Core Viewpoint - The rising value of trendy toys and IP toys is highlighted by the recent auction of LABUBU for 1.08 million yuan, leading to a surge in related stocks and showcasing the vibrant growth of China's toy industry [1][2]. Industry Developments - Dongguan and Shantou, two major toy production bases in Guangdong, are actively planning for the future, reflecting the robust vitality of the Chinese toy industry [1][3]. - Dongguan's Shipaizhen hosted the "Trendy Toy Industry Ecosystem Partnership Conference," emphasizing the city's commitment to becoming a hub for trendy toy businesses and expanding global markets [1][4]. - Shantou's Chenghai district held the "AI Toy Industry Innovation and Development Conference," focusing on the integration of AI technology into traditional toy manufacturing for transformation and upgrading [1][4]. Corporate Actions - Companies like Shifeng Culture in Chenghai have partnered with Baidu Smart Cloud to launch AI toy production plans, aiming for intelligent, personalized, and educational enhancements in toy manufacturing [2][6]. - Dongguan's trendy toy enterprises are seeking deeper cultural recognition to enhance the cultural value of their products, facilitating the global expansion of "Chinese trendy toys" [2][3]. Market Trends - The AI toy market is rapidly expanding, with projections indicating it could reach a market size of $36.377 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in IoT and AI technologies [6]. - The shift in consumer behavior from basic needs to emotional value is evident, with consumers willing to pay for products that offer emotional satisfaction [7]. - The Chinese IP toy market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 75.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 11.7% from 2020 to 2024 [8].

大家好，我是海豚君！ 上周策略周报中，海豚君说了美股当下价位下，美股到三季度结束，整体大概率是在鸡肋行情和下跌风险之间徘徊，上周美股确实也以跌为主，那么弱美元叙事 逻辑下： 1) 美股是不是就此就进入下跌区间？ 2）近期港股火热的结构性行情是为什么？到底有没有持续性？ 海豚君本篇策略周报就重点来探讨这个问题。 一、关税收入落袋，物价反噬还没到 五月已经算是特朗普关税开始有完整影响的一个月，但5月数据表现从几个核心结果上来看，表现还不错： a. 关税收入落袋，赤字不算夸张 5月美国联邦财政收入中，关税月收入进一步飙升到了从4月环比翻倍到160亿的基础上拉高到了220亿美金，对外的关税收入已经开始落袋到财政收入当中。 同时由于后续持续的关税暂停政策，恐怕5月的220亿关税基本上一个峰值了 。在特朗普关税2.0之前，美国联邦财政关税月收入基本徘徊在50-80亿美金之间。 这样个税、企业所得税和关税收入共同增加的推动下，美国联邦财政收入比去年多进账了480亿美金；支出除了社保支出逐月高增100亿美金（主要因25年1月5日 由拜登签署生效的《社会保障公平法》取消了此前限制约300万退休公共部门人员及其家属领取社会保障福 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, with a total net buy of HKD 57.43 billion on June 16, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks while others faced net sell-offs [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Meituan-W (03690) and China Construction Bank (00939) were among the top net buyers, with net inflows of HKD 11.61 billion and HKD 15.23 billion respectively [2][5]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced the highest net sell-off, amounting to HKD 18.79 billion, while Tencent (00700) also saw significant selling pressure with a net outflow of HKD 6.19 billion [2][7]. - Other notable stocks with net inflows included ZHONGAN Online (06060) with HKD 2.15 billion and KANGFANG BIO (09926) with HKD 2.05 billion [5][6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Insights - The report from Goldman Sachs highlighted a recovery in the investment value of Chinese private enterprises, identifying ten major companies that reflect themes in AI, technology development, and new consumption, with a combined market capitalization of USD 1.6 trillion [4]. - The banking sector, particularly China Construction Bank, is experiencing increased interest from insurance funds, which is seen as a positive signal for market sentiment [5]. - The digital asset sector is also gaining traction, with ZHONGAN Online's involvement in stablecoin services indicating a growing focus on digital finance in Hong Kong [6]. Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Xiaomi's chairman Lei Jun announced the upcoming launch of the Xiaomi YU7, while the company aims to achieve profitability in its automotive and chip businesses by Q3-Q4 of this year [7]. - Bubble Mart (09992) is gaining recognition for its unique IP and product development capabilities, which are expected to drive long-term growth [6].

