中信证券：中报季的应对思路和准备 二是港股近期偏弱的原因是什么？后续是否还有机会？我们认为港元流动性收紧预期、配股以及减持的增加将 阶段性制约港股贝塔，但经历行业性动量的修正后，阿尔法机会在未来两个月将会更为凸显，尤其是在电车、 创新药和新消费领域。 三是国内价格信号相对偏弱，外资现在对中国资产的态度如何？我们认为今年迄今外资对中国资产最大的态度 变化在于关注度、耐心和长期认可度，但是短期受制于一系列因素，实际的资金流入不明显，趋势性回流需要 继续等待。 四是微盘股的下跌是否会引发系统性波动？我们认为概率很小，有了去年初的经验，不少量化产品已提前做了 风控准备，但在高估值、高拥挤度和弱基本面环境下，中报季还会继续下修估值。 五是中报季潜在的外部风险是什么？我们认为特朗普用"232调查"来替代行政令推动行业性关税落地，以及减 税法案落地后资金阶段性回流美元资产可能会对非美市场造成不利影响。 中信建投：港股调整拖累，A股赛道轮动 前期表现强势的港股新消费和创新药板块，近期出现较明显调整，带动A股相关板块也出现较大波动，目前港 股流动性和风险偏好均受到冲击，可能仍将持续一段时间。内部基本面延续内需偏弱+结构性景气的 ...

量化周报 市场整体风险较低 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ➢ 择时观点：市场整体风险较低。当下流动性保持上行趋势，分歧度保持下行 趋势，景气度保持上行趋势，ERP 保持极值状态，三维择时框架继续满仓。从技 术形态来看，上涨波段的中断减弱了短期内突破的可能性，但整体回调表现出缩 量特征且未突破前期低点，并且不远处有支撑，整体风险较低。 ➢ 指数监测：国证信创大幅流入。通过对同一指数对应的 ETF 规模进行合并并 剔除涨跌幅影响，我们计算了各指数 ETF 产品总体申购/赎回份额情况。近 1 周 ETF 产品申购流入增速快的有：国证信创、港股通医药、中证信创、科创 AI、国 证油气。近 1 周国证信创、深证红利、中证信创、国证价值、细分机械份额流出 最多。 ➢ 资金共振：推荐交通运输，石油石化，电子与非银行金融。我们监控两融与 大单资金的共振情绪，选择两类资金都看好的行业。两融资金流上周在医药中净 流入最多，净流入 12 亿元；大单资金上周在银行中净流入最多，净流入 22.2 亿 元。根据融资融券净流入与主动大单资金的净流入情况，本周推荐交通运输，石 油石化，电子与非银行金融。 ➢ 因子跟踪：估值和成长因子表现 ...

