2、持续理解市场需求，产能储备、柔性化能力提升。据业绩会，公司现有毛绒产能相较年初已增加10 倍左右，达每月3000 万件，持续对市场需求进行理解与追赶——8 月28 日发售的mini LABUBU"心底密 码"系列毛绒挂件再度引起粉丝热情，虽仍在短时间内售罄，但消费者整体购买体验有明显优化；展望 后续，伴随对更多区域市场需求的理解更加深入，叠加产能及供应链安排优化带来的供应链柔性，我们 认为公司对需求与供给的匹配能力与精准度将进一步提升。 3、海外市场快速成长，运营仍有待细化之处，长期空间仍广。目前泡泡海外市场热度持续向好，泰国 ICONSIAM旗舰店在8 月初开业后店效出色，对其他门店亦并无虹吸效应，美国快速开店但需求增长更 快，带来线上占比持续提升。而相比国内，海外门店模型、线上官网、会员体系等运营细节均有待细化 之处，我们认为公司的零售基因与能力有望支撑近两年快速扩张后的同店向好，持续看好公司全球化战 略的长期空间。 盈利预测与估值 研究员：徐卓楠/张雪晴/王杰睿 公司近况 近期我们邀请了泡泡玛特管理层进行业绩后NDR交流，与投资者就供应链、IP运营、品类扩张等话题进 行了深入沟通。 评论 1、品类扩 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a quick decline on September 4, with the new consumption sector showing continuous fluctuations after opening. The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) saw a slight decrease, while stocks like Bilibili, Baisheng China, Li Auto, Giant Bio, and Bosideng showed notable gains [1] - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) economy is expanding across all age groups, with rapid growth and structural differentiation in the market. The doll category, driven by strong IP resonance and high collectible value, is expected to become a core growth driver for the toy segment. Demand is shifting from Generation Z and female groups to all age segments, while supply is innovating through blind box play and live card unboxing [1] - The medical beauty industry is entering a new phase, with domestic beauty and skincare brands expected to accelerate their breakout. Domestic brands are quickly gaining traction, and the importance of content e-commerce channels is increasing. New raw material registrations are accelerating, allowing brands to strengthen consumer recognition through scientific narratives and technological endorsements [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities points out that under the joint catalysis of new demands, new scenarios, and new models, the consumption sector is presenting distinct structural opportunities. The demand side is rapidly upgrading towards emotional and personalized experiences, with significant growth in high emotional value categories such as trendy toys and beauty products [1] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, packaging leading internet e-commerce companies and new consumption sectors. Its constituent stocks encompass nearly all areas of Hong Kong consumption, including new consumption leaders like Pop Mart, Laopuyuan Gold, and Miniso, as well as internet e-commerce giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, highlighting a strong technology and consumption attribute [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the success of the LABUBU IP under Pop Mart and emphasizes the need for sustainable development and diversification of product lines to avoid over-reliance on a single IP [2]. Group 1: LABUBU's Success and Challenges - LABUBU is a highly successful phenomenon in the collectible toy market, but its dominance raises concerns about sustainability and the need for Pop Mart to develop other IPs [2]. - The long-term shortage of LABUBU led to counterfeit products entering the market, and while production capacity has been increased, there have been complaints about product quality that need to be addressed [2]. - The popularity of the mini LABUBU continues to drive sales, but it is essential for Pop Mart to innovate and develop new IPs alongside LABUBU to maintain market relevance [2][3]. Group 2: Potential New IPs - The Star People IP under Pop Mart shows significant potential to become the next successful product line, particularly with the recent "Good Dream Meteorological Bureau" series gaining popularity [4]. - There has been a noticeable increase in demand for Star People products, leading to stock shortages in stores, similar to the sales model of LABUBU [4]. - The secondary market for Star People products has seen rapid price fluctuations, with hidden variants selling for over 700 yuan, indicating strong market interest and potential for growth [5]. Group 3: Growth Metrics - Star People has quickly entered the billion-yuan IP club, generating 390 million yuan in revenue in the first half of the year [5]. - Other IPs like HACIPUPU and CRYBABY have also shown impressive growth, with revenue increases of 249.6% and 248.7% respectively in the first half of the year, highlighting the potential for new IPs to achieve similar success [5].

第一财经记者近期走访了部分泡泡玛特门店，看到前来提货"迷你版LABUBU"的消费者排起了长队。店员告诉记者，目前"迷你版LABUBU"在门店是没有 现货的，都要在线订购，在线抢购成功后再根据约定来提货。 "我蹲守在开售时间点，但依然没有抢到LABUBU的最新迷你款，现在二手市场对于LABUBU迷你版娃娃的价格已经炒上去了。"消费者小吴对第一财经 记者抱怨。 就在日前，泡泡玛特"迷你版LABUBU"（THE MONSTERS心底密码系列）开售，单个售价79元，单组为1106元。"迷你版LABUBU"线上开售仅1分钟，京 东、淘宝等线上店铺即售罄。 据了解，"迷你版LABUBU"分为A、B两组，各含14个常规款，1个隐藏款，高约10.5厘米，售价79元一只，单组1106元。天猫页面显示，正式开售时，有 超58万人加购了"迷你版LABUBU"。 直播间10分钟涌入近150万人。 正是因为新品如此受欢迎，于是"迷你版LABUBU"在二手平台的价格也开始"水涨船高"。根据记者观察，在二手平台，"迷你版LABUBU"单组价格已冲上 2450元，且即便溢价也很难抢到。 作者 | 第一财经 乐琰 揭书宜 宋婕 ...

