Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a shift from broad-based gains to structural depth, with a clear focus on two main lines: resource sectors and technology [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.31%, while the ChiNext Index saw a slight decline, indicating a "strong Shanghai, weak Shenzhen" market dynamic [1] - The leading sectors include oil and petrochemicals, national defense, and electronics, while utilities, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors are declining [1] Group 2: Drivers of Nonferrous Metals - Global liquidity expectations are influencing resource pricing, with the U.S. CPI data reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, benefiting precious metals like gold and silver, as well as copper [2] - The structural reshaping of demand in the new energy sector is providing a growth narrative for traditional industrial metals, with copper being termed the "electrification metal" and aluminum as the "lightweight metal" [2] - The rigid constraints of supply and demand fundamentals are a foundational element for price increases, particularly evident in silver, which has faced a significant supply shortage for five consecutive years [2] - Geopolitical risks and domestic policies are acting as dual catalysts, enhancing the safe-haven value of precious metals while supportive fiscal policies in China provide a potential recovery space for industrial metal demand [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The active nonferrous metals sector is not isolated but aligns with the strong performance of the technology growth sector, indicating two major investment strategies: "buy inflation/revaluation" (resources) and "buy growth/future" (technology) [3] - The upcoming cross-year market is expected to present more structural opportunities than index-based ones, with a focus on identifying where the opportunities lie [3] - Key areas to watch include nonferrous metals with tight supply-demand dynamics (copper, silver), hard technology sectors on the brink of domestic production and new technologies (semiconductor equipment, AI applications), and high-end equipment manufacturing capable of international expansion and upgrades [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yian Technology has shown significant stock performance, with a year-to-date increase of 134.92% and a recent trading volume indicating active market interest [1] - As of December 29, Yian Technology's stock price reached 17.29 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 11.937 billion yuan [1] - The company has experienced a net inflow of main funds amounting to 579,600 yuan, with large orders contributing significantly to the buying activity [1] Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, Yian Technology reported a revenue of 1.164 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.75%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 343,000 yuan, down 86.02% year-on-year [2] - The number of shareholders increased by 33.81% to 57,200, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 25.19% to 12,016 shares [2] - Since its A-share listing, Yian Technology has distributed a total of 158 million yuan in dividends, with 2.0713 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]

资料显示，中国有色金属建设股份有限公司位于北京市朝阳区安定路10号中国有色大厦，成立日期1983 年9月16日，上市日期1997年4月16日，公司主营业务涉及以有色金属采选与冶炼、国际工程承包等。主 营业务收入构成为：承包工程58.50%，有色金属38.03%，冶金机械2.62%，其他0.84%。 中色股份所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铅锌。所属概念板块包括：国资改革、央企改革、稀土 永磁、一带一路、中盘等。 截至12月19日，中色股份股东户数11.96万，较上期减少0.81%；人均流通股16527股，较上期增加 0.82%。2025年1月-9月，中色股份实现营业收入69.31亿元，同比减少0.21%；归母净利润4.81亿元，同 比增长42.84%。 12月29日，中色股份盘中上涨2.15%，截至10:35，报6.64元/股，成交2.48亿元，换手率1.91%，总市值 132.17亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1383.02万元，特大单买入2204.08万元，占比8.90%，卖出1148.59万 元，占比4.64%；大单买入5463.17万元，占比22.07%，卖出5135.64万元，占比20.7 ...

12月29日，万顺新材盘中上涨2.05%，截至10:14，报5.96元/股，成交6056.19万元，换手率1.42%，总市 值53.51亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出562.49万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出103.19万元，占比 1.70%；大单买入1081.02万元，占比17.85%，卖出1540.32万元，占比25.43%。 万顺新材今年以来股价涨23.91%，近5个交易日涨3.83%，近20日跌0.67%，近60日跌0.33%。 今年以来万顺新材已经2次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为2月10日。 万顺新材所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铝。所属概念板块包括：铝塑膜、低价、钠电池、 DeepSeek概念、固态电池等。 截至12月19日，万顺新材股东户数3.73万，较上期减少1.56%；人均流通股19455股，较上期增加 1.59%。2025年1月-9月，万顺新材实现营业收入40.90亿元，同比减少13.86%；归母净利润-8708.01万 元，同比减少140.53%。 分红方面，万顺新材A股上市后累计派现4.34亿元。近三年，累计派现5332.71万元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 ...

