分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 | | 就业市场持续降温，中美关税博弈增加 | | --- | --- | | | > 就业市场持续降温,通胀符合预期 | | | ◆ 劳动力市场持续降温。美国8月非农就业仪增2.2万人、远低于预期及7月修正值（7.9万）。6月数据下修至减少1.3万、失业率升 | | 海外宏观 | 至4.3%,反映劳动力市场压力加剧。美国8月0P1同比上涨2.9%,环比上涨0.4%,显示出通胀温和回升的态势。 | | | > 中美近期关税博弈增加 | | | ◆ 美国总统特朗普10月10日在社交媒体威胁从11月1日起对华加征100%关税。其背后有两方面原因:一来、随着美联储进入降息周期 | | | 特朗普认为具备了更多应对潜在经济冲击的政策底气:二来,当前突陈关税税率未达其预期,也为其继续加码创造了条件。 | | | ◆ 考虑到全面实施100%关税将在执行层面面临巨大阻力,该政策最终完全落地的可能性有限。 | | | 经济运行承压,政策加码可能性上升,关注中 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the **A-share market** and various **industries** including **technology**, **pharmaceuticals**, **military**, **insurance**, and **consumer goods**. Core Points and Arguments Market Trends and Economic Outlook - The A-share market has seen a cumulative increase of over **20%** since late June, with main sectors performing even better, although there is a need to be cautious of profit-taking and potential risks [1][5] - The domestic capacity cycle is approaching a turning point, and combined with anti-involution policies, there is an expectation of upward profit elasticity from year-end to next year [1][5] - The overall funding environment remains positive, with a shift of household savings towards equity markets due to low deposit rates and low returns from real estate investments [5] Sector-Specific Insights - The **pan-technology sector** is entering an earnings disclosure period in October, facing pressure from price-performance ratios [3][4] - The **AI industry** is experiencing accelerated trends, benefiting certain segments despite a decline in the overseas computing supply chain's component performance [3][8] - The **pharmaceutical industry** is showing signs of recovery, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices, with a **45%** year-on-year increase in global pharmaceutical investment in Q3 [9][10] - The **military and aerospace sectors** have shown significant improvement in data, with notable increases in revenue for key companies [9] - The **insurance sector** has seen a rebound in premium income and stable growth in property insurance, with investment returns performing well since September 2024 [10] Consumer Goods Recovery - The recovery in consumer goods is gradual, with improvements noted in essential and mass consumer products such as dairy, dining condiments, and beauty care [7] - The retail price of milk has turned positive year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in the consumer goods sector [7] Investment Recommendations - Suggested investment strategies include diversifying portfolios while focusing on sectors with strong performance potential such as **AI**, **semiconductors**, **upstream materials**, and **communication equipment** [5][11] - Caution is advised regarding the uncertainties stemming from US-China trade tensions, with recommendations to hold gold as a neutral option and consider low-beta dividend stocks for more cautious strategies [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **TMT sector** has shown a slight decline in sentiment over the past three months, but strong demand persists in certain areas like communication equipment and data centers [3][8] - The **engineering machinery** and **building materials** sectors are showing signs of recovery, with notable increases in sales data during traditionally slow months [6] - The overall industry and non-financial industry sentiment indices have declined, but there are still strong upward trends in specific sectors like AI and resource materials [6]

Overall Introduction - The book introduces market rules, asset allocation logic, and strategies for different asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, while addressing practical issues faced by investors [4]. Core Views - The book proposes three dimensions to assess the market: policy, economy, and inflation, which are used to determine market conditions [7]. - Economic cycles are divided into six stages, each with corresponding asset preferences, ranging from bonds in the early slowdown to cash and commodities in the stagflation phase [11][12][13][39]. - Effective asset allocation strategies include the Permanent Portfolio, All Weather Portfolio, and Global Market Portfolio, emphasizing diversification and risk management [14][15][16]. Current Situation - Current policies are characterized as accommodative, with indicators such as M1 growth increasing from 0.39% in January to 5.96% in August [33]. - Economic recovery is weak, with industrial value-added growth declining from 7.7% to 5.2% [37]. - The market is likely in a transition between the late slowdown phase and the early recovery phase, suggesting a preference for small-cap growth stocks [39][40]. Investment Insights - Long-term asset allocation is crucial for sustained success, with diversified strategies proven to provide stable returns [44]. - A balanced stock-bond allocation is suitable for most investors, allowing for flexibility in extreme market conditions [45]. - Simplifying investment approaches and focusing on fundamental market principles can lead to better outcomes [47][48].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the long-term trend of a slow bull market in A-shares remains unchanged, despite short-term pressures from trade tensions [1][8] - The report highlights that the structural recovery of A-share profits and potential credit recovery are key factors supporting the slow bull trend [8][13] - Short-term adjustments in A-shares are viewed as opportunities for low-position layouts, with limited adjustment pressure on the fundamentals [13][20] Group 2 - The report discusses the reasons behind the current round of US-China tariff tensions, including China's restrictions on rare earth exports and the ongoing negotiation dynamics [7][8] - It notes that the potential imposition of additional tariffs by the US may serve as a countermeasure against China's export controls on rare earths, reflecting a strategic negotiation tactic [7][8] - The report emphasizes that the impact of tariffs on exports is expected to be less severe than in previous instances, due to an optimized export structure and resilient domestic consumption and investment [13][20] Group 3 - The industry allocation analysis suggests a balanced style in the short term, while the technology sector remains favored in the medium to long term [15][20] - The report indicates that sectors such as large finance, rare earths, agriculture, and innovative pharmaceuticals may perform relatively well in the short term due to their defensive attributes [20][22] - It also highlights that the technology sector, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence and robotics, continues to receive policy support and is expected to maintain a favorable position in the long term [16][22]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to enter a phase of wide fluctuations in the short term due to high valuations and cautious capital, alongside uncertainties in US-China relations [1] Market Conditions - Recent market increases have led to relatively high valuations, causing some capital to be cautious [1] - Uncertainties in US-China relations may lead to a decline in market risk appetite [1] Policy and Economic Factors - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is likely to raise market policy expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve still has room for interest rate cuts within the year, which may support the market [1] Sector Focus - In the short term, the focus should be on high-dividend and consumer sectors [1] - In the medium term, attention should shift to TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors [1]

