Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant downward revisions in its delivery forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum in the coming years [1][2][5]. Group 1: Tesla Delivery Forecasts - Wall Street predicts Tesla will deliver approximately 440,900 vehicles in Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11%, marking a continuous drop in deliveries for two consecutive years [1][2]. - The overall delivery forecast for Tesla in 2025 is estimated at 1.6408 million vehicles, down nearly 8% from 1.789 million in 2024, which would represent a significant decline after a slight decrease in 2024 [3][4]. - Analysts have drastically reduced their 2026 delivery expectations for Tesla from over 3 million to around 1.8 million vehicles, reflecting growing concerns about the company's short-term performance [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Tesla's Performance - The anticipated decline in Q4 2025 sales is attributed to the expiration of the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit in September, which previously incentivized purchases and led to a surge in Q3 sales, potentially depleting demand for Q4 [4]. - Tesla has publicly stated that it does not endorse any analyst information or conclusions, emphasizing the objective presentation of data [4]. Group 3: Tesla's Stock Performance - As of December 31, 2025, Tesla's stock has experienced a six-day consecutive decline, dropping over 1% on the last trading day, resulting in a cumulative retreat of approximately 8%, although the stock still saw an annual increase of about 11% [5]. - Tesla's current price-to-earnings ratio is nearing 300, which places significant pressure on the company to fulfill its promises regarding autonomous driving technology [5]. Group 4: SpaceX Developments - SpaceX announced plans to lower the operational altitude of approximately 4,400 Starlink satellites from about 550 kilometers to 480 kilometers to reduce collision risks and manage space debris [6][8]. - This adjustment is part of a major reorganization of the satellite constellation, aimed at creating a safer operational environment and is influenced by solar activity cycles that affect atmospheric density [8]. - The low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly congested, with projections indicating a 190% increase in the number of low Earth orbit satellites over the next decade [8].

另据特斯拉发布的分析师预测汇总数据，其销量预期更为悲观，预期特斯拉2025年第四季度交付量为 422850辆，同比下降15%。 2025年全年交付量方面，该份数据预计为164.08万辆，较2024年的178.9万辆下滑近8%。 若该预测成真，特斯拉将迎来连续第二年年度交付量下滑，且降幅显著扩大。2024年，特斯拉共计交付 178.92万辆，同比微降1.07%，这是十余年来特斯拉年度汽车交付量的首次下降。 对此，特斯拉明确表示，"不认可分析师的任何信息、建议或结论"，仅客观呈现汇总数据。 有分析指出，特斯拉2025年第四季度销量疲软主要归因于美国联邦电动车税收抵免政策于9月到期，该 政策此前可为购车者提供最高7500美元的优惠。抵免截止前的抢购潮推动第三季度销量激增，但也透支 了第四季度需求。 特斯拉突然传来利空信号。 据华尔街最新预测数据，预计特斯拉2025年第四季度交付约44.09万辆汽车，同比下降11%，特斯拉交 付量将连续两年遭遇下滑。另据彭博汇编的数据，华尔街分析师对特斯拉2026年的交付预期从超300万 辆大幅下调至约180万辆。 另外，马斯克旗下美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）也有重磅动作。北 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance on the first trading day of 2026, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 26,000 points, closing up 2.76% or 707.93 points at 26,338.47 points, with a total turnover of HKD 140.86 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4%, closing at 5,736.44 points, indicating a positive sentiment in technology stocks [1] Blue-Chip Stocks - Baidu Group-SW (09888) led blue-chip stocks, rising 9.35% to HKD 143.8, contributing 12.42 points to the Hang Seng Index, with a trading volume of HKD 4.778 billion [2] - Baidu announced plans to spin off Kunlun Chip for independent listing, with an estimated valuation of USD 16 billion to USD 23 billion, suggesting Baidu's stake could be valued between USD 9 billion to USD 13 billion [2] - Other notable blue-chip performers included New Oriental-S (09901) up 7.15%, China Life (02628) up 5.33%, and Tencent (00700) up 4.01% [2] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector saw a significant surge, with China Technology Group (01725) up 42.86% and Asia Pacific Satellite (01045) up 34.53% following the acceptance of Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application [3] - Semiconductor stocks also performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) up 9.42% and SMIC (00981) up 5.11%, driven by industry trends and acquisitions [4] - The robotics sector continued its upward trend, with notable gains from companies like Lijiang Technology (00558) and Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) [4] Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a new policy for large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, expected to boost domestic appliance consumption [7] - Companies in the home appliance sector, such as Skyworth Group (00751) and Midea Group (00300), saw significant stock price increases, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the new policy [6][7] Notable Stock Movements - Wall Street's first trading day of 2026 saw significant movements, with Biran Technology (06082) debuting at a 75.82% increase, focusing on GPGPU chips for AI computing [7] - Meitu Company (01357) issued USD 250 million convertible bonds to Alibaba, which will make Alibaba the third-largest shareholder, indicating a strategic partnership [8] - Likin Resources (02245) received approval for its A-share IPO, reflecting confidence in its comprehensive industry chain in nickel trading and production [9]