2025.09. 03 正是因为新品如此受欢迎，于是"迷你版LABUBU"在二手平台的价格也开始"水涨船高"。根据记者观察，在二手平台， "迷你版LABUBU"单组价格已 冲上2450元 ，且即便溢价也很难抢到。 微信编辑 | 夏木 本文字数：526，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 第一财经 乐琰 揭书宜 宋婕 "我蹲守在开售时间点，但依然没有抢到LABUBU的最新迷你款，现在二手市场对于LABUBU迷你版娃娃的价格已经炒上去了。"消费者小吴对第一财 经记者抱怨。 就在日前，泡泡玛特"迷你版LABUBU"（THE MONSTERS心底密码系列）开售，单个售价79元， 单组为1106元。 "迷你版LABUBU"线上开售仅1分 钟，京东、淘宝等线上店铺即售罄。 据了解，"迷你版LABUBU"分为A、B两组，各含14个常规款，1个隐藏款，高约10.5厘米，售价79元一只，单组1106元。天猫页面显示，正式开售 时，有超58万人加购了"迷你版LABUBU"。 直播间10分钟涌入近150万人。 第一财经记者近期走访了部分泡泡玛特门店，看到前来提货"迷你版LABUBU"的消费者排起了长队。店员告诉记者，目前"迷你版LABU ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.16% and the Consumer ETF (159928) falling by 1.61%, with a total trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF has seen a net subscription of 46 million units, indicating a strong inflow of funds, with a cumulative "capital absorption" exceeding 1.1 billion yuan over the past ten days [1] Consumption Policies - Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province announced a tiered subsidy for hotel banquets based on the number of tables and total expenditure, as part of its upcoming "2025 Shaoxing Consumption Promotion Policy" [3] - The policy focuses on three areas: integration of culture, commerce, and tourism; expansion of new consumption scenarios; and distribution of consumption vouchers, comprising 15 specific measures [3] Long-term Investment Trends - Long-term funds are adopting a high-dividend strategy, with a focus on technology as a growth driver and consumer sectors as a defensive shield [6] - There is a notable shift in fund allocation, with increased investments in technology sectors such as TMT and military-related ETFs, while also showing renewed interest in low-position domestic consumer goods [6] Consumer Sector Insights - The white liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with companies actively adjusting their product channels, presenting potential bottom-fishing opportunities [7] - The consumer landscape is evolving with new demands for emotional and personalized products, particularly in categories like trendy toys and beauty products, which are experiencing significant growth [8][11] Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption is projected to account for 46.1% of household spending by 2024, contributing 63% to overall consumption growth, indicating a shift towards a more significant role in defining lifestyles and emotional connections [14] ETF Composition - The Consumer ETF (159928) has a strong resilience to economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68% of its weight, including leading liquor brands and major consumer goods companies [17][18]

Core Insights - The recent launch of the mini LABUBU dolls has created a significant demand, leading to rapid sellouts and inflated prices in the secondary market [2][3][4] - While the new mini LABUBU dolls are highly sought after, older models have seen a drastic price drop, with some being sold at or below original prices [4][5] - Quality issues have emerged with the new LABUBU dolls, prompting consumer complaints and returns, raising concerns about the brand's quality control [6][7][8] Pricing Dynamics - The mini LABUBU dolls are priced at 79 yuan each and 1106 yuan for a set, with over 580,000 items added to shopping carts at launch [2] - In the secondary market, the price for a set of mini LABUBU has surged to 2450 yuan, reflecting the high demand [3] - Older LABUBU models, which previously sold for 300-3000 yuan, are now being listed at original prices or even at a loss, indicating a market correction [4][5] Quality Concerns - Consumers have reported various quality issues with the new LABUBU dolls, including stability problems and cosmetic defects [6][7] - Complaints have been made regarding the inconsistency in quality across different production batches, raising questions about manufacturing practices [7] - The company has a policy for handling defective products, allowing for exchanges or refunds, but some consumers feel their rights are not adequately protected [7][8] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 138.8 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, with net profit rising by 362.8% [9][10] - The LABUBU series accounted for 48.1 billion yuan in revenue, representing 34.7% of total sales [10] - The company aims for a revenue target of 200 billion yuan for the year, with potential to exceed 300 billion yuan [10] Future Prospects - The company is exploring new IPs to sustain growth, as reliance on LABUBU may not be sustainable long-term [10][11] - The "Star People" IP is gaining traction and may become the next big hit, with recent releases showing strong sales performance [11][12] - Other IPs like HACIPUPU and CRYBABY are also experiencing rapid growth, indicating a healthy diversification strategy [12]

