黑色板块研发报告 铁合金半年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 成本宽松拖累，合金继续磨底 第一部分 前言概要 第 1 页 共 11 页 黑色板块研发报告 铁合金半年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 银河期货 第二部分 基本面情况 图 1：铁合金主力合约走势回顾（元/吨） 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 硅铁主力 硅锰主力 图 3：72%FeSi 硅铁现货市场价（元/吨） 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 内蒙 宁夏 青海 陕西72 图 4：72%FeSi 内蒙硅铁现货市场价（元/吨） 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 第 2 页 共 11 页 图 2：盘面主力合约 sf-sm 价差（元/吨） -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021 2022 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint No clear core viewpoint presented in the given content, which mainly consists of price, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For ferrosilicon on June 27, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5130 yuan, with a daily change of 30 yuan and a weekly change of 30 yuan; the export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020 US dollars, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 35 US dollars [2]. - For silicomanganese on June 27, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 at the production area was 5520 yuan, with a daily change of 20 yuan and a weekly change of 40 yuan [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production, and capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia [4]. - The production data of silicomanganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as weekly production and enterprise start - up rate [6]. Demand - Ferrosilicon demand - related data include export prices at Tianjin Port, export quantity in China, and procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - Silicomanganese demand - related data involve the estimated demand in China and export quantity from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon inventory data include the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, inventory in Ningxia, and warehouse receipt data from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - Silicomanganese inventory data cover warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost Profit - Ferrosilicon cost - profit data include electricity prices in different regions, Lanthanum carbon prices, production costs in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and corresponding profits from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - Silicomanganese cost - profit data involve the profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions from 2021 - 2025 [7].

Core Insights - The iron alloy industry has made significant progress in eliminating backward production capacity since 2021, but lacks key measures for substantial carbon reduction [1] - Carbon pricing mechanisms, including carbon taxes and carbon trading, are essential for controlling carbon emissions, with each having distinct advantages and limitations [2][3] Carbon Pricing Mechanisms - Carbon taxes provide stable revenue expectations for companies, promoting low-carbon technology innovation, but may not effectively control total carbon emissions [2][3] - Carbon trading offers a superior total control mechanism, with predetermined emission limits that prevent significant breaches even during economic booms [3] - The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the largest carbon trading market globally, demonstrating effective emission control alongside economic growth [3] Industry Challenges and Responses - The iron alloy industry faces high energy consumption pressures, with significant electricity usage per ton of products like silicon iron and manganese silicon [7] - The Chinese government has set ambitious energy efficiency targets for the iron alloy industry, requiring a substantial proportion of production to meet benchmark levels by 2025 [7] - The establishment of a green product certification standard is crucial for guiding the industry's transition to low-carbon development [7][8] Green Product Certification - The newly released green product certification standard for iron alloys focuses on the entire product lifecycle, addressing energy consumption, resource utilization, and carbon emissions [8] - If the entire industry achieves certification, it is estimated that energy consumption per product could decrease by approximately 15%, saving around 25 billion kWh annually [9] Futures Market Initiatives - The "Green Assistance" pilot project aims to leverage futures tools to support the green transition of iron alloy production, providing financial incentives for certified green product producers [10][12] - The integration of green certification with futures trading is expected to enhance market competitiveness and promote a virtuous cycle of green transformation [12][13] Pathways for Industry Transformation - The iron alloy industry must enhance low-carbon technology research and data monitoring capabilities to address existing shortcomings [14] - A composite mechanism combining carbon taxes and carbon trading could better meet the industry's complex needs, alongside coordinated green finance policies [15] - Industry leaders should take on a proactive role in driving green development, with associations refining standards and fostering a supportive ecosystem [16][17] Conclusion - The iron alloy industry is undergoing a fundamental shift towards green and low-carbon practices, supported by new certification standards and innovative financial tools [18] - Continued collaboration among government, market, and enterprises is essential for achieving energy savings and industrial upgrades, positioning the industry favorably in the global low-carbon competition [18]

Group 1: Market Overview - The high carbon ferrochrome market is currently stable with cautious optimism, despite the lack of substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics [1][2] - Market sentiment has improved slightly, but a cautious mindset persists due to expectations of a low season affecting high carbon ferrochrome supply [2] - Current external quotations for high carbon ferrochrome are concentrated around 7700-7850 CNY per 50 base tons [2] Group 2: Market Transactions - Zhongtian Changzhou plans to procure 1100 tons of high carbon ferrochrome and 100 tons of medium carbon ferrochrome, with bidding starting on June 27 [2] - Central South Co. plans to tender for 450 tons of high carbon ferrochrome, with the bidding deadline set for June 30 [2] - The alloy price index for high carbon ferrochrome shows regional variations, with prices reported as follows: Hebei 7965 CNY, Shandong 8053 CNY (down 10), Liaoning 8193 CNY, Jiangsu 8249 CNY (down 30), Sichuan 8126 CNY (up 10), Hunan 8150 CNY (down 30) [2] Group 3: Chrome Ore Market - The latest transaction price for South African chrome concentrate (40-42%) at Tianjin Port is 265 USD per ton, unchanged from the previous round [4] - The chrome ore market is experiencing price adjustments, with various grades listed, such as South African lump ore (36%-38%) priced at 220-230 USD per ton and South African concentrate (42%-44%) at 280-290 USD per ton [5] - The overall market sentiment indicates a potential increase in the likelihood of short-term consolidation in the ferrochrome market due to the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 26, the silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5384, up 0.98%. The spot price of silicon iron in Ningxia was reported at 5240. The production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the cost support is weakened by the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia, the overall expectation of steel demand is still weak, and the market should pay attention to the market sentiment disturbance under the change of tariff policies. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as oscillating [2]. - On June 26, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5676, up 0.96%. The spot price of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5500. Although the manufacturers' production cuts have led the operating rate to a low level in the same period, the overall inventory is still high. The downstream hot - metal production has peaked and declined, and the raw - material coal has stopped falling and stabilized. The steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to decline. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as oscillating [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Manganese - Silicon (SM)**: The closing price of the SM main contract was 5676 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the contract position was 588,389 hands, down 3429 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 35,666 hands, down 1939 hands; the spread between the 1 - 9 month contracts was 34 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 93,468, down 301 [2]. - **Silicon - Iron (SF)**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5384 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the contract position was 421,144 hands, down 12,473 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 56,135 hands, down 6086 hands; the spread between the 1 - 9 month contracts was - 30 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 6415, up 6415 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Manganese - Silicon**: The prices of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Yunnan were 5500, 5500, and 5450 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5465 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan. The basis of the SM main contract was - 176 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The prices of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia were 5300, 5140, and 5240 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the SF main contract was - 144 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Manganese - Silicon**: The price of South African Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, up 4 yuan. The port inventory of manganese ore was 421.50 tons, down 18.60 tons. The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 850 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of semi - coke (medium - sized, Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Manganese - Silicon**: The operating rate of manganese - silicon enterprises was 36.39%, up 1.09%. The supply was 176,610 tons, up 3220 tons. The manufacturers' inventory was 195,900 tons, up 9300 tons. The national steel - mill inventory was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days. The demand of the five major steel types was 123,717 tons, up 1564 tons [2]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The operating rate of silicon - iron enterprises was 32.69%, up 1.34%. The supply was 97,900 tons, up 2800 tons. The manufacturers' inventory was 69,900 tons, up 2200 tons. The national steel - mill inventory was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days. The demand of the five major steel types was 19,964.40 tons, up 356.60 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, up 0.45%. The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, up 0.25%. The monthly crude - steel output was 86.545 million tons, up 526,000 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In May, despite the significant increase in the sales of pure - electric vehicles in Europe, Tesla's new - car sales in the region decreased by nearly 28% year - on - year [2]. - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants in the country was 59.10%, down 2.23% from the previous period; the daily average output was 501,500 tons, down 84,000 tons; the raw - coal inventory was 3.2128 million tons, down 50,800 tons; the clean - coal inventory was 2.3187 million tons, down 55,200 tons [2]. - The chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said that the Iranian government has taken necessary measures to ensure the continuation of the nuclear project after being attacked by Israel and the United States [2]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, and accelerate the construction of a new model for real - estate development [2]. - In May, the crude - steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 159 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [2]. 3.7 Profit Situation - **Manganese - Silicon**: The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 140 yuan/ton; the spot profit in Ningxia was - 280 yuan/ton [2]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 360 yuan/ton; the spot profit in Ningxia was - 320 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - No clear core viewpoint is presented in the provided content. It mainly contains price, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit data of ferroalloys such as ferrosilicon and ferromanganese. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price - For ferrosilicon on June 26, 2025, the spot price of Ningxia 72 was 5100 yuan, unchanged daily and up 50 yuan weekly; the main contract price was 5374 yuan, up 86 yuan daily and 84 yuan weekly. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020 US dollars, unchanged daily and down 35 US dollars weekly [2]. - For ferromanganese on June 26, 2025, the ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5500 yuan, unchanged daily and up 20 yuan weekly; the main contract price was 5654 yuan, up 98 yuan daily and 98 yuan weekly [2]. Supply - Data on the production volume, capacity utilization rate, and start - up rate of 136 ferrosilicon production enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including monthly production volume, weekly production volume (with a capacity share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - Data on the production volume and start - up rate of ferromanganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, such as weekly production volume and the start - up rate of ferromanganese enterprises [6]. Demand - Data on the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including the estimated production volume of crude steel in China, the demand for ferromanganese in China (according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the procurement volume and price of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7]. Inventory - Data on the inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including weekly inventory in China and in regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5]. - Data on the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in China, the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [7]. Cost - Profit - Data on the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including electricity prices in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of semi - coke, the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, and the profit of ferromanganese in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions [5][7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View The report focuses on the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon markets, stating that the market is subject to macro - emotional disturbances and shows wide - range fluctuations. The trend intensities of both ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon are rated as 1, indicating a neutral view [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Ferrosilicon 2508 closed at 5408, with a change of 82 compared to the previous trading day, and a trading volume of 21,115 and an open interest of 32,649. Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5374, up 86, with a trading volume of 178,400 and an open interest of 226,267. - Manganese - silicon 2508 closed at 5652, up 102, with a trading volume of 28,610 and an open interest of 24,163. Manganese - silicon 2509 closed at 5654, up 98, with a trading volume of 327,757 and an open interest of 401,426 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5100 yuan/ton; the price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 37.5 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 compared to the previous trading day; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 580 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Differences**: - The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) was - 308 yuan/ton, down 82; the basis of manganese - silicon (spot - 09 futures) was - 154 yuan/ton, down 98. - The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 was 34 yuan/ton, down 4; the near - far month spread of manganese - silicon 2508 - 2509 was - 8 yuan/ton, up 4. - The cross - variety spread of manganese - silicon 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 was 244 yuan/ton, up 20; the cross - variety spread of manganese - silicon 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 was 280 yuan/ton, up 12 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Spot Price Information**: On June 25, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5000 - 5100 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton (with an increase of 50 yuan/ton in Gansu). The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. The price of 6517 ferromanganese in the north was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton, and in the south, due to tight supply, it was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Procurement Information**: Ningbo Iron and Steel set the ferromanganese procurement price at 5700 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory) on the 24th, up 50 yuan/ton from last month, with a procurement volume of 750 tons. Jianlong Group's ferrosilicon (72) procurement prices in different regions were: 5380 yuan/ton (550 tons) in Hebei, 5500 yuan/ton (410 tons) in Jilin, 5580 yuan/ton (400 tons) in Heilongjiang, and 5350 yuan/ton (400 tons) in Shanxi. A steel mill in Sichuan set the ferrosilicon procurement price at 5660 yuan/ton today [2][3]. - **Production Information**: In June, there were 3 ferrosilicon enterprises in production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing, with 6 submerged arc furnaces in operation. The ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate in June was 40%, the same as in May, and the expected output was 0.78 million tons, also the same as in May, with a capacity utilization rate of 30% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Affected by the decline in crude oil and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production, the downward movement of the market is blocked, and it is expected to be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, with a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The price may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [20][21]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the probability of coke price increase is low. The overall market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - Ferroalloy: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline [56]. - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price may continue to decline [69][70]. - Glass: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. Attention should be paid to the increase in cold - repair expectations if the low - price situation persists [98]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the closing prices of some steel contracts changed slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the decline in coal prices and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production and the support of raw material costs, the downward movement is blocked. In the off - season, the demand for steel is weak, and some varieties are facing inventory pressure. The export price also restricts the rise of steel prices [3]. Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The overall fundamentals of iron ore are in a state of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased year - on - year, and China's iron ore imports in June are expected to reach the highest value this year. The demand side is supported by high hot metal production, and the inventory in ports is slightly decreasing, but the rate of decrease is slowing down [20]. - **Price Outlook**: The price of iron ore may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the downstream demand is lack of confidence. The probability of coke price increase is low, and the market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the coking coal and coke contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [41]. Ferroalloy - **Market Trend**: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline. The supply side is under low pressure, and the inventory is in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is slowing down [56]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the ferroalloy contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan from the previous day [59]. Soda Ash - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The photovoltaic glass industry is in a loss state, and the demand for soda ash is expected to decline [69]. - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the soda ash contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [71]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by nearly 10%. If the market is to achieve supply - demand balance in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline to below 154,000 tons [98]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the glass contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1107 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [99].