【今日头条】 财政部、税务总局：烟草企业的烟草广告费和业务宣传费支出 一律不得在计算应纳税所得额时扣除 智通财经获悉，12月29日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于广告费和业务宣传费支出税前扣除有关事项的 公告》。其中提出，对化妆品制造或销售、医药制造和饮料制造(不含酒类制造)企业发生的广告费和业 务宣传费支出，不超过当年销售(营业)收入30%的部分，准予扣除；超过部分，准予在以后纳税年度结 转扣除。烟草企业的烟草广告费和业务宣传费支出，一律不得在计算应纳税所得额时扣除。公告自2026 年1月1日起至2027年12月31日止执行。 智通解读：一般企业的广告费和业务宣传费税前扣除比例为15%(依据《企业所得税法实施条例》第四 十四条)。而上述三类行业可享受30%的扣除比例，翻倍，大幅降低应纳税所得额，从而减轻税负、提 升净利润。超出部分还可无限期向以后年度结转(实务中通常理解为可结转，但需关注具体执行细则)， 进一步增强税务筹划空间。 此次公告延续并明确了对高营销投入行业(化妆品、医药、非酒类饮料)的税收支持政策，显著利好这些 行业的上市公司及中小企业，尤其对依赖品牌推广和市场拓展的企业而言，将有效改善现金流和盈利能 ...

Core Viewpoint - On December 29, COMEX gold experienced a sharp decline, closing at $4350.2 per ounce, a drop of 4.45%, while domestic SHFE gold also fell significantly to 975.80 yuan per gram, down 4.00% [2][6]. Market Dynamics - Despite a decrease in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, these factors did not create a favorable environment for precious metals, as market sentiment dominated trading [2][6]. - Following a strong year-end rebound, both gold and silver markets faced severe sell-offs, with traders cashing in profits leading to a sharp drop in precious metal prices, ending the recent upward trend [2][6]. Price Movements - Spot gold saw an intraday drop of 5%, marking the largest single-day decline since October 21, and this was the second occurrence of such a significant drop this year [2][6]. - Silver's decline was even more pronounced, with an intraday drop reaching 11%, the largest single-day decline since September 2020 [2][6]. Future Outlook - The upcoming holiday period will see the release of the US December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, which may influence gold prices, alongside ongoing geopolitical conflicts that could also impact market conditions [2][6]. - Caution is advised for holding positions during the holiday season due to the potential for increased price volatility in the short term [2][6].

周一白银价格大幅下挫，引发市场对这一贵金属年内惊艳涨势可能失速的担忧。 道琼斯市场数据显示，最活跃白银期货合约暴跌6736美元，跌幅8.7%，收于每盎司70.46美元。这一跌 幅创下该金属自1980年1月22日以来的最大单日跌幅，而就在上周五，白银刚创下历史收盘新高，并录 得史上最大单日涨幅。 白银的暴跌浪潮 "多头今日无疑受到了惊吓，"Kitco高级市场分析师吉姆·怀科夫（Jim Wyckoff）表示。他指出，鉴于白 银市场历史上波动性本就极高，资深金属交易员或许不会对此次暴跌过度恐慌，但如果抛售潮在周四元 旦假期前持续，那些在涨势后期"上车"的个人投资者和投机者可能会保持警惕。 "过去一两周进场的多头目前已处于亏损状态，正在止损离场，"怀科夫在电话采访中说。此外，他表 示，在成熟的牛市中，这类极端价格波动以及多头"燃料耗尽"的情况较为常见。 即便计入周一的暴跌，国际现货白银价格年内涨幅仍达近150%。 近期贵金属需求旺盛推动了白银的涨势，近几个月来，白银正追赶黄金的上涨步伐——黄金价格此前已 受益于全球各国央行的购金行为。 《黄金通讯》（Gold Newsletter）编辑布莱恩·伦丁（Brien Lun ...

