Group 1 - The report indicates that the short-end interest rates are prioritized, and there is an opportunity to increase allocation in perpetual bonds after previous adjustments, as current yield levels show certain cost-effectiveness [11][22][12] - The macroeconomic data shows that the manufacturing PMI for February is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued weak production activity [11][12] - The government work report emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and continued implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, with major fiscal tools remaining largely unchanged from the previous year, suggesting limited direct impact on the bond market [12][11] Group 2 - The report notes that the average issuance rate of credit bonds has decreased, with the average rate at 2.04%, an increase of 18 basis points from the previous week, while the average issuance period has risen to 2.97 years, an increase of 0.98 years [54][58] - The total issuance of credit bonds for the week is 296.37 billion yuan, a 272.98% increase from the previous week, but a decrease of 62.96 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [50][54] - The report highlights that the net financing amount for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds has increased significantly, indicating a positive trend in these sectors [50][54]

Report Information - Report Title: Economic target growth rate is softly lowered, and the surge in crude oil prices may trigger overseas stagflation expectations - Reiterate flexible and efficient reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and bond yields may continue to fluctuate downward driven by funds and risk appetite [1] - Report Date: March 8, 2026 - Author: Li Rongkai, Macro Team of Zhongtai Futures Research Institute - Contact Information: TEL 13361063969, Email lirk@ztqh.com Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - Reiterate flexible and efficient reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and bond yields may continue to fluctuate downward driven by funds and risk appetite [6] Summary by Directory 01 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - Reiterate flexible and efficient reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and bond yields may continue to fluctuate downward driven by funds and risk appetite [6] 02 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - Domestic bond yields decline, US bond yields rise, and the US dollar index strengthens. In the equity market, both domestic and overseas markets weaken, and commodities rise significantly, especially crude oil, European routes, and agricultural products [12] 03 Recent Macroeconomic Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - **Domestic**: The manufacturing PMI in February declined more than expected, mainly due to seasonal factors. As the Spring Festival factors fade and temperatures rise, the probability of the PMI rebounding in March is high, but it is still difficult to rise to 50%. Special attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil supply shocks on downstream production [30][31] - **Overseas**: The most important economic data released this week in the United States is the unexpectedly cold February non - farm payrolls report. This report forms a stagflation combination with the tense Middle East situation, putting the Fed in a dilemma. The market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts this year have changed, with the first cut postponed from June to September and the number of cuts reduced from 3 to 2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI reached 56.1, the highest in more than three years, indicating strong expansion in the service sector [31] - **Geopolitical Risks**: The conflict in the Middle East has escalated into a war, and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz has been severely受阻. Gulf countries will be forced to cut production due to capacity limitations, and overseas downstream refineries will face maintenance and shutdowns. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz's passage situation on the macro - economy is greater than the war itself, but this is difficult to predict [31] 04 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures and Spot Index Monitoring (P14 - 24) - **Fundamentals**: The central bank's large - scale withdrawal in the open market has not affected the overall loose and stable fund prices. Bank interbank certificate of deposit rates and SHIBOR1Y rates continue to decline slowly. There may be room for further decline in 1 - year fund rates in the future. The central bank governor's statement on monetary policy is generally neutral. The statement on anti - involution goes beyond traditional credit policy guidance, and future monetary and credit injections will be more targeted [8][41] - **Bond Market**: Bond yields fluctuate within a reasonable range, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield stable around 1.8%, and corporate bond issuance costs remaining low. The bond market was strong this week due to the impact of risk - aversion sentiment. If the central bank continues to conduct large - scale liquidity injections, it is possible that the interbank certificate of deposit rate will continue to move towards 1.5%, which is beneficial to medium - and long - term bonds [8] 05 Equity Broad - based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures and Spot Index Monitoring (P25 - 31) - **Fundamentals**: Analyzed the ROE, EPS, and PE of major broad - based indexes, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., to reflect the fundamentals of the equity market [97][100][102] - **Liquidity**: Tracked the trading volume, margin trading balance, and turnover rate of the equity market, as well as the net purchase of southbound funds, to understand the liquidity situation of the equity