江苏是农业大省，也是农产品消费大省，保障农产品质量安全责任重大、意义深远。2月6日，《江苏省 农产品质量安全条例》经省十四届人大五次会议表决通过，将于5月1日起施行。当天，省人大常委会办 公厅召开新闻发布会，对条例进行解读。条例立足江苏省情实际，打造从田间地头到百姓餐桌的全过 程、全链条监管。同时，为更好满足群众对多样化、特色化、优质化农产品的需求，条例提出了一系列 更高标准、更为严格的措施要求。 突出江苏特色，承诺达标合格证为立法重点之一 "怎样因地制宜，制定一件符合本省实际的地方性法规，是贯穿此次整个立法过程的重点问题。"省人大 常委会法工委委员童春纲介绍，条例在强调凝聚各方监管合力的同时，突出了江苏特色。 转自：扬子晚报 条例细化了违规开具承诺达标合格证的行政处罚，规定为其他单位和个人生产、收购的农产品开证的； 规定开证主体之外的单位和个人开证的；冒用他人名义开证的将承担法律责任，被处以相应罚款。目 前，全省已建设承诺达标合格证服务站点1700余个。条例鼓励在销售场所"亮证"，鼓励食品生产企业、 餐饮服务单位和集中用餐单位购买具有追溯标识的农产品，保障老百姓明明白白消费。 保障"舌尖上的安全"，突出全链 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [3][10]. Core Insights - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes food security and agricultural modernization, reiterating the importance of "new agricultural productivity" and the continuous focus on seed industry revitalization, particularly in biological breeding [4]. - In livestock, there is a shift towards "strengthening" comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, with a focus on stabilizing the beef and dairy industries, and promoting dairy product consumption [4]. - The document highlights the importance of grain security, aiming to stabilize grain production at around 14 trillion jin, and introduces measures to enhance grain circulation efficiency [4]. - The report outlines the implementation of agricultural technology, including the integration of artificial intelligence with agriculture, and identifies key application scenarios such as drones, IoT, and robotics [4]. - The report suggests three main investment focuses: the recovery of the beef and dairy industries, the expected rebound in the pig cycle, and the continued advancement of the seed industry and biological breeding [4]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - The report indicates a comprehensive approach to regulating pig production capacity and acknowledges the success of measures taken to support the beef and dairy industries [4]. - It also mentions the introduction of multiple measures to promote dairy product consumption for the first time [4]. Crop Production - The focus remains on food security, with a commitment to stabilize grain production and enhance the efficiency of grain circulation [4]. - The report introduces a new round of initiatives aimed at increasing grain production capacity, particularly for oilseed crops like soybeans [4]. Seed Industry - The report emphasizes the ongoing implementation of seed industry revitalization actions and the acceleration of biological breeding industrialization [4]. - It notes the continuous mention of biological breeding in the Central Document over the past six years, highlighting its growing importance [4]. Agricultural Technology - The report outlines the path for implementing new agricultural productivity, emphasizing the need for technology integration, particularly in AI applications [4]. Agricultural Trade - The report advocates for the coordination of agricultural trade and production, promoting diversification of agricultural imports and supporting the export of competitive agricultural products [4].

| | | | V V > | | 2026年02月06日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標 潟 海 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一震荡。CBOT大豆表现强势,因对美豆出口预期转好。中央一号文件显示国产大豆继续推进单产提升，面积 方面出台保障政策,种植利润多项措施保护。本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强, 成交均价4298元/吨、溢价210- ...

农产品组 谢 义 钦 投资咨询号: Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com 资料来源:国泰君安期货研究所 豆粕仓单量 菜粕仓单量 豆油仓单量 仓单数量:豆粕(手) 仓单数量:菜粕 (张) 仓单数量:豆油(手) n i l l - 2019 30000 40000 1 | 1 | 20 | 25000 30000 30000 - 2025 20000 15000 20000 20000 10000 L 10000 10000 5000 06-30 12-31 05-02 12-31 03-02 06-30 12-31 01-03 03-02 05-02 11-02 03-02 06-30 08-28 01-03 08-28 08-28 01-03 11-02 05-02 11-02 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 农产品每日仓单合集 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 棉花仓单 生猪仓单 白糖仓单 仓单数量:生猪 (手) 仓单数量:白糖（张） 仓单数量:一号棉(张) - 20 ...

