Group 1: Global Gas Turbine and Aerospace Engine Demand - The demand for gas turbines is expected to surge, with GE Vernova projecting a backlog of 60GW by the end of 2025, with orders signed until 2028 [3][4] - In Q1 2025, GE Vernova added 7.1GW in new gas turbine orders, a 44.9% year-on-year increase, primarily from heavy-duty gas turbine orders [3][4] - The aerospace engine market is experiencing robust demand, with Boeing reporting a net addition of 300 aircraft orders in May 2025, raising its backlog to 5943 aircraft [5][6] Group 2: High-Temperature Alloy and Chromium Salt Industry - The growth in gas turbine and aerospace engine demand is driving the need for high-temperature alloys, with domestic manufacturers poised to benefit from supply chain constraints [9][13] - Companies like Zhenhua Co. and Sry New Materials are expanding their production capabilities and reporting significant revenue growth from overseas markets [9][10] - The high-temperature alloy sector is rated as "recommended" due to the increasing demand for core components amid supply chain shifts towards China [13] Group 3: Coal Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, China's industrial raw coal production reached 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, indicating a recovery in the coal supply [15][18] - The industrial electricity generation in May 2025 showed a positive shift, with coal-fired power generation increasing by 1.2% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline [19][22] - The coal market is witnessing a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with coal prices stabilizing and inventory levels decreasing [21][23] Group 4: Real Estate and Land Market Factors - The land market's performance is influenced by five key factors, including financing environment, new housing market stability, inventory reduction, sales model changes, and land supply rules [24][27] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant recovery in the real estate market, with new housing transactions positively impacting land market activity [29][30] - The land market is entering a "dual concentration" phase, with significant activity concentrated in major cities and among top real estate firms [25][26] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - Xiaogoods City (600415.SH) is leveraging its position in Yiwu to enhance its global trade capabilities, with a projected revenue growth of 25% from 2025 to 2027 [36][39] - Huayi Group is diversifying its operations across five core business areas, reporting a revenue increase of 9.3% in 2024 [40]

Market Overview - On June 18, the A-share market experienced a slight rebound after a day of bottom testing, with the three major indices showing minor increases. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.23% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.19 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The market showed a mixed performance with over 3,400 stocks declining. Notable sectors included strength in computing hardware stocks, with companies like Huadian Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - AI glasses concept stocks remained active, with Bi Yi Co. also reaching the daily limit. Conversely, rare earth permanent magnet stocks experienced a downturn, with Zhongke Magnetic Materials dropping over 10% [1] International Market - In the U.S. stock market on June 18, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 44.14 points (0.10%) to close at 42,171.66 points, while the S&P 500 decreased by 1.85 points (0.03%) to 5,980.87 points. The Nasdaq Composite, however, rose by 25.18 points (0.13%) to 19,546.27 points [3][4] - European markets showed mixed results, with the FTSE 100 up by 9.44 points (0.11%) while the CAC 40 and DAX indices fell by 27.61 points (0.36%) and 116.84 points (0.50%) respectively [3][4] - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures rising by $0.30 (0.4%) to $75.14 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures up by $0.25 (0.33%) to $76.70 per barrel [3][4] Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released opinions on establishing a growth layer in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to enhance institutional inclusivity and adaptability, allowing unprofitable companies to list under the fifth set of standards [5][6] - The Central Financial Committee issued opinions