二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 2 日 股指期货：波动加大，内强于外 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周股市整体呈现震荡格局，小盘风格指数表现更弱。板块方面，石油石化、 通信、煤炭涨幅居前；国防军工、电力设备，汽车跌幅居前。上周市场在对大资金政策调控的担忧下开 盘，随后整体驱动不明显，以板块性和结构性题材行情为主。在周初受到大宗商品延续大涨的支撑之下， 贵金属、有色以及能化板块明显强势。随后到周四，贵州茅台大涨，带动上证 50 等权重指数出现明显回 升。周五伴随贵金属大幅震荡，相关品种调整明显，同时带动风险偏好明显抑制，以小市值成长风格为首 的指数出现更明显波动，大盘价值指数则相对稳健。 后期来看，近期行情将继续受海外因素驱动影响。此前基于"米兰报告"(通过关税、军事安全扭转 美元高估，降低美元储备货币责任，缓解美国逆差与财政困难)与货币财政双宽松路径演绎下，市场对信 用货币信心下降，去美元化信仰持续深化，商品定价锚重估。贵金属成为核心替代，且依靠相关品种比价 重估带来牛市扩散。但由于新任美联储主席被冠以鹰派标签，央 ...

01 市场回顾 国内方面，本周A股震荡走弱，主要指数多数收跌。中小盘与成长指数领跌，科创50收跌2.85%、中证500收跌2.56%、中证1000收跌 2.55%，深证成指、创业板指同步走弱；仅上证50收涨1.13%、沪深300收涨0.08%，反映资金向大盘蓝筹避险标的倾斜。国债收益率走势分 化，3-10年期下行，其它期限上行。 商品市场方面，本周贵金属经历史诗级回调，而原油表现延续强势。黄金方面，周初受避险情绪与政策预期的双重推动，金价一路突破绝 对历史高点；后因美联储新任主席提名引发市场获利回吐，美元指数上涨和技术超买修正导致金价短期下跌，机构投资者大量抛售。原油 方面，美伊地缘局势紧张，哈萨克斯坦输油管道因无人机袭击受阻，以及美国寒潮导致原油出口中断，推升油价大涨。 （数据来源：iFinD，日期截至2026年1月30日，指数过往业绩不预示其未来表现，投资需谨慎） 02 行业情况 | | | 全球大类资产本周表现(2026/1/26-2026/1/30) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球指数 | 涨跌幅 | A股领涨行业 | 涨跌幅 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that after two years of valuation recovery in the A-share market, the third year is often difficult to sustain high valuations, with market performance increasingly reliant on profit realization [1] - The report suggests a focus on sectors with visible performance and improved supply-demand structures, particularly in cyclical industries benefiting from global manufacturing recovery and China's competitive manufacturing advantages [1] - The AI industry remains a clear investment theme, but the focus should shift from thematic expansion to performance-driven investments, particularly in areas with supply shortages such as computing power and storage [1] Group 2 - In January, the A-share market exhibited typical spring volatility characteristics, with major indices recording positive returns, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 index which rose by 15.67% [2] - The market's upward momentum was driven by a rapid influx of incremental capital, with average daily trading volume reaching 3.04 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month [3] - Regulatory interventions and global disturbances have led to fluctuations in market risk appetite, causing a slowdown in the pace of index increases [3] Group 3 - In the technology sector, thematic investments initially outperformed, but as margin requirements increased, there was a shift towards sectors with more predictable earnings, such as semiconductors and power equipment [4] - Cyclical assets, particularly in non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, have shown strong performance due to three driving factors: spillover from technology sector growth, supply-side constraints, and external geopolitical factors [4] - The market is expected to exhibit a structural characteristic moving forward, with indices likely to remain volatile and focused on resource, technology, and overseas expansion themes [5][6]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 2026年1月，石油石化指数（中信分类，下同）与基础化工指数涨幅分别为14.9%和10.1%，分别位于中信 分类所有一级行业的第3位和第6位，反映了市场对于化工行业修复的预期。宏观层面来看，PPI数据呈现 积极信号，25年7月以来我国PPI同比降幅持续收窄，25年10月以来我国PPI环比持续改善，显示出工业品 价格端的压力正在释放。同时，中国化工品价格指数（CCPI）近期持续回升。截至1月29日，CCPI指数相 较于2025年年末上涨4.2%。伴随着价格回升，化工企业盈利能力有望得到修复，同时行业景气已进入上 升通道。 化工行业呈现"东升西落"，我国化工企业全球竞争力持续增强 受制于能源成本及环保压力，欧洲企业经营的海外化工产能面临较大的经营压力，部分装置出现减产或关 停。根据欧洲化学工业理事会（Cefic）所发布的报告，2022-2025年期间，欧洲化工行业关闭产能增加6 倍，4年内累计损失产能3700万吨，约占欧洲化工总产能的9%。与此同时，我国化工企业凭借完善的产业 链配套和能源成本优势，出口量实现显著提升。根据海关总署数据，2025年化学原料及化学制品制造业出 口数量指数 ...

