从钢铁行业看中国价格复苏近在咫尺 20250627 摘要 明整个链条最脆弱环节已经触底。 Q&A 如何看待中国工业价格的复苏及其背后的供需关系？ 中国工业价格的复苏主要受供需关系变化驱动。过去几年，工业价格持续下行， 约束了供给，导致资本开支周期达到历史底部。部分行业逐渐走出供给过剩状 态，进入再资本开支过程。然而，中国大规模资本开支的可能性较小，因为脱 离债务周期的经济无法支持大规模投资。因此，企业在微观层面表现出谨慎态 度。从中下游制造业来看，其价格企稳和利润改善反映了供给约束带来的积极 影响。上游原材料板块则持续去库存，上游价格跌不动，这表明整个工业链条 正在见底。 钢铁行业在当前经济周期中的表现如何？ 钢铁行业经历了十年的产能收缩，目前已达到供需稳态。尽管建筑需求下降， 但钢铁行业通过减少投资实现了平衡。在经济周期底部时，钢铁价格不再下跌， 而利润却在不断上升。这反映出供给约束带来的利润修复，以及需求回落对钢 铁行业的影响有限。此外，贸易企业普遍持有现金而非库存，这进一步说明社 会库存处于低位。当上游原材料如煤炭和焦煤开始减产且价格跌不动时，这表 如何判断中国工业整体是否已经见底？ 从中下游制造业到上 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - In 2024, global offshore wind government auctions are expected to reach 56GW, setting a historical record. The solid-state battery industrialization is accelerating, with equipment companies beginning to deliver solid-state battery equipment in small batches to clients. Battery manufacturers plan to deliver full solid-state battery samples to clients between 2025 and 2027 [2][3] - The demand for AIDC electric equipment remains strong, driven by continuous updates in AI models requiring sustained computational power [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Wind Power - The global offshore wind government auctions are projected to reach 56GW in 2024, marking a historical high. The total installed offshore wind capacity is expected to reach 83GW by the end of 2024, with an additional 48GW under construction [3] - In Poland, Equinor and Polenergia have made a final investment decision for the Bałtyk 2 and 3 offshore wind farms, with a total capacity of 1.4GW and an investment exceeding €7.2 billion [3] Solid-State Battery - The solid-state battery industrialization is progressing rapidly, with equipment manufacturers successfully delivering solid-state battery production equipment to leading domestic clients. Strategic partnerships are being formed to develop solid-state battery materials and production equipment [6] - The consumer battery sector is seeing an increase in silicon content, with projections indicating that by mid-2025, the silicon content in batteries could reach 25% [6] AIDC Electric Equipment - The demand for AIDC electric equipment is expected to remain robust, supported by the ongoing advancements in AI technologies and the need for enhanced computational capabilities [9] Grid Equipment - In May, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 92.9GW, a year-on-year increase of 388%, while wind power installations reached 26.32GW, a year-on-year increase of 801% [10] - The State Grid Corporation of China has completed the equity transfer for a high-voltage direct current project in Greece, which will enhance connectivity between Crete and the European mainland [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: 1. Wind Power: Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, Wide Special Materials, Zhongji United, Daikin Heavy Industries, Times New Material, Hezhong Electric [2][5] 2. Lithium Battery: CATL, Xiamen Tungsten, Rongbai Technology, Tiannai Technology, Zhuhai Guanyu, Haopeng Technology, Shenghong Co., Ltd. [8] 3. AIDC Electric Equipment: Jinpan Technology, Mingyang Electric, Igor, Hezhong Electric, Shenghong Co., Ltd. [9] 4. Grid Equipment: Guodian NARI, Siyuan Electric, Samsung Medical, Jinpan Technology, Pinggao Electric, Oriental Electronics, Sifang Co., Ltd., Jinbei Electric [10]

会议预告 2025高工新能源新材料产业大会 —— 新材料·新动能·新生态 主办单位： 高工锂电、 高工储能、高工产业研究院（GGII） 总冠名： 英联复合集流体 会议时间： 2025年7月8日-9日 制造价值的重塑： 告别"实验室阶段"的制造模式，将消除"制造缺陷"作为核心，通过大规模、高 稳定性的智能制造，实现PPB级别的本征安全，让品质成为核心竞争力。 市场价值的重估： 将目光从国内价格战的泥潭，转向全球市场的蓝海。成功的关键不再仅仅是技 术输出，更是对国际法规、标准的深刻理解和主导，实现从"技术领先"到"规则引领"的跨越。 会议地点： 成都·邛崃·羊安新城会议中心（成都市邛崃市崃岭大道299号） 文末扫码报名 超越价格战，赢在系统力 面对全球需求增长与行业利润微薄的"冰火两重天"，中国锂电产业正从野蛮生长的"红海"阶段， 转向一场深刻的自我革命。 在第十八届高工锂电产业峰会闭幕式专场"产业链重整 新隘口攻坚 "上，一个明确的产业共识浮出 水面：要摆脱"增收不增利"的内卷困境，必须完成从"单点竞争"到"系统性价值创造"的战略跃 升。 五位产业链核心企业高层的演讲，共同揭示了这一新范式的内涵。