Investment Rating - The report rates the petrochemical industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The petrochemical industry focuses on processing and selling crude oil and natural gas to produce various chemical products, with a significant emphasis on achieving green sustainable development and safe production [4][9] - The establishment of an ESG evaluation system for state-owned enterprises in the petrochemical sector is crucial, particularly in light of national policies aimed at promoting green and low-carbon transitions [4][10] - The ESG evaluation system incorporates specific indicators related to energy transition and safety production, highlighting the importance of environmental and social issues [4][11] Summary by Sections 1. ESG Policies in the Petrochemical Industry - The industry is primarily concerned with sustainable development and safe production, as emphasized by recent national policies [10] - Key policies include the "Action Plan for Accelerating Oil and Gas Exploration and Development and Integration with New Energy (2023-2025)" and guidelines for promoting green innovation in the refining industry [10][11] 2. Construction of the ESG Evaluation System - The ESG evaluation system includes five secondary indicators: "New Energy Business Transformation," "Oil Leak Risk Management," "Public Awareness Investment," "Overseas Community Development," and "Safety Production," all of which are considered positive factors [4][11] - The evaluation system is built on general indicators and includes 18 primary indicators and 45 secondary indicators, with a focus on environmental, social, and governance aspects [4][11] 3. Environmental Indicators - Environmental indicators are aligned with national dual carbon policies and include specific metrics such as "New Energy Business Transformation" and "Oil Leak Risk Management," with a total of 4 secondary indicators and 10 tertiary indicators [13][21] - The report highlights the importance of waste management and biodiversity protection as critical areas of focus for the petrochemical industry [13][14] 4. Climate Change Response Indicators - The climate change response indicators reflect the industry's commitment to managing climate change and adhering to domestic dual carbon policies, comprising 1 primary indicator and 4 secondary indicators [21][22] 5. Social Responsibility Indicators - Social indicators assess the industry's responsibility, particularly in raising public environmental awareness and ensuring safety in production, with 3 primary indicators and 9 secondary indicators [23][24] - The report emphasizes the need for effective training and awareness programs for employees and communities, especially in overseas projects [25] 6. Governance Indicators - Governance indicators are fundamental for sustainable development and include 3 primary indicators and 10 secondary indicators, focusing on corporate governance structures and mechanisms [28][30]

- The diffusion index model tracks industry rotation based on momentum principles, focusing on upward trends in industry performance. It has been monitored for four years, with notable performance in 2021 achieving excess returns of over 25% before a significant drawdown in September due to cyclical stock adjustments. In 2025, the model suggests allocating to industries such as non-ferrous metals, banking, communication, steel, electronics, and power equipment & new energy[22][23][26] - The GRU factor model utilizes minute-level volume and price data processed through GRU deep learning networks. It has shown strong adaptability in short cycles but performs less effectively in long cycles. In 2025, the model's industry rotation includes sectors like agriculture, power & utilities, basic chemicals, transportation, steel, and petrochemicals. Weekly average returns were 2.56%, with excess returns of 1.65% against equal-weighted industry benchmarks. Year-to-date excess returns stand at -4.49%[29][30][32] - Diffusion index weekly tracking shows top-ranked industries as non-ferrous metals (0.991), banking (0.931), power equipment & new energy (0.925), communication (0.92), steel (0.871), and electronics (0.864). Industries with the most significant weekly changes include power equipment & new energy (+0.083), petrochemicals (+0.082), and light manufacturing (+0.078)[23][24][25] - GRU factor weekly tracking ranks industries such as comprehensive (7.22), basic chemicals (3.37), building materials (2.7), transportation (2.36), power & utilities (1.96), and food & beverages (1.94) as top performers. Industries with notable weekly increases include power & utilities, non-bank finance, and basic chemicals[30][33][37]

Group 1 - China's commitment to a higher emission reduction target includes a non-fossil energy consumption share exceeding 30% and a total installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching 360 million kilowatts by 2025, indicating a critical transition period for the energy system over the next decade [1] - As of June 2025, 165 countries have announced carbon neutrality plans, covering 88% of global carbon emissions and over 90% of economic output, highlighting the urgency for green transition [2] - The energy sector's low-carbon transition path includes the development of renewable energy and the reduction of carbon emissions in traditional energy sources, with renewable energy consumption expected to grow by approximately 42% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] Group 2 - The energy industry faces three major pressures in achieving carbon neutrality: the dual pressure of energy supply and emission reduction on thermal power, the contradiction between the scale development of renewable energy and operational pressures, and insufficient innovation in carbon reduction technologies [4][3] - Leading energy companies are proactively embracing the green revolution by integrating renewable energy across the entire supply chain and transitioning to comprehensive suppliers of green energy and chemical products [5] - Major energy companies like State Power