Core Viewpoint - China Technology Group (01725) has seen a significant stock price increase of approximately 22.86%, reaching HKD 0.86, following the announcement of a strategic cooperation memorandum with Meizhou High-tech Zone to establish a zero-carbon aerospace industrial and energy storage manufacturing center [1] Group 1: Company Developments - On December 29, China Technology Group signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Meizhou High-tech Zone to build a zero-carbon aerospace industrial and energy storage manufacturing center [1] - The company is transitioning from a single satellite industry to a comprehensive industrial group that integrates aerospace, energy storage, and precision manufacturing, leveraging aerospace-grade technology [1] - The company has initiated a series of strategic collaborations and industry acquisitions, including the establishment of a 4 billion yuan industrial fund with Qingtou Private Equity Fund and signing strategic cooperation agreements with Quanzhou Zhongke Xingqiao Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Yuehua Telecommunications Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Market Context - The global energy storage market is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan, with China's new energy storage installations projected to surpass 100 gigawatts, indicating a significant industry trend [1]

蓝箭航天招股书显示，金风科技旗下江瀚资产持有蓝箭航天4.14%股权，为该公司第六大股东。天眼查 显示，江瀚资产100%隶属于金风投资控股有限公司，后者为金风科技全资子公司。 责任编辑：王珂 2026年1月2日，金风科技H股（02208）持续走高，截至发稿，该股涨20.58%，报16.17港元/股。 港股恒生科技指数午后持续走强，截至发稿涨4%。恒生指数涨2.65%，电力设备、零售、游戏软件、半 导体、军工股等涨幅居前。华虹半导体涨超10%，百度集团涨超9%，网易涨超6%。 消息面上，2025年12月31日晚间，上交所官网显示，蓝箭航天空间科技股份有限公司科创板IPO审核状 态变更为"已受理"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jinpeng Technology (02208) experienced a significant stock increase of over 4%, closing at 14 HKD with a trading volume of 1.3412 million HKD, following the news of Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO acceptance on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, marking a milestone for commercial rocket companies in China [1] Group 1: Company Information - Jinpeng Technology holds an 8.3% stake in Blue Arrow Aerospace, which is currently in a loss-making state but is pursuing an IPO under the fifth set of standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - Blue Arrow Aerospace, established in 2015, is one of the first private commercial rocket companies in China and successfully launched its Zhuque-2 rocket, becoming the world's first liquid methane rocket to reach orbit [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The acceptance of Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application signifies the expansion of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's fifth set of listing standards to include the commercial aerospace sector [1] - The Zhuque-3 rocket is scheduled to complete its first flight test phase from October 18 to 20, 2025, indicating ongoing advancements in China's commercial space industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Xi Jinping's New Year message emphasizes China's commitment to modernization and global cooperation, aiming to inspire confidence and hope for shared development among nations [1][2][3] Group 1: Achievements and Development - The New Year message reflects on the achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and sets the tone for continued progress in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - China's development is characterized by both speed and warmth, enhancing the quality of life for its citizens [2] - The message highlights China's stability and resilience in the face of complex international challenges, underscoring the importance of long-term development goals [3] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - China is recognized as one of the fastest-growing economies in terms of innovation, driven by significant investments in education, research, and technology [5] - The country has made breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, 5G, and aerospace technology, positioning itself as a key player in global technological advancement [5] - The successful launch of the Tianwen-2 mission showcases China's growing capabilities in complex space exploration tasks [5] Group 3: Cultural Influence - Chinese culture is experiencing a revival, with modern expressions of traditional aesthetics gaining global popularity, as seen in films and games [6] - The message reflects a strong cultural confidence, indicating China's ability to blend tradition with contemporary creativity [6] Group 4: Global Cooperation and Governance - China continues to embrace global cooperation, as evidenced by hosting significant international summits and initiatives aimed at addressing climate change [7][9] - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to enhance economic ties with various countries, particularly in Central Asia [7] - The message conveys China's commitment to sustainable development and global governance reform, aiming to create a better ecological environment for all [7][9]

