Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on May 28, 2025, was 5326.00, with a daily increase of 0.98597%. The closing prices on May 27, May 26, May 23, and May 22 were 5274.00, 5402.00, 5464.00, and 5426.00 respectively [2]. - The corresponding converted US - dollar prices were 646.85, 640.08, 656.79, 663.95, and 657.94 respectively [2]. - The Shandong Yinxing basis on May 28, 2025, was 889, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 899 [2]. Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp, the CFR price of Golden Lion was 800 US dollars, and the RMB price in Shandong was 6650, with an import profit of 80.24. The CFR price of Lion was 730 US dollars, and the RMB price in Shandong was 5750, with an import loss of 236.03. For Chilean pulp, the CFR price of Yinxing (90 - day letter of credit) was 740 US dollars, and the RMB price in Shandong was 6215, with an import profit of 132.72 [3]. Group 3: Pulp Price Averages - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The average prices in Shandong also remained unchanged [3]. - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and the life - paper index showed little change during this period, except for a 1 - point decrease in the life - paper index [3]. Group 4: Pulp Product Profit Margins - From May 23 to May 28, 2025, the estimated profit margins of double - offset paper increased from 7.2058% to 8.2932%, double - copper paper increased from 22.1612% to 23.0304%, white - card paper increased from - 12.8313% to - 10.7500%, and life - paper decreased from 8.7718% to 10.3519% [3]. Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - On May 28, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper were 2105.00, 815, 2340, and 4639 respectively [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - The current demand for pulp is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 27, 2025, SP2601 was 5216, down 1.58% day - on - day and 2.21% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5274, down 2.37% day - on - day and 2.51% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5184, down 2.19% day - on - day and 2.59% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On May 27, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6200, down 0.80% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5350, down 1.83% day - on - day and week - on - week; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4100, down 2.38% day - on - day and week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In May 2025, the outer - disk quote of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton; Star was 560 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars/ton; Venus was 620 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton [1] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 6046, down 3.87% month - on - month; Star was 4587, down 11.00% month - on - month; Venus was 5073, down 4.57% month - on - month [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1813, up 20.70% month - on - month [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 215.7 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [1] - **Demand**: Among the main finished paper production, the production of white cardboard increased slightly, and the production of other paper types was stable. Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor, and downstream paper mills made rigid - demand purchases [1] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 76, with a quantile level of 0.833; the Silver Star basis was 926, with a quantile level of 0.979 [1] - **Import Profit**: On May 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 154, with a quantile level of 0.808; the import profit of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 487, with a quantile level of 0.2 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated May 28, 2025 [2] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 3. Core View - New round of imported pulp offers are mainly decreasing, port de - stocking is still slow. Downstream paper mills have issued price - increase notices, boosting market confidence, but their raw material procurement is cautious. Pulp is likely to maintain low - level range - bound adjustment in the future [8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The pre - settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5306 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5184 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.30%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5400 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 6300 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Chile's Arauco announced May offers, with Yinxing at 740 dollars/ton and Jinxing at 620 dollars/ton, lower than the previous offers. In March, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 11.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to March was 4.1% year - on - year. In April, China's pulp imports were 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. As of May 22, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.2164 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. The downstream market has a clear demand for improved profitability, but terminal orders are limited, and raw material procurement is cautious [8] 4.2 Industry News - On May 23, Shandong Jiefeng Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. announced the launch of the "Intelligent Pulping and Papermaking Production Line Test Workshop" and "Intelligent Manufacturing Digital Production Workshop" construction projects. The projects are planned to start in August 2025 and be put into production in March 2026. Aiming to enhance efficiency, reduce energy consumption, and consolidate the company's leading position in the domestic pulping and papermaking machinery field, the new workshops focus on full - process intelligence, improving product design and processing accuracy, and promoting green production [9]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落，国产棉现货交投一般、主流基差坚挺；纯棉纱市场成交走谈，纺企库存出现累积但仍不高。