market [117][122][125] 06 Macroeconomic Medium - Term Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P32 - 51) - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: Analyzed the year - on - year changes in fiscal revenue and expenditure, fiscal expenditure progress, and land transfer revenue and expenditure of local governments [153][155][157] - **Bond Financing and Fund Supply and Demand**: Studied the relationship between social financing, M2, M1, and the issuance and financing of government bonds [161][162][163] - **Economic Fundamentals - Real Estate**: Monitored real - estate - related indicators such as land transaction area, housing sales area, housing prices, and real - estate development investment to understand the real - estate market situation [170][180][181] - **Inflation Tracking**: Tracked inflation indicators such as the CPI, PPI, and prices of key commodities to understand the inflation situation [193][204][207] - **Industrial Production and Inventory Tracking**: Monitored industrial production indicators such as steel output, iron water production, and factory operating rates, as well as inventory levels of various industries, to understand the industrial production and inventory situation [213][224][230] 07 Macroeconomic Long - Wave Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P52 - 53) - Not provided in the document Other Important Information - **Central Bank Meetings and Policies**: The 2025 December Central Political Bureau Meeting and the 2025 December Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and put forward requirements in various aspects such as economic development, industrial policies, and risk prevention [334][336][337] - **US Fed Meeting**: The December 2025 Fed meeting had a relatively hawkish stance on economic forecasts, dot plots, and interest rate cut rhythms, but was relatively dovish on the balance between inflation and employment [332][333] - **US Tariff Policies**: The US trade war strategy may have a major turning point. The US's use of IEEPA to impose tariffs on foreign products is difficult to continue, and the new tariff measures based on the 122nd article of the 1974 Trade Act also face legal risks. There may be a long - term refund battle, and the US may turn to more traditional trade - war tools [342][344][347] - **Public Offering Fund Sales New Regulations**: Compared the old and new regulations on the sales fees of public offering funds, including subscription fees, redemption fees, sales service fees, and client maintenance fees [340]

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in U.S. non-farm employment, with February showing a decrease of 92,000 jobs, which is far below the expected increase of 59,000 jobs. This decline indicates a weakening trend in job creation capacity, even when excluding temporary factors like weather and government shutdowns [4][11][20]. - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.44%, up by 0.16 percentage points from January, with a notable drop in labor force participation and employment rates, raising concerns about the labor market's health [12][22]. - Inflation expectations are rising due to high oil prices, with the potential for a "second inflation" scenario if the conflict in Iran continues, which could push global inflation rates back up to 6% or 7% from 4.1% in 2025 [14][15]. Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls saw a significant drop, with a three-month moving average of only 6,000 jobs added, indicating a persistent weakening in job creation [11][20]. - The private sector also experienced job losses, with a reduction of 86,000 jobs in February, particularly in the goods-producing and service sectors [11][20]. - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.0%, the lowest since the pandemic recovery began, with a reduction of nearly 1.4 million in the labor force population [12][22]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The report notes that average hourly earnings increased by 3.84% year-on-year, indicating wage rigidity despite job losses, which may contribute to rising living costs [13][24]. - If oil prices remain between $80 and $100 per barrel, global inflation could rise by 2-3 percentage points, significantly impacting economic stability [15][14]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy path is under scrutiny, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts later in the year, influenced by the ongoing inflation concerns [15][14]. Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's GDP for Q4 was revised down to a growth of 0.2%, with contributions from fixed investment and household consumption being lower than previously estimated [31]. - The Eurozone's CPI unexpectedly rose to 1.9% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, indicating inflationary pressures in the region [33]. - Retail sales in the Eurozone showed a slight decline, with January figures reflecting a seasonally adjusted decrease of 0.1% [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term end of the bond market, especially the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) rate, has approached historical lows, and the analysis and judgment of it have little meaning due to the narrowing of fluctuations and changes in supply - demand structure [1][2][24]. - For the long - term end, the bond market shows a dull performance. Without clear monetary policy easing actions, the downward overdraft trading of long - term yields won't go far, and there is no obvious upward adjustment risk either [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Near - historical low NCDs: How to view? **1.1 Situation of Long - term and Short - term Bond Yields** - Long - term: During the period around the Two Sessions, the 30 - year ultra - long - term interest rate was weak, while the 10 - year interest rate was stable. The bond