软商品日报 软商品日报 | 二、日度数据监测 | | --- | | 品种 | 合约价差 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 5-9 | -70 | -20 | 1333 | -33 | 新疆 | 16396 | 2 | | | | | | | | 全国 | 16583 | 12 | | 白糖 | 5-9 | -13 | -1 | 50 | -22 | 南宁 | 5350 | 10 | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 5380 | 0 | 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 3 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.16%，报收 64.06 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.3%，报 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收 15250 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 8 手至 76.82 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格 指数 16395 元/吨，较前一日上调 50 元/吨。国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "Government Work Report" sets this year's main development targets: GDP growth of 4.5% - 5%, urban surveyed unemployment rate around 5.5%, over 12 million new urban jobs, CPI increase around 2%, coordinated growth of residents' income and economy, basic balance of international payments, grain output around 1.4 trillion catties, and a 3.8% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP [2][17]. - Fiscal policy remains active with a deficit - to - GDP ratio of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and plans to issue special bonds and local government special bonds to support various projects and economic development [18]. - Monetary policy is moderately loose, aiming to promote economic growth and price stability, using tools like reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and optimizing structural monetary policy tools [19]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft outlines 20 major indicators in different aspects such as economic development, innovation, people's well - being, green development, and security [3][20]. - The ongoing Middle East conflict has affected energy markets, causing supply concerns and price fluctuations in oil and natural gas [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q4 2025 grew at a 4.5% year - on - year rate, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.2% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month but down from 50.4% last year [1]. - In January 2026, social financing reached 7.2208 trillion yuan, up from 817.8 billion yuan in the previous month and 7.0546 trillion yuan last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Zhengshang Institute announced trading rules for the动力煤期货 2703 contract: 50% margin, 10% daily limit, and a maximum of 20 open positions per day for non - futures companies and clients [4]. - SHFE adjusted trading rules for fuel oil futures contracts, including changes in daily limit and margin ratios [5]. - In February, the national futures market's trading volume decreased by 10.6% year - on - year, while the turnover increased by 7.82% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative trading volume increased by 26.91% and the turnover by 55.18% year - on - year [6]. 3.2.2 Metals - Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates recommends a 5% - 15% allocation of gold in personal investment portfolios to diversify risks [7]. - CME lowered the initial margin for COMEX 100 gold futures from 9% to 7% and for COMEX 5000 silver futures from 18% to 14% [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - G7 and its allies are negotiating a critical minerals trade agreement to reduce dependence on Chinese resources and strengthen their supply chains [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The Middle East conflict has led to supply concerns, with Japanese refineries requesting the use of national oil reserves [10]. - European natural gas prices rose due to supply disruptions in Qatar, with the benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures up 10.5% to 53.87 euros per MWh, a 90% increase since the start of the year [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of late February, the prices of cotton, soybeans, and corn in the circulation field increased, reaching new highs in recent periods [14]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 5, the central bank conducted 23 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 297.5 billion yuan [16]. - On March 6, the central bank plans to conduct 800 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, leading to a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan in 3 - month outright reverse repurchase [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - The "Government Work Report" proposes measures in fiscal, monetary policies, and debt risk resolution [17][18][19]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft includes 20 major indicators and 109 major projects in six aspects [3][20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The inter - bank bond market was weak, with bond yields rising slightly, and treasury bond futures falling [25]. - Various bond indices and individual bonds showed different price movements, and money market rates mostly rose [25][26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On March 5, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9003, up 117 points, and the night - session closed at 6.9125, down 174 points [30]. - The US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.04, and most non - US currencies fell [30]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% is in line with expectations, and policies in various fields will maintain their trends [31]. - Huatai Fixed - Income suggests seizing trading opportunities in the bond market with a safety margin [31]. 3.4 Stock Market - A - shares rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.23%, the ChiNext Index up 1.66%, and over 4000 stocks rising [35]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell [35].

