Core Insights - The economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 is expected to decline compared to the first half, with a focus on structural adjustments in policy, which is a consensus in the market. Despite this, A-shares maintain strength due to stable capital market expectations, the establishment of a "buffer" against macro disturbances, and the connection between short-term economic highlights and mid-term supply-demand improvements [2][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Outlook and Market Resilience - The stable capital market policy has created a "buffer" for A-shares against macro disturbances, leading to a widely accepted expectation that the downside risks are controllable [3][6]. - The anti-involution policy has established a connection between short-term economic highlights and mid-term supply-demand improvements, facilitating a smoother transition in the "long-term view, short-term action" market trend [2][7]. - The verification of technological prosperity and the results of US-China trade negotiations have reinforced the shift from value to growth in the short term [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Future Projections - By Q4 2025, market conditions are expected to become more favorable for upward breakthroughs, with fundamental expectations shifting towards 2026, potentially accelerating the reflection of supply-demand improvements [8][10]. - The net profit growth rate for A-shares is anticipated to rebound in 2026, with a low base in Q4 2025 leading to favorable conditions for early reversal expectations [8][10]. - The peak of resident deposit repricing in 2025 presents a critical window for asset reallocation, which may lead to natural increments in certain asset classes that have limited dependence on stock market performance [10][11]. Group 3: Sectoral Insights and Investment Recommendations - The anti-involution investment strategy is expected to favor undervalued cyclical stocks in the short term, while mid-term focus should be on midstream manufacturing that resonates with supply clearing and anti-involution policies [10][11]. - The verification of economic prosperity in Q2 2025 and the results of US-China negotiations support recommendations for A-share computing power industry and leading internet stocks in Hong Kong [10][11]. - Continued strategic optimism for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in internet leaders, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend stocks [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Pacific Securities is that there are three main lines in the market, with various sectors showing signs of recovery, particularly in areas like photovoltaic, pig farming, and glass, which are at historical lows and present opportunities for active participation [3] - The second main line involves sectors undergoing significant industrial transitions, such as solid-state batteries and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - The third main line focuses on high-dividend sectors, particularly coal, which benefits from anti-involution policies, and energy sectors supported by oil prices remaining above $40, alongside banks and insurance benefiting from changes in fund inflows [3] Group 2 - According to Caixin Securities, the A-share market is expected to operate with a strong oscillation trend, transitioning from a "weight-based" to a "theme-based" market, with structural opportunities emerging [4][5] - The macroeconomic environment shows no significant negative factors before August, indicating a new bullish window, with improved investor sentiment and incoming funds providing upward momentum for indices [5] - The implementation of anti-involution policies could alleviate the "increasing revenue without increasing profit" dilemma for companies, potentially leading to a new phase of market growth [5] Group 3 - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes that the technology growth sector remains a long-term mainstay in the market, driven by policy support and industrial upgrades, with areas like AI computing, robotics, and semiconductors showing long-term development potential [6] - The recommendation is to focus on high-performing value stocks within the technology sector, targeting high-growth sub-sectors while managing overall risk [7]

Group 1 - The AI computing power sector experienced a strong surge on July 15, with several actively managed equity funds seeing significant net value increases, outperforming related ETF products [1][2] - Fund manager Zhou Jiansheng's Nord New Life A achieved a net value growth rate of 9.42%, the highest in the market, while other funds managed by Jin Zicai also reported growth rates above 8% [2][3] - The rapid growth in the optical communication and PCB sectors over the past two years is attributed to the expansion of global customer demand and the long-term positive outlook for the AI industry, suggesting that Chinese manufacturers are likely to continue benefiting from global AI development [1][6] Group 2 - The active equity funds led the gains in the AI computing power sector, with notable performances from funds managed by Zhou Jiansheng, Jin Zicai, and Ren Jie, all reporting net value growth rates above 8% [2][3] - The ETF market also showed strong performance, with the Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF leading in trading volume, surpassing 35 billion yuan in consecutive trading days [4] - Fund inflows have been strong, with the Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF seeing nearly 10 billion yuan in net inflows on July 15, and cumulative inflows close to 50 billion yuan for July [4] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the demand for AI computing power is expected to remain high, as leading companies in the sector have reported better-than-expected financial results [5][6] - The AI industry is witnessing a continuous breakthrough in cognitive boundaries, with significant capital investments from tech giants and a substantial increase in AI cluster scale [6][7] - The market is currently reassessing the value of the AI computing power sector, with a focus on Chinese companies that possess global competitiveness [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points for the first time in over three years, driven by positive fundamentals and market sentiment [3][4][7]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3509.68 points on July 10, marking a 0.48% increase, and continued to rise to 3519.54 points by July 14, with significant trading volumes recorded [3][4]. - The trading volume in the A-share market has increased significantly, with daily volumes reaching 1.71 trillion yuan, the highest in nearly four months [3][4]. - Key sectors such as banking, AI, and photovoltaic have shown remarkable performance, with the photovoltaic glass sector rising by 11.29% since the beginning of July [3][4]. Key Themes - The two main themes currently influencing the A-share market are mid-year performance reports and the "anti-involution" policy [6][7]. - Over 600 A-share companies have reported positive earnings forecasts, accounting for more than 40% of the total disclosures [7]. - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive a potential V-shaped recovery in company earnings, with analysts suggesting that the market may soon shift its focus from sentiment to fundamentals [8][9]. Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend focusing on companies with strong mid-year performance reports and those positioned to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies [7][8]. - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with analysts indicating that any short-term adjustments could present good buying opportunities [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - CoreWeave plans to invest up to $6 billion to establish a large AI data center in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, as it expands its AI computing infrastructure across the U.S. [1][2] Investment and Expansion - The company aims to develop an initial capacity of 100 megawatts (MW) of computing resources, potentially expanding to 300 MW in the future [2][3] - The data center is expected to create 600 high-paying jobs during construction and provide 175 long-term positions once operational [2][3] Market Demand and Performance - The global demand for AI computing power is surging, with significant investments from tech giants like Nvidia and Meta, indicating a strong market for AI infrastructure [2][4] - CoreWeave's stock price has increased over threefold since its IPO in March, closing at $132.37, with a pre-market rise of over 9% following the announcement of the data center [4][5] Technological Advancements - CoreWeave is set to deploy next-generation Nvidia AI GPUs and NVL AI server racks to support the training and operation of large-scale AI models [3][6] - The company has become a key player in the AI cloud computing market, being the first to deploy Nvidia's H200 Tensor Core GPU, enhancing its reputation and capabilities [6][7] Service Offering - CoreWeave specializes in providing high-end AI GPU clusters on a large scale, allowing users to access powerful AI computing resources on demand for various AI workloads [7]

Market Review - The domestic market shows a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with rising market risk appetite driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and expectations from important real estate meetings, leading to an increase in stock and commodity markets while the bond market remains under pressure. Major A-share indices saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, led by real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors. The banking index reached a historical high on Thursday but adjusted on Friday [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "stabilizing fund" is seen as a stabilizer for A-shares, with three main lines expected to perform well. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points for the first time this year, with large financials, "anti-involution," and technology themes showing alternating upward trends. The proportion of financing funds and northbound trading funds in the market has significantly increased, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite driven by profit-making effects. Unlike the previous "924" rally, the current A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains will require volume support, and short-term market consolidation may be needed. However, the policy support for capital markets remains strong, and the influx of medium- to long-term funds like the "stabilizing fund" suggests limited downside even if the market experiences pullbacks, presenting numerous structural opportunities in a "stable yet rising" environment [2][3]. Industry Allocation - Focus on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) In a low-interest-rate environment, stable dividend assets will continue to be an important direction for medium- to long-term fund allocation 2) Beneficiaries of price increases in related resource sectors, such as minor metals and industrial metals 3) New technology and growth sectors, including military industry, marine economy, AI computing power, and solid-state batteries [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the telecommunications industry [1][42]. Core Insights - The MWC Shanghai showcased new opportunities in low-orbit satellite ground infrastructure, with AMD Helios cabinets potentially utilizing more optical modules and copper cables [2][5]. - CoreWeave has initiated the first batch of shipments for the GB300 NVL72 system, expected to significantly enhance AI computing capabilities, with a projected shipment of over one million units of GB200 by 2025 [5][16]. - Oracle has signed a substantial cloud computing agreement worth $30 billion, anticipated to contribute over $30 billion annually starting from the 2028 fiscal year, indicating strong demand for AI computing resources [6][17]. - The new leadership at China Star Network is expected to accelerate the construction and commercialization of low-orbit satellite internet, with a focus on market-oriented operations and ecosystem breakthroughs [7][18][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The telecommunications industry is experiencing a shift towards AI computing and satellite internet, driven by significant investments and technological advancements [5][6][7]. - The demand for AI computing is expected to remain robust, with a favorable outlook for the second half of the year and into the next [5][16]. Market Performance - The overall market showed mixed performance during the week of June 30 to July 6, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25% [9][20]. - The telecommunications sector saw a slight decline, with the Shenwan Communications Index down by 0.10% [9][20]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies in the overseas computing sector include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others [8][20]. - In the satellite internet space, companies such as Shanghai Huanxun and Xinke Mobile are highlighted for potential investment [8][20].