洛阳钼业所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铜。所属概念板块包括：铌概念、黄金股、有色铜、钴 镍、稀缺资源等。 截至9月30日，洛阳钼业股东户数30.42万，较上期增加28.08%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。 2025年1月-9月，洛阳钼业实现营业收入1454.85亿元，同比减少5.99%；归母净利润142.80亿元，同比增 长72.61%。 洛阳钼业今年以来股价涨202.49%，近5个交易日涨3.92%，近20日涨11.91%，近60日涨40.22%。 今年以来洛阳钼业已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为10月9日。 资料显示，洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司位于河南省洛阳市栾川县城东新区画眉山路伊河以北，成立 日期1999年12月22日，上市日期2012年10月9日，公司主营业务涉及主要从事钼、钨及黄金等稀贵金属 的开采、选冶、深加工、贸易、科研等。生产所需原辅材料、机械设备、仪器仪表、零配件的进口(上 述进出口项目凭资格证书经营)。金属贸易。主营业务收入构成为：精炼金属产品贸易48.56%，精矿产 品贸易38.31%，铜27.14%，钴6.04%，钼3.12%，磷2.23%，铌1.88%，钨 ...

Macro Overview - Precious metals such as gold and silver continue to reach new highs, while the RMB exchange rate has broken the 7 mark [2] - Major global stock markets saw increases, with the Nikkei 225 up 2.5% and the S&P 500 up 1.4% [3] - Commodity prices generally rose, with COMEX copper increasing by 6.7% and London gold rising by 4.4% [3] Economic Indicators - The US economy showed strong growth in Q3, with GDP increasing by 2.33% year-on-year and 4.30% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Industrial output in the US exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.29% in November [4] - In Europe, crude steel production fell to 102 million tons in November, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year [4] Policy Developments - The US has postponed additional tariffs on Chinese semiconductors to stabilize trade relations [5] - Japan plans to introduce a record initial budget of 122.3 trillion yen [5] - The French National Assembly passed a temporary budget to ensure government operations [5] Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and reach new heights, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points [7] - Emerging technologies are anticipated to be the main investment focus, while cyclical finance may emerge as a dark horse [7] - The capital market in China is seen as a crucial element in gathering social capital and confidence, marking a significant shift from previous years [8] Investment Trends - The breaking of the "guaranteed return" system in China is leading to a decline in risk-free asset yields, with long-term rates expected to drop below 2% [9] - The demand for asset management is projected to surge as the market adapts to new conditions [9] - Structural transformation in industries is reducing uncertainty in economic development, providing clearer investment signals [10] Industrial Metals Insights - Industrial metals are experiencing price increases, with silver prices rising due to ongoing inventory disruptions [13] - Copper supply remains fragile, with long-term processing fees set at $0 per ton, indicating a potential for strong copper prices [14] - The lithium market is facing demand weakness, but prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions [15] Aerospace and Defense Sector - The release of listing standards for commercial rocket companies is expected to accelerate capital operations in the aerospace sector [18] - The Chinese government emphasizes the development of commercial aerospace as a key component of national strategy [19] - New listing criteria focus on technological advantages and market potential, which may enhance the growth of commercial rocket enterprises [20]