国内棉花进口 延续偏低的情况, 2025年4月进口6万吨,同比降28万吨,环比降1.4万吨;2025年1-4月累计进口40万吨,同比降71%;2024/25 年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。目前看对于下游的订单好 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures contract 09 closed at 5300 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous settlement price. The new round of imported pulp offers are mainly lower, the port destocking speed is still slow, downstream paper mills have issued price increase notices to boost market confidence, but the raw material procurement mentality of paper mills is cautious, and the pulp may maintain a low - level range - bound adjustment in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 09 had a previous settlement price of 5328 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5300 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.53%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in Shandong wood pulp market was 5400 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Silver Star was 6300 yuan/ton. Arauco in Chile announced May offers: Silver Star at 740 US dollars/ton and Venus at 620 US dollars/ton, still lower than the previous offers. The shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in the world in March increased by 11.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to March was 4.1%. China's pulp imports in April were 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. As of May 22, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.2164 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. The downstream market has a clear demand for improved profitability, but the follow - up of terminal orders is limited, and the raw material procurement mentality is cautious [7]. 3.2. Industry News - On May 22, Shandong JinCailun Paper's PM18 was successfully started up. The new equipment will optimize the product structure and improve product quality. Hunan Zhengding Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. provided a complete set of air hood ventilation system and workshop ceiling air supply system for this project, which is technologically advanced and incorporates energy - saving and emission - reduction concepts [8]. 3.3. Data Overview - No specific data summary content provided other than indicating data sources such as Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [10][12][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Current macro - level positive factors have not been reflected in the demand for finished paper, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 23, 2025, SP2601 was 5316 with a daily increase of 0.08% and a weekly increase of 0.64%; SP2507 was 5464 with a daily increase of 0.70% and a weekly increase of 2.02%; SP2509 was 5338 with a daily increase of 0.41% and a weekly increase of 1.10% [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6250 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.79%; Knitted pulp was 5450 with no daily or weekly change; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4200 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.18% [1] - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's foreign quote was 740 dollars/ton (down 3.90% month - on - month), and its import cost was 6046 (down 3.87% month - on - month); Chilean Star's foreign quote was 560 dollars/ton (down 11.11% month - on - month), and its import cost was 4587 (down 11.00% month - on - month); Chilean Venus's foreign quote was 620 dollars/ton (down 4.62% month - on - month), and its import cost was 5073 (down 4.57% month - on - month) [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 75.8 tons (down 5.01% month - on - month), and broad - leaf pulp import volume was 119.9 tons (down 18.44% month - on - month) [1] - **Domestic Production**: On May 22, 2025, broad - leaf pulp domestic production was 20 tons, and chemimechanical pulp domestic production was 20.1 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, pulp port inventory was 215.7 tons (down 4.1 tons from the previous period, a 1.9% decrease), and delivery warehouse inventory was 26.10 tons [1] - **Finished Paper Production**: On May 22, 2025, double - offset paper production was 20.03 tons, coated paper production was 7.60 tons, tissue paper production was 27.60 tons, and white cardboard production was 28.30 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 23, 2025, Russian needle basis was - 14 with a quantile level of 0.673, and Silver Star basis was 786 with a quantile level of 0.961 [1] - **Import Profit**: On May 23, 2025, coniferous pulp Silver Star's import profit was 204 with a quantile level of 0.84, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish's import profit was - 387 with a quantile level of 0.236 [1] Summary - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco announced May 2025 wood pulp foreign quotes. Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 dollars/ton (down 30 dollars/ton), broad - leaf pulp Star had no supply in May and June and was expected to partially resume in July, and natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton (down 30 dollars/ton) [1] - **Demand**: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, and finished paper production remained stable [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, China's main pulp port sample inventory showed a de - stocking trend [1]

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年5月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 操作建议 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 4 资料来源：隆众资讯 1. 【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年5月22日，中国纸浆常熟港库存56.3万吨，较上周期上涨3.8万吨，环比上涨7.2%。本周常熟港库存呈现累库走势。 2. 【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年5月22日，中国青岛港港内港外仓库纸浆库存133.8万吨，较上周下降4.9万吨，环比下降3.5%。本周期青岛港库存周期内呈现去库 的走势。 3. 【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年5月22日，中国纸浆 ...

