Economic Overview - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2%, slightly above market consensus, with mixed economic activity data in June [1] - The average GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, leading to an upward adjustment of GDP growth forecasts for 2025/26 to 4.7% and 3.9% respectively [1] Focus Stocks - Didi received a "Buy" rating, with expectations of strong growth in its mobility business and advancements in autonomous driving, projecting a 12-month target price of $7.20 [4] - Anta's retail sales for 2025 are expected to align with forecasts, with a positive outlook for the second half of the year, maintaining a target price of HKD 117 [11] - MakeMy Trip is viewed as an attractive buy opportunity, with expectations of over 20% revenue growth starting in September, and a target price of $123 [12] - JD Health is favored over Alibaba Health due to higher sales growth trends and a target price of HKD 45.80, with a focus on its capital allocation strategy [13] Industry Focus - The market size for China's autonomous taxi sector is projected to reach $14 billion by 2030 and $61 billion by 2035, reflecting a 20% and 31% increase from previous estimates [5] - Improvements in chip supply are expected to positively impact China's cloud computing and data center sectors, with a cautious outlook on capital expenditures for 2025 [8]

在内需成为拉动经济增长主动力和稳定锚的当下，平台以新模 式撬动内需库容不是坏事。就此来看，没必要以"低价=内 卷"思维看这轮巨头鏖战，不如就让市场的归市场，让市场竞 争的价值更多地向"促消费"溢出。 作者： 佘宗明 封图：图虫创意 7月14日，淘宝闪购联合饿了么宣布，其日订单量再次突破8000万（不含自提及0元购）。7月12 日，美团宣布其即时零售订单量达到1.5亿单。加上京东此前官宣的其即时零售日订单量超2500 万，该赛道日订单总量已达到了约2.5亿单。 伴随着日订单量不断创新高而来的，是这轮即时零售大战是否走低价内卷老路子的讨论。 尽管美团、淘宝闪购等平台都打出了反内卷的旗号，有意将巨额补贴跟内卷二字切割，但考虑到低 价是内卷的突出特征，这一轮巨头撒钱的鏖战难免被部分人用"卷"尺丈量。那么，我们该如何看待 这场竞争？ 有几点常识需要厘清：首先，内卷的伴生物是通向逐底竞争的无序价格战，但低价不一定就是内 卷。市场上出现新模式后，企业为了培育用户习惯、扩大需求市场，经常会采取补贴策略，低价对 应的可能是新消费习惯普及时无可避免的前期投入。其次，反内卷不等于反所有市场竞争，没必要 将"内卷"的概念扩大化。 这 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have announced significant developments, including changes in control, asset sales, investments, and performance forecasts, which may present investment opportunities and risks for investors. Group 1: Control Changes and Major Transactions - Helen Piano's actual controllers are planning a change in control, leading to a suspension of trading starting July 18, 2025, for up to two trading days [3] - Tiger Medical is selling 95.09% of its stake in Lixin Pharmaceutical for approximately $34.11 million [4] - ST Lifan announced that its operational situation has not changed significantly despite a stock price fluctuation of 42.54% over two trading days [9] Group 2: Investments and Acquisitions - Sdic plans to invest approximately 509 million yuan in expanding its high-end functional film production capacity [5] - Dongfang Yuhong's subsidiary intends to acquire 100% of Chile's Construmart for about $123 million [6] - Huaitian Thermal Power has been recommended as the owner of a 700,000 kW wind power project, aligning with its investment strategy [7] Group 3: Performance Announcements - Hangzhou Bank reported a net profit of 11.662 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 16.67% [14] - Tuojing Technology expects a net profit increase of 101% to 108% in Q2 2025, driven by new product breakthroughs [15] - Weicheng Bio anticipates a net profit of 30.06 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reversing a loss from the previous year [17] Group 4: Contracts and Strategic Partnerships - State Grid Information won contracts totaling 966 million yuan from the State Grid Corporation [21] - Beizhi Technology signed a contract worth 164 million yuan with a major client [22] - Mould Technology received a project letter of intent for exterior parts with an expected total sales of 2.044 billion yuan [23] Group 5: Shareholding Changes - Huasheng Lithium plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.24% [25] - Yutai Micro's shareholder intends to reduce holdings by up to 3% due to personal funding needs [26] - Alter's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% [27]

