出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI制图 2025年，"易中天"（新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信）不仅是A股AI算力赛道的图腾，更是无数股民口中 津津乐道的"财富密码"。 然而，进入2026年，风向变得有些诡谲。 虽然A股整体氛围依然躁动，但资金对"易中天"的态度却从"狂热"转向了"审视"。 开年以来，仅仅不到一个月，新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信分别录得了11.11%、6.83%和4.10%的跌 幅。 下跌本身并不可怕，可怕的是背后的逻辑支撑正在瓦解。 近日，天孚通信和剑桥科技相继发布的2025年业绩预告，像两盆冷水，浇在了还沉浸在"算力永不眠"美 梦中的投资者头上。 天孚通信预计2025年归母净利润18.81亿至21.5亿元，同比增长40%-60%。看似不错的增长，但中位数不 仅低于机构一致预期的21.45亿元，更重要的是，其隐含的四季度增速令人不安。 另一家光模块玩家剑桥科技更是不容乐观，预计全年净利2.52亿至2.78亿元，远低于预期的3.02亿元。 早在2025年12月9日，虎嗅妙投就在《"易中天"的"泡沫"炒到2027年》一文中预警：资本市场已经透支 了光模块未来两年的业 ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Measures - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng stated that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds has been allocated to support equipment renewal across various sectors, expected to drive total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [2] - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on January 23, net injecting 700 billion yuan into the market, marking the 11th consecutive month of increased operations [2] Consumer and Investment Trends - The six major state-owned banks collectively announced the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies, allowing some high-quality clients to enjoy effective interest rates as low as 2%, even lower than current housing loan rates [1] - Public funds have focused their fourth-quarter 2025 positions on core sectors such as electronics and power equipment, with Zhongji Xuchuang becoming the largest holding stock [1] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.14% to 4122.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.5% [3] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced minor fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.17% to 26629.96 points, while southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 5.166 billion HKD [3] Corporate Developments - Alibaba Group has decided to support its chip subsidiary "Pingtouge" for independent listing, with plans for restructuring to establish it as a mixed-ownership enterprise [4] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO status has changed to "inquired," aiming to raise 7.5 billion yuan to become the "first stock in commercial aerospace" [4] - Yuanqi Forest is reportedly considering a Hong Kong listing, although the company has stated there are currently no IPO plans [4] Regulatory and Policy Updates - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a red card for the first time in the public utility sector, prohibiting a merger case involving gas companies in Foshan [7] - Nine departments jointly issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, encouraging mergers and acquisitions among retail pharmacies [7] - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance announced a subsidy program for elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities, set to be implemented nationwide starting January 1, 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the contrasting trading strategies of long-term fund managers compared to the overall public fund adjustments in Q4 2025, indicating a unique approach to navigating the structural market conditions [1] Fund Manager Adjustments - In Q4 2025, Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) became the largest holding for public funds, with an increase of over 22 billion yuan, while many long-term fund managers chose to reduce their positions in this stock by over 40% [2] - Similar trends were observed with Xinyisheng (300502), where public funds increased holdings by over 9 billion yuan, yet long-term fund manager Yang Dong reduced his position by over 40% [3] Divergence in Stock Adjustments - There were notable differences among long-term fund managers regarding their adjustments in Xinyisheng, with some increasing their positions while others significantly reduced theirs [3] - Industrial Fulian (601138) exited the top ten holdings for public funds, while some fund managers drastically reduced their positions, with reductions exceeding 80% [3] - In contrast, Zijin Mining (601899) and Shengyi Technology (600183) saw overall increases in public fund holdings, but individual fund managers had varying strategies, with some increasing and others decreasing their stakes [3] Position Management - Many long-term fund managers opted to lower their stock positions in Q4 2025, with significant reductions noted, such as a drop from 78.70% to 62.74% in one fund [4] - Other funds also reported reductions in stock positions ranging from 1% to 10% [4] Portfolio Diversification - Long-term funds generally maintained a high concentration in their top ten holdings, but there was a noticeable decrease in concentration compared to Q3 2025, with some funds seeing reductions of over 25 percentage points [5][6] - The focus of many fund managers shifted towards diversified sectors, including AI, cyclical industries, and consumer