Core Viewpoint - Physical silver is becoming the most scarce hard currency, signaling a collapse of trust in "paper promises" from banks, as evidenced by a significant premium for immediate delivery over futures prices [4][5]. Group 1: Trust Collapse - The one-year forward swap rate for silver has plummeted to -7.09%, indicating that buyers are willing to pay a premium to secure physical silver now rather than risk not receiving it later [9][10]. - This situation reflects a phenomenon known as "backwardation," where market participants no longer trust bank-issued delivery notes and prefer holding physical silver [11]. Group 2: Inventory Reality - Contrary to claims of substantial silver reserves in London, only about 6,600 tons of "free-flowing inventory" is available for immediate trading, as most of the stock is locked up by ETFs and long-term buyers [16]. - The limited available inventory poses a significant risk for a market that trades billions daily, suggesting a potential crisis if demand surges [16]. Group 3: Bank Panic - The leasing rate for silver has skyrocketed from a normal 0.5% to an alarming 39%, indicating banks' reluctance to lend out their silver, reflecting a severe shortage [20]. - This spike in leasing rates signals a warning to speculators who are unable to borrow silver to cover their short positions [20]. Group 4: Demand Surge - Silver's role has evolved beyond jewelry; it is now critical for industries such as solar energy and electric vehicles, which are consuming vast amounts of silver [21][24]. - Major industrial demands are driving the need for silver, with significant quantities required for solar panels and electric vehicle batteries [24]. Group 5: Price Forecast - Current silver prices have surpassed $75, with projections indicating a potential rise to $100 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing physical shortages and upcoming export controls in China [27]. - The market is at a historical turning point, with the impending supply constraints likely to push prices higher [27]. Conclusion - In an era where physical assets are paramount, the 7% premium for immediate silver delivery may be just the beginning of a larger financial storm [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the short-term risks facing silver, including tax-driven selling, a strong dollar, margin increases, technical overbought conditions, and copper substitution threats, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on silver due to structural supply-demand imbalances [4][5][17]. Short-term Risks - The primary risk is tax-driven selling, where investors holding significant unrealized gains may sell before December 31 to benefit from long-term capital gains tax rates, leading to potential profit-taking after January 2, 2026 [7]. - The second risk is a strengthening dollar, driven by strong GDP growth data, which typically pressures dollar-denominated commodities [8]. - The third risk involves increased margin requirements announced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which could reduce leverage and speculative demand; current margin levels are at 17%, significantly higher than the peak of 10% during the 2011 silver price crash [9][10]. - The fourth risk is technical overbought conditions, with analysts suggesting that silver is in an overbought state, potentially triggering technical selling; however, the article argues that the price increase is driven by rigid demand from the solar industry rather than mere technical speculation [11]. - The fifth risk is the threat of copper substitution, as solar manufacturers may consider using copper instead of silver due to rising prices, although this transition would take at least four years [13][14]. Market Dynamics - The Bloomberg Commodity Index is set for annual weight rebalancing in January 2026, which may force passive funds to sell approximately 9% of the open interest in silver futures, exacerbating market volatility [16]. - The current spot market shows structural tightness, with significant price discrepancies between spot and futures markets, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [17]. - Investment demand remains robust, with speculative net long positions in silver at 19% of open interest, compared to 31% in gold, suggesting room for further price increases [19]. - The solar industry is projected to significantly increase its silver demand, with expectations of 290 million ounces in 2025 and 450 million ounces by 2030, fundamentally altering the silver market landscape [20].

Market Overview - On December 29, U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.51%, the S&P 500 down 0.35%, and the Nasdaq down 0.5% [1] - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Tesla dropping over 3% and Nvidia falling more than 1% [2] Sector Performance - Gold stocks showed weak performance, with Harmony Gold down over 8%, AngloGold down nearly 7%, Pan American Silver down over 5%, Kinross Gold down over 5%, and Barrick Gold down over 4% [2] - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 0.67%. Notable declines included Dingdong down over 7%, Hilltop down nearly 7%, and Daqo New Energy down over 5%. However, NIO rose over 5%, Baidu increased over 1%, and iQIYI was up over 1% [2] Commodity Market - International oil prices rose significantly, with WTI crude oil futures up $1.05 (1.84%) to $58.08 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures up $1.30 (over 2.14%) to $61.94 per barrel [3] - Precious metals experienced a sharp decline, with COMEX gold futures down 4.45% to $4,350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce. Spot silver fell nearly 9%, while palladium and platinum dropped over 15% and 14%, respectively [3] Silver Market Outlook - As of 2025, silver prices have seen an annual increase of over 185%. Despite a generally optimistic outlook for precious metals, there are concerns about short-term market overheating [3] - Analysts from Heraeus warned that silver and other precious metal prices may decline at least until the first half of 2026, citing high prices weakening demand across various industries [3] - TD Securities' commodity analysts forecast that silver prices will slow to around $40 in the coming year [3]

每经AI快讯，周一（12月29日）纽约尾盘，现货白银跌9%，报72.1445美元/盎司，盘中一度跌至70.543 美元。COMEX白银期货跌7.41%，报71.475美元/盎司。 ...

