Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical crises, and central bank gold purchases, the prices of gold and silver showed significant upward trends. Looking ahead to 2026, the prospects for the precious metals market remain optimistic, with continued fiscal expansion in major countries, expected further interest - rate cuts by the Fed, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US, all of which may support investment demand for precious metals [2][158]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Precious Metals Market Review - **Gold Market Review** - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold had three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, it increased from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce; and from 2016 - 2025, it reached over $4000/ounce [5][6][8]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: COMEX gold futures rose from $2758/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $4398/ounce on October 20, a cumulative increase of over 59%. SHFE gold futures also reached a record high of 1005.08 yuan/gram on October 21 [2][12]. - **Silver Market Review** - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, they soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, they increased from $4/ounce to $49/ounce; and from 2021 - 2025, they broke through $50/ounce [17][19]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: COMEX silver rose from $30.5/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $55.13/ounce on November 13, an increase of 78%. SHFE silver reached a high of 12664 yuan/kg on November 13, a maximum increase of 67% [21]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Economy on Precious Metals Prices** - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle supported the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates twice, which reduced the yield of traditional assets and increased the attractiveness of gold [29]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US GDP was expected to grow by 2% year - on - year, with core CPI remaining around 3.1%. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, and the manufacturing PMI was below 50. The service industry drove the US economy to maintain resilience. The "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the US's medium - and long - term fiscal outlook, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [31][34]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index was negatively correlated with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening US dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [43]. - **Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices**: Global central banks continued to increase their gold reserves in 2025. In the third quarter, the net gold purchases reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year. Most central banks still plan to increase their gold reserves in the future [44][48]. - **Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices**: Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict increased market uncertainty and risk - aversion sentiment, driving investors to turn to gold. These events also affected the supply and demand pattern of gold [53]. Part III: Precious Metals Supply and Demand Analysis - **Gold Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Gold Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw - material gold production was 271.782 tons, a 1.39% increase year - on - year, and imported raw - material gold production was 121.149 tons, an 8.94% increase. The global total gold supply was 3717.4 tons [54]. - **Gold Demand Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the global total gold demand was 3717.4 tons, a slight increase. China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a 7.95% decrease year - on - year [60]. - **Gold Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHF gold inventory continued to rise, especially after September, while COMEX gold inventory was stable after the first - quarter increase and gradually declined slightly in October [66]. - **Silver Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Silver Supply Analysis**: It was expected that the global silver supply in 2025 would increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [71]. - **Silver Demand Analysis**: It was expected that the global silver demand in 2025 would decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces, with a 0.5% decrease in industrial demand, a 6% decrease in jewelry demand, and a 7% increase in investment demand [74]. - **Silver Inventory Analysis**: SHFE silver inventory decreased from a high at the beginning of 2025, then increased significantly from late May to early July, and then decreased. COMEX silver inventory increased in the first quarter and then fluctuated. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory also showed a downward trend [75]. Part IV: Precious Metals Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis - **Gold Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis** - **Domestic Gold Futures - Spot Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October, presenting arbitrage opportunities [84]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with opportunities for inter - period arbitrage when the spread decreased significantly [88]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply. After a significant decline from the high, its future direction was difficult to predict [89]. - **SHFE Gold Position and Capital Inflow Analysis**: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE gold futures were mostly long. The net long positions decreased during the rapid rise in gold prices from September to October [94]. - **Silver Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis** - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October and then returning to negative [105]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with significant fluctuations during the year [109]. - **SHFE Silver Position and Capital Inflow Analysis**: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE silver futures were long. Capital inflow was obvious from January to mid - June, then fluctuated horizontally, and increased again from September to early October [114]. Part V: Precious Metals Options Analysis and Strategies - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in the past two years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while the put - call ratio of silver options shows that investors may be more inclined to buy put options in October to avoid risks [126]. - Strategies include buying at - the - money call options when expecting price increases and increased volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options when expecting price increases but decreased volatility, selling strangles when implied volatility is high, and buying at - the - money straddles when expecting significant market fluctuations [127]. Part VI: Precious Metals Seasonal Analysis - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals are more likely to rise in April and October and more likely to fall in June [144]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Fed's 2026 Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, with two possible cuts in the first half of the year, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [154]. - **US Government Policy Orientation in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow in 2026, with a high fiscal deficit rate. If the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time, inflation will have less restraint on interest - rate cuts [155]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold demand growth was mainly driven by investment demand. In the third quarter, investment demand increased by 47% year - on - year. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic [158]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500, and COMEX silver has strong support at $40. SHFE gold has support at 780 yuan, and SHFE silver has support at 9400 yuan [161]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [174].