Core Insights - The Turkish maternal and infant market has seen significant growth in demand for paper packaging, driven by economic conditions, demographic changes, and market upgrades [1][3] - The demand for paper packaging is not only increasing in quantity but also in quality and innovation, influenced by consumer awareness of safety and environmental concerns [1][3] - Turkey's position as a member of the EU Customs Union allows its paper packaging products to enter the EU market tariff-free, enhancing its attractiveness for international brands [5] Demand Trends - The Turkish maternal and infant market's demand for paper packaging is influenced by a stable birth rate and heightened consumer focus on product safety, environmental sustainability, and functionality [1] - The Turkish government has implemented green packaging regulations, promoting the use of biodegradable or highly recyclable materials in maternal and infant product packaging [1][3] - There is a growing trend towards smart and personalized packaging solutions, incorporating features like anti-counterfeiting labels and interactive designs to cater to the high-end market [1][3] Supply Chain Dynamics - Turkey has developed a comprehensive paper packaging industry chain, including pulp supply, paper production, and packaging design and manufacturing [3] - Despite limited domestic pulp production, Turkey benefits from its geographical location, allowing stable imports of high-quality pulp from Europe, Russia, and Central Asia [3] - Leading Turkish paper packaging companies are enhancing production efficiency and product quality through technological upgrades, enabling them to compete with international brands [3] International Trade Impact - The EU Customs Union membership provides Turkish paper packaging products with zero-tariff access to the EU market, attracting international maternal and infant brands to establish production bases in Turkey [5] - Turkish maternal and infant brands are leveraging this geographical advantage to expand into overseas markets, contributing to a continuous increase in paper packaging exports [5] Future Outlook - The demand for paper packaging in Turkey's maternal and infant market is expected to continue growing, with a focus on the wider application of green packaging materials and increased R&D in biodegradable materials [7] - Smart packaging technologies are anticipated to penetrate the market further, enhancing product value and consumer interaction through IoT and big data [7] - Turkey is poised to become a key hub connecting the European and Asian maternal and infant packaging supply chains, enhancing regional market synergy [7] Industry Events - The third Paper Eurasia exhibition will take place in Istanbul from May 6-8, 2026, serving as a significant platform for industry leaders to showcase eco-friendly packaging solutions and smart production technologies [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [4][7][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term cotton prices are supported by positive market sentiment due to Sino - US negotiations, but the rebound space is limited by the off - season, high retained tariffs, and expected high yields in the new year [3][4] - For sugar, Zhengzhou sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The domestic sugar price is supported in the short term but faces upward pressure limitations from potential imports. Long - term sugar prices may decline if Brazil's high - yield expectations are met [7] - For pulp, although macro - sentiment improvement boosts pulp prices, the approaching off - season and weak terminal demand lead to a lack of industry drivers, and short - term pulp prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,440 yuan/ton yesterday, up 45 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,487 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,567 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. As of May 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.834 million tons, a decrease of 318,600 tons (-7.67%) from the end of April [2] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a strong oscillation yesterday. Macro: Sino - US negotiations made substantial progress, improving market sentiment, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high. International: USDA adjusted the 25/26 global cotton balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties. Domestic: The new - year cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, current inventories are decreasing, but it's the off - season and the impact of retained tariffs has not been fully reflected [3] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term price support comes from market sentiment, but the rebound space is limited [4] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5863 yuan/ton yesterday, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. As of May 19, Russia's beet planting area reached 1.1609 million hectares, with different progress and weather impacts in different regions [5] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price showed a strong performance yesterday. Raw sugar was first boosted by lower - than - expected production in Brazil's central - southern region but then pressured by expectations of global supply surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is supported by domestic sales data in the short term but faces import pressure in the long term [6][7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2507 contract was 5420 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian needles was 5440 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The import pulp market had different price trends [7][8] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price closed higher with oscillation yesterday. Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy and Sino - US negotiations affected market sentiment. Supply: The foreign quotation decreased, and the inventory was at a high level. Demand: European and domestic demand was weak, and the off - season is approaching [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Although macro - sentiment improves prices, the short - term price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation due to weak demand [8]