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 6 月 22 日 如何看近期转债信用面变动 ➢ 如何看近期转债信用面变动 近期进入转债评级调整的密集披露期，若转债评级被下调个券卖压或增强；但评级调整 期结束后，未被评级下调的弱资质转债，若25年信用出现一定的优化，那么债底的修复 或支撑转债价格上升；我们认为转债6月-7月信用挖掘策略具有较强的性价比，投资者 一方面需要跟踪转债评级下调的可能，另一方面跟踪近期个券财务情况边际变化，预测 个券25年信用的变动方向。我们认为转债评级主要评估24年的财务变动和信用情况，通 过定量和定性的分析得到最新的评级结果，但是转债信用挖掘的预期差在于个券25年及 未来信用情况的定价，这方面评级结果解释力度或相对有限。 我们构建了转债信用评分模型，跟踪转债25年Q1的信用情况变动，观察哪些转债在财务 指标和信用资质上有边际优化，通过个券的信用变动分析中观行业层面的信用变动。转 债信用评分模型与转债信用评级互为补充，为投资者分析转债近期信用变动情况和构建 信用挖掘策略提供参考。 信用评分共包含6个维度：规模水平、营运能力、盈利能力、景气度、杠 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China remains in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio unchanged. The large - scale debt resolution reduces local government financing costs and the probability of large - scale defaults and liquidity risks [2]. - The current loose money - market conditions are difficult to sustain, and the peak of the current round of money - market conditions is expected to occur between June 23 and July 4 [2][7]. - The stock - bond ratio favors bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly higher cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets [6][22][23]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In May 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.9%, slightly lower than the previous value of 9.0%. It is expected to reach its peak in April, decline to around 8.8% in June, and then gradually decline to around 8% by the end of the year [2][17]. - The money - market conditions of the financial sector were marginally stable and slightly loose last week. Given the marginal de - leveraging of the real sector, the loose money - market conditions are unlikely to continue [2][17]. - The net reduction of government bonds last week was 316 billion yuan, lower than the planned net increase of 218.6 billion yuan. This week, the planned net increase is 575.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of May, expected to rise slightly above 15% in June and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [3][18]. Monetary Policy - Last week, the average weekly trading volume and price of funds increased, and the term spread widened. After adjusting for seasonal effects, the money - market conditions were marginally stable and slightly loose [3][18]. - The yield of one - year Treasury bonds decreased to 1.36% at the end of the week. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, the lower limit of the ten - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.7%, and the lower limit of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.9% [3][18]. Asset Side - In May, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to April. The government's target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to further observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money - market conditions were marginally stable and slightly loose, but risk appetite continued to decline. Funds flowed more towards short - term bonds, resulting in a continued "bearish stocks, bullish bonds" situation with a value - dominant style [6][21]. - The yields of short - term and long - term bonds declined slightly. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.64%, the one - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 1.36%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84% [6][21]. - The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.52 percentage points last week and has outperformed it by 6.45 percentage points since July, with a maximum drawdown of 0.0% [6]. - The report recommends a portfolio of 40% dividend index, 40% SSE 50 index, and 20% 30 - year Treasury bond ETF [7][23]. 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - The A - share market declined with lower trading volume this week. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66% [27]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, communications, electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances had the largest increases, while beauty care, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and social services had the largest declines [27]. 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 20, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, power equipment, machinery and equipment, and pharmaceutical biology, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, steel, coal, and building materials [29]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were electronics, power equipment, communications, machinery and equipment, and computers, while the top five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, automobiles, and textile and apparel [29]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased from 1.37 trillion yuan last week to 1.22 trillion yuan this week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, electronics, computers, and public utilities [30]. 3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, communications, electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while beauty care, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and social services had the largest declines [34]. - As of June 20, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [35]. 3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 8% week - on - week [39]. - In terms of domestic demand, second - hand housing prices declined in the latest week, and quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The traffic volume of trucks on expressways increased, and the capacity utilization rate of ten industries showed a slight rebound in May and continued to rise slightly in June [39]. 3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of June (June 16 - 20), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 0.4%, - 0.2%, - 0.6%, and - 1.2% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell 0.45% [53]. - As of June 20, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.41 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [53]. 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equity to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to dominate. Dividend - type stocks are generally expected to have the characteristics of non - expansion, good earnings, and survival [8][23][57]. - The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [8][9][57].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in financing events and amounts in the primary market, indicating a growing interest from investors in various sectors [4][11]. Financing Overview - As of June 20, 2025, there were 118 financing events this week, an increase of 31 from the previous week, with a total financing amount of approximately 5.627 billion yuan, up by 2.959 billion yuan [4]. - Among these events, 23 had financing amounts of 100 million yuan or more, an increase of 10 from last week [4]. - There were 35 public exit cases this week, an increase of 9 from the previous week [4]. Financing Amount Distribution - A total of 69 financing events disclosed amounts this week, with the distribution as follows: - 4 events under 5 million yuan - 35 events between 5 million and 10 million yuan - 6 events between 10 million and 50 million yuan - 15 events between 50 million and 100 million yuan - 2 events between 100 million and 500 million yuan - 2 events between 500 million and 1 billion yuan - 1 event over 1 billion yuan [5]. Notable Investment Events - **New Energy Vehicles**: Kavin Automotive raised 1.209 billion yuan through a capital increase agreement, focusing on low-carbon and zero-carbon industrial ecosystems [7]. - **Quadruped Robots**: Yushu Technology completed nearly 700 million yuan in Series C financing, led by major investors including Tencent and Alibaba [7]. - **Display Panels**: Shenzhen Xinshi Technology secured approximately 600 million yuan in Pre-A round financing, focusing on silicon-based OLED micro-display technology [8]. - **Logistics**: Zhejiang China Light Textile City Group announced a 500 million yuan capital increase from ICBC Financial Asset Investment [8]. Industry Distribution - The financing events spanned 14 industries, with the top five being: - Equipment Manufacturing: 24 events - Electronics: 23 events - Healthcare: 19 events - Information Technology: 18 events - Consumer Goods and Services: 8 events - These five industries accounted for 77.97% of all financing events [11][12]. Regional Distribution - The top five regions for financing events were Guangdong, Jiangsu, Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, totaling 84 events, which is 71.19% of all events [16]. Financing Rounds - Angel and A rounds were the most active, totaling 78 events, with early-stage financing (A round and earlier) accounting for 67.80% of the total [20]. Exit Situation - There were 35 public exit cases this week, with the electronics sector leading in exit cases, followed by materials and energy-saving industries [27][29].