其实周五那天的市场特别有戏剧性，本来美国赶上"黑色星期五"，大家都忙着购物，期货市场的交易量 就比平时清淡，结果芝商所的交易平台还出了几个小时的故障，直接把全球大宗商品的波动给放大了， 连到期的汽油、柴油期货合约都跟着乱了阵脚。就在这种乱糟糟的行情里，原油和金属硬是走出了两条 完全相反的路。 先说说原油，这波四连跌可是2023年以来最长的一次，周五最后收在58美元多一桶。核心原因其实就两 点，一是大家担心市场供应过剩，二是地缘政治的风险溢价在下降。听说特朗普上周跟委内瑞拉的马杜 罗通了电话，还聊到了潜在会面的事，这两国关系一缓和，石油市场的紧张情绪自然就松了不少。另外 大家也在等周日OPEC+的线上会议，目前看他们大概率会维持到2026年初暂停增产的计划，短期也没 法缓解供应压力，油价自然扛不住。还有俄乌那边，普京也说特朗普的停火方案能当谈判基础，虽然关 键分歧还在，但局势缓和的预期已经影响了市场。 各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者、专盯中长线投资的老炮儿！最近大宗商品市场真是 把"反差感"拉满了，一边是原油跌跌不休连着四个月走低，另一边白银、铜价直接飙到历史新高，是不 是好多朋友看懵了，想知道这背 ...

此前，委内瑞拉副总统罗德里格斯11月26日重申，委内瑞拉反对任何形式外部施压和干涉。委内瑞拉指 认，美方以"扫毒"为借口部署大量兵力，其最终目的是颠覆总统马杜罗领导的委内瑞拉政府。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 白银昨日刺破前高，日线RSI到达高位，4小时触及54关口，短线走势强劲，如果银价稳定在53.50美元 上方，则将向54.50美元附近的历史高点前进。相对强弱指标处于中等水平，有足够的空间获得动力。 当地时间11月26日，美国南方司令部航空部队发布公报表示，B-52H型战略轰炸机在加勒比海进行了战 术攻击演习。公报称，B-52H此次演习行动在国际水域沿委内瑞拉海岸线展开。 美国和委内瑞拉近期关系紧张。美国加紧在加勒比海域部署。11月4日，美国"杰拉尔德·R·福特"号航空 母舰通过直布罗陀海峡，驶往加勒比海。10月23日，飞行追踪数据显示至少有一架美国B-1B轰炸机靠 近委内瑞拉沿岸，随后，美国总统特朗普予以否认。委内瑞拉总统马杜罗多次指责美国意图通过军事威 胁在委搞政权更迭，并在拉美进行军事扩张。 美军此次演习，标志着美国对拉美政策的重大转向。从特朗普政府否认轰炸机抵近，到当前高调公布演 习细节，美国正在放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge driven by strong demand from the photovoltaic industry and a structural supply gap, marking the beginning of a "silver storm" fueled by green energy [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Historical Context - As of November 28, 2023, spot silver prices rose by 1.00% to $53.90 per ounce, marking four consecutive days of gains [1]. - Since October 3, 2023, silver has increased by 163% from a low of $20.67 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $54.38 per ounce on November 13, 2023 [2]. - In comparison, gold prices rose by 142% during the same period, from $1,813.90 per ounce to a peak of $4,381.21 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver is projected to increase from 644 million ounces in 2023 to 689.1 million ounces in 2024, with silver usage in solar panels rising from 191.8 million ounces to 243.7 million ounces, a 158% increase from 2020 [4]. - The global solar power capacity is expected to add approximately 600 gigawatts (GW) in 2024, with projections of nearly 1,000 GW by 2030 [5]. - The International Energy Agency anticipates an addition of 4,000 GW of solar power capacity from 2024 to 2030, potentially increasing silver demand by nearly 150 million ounces annually, representing a 13% increase on top of the 1.169 billion ounces of physical demand expected in 2024 [6]. Group 3: Market Gap and Future Outlook - The silver market is projected to have a gap of 501.4 million ounces in 2024, significantly larger than the 19.4 million ounces gap in 2023 [7]. - Current spot silver prices reflect a daily increase of 0.84%, with COMEX silver futures up by 1.38% [7].

