Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment sentiment surrounding the Chinese stock market as the Lunar New Year approaches, highlighting a historical tendency for the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) to rise during this period, leading to a prevailing recommendation for investors to "hold stocks" over the holiday [1][3]. Market Performance Analysis - Over the past decade, the SSE has recorded an increase in 7 out of 10 years during the 5 trading days before the Lunar New Year, and 6 out of 10 years on the day before the holiday [1][2]. - Recent market trends show the SSE rebounding above 4100 points after a strong rally at the end of 2025, with significant gains observed on February 9, 2026, where the SSE rose over 1% [2]. Institutional Outlook - Multiple brokerage firms express optimism regarding the market's performance around the Lunar New Year, with a consensus on the "hold stocks" strategy based on historical trends and current economic conditions [3]. - China Galaxy Securities identifies two main reasons for a favorable market outlook: ongoing supportive policies since September 2024 aimed at enhancing investor confidence and liquidity support from various financial factors [3]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The overall A-share index price-to-book (PB) ratio has decreased to 1.90, placing it at the 54.40th percentile historically, indicating a return to median valuation levels [4]. - Earnings forecasts for 2026 suggest a shift where profitability may become the focal point for market attention, with structural improvements noted in sectors such as technology manufacturing and cyclical industries benefiting from price increases [4]. Sector Performance Insights - Historical data indicates that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, automotive, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and electric equipment have performed well before the holiday, while sectors like environmental protection, electronics, media, and agriculture are expected to excel post-holiday [4].

2月9日，市场高开高走，沪指涨超1%，深成指涨超2%。截至收盘，沪指涨1.41%，深成指涨2.17%，创业板指涨2.98%。沪深两市成交额2.25万亿，较上一 个交易日放量1038亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4600只个股上涨。从板块来看，AI应用端持续拉升，引力传媒、荣信文化、中文在线、海看 股份、掌阅科技、欢瑞世纪涨停。化工板块反复活跃，闰土股份2连板，红太阳、华尔泰、海翔药业、亚邦股份涨停。光伏概念表现活跃，协鑫集成4连板， TCL中环4天2板。算力硬件概念集体走强，天孚通信触及20CM涨停创历史新高。商业航天概念走高，中超控股、顶固集创、杭萧钢构涨停。下跌方面，油 气股走势较弱，通源石油、潜能恒信震荡下挫。 今日全市场（不含ST股、退市股）共83股涨停，连板股总数14只，26股封板未遂，封板率为76%。焦点股方面，AI应用概念股名雕股份7天6板，影视股横 店影视8天6板，化工股百川股份9天6板，并购重组的韩建河山5连板、凯龙高科20CM4连板。 一、板块异动 二、涨跌停温度 三、涨跌家数 四、涨停揭秘 | | | | 金融界股灵通复盘(2.9) | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

证券日报网讯2月9日，思美传媒（002712）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月30日公 司股东总户数为30060户。 ...

中新社北京2月9日电 (记者陈康亮)中国A股9日(周一)放量上涨，主要股指悉数飘红。板块方面，文化传 媒板块涨幅居前，表现亮眼。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 公开资料显示，已有8部影片定档2026年中国内地春节档。十多年来，中国内地春节档票房节节攀升， 2025年春节档在《哪吒之魔童闹海》的带动下，创下超95亿元(人民币，下同)的档期票房新高。2026 年，春节假期长达9天，这个"史上最长春节档"被认为将为电影票房冲高提供更充裕的时间窗口。 就当天A股主要指数的表现而言，截至收盘，上证指数报4123点，涨幅为1.41%；深证成指报14208点， 涨幅为2.17%；创业板指报3332点，涨2.98%。沪深两市成交总额约22495亿元，较上一个交易日放量约 1038亿元。(完) 根据金融数据服务商东方财富的统计，文化传媒板块当天上涨4.79%，领涨A股所有行业板块。个股方 面，荣信文化、中文在线、海看股份、捷成股份股价收获涨停板(涨幅约20%)。 太平洋证券分析师郑磊表示，在即将到来的春节假期，中国文化传媒行业曝光度有望提升。人工智能方 面，中国国产大模型迎来密集迭代期，商业化进一步发力，阿里巴巴、腾讯等互联网大厂 ...

