1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比略上升，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续下降，去化速度正常。 | | | 谨慎看空 | 铁水产量延续下降态势，已低于去年同期水平。螺纹在弱驱动、低估值状态下中期或继 | | ★ | | 续维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需延续小幅下降的状态，库存降幅仍然不大，处于近年来同期最高水平， | | ★ | | 去库不畅。现货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。盘面或仍将维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂降库，港口增库。 | | ★ | | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货开启第三轮提降，各地区环保预警陆续解除， 焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，对原料端形成压制。预计短期跟随焦煤 价格区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 临近年末煤矿检修增多，预计短期供应量仍将维持偏低水平。进口方面，口岸通关车数 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6][7] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices rose and then fell, with stable basis. Steel production and inventory reduction continued, but the inventory structure was still differentiated. The reduction in production supported steel prices, but weak demand limited upward momentum. Steel prices were expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range. Hold 1 - 5 positive spreads for rebar, exit 5 - month coil - rebar spreads on dips, and consider long - position in the rebar - iron ore ratio on dips [1] Iron Ore Industry - In the short term, it was difficult to form a trend - based decline in iron ore supply - demand contradictions, and high inventory suppressed the price upside. With an increase in steel mill restarts, iron ore prices were expected to rebound slightly. It was recommended to trade the 05 contract within the 760 - 810 range [4][5] Coke Industry - Coke futures oscillated, and the third round of spot price cuts was implemented, with expectations of further cuts. Supply decreased due to pressure on coking profits, and demand weakened as steel mills increased maintenance. Overall inventory decreased slightly, and the supply - demand situation for coke weakened. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected rebound was unlikely to last. It was recommended to take profit on long positions in the J2605 contract [6] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal futures continued to rebound, and spot auction prices showed mixed trends. Supply from mines improved slightly, but production might continue to decline at the end of the year. Imported coal inventory was increasing. Demand weakened as steel mills increased maintenance and coking profits declined. Overall inventory increased slightly. It was recommended to go long on the JM2605 contract on dips [6] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon futures oscillated, with increased hedging by manufacturers driving up spot prices. Supply decreased slightly, but demand from the steel - making industry continued to contract. Inventory remained high, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent. Prices were expected to fluctuate within the 5400 - 5650 range, and it was recommended to short on price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [7] - Ferromanganese futures oscillated, with the market in a relatively balanced state. Manganese ore provided some support for prices. The key factors were the reduction in production and the expected restocking by steel mills at the end of the year. Prices were expected to remain weak, but the downward space was limited [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions showed various changes, with some prices increasing, some remaining stable, and some decreasing [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and plate billet prices remained stable. Costs and profits of different steel - making processes and in different regions also had different changes [1] Production - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 1.1% to 226.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 1.0% to 798.0 tons. Rebar production increased by 1.6% to 181.7 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.4% to 291.9 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8% to 1294.8 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 5.6% to 452.5 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.6% to 390.7 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 18.8%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.5%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.7%, while that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased by about 0.5%, and the 05 - contract basis of different powders also decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased by 0.5%, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price remained unchanged, and the Platts 62% Fe price increased slightly [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 2.8% to 2646.7 tons, and the global shipment volume decreased by 3.6% to 3464.5 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% to 11054.0 tons [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 1.8% to 313.5 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 4.9% and 3.0% respectively [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.8% to 15512.63 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 8724.0 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% to 21.0 days [4] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes, with the 01 and 05 contracts decreasing slightly. The coking profit increased slightly on a weekly basis [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts also had different changes, with the 01 contract increasing by 2.7% and the 05 contract increasing by 1.0%. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1.5% on a weekly basis [6] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5% to 63.0 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3% to 46.5 tons [6] Demand - The pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 0.4% to 900.5 tons, with different changes in the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports [6] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 0.4 to - 0.2 tons, an increase of 88.1% [6] Coking Coal Industry Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with the Shanxi coking coal price remaining stable and the Mongolian coking coal price decreasing slightly [6] Overseas Coal Prices - Overseas coal prices showed various changes, with the FOB price of the same ship remaining unchanged and the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increasing by 1.3% [6] Supply - The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 0.3% to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal production decreased by 0.1% to 438.2 tons [6] Demand - The coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5% to 63.0 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3% to 46.5 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The coking coal inventory showed various changes, with the clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increasing by 5.2%, and the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports showing different trends [6] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions increased slightly, with price increases of 0.4% - 0.6% [7] Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different changes, and the production profits also had different trends [7] Manganese Ore Supply - Manganese ore shipment volume decreased by 25.0% to 80.1 tons, arrival volume decreased by 3.4% to 74.8 tons, and desilting volume decreased by 8.6% to 59.2 tons [7] Manganese Ore Inventory - Manganese ore port inventory decreased by 0.7% to 448.3 tons [7] Production - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.1% to 10.0 tons, and the production rate decreased by 6.6% to 30.3%. Ferromanganese weekly production decreased by 0.5% to 188 tons, and the production rate decreased by 3.4% to 35.6% [7] Demand - Ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.5% to 18.8 tons, and ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.3% to 112 tons. The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.24%, and the blast furnace operation rate decreased by 0.24% [7] Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 16.3% to 65.7 tons, and the inventory - available days decreased by 2.5% to 15.4 days. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.74% to 38.5 tons, and the inventory - available days remained stable [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron was 5250, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 100; Inner Mongolia 72 was 5270, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Qinghai 72 was 5200, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50; Shaanxi 72 was 5220, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 120; Shaanxi 75 was 5650, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020, and Tianjin 75 was 1070, both unchanged [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5570, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 30; Ningxia 6517 was 5540, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50; Guangxi 6517 was 5670, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Guizhou 6517 was 5620, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Yunnan 6517 was 5620, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Guangxi 6014 was 5050, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50 [2] Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and the capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is shown, along with the procurement price and quantity of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [7] Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data include the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the export volume of silicon iron [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand - related data include the estimated production of crude steel in China, the demand in China, and the export volume [8] Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: It shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days in different regions [6] - **Silicon Manganese**: It presents the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, total inventory, inventory average available days in China, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises [8] Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data involve electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and the production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The profit data include the profit of 75 - grade silicon - iron export, the profit of Ningxia silicon - iron converted to the main contract, and the spot profit [6] - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data include the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the profit of Guangxi silicon - manganese converted to the main contract [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the finished steel prices continued to fluctuate. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to export license management but are expected to gradually digest the policy impact. The willingness for winter storage is low this year, and there may not be large - scale restocking. Attention should be paid to the possible marginal impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply of overseas shipments has decreased, the demand for molten iron has declined, and the port inventory has increased while the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall macro sentiment has improved. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate following the market, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to decline, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [20]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [22]. 3. Summary by Catalog Steel - **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60,684 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract decreased by 11,933 lots to 1.580041 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.122%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,293 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract increased by 9846 lots to 1.198397 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy View** - Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. Hot - rolled coil production dropped significantly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory continued to fall. The export license policy aims to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry. Overall, the terminal demand is weak, the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to the policy but are expected to gradually digest it. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness is low [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 778.50 yuan/ton, down 0.38% (- 3.00). The position increased by 2081 lots to 554,000 lots. The weighted position was 928,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy View** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, while those from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily molten iron output continued to decline, and the steel mill profitability remained stable. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory reached a five - year low. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information** - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 88 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed at 5648 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 52 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View** - The macro sentiment has improved. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most factors are already priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand is basically balanced, and the supply has decreased due to production losses. The future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 2.15% (+ 185). The weighted position decreased by 15,701 lots to 401,013 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View** - The price is expected to fluctuate following the market. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 59,225 yuan/ton, up 0.65% (+ 380). The weighted position decreased by 10,996 lots to 223,576 lots. The spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type re - feed material was 52.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 6875 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions from December 25 [14][16]. - **Strategy View** - The supply is expected to decline, but the decrease may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high before the Spring Festival. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information** - The main contract of glass closed at 1028 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% (- 3). The North China large - plate price was 1020 yuan, down 10; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,833 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 21,478 short positions [19]. - **Strategy View** - The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations due to insufficient terminal demand and increasing inventory pressure [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1175 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 0.51% (+ 6). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, up 18. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+ 0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory down 18,800 tons and the light - soda inventory up 23,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9114 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10,651 short positions [21]. - **Strategy View** - The downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited due to cost reduction and low profitability. Short positions can be considered [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content. Report Core View - Steel prices are supported by the cost - end but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3]. - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non - mainstream mines as the main source of incremental supply, exerting significant supply pressure. However, iron ore also has upward drivers such as the expected bottoming of hot - metal production, so it is expected to trade in a range [21]. - As terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts, the valuation repair drive may be weakened [30]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys show both weak supply and demand. Their price increase space is limited, but they are also supported by costs [46]. - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming into production, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The spot - futures basis is high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be shut down for cold repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [83]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Price - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3116 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 10 contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [4]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3330 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Beijing was 3130 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shenyang was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged [8][10]. Basis and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 204 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day; the 05 basis was 192 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 10 basis was 151 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 05 basis was - 11 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 10 basis was - 25 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 164 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 05 spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 spread was 126 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [8][10][14]. Iron Ore Price and Basis - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 796.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 09 contract was 756.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The 01 basis was - 2.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the 05 basis was 13.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the 09 basis was 34.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [22]. Fundamental Data - From December 19, 2025, the average daily hot - metal output was 226.55 tons, down 2.65 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port desilting volume was 313.45 tons, down 5.74 tons week - on - week; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 835 tons, down 4 tons week - on - week; the global shipment volume was 3464.5 tons, down 128 tons week - on - week; the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2748.6 tons, down 140.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port arrival volume was 2646.7 tons, down 76.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, up 81.21 tons week - on - week; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8723.95 tons, down 110.25 tons week - on - week; the available days for 247 steel mills were 31.09 days, down 0.1 days week - on - week [25]. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 159 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the 05 - 09 spread was - 78 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 01 - 05 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The coke 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 142 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan. The on - disk coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, down 19.281 yuan; the main mine - coke ratio was 0.447, down 0.001; the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.797, up 0.004; the main coke - coking coal ratio was 1.544, down 0.021 [33]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No.5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged [37]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 23, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 48 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 144 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Qinghai was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shaanxi was 5320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Gansu was 5300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [47]. Silicon Manganese - On December 23, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 98 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 116 yuan/ton, unchanged. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia was 5570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guizhou was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangxi was 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48][49]. Soda Ash Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.51%; the 09 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.74%; the 01 contract was 1117 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.72%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with a change of 5.56%; the 9 - 1 spread was 115 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, with a change of 0.88%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with a change of - 3.33%. The basis of Shahe heavy soda was - 50 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the basis of Qinghai heavy soda was - 249 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [61]. Spot Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the market price of heavy soda in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in South China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shahe was 1137 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The market price of light soda in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between heavy and light soda in most regions was 50 - 70 yuan/ton [61]. Glass Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1028 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.29%; the 09 contract was 1130 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the 01 contract was 938 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was 192 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 77 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; in Hubei was 159 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 05 contract basis in Shahe was - 33 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was 59 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was - 130 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was - 41 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [84]. Sales and Production - From December 13 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was between 69 - 98%; in Hubei was between 75 - 109%; in East China was between 83 - 98%; in South China was between 95 - 107% [85].