to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, aiming for significant improvements in financial system adaptability and competitiveness over the next five to ten years [7] - The CSRC announced that qualified foreign investors will be allowed to participate in ETF options trading starting October 9, 2025, as part of efforts to optimize the foreign investor system [8] Industry Insights - According to Guohai Securities, the coal mining industry continues to face supply constraints, with demand expected to fluctuate. Leading coal companies exhibit strong asset quality and cash flow, characterized by high profitability and dividends [12] - Guolian Minsheng Securities anticipates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, with life insurance new business value expected to improve and property insurance profitability gradually increasing [12] - CITIC Securities noted that the recent bidding for wind turbine procurement by State Power Investment Corporation indicates a rising trend in domestic wind turbine prices, suggesting a potential for sustained performance in the wind energy sector [12] Automotive Market - Data from the China Passenger Car Association indicated that retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 402,000 units in the first half of June, marking a 38% year-on-year increase. The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles stood at 57% [11]

Core Insights - The current ten-year government bonds have high investment value, optimizing risk-return performance in portfolios and showing low correlation with other assets like stocks and gold [2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for ten-year bonds, with a loose monetary policy and weak credit demand, leading to better performance compared to other assets during this phase [2][3] Ten-Year Government Bond Historical Analysis - The long-term trend indicates a downward shift in interest rates, primarily driven by declining real returns, with expectations of lower financing costs due to weakening prices [3] - Financial institutions are experiencing a downward trend in earnings, with deposit and investment product yields decreasing further from the beginning of the year [3] - Supply-demand dynamics and central bank liquidity support are expected to drive interest rates lower, with a potential asset shortage emerging as bond supply slows [3] Ten-Year Government Bond Advantages - Interest rates are anticipated to reach new lows, with expectations of the ten-year bond yield dropping to 1.4%-1.5% within the year [4] - The ten-year bond serves as a crucial benchmark rate, balancing long and short-term funding needs and is a key reference for pricing other financial products [4] - The 国泰上证 10-year government bond ETF is the only ETF tracking the ten-year bond index, utilizing an optimized sampling method to enhance liquidity and reduce trading costs [4][5] ETF Characteristics - The 国债 ETF operates on a T+0 trading mechanism, allowing for same-day buying and selling, which facilitates multiple trading opportunities within a single day [5] - The ETF maintains transparency in holdings, with daily disclosures, making it suitable for conservative long-term investors [5] - The ETF has low fees, high liquidity, and a strong historical performance, managed by experienced fund managers [5] Industry Performance Overview - The steel industry saw a 6.9% year-on-year decline in crude steel production in May, indicating a need for further observation regarding production strength [14] - The coal industry experienced a continued decline in imports, with a slight increase in thermal power generation, suggesting a potential rebound in demand [15]

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 108 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 6 月 17 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 朱毅 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 王文瑞 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 王逸奇 孙菲 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 整理记录：李正威 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 1、中药行业（许雯） 核心要点： 市场表现：上周中药Ⅱ下跌0.32%，医药板块涨跌互现，中药表现相对较弱 根据wind数据，上周（2025.06.08-2025.06.14）医药生物报收7895.79点，上涨1.4%；中 药Ⅱ报收6410.24点，下跌0.32%；化学制药报收12686.19点，上涨3.53%；生物制品报收6212.51 点，上涨0.33%；医药商业报收5099.4点，下跌0.83%；医疗器械报收6147.18点，下跌0.52%； 医疗服务报收5403.37点，上涨2.42%。医药二级子板块涨跌互现，化学制药表现最好，中药 表现相对较弱。 根据wind数据，上周中药 ...