盘面上，CPO概念全天强势，天孚通信大涨股价创历史新高；AI应用概念午后持续拉升，中文在 线、三六零等多股涨停。此外，商业航天、影视院线、光伏设备、短剧游戏、BC电池、半导体等概念 涨幅居前，油气开采、燃气、可燃冰等板块小幅下跌。 编辑：何颖曦 中国经济周刊-经济网讯 截至收盘，上证指数报4123.09点，涨幅1.41%，成交额9497.26亿元；深证 成指报14208.44点，涨幅2.17%，成交额12997.47亿元；创业板指报3332.77点，涨幅2.98%，成交额 6392.92亿元。 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by over 1.4% and surpassing 4100 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by over 2%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by nearly 3% [1][7] - Market trading volume increased compared to the previous Friday, indicating heightened investor activity [1][10] Government Policy and Economic Measures - The State Council held a meeting on February 6 to discuss policies for promoting effective investment, emphasizing the importance of investment in stabilizing economic growth and enhancing development momentum [2][8] - The meeting highlighted the need to innovate and improve policy measures, utilizing central budget investments, long-term special bonds, and local government bonds to support key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [2][8] - This signals an acceleration of investments related to national strategies and the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to bolster macroeconomic stability and provide support for sectors like infrastructure construction, building materials, and major equipment [2][8] Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of the end of January, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $339.91 billion, an increase of $41.2 billion or 1.23% from December 2025 [2][9] - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 74.19 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces, marking the 15th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2][9] - The rise in foreign reserves reflects a stable international balance of payments and enhanced resilience against external shocks, providing a solid foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][9] Regulatory Developments - On February 6, the People's Bank of China and eight other departments issued a notice to further prevent and manage risks associated with virtual currencies, categorizing related activities as illegal financial activities [3][9] - This regulatory upgrade aims to control the financial operations of virtual currencies domestically and isolate risks from traditional financial systems, facilitating the promotion and application of digital currencies [3][9] Market Performance - On February 9, the A-share market indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4123.09 points (up 1.41%), the Shenzhen Component Index at 14208.44 points (up 2.17%), and the ChiNext Index at 3332.77 points (up 2.98%) [4][10] - All sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index experienced gains, with telecommunications, comprehensive, and media sectors leading the increases [4][10] Trading Volume and Margin Data - The market turnover reached 22,703.66 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day [6][11] - The margin trading balance reported on the previous Friday was 26,636.60 billion yuan, showing a decline from the previous trading day [6][11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Mainline Model (Relative Strength Index, RSI) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies leading industries by calculating their relative strength (RS) based on historical price performance. Industries with RS > 90% are considered potential market leaders [13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use 31 first-level industry indices as the configuration targets [13] 2. Calculate the price change percentages over the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days for each industry [13] 3. Rank the industries based on their price changes for each period and normalize the rankings to obtain RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 [13] 4. Compute the average of the three rankings to derive the final RS index: $ RS = (RS_{20} + RS_{40} + RS_{60}) / 3 $ [13] 5. Industries with RS > 90% before the end of April are identified as potential leaders for the year [13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identified leading industries in 2024, such as coal, utilities, home appliances, banks, oil and gas, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and automobiles. These industries aligned with the market's main themes, including high dividends, resources, exports, and AI [13] 2. Model Name: Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: This framework provides two right-side industry rotation strategies based on market sentiment, trend, and crowding levels [17] 1. High Sentiment + Strong Trend, avoiding high crowding (aggressive and synchronized with the market) [17] 2. Strong Trend + Low Crowding, avoiding low sentiment (trend-following and user-friendly) [17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use sentiment as the core metric, combined with trend and crowding levels, to identify industries with strong potential [17] 2. Historical backtesting results show the model's annualized return and risk metrics [17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance, with an annualized return of 22.0%, an annualized excess return of 13.4%, an IR of 1.5, and a maximum drawdown of -8.0%. The monthly win rate is 67% [17] 3. Model Name: Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries in a recovery phase from distress or inventory pressure, aiming to capture turnaround opportunities during restocking cycles [27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Focus on industries with current or past distress but showing signs of recovery [27] 2. Evaluate long-term analyst sentiment and inventory pressure to identify industries with restocking potential [27] 3. Historical backtesting results show the model's performance metrics [27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown strong historical performance, with absolute returns of 13.4% in 2023, 26.5% in 2024, and 28.7% in 2025. The excess returns relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks were 17.0%, 15.4%, and 5.6%, respectively [27] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Mainline Model (RSI) - **2024**: Industries with RS > 90% included coal, utilities, home appliances, banks, oil and gas, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and automobiles. These industries aligned with the year's main themes [13] - **2025**: 17 industries showed RS > 90%, including TMT, banks, manufacturing, and some consumer sectors [13] - **2026 (up to February 6)**: 7 industries showed RS > 90%, including media, building materials, oil and gas, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, defense, and telecommunications [14] 2. Industry Sentiment-Trend-Crowding Framework - **Annualized Return**: 22.0% [17] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 13.4% [17] - **IR**: 1.5 [17] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -8.0% [17] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 67% [17] - **January 2026 Performance**: Absolute return of 6.5%, excess return of 0.7% [17] 3. Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **2023**: Absolute return of 13.4%, excess return of 17.0% [27] - **2024**: Absolute return of 26.5%, excess return of 15.4% [27] - **2025**: Absolute return of 28.7%, excess return of 5.6% [27] - **January 2026**: Absolute return of 10.4%, excess return of 4.8% [27]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries have both declined, indicating a decrease in inflation expectations [1][15] - Offshore US dollar liquidity has marginally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose. The term spread (10Y-1Y) has narrowed [1][22] Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity has decreased, with most indices experiencing an increase in volatility. Sectors such as media, communication, retail, military, and building materials have trading heat above the 90th percentile [2][30] - The volatility of most indices has increased, with military, petrochemical, and non-ferrous metal sectors reaching above the 80th percentile [2][32] Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, new energy, military, and computer sectors have seen high research activity. The research intensity in new energy, military, media, food and beverage, and utilities sectors has continued to rise [3][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to raise net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased [4][50] - Specific sectors such as non-ferrous metals, retail, communication, pharmaceuticals, and machinery have also seen upward adjustments in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [4][21] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index and the SSE 50 have been raised for 2026/2027, while the forecasts for the CSI 500 and CSI 300 have been adjusted differently [4][23] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to net sell A-shares, but the magnitude of selling has slowed. In the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio in sectors like communication, food and beverage, and machinery has increased [5][31] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, there has been a net buying in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, while net selling has occurred in TMT, pharmaceuticals, and military sectors [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to decline, reaching the lowest point since July 2025. Last week, there was a net sell of 51.596 billion yuan across various sectors, with electronics, non-ferrous metals, communication, and chemicals being sold off the most [6][35] - Only the communication and non-bank financial sectors saw an increase in the proportion of financing purchases [6][38] Active Equity Funds and ETFs - Active equity funds have continued to increase their positions, particularly in non-ferrous metals, media, and steel sectors, while reducing positions in finance, food and beverage, and new energy sectors [8][45] - The correlation of active equity funds with large/mid/small-cap value has increased, while the correlation with growth has decreased [8][48] - New equity fund establishment has decreased, with both active and passive funds seeing a decline in scale. ETFs have seen renewed net subscriptions, primarily driven by individual investors [8][50]