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent market downturn was primarily caused by significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with the A-share market showing no clear deterioration in trading sentiment [1][9] - Historical data suggests that the average duration of spring market rallies is 39 trading days, with a maximum increase of 15.8%, while the current rally has lasted 31 days with a 9.8% increase, indicating potential for further upward movement [1][9] - The report categorizes the triggers for the end of spring market rallies since 2010, noting that significant pullbacks often occur when domestic fundamentals decline alongside tightening overseas liquidity or geopolitical shocks [2][13] Group 2 - Evidence of performance recovery for listed companies in 2025-2026 is becoming increasingly clear, with a projected 5.3% year-on-year growth in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [3][15] - The report highlights that the proportion of companies with upward revisions to earnings expectations for 2026 has risen from 65% to 100% since late November 2025, reflecting optimism about corporate profit recovery [3][15] - Industrial profits are expected to show a positive year-on-year growth of 0.6% in 2025, marking the first positive growth since 2022, with stable profit margins being a key support factor [3][15] Group 3 - The report suggests a shift in the funding landscape, with a transition from short-term speculative capital to long-term household deposits, as a significant amount of household savings is set to mature in 2026 [4][21] - There has been a notable outflow of approximately 1 trillion yuan from broad-based ETFs since the beginning of the year, indicating a cooling of short-term speculative money [4][21] - The issuance of public funds has shown a significant recovery, with new public equity products increasing from 22.1 billion yuan in May 2025 to 69.6 billion yuan by January 2026 [4][21] Group 4 - The report emphasizes a focus on sectors with strong earnings growth expectations, particularly cyclical industries, non-bank financials, and technology sectors with solid fundamentals [5][28] - Specific sectors highlighted include non-bank financials, which have seen a 550% increase in the proportion of companies with upward earnings revisions, and cyclical industries such as metals and construction materials, which are expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus and demand-side incentives [5][28] - The report identifies key themes in technology, such as satellite navigation and commercial aerospace, which are projected to have significant earnings growth in 2026 [5][28]

Group 1 - The market sentiment indicator as of January 30 is at 2.6, a slight increase from 2.35 the previous week, indicating overall stability in sentiment with a bullish model perspective [2][9]. - The price-volume consistency indicator remains high, suggesting a strong correlation between market attention and stock price movements, reflecting an active market sentiment [13][16]. - The trading volume of the entire A-share market increased by 9.44% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 30,632.46 billion yuan, indicating a slight recovery in market activity [19]. Group 2 - The short-term score rankings show that the oil and petrochemical, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and communication sectors are leading, with both oil and petrochemical and construction materials scoring 98.31, the highest among sectors [43][44]. - The industry crowding indicator shows a positive correlation with weekly price changes, with high crowding sectors like oil and petrochemical leading in gains, while low crowding sectors like commercial retail and environmental protection lag behind [46][50]. - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI showing a rapid decline relative to the 20-day RSI, suggesting potential weakening of signals in the near term [43][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysts are optimistic about the equity market in February with a balanced style, while the bond market has an increased risk of adjustment [2][7]. - The marginal expansion of the real - sector balance sheet in February is highly certain, and the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is low [2]. - In the context of the marginal convergence of the national balance sheet, the top - down subjective allocation strategy focusing on position selection and style analysis will gain more attention and favor from the market [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Asset - Liability Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In December 2025, the real - sector liability growth rate was 8.4% (previous value 8.6%). It is expected to drop to around 8.3% in January 2026, rebound slightly in February, and decline in March. The capital market tightened marginally last week. There is a risk of significant tightening in February, but the probability is not high [2][17]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 235.3 billion yuan (higher than the planned 141.3 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 721.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of December 2025 was 12.4% (previous value 13.1%), expected to rebound to around 12.6% in January 2026 and likely decline in February [3][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds decreased, the price increased, and the term spread narrowed. The one - year Treasury bond yield ended at 1.30% on the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%, and there may be a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 51 basis points [3][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in December 2025 continued to run smoothly compared to November. The full - year real economic growth target in 2025 was around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target was around 4.9%. It needs further observation whether 5% will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has been in a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which may have ended in Q4 2024, followed by a low - level narrow - range oscillation in the profit cycle. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016: stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, financial institutions benefiting the real economy, and "housing is for living in, not for speculation." Currently, the convergence of the liability side has not ended, but the space is limited [6][20]. - Last week, the capital market tightened marginally, the overall equity market declined, but value stocks strengthened. The long - end bond yield decreased slightly, and the short - end increased. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness slightly favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81%, the one - year increased by 2 basis points to 1.30%, and the 30 - year remained stable at 2.29% [7][21]. - In February, the analysts are optimistic about the equity market with a balanced style and believe that the bond market has little investment value. They recommend a 50% position in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and a 50% position in the China Securities 1000 Index [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.09%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, automobiles, computers, and comprehensive industries had the largest declines [30]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding - out and Trading Volume - As of January 30, the top five crowded industries were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, and communication, with crowding - out degrees of 15.9%, 10.3%, 9%, 6.4%, and 6.2% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, social services, environmental protection, and steel, with 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively [31]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding - out were non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, media, and communication. The top five with decreased crowding - out were power equipment, national defense and military industry, electronics, automobiles, and machinery [31]. - As of January 30, non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics had relatively high crowding - out quantiles since 2018, while pharmaceutical biology, transportation, light industry manufacturing, beauty care, and non - bank finance had relatively low quantiles [31]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 3.06 trillion yuan, up from 2.8 trillion yuan last week. Petroleum and petrochemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, coal, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, while national defense and military industry, automobiles, household appliances, commercial retail, and power equipment had the largest declines [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE(TTM) of petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, coal, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverage had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, computers, automobiles, and comprehensive industries had the largest declines [37]. - As of January 30, 2026, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, power, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [38]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: It showed mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.5 in December to 50.4, and most of the disclosed PMI data of economies in January increased. The CCFI index fell 2.74% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 13.4% in December and 33.9% in January. Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 15.8% in November to 23.9% in December [42]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price increased last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries declined from September to October 2025, increased from November to December, and slightly declined in January. Automobile sales were weaker than the historical seasonality, new - home sales remained at the historical low, and second - hand home sales were stronger than the historical seasonality [42]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of January (January 26 - 30), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% quantiles of weekly returns were 2.3%, 1.1%, 0.4%, and - 0.6% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.08% [59]. - As of January 30, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 4.04 trillion yuan, up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating due to the current geopolitical risks and potential for price recovery in the medium to long term [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent surge in oil prices reflects geopolitical risk premiums, particularly due to ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which significantly impact global oil supply security [4][7]. - It is anticipated that oil prices will exhibit characteristics of being "geopolitically driven with fundamental support" around the Chinese New Year, with potential further increases if conflict expectations materialize [7]. - The medium to long-term outlook suggests a return to fundamental pricing logic as the oil supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, limiting upward price movement without sustained geopolitical conflict [7]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of January 30, Brent crude oil futures closed at $70.69 per barrel, a 7.30% increase from the previous week, while WTI futures rose by 6.78% to $65.21 per barrel [15]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 424 million barrels, down 2.296 million barrels week-on-week, which is 3% lower than the five-year average [17]. - The report notes a trend of increasing oil service activity, with drilling day rates remaining stable despite low levels, indicating potential for future increases as