Major Events - Xinhua Investment Control acquired 51% stake in a listed company through a state-owned equity transfer, with the controlling shareholder changing from Xinhua News Agency to Xinhua Investment Control, while the actual controller remains unchanged [3] - *ST Jiuyou received a decision for stock delisting, with the delisting period starting on June 24, 2025, and the last trading day expected to be July 14, 2025 [4][5] - Yunlu Co.'s chairman and general manager was detained by the local supervisory committee, but the company stated that this matter is unrelated to its operations, which continue normally [6] - Weir Co. announced a name change to Haowei Group effective June 20, 2025, while the stock code remains the same [7] - Dafu Technology plans to transfer 27% of its subsidiary Peitian Intelligent Manufacturing to Dayu Industrial Investment Group for approximately 192.21 million yuan, maintaining control over the subsidiary [8] Performance Updates - HNA Holding reported a 15.01% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity in May 2025, with international passenger transport up 62.37% [13] - China Eastern Airlines saw a 15.43% increase in passenger turnover in May 2025, with a fleet of 814 aircraft by the end of May [14] - China Coal Energy reported a 4.9% decrease in coal sales in May 2025, despite a 1.9% increase in production [15] - Shenzhen Airport recorded a 15.67% year-on-year increase in passenger throughput in May 2025 [16] Shareholding Changes - Baodi Mining's three shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 4.05% of the company's shares between July 9 and October 8, 2025 [17] - Top Group's actual controller and vice chairman plan to reduce their holdings by a combined total of up to 3.5 million shares [19] - Haoyue Nursing's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1.07 million shares during the same period [20] Share Buybacks - Midea Group plans to repurchase shares worth between 5 billion and 10 billion yuan, with a maximum price of 100 yuan per share, primarily for capital reduction and employee incentive plans [21] Financing Activities - Wuzhou Xinchun intends to raise up to 1 billion yuan through a private placement for the development of intelligent robots and automotive core components [22] Major Contracts - Baijia Qiancheng signed a licensing agreement with Mango Film and Television for a total contract value of 372 million yuan, representing 50.65% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [24] - China Energy Construction won a bid for the Jiangyin Sulong project with a contract value of approximately 5 billion yuan [25] - Zhongtian Technology secured multiple communication and power projects with a total bid amount of 3.617 billion yuan [26]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report identifies resilient export products under tariff impacts, highlighting that products with technical barriers and differentiation show stronger pricing power in the long term, leading to a virtuous cycle of "volume and price increase + increased dependency" [2] - In the short term, a general decline in exports is observed, with more resilience reflected through re-export trade, and high-dependency products showing weak overseas substitution effects [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to be minimally affected by the recent Middle East tensions, as historical data shows limited impact during such events [3] - The report notes that the share of the Middle East in China's import and export trade is low, indicating a weak direct impact on the domestic economy [3] Group 3: Financial Sector Analysis - The report discusses the weak demand affecting credit expansion, with May's financial data showing a year-on-year decrease in credit growth, although government bond issuance supports social financing growth at a stable rate of 8.7% [8] - M1 growth rebounded due to a low base, while M2 growth remains stable [8] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Strong AI demand and rising storage prices are expected to boost the semiconductor sector, particularly benefiting companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor due to domestic substitution trends [9] - The report recommends focusing on companies with robust performance in non-volatile storage and FPGA sectors [9] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The report indicates that the transaction area of new homes in 30 core cities remained stable year-on-year, with average prices increasing by 5.6% [10] - Key cities like Beijing and Shanghai show significant price increases, suggesting a stabilization in high-tier cities [10] Group 6: Agricultural Sector - The report highlights a potential