交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，贸易商商谈为主，个别主流供应商出货，5月主流在09+145~150成交，个别略低在09+140附近，少量略高 在09+155~165附近，价格商谈区间在4695~4740附近。6月中上主港在09+100~110有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+149。中性 2、基差：现货4720，09合约基差138，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.51天，环比增加0.08天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA部分装置陆续落实检修， ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Chitianhua Co., Ltd. reported a challenging financial year for 2024, with a net loss attributed to various operational factors, despite some growth in revenue from its chemical and medical service segments [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of CNY 238,006.12 million in 2024, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY -8,669.35 million [1][19]. - The chemical segment generated revenue of CNY 226,020.86 million, contributing a net profit of CNY 13,086.61 million, while the medical services segment reported a revenue of CNY 10,430.55 million with a net loss of CNY -12,867.21 million [1][3]. - The coal segment saw an increase in production and sales, with a slight rise in prices compared to the previous year [1]. Asset and Liability Overview - As of December 31, 2024, total assets amounted to CNY 483,556.81 million, reflecting a 2.58% increase from the beginning of the year [2][20]. - The company's debt ratio rose to 47.37%, an increase of 3.57% from the previous year [2]. Production and Sales Data - The company sold 66.11 million tons of urea, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, and 32.81 million tons of methanol, up 46.16% [2][29]. - The production of synthetic ammonia, methanol, and urea increased by 7.06%, 42.36%, and 7.98% respectively compared to the previous year [3][29]. Future Outlook - For 2025, the company plans to produce 55.80 million tons of urea and 30 million tons of methanol, with a projected total revenue of CNY 217,830.13 million and a net loss of CNY -7,118.09 million [9][33]. - The company anticipates challenges due to market fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly for urea and methanol, which are influenced by international and domestic conditions [34].

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月9日 | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | | | | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | 5月8日 | 5月7日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 中村 | | | | | | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 0150 | 9200 | -50 | -0.54% | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 860 | 875 | -1.71% | -15 | | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10100 | -0.50% | 10050 | - 50 | 元/吨 | 基差(SI4210基准) | 975 | 960 | -15 | -1.54% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8450 | 8550 | -100 | -1.17% | 基差(新疆) | 960 | 1025 | -65 | -6.34% | ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3831.63 | ↑0.61 | | 2860.1 | | | | | | IF2505 | 3817.2 | ↑0.55 | -14.43 | 328.6 | 28654 | ↑45 | 45962 | ↓707 | | IF2506 | 3785 | ↑0.51 | -46.63 | 638.2 | 56105 | ↑8274 | 141994 | ↑3041 | | IF2509 | 3725.8 | ↑0.47 | -105.83 | 136.8 | 12210 | ↑2796 | 58236 | ↑1900 | ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Domestic Aircraft Manufacturing**: Focus on the C919 aircraft and its potential to replace Boeing's market share in Europe [2][3] - **Military Trade**: Insights into the military trade dynamics between India and Pakistan, and the implications for Chinese military exports [4][5][6] - **Pharmaceuticals**: Discussion on the global sales of semaglutide and its impact on the obesity treatment market [8][9] - **Chemical Industry**: Analysis of the price movements in the chemical sector, particularly ethylene glycol and its derivatives [12][13][14] - **Textiles**: Overview of the textile industry, particularly the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on exports [15] - **Technology and Automation**: Developments in automated equipment and smart transportation solutions [20][21] Core Points and Arguments Domestic Aircraft Manufacturing - The C919 aircraft is expected to capture part of Boeing's market share in Europe due to potential tariffs on Boeing products [2] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) plans to increase C919 production capacity significantly from 75 to 200 aircraft by 2029, a 33% increase compared to 2027 [2] - The Airbus Tianjin assembly line exemplifies successful Sino-European aviation cooperation [2] Military Trade - The escalation of armed conflict between India and Pakistan has implications for military trade, with Pakistan being a major recipient of Chinese military exports [4] - China’s military products have gained a significant market share globally, with Pakistan accounting for over 50% of China's military exports from 2017 to 2024 [4] - Key companies involved in military trade include Aerospace Changfeng and other defense contractors [4][5][6] Pharmaceuticals - Semaglutide has surpassed K drug in global sales, indicating a strong market for obesity treatments [8] - Novo Nordisk reported a 19% increase in net sales, with semaglutide sales growing by 85% [8] - Related companies include Changshan Pharmaceutical and Jin Kai Biotechnology, which are involved in the production of similar drugs [9] Chemical Industry - Ethylene glycol prices have risen by 1.47%, driven by supply constraints and increased demand [12] - Danhua Technology is a key player in the ethylene glycol market, with a production capacity of 132,000 tons [12] - The chemical sector is experiencing a surge due to rising prices of various chemical products [13][14] Textiles - The U.S. Treasury's comments on trade relations may ease the impact of tariffs on textile exports [15] - Huafang Co. has a significant share of the global market for lyocell fabrics, with a focus on sustainable production [15] - The company reported that 40% of its business is linked to the U.S. market, highlighting its international exposure [15] Technology and Automation - Maiwei Co. has developed automated wafer-level hybrid bonding equipment, marking a significant advancement in manufacturing technology [20] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for advanced packaging solutions in the semiconductor industry [20] - Dayang Group's recent announcement regarding the lifting of an investigation by the U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to positively impact its export orders [21] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for increased cooperation between China and Russia in various sectors, including military and technology, was mentioned [18] - The impact of geopolitical tensions on supply chains and market dynamics was highlighted, particularly in the context of the India-Pakistan conflict [10][11] - The importance of maintaining accurate and up-to-date information in rapidly changing market conditions was emphasized throughout the documents [4][5][6][12][15]