Core Viewpoint - Sam's Club has initiated a silent product replacement campaign, removing several exclusive items and replacing them with more common brands, leading to significant backlash from its membership base [1][4][10] Group 1: Product Changes - Sam's Club has quietly removed popular exclusive products such as Taiwanese-style sun cakes and low-sugar egg yolk pastries, replacing them with widely available brands like Orion and Wei Long [1][4] - The new products, including a low-sugar Orion cake, were marketed as improvements, claiming an 80% reduction in sugar and a 30% increase in cocoa content [6][7] Group 2: Member Reactions - Members expressed dissatisfaction, feeling that the quality of products has declined and that the unique selection that differentiated Sam's Club from regular supermarkets is disappearing [4][10] - Many members have voiced their concerns on social media, leading to a trending topic regarding the perceived decline in product quality and selection [4][10] Group 3: Financial Implications - Sam's Club charges an annual membership fee of 260 yuan for regular members and 680 yuan for premium members, with over 500,000 active members in China contributing to significant annual revenue [9] - The average annual spending required to break even on the membership is now estimated at 13,000 yuan, equating to an additional 5.2% "membership tax" on each purchase [9][10] Group 4: Business Model Concerns - The shift in product selection raises questions about the core value proposition of the membership model, as members expect unique products that cannot be found elsewhere [10] - Industry analysts suggest that maintaining a diverse and high-quality product range is essential for sustaining member loyalty and competitive advantage against e-commerce platforms [10]

Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In June, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month, reaching $720.1 billion, reversing a 0.9% decline in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [2][3] - Year-over-year, retail sales grew by 3.9%, up from 3.3% in May, indicating a sustained recovery in consumer spending [2] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and parts, rose by 0.5%, surpassing the expected 0.3% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The retail sector showed a mixed performance, with health and personal care stores seeing a 7.1% year-over-year increase, while gas stations and electronics stores experienced declines of 4.0% and 1.5%, respectively [2][3] - Non-store retailers (online merchants) reported a 4.5% year-over-year sales increase, and food services and drinking places grew by 6.6%, highlighting the ongoing vitality of online and service consumption [2] Group 3: Trade Price Trends - The import price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month in June, ending a 0.4% decline in May, with non-fuel import prices increasing by 0.1% [6][7] - Export prices showed stronger performance, increasing by 0.5% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, marking the highest level since January 2025 [6][7] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The synchronized recovery in retail and trade price data underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amid tariff uncertainties, with strong consumer demand supporting import needs [7] - The long-term low energy prices may suppress investment willingness in related sectors, while ongoing tariff concerns could shift from short-term consumption stimulation to long-term confidence suppression [7]

Core Insights - Beijing's service consumption is active, but the total retail sales of consumer goods (社零总额) are declining, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% in the first half of 2023 [1][5][4] - The overall market consumption in Beijing grew by 0.9% year-on-year, driven by a 4.7% increase in service consumption in sectors like information, transportation, and cultural entertainment [1][7] Consumption Trends - The total retail sales reached 673.42 billion yuan, with a decline in both goods retail (606.16 billion yuan, down 3.8%) and catering revenue (67.26 billion yuan, down 3.6%) [5][6] - Basic living and fashion goods performed well, with sales increases of 13.9% for grain and oil, 36.1% for gold and jewelry, 9.3% for sports and entertainment products, and 7.6% for cosmetics [5][6] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy positively impacted sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, with increases of 4.6% and 3.1% respectively [5] Consumer Spending - Despite the decline in total retail sales, residents' per capita consumption expenditure grew by 2.8%, with urban residents at 2.6% and rural residents at 4.3% [5][6] - The increase in service consumption is significant, with per capita service expenditure rising by 5.2%, accounting for 58.9% of total consumption expenditure [7] Emerging Consumption Patterns - The "it economy" is experiencing rapid growth, with pet-related consumption reaching 77.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.84% [8] - The popularity of niche brands is rising, with 79% of consumers in mainland China accepting these brands, particularly in beauty, fashion, and home goods [8] Policy and Structural Changes - The "Beijing Action Plan for Deepening Reform to Boost Consumption" aims to create an international consumption experience zone and support the establishment of flagship stores and local fashion brands [9] - The market is undergoing a structural adjustment, with service and cultural consumption growing faster than traditional goods consumption, indicating a shift towards a more experience-driven economy [13][14]