未来的竞争，不 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant growth in the photovoltaic sector, with a 150% year-on-year increase in new installations, reaching 197.85 GW from January to May 2025 [4] - Wind power installations also saw substantial growth, with a 801% year-on-year increase in May, totaling 26.32 GW, supported by policy incentives [4] - The report emphasizes the ongoing advancements in the lithium battery supply chain, particularly in solid-state battery development, indicating a strong future outlook for the sector [7] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - New installations in the photovoltaic sector reached 197.85 GW from January to May 2025, marking a 150% increase year-on-year [4] - In May alone, 92.92 GW of new capacity was added, reflecting a 105.48% month-on-month increase and a 388.03% year-on-year increase [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in material innovation and high-efficiency battery technologies [4] Wind Power Sector - The report notes that wind power installations reached 46.28 GW in the first five months of 2025, a 134% year-on-year increase [4] - The significant growth in installations is expected to support the performance of companies in the supply chain during Q2 [4] - The report recommends monitoring companies involved in offshore wind projects, as government policies are expected to catalyze further growth [4] Lithium Battery Sector - Companies in the lithium battery supply chain are advancing solid-state battery technologies, with several firms achieving significant milestones in energy density and production [7] - The report highlights that Ganfeng Lithium has established a comprehensive solid-state battery layout, achieving breakthroughs in energy density and cycle life [7] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned in the solid-state battery ecosystem and those providing innovative solutions in the supply chain [7] Energy Storage Sector - The report indicates that energy storage markets in Europe are experiencing a surge in policy support, creating structural investment opportunities [7] - Various European countries are implementing significant subsidies and regulatory changes to enhance energy storage capabilities [7] - The report recommends focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from these developments in the energy storage market [7] Overall Industry Outlook - The report concludes that the electric power equipment industry is experiencing positive fundamental changes and potential catalysts, maintaining an overall "Recommended" rating for the sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Xingyuan Material's factory in Malaysia marks a significant milestone in the global high-end separator manufacturing sector, aiming to escape domestic market competition and establish an independent overseas pricing system to enhance profitability [1][6][12] Group 1: Investment and Production Capacity - The total investment for the Malaysian factory is nearly 5 billion RMB, with an annual production capacity planned to reach 2 billion square meters, making it the largest production base for lithium-ion battery separators and solid-state battery rigid skeletons globally [1][6] - The factory has already received a substantial number of order intentions, indicating a strong market demand driven by battery manufacturers' capacity expansion in Southeast Asia [1][2] Group 2: Pricing Power and Market Strategy - The core strategic value of the overseas expansion is the acquisition of "independent pricing power," allowing the company to set prices based on international market supply and demand, certification barriers, service costs, and product technological added value [3][6] - The company anticipates a structural supply shortage in the overseas high-end separator market by the end of 2026, which will provide significant bargaining advantages for firms with localized advanced production capacity [6][12] Group 3: Technological Foundation - The company's confidence in seeking independent pricing power stems from its undisputed technological strength in the high-end separator field, with a product matrix that meets global market demands for higher safety, efficiency, and longevity [7][9] - The high-performance coated separator series, including nano-fiber coated, polyimide coated, and aramid coated separators, are key tools for penetrating overseas markets, providing essential safety guarantees for lithium batteries [9][12] Group 4: Industry Collaboration and Globalization - The establishment of the Malaysian factory is part of a broader