Core Insights - LABUBU series from Pop Mart has seen explosive sales growth, with an 8-fold increase in the US and a 5-fold increase in Europe compared to last year, indicating a successful operational logic based on "familiar relationships" in the trendy toy sector [1] - Ark Health, recognized as the "first stock in AI chronic disease management," is applying a similar "familiar doctor-patient relationship" model in the online chronic disease management sector, establishing a new ecosystem for smart healthcare [1][2] - Citigroup has initiated coverage on Ark Health's brand, Ark Jianke, with a "buy" rating and a target price of HKD 8.5, suggesting over a 100% upside from the recent trading price of around HKD 4, based on the company's loyal and active user base [1] Company Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Ark Health's registered users reached 52.8 million, reflecting a steady year-on-year growth of 15.8%, while monthly active users surged by 34.4% to 11.9 million [3] - The number of registered doctors on the platform increased to 229,000, with 58.9% affiliated with top-tier hospitals, indicating a robust growth in both user and provider engagement [3] - The platform's user retention remains high, with a paid user repurchase rate rising to 85.4%, showcasing strong customer loyalty [3] Technological Integration - Ark Health has upgraded its "AI + H2H smart healthcare ecosystem," integrating advanced AI models to enhance operational efficiency and service quality [4] - The company has developed AI tools such as AI doctor assistants and AI customer service assistants, which have significantly improved the efficiency of healthcare providers and personalized health services [4] - Ark Health is positioned as a leader in the "AI + internet healthcare" space, leveraging technology to create a new benchmark in chronic disease management services [4] Market Outlook - The company aims to deepen the construction of its "AI + H2H smart healthcare ecosystem" and continue to cultivate the "familiar relationship" model, which is expected to drive ongoing technological and service upgrades [4] - With the potential in the trillion-dollar chronic disease management market, Ark Health is poised to make significant strides in the sector, providing differentiated practical examples for industry development [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of co-branding in the Chinese market, particularly in the "谷子经济" (Guzi Economy), highlighting the increasing frequency and variety of collaborations between brands and popular IPs [1][2][3] Group 1: Co-Branding Trends - By 2025, co-branding cases in China are expected to reach thousands, with nearly a hundred collaborations in the new tea beverage sector alone [1] - Successful co-branding hinges on strong IP and unique products, with a good IP collaboration potentially amplifying commercial value by 10 to 40 times [1][12] - The "谷子经济" is characterized by high brand premiums, yet many participants remain traditional toy and stationery manufacturers [3][24] Group 2: Financial Performance - Keep's online membership and paid content revenue fell to 330 million yuan, a 23% year-on-year decline, attributed to a decrease in virtual sports events [2][19] - The combined profits of several listed companies in the IP sector are less than Lego's 7.2 billion yuan net profit [2] - Sales expenses for major companies in the "谷子经济" have increased, indicating the financial strain of frequent co-branding [4][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The new tea beverage sector has seen a significant rise in sales expenses, exceeding 2.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, but many companies are adjusting their cost structures [8][9] - The article notes that while high-frequency co-branding can drive sales, it has also led to increased sales expenses for listed companies [4][8] - The performance of co-branding initiatives varies, with some brands struggling to convert new consumers into loyal customers [20][24] Group 4: Successful Case Studies - The collaboration between Wanda Films and the IP "光与夜之恋" generated over 106 million yuan in sales, showcasing the potential of high-profile IP partnerships [1][17] - The "哪吒2" collaboration led to a significant increase in revenue for Pop Mart, with a year-on-year growth of over 100% in IP licensing income [13][17] - The article emphasizes the importance of unique and differentiated products in successful co-branding, as seen in the case of Wanda's popcorn "痛桶" [27][28]

Group 1 - The core of new consumption is not about "new brands" but the ability to "solve user tasks," emphasizing the importance of understanding consumers' real needs in specific scenarios [2][3] - The rise of new consumption represents a "user task revolution," where consumers actively choose products that meet their life, emotional, and social needs, moving towards a more equal and human-centered market [1][11] - The traditional business logic is being disrupted by a "task-oriented" approach, with significant growth in both the affluent Z generation and the rational, potential-rich lower-tier markets [3][4] Group 2 - The "value-for-money revolution" is shifting from low-price competition to a consensus on quality-price balance, with brands like 瑞幸 and 名创优品 providing high-quality products at reasonable prices [4][5] - The rise of "self-care consumption" is notable, with 73% of urban white-collar workers willing to spend on long-term psychological satisfaction rather than short-term material possession [5][6] - The integration of domestic products with cultural elements is becoming a significant trend, as brands convey cultural identity through their offerings, enhancing consumer engagement [6][12] Group 3 - The report highlights the structural imbalance in resource allocation, with traditional brands focusing on high-end urban markets while neglecting the potential of lower-tier markets, which now account for 59% of total consumption [24][25] - Traditional businesses face challenges due to a product-centric approach that fails to address the complex task needs of consumers, leading to the rise of new brands that offer comprehensive solutions [25][28] - The shift towards digital channels is evident, with online shopping growing at 10.8% while traditional retail experiences a decline, indicating a need for businesses to adapt to immediate consumer demands [28][29]