剩余流动性趋缓背景下，大盘股将跑赢小盘股；全年维度看，科技+顺周期仍是配置主线。对投资者而言，当前时点应把握中长线配置机会，重新审视"成 长"的定义边界。 调整到位信号明确，微观流动性冲击快速出清 市场经历了一轮猛烈但短暂的调整。据华创数据，宽基ETF今年以来累计净流出1.02万亿元，杠杆资金过去5个交易日净流出582亿元，创下去年4月以来新 高。贵金属价格暴跌引发有色金属板块回吐涨幅，叠加监管层上调融资保证金比例释放降温信号，市场风险偏好受到明显抑制。 市场短期剧烈调整后，配置窗口已经打开。在牛市背景下，微观流动性冲击已出清，关注顺周期与地产链的困境反转。 据追风交易台，华创证券2月8日发布的策略周报显示，本轮回撤或已到位——2月2日跌停公司达130家创新高，杠杆资金5日净流出582亿元，市场温度回落 至去年11月水平。 更关键的是投资风格正在发生深刻变化：成长股将优于价值股，但成长机会不再局限于科创板块，顺周期和地产链的困境反转同样值得关注； 但多个指标显示调整已经充分。从投资者情绪看，上证指数在4000点附近的市场温度已接近去年11月的3800点水平；2月2日跌停公司达130家，超过去年11 月21日的 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all experienced gains today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.41% to close at 4123.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.17% to 14208.44 points, the Sci-Tech 50 up by 2.51% to 1458.16 points, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 2.98% to 3332.77 points [1][10] - Overall, 4609 stocks rose while 756 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 22495 billion yuan, an increase of 1038 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - All primary industries in the Shenwan classification saw gains today, with notable increases in the telecommunications, comprehensive, media, electronics, and computer sectors, which rose by 5.17%, 4.70%, 3.50%, 2.97%, and 2.88% respectively [1][10] - Conversely, the oil and petrochemical, banking, and food and beverage sectors had lower gains, with increases of only 0.21%, 0.36%, and 0.37% respectively [1][10] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included optical modules (CPO), perovskite batteries, optical communications, short drama games, cultivated diamonds, optical chips, Kimi, virtual humans, BC batteries, rare earths, photovoltaic glass, Chinese corpus, multimodal models, AIGC, and WEB3.0 [2]