trend of systematic overseas expansion of China's lithium battery industry, with a localized lithium battery industry collaboration model emerging in Southeast Asia [11][12] - The company’s strategic layout extends beyond Southeast Asia, with investments in Europe and North America, indicating a proactive approach to global supply chain security and market entry [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements and strategic collaborations of the company in the solid-state battery sector, emphasizing its commitment to innovation and market leadership in lithium battery materials and equipment. Group 1: Company Developments - The company is participating in the 2025 High-Performance New Energy Materials Industry Conference, where it will present its insights on solid-state battery materials, equipment, and processes [1] - A partnership with Blue Solutions has been established to develop next-generation solid-state lithium metal battery materials and equipment solutions, leveraging each company's strengths [1] - The company has built a comprehensive technical reserve system around core materials and processes for solid-state batteries [1] Group 2: Product Innovations - In the negative electrode materials sector, the company is developing new CVD-deposited silicon-carbon anodes suitable for semi-solid and solid-state battery routes [2] - The company has achieved pilot production of LATP and LLZO solid electrolytes, with a pilot production line capable of producing 200 tons annually established in Sichuan [2] - The company has introduced a composite membrane solution that meets the high energy density and safety requirements for applications like eVTOL [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1, the company reported revenue of 3.215 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.96%, and a net profit of 488 million yuan, up 9.64% year-on-year [3] - The high-margin coated separator and PVDF products have shown continuous growth, while the operating expense ratio has decreased year-on-year, contributing to overall profit improvement [3] - The automation equipment business also performed steadily, with Q1 revenue reaching 3.769 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.92% [3]

Core Insights - The lithium battery new materials industry is entering a high-speed development phase, with global lithium battery capacity demand expected to reach 7 TWh by 2030, driving continuous growth in the lithium new materials market [5] - The industrialization of new materials is accelerating, with high-performance batteries like fast-charging technologies gaining market penetration, making material innovation crucial for cost reduction and efficiency improvement [5] - AI is becoming a core engine for breakthroughs in next-generation battery technologies, with companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech integrating AI into various stages of battery lifecycle management [5] - Equipment companies are innovating to enhance production efficiency and cost control, focusing on improving material processing precision, developing solid-state battery-specific equipment, and upgrading automation processes [5] Event Overview - The 2025 High-Performance Energy Storage Industry Summit will be held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, focusing on commercial transformation and restructuring [2][4] - The 2025 High-Performance New Energy Materials Industry Conference will take place in Chengdu, Sichuan, emphasizing new materials, new dynamics, and new ecosystems [4] Key Highlights - The summit will gather over 100 leading companies from various sectors, with more than 300 executives from the lithium battery industry chain participating [8] - The event will feature technical exchanges, new product showcases, and the release of a new energy materials industry report by GGII [8] - An award ceremony for innovative companies in the new energy materials sector will be held during the conference [8] Solid-State Battery Insights - The solid-state battery industry is entering a critical phase for cost reduction, with current costs for sulfide solid-state batteries ranging from 3.7 to 6.5 yuan/Wh and polymer composite electrolytes costing about 2 to 3.5 yuan/Wh [7] Conference Agenda - The agenda includes various sessions on new materials applications, innovation paths, and zero-carbon manufacturing, featuring presentations from industry leaders and experts [9][10][11]