global capital expenditures rise [15][35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products fell to $9.40 per barrel, a decrease of $2.69 from the previous week [54]. - The report indicates that while refining profitability has improved, the current product price differentials remain low, with expectations for gradual improvement as economic recovery progresses [51]. Polyester Sector - The report observes an increase in PTA profitability, with prices rising to 5,271.4 CNY per ton, a 4.66% increase week-on-week [1]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is deemed average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures and competitive advantages [1][10]. - It also suggests maintaining a neutral outlook on oil companies, with a focus on those offering high dividend yields, such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - The A-share market is expected to experience a short - term correction, while the mid - term performance depends on economic and policy efforts. A long - term and stable bull market also requires fundamental support [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. One - week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next - week View**: The stock market faces short - term adjustment pressure. The recent sharp correction will calm the market, and the weakening PMI in January indicates that the domestic economic recovery is still full of twists and turns [10] - **This - week Key Events**: - On January 26, Premier Li Qiang held a symposium to listen to opinions on the "Government Work Report" [11] - On January 27, it was announced that the industrial enterprise profits in December 2025 increased by 5.3% year - on - year [12] - On January 29, Chinese leaders met with the British Prime Minister, and both sides agreed to develop a long - term and stable comprehensive strategic partnership [13][14] - On January 29, the State Council issued a plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [15] - On January 30, it was reported that in December 2025, China had a goods trade surplus of 853.3 billion yuan and a service trade deficit of 96.6 billion yuan [16] 2. One - week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From January 26 to January 30, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 0.65%, with emerging markets (+1.80%) > developed markets (+0.50%) > frontier markets (-0.13%). The South Korean stock market rose 8.0%, while the Canadian stock market fell 2.03% [17] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From January 26 to January 30, Chinese equities declined. In terms of different markets, Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.0636 trillion yuan, a decrease of 264.4 billion yuan compared with last week. Most of the A - share broad - based indexes fell, with the Shanghai 50 Index rising 1.13% and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index falling 3.59% [20] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most of the global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the energy industry leading (+4.16%) and the optional consumption industry having the largest decline (-1.33%). In the Chinese market, the energy industry had the largest increase (+6.42%), and the optional consumption industry lagged (-4.21%) [23] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among the A - share CITIC primary industries, 10 rose (20 last week) and 20 fell (10 last week). The petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest increase (+6.92%), and the national defense and military industry had the largest decline (-7.60%) [24] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles**: The large - cap value style outperformed this week [29] - **Overview of Index Futures Basis**: Information about the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months is provided [30][33] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast - **Broad - based Index Valuation**: The report provides the PE and PB of various broad - based indexes this week, their eight - year percentile, and the changes compared with the beginning of the year [40] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: The report provides the PE and PB of various primary industries this week, their eight - year percentile, and the changes compared with the beginning of the year [41] - **Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300 decreased slightly this week, while the ERP of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased slightly [42][47] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - based Indexes**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 8.35%, and in 2026 to 9.63%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 25.66%, and in 2026 was raised to 23.00%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 27.37%, and in 2026 was raised to 24.03% [48] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the 10 - year Treasury yield declined, the 1 - year yield rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 97.1, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.96 [57] - **Trading - type Capital Tracking**: The average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 50.6 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 14.7 billion yuan [56] - **Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs**: The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 51.8 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 51.8 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 13.2 billion shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.2 billion shares [61][65] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - **Supply Side**: The tire operating rate recovered after the Spring Festival [67] - **Consumption Side**: The second - hand housing transactions increased seasonally [73] - **Inflation Observation**: The prices of production materials declined, while the prices of agricultural products rebounded [83]