行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and OPEC's production and demand forecasts [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, with low - sulfur fuel oil supply remaining tight and high - sulfur fuel oil supported by demand [3]. - Asphalt is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints [3]. - Polyester products are expected to be volatile. PTA has a weak supply - demand situation and depends on cost changes; EG is under short - term price pressure [4]. - Rubber is expected to be weakly volatile, with supply increasing and demand weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [6]. - Methanol is expected to have increased volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to control risks [8]. - Polyolefins are expected to have increased price volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short - term [8]. - PVC is expected to be volatile. In the short - term, it is weak under the influence of the off - season, but the long - term multi - empty situation is changing [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices opened high and closed low. WTI July contract closed down $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% decline; Brent August contract closed down $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. SC2507 closed at 530.4 yuan/barrel, down 10.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in May averaged 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April. OPEC maintained its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecasts [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.38% to 3,276 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2508 rose 1.28% to 3,874 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.77% to 3,667 yuan/ton. It is expected that refinery复产 will drive a slight increase in production next week, but overall supply remains low. The demand in the north is relatively stable, while that in the south is weak due to rain [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.33% at 4,766 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.92% at 4,374 yuan/ton. Some Iranian MEG plants have stopped production, and some domestic polyester plants plan to reduce production [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 35 yuan/ton to 13,910 yuan/ton. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade warehouses increased, while that in the bonded area decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,585 yuan/ton. The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO device operation rate is high, and the port inventory increase will slow down. The price has rebounded rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton. Due to the high uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, short - term price volatility will increase, and the long - term fundamentals have not improved significantly [8]. - **PVC**: On Monday, the PVC market in East, North, and South China had slight adjustments. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term performance is weak [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and related changes of various energy - chemical products on June 17, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [11] 3.3 Market News - Iran has requested Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, and several European countries to urge President Trump to pressure Israel to achieve a cease - fire. Trump confirmed that Iran hopes to ease the conflict. OPEC expects the global economy to remain strong in the second half of this year and has lowered its forecast for the growth of oil supply from non - OPEC countries in 2026 [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and LPG from 2021 to 2025 [15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [73] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, achievements, and professional qualifications [79]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report Geopolitical disturbances have driven up the prices of upstream crude oil and methanol, providing cost support for the upward oscillation of LLDPE and PP futures. The LLDPE and PP futures markets showed an upward trend, with the LLDPE 2509 contract closing at 7,338 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan/ton (1.76%), and the PP main contract closing at 7,133 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton (1.15%). The PP futures' upward movement boosted the spot market, with some upstream petrochemical manufacturers raising their factory prices, strengthening the cost support for the supply. However, the supply-demand pattern has changed little, with reduced maintenance efforts and new capacity coming on stream, increasing supply pressure. The downstream agricultural film industry's operating rate has dropped to a relatively low level this year, and the packaging industry has low willingness to stockpile raw materials and finished products in the short term. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry is significantly lower than the same period in previous years. The continuous fermentation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East supports oil prices, and the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants has pushed up the price of MA. Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply-demand game, and are expected to operate warmly in the short term driven by cost support [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The LLDPE and PP futures contracts showed an upward trend. For example, the LLDPE 2509 contract opened at 7,266 yuan/ton, closed at 7,338 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 7,341 yuan/ton and a minimum of 7,219 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan/ton (1.76%), and the trading volume was 455,000 lots, with the open interest decreasing by 16,526 lots to 477,702 lots. The PP main contract opened at 7,103 yuan/ton, closed at 7,133 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton (1.15%), and the open interest increased by 4,247 lots to 460,472 lots [3][4]. - **Cost and Supply-Demand Analysis**: Geopolitical disturbances have driven up the prices of upstream crude oil and methanol, providing cost support for polyolefins. However, the supply-demand pattern is weak, with reduced maintenance efforts and new capacity coming on stream, increasing supply pressure. The downstream demand is also weak, with the agricultural film industry's operating rate dropping to a relatively low level this year, and the packaging industry having low willingness to stockpile raw materials and finished products in the short term [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory Level**: On June 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, up 15,000 tons (1.85%) from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The domestic PP North China drawn wire mainstream price was in the range of 7,070 - 7,250 yuan/ton, the East China drawn wire mainstream price was in the range of 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton, and the South China drawn wire mainstream price was in the range of 7,090 - 7,300 yuan/ton. The PE market prices continued to rise, with prices increasing in different regions and product types. For example, in the North China region, some linear PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, some high-pressure PE prices increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 200 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview The report includes various data charts and graphs, such as the L-PP price difference, the settlement price of the crude oil futures main contract, the inventory of two major oil companies, and the L and PP basis, etc. These data are sourced from Wind and Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - For each sub - sector, specific options strategies and suggestions are provided based on fundamental and market analysis of different underlying assets [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - Various energy and chemical option underlying futures are presented, including details such as the latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, and open interest. For example, crude oil (SC2508) has a latest price of 532, a change of 18, and a change rate of 3.50% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators (volume PCR and open - interest PCR) are analyzed for different option varieties. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points. For instance, the open - interest PCR of crude oil is 1.61 with a change of 0.39 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for different option underlying assets are determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 560 and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data (including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc.) are provided for each option variety. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 41.58% [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions - **Crude Oil Options** - Fundamental analysis shows that US employment data is weak and geopolitical conflicts have increased the geopolitical premium of oil prices. The market has a short - term bullish upward trend. - Option factors indicate high implied volatility, strong long - term bullish power, with a pressure level of 560 and a support level of 450. - Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for directional gains, a neutral short call + put option combination for time - value gains, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Options** - Fundamental factors such as rising crude oil prices and increased summer oil consumption have affected the LPG market. The market shows an oversold rebound. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the short - term bearish power is weakening, with a pressure level of 5200 and a support level of 4000. - Strategies include a neutral short call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Methanol Options** - Port inventory has increased, and the market shows a weak bearish oversold rebound. - Option factors indicate that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the bearish power above is weakening, with a pressure level of 2500 and a support level of 1975. - Strategies include a bullish call spread, a short call + put option combination with a long - biased delta, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options** - Port inventory is expected to increase, and the market shows a short - term bullish rise followed by a decline. - Option factors suggest high implied volatility, a range - bound and relatively strong market, with a pressure level of 4500 and a support level of 4300. - Strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Polyolefin Options (Polypropylene, etc.)** - Polypropylene downstream开工率 is low, and inventory levels vary. The market shows a rebound in a bearish trend. - Option factors indicate that implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 1.00, with a pressure level of 7500 and a support level of 6800. - Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Rubber Options** - Overseas production is not at a high level, and tire inventory is high. The market shows a bearish downward rebound. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, with a pressure level of 21000 and a support level of 13000. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short call + put option combination with a short - biased delta [12]. - **Polyester Options (PTA, etc.)** - PTA inventory shows a short - term slowdown in destocking. The market shows a high - level shock and decline. - Option factors indicate high implied volatility, a strengthening market, with a pressure level of 5000 and a support level of 3800. - Strategies include a neutral short call + put option combination [13]. - **Caustic Soda Options** - Production has decreased, and inventory has increased. The market shows a bearish downward trend. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility is below the average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, with a pressure level of 2520 and a support level of 2080. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short wide - straddle option combination, and a covered spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Soda Ash Options** - The spot market is weak, and the market shows a bearish low - level consolidation. - Option factors indicate that implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.50, with a pressure level of 1300 and a support level of 1100. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short call + put option combination with a short - biased delta, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Urea Options** - Inventory has increased, and prices have declined. The market shows an inverted "V" shape. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility is below the average, and the open - interest PCR is above 1.00, with a pressure level of 1900 and a support level of 1700. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short call + put option combination with a short - biased delta, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: After the previous profit repair, supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production, leading to a weakening supply - demand balance. However, short - term support is still strong due to the restart of PTA devices and new installations. PX09 is expected to fluctuate between 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: With the restart of previous maintenance devices and new installations, and the expansion of downstream polyester producers' production cut plans, the supply - demand balance is weakening. But considering the demand for PX and rising oil prices, the price has support at low levels. TA09 is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4900 yuan/ton [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: In June, the supply - demand structure is good, with limited import growth. Short - term demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 4200 - 4450 yuan/ton [2]. - Short - fiber: The supply and demand are both weak. The processing fee has been repaired recently, but the repair space is limited. PF08 is expected to run between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: In June, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound. The absolute price follows the cost [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP is bearish in the medium - term and can be used as a short - position allocation. PE has a weaker structure, and geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term rebound followed by short - selling. If oil prices fall, there will be more downward space [7]. Crude Oil Industry Oil price fluctuations are expected to increase due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. WTI's upper resistance is in the range of [79, 80] dollars/barrel, Brent's upper pressure is in the range of [80, 81] dollars/barrel, and SC's pressure level is in the range of [580, 595] yuan/barrel [10]. Urea Industry In the short - term, under high supply pressure, downstream demand has not yet connected well. The futures price may rebound due to the linkage of the energy - chemical sector, but the amplitude is limited by the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Methanol Industry Imports and inland logistics have jointly pushed up port inventories. In the short - term, the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. In the long - term, if Iranian supply is interrupted, it may push up the market sentiment, but downstream losses and high implicit inventories will restrict the spot price increase [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Recently, the supply has decreased, and the demand is under pressure. There may be inventory pressure risks in the short - term. The 7 - 9 positive spread should be exited. In the medium - term, the far - month contract is looking for a bottom [18]. - PVC: In the short - term, it shows a volatile trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the weak real - estate market. