日本加息对全球市场有何影响？20251202 摘要 日本央行加息预期引发市场波动，与此前预期新首相上台后延续宽松政 策不同，当前预期基于日本最新数据和通胀指标，显示宽松政策难以为 继，导致市场调整并转向加息预期。 PMI 数据显示企业主动去库存，11 月外需回升但生产端偏弱，企业为避 免亏损缩减生产和采购，用现有库存满足需求。此举短期增加经济压力， 但中长期有助于重启库存周期，或在明年下半年改善供需关系并推动 PPI 回升。 2025 年 A 股流动性充裕，企业存款活化显著，活期存款占比提升。财 政发债增加企业现金流，反内卷和贸易战导致制造业投资下滑，资金流 入股市，风险偏好上升亦促使企业资金入市，预计该趋势在 2026 年上 半年持续。 当前债券市场表现不佳，但央行关注价格而非数量，下半年利率区间维 持在 1.3%-1.5%。降息可能要等到 2026 年，目前不宜看空债券市场， 关注中央经济工作会议是否带来超预期政策调整。 Q&A 日本央行加息预期对全球市场产生了哪些影响？ 日本央行加息预期对全球市场产生了显著影响。首先，日元套息交易的反转导 致投资者卖出高息资产，回流日元，这直接推动了全球债券市场利率上行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "15th Five-Year Plan" for Zhejiang Province, emphasizing high-quality development and the establishment of a common prosperity demonstration zone, aiming for significant progress by 2030 in economic strength, technological capability, and overall competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Technological Development - The plan aims for major breakthroughs in innovation, establishing a modern industrial system, and enhancing global competitiveness in sectors like advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence [2][3]. - By 2030, the per capita GDP of Zhejiang is expected to approach that of developed economies, with a focus on reducing urban-rural income disparities and improving residents' quality of life [1][2]. Group 2: Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - The plan includes the creation of an artificial intelligence innovation hub, promoting the integration of AI with various sectors, including manufacturing and social governance [3][4]. - It emphasizes the importance of a robust data infrastructure and the establishment of a new computing power system to support AI development [3]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Investment - The plan highlights the development of emerging industries such as AI, new materials, and biomedicine, with a focus on creating future industry pilot zones [4][6]. - It aims to improve investment quality and efficiency, particularly in high-tech and strategic emerging industries, while enhancing the participation of private enterprises in major projects [6][7]. Group 4: Consumer Market and Domestic Demand - The strategy focuses on expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumer capabilities through various initiatives, including the promotion of new consumption models and the development of service industries [5][6]. - It aims to create a favorable consumption environment and support cities like Hangzhou and Ningbo in becoming international consumption centers [5]. Group 5: Marine Economy - The plan includes initiatives to strengthen the marine economy, focusing on modern marine industry systems and the sustainable development of marine resources [7]. - It aims to enhance marine ecological protection while participating in global marine governance [7].

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose slightly in November, reinforcing market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not cut interest rates again in the short term [1][4] - The harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone increased from 2.1% in the previous month to 2.2% year-on-year in November, remaining close to the ECB's target of 2% [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained stable at 2.4%, driven by rapid growth in service prices, while durable goods prices grew at a more moderate pace [4][5] Group 2 - Price pressures within the Eurozone, particularly in the service sector, continue to support inflation, with service inflation at 3.5% and unprocessed food prices up by 3.3% in November [5] - Energy prices have decreased significantly, with natural gas prices down over 40% year-on-year and crude oil prices down more than 10%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the energy sector [5] - The ECB has maintained a wait-and-see approach after cutting rates by 2 percentage points over the past year, with officials indicating they can tolerate slight deviations from the inflation target as long as underlying trends align with it [6][7] Group 3 - Market pricing reflects the expectation that the ECB is unlikely to adjust its 2% deposit rate at the upcoming meeting on December 18 [7] - Economic indicators suggest a robust expansion close to potential growth rates of about 1% to 1.5%, supported by a relatively tight labor market [7] - The Eurozone unemployment rate slightly increased to 6.4% in October, indicating ongoing labor market dynamics [7]