尽管特朗普的关税政策已开始产生影响，但美国消费者似乎仍在积极消费。美国6月份零售销售环比增长0.6%，扭转了此前连续两个月的跌势。这一强 劲反弹超出了大部分经济学家的预期，有望缓解市场对消费者支出紧缩的担忧。 此外，零售报告中唯一涵盖服务业的餐饮和酒吧消费也增长了0.6%。 美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，预期 0.1%，前值 -0.9%。 美国6月零售销售(除汽车)环比上涨0.5%，预期值0.3%，前值-0.2%。 美国6月零售销售(除汽车与汽油)环比上涨0.6%，预期值0.3%，前值0%。 值得注意的是，直接计入GDP核算的"控制组"零售销售在6月份也环比增长了0.5%，使得该类别的销售额同比增长4.0%，进一步印证了消费支出的韧 性。 此次强劲的零售销售数据，与此前部分"软数据"调查所反映的悲观情绪形成对比。这或许预示着，消费者实际的支出行为比市场普遍感受到的情绪更为 积极和稳健。 美国国债收益率走升，2年期国债收益率日内上行逾3bp，现报3.921%。 17日，美国商务部公布的数据显示： 投资者和经济决策者正密切关注美国消费者支出能否持续，因为消费支出贡献了美国经济约三分之二的动力，而特朗普的关税政策 ...

Mergers and Acquisitions - Dongfang Yuhong plans to acquire 100% equity of Chilean building materials retailer Construmart S.A. for approximately $123 million [1] Major Asset Restructuring - Hongming Co. has terminated its plan to acquire 83% equity of Shenzhen Chisu Automation Equipment Co. due to failure to reach a final agreement [2] Performance Disclosure - Sumeida reported a net profit of 646 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 12.62%, with total revenue of 55.101 billion yuan, down 1.52% [3] - Jintong Co. reported a net profit of 1.38 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%, with total revenue of 6.959 billion yuan, up 5.55% [4] - Microchip Biotech expects a net profit of approximately 30.06 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 173%, with revenue expected to be around 407 million yuan, up 35% [5] Shareholding Changes - Huasheng Lithium plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.24%, equating to a maximum of 3.567 million shares [6] - Yutai Micro's shareholder Li Haihua intends to reduce his stake by up to 3%, totaling no more than 2.4 million shares [7] - Hongqiang Co.'s controlling shareholder Liu Lianjun plans to reduce his stake by up to 3%, amounting to no more than 6.3478 million shares [8] Legal Issues - Jintong Ling has been prosecuted for financial fraud and false issuance of stocks, accused of providing false financial data for six consecutive years, resulting in significant investor losses [9][10]

金十数据7月17日讯，美国零售销售全面反弹，这可能会缓解部分对消费者支出萎缩的担忧。13个零售 类别中有10个实现增长，其中汽车销量在连续下降后回升，成为主要推动力。零售报告中唯一涵盖的服 务类别的餐饮消费增长0.6%。在消费者健康状况引发的担忧日益加剧之际，周四的报告带来了一些缓 解。今年以来，由于关税可能加剧已持续多年的生活成本压力，美国人对经济和自身财务状况普遍持悲 观态度，不过近期消费者信心有所回升。 美国零售销售全面反弹 缓解支出萎缩担忧 ...

这就是稳定币的力量。 它既不是主权国家发行的，也不属于银行，却连接着硅谷、华尔街、东南亚制造业与中东贸易帝国。 这不是科幻，是现实：2025年中美欧纷纷出手，将稳定币纳入国家金融战略。从金币到纸币，从美元到 稳定币，货币从来都不只是工具。 货币是权力的载体，帝国的信用，竞争的投影。 这背后是时代的趋势——地缘政治逐渐衰退，产缘政治加速崛起，科缘政治开始萌芽。 铸币权，不止是印钞的权利，更是定义交易体系与掌握规则制定权的象征。这一轮稳定币博弈，本质 是"谁来定义下一代全球货币体系"的问题。 "2025年的某个深夜，当全球金融市场都在沉睡时，一笔价值10亿美元的转账悄然完成。没有银行，没 有SWIFT，没有央行批准——只有32个字符的哈希值，证明这笔钱从A地瞬间到达了B地。 当铸币权开始下放，全球竞争的格局吹响稳定币的号角。这个战场，大国博弈，用新的逻辑探索未来： 一个在下放铸币权中拥抱创新，一个尝试现有全球格局的货币突破。 2025，中美时代的铸币权战争拉开序幕。 宏观，中美双极新格局 美国有三个镜像，民主党的美国，共和党的美国，特朗普的美国。 民主党的美国想要继续虹吸人口红利，技术多样化，普天之下莫非王土，星 ...