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of cyclical investment is recovering, with indicators showing a positive correlation between stock price movements and recent earnings growth since June, suggesting that market performance is increasingly guided by economic conditions [1] Group 1: Resource Products - Price Increases: Resource products such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals have seen continuous price increases due to tight supply and marginal demand improvement, leading to higher earnings certainty for Q2 [1] - Supply Clearing: Industries like steel, building materials, coal, and chemicals are experiencing accelerated supply reduction, which, combined with demand recovery, is expected to enhance earnings elasticity and reverse industry challenges [2] - Q2 Earnings Clues: Key resource product categories with significant earnings revisions since Q2 include building materials (coatings, glass fiber, cement), chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides), steel (special steel), and non-ferrous metals (nickel, cobalt, gold, copper) [2] Group 2: AI Computing Power - Performance Divergence: Since June, there has been a notable divergence within the AI sector, with upstream hardware (PCB, optical modules) outperforming midstream software services and downstream applications [3] - North American Computing Chain: The North American computing chain, represented by optical modules and PCBs, has shown enhanced earnings certainty, with significant upward revisions in Q2 earnings, contrasting with downward adjustments in domestic computing chains [3] - Earnings as a Key Driver: The performance of various segments within the AI industry has been closely correlated with the extent of Q2 earnings revisions, indicating that earnings certainty is becoming a critical factor in pricing within the tech sector [3]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market is approaching the 3500-point mark, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.46%, and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.7%, closing at 3497.48 points [1][9] - The total trading volume for the day reached 1.45 trillion, an increase of 245.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The solar energy sector experienced a significant surge, with the Solar 50 ETF rising nearly 6% and other solar ETFs increasing by around 5.5% [1][2] Group 2: Industrial and AI Sector Growth - Industrial Fulian, a leading company in the AI computing sector, saw its stock hit the daily limit due to strong earnings expectations, with a projected net profit of 11.958 billion to 12.158 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.84% to 39.12% [7] - The AI computing sector's growth is attributed to high demand for AI infrastructure, including 800G switches and AI servers, driven by the ongoing AI wave [7] - The stock performance of Industrial Fulian has historically shown a correlation with the overall market trends, often serving as a leading indicator for market movements [7] Group 3: Global Investment Trends - A German pension fund, KZVK, has allocated $50 million to invest in Chinese stocks through a Hong Kong asset management firm, indicating a renewed interest in the Chinese market [12][14] - The global investment landscape is shifting, with increasing inquiries from investors about opportunities in China, driven by attractive valuations and improving fundamentals [17] - Despite the positive outlook, overseas funds have not yet significantly re-entered the Chinese market, with a notable focus on Japan and European markets instead [14][17] Group 4: Bond ETF Market Dynamics - The recent launch of 10 technology innovation bond ETFs raised a total of 30 billion yuan in a single day, marking a significant event in the bond ETF market [18] - The bond ETF market has seen a net inflow of 184.59 billion yuan this year, with significant contributions from various bond indices [18][19] - The total scale of bond ETFs has reached 390.7 billion yuan, with expectations to surpass 400 billion yuan soon [20]

Group 1 - The technology growth sector is expected to be the main investment theme for the next three to five years, particularly in AI-related areas [1][2] - The A-share market is currently at a relative bottom in terms of valuation, policy, and performance, indicating long-term investment value in equity assets [1] - A series of favorable policies have been introduced to stabilize the market, including increased ETF holdings by the Central Huijin and optimized insurance fund regulations [1] Group 2 - The AI computing power industry chain is anticipated to see demand exceed market expectations due to the construction of major AI clusters in the US, Europe, and the Middle East [3] - The automotive industry is shifting towards smart technology, with significant investment opportunities expected in smart driving and intelligent cockpit systems by 2025 [3][4] - Internet companies embracing AI and AI hardware firms are likely to see sustained performance improvements as they leverage technological advancements and ecosystem advantages [4]