【冠通研究】 美指回弹铜价承压 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，日内震荡承压。海外宏观美联储降息预期继续博弈，且美联储 独立性近日遭质疑，下周美国国会迎来关键投票，决定美联储的独立性。供给方面，智 利国有铜业公司（Codelco）上调对于事故损失的估计，下调了 2025 年的产量目标，5 月精炼铜产量同比增长 14.0%，精铜矿港口库存去化至近五年低位水平，冶炼厂 TC/RC 费用继续企稳回升，长协订单有盈利，现货订单依然亏损，硫酸价目前处于历史同期高 位水平，支撑冶炼厂利润，目前 8 月仅 1 家冶炼厂有检修计划，且华东新投产的冶炼厂 开始生产，预计精铜产量波动幅度不大，冶炼厂三季度后期或因矿端资源偏紧及硫酸胀 库而减产停产。需求方面，下游需求表现为不温不火，新增订单有增加，临近金九银十 旺季，行情下方有支撑，上期所库存近两日下滑库存低位区间震荡。综合来看，基本面 暂无明显变动，需求处于淡季尾端，暂无向上驱动力，但下方有韧性。美指受降息影响 前期下挫，底部获支撑有回弹，压制铜上方高度，关注近日美联储职位消息及后续降息 情况。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a closing drop of 0.53%, as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September have been largely priced in [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The LME copper inventory has seen limited accumulation recently, while domestic refined copper social inventory has increased but remains at a relatively low level [1] - The current processing fee for domestic copper concentrate is still low, indicating a continued tight supply situation, although the smelting sector is performing adequately [1] Group 2: Inventory and Demand - As of August 28, the domestic market's electrolytic copper inventory stands at 127,900 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons compared to August 25 [1] - There has been an increase in imported copper arrivals during the week, but downstream purchasing demand is relatively weak as the month-end approaches, leading to stable warehouse outflow and a rise in inventory [1] - Due to the low price difference between refined and scrap copper, the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper has increased, contributing to the overall low level of domestic refined copper social inventory [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum announced plans to establish a joint venture with its controlling shareholder, Chalco Group, and its subsidiaries, Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd., Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co., Ltd., and Chalco Capital Holdings Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1 - The company intends to invest RMB 300 million in cash and physical assets, acquiring a 20% stake in the joint venture [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Policy factors, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment all have significant impacts on prices. For example, the Fed's stance affects the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and the "anti -内卷" policy impacts the iron alloy market. In the short term, most sectors are expected to be volatile, and investors need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and market sentiment [3][6][33] Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes the application of satellite - connected terminal devices; global hedge funds increase their bets on Chinese stocks in August; 14 wealth management companies see a net increase of about 1.8 trillion yuan in management scale in July; Zhongji Xuchuang expects mass production and shipment of 1.6T products and samples of liquid - cooled products [2] - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is that although the market may fluctuate in the short term after continuous rises, the general direction is to go long on dips [3] Treasury Bond - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The national industrial enterprise profit from January to July decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to promote service exports. The central bank conducted 4058 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1745 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, but July's social financing and credit data are weaker than expected. Exports may face pressure. With the central bank's support, funds are expected to be loose. Interest rates may decline, but the stock - bond seesaw effect needs attention, and the bond market may be volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The New York Fed Chairman's neutral - dovish stance increases the probability of a Fed rate cut. The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and December. Historically, gold benefits from fiscal deficits, and silver is driven by Fed easing expectations. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices decline. LME copper inventory increases, and domestic copper inventory shows different trends. The Fed's dovish stance increases the probability of a September rate cut, but the equity market's optimism fades. Copper prices are expected to be strong and volatile [10][11] Aluminum - **Market**: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices decline. Domestic aluminum inventory is low, and demand is expected to improve as the off - season transitions to the peak season. The Fed's dovish signal strengthens the expectation of a September rate cut. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported in the short term [12] Zinc - **Market**: Shanghai zinc index rises slightly, and LME zinc falls. Zinc ore inventory rises, and refined zinc imports decrease. The Fed's dovish stance strengthens the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [13] Lead - **Market**: Shanghai lead index falls, and LME lead falls. Lead ore inventory rises slightly, and downstream demand recovers. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [14][16] Nickel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel price rises slightly. Nickel ore supply is loose, and stainless steel demand is weak. Although the macro environment is positive, the supply - demand situation restricts nickel price increases. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [17] Tin - **Market**: Shanghai tin price rises slightly. Myanmar's tin production recovery is slow, and domestic tin smelting enterprises' operating rates are low. Electronic and photovoltaic demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The spot index is flat, and the futures price falls. Lithium mica supply decreases, and the price has bottom support. The market awaits new drivers and needs to pay attention to overseas supply and industry news [19] Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index falls. Domestic and overseas ore supply disturbances support prices. The Fed's dovish stance drives the non - ferrous sector. The short - term decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [20] Stainless Steel - **Market**: The stainless steel futures price rises slightly. Social inventory increases, and short - term demand is weak. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve [21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rises. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory increases. The cost is supportive, and market activity increases. However, the large futures - spot price difference may cause delivery pressure [22][23] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fall. The overall commodity market cools down. Steel production is high, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to fall [25][26] Iron Ore - **Market**: The iron ore futures price falls slightly. Overseas iron ore shipments are stable, and port inventory rises slightly. Steel mill profitability declines, and iron water production growth is limited. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [27][28] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price is stable, and inventory increases slightly. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the price adjustment space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and in the long term, it depends on policy and demand [29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is stable, and inventory decreases. The downstream glass industry's operating rate changes. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may rise gradually in the long term, but the upside is limited [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fall. The "anti -内卷" sentiment fades, and the market is affected by emotions. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities. Manganese silicon supply pressure remains, and ferrosilicon supply also rises [31][33][34] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The industrial silicon futures price rises slightly. The industry has over - capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to industry policies [35][36] Polysilicon - **Market**: The polysilicon futures price falls. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production increases, and inventory transfers to the futures market. The price may adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory pressure [37] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU are volatile. Bulls expect price increases due to seasonality and demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro expectations and weak demand. The medium - term view is bullish, and the short - term view is to be neutral - bullish [39][43] Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil futures rise, while INE crude oil futures fall. U.S. EIA data shows inventory changes. Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro situation is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [44] Methanol - **Market**: The methanol futures price falls. Coal prices rise, domestic and overseas supply increases, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities in the future [45] Urea - **Market**: The urea futures price is stable. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Exports are the main demand variable. The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips [46] Styrene - **Market**: The styrene spot and futures prices fall. The BZN spread is low and has room for upward repair. Supply increases, and inventory accumulates. Demand is rising at the end of the off - season. The price may rebound when inventory decreases [47] PVC - **Market**: The PVC futures price falls. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The cost support is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [49] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The ethylene glycol futures price falls. Supply increases, and demand recovers from the off - season. The port inventory may accumulate in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [50] PTA - **Market**: The PTA futures price falls. Supply decreases due to unexpected maintenance, and demand improves. The processing fee is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on dips following PX [51] Para - Xylene - **Market**: The PX futures price falls. PX load is high, and downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance. PX inventory is expected to be low, and the valuation has support. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The PE futures price falls. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance. Inventory is high but decreasing, and demand may improve in the peak season. The price may rise in the long term [53] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The PP futures price falls. Supply increases, and demand is weak. Inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55] Agricultural Products Live Pig - **Market**: Pig prices mostly fall. The short - term logic is to relieve pressure through weight reduction. Policy support may suppress bearish sentiment, and the far - month contract has a reverse spread strategy [57] Egg - **Market**: Egg prices mostly rise. Supply is stable, and demand is slow. The supply - demand negative cycle remains. It is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [58] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybeans fall slightly, and domestic soybean meal is weak. U.S. soybean production may decrease, but global supply is abundant. The domestic soybean meal market has strong supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range [59][61] Edible Oils - **Market**: Domestic edible oils are volatile and weak. Malaysian palm oil exports increase, and production shows different trends. Domestic soybean oil inventory may increase, and rapeseed oil inventory may decrease. The price is expected to be strong and volatile [62][63] Sugar - **Market**: Zhengzhou sugar futures price falls. Brazil's sugar production may be affected by weather, and the international and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase. The price is likely to continue to fall [64][65] Cotton - **Market**: Zhengzhou cotton futures price is volatile. The downstream market may improve in the peak season, and domestic inventory is low. The price may rise in the short term [66]

铜陵有色（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000630） 公司覆盖 一体化布局的老牌铜企，资源自给率持续提升 | 投资评级：买入 | | --- | | [Table_Rank] | | 首次覆盖 | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-08-27 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 4.33 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 4.53/2.81 | | 总股本（百万股） | 12,794 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 10,528 | | 流通股比例（%） | 82.29 | | 总市值（亿元） | 554 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 456 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -16% 3% 22% 41% 60% 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 铜陵有色 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：许勇其 执业证书号：S0010522080002 邮箱：xuqy@hazq.com 分析师：黄玺 执业证书号：S0010524060001 邮箱：huangxi@hazq ...