sectors, indicating a broader investment strategy [6] Sector Focus - The cyclical sector became a popular area for public fund increases, with significant investments in non-ferrous metals and chemicals [7] - Consumer and social service sectors also saw increased attention from fund managers, with notable additions to top holdings in these areas [8] Major Changes in Top Holdings - Several funds underwent significant changes in their top ten holdings, with multiple stocks being replaced, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [9] Outlook for 2026 - Fund managers expressed optimism for the A-share market in 2026, anticipating a potential upward trend driven by multiple positive factors [10] - AI applications are expected to be a core focus, with varying strategies among fund managers regarding their investment in AI-related sectors [11] - The cyclical sector is recognized for its investment potential, with expectations of improved performance in related industries [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the contrasting trading strategies of long-term fund managers compared to the overall public fund adjustments in Q4 2025, indicating a divergence in stock selection amidst a volatile market environment [1][2]. Fund Manager Adjustments - In Q4 2025, Zhongji Xuchuang replaced Ningde Times as the top holding for public funds, with an increase in market value exceeding 22 billion yuan. However, several long-term fund managers chose to reduce their positions in Zhongji Xuchuang, with reductions exceeding 40% by managers like Mo Haibo and Shen Ai Qian [1][2]. - Similar trends were observed with another popular stock, Xinyi Semiconductor, where public funds increased holdings by over 9 billion yuan, yet long-term fund manager Yang Dong reduced his position by over 40% [2]. - Notably, Industrial Fulian exited the top ten holdings for public funds, while some long-term managers like Liu Yuanhai increased their positions, showcasing differing strategies among fund managers [3]. Portfolio Management - Many long-term fund managers opted to lower their stock positions in Q4 2025, aligning with the overall trend of reduced stock allocations in public funds. For instance, the stock allocation of Mo Haibo's fund dropped from 85.20% to 71.92%, a decrease of approximately 13 percentage points [4]. - The concentration of holdings among long-term funds remained high, with many funds having over 50% of their net asset value in the top ten holdings, although some funds showed a noticeable decrease in concentration compared to Q3 2025 [5]. Sector Allocation - Fund managers displayed a diversified approach in their sector allocations, favoring areas such as AI, cyclical stocks, and consumer sectors. For example, Yang Dong's fund gained excess returns by focusing on AI and robotics, while Liu Yuanhai's fund adjusted its AI allocations during Q4 2025 [6][7]. - The cyclical sector gained traction among fund managers, with significant investments in non-ferrous metals and chemicals. For instance, Li You's fund made substantial increases in holdings of companies like Zijin Mining and Yun Aluminum [6][9]. - In the consumer and social services sectors, managers like Mo Haibo and Miao Weibin focused on domestic demand-related stocks, indicating a strategic shift towards consumer resilience and emerging consumption trends [6][9]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, long-term fund managers maintain an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, anticipating a potential upward trend driven by multiple positive factors, including corporate earnings recovery and improved liquidity [7][8]. - The AI sector remains a focal point, with managers emphasizing the importance of AI applications over hardware, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards practical applications of AI technology [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that foreign public funds have significantly increased their investments in China's technology sector, with many products achieving over 50% net value growth in 2025, driven by a focus on leading tech companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Hanwha, and Xinyisheng [1][2] - In 2025, several foreign public fund products, such as BlackRock Advanced Manufacturing One-Year Holding Mixed A and Allianz China Select Mixed A, reported net value growth rates exceeding 50%, despite a fourth-quarter pullback in A-share tech growth stocks [2][3] - Foreign public funds maintained a "neutral to high" position in the fourth quarter of 2025, focusing on technology sectors including AI, high-end manufacturing, and low-carbon growth [3] Group 2 - Foreign public funds are optimistic about the A-share market for 2026, believing that high-quality tech assets will continue to lead, with a preference for "overweight equities" in their portfolio strategies [4] - Fund managers from Allianz and BlackRock expressed that A-shares are more attractive compared to RMB