market was insensitive to both risk - aversion sentiment and inflation concerns. Without clear monetary policy easing, long - term yields had no significant upward or downward trends [9]. - Short - term: The NCD rate has approached historical lows. The 1 - year NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks and the yields of bank financial bonds and 3 - year CDB bonds declined synchronously and slowly. The 1 - year NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks had a first - level issuance and second - level price around 1.55%, close to the historical low of 1.54% in 2020. The decline in NCD and short - term interest rates compressed the spread with the capital interest rate [12]. **1.2 Changes in NCD Supply - demand Structure** - Supply side: The NCD stock has significantly decreased, with state - owned and joint - stock banks reducing about 3 trillion. Since 2024, state - owned banks have become the main suppliers. However, since the second half of 2025, the net financing of NCDs has been continuously negative. The low willingness of banks to issue NCDs is due to changes in the liability situation, such as the narrowing of the broad liability gap and the improvement of the deposit side. Additionally, central bank injections and inter - bank deposits can replace NCDs [14][15][18]. - Demand side: Product accounts maintain their NCD allocations, while banks actively reduce their holdings. Product accounts like bank wealth management and money market funds maintain stable NCD investments, while banks' NCD holdings have significantly decreased, which is related to the lack of spread space and the extrusion of idle funds after the tightening of inter - bank self - discipline [22]. **1.3 Pricing and Significance of NCDs** - The reasonable pricing of NCDs may be concentrated in the narrow range of 1.55% - 1.6%. There may be windows below 1.55%, but it loses the meaning of investment gaming. If the rate goes up, it will be when all maturities and varieties of interest rates face upward risks. With the narrowing of capital fluctuations, short - term products including NCDs have lost their "activity", and the significance of analysis and judgment is small [1][24]. 2. Risk Outlook No content other than risk warnings is provided in this part, so it is skipped.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, is the dominant factor in the market. It has led to increased market volatility, a decline in risk appetite, a sharp rise in oil prices, and an increase in global inflationary pressures [4]. - The A - share market shows some resilience and independence, but as the US - Iran war continues, China may face rising foreign trade and raw material costs, and there are concerns about the suppression of risk - assets by liquidity changes in a stagflation scenario [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The Middle - East situation, with blocked transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, has caused a sharp rise in oil prices, increased global inflationary pressures, reduced the Fed's short - term willingness to cut interest rates, and increased the market's expectation of the ECB's interest rate hike [4]. - The unexpected US February non - farm payroll report has increased the risk of the US getting into a long - term war and the risk of stagflation, which is negative for the stock market and makes global bond yields more likely to rise [4]. - Overseas turmoil affects China's risk appetite, but the A - share market shows resilience. However, as the US - Iran war continues, China may face cost increases and liquidity risks [4]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global stock markets generally declined this week. In developed markets, the S&P 500 fell 2.02%, the German DAX fell 6.70%, etc.; in emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93% relatively resistant, while the Saudi All - Share Index rose 2.87% [6][7]. - MSCI global indices generally declined, with the order of decline being developed > global > frontier > emerging [7]. 3.2.2 Currency Market - This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound, reaching 99, up 1.54% from last week. The on - shore RMB depreciated 0.62% to around 6.90. Emerging market and developed - country currencies generally weakened [8]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - Inflation concerns have led to an upward trend in the yields of ten - year government bonds in major developed countries. In emerging markets, China's bond yield slightly declined to 1.78%, while India and Brazil's bond yields increased [13]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to a rapid rise in energy prices, with WTI crude oil rising 35.64% and natural gas rising 11.38%. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals have corrected [22]. - In the domestic commodity market, there are both gains and losses, with the order of performance being energy and chemicals > industrial products > black metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals [22]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes | Asset Class | Rating | Investment Advice | | --- | --- | --- | | Gold | Weak and volatile | The Middle - East situation has pushed up oil prices and inflation, reducing the Fed's rate - cut expectation, which pressures gold, but stagflation risk is positive for gold [24]. | | US Dollar | Volatile | The unexpected US - Iran war has strengthened the US dollar in the short term [24]. | | US Stocks | Bearish | High oil prices increase the risk of rising AI electricity and financing costs, and US stocks may continue to be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks [24]. | | A - shares | Volatile | The US - Iran conflict affects the market. Although China has relative advantages, there are concerns about the suppression of risk - assets by liquidity changes in a stagflation