Group 1 - China Aluminum (601600) announced plans to establish a joint venture with China Aluminum Group, Yunnan Copper (000878), Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium (600497), and China Aluminum Capital Holdings [1] - The company will contribute 300 million RMB in cash and physical assets, while partners will contribute varying amounts, totaling 1.5 billion RMB [1] - The ownership structure of the joint venture will be 25% for China Aluminum Group, 20% for China Aluminum, 20% for Yunnan Copper, 20% for Chihong Zinc & Germanium, and 15% for China Aluminum Capital [1] Group 2 - As of the announcement date, no specific agreements have been signed regarding the establishment of the joint venture [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Aluminum (02600) plans to establish a joint venture with several companies, including China Aluminum Group, Yunnan Copper, Chihong Zinc & Germanium, and China Aluminum Capital, with a total investment of approximately RMB 15 billion [1] - China Aluminum will contribute RMB 300 million in cash and physical assets, while China Aluminum Group, Yunnan Copper, and China Aluminum Capital will invest RMB 375 million, RMB 300 million, and RMB 225 million respectively [1] - Chihong Zinc & Germanium will contribute RMB 300 million in cash and equity from its subsidiaries [1] Group 2 - The ownership structure of the joint venture will see China Aluminum Group holding 25%, China Aluminum 20%, Yunnan Copper 20%, Chihong Zinc & Germanium 20%, and China Aluminum Capital 15% [1] - The joint venture will not be a subsidiary of China Aluminum, and its financial performance will not be consolidated into China Aluminum's accounts [1] - As of the date of the announcement, no specific agreements have been signed regarding the establishment of the joint venture [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Aluminum (02600.HK) plans to establish a joint venture with several partners, including Chalco Group, Yunnan Copper, Chihong Zinc & Germanium, and Chalco Capital, with a total investment of approximately RMB 15 billion [1] - China Aluminum will contribute RMB 300 million in cash and physical assets, while Chalco Group, Yunnan Copper, and Chalco Capital will invest RMB 375 million, RMB 300 million, and RMB 225 million respectively [1] - Chihong Zinc & Germanium will contribute RMB 300 million in cash and equity of its subsidiary [1] Group 2 - The ownership structure of the joint venture will see Chalco Group holding 25%, China Aluminum 20%, Yunnan Copper 20%, Chihong Zinc & Germanium 20%, and Chalco Capital 15% [1] - The joint venture will not be a subsidiary of China Aluminum, and its financial performance will not be consolidated into the company's accounts [1]

Report Date - The report was produced on August 27, 2025 [3] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 27, most domestic futures contracts ended in the red. Apples and Shanghai nickel rose over 1%. Polysilicon dropped over 4%, while coking coal and crude oil fell over 3%. Alumina, BR rubber, fuel oil, soybean No.2, and styrene declined over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) dropped 1.71%, the SSE 50 (IH) fell 1.85%, the CSI 500 (IC) decreased 1.51%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) tumbled 2.08%. In the bond futures market, the 2-year (TS) rose 0.02%, the 5-year (TF) climbed 0.06%, the 10-year (T) advanced 0.08%, and the 30-year (TL) soared 0.24% [6] Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 27, funds flowed into the CSI 500 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 300 2509 contracts, amounting to 3.741 billion, 1.151 billion, and 566 million respectively. Meanwhile, funds flowed out of the Shanghai gold 2510, Shanghai silver 2510, and SSE 50 2509 contracts, reaching 1.746 billion, 968 million, and 458 million respectively [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, facing pressure. The probability of a 25% Fed rate cut is currently 85%. The supply of copper is expected to be tight both internationally and domestically, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains low. Although the downstream market is in a slack season, there is an expectation of increased demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, while the industrial-grade was 79,300 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton. The import volume in July decreased by 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year. The production in August and September is expected to decline by 15% year-on-year. The demand is expected to increase during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, providing support for prices [12] Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. The EIA data shows a larger-than-expected decline in US crude and gasoline inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter. The price is expected to have limited upside potential, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13][15] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 30.7% last week. The expected production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% month-on-month but an increase of 17.1% year-on-year. The downstream demand is weak due to factors such as funds and weather. The cost support from crude oil has weakened. The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [16] PP - The downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.18 percentage points to 49.53%. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 87%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing as the consumption peak ends and OPEC+ accelerates production. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. However, the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The PP market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17][18] Plastic - The plastic operating rate remained at around 84%. The PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.53 percentage points to 40.00%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The plastic market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [19] PVC - The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.72 percentage points to 77.61%. The downstream demand is weak, and the export expectation has declined. The social inventory is still high. The PVC market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term [20][21] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and closed lower. The import volume in July increased significantly. The domestic production is increasing, and the inventory at mines has increased. The downstream demand is affected by environmental protection. The coking coal market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term, but the downside space is limited [22] Urea - Urea opened lower and closed lower. The spot market is weak and stable. The supply is expected to remain stable with the commissioning of new capacity. The demand from the industrial sector is resilient, but the demand for autumn fertilizers has not yet arrived. The inventory is at a high level. The urea market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short term [23][24]

自願公告 成立合資公司 本 公 告 乃 由 中 國 鋁 業 股 份 有 限 公 司（「本公司」）自 願 作 出。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 中國鋁業股份有限公司 葛小雷 公司秘書 中國‧北京 2025年8月27日 於 本 公 告 刊 發 日 期，董 事 會 成 員 包 括 執 行 董 事 何 文 建 先 生、毛 世 清 先 生 及 蔣 濤 先 生，非 執 行 董 事 李 謝 華 先 生 及 江 皓 先 生，獨 立 非 執 行 董 事 余 勁 松 先 生、陳 遠 秀 女 士 及 李 小 斌 先 生。 * 僅供識別 於2025年8月27日，經本公司第九屆董事會（「董事會」）第四次會議審議通過， 本 公 司 擬 與 中 國 鋁 業 集 團 有 限 公 司（「中鋁集團」）、雲南銅業股份有限公 司（「雲南銅業」）、雲 南 馳 宏 鋅 鍺 股 份 有 限 公 司（「馳宏鋅鍺 ...