Also, Trump's statement about the Fed chair and the market's increased expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut are beneficial for metals with strong financial attributes [1] Trading Strategy - No trading strategy is provided for now [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced slight gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.32%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.1% and 0.15% respectively [1] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba and JD.com rising nearly 3%, while Baidu and Meituan fell over 2%, and Tencent experienced a slight decline [1] - Barclays significantly raised its price forecasts for gold, silver, and copper, leading to renewed activity in copper and gold stocks, particularly with Zhaojin Mining hitting a historical high [1] - International oil prices rebounded to a two-week high, and the announcement of a merger between Sinopec and China Aviation Oil resulted in a general increase in oil stocks [1] - The AI healthcare sector saw a new era of growth, with internet healthcare concept stocks rising collectively [1] - Gaming stocks, which had been declining, saw a rebound, with MGM Resorts ending a five-day losing streak [1] Airline and Solar Industry - Airline stocks faced a significant drop in ticket prices, leading to a decline in the three major airline stocks, with China Eastern Airlines falling over 4% [1] - Six leading solar companies were reportedly summoned for discussions, resulting in a lackluster performance for solar stocks throughout the day [1] New Listings and Market Activity - Three new stocks were listed today, with MINIMAX-WP soaring by 109%, Jin Xun Resources rising by 29%, and Reborn Bio-B increasing by 41.6% [1] - Zhihui's stock surged over 20% on its second day of trading, reaching a market capitalization of 72 billion HKD at one point [1] Fund Flows - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) saw a net inflow of over 5.4 billion HKD, marking 23 consecutive days of significant investment [1] - The largest Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) rose by 1.5%, aiming for a third consecutive day of gains, while the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) also saw a net inflow exceeding 3.3 billion HKD [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Options: Sell Puts [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is currently facing tight mine - end supply, increased refined copper exports due to foreign premium, and reluctant selling of scrap copper. Demand is relatively weak due to high prices and holiday factors. However, if copper prices fall, downstream replenishment enthusiasm is expected to rise. Therefore, it is recommended to buy and hedge in batches at low prices between 98,000 yuan/ton and 98,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the short - term decline of copper varieties caused by the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 8, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 103,200 yuan/ton and closed at 101,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,660 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.98% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quotation range was a discount of 180 yuan to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 65 yuan, narrowing by 15 yuan from the previous day. The spot mainstream price was between 101,470 - 102,700 yuan/ton. The main futures contract showed a trend of rising and then falling. It is expected that the spot will remain at a discount, and attention should be paid to the impact of market purchasing trends on the discount as the delivery date approaches [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: Trump plans to "manage" Venezuela for many years and extract its oil reserves, and proposes to increase the US military budget from 1 trillion US dollars to 1.5 trillion US dollars in fiscal year 2027 [3]. - Employment data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations and still at a historical low. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [3]. - Mine end: Codelco's Chilean production area produced 1.333 million tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The target production in 2026 is 1.344 million tons [3]. 3.1.4 Smelting and Import - Fitch's BMI maintains the average copper price forecast for 2026 at 11,000 US dollars/ton. It points out that supply shortages, green transformation demand, and the Fed's interest - rate cut policy will support copper prices, but the weak real estate market in China may offset some demand growth. The global refined copper production growth rate is expected to drop to 1.1% in 2026, and the market may face shortages [4]. 3.1.5 Consumption - S&P Global says that the growth of AI and the defense industry will increase global copper demand by 50% to 42 million tons by 2040. If recycling and mining are not improved, the annual supply shortage may exceed 10 million tons [5]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,850 tons to 141,075 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 12,211 tons to 108,685 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on January 8 was 273,800 tons, a change of 16,200 tons from the previous week [5].