- The report introduces a timing system that uses the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the WIND All A Index to determine market trends. The short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, with a distance of 3.38%, which is significantly greater than 3%, indicating the market has returned to an upward trend[2][6][11] - The "profitability effect" is used as a core indicator to assess market conditions. The current market trend line is at 6237 points, and the profitability effect is 3.12%, which is significantly positive, suggesting the upward trend is likely to continue[5][7][11] - The "Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model" signals a focus on retail, tourism, and other service-oriented consumption sectors[5][7][11] - The "TWO BETA Model" continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on domestic computing power and commercial aerospace[5][7][11] - The "Industry Trend Model" indicates that sectors such as communication, industrial metals, and energy storage are maintaining an upward trend[5][7][11] - The valuation metrics for the WIND All A Index show that the PE ratio is at the 85th percentile, indicating a relatively high level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[5][7][11] - Based on the "Position Management Model," the report suggests an 80% equity allocation for absolute return products using the WIND All A Index as the primary stock allocation benchmark[5][7][11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index, characterized by an "eight consecutive days of gains," indicates a spring market rally, but there is a lack of consensus on the leading sectors for this rally [1][20] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is experiencing high sector rotation intensity, suggesting that funds have not yet formed a clear consensus on the leading sectors [1][20] - The improvement in micro liquidity since late November has prompted a market layout period, although future market performance may not be consistently strong and could experience fluctuations [3][22] - The significant net inflow into the A500 ETF, amounting to 48.17 billion, has improved the micro liquidity environment and ignited bullish sentiment in the market [5][24] Group 2: Price Increase Opportunities - Three categories of price increase opportunities have been identified: 1. High demand and supply mismatch, particularly in the AI industry chain (e.g., storage, copper-clad laminate, semiconductor manufacturing) and energy storage chain (e.g., lithium iron phosphate, separators, lithium carbonate) [1][32] 2. Stable demand with supply disruptions, mainly in industrial metals (copper/aluminum), fertilizers, and some minor metals (e.g., cobalt, tin) [2][34] 3. Cost increases leading to price adjustments, primarily in chemicals (e.g., titanium dioxide, MDI), photovoltaics (modules, silicon wafers), and certain midstream manufacturing sectors [2][35] Group 3: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include insurance, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, computing power, semiconductor equipment, aviation, new energy, and machinery [3][22] - Specific themes of interest are robotics, autonomous driving, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to drive future market performance [3][22]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 有色金属 反内卷与逼仓情绪升温，铜价创历史新高 贵金属：长期宽松预期不变，金银再创新高。周内美国 2025 年三季度实际 GDP 环比折年率 初值 4.3%，大幅高于预期值 3.3%和前值 3.8%；实际 GDP 同比 2.3%，高于前值 2.1%和 2000 年至今的均值 2.2%。三季度 PCE 通胀、核心 PCE 通胀环比折年率分别为 2.8%、2.9%， 高于前值 2.1%、2.6%。若将净出口、存货变化、政府支出剔除，则三季度美国实际 GDP 环 比折年率为 2.6%，略高于二季度的 2.5%和 2022 年以来的均值 2.3%。与 GDP 增长形成反 差的在就业市场，11 月 ADP 就业人数仅-3.2 万人，季调后非农就业 6.4 万人，两项数据均 显示美国就业市场仍处于疲软状态，我们认为美联储仍有降息的必要性，流动性宽松预期仍 然利好金银价格上涨。此外，白银现货租赁利率在今年 10 月一度超过 35%，近期仍维持在 6%左右的高位，远高于正常融资成本，也反映出实物白银出借意愿极低，现货市场供应紧 张，本周白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant gains, leading the market with a net inflow of 14.7 billion yuan, indicating strong investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector was the top performer on December 26, with a net inflow of 14.7 billion yuan, the highest among 31 primary industries [1][10]. - The popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal (159876), saw an intraday increase of 4.19%, closing with a 3.77% gain, marking its highest closing since inception [1][10]. - The Huabao ETF has attracted a total of 56.11 million yuan over the past two days, reflecting positive sentiment towards the non-ferrous metal sector [1][10]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Key stocks such as Yongxing Materials, Guocheng Mining, and Jiangxi Copper reached their daily limit, while Zhongkuang Resources and China Aluminum rose over 8% [3][12]. - Major stocks like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum hit historical highs, indicating strong performance within the sector [3][12]. Group 3: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - The non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a price surge, with gold reaching a record high of $4,561.6 per ounce, copper at $5.7855 per pound, and lithium carbonate surpassing 130,000 yuan per ton [5][15]. - The current market rally is attributed to improved fundamentals, liquidity, and investor sentiment, with four main factors driving the strength of the non-ferrous metals: increased geopolitical uncertainty, a weakening dollar, rising demand due to AI and energy transitions, and supply constraints [5][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry analysts predict that non-ferrous metals will be in the "first tier" of upward trends in 2026, with expectations for gold prices to challenge $5,000 per ounce and copper prices to continue rising [6][16]. - The Huabao ETF, covering a range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, is recommended for investors seeking to diversify risk across the sector [7][17].