Investment Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation are making significant strides in green energy integration and technological innovation, including projects in green hydrogen and clean coal utilization [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has made significant strides in enhancing energy supply capabilities and achieving high-quality energy development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on deep oil and gas exploration, production capacity expansion, and international cooperation [2][3][4]. Group 1: Energy Supply and Production Capacity - Sinopec has achieved record-high oil and gas production, with notable projects such as the revival of the Fuxing Oilfield, which has proven geological reserves of 20.1 million tons of oil and 12.352 billion cubic meters of natural gas [3]. - The company has strengthened its ability to develop difficult-to-extract reserves and improve recovery rates, leading to a steady increase in crude oil production and a significant rise in natural gas output during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. - Sinopec has enhanced its gas storage and regulation capabilities, commissioning 16 gas storage facilities and several LNG tanks over the past five years [4]. Group 2: International Cooperation and Market Expansion - Sinopec has actively participated in the Belt and Road Initiative, establishing oil and gas production bases in countries like Egypt, Angola, and Kazakhstan, and executing numerous exploration and engineering projects [5]. - The company has signed integrated cooperation agreements with Qatar Energy for the North Field expansion project, further solidifying its international partnerships [5]. Group 3: Green Energy Transition - Sinopec has accelerated the development of green energy sources, including hydrogen, solar, and geothermal energy, aiming to transform into a comprehensive energy service provider [6][7]. - The company has launched a large-scale green hydrogen demonstration project in Xinjiang, contributing to carbon reduction efforts [6]. - Sinopec has become the largest geothermal energy company in China, with a clean heating capacity exceeding 12 million square meters [7]. Group 4: Technological Innovation and Digitalization - Sinopec has focused on advancing key technologies and equipment for oil and gas exploration and development, achieving breakthroughs in deep earth exploration and shale oil production [9][10]. - The company has established an industrial IoT system covering all oil and gas fields, enhancing decision-making capabilities through digitalization [10]. - Sinopec's efforts in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology have led to the successful operation of a million-ton CCUS demonstration project, integrating carbon capture with enhanced oil recovery [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various industries, with the power equipment sector showing the highest increase at 4.98%, while the beauty and personal care sector experienced the largest decline at 3.10% [3] - The weekly performance of the 31 industries indicates a general upward trend, with most sectors gaining, particularly power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals [3] - The consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data for October show a rebound, with CPI up 0.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, suggesting a potential market focus on inflation recovery [4] Group 2 - The medium-term market outlook suggests a slow bull market with a positive view on equity market performance, driven by a shift in economic dynamics and a healthier economic structure expected next year [5] - Investment opportunities are identified in technology sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and robotics, while consumer sectors like food and beverage, beauty care, and social services are anticipated to perform well once the fundamentals stabilize [5]

- **Tracking indicators and their calculation** The report uses two indicators: the proportion of large buy order transaction amount and the proportion of net active buy transaction amount. The large buy order transaction amount proportion reflects the buying behavior of large funds. It is calculated by restoring transaction data into buy and sell orders based on transaction sequence numbers, filtering large orders by transaction volume, and computing the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts to the total daily transaction amount. The net active buy transaction amount proportion reflects investors' active buying behavior. It is calculated by identifying whether each transaction is an active buy or sell based on transaction markers, subtracting active sell amounts from active buy amounts, and computing the proportion of net active buy amounts to the total daily transaction amount[7] - **Individual stock tracking** The report provides rankings of stocks based on the 5-day average proportion of large buy order transaction amounts and net active buy transaction amounts. For example, the top-ranked stock for large buy order transaction amount proportion is "海陆重工" with a value of 93.0% and a time-series percentile of 100.0%. Similarly, the top-ranked stock for net active buy transaction amount proportion is "力聚热能" with a value of 21.2% and a time-series percentile of 100.0%[9][10] - **Broad-based index tracking** The report calculates the 5-day average proportions of large buy order transaction amounts and net active buy transaction amounts for major broad-based indices. For instance, the "上证指数" has a large buy order transaction amount proportion of 73.6% (percentile: 66.0%) and a net active buy transaction amount proportion of -4.1% (percentile: 99.6%)[11][12] - **Sector tracking** The report calculates the 5-day average proportions of large buy order transaction amounts and net active buy transaction amounts for various sectors. For example, the "石油石化" sector has a large buy order transaction amount proportion of 78.3% (percentile: 100.0%) and a net active buy transaction amount proportion of 5.0% (percentile: 27.0%)[13] - **ETF