精准激励，激活领军人才。落实和完善科研经费包干制，赋予领军人才更大的技术路线决定权、经费支 配权和资源调度权。在高校和科研院所推行首席科学家负责制，保障其对研究方向的主导权。鼓励事业 单位对作出突出贡献的领军人才和拔尖人才实行年薪制、协议工资制和项目工资制。支持高校、科研院 所的科研人员带着成果在职或离岗创业，探索赋予科研人员职务科技成果所有权或长期使用权。 以改革融通区域协同优势，释放聚合发展潜能 全会强调"构建优势互补、高质量发展的区域经济布局和国土空间体系"。江苏地处长三角，是多个国家 重大战略的叠加地，要系统性谋划，完善省域内良性竞争合作机制，发挥经济大省辐射带动力，实现全 球、全国及全省范围内的多向融通、发展共赢。 □ 丁荣余 党的二十届四中全会明确提出，"十五五"时期经济社会发展要"以改革创新为根本动力"。江苏要持续走 在高质量发展前列，就必须牢牢把握改革这一关键抓手，把"融通"作为深化改革、释放动能的核心环 节，着力破除体制机制壁垒，疏通政策执行堵点，贯通人才、技术、资本、数据等关键要素的流动脉 络，将分散力量凝聚成合力，将单点突破扩展为整体优势，将潜在优势转化为新质生产力，从而构筑起 江苏高质 ...

2025 年 12 月 02 日 固定收益研究团队 制造业景气水平小幅回升，市场预期仍保持乐观 ——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月采购经理指数运行情况，制造业 PMI为 49.2% （前值为 49.0%，下同），环比提升 0.2pct；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%（50.1%）， 环比下降 0.6pct；综合 PMI 为 49.7%（50.0%），环比下降 0.3pct。 11 月 PMI 数据关注点 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%（49.0%），环比提升 0.2pct，同比下降 1.1pct，制造业 景气水平小幅回升，生产活动较 10 月有所修复。 出口改善拉动生产修复，制造业景气水平小幅回升，但仍处收缩区间。制造业 整体景气度在国际局势缓和及政策支持下逐步企稳回升，但整体回升幅度不大， 且已连续 8 个月位于收缩区间。中美达成缓和协议后，11 月 ...

网上又都是黄金5500，白银80，美元再跌10%之类的话题了，大家又要很兴奋的高喊要做多金银铜了，美国高盛的大卫所罗门、桥水的达利 欧、还有约翰·保尔森这几个老多头联合起来，通过这轮拔网线行动，打了一次现货供需差，赚了一大票，这种走势不洗，后面就要给散户和现 货商去送钱了！而这个市场，很多人都把现货和商品混为一谈，殊不知，一旦消费端通缩，上游的供需的关系立马就失去了核心预计，人类重 回金银本位就意味着下一代的持续通缩，对于大佬是好事，对于普通人而言，别谈自己的金银储备，因为这个市场，其实并不对普通人开放。 因此，我还是这个观点，美元会降息，但按当下的几个市场上的炒作热情和流动性冻结幅度，美元后面依然会紧张（证券化市场和银行市 场）！传统意义上，降息通常对于传统金融而言意味着货币宽松，但按美债这个规模，如果也要走日本模式，同时，我们也跟进的话，估计会 让全球掀起负利率竞赛或者加息大赛，引发金融巨震，因此，2026年对于世界金融的看法请改下观念，很多事情要从流动性和债务的角度去 看！ 而影响市场情绪的另一重要依据就是美国的制造业经济和就业的复苏！ 2025年11月美国ISM制造业PMI指数降至48.2，较上月下降 ...