农产品日报 | 2026-03-06 库存有所回落，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2843元/吨，较前日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.49%；菜粕2605合约2318元/吨，较前 日变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.65%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3100元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差 M05+257，较前日变动-14；江苏地区豆粕现货2990元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+147，较前日变动-14； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3030元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M05+187，较前日变动-4。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2370元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差RM05+52，较前日变动-25。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会周三称，巴西3月大豆出口料为1,610万吨，高于上年同期的1,570万吨。 市场分析 近期宏观事件频发，需关注地缘冲突对于宏观及能源和运费方面的影响。当前国内油厂下游豆粕库存依旧处于近 年来的偏高水平且购销较为清淡，但受到美豆和前期巴西港口情况的影响叠加美豆价格上涨，节后国内豆粕价格 同步偏强运行，后续需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - Corn: After the Spring Festival, short - term supply is limited and prices are strongly supported. Pay attention to the volume of supply after the festival, especially in North China. If there is no expected selling pressure, downstream replenishment will push prices up. In the long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gaps [4]. - Starch: After the Spring Festival, with low inventory pressure, prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term. In the long - term, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory changes [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, India's production cut and ISO's adjustment of the global surplus estimate, along with strong crude oil, may boost prices. Domestically, post - holiday discussions on import policies and India's production cut lead to a strong - oscillating market [6]. - Cotton: Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, consumption - promoting policies, and good exports, demand is expected to improve. New - season planting area in Xinjiang will decline, so it is suitable for long - term investment [9]. - Eggs: Post - festival channel replenishment pushes up prices. Although production is in a slight loss, low current inventory and delayed chicken culling lead to a lower supply pressure in the near - term than last year. However, delayed culling will suppress prices during the rainy season, so an anti - spread strategy is recommended [13]. - Apples: After the Spring Festival, the sales volume slows down. Fruit farmers' general - quality fruit prices are stable, and high - quality fruit prices remain strong [15]. - Pigs: Post - festival consumption is in the off - season, and the supply pressure remains in the medium - term. Pay attention to changes in farmers' selling weight, second - fattening expectations, and frozen meat storage. Futures are easily affected by emotions [15]. 3. Key Points by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price data from 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05 shows changes in prices in different regions, such as a 10 - yuan increase in the prices in Jinzhou and Weifang for corn, and 0 - yuan change in the prices in Changchun and Shekou. The starch price in Weifang remained unchanged, while the processing profit of starch had a 0 - yuan change [3]. Sugar - Price data from 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05 shows that the prices in Liuzhou and Nanning were stable at 5390 yuan and 5350 yuan respectively on 2026/03/05, with a 10 - yuan increase in Nanning compared to the initial date. The basis in Liuzhou decreased by 22 [5][19]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - From 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 50 yuan, and the "仓单+预报" increased by 132. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 103, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 52 [9]. Eggs - From 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05, the prices in Hebei and Liaoning decreased by 0.06 yuan and 0.07 yuan respectively, and the basis decreased by 75 [13]. Apples - From 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05, the prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900 yuan, and the national inventory was 470.52 on 2026/03/05 [14][15]. Pigs - From 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.25 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.05 yuan respectively. The basis decreased by 260 [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on the export sales and shipments of US soybeans and soybean meal, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans, and the production forecasts of Brazilian soybeans from different consulting firms, as well as the planting intentions of Canadian rapeseed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - From February 26th, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 383,500 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the four - week average. Market expectations were for a net increase of 300,000 - 1,000,000 tons. Exports to the Chinese mainland net increased by 153,100 tons. The export shipment was 1,119,500 tons, a 38% increase from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the four - week average. Exports to the Chinese mainland were 669,100 tons. The new sales of current - market - year soybeans were 393,800 tons, and 0 tons for the next market year [1]. - From February 26th, US current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 255,800 tons, a 5% decrease from the previous week and a 31% decrease from the four - week average. Market expectations were for a net increase of 200,000 - 450,000 tons. The export shipment was 261,500 tons, a 44% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the four - week average. The new sales of current - market - year soybean meal were 327,200 tons, and 0 tons for the next market year [1]. - Brazil exported 7,113,749.80 tons of soybeans in February, a 11% year - on - year increase. The daily average export volume was 395,208.32 tons, a 23% year - on - year increase [1]. - Agroconsult expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 183.1 million tons, an 850,000 - ton increase from the initial forecast. If confirmed, production will grow by 6.4% and set a new record [1]. - AgResource estimates Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to be 182.43 million tons [1]. - Canadian farmers intend to increase rapeseed planting by 1.0% in 2026, reaching 21.8 million acres. Before the report, traders expected 22.3 million acres on average [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from February 27th to March 5th are presented in the report [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - Main broad - based indices may enter a stage of bottom - seeking and stabilization [3] - Gold prices are expected to show high - volatility range - bound movement in the short term. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation and the upcoming non - farm payroll report [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow the gold's trend in the short term, and its downside space may be relatively limited. Attention should be paid to COMEX inventory changes and global manufacturing PMI data [6][7] - For the chemical industry, short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and inventory pressure. The medium - term fundamentals are strong, but technical over - buying requires caution against correction risks [8] - For the agricultural products, the short - term upward space of corn is limited, and there may be a correction risk; peanut futures are expected to maintain range - bound movement; cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; soybean meal and soybean oil may fluctuate in a range; rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term; rapeseed oil should pay attention to the upper price platform pressure; the pig price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the farming side's slaughter situation; egg prices may continue to run at a low level, and medium - long - term attention should be paid to the farming side's replenishment and culling situation [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - For the metals, Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern; Shanghai aluminum operation requires caution, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended; alumina supply is expected to be in excess, but there is support near the cost line; cast aluminum alloy prices are strongly linked to Shanghai aluminum, and attention should be paid to cost and demand marginal changes; lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue the volatile and strong trend; industrial silicon may not have a trend market in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended; polysilicon trading is sluggish, and participation is not recommended [25][26][27][29][30][31][32] - For the black metals, stainless steel may fluctuate in the short term; steel prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be strongly volatile; iron ore may maintain a bearish trend, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and demand repair rhythm; coking coal and coke may maintain a weak - volatile pattern in the short term [33][34][35][36][37][38][39] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Information**: In 2026, the government work report set the tone of implementing a more proactive and effective macro - policy. The economy is in a mild recovery stage, with rising prices but a weak manufacturing PMI, indicating that the endogenous economic power is still being repaired. The low - interest - rate environment supports the valuation of equity assets, and the expected PPI recovery is beneficial to the cyclical sectors and the overall corporate profit expectations [3] - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the leading gainers included non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and electronics, while the leading decliners included coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and building decoration. The current market sector rotation shows a clear new - quality productivity orientation, with funds flowing from traditional cyclical, financial, and real - estate sectors to science - and - technology innovation, high - end manufacturing, and upstream material sectors [3] - **Reference View**: Main broad - based indices may enter a stage of bottom - seeking and stabilization [3] Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The US ADP employment in February added 63,000 jobs, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, strengthening the resilience of the labor market. The Middle East military conflict has entered the sixth day, causing concerns about energy supply and inflation transmission [4] - **Market Analysis**: On March 5, the Asian session of spot gold recovered part of the previous day's losses. The gold market is in a game between geopolitical risk - aversion demand and changes in monetary policy expectations. Strong employment data has led to a re - pricing of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The strong US dollar index suppresses the valuation of gold [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Gold prices are expected to show high - volatility range - bound movement in the short term. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation and the upcoming non - farm payroll report [4][5] Silver - **External Price and Inventory**: The silver market performs weaker than gold. The COMEX registered deliverable silver inventory has dropped to a very low level of 88.77 million ounces, a significant decrease of about 30% compared to early January. China has implemented export controls on silver since January [6] - **Market Analysis**: Silver presents a pattern of "physical shortage support" and "industrial demand concerns" intertwined. If the inventory level further decreases, it may strengthen the physical - level support. Geopolitical conflicts may suppress manufacturing demand [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Silver is expected to follow the gold's trend in the short term, and its downside space may be relatively limited. Attention should be paid to COMEX inventory changes and global manufacturing PMI data [6][7] Chemical Industry PTA - **Spot Information**: The East China spot price is 5,805 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 32 yuan/ton (+13 yuan/ton) [8] - **Market Analysis**: The US - Iran conflict has pushed up the cost price. The PTA processing fee has been significantly repaired. The average PTA processing interval in China is 416.31 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.13% and a year - on - year increase of 61.06%. The device start - up rate has rebounded to 76.53% (+6.17%). The industry shows a pattern of inventory accumulation, and the demand has been repaired after the festival [8] - **Reference View**: Short - term attention should be paid to the continuity of geopolitical disturbances and inventory pressure. The medium - term fundamentals are strong, but technical over - buying requires caution against correction risks [8] Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The spot price in East China is 4,170 yuan/ton (+196 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 14 yuan/ton (+90 yuan/ton) [9] - **Market Analysis**: After the festival, the production has steadily increased. The total production has reached 42.98 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.77%. The coal - chemical production is 15.83 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.96%. The port inventory in East China has increased. The demand has increased, but the high port inventory still suppresses the price [9] - **Reference View**: Attention should be paid to the cost - side oil price trend and the downstream resumption of work rhythm [9] Plastic - **Spot Information**: The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [10] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the start - up rate of polyethylene devices in China has decreased slightly. The demand side shows that the overall start - up rate of downstream enterprises is 18.22%. The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises is 57.97 million tons. The futures price has risen for four consecutive days due to the Iran situation. In the short term, polyethylene will mainly fluctuate in a range, and there may be upward space after inventory digestion and full resumption of work by downstream enterprises [10] - **Reference View**: It is expected that plastic will fluctuate in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [10] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1188 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions [11] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the overall start - up rate of soda ash is 86.77%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and the production is 80.70 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.61 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average. The market may enter a stage of game between weak reality and external factors [11] - **Reference View**: The futures market rebounded slightly yesterday. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on bottom - range fluctuations [11] Glass - **Spot Information**: The market price of 5mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area is 1023 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions [13] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the start - up rate of float glass is 71.19%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.58%, and the weekly production is 103.84 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13 million tons. The inventory has continued to accumulate. The terminal demand is weak, and the downstream start - up is weak. The market may be disturbed by global energy price surges and the two sessions [13] - **Reference View**: The futures market fluctuated narrowly yesterday. In the short term, it is recommended to adopt a bottom - range fluctuation strategy [13] Methanol - **Spot Information**: The spot prices in Zhejiang, Xinjiang, and Hebei have different fluctuations [14] - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the methanol main contract MA605 has decreased. The port inventory has decreased slightly. The domestic methanol industry start - up rate is high, but the demand from MTO and MTBE devices and traditional downstream industries is weak. The geopolitical trading logic and logistics uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz increase market uncertainty [14] - **Reference View**: The futures price may fluctuate in a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline due to the ebb of geopolitical premium or oil price fluctuations. Track the resumption progress of Iranian devices, port inventory reduction, and the increase in MTO device load [14] Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai are provided [15] - **Market Analysis**: The February USDA supply - demand report has limited adjustments to US corn data. Domestically, the corn quality in the Northeast is good, but the short - term supply is tight due to weather and state - reserve rotation. If the weather warms up, the market supply may increase, and downstream enterprises have limited willingness to accept high - priced corn [15] - **Reference View**: The short - term upward space of corn is limited, and there may be a correction risk [15] Peanut - **Spot Price**: Peanut prices are mainly stable, with individual regions having slight adjustments. The market trading is not active [16] - **Market Analysis**: After the Lantern Festival, the market trading is gradually recovering, and the supply may increase with the temperature rise. The demand from small food factories has not started, but some large oil mills have raised the purchase price. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak [16] - **Reference View**: Peanut futures are expected to maintain range - bound movement, and cautious operation is recommended [16] Cotton - **Spot Information**: The China Cotton Spot Price Index (CC3128B) is 16,583 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 16,396 yuan/ton [17] - **Market Analysis**: The US Department of Agriculture expects a decline in production and ending inventory in China and the US, and the macro - environment is favorable for demand. The new cotton planting will start in March, and the cotton planting area is expected to decline in the long term. The downstream enterprises are resuming work, and the peak consumption season is coming [17] - **Reference View**: Cotton prices will fluctuate in a range in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [17] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions vary [18] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, the external market trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and biodiesel - stimulated domestic demand. South American soybeans are in the harvest season, and the market expects a bumper harvest. Domestically, high costs and abundant supply are in a game, and the downstream replenishment is limited [18] - **Reference View**: Soybean meal may fluctuate in a range, and cautious operation is recommended [18] Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of soybean oil in different regions have slightly increased [19] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, geopolitical conflicts and bio - fuel policies have pushed up the price of US soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is entering the off - season, and the market is dominated by macro - emotions [19] - **Reference View**: Soybean oil has stopped rising and is adjusting. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [19] Rapeseed Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of imported powder meal in Macong Port is RM2605 + 40 yuan/ton, and the basis remains unchanged [20] - **Market Analysis**: The suspension of the 100% tariff on Canadian oil cakes is optimistic for US soybean demand, but the pressure from Brazilian soybean harvest may suppress the price. The supply is expected to recover, and the downstream demand is weak [20] - **Reference View**: The 2605 contract of rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term [20] Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Market**: The basis price of imported and pressed tertiary rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang is OI05 + 450 yuan/ton, and the basis remains unchanged [21] - **Market Analysis**: The US - Iran conflict and the expected US bio - fuel policy have driven up the price of domestic vegetable oils. The increase in the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed has limited impact. The current market is in the off - season, and the spot market is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment [21] - **Reference View**: For the 2605 contract of rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the upper price platform pressure and risk prevention [21] Pig - **Spot Market**: The average price of ternary hybrid pigs in major production and sales areas has decreased [22] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic pig market continues to be weak. The supply is abundant due to pre - Spring Festival concentrated slaughter and continuous release of production capacity. The demand is weak as consumers are still consuming pre - holiday stocks, and the slaughter enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The pig price is under pressure in the near term [22][23] - **Reference View**: Attention should be paid to the farming side's slaughter situation [23] Egg - **Spot Market**: The average egg price in the main production areas has decreased [24] - **Market Analysis**: The previous - period replenishment was relatively low, and the new - laying pressure is not large. The egg - laying hen inventory is still declining. The culling rhythm of old hens is slow, but the farming side's culling willingness may increase as the egg price falls. The demand is weak after the end of stocking, and the egg price may continue to run at a low level [24] - **Reference View**: Medium - long - term attention should be paid to the farming side's replenishment and culling situation [24] Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The spot price of East China copper is 101,575 (+145) yuan/ton, with a premium of 445 [25] - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side pressure is significant, with the domestic social inventory reaching a historical high. The copper concentrate processing fee is in a deep negative range, indicating a tight supply at the mine end. The demand shows a structural differentiation, with the downstream processing link weak but the power grid investment and new - energy - related orders strong. The short - term price is suppressed by high inventory and spot discounts, but there is support from geopolitical risk premium and post - Lantern - Festival resumption of work [25] - **Reference View**: It is resistant to decline when the sector sentiment is weak. Aggressive investors can participate at low prices when the sentiment is right, while conservative investors can wait and see [25] Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai spot aluminum price is 25,082 yuan/ton, up 706, with a discount of 140 [25] - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased the instability of overseas aluminum supply, boosting the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the supply is rigid. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased [26] - **Reference View**: Operation requires caution, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [26] Alumina - **Spot Information**: The national average price of alumina is 2,675 yuan/ton, up 4, with a discount of 125 [27] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of bauxite has increased, and the domestic alumina production capacity is being restored. The supply is expected to be in excess, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has continued to increase [27] - **Reference View**: In the short term, the long - and short - term forces are temporarily balanced due to overseas and domestic supply - side disturbances, but the supply - excess expectation remains unchanged [28] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy is 24,30

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market is in a state of uncertainty and volatility, affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, economic policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors have different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to risk control and market changes [22][61][75] Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market rebounded hesitantly. On Thursday, the stock index rebounded across the board, but the performance of different indexes was differentiated. The trading volume and positions of each variety decreased. It is expected to be high - volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips [20][21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The fiscal policy is stable, and the market sentiment is average. It is recommended to hold long positions in the T - contract lightly and pay attention to the information from the press conference [23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Macro - disturbances increase, and the domestic soybean and meal inventories are relatively high. It is recommended to have a bearish view, reduce the spread of MRM09, and use seagull put options [26][27] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuates and adjusts, and the domestic sugar price is relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on dips for Zhengzhou sugar and wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][32][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The biodiesel profit improves, and the oils fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to hold a short - term volatile view, consider reverse arbitrage for p59 and y59, and wait and see for options [35][36][37] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price in the production area is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn, hold a high - volatile view for the 05 corn, and expand the spread between 05 corn and starch [39][40][41] - **Hogs**: The supply is stable, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to short the far - month contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the short straddle strategy [42][44] - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanuts, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [45][46][48] - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it enters the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the June contract, wait and see for arbitrage and options [49][50][51] - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the price is firm. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high for the May contract and wait and see for arbitrage and options [53][54][55] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support below and fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to go long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, wait and see for arbitrage and options [57][58][59] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: During the "Two Sessions", the steel price continues to fluctuate. It is recommended to maintain a volatile view, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread, and wait and see for options [61][62] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, but the trend is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [65] - **Iron Ore**: Geopolitical conflicts increase, and the ore price fluctuates. It is recommended to hold a volatile view, wait and see for arbitrage and options [68][69] - **Ferroalloys**: The profit - loss ratio decreases, and it is recommended to partially take profit on long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [70][71][72] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment is changeable, and gold and silver are under pressure. It is recommended to temporarily leave the market and wait and see, wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75][76] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The Middle - East conflict continues, and the precious metals maintain a volatile pattern. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, wait and see for palladium, and conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [77][78][80] - **Copper**: It fluctuates in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [81][82] - **Alumina**: The overseas alumina price falls, and there is short - term production reduction in China. It is recommended to go short on rallies [84][85][86] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts affect the Qatari electrolytic aluminum plant, and the Middle - East situation is uncertain. It is recommended to fluctuate widely with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [87][88] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [91][92][93] - **Zinc**: It is recommended to buy on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [94][95][96] - **Lead**: It fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to buy high and sell low within the range, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98][99] - **Nickel**: The macro - situation weakens, dragging down the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro - sentiment to stabilize and then buy, wait and see for arbitrage and options [100][101] - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it follows the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro - sentiment to stabilize and then buy, wait and see for arbitrage [103] - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates within a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to supply - side policies. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and try shorting after the manufacturer hedges [104][105] - **Polysilicon**: The spot transaction price declines, and it is weak in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious about liquidity risks, wait and see for arbitrage and options [107] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk preference decreases, and funds continue to withdraw. It is recommended to buy after the price stabilizes on a pullback, wait and see for arbitrage and options [109][110][111] - **Tin**: The long - term resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the tin price may fluctuate and consolidate. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment, wait and see for options [113][114][115] Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Iran's blockade only targets ships from the US, Israel, and Europe, and the warring parties' stances are still tough. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the 04 contract in the off - season and then wait and see, wait and see for arbitrage [116][117][119] - **Dry Bulk Freight**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, supporting the rent at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the duration of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [119][120][122] - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon trading is in a dull period, and many industries in the EU support the carbon market. It is necessary to pay attention to the pre - issuance of CEA2025 quotas and the detailed rules of the new carry - over policy in China, and the geopolitical conflicts and policy trends in the EU [122][125][126] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical news is changeable, and US oil breaks through and rises. It is recommended to be bullish, wait and see for arbitrage, and take profit on out - of - the - money call options [129][130] - **Asphalt**: Under the background of geopolitical conflicts, the cost fluctuates sharply. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks, wait and see for arbitrage and options [131][132][133] - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract and pay attention to short - term geopolitical fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [134][135][136] - **LPG**: The supply is gradually tightening, and the freight rate soars. It is recommended to be bullish with fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [137][138] - **Natural Gas**: The market uncertainty is extremely high, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see, wait and see for arbitrage and options [140][141][142] - **PX & PTA**: PX reduces production preventively. It is recommended to be bullish on the aromatics sector, conduct positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [145][146] - **BZ & EB**: Refineries reduce production preventively, affecting the supply of aromatics. It is recommended to be bullish on the aromatics sector, conduct positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [147][148][149] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Iranian plants stop production, and Middle - East imports are affected. It is recommended to be bullish with fluctuations [150][151] - **Short - Fiber**: It follows the cost and strengthens. It is recommended to follow the cost - side strengthening, conduct 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [153][154][155] - **Bottle Chips**: The factory load gradually recovers. It is recommended to follow the cost - side strengthening, wait and see for arbitrage and options [157][158] - **Propylene**: The main raw material price rises. It is recommended to pay attention to the development of the Middle - East situation, the propylene market is active, and the price is bullish in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [159][160] - **Plastic PP**: PP production increases. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L2605 and PP2605 contracts, set stop - losses, hold short positions in the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread, set stop - losses, and wait and see for options [161][162][163] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price fluctuates. It is recommended to be bullish with fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [165][166] - **PVC**: It follows the price increase firmly. It is recommended to go long on dips, not chase high, wait and see for arbitrage and options [168][169] - **Soda Ash**: The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to be bullish with short - term fluctuations, take profit on the short - glass and long - soda - ash spread, and wait and see for options [170][171][172] - **Glass**: The price fluctuates. It is recommended to short on rallies or sell call options, take profit on the short - glass and long - soda - ash spread, and wait and see for options [173][174][175] - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously, pay attention to the 59 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [176][177] - **Urea**: It fluctuates. It is recommended to conduct range trading, wait and see for arbitrage and options [179][180] - **Pulp**: The supply - demand contradiction is slightly alleviated. It is recommended to buy on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the SP2605 - P - 5200 option [181][182][183] - **Offset Printing Paper**: High inventory suppresses the paper price. It is recommended to short on rallies, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [184][185][186] - **Logs**: The overseas price rises, and the spot price is stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to buy on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [186][187][188] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The increase in electricity consumption in the rubber and plastics industry narrows. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU05 and NR05 contracts, pay attention to the support levels, wait and see for arbitrage and options [189][190][191] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tire production starts to increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR05 contract, set stop - losses, hold the BR2605 - RU2605 spread, set stop - losses, and wait and see for options [194][195][196]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific views on various commodities, such as "偏空" for some commodities like corn starch, soybean meal, and rebar, and "偏多" for others like hot-rolled coil, palm oil, and aluminum [4]. Core Viewpoints - The market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the Middle East conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has led to increased uncertainty, higher inflation expectations, and suppressed the performance of the equity market [13][14]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external factors such as geopolitical events and policy changes. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress opened on March 5. The Government Work Report set economic growth targets of 4.5% - 5%, a target for the urban surveyed unemployment rate of around 5.5%, and a goal of creating over 12 million new urban jobs. The CPI is expected to rise about 2%. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft proposes 20 main indicators, including a 7% annual increase in R & D investment [6]. - The Middle East conflict has escalated. Iran is prepared for a US ground invasion, and the US is increasing resources to support the war for at least 100 days. The US 24 states sued to block new tariff measures [7]. - The central bank will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on March 6 [8]. - The Government Work Report emphasizes support for startups, housing security, and capital market reform [8][9]. - The US plans to regulate AI chip exports, and seven US tech companies signed a self - power - supply commitment [10][11]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is risk defense. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may outperform the weighted stocks. The A - share market rebounded, but geopolitical risks may suppress the equity market [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks may lower risk appetite, push up inflation expectations, and lead to a decline in bond yields [14]. Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Steel orders are acceptable, but high inventory suppresses prices. Real estate sales and new construction are weak, while infrastructure projects are gradually starting. Iron ore supply is abundant, and double - coking prices are expected to oscillate [15][16]. - The overall steel market is expected to oscillate. For iron ore, short - term high - position short orders can take profits, and long - term partial short orders can be held lightly. An arbitrage strategy for iron ore 05 - 09 can be considered [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The short - term price of double - coking may oscillate. Supply is recovering faster than demand, but rising international energy prices may support prices [19]. Ferroalloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by non - industrial forces. The short - term recommendation is to exit long positions and consider shorting manganese silicon at high prices [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash supply is high, and new capacity is coming online. Glass supply has both cold - repair and ignition plans. The current strategy is to wait and see [21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Copper - Short - term copper prices will oscillate widely due to geopolitical conflicts and high inventory. In the long - term, the tight supply of global copper mines supports the price [22][23]. Zinc - Zinc inventory has increased, and the operation should be based on a bearish and oscillating view [24]. Lead - Lead inventory has slightly increased. It is recommended to hold short positions [25]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a destocking state, but the destocking rate has slowed. Short - term prices will oscillate widely, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand situation is positive [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon can hold previous long positions and consider selling wide - straddle options. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton market will oscillate. The global cotton production in 2026/27 is expected to decline, and domestic cotton is in the destocking stage [30]. Sugar - The sugar market has a short - term supply surplus, but the surplus has decreased. The price will oscillate and rebound [32][33]. Eggs - Egg spot prices may stabilize, and the futures may enter an oscillating pattern. The short - term recommendation is to reduce short positions [35]. Apples - High - quality apple sources may continue to strengthen, and the futures may run strongly [36]. Corn - A 5 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be considered. Corn has short - term supply pressure, but low inventory supports the price [38]. Red Dates - Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the sales area's sales rhythm [39]. Pigs - In March, the pig market is expected to be in a state of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to secondary fattening and frozen product storage [40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical factors. The price has a high premium, and the increase is limited. Investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [42][43]. Fuel Oil - The short - term trading is mainly affected by geopolitical - led oil prices, and it is expected to enter high - level fluctuations [44]. Plastics - Polyolefin prices are supported by geopolitical factors, but a callback risk should be guarded against [45]. Rubber - Due to the conflict, tire exports may be affected. Attention should be paid to strategies to narrow the spread and opportunities to sell put options [46]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber at low prices, but be cautious about the rapid decline of energy prices [47]. Methanol - The short - term market is affected by geopolitical factors. The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there is great uncertainty [48]. Caustic Soda - Overseas chlor - alkali production has declined, and domestic caustic soda exports have increased. The 05 contract price may continue to rise [50]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow oil prices, and attention should be paid to post - winter - storage replenishment demand [50][51]. PVC - PVC may oscillate strongly in the short - term. The long - term supply - demand pattern has not improved, and an oscillating strategy can be adopted [51][53]. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend is dominated by oil prices and market sentiment. In the long - term, attention should be paid to device maintenance and demand recovery [54]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future supply of LPG is abundant, and the price is difficult to maintain at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Pulp - The market is in a multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to port inventory and product price increases [55]. Logs - The demand in Rizhao is recovering, and the price is supported by costs. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Iran conflict [56]. Urea - The urea futures market is emotional. It is recommended to short at high prices [57].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the agricultural sector, particularly the dynamics affecting fertilizer supply and agricultural product prices due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Geopolitical factors are driving fertilizer supply tightness, leading to increased agricultural product costs, with corn futures showing a significant upward trend [1][2]. - In Brazil's Mato Grosso state, corn production is expected to decline by over 8%, and national corn forecasts have been lowered by 1 million tons [1][2]. - In South Korea, rising rice prices have prompted the government to release 150,000 tons of reserve rice to alleviate supply pressures and stabilize prices [1]. - Domestic corn spot prices are experiencing widespread increases, with prices in regions like North China and Huanghuai rising over 1.2 yuan per jin, indicating a "one-sided" upward trend [2]. - A critical window for commodity rotation is identified, following a historical pattern where commodities move in a sequence: gold and silver lead, followed by copper, oil, and finally agricultural products [2]. - Current geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Iran, could lead to significant fertilizer supply disruptions, as Iran accounts for 10% of global fertilizer supply, and the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for transporting 25%-35% of ammonia and urea trade [2]. - The agricultural sector is transitioning from a phase of waiting for transmission to one driven by cost pressures and risk-averse positioning [2]. - The domestic agricultural sector has faced a three-year downturn, but signs of a potential reversal are emerging, as indicated by the forecasts from companies like Denghai Seeds [2].

农产品早报 2026-03-06 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 （1）据国际棉花咨询委员会(ICAC)最新预测，全球 2026/27 年度棉花产量预估下滑 4%，至 2480 万吨， 消费量预计持稳，为 2500 万吨。（2）据 USDA 数据显示，2 月 12 日至 2 月 19 日当周，美国当前年度 棉花出口销售 6.09 万吨，累计出口销售 205.07 万吨，同比减少 15.69 万吨；其中当周对中国出口 0.06 万吨，累计出口 9.85 万吨，同比减少 8.38 万吨。（3）据 Mysteel 数据显示，截至 2 月 27 日当周，纺纱 厂开机率为 64.6%，环比前一周上调 24.1 个百分点；全国棉花商业库存 536 万吨，环比前一周减少 5 万 吨。（4）据 USDA 数据显示，1 月预测 2025/26 年度全球产量为 2600 万吨，环比 12 月预测下调 8 万吨 ...