scenario [24]. | | Government Bonds | Volatile | If the market expects the war to end soon, the bond market should be slightly stronger and volatile. However, the high unpredictability of the war requires close attention to its progress and inflation risks [24]. | 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US GDPNow model predicts a Q1 growth rate of 2.12%. Retail sales are growing, and the employment market remains resilient [74]. - The US banking system's liquidity is still tight, and the credit spread of high - yield corporate bonds has risen. The market expects the first Fed rate cut to be postponed to September, with only one rate cut expected in 2026 [81]. - The US February non - farm employment was unexpectedly weak, but the service industry PMI continued to rebound [84]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market has a supply rebound faster than demand. There are expectations for incremental policies, but the path to improving expectations is unclear [90]. - The inter - bank market's repurchase rate and trading volume have changed, with the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week at 1.49%, 1.41%, 1.32%, and 1.41% respectively as of March 6 [93]. - Economic data shows a pattern of weakening in total, with supply stronger than demand in structure and domestic demand weaker than external demand [94]. - In January, PPI continued to recover while CPI declined. In December, import and export growth rates exceeded expectations [108][114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies this year, with policy synergy being a highlight. The capital scale in three aspects has reached new highs, and the central government has arranged 100 billion yuan to launch a package of fiscal - financial cooperation policies to boost domestic demand [18][2][16]. - The Fed's monetary policy outlook faces increased uncertainty due to a weakening labor market and rising geopolitical risks, and there may be a risk of stagflation in the US [33]. - The impact of the Two Sessions on the bond market is generally neutral. The bond market may continue to fluctuate, and future focus should be on changes in risk appetite, market expectations for interest rate cuts, and price recovery [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 slowed to 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in Q3 2025 and 5.4% in Q4 2024 [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing a decline [1]. - In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 7.2208 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The government will continue to implement more active fiscal policies this year, with the total expenditure exceeding 30 trillion yuan, new government bond issuance reaching 11.89 trillion yuan, and central government transfer payments to local governments reaching 10.42 trillion yuan [2][18]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange have adjusted trading limits, margin ratios, and handling fees for some futures contracts [3][4]. - A large amount of funds have flowed into oil and gas assets through ETFs and linked funds, but the "return dilution" phenomenon has reappeared [5]. 3.2.2 Metals - On March 8, the retail prices of pure gold jewelry of major domestic brands were around 1,583 - 1,590 yuan per gram, and some brands have announced or plan to raise prices [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.4278 trillion US dollars, and the central bank's gold reserves increased by 300,000 ounces month - on - month [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel, and Minerals - The coking coal market in February 2026 showed a weak and volatile trend, and in March, the supply - demand fundamentals improved, but prices may fluctuate rather than rise unilaterally [9]. - Due to the reduction in nickel ore production quotas, Indonesia's nickel processing capacity utilization rate may drop to 70 - 75% in 2026, and nickel ore imports are expected to increase significantly [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices will be raised at 24:00 on March 9. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices have reached record weekly highs [9]. - Due to the conflict in Iran, major oil - producing countries have cut production, and the prices of crude oil and natural gas have risen [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In February 2026, the sales volume of pig products of three listed pig enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year performance varied [13]. - Ukraine's grain exports for the 2026/27 season are expected to include 14 million tons of wheat, 25 million tons of corn, and 2.5 million tons of barley [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature in the central bank's open market [15]. - The central bank carried out 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on March 6, with a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan on that day [15]. 3.3.2 Important News - Institutions predict that the Spring Festival effect will drive a significant year - on - year rebound in February's CPI, and rising non - ferrous metal prices will support the increase in PPI [16]. - The central bank will implement moderately loose monetary policies this year, use various policy tools flexibly, and strengthen the synergy of policies. It will also support the capital market and expand the scale of re - loans [16][17]. - The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and optimize the refinancing mechanism [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China remained in a consolidation state, with slightly differentiated yields of major interest - rate bonds, and short - term bonds performed better [26]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performances, and the convertible bond index rose [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 22 points at