转自：贵州日报 新年前夕，国家主席习近平发表二〇二六年新年贺词。多国人士在接受新华社记者采访时表示，习近平 主席的新年贺词回顾"十四五"期间中国式现代化建设的辉煌成就，矢志在"十五五"开局之年续写中国奇 迹新篇章，展现中国敞开胸怀拥抱世界、同各国人民共创共享美好生活的坚定决心和大国风范，在变乱 交织的国际形势中传递促进全球共同发展的信心与希望。他们期待同中方一道，秉持命运与共理念，携 手共创更加美好的未来。 "中国的发展有速度，更有温度" "2025年是习近平主席以坚定战略定力和深厚人民情怀，引领中国稳步推进中国式现代化的重要一年， 中国发展扎实推进，经济社会等各领域成就辉煌。"泰国泰中"一带一路"研究中心主任威伦·披差翁帕迪 通过互联网直播聆听习近平主席的新年贺词后说。 "从科技创新到文化建设，从区域协调到社会治理，中国的发展有速度，更有温度，体现在老百姓生活 水平的提升上。"威伦说，"正如习近平主席在新年贺词中所说，'人民群众获得感幸福感安全感不断增 强'。" "读完习近平主席的新年贺词，我深刻感受到习近平主席始终把人民放在心中、念兹在兹的情怀。"总部 设于伊拉克埃尔比勒的全球文明倡议研究中心主席卡瓦·马 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent failures of China's new rockets, Zhuque-3 and Chang Zheng-12A, in achieving successful recovery, yet highlights a paradoxical surge in the aerospace sector, particularly in commercial space stocks, indicating a rational revaluation of value under new rules and clear expectations [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite the failures of rocket recovery, the aerospace sector, especially commercial space stocks, experienced significant price increases, with some stocks doubling in a matter of days [6]. - The market is not irrationally reacting; rather, it is undergoing a rational revaluation based on a new understanding of "engineering iteration certainty" [7][10]. - The introduction of commercial space and private capital has shifted the traditional failure-averse culture to a "rapid trial and error" approach, allowing for faster technological iterations [12]. Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The focus should shift from the success or failure of rocket recovery to the thousands of components that make up a rocket, revealing a broader picture of the industry's supply chain [17]. - The reusable rocket technology leads to increased demand for high-end manufacturing components, creating a "continuous consumption demand" for the aerospace supply chain [20]. - The dual validation from both state-owned and private companies pursuing similar technological goals provides a "technical path insurance" for supply chain enterprises [21]. Group 3: IPO and Market Opportunities - The release of guidelines by the Shanghai Stock Exchange for commercial rocket companies to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has created a clear path for capital market participation [24][25]. - The new listing criteria focus on successful payload delivery to orbit rather than recovery, encouraging investment in companies that demonstrate strong launch capabilities [26]. - The market is actively seeking and trading stocks related to leading commercial space companies, indicating a preemptive investment strategy in the emerging aerospace ecosystem [28]. Group 4: Data Utilization and Industry Growth - The commercial space sector has made failure data transparent and marketable, turning each failed attempt into a valuable resource for industry learning and advancement [30]. - The accumulation of failure data is seen as a unique advantage for China's commercial space industry, allowing for rapid engineering experience accumulation [31]. - The current enthusiasm in the market reflects a collective bet on the potential for significant cost reductions in space access, driven by China's robust industrial capabilities [36].

星标★IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 港交所IPO募资额夺冠的欢庆烟火散去，A股和美股IPO复苏回暖的前戏刚刚落幕，投资者们已来到了2026年，更加精彩的IPO大戏正式开演。 各核心市场的政策红利继续释放，人工智能（AI）、半导体、卫星互联网等硬科技核心赛道吸引力持续加码；少数几家超级独角兽在2025年完成热身， 身价倍增，为2026年全球IPO市场的爆发写下伏笔；超级独角兽的上市潮涌来，或首选在中国香港与美国市场登陆；A股大型IPO将以半导体、AI大模型、 消费电子龙头为主。 2026年全球IPO募资总额能刷新2021年5940亿美元巅峰数值吗？哪家交易所能夺得募资冠军？全球IPO募资王会是哪家企业？ 融资将创新高 展望2026年，多家投行对2025年的全球冠军港交所给出了乐观预测。 国际投行德勤预测，港交所2026年大约有160只新股上市，最少募集3000亿港元（约380亿美元），募资总额续创新高，其中包括大约7只融资额达百亿港 元的大型新股。 国际投行毕马威认为，港交所预计上市新股在180—200家范围内，融资额约为3500亿港元（约450亿美元），A+H与特专科技将主导其IPO市场。 国际投行瑞银预 ...