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本周市场连续小幅反弹，是有多方因素共振所形成的。 首先是个别锂电主导企业 7月订单情况较好，近期在市场上确实有补库的操作，成交氛围略好于前期； 周三，生态环境部发布会传出消息，八部门近日联合启动全国非法倾倒处置固体废物专项整治行动，如 果提锂固废治理力度再度加码，可能会抬升矿石提锂的生产成本； 周四，智利SQM宣布裁员5%，成本最低的盐湖也有点扛不住了； 周五，小米YU7的爆单让新能源市场彻底亢奋，股市和期市都受益良多。正是在现实和预期都有所修复 的情况下，本周碳酸锂市场终于喘了口气。 -广告- 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 明明下游需求即将进入淡季，某家锂电巨头嚷着 7月要减产；明明市场供应依然较为宽松，盐湖即将步入 高产期。 在基本面不被看好的情况下， 本周国内碳酸锂价格却连续飘红，硬是把电池级碳酸锂价格抬到了6万3， 这出乎许多市场人士的预料。 对此，ICC鑫椤锂电认为， 碳酸锂市场大的趋势并未扭转，仍处于磨底过程中。 2025（第三届）中国固态电池 技 术 发 展 与 市 场 展 望 高 峰 论 坛 END 不过，兴奋归 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in the lithium battery industry, including significant orders, market trends, and price fluctuations in key materials such as lithium carbonate, ternary materials, and iron phosphate. Industry Highlights - Anker Innovations has terminated its partnership with Amperes due to recent power bank recalls and has established a new order with CATL for 45 million battery cells over three years [3] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its temporary ban on cobalt exports for three months to alleviate market pressure from high inventory levels [4] - The upcoming Honor Magic V5 smartphone will feature a 6100 mAh silicon battery with 25% silicon content, promising improved performance and longer battery life compared to its predecessor [5] Lithium Battery Material Market 1. Lithium Carbonate - Domestic lithium carbonate prices have shown slight rebounds, with stable prices around 58,000 RMB/ton. However, the overall trend suggests potential declines due to supply-demand imbalances [8][9] 2. Ternary Materials - Strong demand for nickel materials was noted in June, with some manufacturers experiencing panic buying. Prices for ternary materials remain stable following the extension of cobalt export bans [10][11] 3. Iron Phosphate - The iron phosphate market remains stable, with a slight decrease in expected sales volume for June. The fourth-generation products are actively being promoted [12][14] 4. Anode Materials - Anode material prices have fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions, impacting profit margins for manufacturers. Demand remains weak with no significant increases expected in the short term [15][17] 5. Separators - Separator production is expected to maintain levels from June, with price reductions from lower-tier manufacturers to boost sales. A new separator production facility in Malaysia is set to enhance capacity [18] 6. Electrolytes - Electrolyte shipments did not show significant growth in June, with some manufacturers experiencing slight increases. Prices remain stable, with low operating rates affecting profitability [19][20] Downstream Market 1. Batteries - Domestic battery manufacturers are experiencing varied order volumes, with significant contributions from the new energy commercial vehicle sector. The energy storage market remains optimistic [20][21] 2. Vehicle Sales - Passenger vehicle sales reached 548,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.58%. New energy vehicle sales were 283,000 units, up 32.68% year-on-year [23] 3. Energy Storage - The energy storage market continues to thrive, with significant projects underway both domestically and internationally. Recent procurement projects have set new low prices for lithium iron phosphate battery systems [24]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约涨 1.15%至 61500 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 400 元/吨至 60600 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 400 元/吨至 59000 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 200 元/吨至 58070 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 220 吨至 22590 吨。 2. 供应端，周度碳酸锂产量环比增加 305 吨至 18767 吨，其中云母增量相对明显，6 月碳酸锂产量环 比增加超 9%。需求端，周度库存周转天数均有增加，磷酸铁锂相对增加明显，6 月两大正极材料消 耗碳酸锂环比下降 10%。库存端，周度库存环比增加 1936 吨至 136837 吨，其中下游增加 269 吨至 40635 吨，中间环节增加 1260 吨至 37170 吨，上游增加 407 吨至 59032 吨。 3. 当前价格水平基本处在阶段性底部位置，从锂矿价格 600-610 美金来看短期仍有支撑，但是基本面 ...