1. Reported Industry and Date - The report focuses on the agricultural product industry, dated February 6, 2026 [1] 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal market is weaker than the overseas market this week. The 05 contract is priced by imported Brazilian soybeans, and the pressure of its bumper harvest is approaching. The domestic market has limited bullish factors, and the rebound is weak. It is recommended to gradually reduce positions for the Spring Festival holiday [9] 2.2. Eggs - This week, egg spot prices have reached a peak and fallen. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot prices are in a seasonal decline. Futures prices are also weak. In the long - term, it is still a game about the degree of inventory reduction. It is recommended to roll and go long at low levels for far - month contracts [48] 2.3. Sugar - The raw sugar index fluctuates around the 14 - cent mark. Technically, the 10 - day and 10 - week moving averages suppress price rebounds. In the domestic market, the Zhengzhou sugar index first falls and then rises, with the 60 - day moving average and the weekly Bollinger middle - band suppressing prices. The market is currently treated as oscillating weakly [68][69] 2.4. Cotton - The overseas cotton market maintains a weak pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates and adjusts. The USDA monthly report is relatively bullish. The domestic market should pay attention to the planting intentions for the 2026/27 season and the actual reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area after the festival [90] 2.5. Corn - The spot price of corn is narrowly weak. The supply may increase in the first half of February and decrease in the second half due to the holiday. Demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is expected to pick up after the festival. The overall supply - demand relationship may be tight, and the price is expected to be strong [156] 2.6. Hogs - The spot price of hogs continues to fall this week. In the long - term, the supply of hogs is expected to increase slightly. Before the festival, both supply and demand will increase, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [202] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices of coastal soybean meal are slightly weaker than a week ago. Overseas futures of US soybeans are strong this week, mainly due to the news of potential additional Chinese purchases. The domestic market is weaker, and it is recommended to reduce positions for the festival [7][8][9] 3.1.2. Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The 2025/26 USDA report shows that US soybean production and end - of - season inventory increase, and the supply - demand relationship turns looser. In South America, Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and Argentina's weather is expected to improve. The report is generally bearish [11] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of January 29, the weekly shipment volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season increases year - on - year, but the net sales volume decreases. Future purchases by China need to be monitored [15] - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Pressing**: Pressing profits are mostly negative. The actual pressing volume and operating rate increase slightly this week but are expected to decline in the near future. The import volume of soybeans shows seasonal changes, and the port inventory will gradually decline [27][29] - **Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increases this week. Transactions are active in January due to pre - festival stocking and concerns about future supply [36] - **Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The 05 - contract basis of soybean meal narrows slightly, and the 3 - 5 spread also narrows. Both are expected to oscillate in the short term [40][41] - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 5, 2026, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts is at a relatively high level in the same period of history [43] 3.2. Eggs 3.2.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Egg spot prices fall rapidly this week. Futures prices are also weak. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to the degree of inventory reduction, and it is recommended to go long at low levels for far - month contracts [48] 3.2.2. Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the same period of history, and the replenishment momentum slows down, which may reduce the medium - term inventory pressure [49] - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: Egg spot prices fall, feed costs remain stable, and breeding profits decline [56] - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume is stable with a slight decline, the culling age is slightly delayed, and the price is at a relatively low level in the same period of history [58] - **Demand, Inventory, and Hog Prices**: Egg sales are at a relatively high level in the same period of history, inventory is at a moderately high level, and hog prices are at a relatively low level in the same period of history [63] 3.3. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The raw sugar index fluctuates around 14 cents, and the Zhengzhou sugar index first falls and then rises, with technical resistance [68][69] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Shandong change little. The basis narrows, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthens [71][75] - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: In the second half of December 2025, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreases year - on - year, and the ethanol production increases [77] - **Import Profit and Exchange Rate**: The import processing profit of raw sugar increases slightly. The Brazilian real and Thai baht depreciate against the US dollar [83][85] 3.4. Cotton 3.4.