中国白银集团(00815)发布公告，公司董事会建议通过增设20亿股股份，将公司法定股本由3000万港元 (分为30亿股股份)增加至5000万港元(分为50亿股股份)，而该等股份于发行后将于各方面与现有股份享 有同等地位。 截至本公告日期，已发行29.54亿股股份，而4566.24万股股份为法定但未发行。为应对余下认购事项及 为公司的未来集资机遇提供灵活性，以推动公司的未来业务计划及发展，董事会认为增加法定股本符合 公司及其股东的整体利益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reports on the closing prices of key commodities, highlighting the performance of gold, silver, and crude oil in the market on November 26. Group 1: Gold and Silver Performance - The main gold futures contract closed up by 0.45%, reaching 946 yuan per gram [1] - The main silver futures contract increased by 0.76%, closing at 12,103 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 2: Crude Oil Performance - The main SC crude oil futures contract fell by 0.98%, ending at 443 yuan per barrel [1]

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading above $41.42, with a recent opening at $51.37 per ounce and a current price of $51.47, reflecting a 0.24% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $51.58, while the lowest was $50.97, indicating a short-term bearish trend in the silver market [1] - Analysts expect silver to trade within the range of $48.5 to $52.5, with a potential breakout above $52.5 leading to a single-direction trend towards previous highs [5] Group 2 - The U.S. government has designated Venezuela's "Sun Group" as a "foreign terrorist organization," with Venezuelan Vice President Rodriguez accusing the U.S. of military intervention aimed at seizing Venezuela's natural resources [3] - Rodriguez emphasized that the U.S. aims to control Venezuela's oil, gas, gold, diamonds, iron, and bauxite, indicating that the motivations behind U.S. pressure include both economic and ideological factors [4] - The U.S. has deployed multiple naval vessels in the Caribbean under the pretext of anti-drug operations, despite reports indicating that Venezuela is not a major source of drugs entering the U.S. [4]

Group 1 - UBS expects weak data this week to increase the probability of a Fed rate cut by year-end, which may put pressure on the dollar [1] - UBS forecasts a 15% rise in global stock markets by 2026, driven by AI and technology, with US GDP growth projected at 1.7% [1] - Barclays suggests that Powell may push for a rate cut next month, with a split among Fed officials on the decision [2] - Barclays anticipates the dollar will strengthen until 2026, supported by significant AI capital expenditure in the US [3] Group 2 - ANZ reports that gold prices have retreated but the fundamentals remain strong, with silver outperforming gold [5] - Bank of America expresses caution regarding Japan's economic stimulus plan, predicting limited impact on GDP growth [4][5] - CICC predicts gold prices could rise to $4,500 per ounce by 2026, driven by cyclical demand [6] - CITIC Securities highlights that global risk assets are overly reliant on AI narratives, suggesting potential volatility [7] - CITIC Securities notes that hydrogen energy is expected to gradually enter the industrialization phase under policy support [8] - CITIC Securities identifies three main lines for consumer goods investment, focusing on the food and beverage sector [9] - CITIC Securities believes that the current market is in a "three-phase overlap," indicating a long-term bullish trend [11] - CITIC Securities sees the establishment of a commercial space agency as a significant step for the satellite industry [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to remain in high - level oscillation, and silver is likely to see a decline catalyzed by its risk - asset attributes. Short - term gold and silver have "bottom - fishing" value, and the new high of silver within the year can still be anticipated [6]. - The price of copper is expected to oscillate in the short term, but the long - term logic of price increase driven by consumption still exists. It is advisable to go long on dips in the long run, and opportunities for internal - external reverse arbitrage can be sought [79][84]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Performance - This week, London gold rose 0.04%, and London silver fell 5.97%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 78.4 last week to 83.1, the 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.82%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 100.15 [6]. Price Analysis - Silver's sharp decline this week was mainly affected by the fall in overseas risk appetite and the decline in equities. It is difficult for silver to break through the previous high, and the callback exceeded expectations. The risk is