the 16:30 close on March 9, and the US dollar index fell 0.09% in New York trading [31]. - China's foreign exchange reserves have increased for seven consecutive months, and gold reserves have increased for 16 consecutive months [32]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that there may be five major expected differences in the market, and there is a risk of "insufficient policy momentum" in the second half of the year [33]. - CICC and other institutions believe that the economic growth target in the government work report takes into account long - term sustainability and short - term necessity, and policies focus on both quantity and quality [34]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 9, 277 bonds will be listed, 123 bonds will be issued, 99 bonds will make payments, and 479 bonds will repay principal and interest [36]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The CSRC will improve the market - stabilizing mechanism, develop diversified equity financing, and support the development of the futures and derivatives market [38]. - The central bank will cooperate with the CSRC to support the capital market and enhance its stability and vitality [38]. - The A - share market fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.38%, and some sectors such as power grid equipment and medical stocks performing strongly [39].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - Ongoing US-Iran conflict is impacting market risk appetite, with major global stock indices declining except for Malaysia's FTSE Kuala Lumpur Index, which saw a slight increase[2] - Brent crude oil prices surged to $92.69 per barrel, up 27.9% from the previous week, driven by geopolitical tensions affecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz[2][9] - US employment data shows a decrease of 92,000 non-farm jobs in February, with an unemployment rate rising to 4.4% from 4.3%[3][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Eurozone unemployment unexpectedly fell to 6.1% in January, marking a historical low, while February's harmonized CPI rose to 1.9% from 1.7%[12] - The ISM manufacturing index for February stood at 52.4, with the price index reaching 70.5, the highest in three years, indicating inflationary pressures[3][6] - Retail sales in the US for January showed a month-on-month decline of 0.16%, while excluding automobiles and gas, retail sales increased by 0.28%[3][6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Major stock indices in the US, Europe, and Asia experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.02% and the European STOXX600 down 5.55%[11][13] - US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 18 basis points to 4.15%, reflecting a shift from safe-haven trading to energy re-inflation trading[15] - The US dollar index strengthened by 1.34%, closing at 98.96, while other major currencies, including the euro and yen, depreciated against the dollar[19]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report indicates a downward adjustment of GDP growth target to 4.5%-5.0%, which is aimed at creating space for structural optimization and high-quality development [8][9][10] - The report highlights a significant increase in global stagflation expectations due to rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [11][12] - The employment data for February shows a decline in non-farm payrolls by 92,000, which is significantly below the expected 59,000, indicating a potential economic slowdown [8][11] Industry and Company Insights - The chemical industry report notes that the fluorochemical sector is expected to see a positive growth rate in air conditioning production in Q2 2026, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise [3] - The public environmental sector report emphasizes the upcoming review of the Ecological Environment Code, suggesting investment opportunities in integrated environmental companies [3] - The banking industry outlook for 2026 suggests a focus on stock selection as the industry transitions from policy support to performance recovery, with high-quality stocks leading the value reassessment [3] - The lithium battery industry report mentions BYD's launch of the second-generation blade battery and the EU's proposal for an industrial acceleration bill, indicating growth potential in the electric vehicle sector [3] - The agricultural sector report indicates that beef prices remain strong despite seasonal trends, while the pig farming industry is expected to continue capacity reduction post-holiday, influenced by rising oil prices [3] Market Performance - The report provides a snapshot of major market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4124.19 points, reflecting a 0.38% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.59% [2] - The report also highlights the performance of various global indices, with the Dow Jones down by 0.94% and the Nasdaq down by 1.58%, indicating a mixed performance across markets [4] Fixed Income Insights - The fixed income report indicates that the long-term bond market remains stable despite geopolitical tensions, with a slight increase in trading activity observed [15][16] - The report notes that the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds is at a historically low level, suggesting potential upward pressure on long-term rates [15][16] - The convertible bond market report highlights a decline in most convertible bonds, with the overall market facing challenges due to high valuations and geopolitical risks [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From March 2 - 6, 2026, the central bank net - withdrew 136.34 billion yuan through short - term reverse repurchases and conducted an 80 - billion - yuan 3M outright reverse repurchase operation on March 6. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) declined, the net financing of inter - bank CDs turned positive, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market rose slightly. From March 9 - 15, 2026, the expected net payment scale of government bonds is - 20.21 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank CDs is about 100.82 billion yuan. On March 6, 2026, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.12 years and decreased by 0.06 years week - on - week respectively [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Funds - **Central bank's open - market operations**: From March 2 - 6, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase investment was 16.16 billion yuan, and the withdrawal was 152.5 billion yuan, achieving a net withdrawal of 136.34 billion yuan. On March 6, an 80 - billion - yuan 3M outright reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with a maturity volume of 100 billion yuan this month and a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. From March 9 - 13, 2026, 27.76 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [6]. - **Funding rates**: From March 2 - 6, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.29% and 1.36% respectively, down 6.9 and 4.8 basis points compared with February 24 - 28, 2026. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.43% and 1.51% respectively, down 7.2 and 5.4 basis points compared with February 24 - 28, 2026. The weighted average rate of DR001 first decreased and then increased from March 2 - 6. The initial increase in the banking system's fund lending ability at the beginning of the month promoted a stable and loose funding situation, while the net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan from the 3M outright reverse repurchase in March and the central bank's withdrawal of short - term reverse repurchases at the beginning of the month caused market concerns about the marginal tightening of the funding situation [7]. - **Government bond net financing**: From March 2 - 8, 2026, the net financing of government bonds was about 28.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 9.16 billion yuan compared with February 23 - March 1, 2026. Among them, the net financing of treasury bonds was about - 3.5 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 31.7 billion yuan. From March 9 - 15, 2026, the expected net financing of government bonds is about - 20.21 billion yuan, with treasury bonds having a net financing of about - 33.29 billion yuan and local government bonds about 13.08 billion yuan [8]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity yields**: As of March 6, 2026, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M inter - bank CDs were 1.4916% and 1.5050% respectively, up 1.7 and down 4.8 basis points compared with February 28, 2026. The 1Y inter - bank CD maturity yield was 1.5500%, down 2.5 basis points compared with February 28, 2026. The decline in inter - bank CD rates was driven by the loose funding situation and the pricing of the expected tightening of inter - bank deposit management [9]. - **Net financing**: From March 2 - 8, 2026, the net financing of inter - bank CDs was about 12.92 billion yuan. From March 9 - 15, 2026, the expected maturity repayment volume of inter - bank CDs is 100.82 billion yuan, up from 58.8 billion yuan in the previous week, increasing the pressure of maturity renewal [9]. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage ratio**: From March 2 - 6, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.62%, up from 107.39% in February 24 - 28, 2026. On March 6 and February 28, 2026, the estimated leverage ratios of the inter - bank bond market were about 107.61% and 106.99% respectively [10]. - **Duration of bond funds**: On March 6, 2026, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.62 years, up 0.12 years compared with February 28, 2026, at the 87.0% quantile since the beginning of 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 2.03 years, down 0.06 years compared with February 28, 2026, at the 79.0% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 448 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on March 6, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,242 billion yuan for the day, and a total net withdrawal of 13,634 billion yuan for the week [1][3]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains loose, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 rising nearly 5 basis points to around 1.32%. Overnight quotes on the anonymous click system (X-repo) also increased to 1.3%, although the supply of funds remains ample [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.557%, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds showed slight differentiation, with long-term bonds being relatively weak. Specific yield changes include a decrease of 0.60% for 14-year government bonds and an increase of 0.90% for 7-year bonds [9]. Group 5: National Development and Reform Commission Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to implement several strategic projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, including major energy and transportation infrastructure investments exceeding 1 trillion yuan [13]. Group 6: Monetary Policy Tools - The central bank will flexibly and efficiently utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to guide and regulate interest rates and promote low financing costs [13]. Group 7: Fiscal Policy Highlights - The Ministry of Finance announced record-high fiscal expenditures exceeding 30 trillion yuan, with new government bond issuance reaching 11.89 trillion yuan, marking the largest effort in recent years [14]. Group 8: Capital Market Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to enhance the stability of the capital market and improve the mechanisms for cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustments, supporting innovative enterprises in the capital market [14].