南华期货（603093）分析称，从供应端看px的检修依旧在高位，国内的px开工在73%，亚洲开工也在 68%附近，5月浙石化和盛虹等有计划检修，国外五月也仍有降负和检修计划，总体供应不多，但与其 同时，pta的检修也较多，总体px供需仍能保持紧平衡预期，但节日期间原油跌幅明显，单边价格估计 低开，pxn逢低做扩。 5月7日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，对二甲苯期货主力合约开盘报6142.0元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，对二甲苯主力最高触及6362.0元，下方探低6134.0元，涨幅达2.39%。 目前来看，对二甲苯行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于对二甲苯后市行情将如何运行，相关 机构观点汇总如下： 银河期货表示，由于供应方面存在多重变动因素，包括日本装置的意外停车和计划检修，以及国内部分 装置的重启和检修计划，导致PX供需驱动减弱。此外，中东局势紧张增加了供应压力，PX价格预计将 宽幅震荡。 瑞达期货（002961）指出，中东局势急剧升温，国际原油上涨，影响聚酯走势。供应方面，本周国内 PX产量为64.94万吨，环比上周+0.35%。国内PX周均产能利用率77.44%，环比上周+0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Shanghai Fair" is a significant international exhibition platform aimed at cross-border procurement, business negotiations, and brand promotion, showcasing Shanghai's products and services in Japan for the first time [1][2]. Group 1: Event Details - The "Shanghai Fair" will take place on May 8-9, 2025, at Osaka INTEX HALL1, marking it as one of the largest regional overseas exhibitions organized by Shanghai in recent years [2]. - The event is organized by the Shanghai Economic Association, Shanghai Modern Service Industry Association, and Shanghai Public Diplomacy Association, with support from various Japanese organizations [2]. Group 2: Exhibition Scope - The exhibition will cover a wide range of sectors, including BtoC areas such as clothing, electronics, watches, toys, cosmetics, and food and beverages, as well as BtoB sectors like chemical raw materials, new materials, agricultural products, metals, new energy, semiconductors, biomedical and medical devices, and robotics [1][2]. - Over 170 companies and organizations are expected to participate, providing opportunities for attendees to engage with exhibitors [1].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil and chemical indices experienced mixed performance during the trading days from April 28 to April 30, with the chemical raw materials index down by 0.55% and the chemical machinery index up by 0.75% [1] - International crude oil prices showed a downward trend, with WTI settling at $58.29 per barrel, down 7.51% from April 25, and Brent at $61.29 per barrel, down 8.34% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included liquid chlorine up by 54.19% and PTA up by 5.68%, while the top five declining products included coal tar pitch down by 8.95% and WTI down by 7.51% [1] Group 2: Capital Market Performance - The top five performing listed chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets included United Chemical up by 36.56% and Yuzhong Three Gorges A up by 33.16% [2] - The worst-performing listed chemical companies included Xinjin Road down by 26.55% and ST Youfu down by 23.32% [2]

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Analysis - In April 2025, the top 100 real estate companies in China experienced a 9.1% year-on-year decline in sales, indicating ongoing market pressure [2][20] - From January to April 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 1,018.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.8% [3][21] - The sales performance of the top 10 companies showed a year-on-year decline of 11.1%, while the sales of companies ranked 21-30 increased by 3.5% [3][21] Group 2: Key Companies in Real Estate - The five largest real estate companies by sales from January to April 2025 were Poly, China Resources, China Overseas, China Merchants, and Greentown, with sales amounts of 87.61 billion, 68.5 billion, 66.52 billion, 49.78 billion, and 47.72 billion yuan respectively [4][22] - The highest average sales prices per square meter were recorded by Binjiang, Yuexiu, Greentown, Jinyu, and Poly Real Estate, with prices of 39,800, 39,400, 34,100, 30,500, and 27,300 yuan respectively [4][22] - The companies with the highest year-on-year sales growth were China Railway, Huafa, Electric Construction, Yuexiu, and Tie Jian, with growth rates of 55.4%, 49.1%, 49.1%, 37.1%, and 22.7% respectively [4][22] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on short-term valuation recovery opportunities due to policy implementation and long-term investments in leading companies with quality product resources and real estate operation capabilities [5][23] - Recommended companies include Poly Development, New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group, which are expected to benefit from market conditions [5][23] Group 4: Communication Industry Analysis - The report highlights the significant commercial success of Yiyuan Communication in the communication module sector, marking progress in China's communication module industry [9][25] - From 2015 to 2024, Yiyuan Communication's revenue grew from 303 million yuan to 18.594 billion yuan, with net profit increasing from 26 million yuan to 588 million yuan [9][25] - The company has expanded its workforce from under 200 to approximately 6,000 employees during the same period [9][25] Group 5: Market Trends and Opportunities - The global edge AI market is expected to grow explosively, with projections indicating a rise from 321.9 billion yuan in 2025 to 1,223 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 39.6% [13][29] - The integration of AI and IoT is anticipated to provide new growth opportunities and innovation potential, transitioning from a connected world to an intelligent world [13][29] - Yiyuan Communication is well-positioned to capitalize on the development opportunities in the edge AI market [13][30]

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/4/23 | 2025/4/29 | | 2025/4/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/4/23 | 2025/4/29 | | 2025/4/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1340.0 | 1350.0 | 1340.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1322.0 | 1329.0 | 1292.0 | -30.0 | -37.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1340.0 | 1350.0 | 1320.0 | -20.0 | -30.0 | SA01合约 | 1378.0 | 1387.0 | 1369.0 | -9.0 | -18.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1373.0 | 1376.0 | 1352.0 | -21.0 | -24. ...