relatively controllable [6]. - The gold - silver ratio rose from 78.4 last week to 83 [54]. Transaction - related Data - Overseas: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 was 1.479 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was 22.4 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 was 0.329 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was 0.285 dollars per ounce [12][15]. - Domestic: The gold futures - spot spread was - 4.26 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 17 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.14 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 63 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [19][21][25][29]. - Delivery cost: The cost of long - term and short - term cross - month positive arbitrage delivery for gold and silver was calculated, and the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold was mainly paid by longs to shorts, while that for silver was mainly paid by shorts to longs [32][33][34][35][36]. Inventory and Position - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.5%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465 tons to 14,329 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. Gold futures inventory remained unchanged, silver futures inventory decreased by 57 tons to 519 tons, and the gold exchange's silver inventory decreased by 90 tons to 774 tons [38][40][43]. - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both decreased slightly. The SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased by 8.36 tons, and the SLV silver ETF inventory increased by 39.5 tons [45][51][53]. Copper Market Performance - The price of copper is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a price range of 85,000 - 89,000 yuan per ton [79]. Fundamental Analysis - Macro: There is strong uncertainty in the macro - environment. The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and the US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed [84]. - Supply: The logic of tight raw material supply is continuously weakening. Copper concentrate imports are increasing, and scrap copper imports and domestic production are also rising. Domestic refined copper production remains at a high level [84]. - Demand: High copper prices suppress consumption in the short term, but the long - term consumption recovery logic is strong, driven by factors such as AI data centers, energy storage, and new energy vehicles [84]. - Inventory: Global total inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in LME inventory. Nearly 45% of global visible inventory is COMEX warrant inventory, and copper inventory outside the US is relatively low [84]. Transaction - related Data - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE, INE, LME, and COMEX copper all declined. The LME copper price volatility was around 7.5%, and the SHFE copper volatility was around 13% [88]. - Term spread: The term structure of SHFE copper weakened marginally, and the LME copper spot premium weakened [90][92]. - Position: COMEX copper positions increased, while LME and SHFE positions decreased. The LME commercial short net positions increased [93][99]. - Spot premium: The domestic copper spot premium strengthened, and the Southeast Asian copper premium remained stable [103][105]. - Inventory: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory [106].

Core Insights - Hunan Silver (002716) has seen significant stock price appreciation this year, with a maximum increase exceeding 100% [1] - The fourth largest shareholder has announced a share reduction plan, following a similar announcement from the second largest shareholder a month prior [1] - Both major shareholders acquired their shares through Hunan Silver's 2020 restructuring plan [1] Financial Performance - As of November 19, 2025, Hunan Silver's closing price was 6.34 yuan, with a market capitalization exceeding 17 billion yuan [1] - The market value of 210 million shares held by Chenzhou Guokong is approximately 1.3314 billion yuan, which is about five times the amount paid for the restructuring investment [1] - Similarly, the 115 million shares held by Great Wall Asset Management have a market value of approximately 729.1 million yuan, also around five times the investment amount [1] Shareholder Actions - If Chenzhou Guokong and Great Wall Asset Management reduce their holdings by 56.46 million shares and 55 million shares respectively at the price of 6.34 yuan, they would realize cash amounts of approximately 358 million yuan and 348.7 million yuan [1]