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [18]. Styrene Industry Crude oil price increases have driven up the downstream product prices. Pure benzene has upward potential, but high inventory may limit the upside. Styrene's supply and demand have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short - term, there is upward space, but there is medium - term fundamental pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: From June 12 to 13, prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.7%, and the price of WTI crude oil (July) increased by 6.8% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production. PTA's supply - demand balance is weakening, while ethylene glycol's supply - demand structure in June is good [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various sectors in the polyester industry have changed. For example, the PTA operating rate increased from 79.7% to 82.6% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot increased, and the price spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PP inventory is accumulating, and PE inventory is decreasing. The operating rates of PP and PE devices have increased [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 16, compared with June 13, prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the price spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand Concerns**: The market is worried about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues, and OPEC's actual spare capacity is lower than the theoretical value [10]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads of urea contracts have changed from June 12 to 13 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea supply is high, and downstream demand has not yet connected well [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the price spreads also changed [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Port inventory has increased significantly. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot changed, and the price spreads also changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply has decreased, and demand is under pressure. PVC's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not intensified, but there is long - term pressure [18]. Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures increased, and the price spreads changed [21][22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of styrene have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly [24].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices are rising, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins. The polyolefin futures market opened higher, but downstream buyers' willingness to purchase is weak. Upstream factory inventories and trader inventories are slowly being depleted. It is currently the maintenance season for petrochemical plants, with many planned maintenance units. Recently, several previously shut - down units are expected to resume operation, leading to an upward trend in supply and some supply pressure. The situation of Sino - US tariff negotiations has eased, propane prices have declined, and the cost support for PDH - made PP remains, with a slight increase in PDH - made PP production. It is the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand. The agricultural film production rate continues to decline, and the operation of other end - users is weakly fluctuating, with downstream purchasing based on rigid demand [2]. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7117元/吨（+15），PP主力合约收盘价为6969元/吨（+9），LL华北现货为7160元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7180元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7100元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为43元/吨（+15），LL华东基差为63元/吨（-15），PP华东基差为131元/吨（-9） [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.2%（+1.8%），PP开工率为78.6%（+1.6%）；PE油制生产利润为29.4元/吨（-158.0），PP油制生产利润为 - 290.6元/吨（-158.0），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 120.2元/吨（-2.9） [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific content is provided in the given text. IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 192.2元/吨（+110.4），PP进口利润为 - 401.8元/吨（+70.5），PP出口利润为12.7美元/吨（-3.4） [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（-0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.7%（-0.5%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.7%） [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream factory inventories and trader inventories are slowly being depleted [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bearish on plastics. - Inter - period: None [3]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价再现突破式反弹，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 3.17 美元 | | | | 至 68.15 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.90 美 | | | | 元至 69.77 美元/桶，涨幅 4.34%。SC2507 以 497.4 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 16.2 元/桶，涨幅为 3.37%。昨天凌晨突发，中东地缘动荡进一 | | | | 步加剧，油价凌晨大幅拉高。美媒称，美国防长下令美军家属可 | | | | 从中东各地自愿撤离。美国军方正在与国务院及其在该地区的盟 | | | | 友合作，"保持持续的战备状态"。EIA 数据，上周美国原油库存 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 下降，因炼油活动增加，推高汽油和馏分油库存。截至 6 月 6 日 | 偏强 | | | 当周，美国商业原油库存减少 360 万桶至 4.324 亿桶，此前市场 | | | | 预期为减少200万桶。当周俄克拉荷马州的库欣 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [8]. - Strategies suggest constructing option - combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy and chemical futures showed different price movements, volume changes, and open - interest changes. For example, crude oil (SC2508) had a latest price of 476, a rise of 1, and a volume of 2.69 million lots with a decrease of 0.52 million lots compared to the previous period [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - PCR indicators were used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points. For instance, the open - interest PCR of crude oil was 1.20, indicating an increase in the long - side strength [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels were determined from the strike prices of the maximum open - interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil was 570 and the support level was 400 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility was calculated using different methods. For example, the weighted implied volatility of crude oil was 28.09% with a decrease of 1.08% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Each Option Type - **Energy - related Options (Crude Oil)**: Based on fundamental and technical analysis, strategies included constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **LPG Options**: With a weak - bearish market, strategies involved constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Alcohol - related Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol)**: Strategies included constructing short - neutral or short - volatility option combination strategies and long - collar strategies for spot hedging [9][10]. - **Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, etc.)**: Strategies included constructing a bear - spread strategy for put options and long - collar strategies for spot hedging [10]. - **Rubber Options**: Strategies included constructing a bear - spread strategy for put options and a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Polyester - related Options (PTA, etc.)**: Strategies included constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash)**: Strategies included constructing bear - spread strategies for put options, short - bearish option combination strategies, and long - collar or covered - call strategies for spot hedging [13]. - **Urea Options**: Strategies included constructing a bear - spread strategy for put options, a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [14].