Group 1 - The digital live broadcast by Luo Yonghao on Baidu e-commerce attracted over 13 million viewers, achieving a GMV exceeding 55 million yuan, setting a new record for digital live streaming sales [2] - The live broadcast utilized AI knowledge base 13,000 times, generating 97,000 words of product explanation content, and the digital hosts performed over 8,300 actions [2] Group 2 - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun announced the upcoming release of the Xiaomi YU7 at the end of June, along with other significant new products, including the Xiaomi Pad 7S Pro featuring the Xuanjie O1 chip [3] Group 3 - Pop Mart Korea announced the temporary suspension of offline sales for the LABUBU series products due to potential safety concerns at sales venues, prioritizing customer safety and service quality [4] Group 4 - Baidu launched its largest-scale AI talent recruitment plan, AIDU Plan, with a 60% increase in job openings covering 23 core business areas and 11 research directions, including large model algorithms and machine learning [5] Group 5 - Jiyue Automobile reported that after-sales component issues have been largely resolved and announced a partnership with Lynk & Co for after-sales support, with plans to offer an OTA upgrade for intelligent driving assistance in the second half of 2025 [6]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasized the need to promote the construction of "good houses" and integrate it into urban renewal mechanisms, providing policy support in planning, land, finance, and other areas to stabilize the real estate market [4][5] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 182 days [4] - The CSRC released new regulations for algorithmic trading in the futures market to enhance monitoring and risk management [4] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated 80 billion yuan for urban renewal projects, benefiting approximately 1.7 million people [5] - A series of adjustments to A-share indices took effect on June 16, including major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [5][6] - Shenzhen is expected to pilot a secondary listing for red-chip stocks, providing a more efficient listing channel for tech companies [6] Group 3 - Global markets experienced significant volatility on June 13 due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with major indices in the US and Europe declining [7] - The Israeli airstrikes have resulted in significant casualties in Iran, further heightening regional tensions [7] Group 4 - GAC Group committed to ensuring the completion of dealer rebates within two months [10] - Kweichow Moutai adjusted its 2024 profit distribution plan, increasing the dividend to 27.673 yuan per share [10] - *ST Guandao faces potential delisting due to financial fraud, with trading suspended for one day [10] Group 5 - Huatai Securities reported that the conflict between Israel and Iran has led to increased oil price volatility [14] - CITIC Securities noted that new models of real estate development will more effectively address structural supply-demand mismatches [15] - The computer industry is expected to maintain a positive trend, with a focus on AI applications and smart vehicles [17]

Group 1 - The State Council has deployed new measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks [2] - Central and local governments will coordinate policies to implement targeted measures for the real estate market [2] Group 2 - In May, non-bank deposits in China reached a nearly ten-year high, with a monthly increase of nearly 1.2 trillion yuan, reflecting significant changes in fund flows [4] - The total RMB deposit balance reached 316.96 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [4] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a surge, with nine out of the top ten actively managed equity funds being healthcare-themed, highlighting a significant shift in fund performance rankings [5] - The top-performing fund, Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Select A, achieved a return of 103.67% [5] Group 4 - The Hang Seng AH Premium Index has dropped to its lowest level in five years, with a decline of over 10% year-to-date [6] - As of June 13, 42 companies still have an AH premium rate exceeding 100%, while some companies are showing a discount of H-shares compared to A-shares [6] Group 5 - The Shenzhen pilot program for red-chip companies to list in Hong Kong has garnered attention, with expectations for enhanced investor confidence in China's capital market [7] - The policy aims to facilitate financial collaboration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [7] Group 6 - The trend of companies issuing "suspension warnings" is increasing, allowing investors to reassess their investment decisions [8] - This proactive approach provides a buffer period for investors to evaluate potential risks [8] Group 7 - The announcement of a three-year cumulative return for pension funds aligns with the trend of long-term investment assessments [9] - This new metric is intended to guide pension management institutions towards long-term investment strategies [9] Group 8 - Dongshan Precision plans to acquire Source Photonics for up to 59.35 billion yuan, marking a strategic move into the optical communication sector [13][14] - The acquisition will be executed through a combination of equity purchase and convertible bond subscription [13][14] Group 9 - Bozhong Precision announced a high acquisition premium of 352% for a 70% stake in Shanghai Wodian, aiming to enter the automotive intelligent equipment market [15]

Group 1: Aviation Incidents - The Indian government has promised to release an investigation report on a recent plane crash that resulted in 279 fatalities within three months [2] - A significant poisoning incident in Shandong, China, led to 7 deaths and 4 injuries, with 26 individuals held accountable for safety violations [3][4] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Pop Mart has temporarily suspended the offline sales of its LABUBU plush toys in South Korea due to safety concerns [9][10] - Ant Group is entering the Hong Kong stablecoin market, joining other major players like JD.com and Standard Chartered in seeking licenses for stablecoin issuance [12][13] Group 3: Technology and Innovation - AMD announced details about its next-generation AI chip, the Instinct MI400 series, which will be available next year and is designed for large-scale AI computing [14][15] - Apple confirmed that a small number of its M2 Mac Mini devices may fail to boot, offering free repairs for affected units [16][17] Group 4: Financial Regulations - New regulations for algorithmic trading in the futures market have been introduced, emphasizing the need for enhanced monitoring and risk management [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting investment focus from traditional consumer stocks like Kweichow Moutai to emerging brands like Pop Mart, highlighting the performance and strategies of fund manager Hu Xinwei and the challenges faced by his fund management company, Huitianfu [3][5][15]. Group 1: Investment Performance - Hu Xinwei's management of the Huitianfu Consumption Industry Mixed Fund saw a significant decline, with the fund's net value dropping from a peak of 9.977 yuan to 4.591 yuan, representing a decline of over 50% [5][7]. - In contrast, Hu's other fund, Huitianfu Consumption Upgrade, achieved approximately 20% returns this year due to a strategic shift away from Moutai and increased investment in Pop Mart [5][8]. - Huitianfu's overall revenue for 2024 was 4.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.12%, while net profit was 1.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.33% [5][13]. Group 2: Fund Management Challenges - Huitianfu has seen a decline in its industry ranking, dropping to 9th place, primarily due to a focus on cost-cutting and efficiency improvements [5][13]. - The company has faced criticism for the disparity in performance among its funds, raising concerns about fair treatment of investors [5][11]. - The article notes a talent gap within Huitianfu, with several star fund managers struggling to maintain performance, leading to a loss of investor confidence [11][14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Position - Hu Xinwei's investment strategy has evolved to include a focus on dividend yield, indicating a shift in evaluation standards for consumer leaders [8][9]. - The article categorizes fund managers into four types based on their investment styles, with Hu being labeled as a "trend follower" for his aggressive investment in Pop Mart [10][12]. - Huitianfu's product lineup has been criticized for being overly concentrated in certain sectors, missing opportunities in emerging industries like new energy and semiconductors [13][14].