bonds, indicating a sustained focus on equities while dynamically adjusting their overweight positions based on market conditions [4] - The emphasis on technology assets as a core investment theme is expected to yield significant excess returns in 2026, as foreign public funds increase their allocation to Chinese tech assets [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that AI-themed stocks have become the central focus of public fund investments, with Zhongji Xuchuang emerging as the top holding stock for public funds by the end of 2025, marking a significant shift in investment trends [1][2][3] - Zhongji Xuchuang's rise to the top indicates that AI has transitioned from a mere concept to a core industry driver, reflecting a new economic growth engine [2][3] - The shift in public fund holdings from traditional sectors like finance and consumption to AI stocks signifies a broader transformation in the economic landscape, driven by technological innovation [1][3][4] Group 2 - The historical context shows that public fund holdings have evolved alongside China's economic development, from heavy industries to technology-driven sectors, highlighting the changing dynamics of investment preferences [2][3] - The current investment landscape reveals that traditional sectors, such as consumer goods and pharmaceuticals, are losing prominence, with only 11 traditional companies appearing in the top 50 holdings of public funds [3][4] - Fund managers are now required to possess deep insights into industry trends and continuous learning capabilities, moving beyond static financial analysis to adapt to rapid technological advancements [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the contrasting strategies of long-term fund managers in the fourth quarter of 2025, showcasing their unique approaches to portfolio adjustments amidst market trends, particularly in the context of popular stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng. Group 1: Fund Manager Strategies - Long-term fund managers are reducing their positions in popular stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, despite it being the top holding for public funds, with some managers cutting their stakes by over 40% [2][3] - There is a notable divergence among fund managers regarding their positions in stocks like Xinyi Sheng, with some increasing their holdings while others significantly reduce them [2][3] - Fund managers are also moving away from high concentration holdings, opting for a more diversified portfolio approach, as seen in the significant reductions in the concentration of top holdings [4] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Trends - The AI industry remains a focal point for investment, but fund managers are diversifying their portfolios to include sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and military [4] - There is a growing interest in cyclical sectors, with managers increasing their positions in aluminum, copper, and chemicals, indicating a shift in investment strategy [5] - The consumer and social services sectors are also seeing increased investment, with managers adding new positions in companies related to tourism and luxury goods [6] Group 3: Market Outlook for 2026 - Fund managers express optimism for the market in 2026, anticipating a potential upward trend driven by profit recovery and liquidity [7] - The focus on AI applications is expected to shift from foundational infrastructure to practical applications, with specific attention on AI-driven technologies [7] - Investment in cyclical sectors is expected to remain valuable, with managers highlighting the potential for recovery in aluminum and copper prices [7]

Core Insights - The rise of AI has positioned companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng as top holdings in public funds, reflecting a significant shift in investment focus towards AI-related stocks [2][6][13] - Traditional industry leaders, particularly in the liquor sector, are losing their prominence in public fund portfolios, with Kweichow Moutai dropping to the ninth position among top holdings [6][14] - The transformation in fund holdings illustrates broader economic and industrial changes, emphasizing the need for fund managers to adapt to rapidly evolving market conditions [7][17] Group 1: Investment Trends - By the end of 2025, Zhongji Xuchuang became the top holding in public funds with a total market value of approximately 78.42 billion yuan, representing 11.63% of its circulating shares [4] - Xinyi Sheng followed closely as the second-largest holding with a market value of about 65.70 billion yuan, accounting for 17.23% of its circulating shares [4] - The top five holdings also include companies like Ningde Times, Tencent, and Cambricon, indicating a strong presence of technology and AI-related firms in the investment landscape [3][4] Group 2: Industry Shifts - The latest public fund reports show a significant concentration of holdings in the information