tracking** The report ranks ETFs based on the 5-day average proportions of large buy order transaction amounts and net active buy transaction amounts. For example, the top-ranked ETF for large buy order transaction amount proportion is "国泰上证 10 年期国债 ETF" with a value of 93.7% and a time-series percentile of 100.0%. Similarly, the top-ranked ETF for net active buy transaction amount proportion is "国泰上证 10 年期国债 ETF" with a value of 24.7% and a time-series percentile of 84.4%[15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with significant gains in sectors such as storage chips, CPO, gold, and electricity, indicating positive market sentiment and sector performance [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The three major A-share indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.13% and the ChiNext Index up by 0.58%, reflecting a bullish market trend [1] - Institutional investors suggest increasing positions in chemical, non-ferrous, and new energy sectors, as these areas are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI narrative and improving return on equity (ROE) trends [2] - The current market volatility is attributed to changes in the underlying structure of incremental capital, with a shift towards stable absolute return funds reducing the effectiveness of traditional aggressive timing strategies [2] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - According to research, cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials are recommended for investment, driven by expectations of a strong cyclical year ahead [3] - The analysis indicates that the price increase in commodities is linked to historical patterns of PPI rises during significant political events in China and the U.S., suggesting a favorable environment for these sectors [3] - Emphasis is placed on the recovery opportunities in cyclical sectors like steel, chemicals, and building materials, alongside a focus on low-position technology growth areas such as AI software applications and military technology [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The resource sector is anticipated to emerge as a new main investment direction following the technology sector, with a focus on key resources and military applications [5] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a bullish trend into 2026, although with a potential slowdown in growth rates, prompting investors to prioritize fundamental improvements and sector performance [5]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" as a quantitative factor, which aggregates the browsing, watchlist, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000. The value range of this index is [0, 10,000][7] - The "Total Heat Index" is used as a proxy variable for "sentiment heat" at the broader levels of broad-based indices, industries, and concepts. It is calculated by summing up the total heat indices of constituent stocks within each group[7] - A "Broad-Based Index Rotation Strategy" is constructed based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices. The strategy involves buying the broad-based index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week. If the "Other" group has the highest change rate, the strategy remains in cash. The annualized return of this strategy since 2017 is 8.74%, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 38.52% in 2025[13][16] - For industry-level heat, the same methodology is applied to calculate the weekly heat change rate (MA2) for Shenwan Level 1 and Level 2 industries. The report highlights that the Shenwan Level 1 industry with the highest positive heat change rate (MA2) this week is "Oil & Petrochemical," which increased by 48.6% compared to the previous week. The industry with the largest negative heat change rate is "Nonferrous Metals," which decreased by -14.2%[20][27] - At the concept level, the report constructs two simple portfolios: a "Heat TOP Portfolio" and a "Heat BOTTOM Portfolio." The "Heat TOP Portfolio" selects the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within the top 5 concepts with the largest heat change rates. The "Heat BOTTOM Portfolio" selects the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within the same concepts. The "BOTTOM Portfolio" has historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71%, with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 42% in 2025[31][33]

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 decreased from 1.4923% to 1.4677%, a reduction of 2.46 basis points; DR007 fell from 1.4551% to 1.4130%, down 4.21 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 increased by 1.75 basis points [9][13] - The net inflow of funds this week was 7.831 billion, a decrease of 24.527 billion from the previous week. Fund supply was 16.023 billion, while fund demand was 8.192 billion. Specifically, fund supply decreased by 65.002 billion, with net financing purchases down by 21.016 billion and stock dividends down by 12.308 billion [13][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index rose this week, with the electric equipment and new energy sector leading with a weekly increase of 5.11%. Other sectors like steel and oil & petrochemicals also saw slight increases. Conversely, the pharmaceutical and computer sectors led the declines, with decreases of 2.36% and 2.08% respectively [18][21] - The electric equipment and new energy sector received the most net leveraged capital inflow, totaling 2.196 billion, while the electronic sector experienced a net outflow of 2.501 billion [21][24] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most style indices rose this week, with both cyclical and stable styles leading with an increase of 1.85%. The consumer style was the only one to decline, down 0.70%. The growth style was the most active, accounting for 56.88% of the average daily trading volume [32][36] - The main funds in the style sectors were predominantly reduced, with the largest reduction in the growth style amounting to 10.957 billion, followed by the cyclical style with a reduction of 5.597 billion [33][36]