6月21日，九号公司公布2025年618全周期成绩单：全渠道销售额达33.5亿元，其中电动两轮车品类贡献 32.4亿元，同比增长93%，智能短交通全渠道销售额达1.06亿元，同比增长27%。 不仅在线上渠道全面发力，如今的"618"早已联动线上、线下，九号也不例外。今年"618"期间，九号电 动两轮车线上渠道销售额达21.5亿元，同比增长90%；线下渠道销售额为10.9亿元，同比增长98%。线 上线下（300959）双渠道快速增长，得益于九号公司的全渠道协同效应。今年"618"期间，九号将线上 爆款与线下"本土服务圈"结合，在超百座城市、7000多家门店开启"百城千店"直播联动，不仅为终端门 店持续引流，也为消费者带来更直接、更便捷的购车体验。 九号"618"业绩的底层支撑，在于以技术创新打破行业内卷。针对用户续航焦虑，九号自研RideyLONG 系统将续航提升20%；公司自研的RideyGo智能车机系统则可以真正实现"无钥解锁"等功能，推动两轮 车从"功能机"向"智能机"迭代。 近年来，九号公司一直保持着远超行业平均水平的业绩增速。刚过去的2025年第一季度，九号公司实现 营业收入51.1亿元，同比增长99 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Transport emphasizes the need to implement the State Council's executive meeting spirit and the requirements of the "Implementation Plan for Further Improving the Credit Repair System" [1] - The ministry plans to expedite the formulation of a management method for the list of seriously untrustworthy entities in the transportation sector [1] - A unified industry credit repair system will be established to create a new regulatory mechanism based on credit in the transportation sector [1] Group 2 - The initiative aims to promote the construction of a unified and open transportation market [1]

与4月比较，5月综合消费物价指数下跌0.05%。食物及非酒精饮品(-0.03%)大类的价格指数环比下跌， 主要是水果、鲜鱼、海产、食用油和蔬菜价格下调所致。复活节假期过后机票和酒店房价回落，以及旅 行团收费下调，令运输(-0.56%)和康乐、体育及文化(-0.42%)大类录得环比跌幅。衣履(+0.71%)和家居设 备及服务(+0.28%)大类的价格指数环比则上升。甲类及乙类消费物价指数分别下跌0.04%及0.06%。 智通财经APP获悉，澳门统计暨普查局资料显示，2025年5月综合消费物价指数同比上升0.19%，环比则 下跌0.05%;至今年5月为止的十二个月，综合消费物价平均指数较一年前同期(2023年6月至2024年5月) 上升0.38%。 至今年5月为止的十二个月，综合消费物价平均指数较一年前同期上升0.38%。各大类价格指数中，录 得较大升幅的有杂项商品及服务(包括个人护理、保险和首饰及钟表等，+2.41%)、教育(+1.9%)和医疗 (+1.44%)，而运输(-2.87%)和信息及通讯(-1.34%)的价格指数则下跌。甲类及乙类消费物价平均指数分别 上升0.35%及0.39%。 与去年同月比较，民生 ...

Economic Overview - Guangdong's economy is operating steadily with macro policies working in coordination as of May [2] - The industrial production shows stable growth with a 3.5% year-on-year increase in industrial added value from January to May, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous period [2] Industrial Performance - Significant growth in specific products: civil drones (113.0%), flat panel displays (102.3%), and servers (510.0%) in May [2][3] - The manufacturing sector grew by 4.0%, while mining decreased by 1.7% and electricity, heat, gas, and water supply fell by 0.2% [2] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's revenue reached 1.87 trillion yuan from January to April, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter [4] - Key areas such as transportation, information technology services, and business services contributed significantly to this growth [4] Consumer Market Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 1.926757 trillion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous period [5] - Notable growth in specific categories: home appliances (52.5%), cultural office supplies (47.1%), and furniture (67.7%) [5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment decreased by 8.9% from January to May, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.5% [6] - Industrial investment accounted for 37.2%, with automotive manufacturing and non-ferrous metal processing seeing increases of 18.4% and 11.3%, respectively [6] Price Index Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in May, with food prices down by 0.8% and non-food prices down by 0.3% [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.8% year-on-year in May, with a cumulative decline of 1.3% from January to May [7]

主力资金净流出的行业有21个，计算机行业主力资金净流出规模居首，今日下跌1.79%，全天净流出资 金48.53亿元，其次是传媒行业，今日跌幅为1.91%，净流出资金为29.88亿元，净流出资金较多的还有 电子、机械设备、汽车等行业。 分行业来看，申万所属的一级行业中，今日上涨的有9个，涨幅居前的行业为交通运输、食品饮料，涨 幅为0.88%、0.73%。跌幅居前的行业为传媒、计算机，跌幅为1.91%、1.79%。 6月20日，沪指下跌0.07%，深成指下跌0.47%，创业板指下跌0.83%，沪深300指数上涨0.09%。可交易 A股中，上涨的有1540只，占比28.49%，下跌的3647只。 资金面上，今日主力资金全天净流出218.12亿元，已连续7个交易日资金呈净流出状态。其中，创业板 主力资金净流出99.97亿元；科创板主力资金净流出18.21亿元；沪深300成份股主力资金净流出11.88亿 元。 行业资金流向方面，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，银行行业主力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日 上涨0.69%，全天净流入资金19.40亿元，其次是食品饮料行业，日涨幅为0.73%，净流入资金为13.56亿 元。 ...