Core Insights - Shandong Jinling Mining Co., Ltd. and Guangdong Daoshi Technology Co., Ltd. reported significant growth in their Q3 2025 financial results, with Jinling Mining's revenue increasing by 12.98% and net profit by 47.09%, while Daoshi Technology's net profit surged by 182.45% [1] - A number of listed companies have issued Q3 performance forecasts, with some expecting net profit increases exceeding 100%, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, new energy, and high-end manufacturing, aligning with national industrial policy [2] - The overall profitability of various industries is expected to improve, with the manufacturing sector showing a 7.4% year-on-year profit growth from January to August, supported by strong performance in equipment manufacturing and other sectors [3] Industry Performance - The majority of industries are projected to see a rebound in profitability, bolstering market confidence, as indicated by the low base effect from the previous year [4] - Key sectors anticipated to show improved or sustained high growth in Q3 include mid-to-high-end manufacturing, the AI industry chain, and certain resource products benefiting from supply-demand improvements and price increases [5] - Specific industries such as non-ferrous metals, TMT (telecommunications, media, and technology), and electric power equipment are expected to report relatively high year-on-year profit growth in Q3 [6] Market Dynamics - The earnings-driven approach is becoming the main focus for capital allocation as the market enters the Q3 reporting period, with company performance likely to drive market trends [7] - Companies with significant profit growth, such as Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co., Ltd., are attracting investor interest, with projected net profit growth of 131.39% to 145.38% for the first three quarters [7] - Investors are advised to focus on metrics such as profit improvement, cash flow quality, and capacity utilization when evaluating Q3 reports, as companies exceeding profit expectations may gain more market attention [8]

Group 1 - The three major indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3915.48 points, down 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13633.19 points, down 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index at 3230.46 points, down 0.96% [1] - Zhongyuan Securities anticipates that the Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a more accommodative global liquidity environment, which may enhance domestic monetary policy flexibility and boost market risk appetite [1] - The crowded midstream manufacturing sector may increase short-term market volatility risks, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy between growth and value styles [1] Group 2 - CICC indicates that the market has shown strong structural characteristics, with hotspots concentrated in growth sectors [2] - The strong demand for overseas AI computing power and China's clear energy transition goals are expected to drive structural opportunities in the stock market, with manufacturing upgrades being a long-term trend [2] - Recommended sectors for October include AI computing and robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, power grid equipment, and the livestock and feed industries [2]

Group 1 - The overall manufacturing PMI is still affected by external unfavorable conditions, but policies promoting "anti-involution" and the service sector have shown positive effects, leading to improved corporate confidence [1] - As external trade shocks gradually dissipate, the policy tone of expanding domestic demand and its actual effectiveness will be further reflected in the data [1] - The market expects the central bank to introduce further easing measures, which may boost market risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Recent market performance shows strong structural characteristics, with hotspots concentrated in growth sectors [2] - The strong demand for overseas AI computing power continues to be validated, and China's clear energy transition goals position it as a manufacturing powerhouse participating in technological innovation [2] - Recommendations for October include focusing on AI computing and robotics-related industries, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, and non-ferrous metals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market risk appetite continued to recover in September, with the current All A ERP below the rolling 5-year average, indicating a potential for further market improvement [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The overall performance of high dividend sectors weakened, with internal valuation differentiation increasing due to the influence of the banking sector [1] - "Anti-involution" related cyclical high dividend stocks performed relatively well this month, while banks and non-bank financials showed weakness [1] Group 2: Outlook for October - The trend of market risk appetite recovery is expected to continue into October, with TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors likely to outperform high dividend sectors due to favorable fundamental factors [1] - It is recommended to focus on "anti-involution" related cyclical high dividend stocks and some potential high dividend stocks in the investment strategy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven narrative to one driven by earnings, with the market expected to face increased macro constraints in the fourth quarter of 2025 [4][8][63] - In the third quarter of 2025, the A-share market strengthened significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3882.78, reflecting a quarterly increase of 12.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 29.3% [15][4] - The TMT sector was a major contributor to the index's rise, with notable increases in electronic, communication, and media sectors, which rose by 47.6%, 48.6%, and 20.3% respectively [16][4] Group 2 - Domestic economic growth momentum has slowed, with GDP growth in the third quarter expected to be around 4.8%, influenced by factors such as declining export growth and adjustments in the real estate market [5][29] - The report anticipates that the policy support for economic growth will strengthen, with measures including loan interest subsidies and early issuance of local government debt limits [5][39] - A-share earnings are stabilizing, with overall earnings growth expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth in 2025, supported by enhanced policy measures and resilient exports [7][41] Group 3 - The influx of incremental capital is expected to continue supporting the A-share market, driven by improved investor confidence and favorable economic conditions [48][7] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is set to provide new guidance for the capital market, focusing on industrial development, economic structure adjustments, and fiscal reforms [53][56] - The report suggests that investment strategies should focus on structural opportunities, particularly those related to the "15th Five-Year Plan," core asset value reassessment, and various thematic opportunities [66][66]