recovery in pig prices as inventory levels decrease, with policies driving the industry towards destocking [12] - Long-term profitability is anticipated post-destocking, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Zhengbang Technology [12] Group 7: Energy Sector - The report notes that seasonal demand for electricity is expected to support stable coal prices, with recommendations for companies with high long-term contracts like China Shenhua [13] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are also discussed, with rising oil prices observed [14] Group 8: Non-Banking Financial Services - The report emphasizes the growth potential of Yika, a leading commercial empowerment technology platform, predicting net profits of 101 million, 112 million, and 123 million yuan for 2025-2027 [15] - The company is expected to benefit from a competitive landscape in the payment sector [15] Group 9: Telecommunications Sector - The report projects significant growth for Shengyi Technology, driven by AI-related demand, with net profit forecasts of 2.628 billion and 3.280 billion yuan for 2025-2026 [16] - The long-term growth potential of the company is highlighted [16] Group 10: Retail Sector - The report indicates a significant improvement in operating profit margins for Chow Tai Fook, with a forecasted recovery in net profit for FY2026 and FY2027 [17] - The company's transformation strategy is showing positive results, with expectations of increased consumer demand for gold jewelry [17]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 （1）本周110家样本洗煤厂（约占全国洗煤厂焦原煤入洗产能50%）开工率为57.4%，环比-3.2pct，同 比-11.6pct，当前仍处于5年同期低位水平；（2）本周247座高炉产能利用率为90.58%，环比-0.07pct，同 比+1.05pct，日均铁水产量241.54 万吨，环比-0.1%，同比+0.9%；（3）本周28个主要城市平均气温为 29.45 ℃，处于同期中位；（4）本周三峡出库流量为16414 立方米/秒，环比+29.39%，同比+39.95%。 环渤海港煤炭库存继续回落，目前处于同期高位 （1）截至6月13日，秦皇岛港口煤炭库存618 万吨，环比-5.65%，同比+19.31%，处于同期高位水平； （2）截至6月1 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【策略】中东局势动荡对资产价格有何影响？——策略周专题（2025年6月第2期） 以色列对伊朗发动打击事件对于A股以及港股整体而言影响或许也不会很大。一方面，历史来看，中东局势紧 张时A股及港股所受影响均较小。另一方面，中东地区在我国的进出口份额中占比也较低，冲突本身对于国内 经济的影响较弱。行业层面，短期或可"以静制动"，继续关注原有主线，中长期则需观察冲突的持续性。若冲 突持续时间短，可更多关注成长，反之则关注资源品、交运及红利板块等。 （张宇生/王国兴） 2025-06-15 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查 看 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【石油化工】坚守长期主义之十：地缘政治风险再起，"三桶油"及油服战略价值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to benefit from rising international oil prices and a gradual reduction in inventory levels [3]. - The demand for thermal coal is anticipated to remain stable despite being in a traditional off-peak season, supported by supply constraints and reduced imports [3]. - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as the peak season approaches, driven by improved steel production and profitability [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - June marks the annual "Safety Production Month" in China, emphasizing safety and emergency preparedness [9]. - Coal transportation from Xinjiang has increased, with a total of 39.4 million tons shipped out, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [9]. Price Trends for Thermal and Coking Coal - As of June 13, thermal coal prices remained stable, with various grades reporting little to no change [10][11]. - Coking coal prices have shown slight declines, but the report suggests a potential for stabilization as demand from steel mills increases [13]. International Oil Price Surge - Brent crude oil prices rose significantly, with a reported increase of $7.76 per barrel, marking an 11.67% rise [17]. - The relationship between international oil prices and coal prices has shown a downward trend, indicating a potential impact on coal pricing dynamics [17]. Port Inventory and Shipping Costs - Inventory levels at the Bohai Rim ports have decreased, with coal stock down to 28.688 million tons, a reduction of 63.10% week-on-week [22]. - Domestic shipping costs have declined, with average coastal shipping rates falling by 2.96% [29]. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [34]. - Companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal are recommended for their stable operations and high dividend yields [3].

2025 年 6 月 15 日 行业研究 原油价格拉涨，关注海外扰动对能源价格的影响 ——煤炭开采行业周报（2025.6.9~2025.6.15） 要点 原油价格拉涨，关注海外扰动对能源价格的影响。（1）6 月 13 日凌晨，以色 列对伊朗进行打击，伊朗在 13 日夜间发起报复行动，使用无人机及导弹对以 色列进行了多波大规模回击；（2）受此影响，6 月 13 日布伦特原油期货结算价 当日上涨 7.02%，本周全周累计上涨 11.67%；（3）历史来看，煤炭、原油、 天然气价格具有一定的关联性，原油价格的上涨有望提振海外煤炭市场的看涨 情绪，后续需持续关注海外扰动对煤价的影响。 本周港口煤价小幅下跌，海外油价反弹。（1）本周（6.9-6.13）秦皇岛港口动 力煤平仓价（5500 大卡周度平均值）为 609 元/吨，环比-0.25 元/吨 （-0.04%）；（2）陕西榆林动力混煤坑口价格（5800 大卡）周度平均值为 470 元/吨，环比-5 元/吨（-1.05%）；（3）澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤 FOB 价格 （5500 大卡周度平均值）为 66 美元/吨，环比-0.99%；（4）欧洲天然气期货 结算价（DUT ...