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 第一部分 | | | | 市场信息 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5648 | 4 | 166 | 241006 | -61992 | 250343 | 129 | | SM主力合约 | 5822 | -18 | 86 | 159916 | -56278 | 280367 | -1468 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5350 | 20 | 70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5570 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月23日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3300 | 3300 | O | 172 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 42 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3260 | 3270 | -10 | 132 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3126 | 3119 | 7 | 174 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3159 | 3151 | 8 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3128 | 3120 | 8 | 172 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | -12 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3180 | 3180 | 0 | -102 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness to store this year is low, and large - scale restocking may not occur. The macro - level is in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to whether the "dual - carbon" policy will be strengthened again and have a marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the recent market environment is relatively mild. After the decline of hot metal to the current level, the marginal pressure may ease. The Spring Festival in 2026 is late, and the restocking time is postponed. The current low inventory of steel mills provides some room for restocking demand. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be led by the direction of the black sector. For manganese silicon, the cost push from manganese ore is a key factor, and for ferrosilicon, supply contraction due to losses is important. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, its own driving force is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the gap between expectations and reality and the differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain continue. The futures price trend is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. - For glass, the demand recovery is still weak, and it is expected to continue to oscillate narrowly in the short term [19]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.224%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60684 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 23108 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3277 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.244%). The registered warehouse receipts increased by 889 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 2627 lots [1]. - **Strategy**: Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased significantly, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory continued to fall. Overall, terminal demand is weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 781.50 yuan/ton, up 0.19% (+1.50). The open interest increased by 17048 lots to 55.20 million lots. The weighted open interest was 93.42 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 62.04 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.36% [4]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. The daily average hot - metal output continued to decline, and the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei increased. The port inventory continued to rise, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory reached the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On December 22, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) closed up 0.55% at 5840 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 70 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.07% at 5644 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 56 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. For ferrosilicon, supply has decreased due to losses. The future market will be affected by the black sector, manganese ore cost for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for ferrosilicon. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8595 yuan/ton, down 1.09% (-95). The weighted open interest increased by 9649 lots to 416714 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China were stable, with basis values of 605 yuan/ton and 255 yuan/ton respectively [12]. - **Strategy**: The industrial silicon price oscillated downward. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand support from polysilicon weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 58845 yuan/ton, down 2.32% (-1400). The weighted open interest decreased by 13275 lots to 234572 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were stable, with a basis of - 6445 yuan/ton [14]. - **Strategy**: The polysilicon output is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is difficult to relieve before the Spring Festival. The futures price trend is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract closed at 1031 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.96% (-10). The prices in North China and Central China were stable. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 331000 boxes (+0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 18027 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 29200 short positions [18]. - **Strategy**: The demand recovery is weak, and it is expected to continue to oscillate narrowly in the short term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract closed at 1169 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.60% (-7). The price in Shahe decreased by 11 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 0.50 million tons (+0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing and the light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 10809 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10322 short positions [20]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price (Silicon Iron) - On December 23, 2025, the latest spot prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5220 and 5250 respectively, with daily changes of 20 and 0, and weekly changes of 20 and 30 [2] - The latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract of silicon iron were 5644 and 5516 respectively, with daily changes of 4 and -6, and weekly changes of 126 and 106 [2] - The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 1020 US dollars, with no daily or weekly changes [2] Price (Silicon Manganese) - On December 23, 2025, the ex - factory prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 silicon manganese were 5550, 5540, 5650, 5600, and 5600 respectively, with different daily and weekly changes [2] - The latest price of the main contract of silicon manganese was 5840, with a daily change of 32 and a weekly change of 82 [2] Supply (Silicon Iron) - Data shows the production volume, capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly and weekly data [5] Supply (Silicon Manganese) - The production volume of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 was presented, along with the purchase price and quantity of HeSteel Group [7] Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 was shown, related to factors such as the production of steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel [5][8] Inventory (Silicon Iron) - The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, from 2021 - 2025 were provided, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and average available days of inventory [6] Inventory (Silicon Manganese) - The inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and average available days of inventory from 2021 - 2025 were presented [8] Cost and Profit (Silicon Iron) - The cost and profit data of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 were shown, including production cost, profit on the main contract, and spot profit [6] Cost and Profit (Silicon Manganese) - The profit data of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region from 2021 - 2025 were presented, as well as the profit on the main contract [8]