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The report presents the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon (72%FeSi, 75%FeSi) and ferromanganese (6517, 6014) in various regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin, including their daily and weekly changes, as well as historical price trends from 2021 - 2025 [1][2][6] - It also shows the prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in the futures market, including different contracts (主力合约, 01合约, 05合约, 09合约), basis, and spreads between different contracts [1][2][6] - The export and import average prices of ferrosilicon in US dollars from 2021 - 2025 are presented [2] Supply - The production data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are provided, including the monthly and weekly production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China, and the production of ferromanganese in China [4][6] - The capacity utilization rates of 136 ferrosilicon production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are shown [4] - The report also includes the production data of related industries such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium, as well as the procurement volume and price of ferrosilicon by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4] Inventory - The inventory data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are presented, including the weekly inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises in China, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises in China [5][7] - The number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are provided [5][7] - The average available days of inventory of ferrosilicon in different regions (East China, South China, North China) and in China are shown [5] Cost and Profit - The cost - related data such as electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi, and the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are presented [5] - The profit data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are provided, including the production profit of semi - coke in China, the export profit of 75 ferrosilicon, and the profit of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North China, and South China [5][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The report suggests a strategy of testing short positions on rebounds for steel. The industry is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and with the arrival of the demand off - season, prices are more likely to fall without macro - policy support [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to run strongly in a narrow range. Although the supply is expected to increase, the high domestic demand provides support. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 695 - 720 yuan/ton, and the FE07 contract price in the range of 93 - 96 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term market sentiment for coking coal and coke has improved, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The reduction in coal production and imports has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is expected to show narrow - range adjustments, following the trend of the black - metal market. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, putting pressure on prices, while the impact of ferrosilicon inventory on prices is neutral [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of futures and spot prices of various black - industry products showed different changes last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 increased by 23 yuan/ton (0.77%), and the spot price of HRB400E:Φ20 in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.32%) [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black - Industry Market Forecast - **Steel**: The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.79%, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 59.31%. The demand for finished products is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The strategy is to test short positions on rebounds [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The market was mainly affected by geopolitical factors last week. The demand for finished products was in the off - season but did not accumulate inventory. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, but high demand provides support for prices [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke continued to fluctuate last week. The 4th round of price cuts for coke by steel mills is expected to be implemented this week. The reduction in imports and production has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market reaction to the Fed's interest - rate decision was stable, but the escalation of the Middle East conflict may increase market volatility. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon has slightly recovered [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 212.18 tons (up 4.61 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 219.19 tons (down 0.78 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 551.07 tons (down 7.01 tons week - on - week) [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output was 325.45 tons (up 0.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 330.69 tons (up 10.81 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 340.17 tons (down 5.24 tons week - on - week) [27][32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import - ore port inventory (45 ports) was 13894.16 tons (down 38.98 tons week - on - week). The inventory of various ore types showed different changes [45][51]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8936.24 tons (up 137.56 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 301.00 tons/day (up 0.57 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment was 3431.0 tons (up 242.3 tons week - on - week), with different changes in shipments from different regions [71]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 952.91 tons (down 18.68 tons week - on - week), and the total coking - coal inventory was 2610.4 tons (down 11.19 tons week - on - week) [101][109]. - **Production and Profit**: The average daily coke output of independent coking enterprises was 64.7 tons (down 0.3 tons week - on - week), and the average daily coking - coal output of 523 coking mines was 74.4 tons (up 0.3 tons week - on - week) [118][119]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of ferromanganese was 5500 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5100 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [135]. - **Production and Demand**: The output of ferromanganese was 176610 tons (up 3220 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 123717 tons (up 1564 tons week - on - week). The output of ferrosilicon was 9.79 tons (up 0.28 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 19964.4 tons (up 357 tons week - on - week) [143][150].