technology sector, with 18 out of the top 50 stocks belonging to this category [3] - The decline of traditional consumer and pharmaceutical companies in fund portfolios highlights a shift in investor sentiment towards sectors that promise higher growth potential, particularly in technology [6][14] - The transition from traditional investment strategies to those focused on innovation and technology reflects a broader economic shift towards high-quality growth and innovation-driven models [7][17] Group 3: Future Outlook - The emergence of AI as a central theme in investment strategies indicates a new economic cycle driven by technological advancements, with public funds collectively investing heavily in this sector [14][15] - Fund managers are increasingly recognizing the importance of adapting to industry trends and technological changes, moving beyond traditional metrics of value and growth [16][17] - The ongoing AI wave is seen as a critical factor for future investment decisions, with fund managers acknowledging the necessity of engaging with this transformative trend [15][16]

Core Insights - The number of "trillion-yuan cities" in China has increased to 29, with notable cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and newly added cities such as Wenzhou and Dalian [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Growth and City Rankings - Dalian has achieved a GDP of 1,000.21 billion yuan in 2025, marking it as the first "trillion-yuan city" in Northeast China [2][13] - Wenzhou's GDP is projected to surpass 1 trillion yuan, making it the third "trillion-yuan city" in Zhejiang province [2][12] - Shanghai's GDP is expected to reach 56,708.71 billion yuan in 2025, while Beijing's GDP is projected at 52,073.4 billion yuan, both showing a growth rate of 5.4% [5][6][7] Group 2: Regional Distribution and Characteristics - The 29 "trillion-yuan cities" include 4 municipalities, 11 provincial capitals, 4 separately planned cities, and 10 prefecture-level cities, with a majority located in southern China [3][4] - Jiangsu and Guangdong are the provinces with the highest number of "trillion-yuan cities," with 5 and 4 cities respectively [3][4] Group 3: Economic Strategies and Innovations - Shanghai is focusing on industrial growth, with significant increases in sectors like transportation equipment and electrical machinery [7][8] - Beijing is emphasizing quality over quantity in its economic development, particularly in the information technology sector [9] - Guangzhou is investing heavily in advanced manufacturing, with industrial investment rising from 103 billion yuan in 2020 to 171.1 billion yuan in 2024 [10][11] Group 4: Future Prospects for Emerging Cities - Cities like Xuzhou, Shenyang, and Shaoxing are nearing the "trillion-yuan" threshold, with Xuzhou's GDP projected to grow by 5.8% and Shenyang's GDP at 9,027.1 billion yuan [18][19] - The transition from 800 billion to 1 trillion yuan requires a focus on innovation and industrial integration, aiming for a comprehensive enhancement of urban competitiveness [20]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is the significant shift in public fund holdings towards AI-related stocks, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng emerging as the top two holdings, reflecting a broader trend of investment in technology and innovation [1][2][13] - By the end of 2025, the top five holdings in public funds include several AI-related companies, indicating a strong preference for technology stocks over traditional sectors [2][5] - The article highlights the decline of traditional consumer and pharmaceutical stocks, with Kweichow Moutai dropping to the ninth position among top holdings, showcasing a shift in investor sentiment [5][6] Group 2 - The report indicates that 18 out of the top 50 public fund holdings are in the information technology sector, underscoring the dominance of tech stocks in current investment strategies [2][4] - The rise of AI stocks is contrasted with the fading popularity of traditional sectors, as only 11 consumer and pharmaceutical companies remain in the top holdings, reflecting a significant industry transformation [5][6] - The article emphasizes that the changes in fund holdings are indicative of deeper economic and industry shifts, moving from traditional growth models to innovation-driven growth [6][7][17] Group 3 - Zhongji Xuchuang's rise to the top position among public fund holdings signifies the transition of AI from a conceptual phase to a core industry driver, marking a new economic cycle centered around AI [13][14] - The article discusses the necessity for fund managers to adapt to the evolving landscape, where understanding industry trends and technological advancements is crucial for investment success [16][17] - The investment community is increasingly recognizing AI as a critical area for future growth, with fund managers acknowledging the importance of engaging with AI technologies in their portfolios [15][16]