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Copper prices continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper dropping to around 100,000. The decline was due to the margin increase of silver by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which led to profit - taking of long - position funds in precious and base metals. Also, high copper prices suppressed downstream demand. Although the medium - term macro and fundamental aspects are still favorable, short - term prices face correction pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 100,000 for the main Shanghai copper contract [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices fell, with the main Shanghai copper contract reaching around 100,000. The price drop was caused by the margin adjustment and weak downstream demand. Domestic social inventory increased by 16,200 tons to 273,800 tons compared to Monday. The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 4,834 yuan/ton, but the scrap copper substitution advantage remained obvious. The spot import loss shrank to 788 yuan/ton, and both import and export windows were closed. Short - term, it is advisable to watch the 100,000 support level of the main Shanghai copper contract [9]. 3.2 Industry News - S&P Global stated that the growth of AI and the defense industry will increase global copper demand by 50% to 42 million tons by 2040 (from 28 million tons in 2025). Without improved recycling and mining, the annual supply shortage could exceed 10 million tons [9]. - Codelco achieved a slight increase in copper production in 2025, reaching 1.333 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase. Its 2026 target production is 1.344 million tons [9].

Market Overview - On January 8, 2026, the main copper futures contract opened at 103,200 CNY/ton and closed at 101,220 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous trading day [2] - The night session saw the contract open at 101,660 CNY/ton and close at 101,230 CNY/ton, down 0.98% from the afternoon close [2] Spot Market Situation - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot price ranged from a discount of 180 CNY to a premium of 50 CNY/ton, with an average discount of 65 CNY, narrowing by 15 CNY from the previous day [3] - Mainstream spot prices were between 101,470 CNY and 102,700 CNY/ton, with the futures contract showing a high-low fluctuation before closing at 101,730 CNY/ton [3] - The contango price difference remained between 110 CNY and 200 CNY/ton, with import losses estimated at 550-800 CNY/ton [3] Important News Summary - U.S. President Trump indicated that the U.S. would manage Venezuela for years and exploit its oil reserves, proposing a military budget increase from 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion USD for FY 2027 [5] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 208,000, slightly below market expectations, while the previous figure was revised up to 200,000 [5] - Codelco's chairman stated that the company achieved its copper production growth target for 2025, with a slight increase of 0.4% to 1.333 million tons, despite a fatal accident at its largest mine [5] Smelting and Import Insights - Fitch's BMI maintained its 2026 copper average price forecast at 11,000 USD/ton, citing supply tightness and green transition demand as key price supports, although weak real estate in China may offset some demand growth [6] - Global refined copper production growth is expected to slow to 1.1% in 2026, with potential market shortages influenced by the recovery progress of major mines [6] Consumption Outlook - S&P Global forecasts a 50% increase in global copper demand by 2040, reaching 42 million tons, driven by AI and defense industries, with a significant need for copper in electrification [7] - The report warns of potential annual supply shortages exceeding 10 million tons if recycling and mining do not improve [7] Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks decreased by 2,850 tons to 141,075 tons, while SHFE stocks increased by 12,211 tons to 108,685 tons [7] - As of January 8, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 273,800 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons from the previous week [7] Strategy Recommendations - The current copper market is characterized by tight supply and increased exports due to external premiums, while demand remains relatively weak due to high prices and holiday factors [8] - A cautious bullish strategy is recommended, with buying suggested in the range of 98,000 CNY/ton to 98,500 CNY/ton [8]

（文华综合） 早间期市氛围偏空，沪铜跌幅有所扩大至2%之上。在亢奋的多头情绪降温后，铜价出现回落，且市场 也开始审视供需现实情况，最近国内精铜社会库存持续累积，现货贴水，暗示下游需求受到抑制。 ...

Group 1 - The proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources has been submitted to the EU for antitrust review, indicating that the EU does not foresee significant competition issues with the merger [1] - The European Commission is expected to make a decision on the antitrust matters by February 10, while Canada has already approved the transaction [1] - The European Commission is also evaluating the merger under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation, aimed at preventing unfair competition from non-EU companies receiving government subsidies, with a decision due on February 3 [1] Group 2 - The merger was announced in September of last year, aiming to create the fifth-largest copper company globally and marking the second-largest merger in mining history [1]

摩根大通：将江西铜业A股评级上调至中性。 ...