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Overseas cotton markets are weak, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The USDA report is bullish, and domestic policies emphasize the stability of the cotton industry. The market is affected by macro - factors and is expected to oscillate narrowly before the festival [88][90] 3.4.2. Core Points - **Main Cotton - producing Countries**: The USDA January report shows that the global cotton supply - demand relationship improves slightly, with a decrease in ending inventory and a decline in the inventory - to - sales ratio [91] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of January 29, the net signing and shipment of US cotton in the 2025/2026 season show different trends, and the cumulative signing and shipment volumes are different from the same period last year [96] - **Textile Enterprises**: The inventory and load indexes of textile enterprises change slightly, with a general downward trend in load [98] - **Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The spot basis of cotton increases, and the 5 - 9 spread decreases [110] - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: Non - commercial net positions of cotton decrease, and the number of domestic registered warehouse receipts increases [113] 3.5. Corn 3.5.1. Market Review - Corn spot prices are narrowly weak. Futures prices decline slightly. Different regions have different price trends [116] 3.5.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress accelerates this week, and the port inventory increases [118][119] - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices first rise and then stabilize, with a price difference from corn [122] - **Imported Substitute Grains**: The import volume of grains in 2025 shows different changes. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the import volume may increase in the future [124][136] - **Feed Demand**: The total output of industrial feed in 2025 increases. The inventory of feed enterprises increases slightly, and the feed demand is expected to continue to grow slightly [138][141] - **Deep - processing Demand**: The operating rate and output of the starch industry decline, and the processing profit of starch enterprises is mostly negative. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increases [145][146] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 production of Chinese corn is expected to increase, and the consumption is also expected to rise. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [153] 3.5.3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply - demand relationship of corn is expected to be tight, with spot prices expected to be strong and futures prices expected to rebound after a decline. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish inventory on a rolling basis, and futures investors reduce long positions moderately and buy on dips [156][157] 3.6. Hogs 3.6.1. Market Review - Hog spot prices continue to fall, and futures prices oscillate slightly higher. The supply from large - scale farms increases, and the demand from slaughterhouses recovers slightly [159][160] 3.6.2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - term Supply**: The price of binary sows is stable. The inventory of breeding sows shows different trends according to different data sources, and the future supply of hogs is expected to change accordingly [163][164] - **Medium - term Supply**: The price of piglets is stable with a slight decline. The inventory of piglets shows different growth trends in different periods, which affects the future supply of hogs [175][176] - **Short - term Supply**: The inventory of large hogs decreases, and the proportion of large hogs in stock increases due to factors such as pre - festival demand and second - round fattening. The utilization rate of fattening pens decreases [178][179][180] - **Current Supply**: The actual and planned slaughter volumes of hogs in January and February change, and the average slaughter weight decreases [186][188] - **Import Supply**: The import volume of pork in 2025 decreases year - on - year [195] - **Second - round Fattening Demand**: The enthusiasm for second - round fattening weakens at the end of January, and the cost decreases [197] - **Slaughter Demand**: The operating rate of slaughterhouses increases, and the slaughter volume in 2025 increases significantly [201] 3.6.3. Future Outlook - Before the festival, the supply and demand of hogs both increase, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices are also expected to be weak. It is recommended that futures investors short on rallies, and breeding enterprises increase hedging and reduce short positions with slaughter [202][204]

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn futures market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The international market is affected by the loose supply - demand pattern of US corn, with potential import pressure. In the domestic market, the sales of Northeast corn are over 60%, and the market trading is gradually weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, while that in North China and Huanghuai regions is mainly fluctuating slightly. The corn starch futures market is also oscillating. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream提货 is active, and the industry inventory is declining [8][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Corn**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,274 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week. The international corn price is restricted by the loose supply - demand situation in the US. In the domestic market, Northeast farmers have sold over 60% of their corn, and market trading is weakening. The price of Northeast corn is slightly weak, and that in North China and Huanghuai regions is fluctuating slightly. The futures price has dropped from its short - term high [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,540 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival is approaching, logistics is about to stop, downstream is actively picking up goods, and the inventory is decreasing. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85%. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The March contract of corn futures oscillated up and down this week, with a total position of 504,926 hands, a decrease of 369,773 hands from last week. The March contract of corn starch futures oscillated slightly up, with a total position of 126,882 hands, a decrease of 30,699 hands from last week [16]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 120,101, compared with - 187,331 last week, and the net short position decreased. The top 20 net position of starch futures this week was - 28,786, compared with - 27,519 last week, and the net short position increased [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,440, and those of corn starch were 11,611 [29]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active March contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 94 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton. The basis between the March contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 160 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 5 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 54 yuan/ton, also at a relatively high level in the same period [43]. - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: The spread between the March contracts of starch and corn was 266 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 434 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [52]. - **Substitute Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2,531.67 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2,368.82 yuan/ton, with the wheat - corn spread at 162.85 yuan/ton. In the 6th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 575 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [57]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of January 30, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 582,000 tons, an increase of 241,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 122,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.732 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports in the week was 706,000 tons, the same as last week [47]. - **Domestic Corn Sales Progress**: As of February 5, the overall sales progress of domestic corn was 63%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The sales progress in Northeast China was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [59]. - **Monthly Import Arrivals**: In December 2025, China's total corn imports were 800,100 tons, an increase of 456,900 tons compared with 343,200 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 133.12%, and a month - on - month increase of 245,200 tons compared with 554,900 tons in the previous month [63]. - **Feed Enterprise Corn Inventory Days**: As of February 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, an increase of 0.66 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.89% [67]. - **Demand Side** - **Pig and Sows Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million from the end of last year, a growth of 0.5%. Among them, the sows inventory was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9% [71]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 25.1 yuan/head, and that of purchasing piglets was 124.13 yuan/head [75]. - **Starch and Alcohol Enterprise Profit**: As of February 5, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 71 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 659 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 754 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 194 yuan/ton [80]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of February 4, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 5.127 million tons, an increase of 16.39% [84]. - **Starch Enterprise Startup Rate and Inventory**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the total national corn processing volume was 614,100 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 316,200 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from last week; the weekly startup rate was 57.79%, a decrease of 2.2% from last week. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 995,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 3.21%, a month - on - month decline of 3.21%, and a year - on - year decline of 24.85% [88]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of February 6, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated up and down, and the corresponding implied volatility of options was 10.57%, a slight decrease of 0.22% from 10.79% last week. The implied volatility changed little this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 红枣市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 本周红枣期货价格走势 图1、郑枣主力合约价格走势 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周郑枣主力合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约2.85%。 行情展望：年前整体走货节奏尚可，临近年关备货收尾阶段。据 Mysteel 农产品 调研数据统计，截至2026年2月5日红枣本周36家样本点物理库存在11888吨， 较上周减少1255吨，环比减少9.55%，同比增加12.84%，样本点库存环比下降。 从多数样本客户的反馈及市场实际情况来看，年前整体走货情况与去年同期相 比差异不大。受春节假期影响，目前远途物流已基本停运，但省内物流仍可正 常发运。由于25产季的收购结构较为分散，且行业对年后新季行情普遍持谨慎 预期。长假临近，注意风险控制。 未来交易提示： 1、现货价格2、消费端 「 期现市场情况」 来源：郑商所 瑞达期货研究院 本周郑枣2605合约价格下跌 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 3 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2605合约价格微跌，周度跌幅约0.61%。 行情展望：巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西1月份出口棉花31.685万 吨，同比减少23.76%。1月份，巴西棉在前期出口顺畅、棉企抓紧履约的前提下报 价上涨，美棉报价持续偏低，巴西棉性价比明显减弱。加之东南亚大部分国家与美 国签署新一轮贸易协定，纷纷加大美棉进口力度，也给巴西棉出口带来阻力。国内 市场：当前国产棉、进口棉等供应充足，可流通量增加明显。外棉入库仍较多，港 口库存维持入多出少的状态。据Mysteel调研显示，截至2月5日，进口棉主要港口库 存周环比增加4.14%，总库存51.59万吨。下游纺企陆续停机放假，暂停对原料的采 购，纱线库存明显增加。考虑到当前长假临近，短期暂且观望为主。 未来交易提示： 1、关注外棉价格变化2、需求3、库 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Nanning Market Supervision Administration conducted a special food safety inspection for the New Year and Spring Festival, testing 558 batches of various food products, with 553 passing and 5 failing the safety standards [3][4]. Group 2 - The inspection covered 14 categories of food products, including grain processing products, edible oils, meat products, dairy products, confectionery, alcoholic beverages, pastries, beverages, frozen foods, catering foods, and edible agricultural products [3]. - The inspection followed a random sampling principle, and the results indicated a high compliance rate, with 99.1% of the samples passing the safety standards [3]. Group 3 - The Nanning Market Supervision Administration has taken action against the non-compliant samples, requiring local regulatory departments to handle the involved production and operation units, trace the batches and quantities of non-compliant products, and implement recall and risk control measures [4]. - Consumers are advised to purchase food from reliable sources, check packaging labels for compliance, and report any issues with non-compliant products to the market supervision department [4].