以下文章来源于笔记财经晨会 ，作者笔记小助手 笔记财经晨会 . 有观点的财经晨会 点击上方 蓝字 "笔记财经晨会" 关注我们 今日金曲：非酋-薛明媛 笔友们早上好！点击上方音频收听详细晨会内容，音频末尾放送今日金曲，也可以留言区点歌哦！ 一、上周热点回顾：精准预判，两大板块轮番大涨 上周我们周一周二连讲了两天海南封关， 海南指数两天大涨11.02% ，周三、周四、周五连讲了三天商业航天， 航天指数三天暴涨13.77% ，说 明我们的晨会还是很有含金量的，欢迎大家在评论区积极讨论！ 二、贵金属板块深度解析：黄金避险，白银实干 近期贵金属市场迎来史诗级行情：白银逼近80美元，黄金站稳4500美元高位。一句话总结核心逻辑： 黄金靠避险稳坐王座，白银凭工业 + 金融双 核驱动疯狂上涨。 （一）黄金：定海神针的三大上涨逻辑 黄金的牛市是传统优势的集中体现，核心驱动力有三： （二）白银：工业引擎加持的"疯狂赛车" 白银涨幅碾压黄金，核心是工业属性+金融属性的双核驱动： 1. 降息预期降低持有成本： 美联储2026年降息预期强烈，无息资产黄金的持有机会成本下降；美元走弱也让黄金对全球买家更具吸引力。 2. 全球央行增持成刚 ...

从人气指标上来看，今天跌停板的数量快速放大了25家，下跌的个股达到了3300多家，这也是情绪在退 潮。另外从人气板块上，有色金属白银这里面也能看到今天高位大跳水，也很大程度上打击了人气。另 外锂电池产业链也有一个利空，所以这个板块能源金属碳酸锂跌的也是非常多的，只有商业航天和机器 人还有点持续性。嗯另外中午的时候数字货币也有一个利好的消息，所以下午把数字货币又再一次拉了 起来，所以最后两天大家还是多找一下板块的结构性机会，然后系统性的大机会可能比较难。 大盘勉强练成了九阳神功，不知道大家的账户有没有9连阳，那么最后还有两个交易日还能不能继续 涨，我告诉你今天我看到了一些不太好的信号，一定要注意一下。和讯投顾魏玉根分析，比如说今天是 冲高回落，高位放量滞涨，高位放量滞涨意味着什么？有人要跑路。啊另外券商连续拉三天之后，啊今 天开始休息了，是跌的，那么银行开始接力开始护盘，但是其他的高股息板块没有同步出手开始护盘， 所以今天也就勉强收红。吧还有一点特别重要的就是a500ETF没有持续在净流入大资金，所以所以a500 指数今天是跌的，那同时带动了沪深300、中证500这些大盘股指数都是跌的，小盘股稍微走强了一点， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a strong upward trend in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, driven by various economic factors [1][2][3][4][5] - Gold prices in London increased by 2.36% to $4449.40 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold rose by 4.70% to ¥1016.30 per gram [1] - Silver prices saw a significant rise, with London spot silver up 8.11% to $69.74 per ounce and SHFE silver up 23.01% to ¥18319 per kilogram [1] - Palladium and platinum also experienced notable increases, with palladium rising 19.60% to $1837 per ounce and platinum up 24.46% to $2208 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The recent increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to expectations surrounding the potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump, who advocates for interest rate cuts during strong economic performance [2] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 reached 4.3%, exceeding expectations, with personal consumption expenditures also showing strong growth [3] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, particularly the Ukraine conflict, remains unresolved, which may influence market stability and investor sentiment [3] Group 3 - In the medium term, the combination of "Trump 2.0" policies and anticipated interest rate cuts is expected to provide strong support for gold prices, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in precious metals [4][5] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added to its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months, reaching 74.12 million ounces by the end of November 2025 [5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the precious metals sector, recommending a focus on specific gold mining companies for investment opportunities [6]