Macro News - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [5] - The narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, growing by 2.3% year-on-year, while the currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, up by 12.1% [5] - In the first five months, the net cash injection was 306.4 billion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 1.863 trillion yuan, which is 383 billion yuan more than the same period last year [6] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments are soliciting opinions on the "Automotive Data Export Security Guidelines (2025 Edition)," which requires data exporters to report data export security assessments under certain conditions [8] - Shenzhen is expected to pilot the secondary listing of red-chip stocks, with relevant listing rules being formulated to provide a more efficient listing channel for innovative enterprises [8] - As of June 14, 105 public fund products have been liquidated this year, with 70% of the liquidated products being equity funds, particularly in the new energy, pharmaceutical, and consumer sectors [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued an administrative penalty decision against a trader for manipulating stock prices, with fines totaling nearly 77 million yuan [9] Company News - Kweichow Moutai announced an adjustment to its 2024 annual profit distribution plan, increasing the dividend per share to 27.673 yuan [10] - On June 14, Pop Mart announced the temporary suspension of offline sales of its LABUBU plush toys and keychains in South Korea due to safety concerns [10] - GAC Group committed to ensuring the completion of dealer rebate payments within two months [10] - Guotai Junan announced the issuance of 15 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds, which received approval from the People's Bank of China [10] - ST Tongzhou announced that its stock will be suspended for one day on June 16 and will resume trading on June 17 with the removal of delisting risk warnings [10]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company: 布鲁可 (Bruker) Key Industry Insights - **IP Sales Distribution**: The sales distribution of key IPs remains stable, with 奥特曼 (Ultraman) accounting for 40%-50%, 变形金刚 (Transformers) at around 20%, and 假面骑士 (Kamen Rider) and 英雄无限 (Hero Unlimited) each at approximately 10% [1][2] - **Product Lifecycle Management**: 奥特曼 is extending its product lifecycle with the launch of series 14 to 17 and has high-end figurines in reserve [1][2] - **New Product Launches**: 布鲁可 is expanding its product offerings with new IPs and products targeting different demographics, including adult-oriented products like 初音未来 (Hatsune Miku) and EVA, priced at 169元, which have shown strong sales [1][3] Core Business Strategies - **Sales Growth**: The brand's sales in April and May 2025 nearly doubled year-on-year, attributed to a faster pace of new product launches and a significant increase in channel outlets [2][3] - **Channel Expansion**: Plans to expand terminal outlets to 250,000-300,000, representing over 50% growth year-on-year, with a focus on KA channels [1][5] - **Inventory Management**: Terminal inventory is healthy, with approximately 45 days of stock, and lower inventory in circulation channels [5] International Market Development - **Overseas Sales Growth**: In Q1 2025, 布鲁可's overseas sales exceeded the total for the previous year, with a month-on-month increase in April. Southeast Asia contributes 60% of overseas sales, while Europe and the US account for 40% [6] - **Market Penetration**: The brand is gradually expanding in Southeast Asia and has entered major North American retailers like Walmart and Costco, indicating significant growth potential in international markets [6] Upcoming Product Plans - **New IP Launches**: Upcoming products include 三丽鸥 (Sanrio), 王者荣耀 (Honor of Kings), and movie IPs such as 哈利波特 (Harry Potter), 星战 (Star Wars), and 侏罗纪公园 (Jurassic Park) [5] - **Focus on Key Sales Periods**: The company will closely monitor sales data during June and the summer, which are critical for annual performance and may influence stock trading strategies [3][8] Additional Insights - **Consumer Demographics**: Adult-oriented products have outperformed female-oriented products, with 宝可梦 (Pokémon) showing better feedback in its second release compared to the first, while marketing strategies have significantly impacted the performance of 名侦探柯南 (Detective Conan) [4][3]