晨会纪要（2025/12/02） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.02） 宏观及策略研究 外贸环境趋稳，制造业景气度回升——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/12/02） 宏观及策略研究 外贸环境趋稳，制造业景气度回升——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、事件： 2025 年 11 月 30 日，统计局公布了 PMI 数据，11 月制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指数分别为 49.2%、49.5%和 49.7%。 2、点评： （1）制造业景气水平有所回升，产需两端纷纷改善。具体而言，11 月生产节奏有所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of 50 cities for the new consumption pilot program aims to address the insufficient supply of high-quality consumption and stimulate innovation in the consumption sector through targeted fiscal support policies, shifting from direct subsidies to optimizing the consumption supply structure [1][3][6] Group 1: Pilot Program Overview - The pilot program includes 50 cities, comprising 4 municipalities, 5 sub-provincial cities, and 41 other cities, focusing on creating new consumption scenarios [4] - The program emphasizes three main support directions: launching new products, diverse service consumption scenarios, and cross-industry collaborations [3][4] Group 2: Fiscal Support and Strategy - The central government will provide substantial financial support, with super-large cities receiving a total subsidy of 400 million yuan, large cities 300 million yuan, and other cities 200 million yuan over two years, totaling approximately 17 billion yuan [6][4] - This initiative represents a strategic shift in fiscal policy, focusing on enhancing the "soft environment" for consumption rather than merely providing direct financial incentives to consumers [7][10] Group 3: Consumption Upgrade and Economic Impact - The pilot program is designed to enrich high-quality service supply and leverage consumption's ripple effect, promoting related industries such as culture, tourism, and transportation [3][4] - The initiative aims to create a sustainable consumption ecosystem that enhances urban competitiveness and fosters high-growth sectors like experience economy and cultural creativity [10][11] Group 4: Challenges and Recommendations - The implementation of the pilot program may face challenges such as avoiding homogenization, attracting social capital, and transitioning from reliance on fiscal subsidies to self-sustaining models [12][13] - Recommendations include investing in consumption infrastructure, optimizing public services, and creating a favorable institutional environment to support new consumption forms [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI showed a marginal improvement with synchronized recovery in production and demand and accelerated destocking, but the asymmetric recovery of raw material and finished product prices may still restrict corporate profit repair, and the sustainability of external demand contribution remains to be verified. The decline in service - sector sentiment indicates that the resilience of domestic demand also needs to be observed. The bond market has adjusted, and the impact of PMI data is expected to be limited. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds with a taxable coupon yield above 1.8% when there are adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing PMI - **Overall situation**: In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 pct from the previous month, still seasonally weak but with marginal improvement. Production, procurement, and import indices on the supply - side increased, and new order and backlog order indices on the demand - side rose. Inventory destocking accelerated, and some predictive indicators showed improved supply - demand relationships [5][9]. - **External demand contribution**: The new export order index rose 1.7 pct to 47.6%, and the new export order indices of four major manufacturing industries and large, medium, and small enterprises all increased. However, the asymmetric recovery of raw material and finished product prices may pressure corporate profit repair [9]. - **Enterprise size and industry differences**: Small and medium - sized enterprises' sentiment improved, especially small enterprises which rose 2 pct to a nearly 6 - month high of 49.1%, while large enterprises' sentiment declined 0.6 pct to 49.3%. High - tech manufacturing with a high proportion of small and medium - sized enterprises remained in expansion, while the sentiment of equipment and consumer goods manufacturing declined, and their production sides may be stronger than the demand sides [9]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall situation**: The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% in November 2025, down 0.6 pct from the previous month, the first time below the boom - bust line since 2023. The service - sector sentiment was dragged down by factors such as the fading holiday effect, while the construction industry's sentiment improved [5][9]. - **Sub - item structure**: The inventory and new order indices of non - manufacturing declined, while the new export order index rose. The sales price and input price indices increased for two consecutive months. In the service sector, the financial industry and some new - energy industries showed good performance. The construction industry's business activity index increased, possibly boosted by financial activities and policy support [9]. Investment Suggestion The bond market has adjusted, and the impact of PMI data is expected to be limited. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds with a taxable coupon yield above 1.8% when there are adjustments [2][9].

欧盟委员会近日发布2025年秋季经济展望报告预测，2025年欧盟实际国内生产总值（GDP）将增长 1.4%，欧元区增长1.3%；2026年欧盟经济将增长1.4%，欧元区经济增长1.2%。另据最新数据，经季节 调整后，今年第三季度欧盟GDP环比增长0.3%，同比增长1.5%；欧元区环比增长0.2%，同比增长 1.3%。欧盟委员会报告认为，尽管外部环境严峻，但未来欧盟经济预计将以温和速度继续扩张。 欧盟委员会负责经济事务的委员东布罗夫斯基斯表示，鉴于外部形势严峻，欧盟必须采取果断行动，释 放内部增长潜力。这意味着要加快推进竞争力议程，简化监管、完善单一市场以及促进创新。 各经济体表现分化明显 近年来，欧盟经济整体增速偏低，阶段性停滞时有出现。今年以来，欧盟国家前三季度经济呈现微弱复 苏态势，经济整体表现略高于预期。最新数据表明，经季节调整后，欧元区和欧盟第三季度经济环比增 速较上一季度的0.1%和0.2%有所加快。其中，欧元区20个经济体中，9个国家实现环比正增长，3个国 家负增长；14个国家实现同比正增长，1个国家负增长。 欧盟各经济体的表现分化明显。环比增速中，瑞典以1.1%的增速领跑，葡萄牙与捷克分别以0. ...