各位朋友，收盘了。我是帮主郑重。如果你只盯着涨幅榜，会觉得今天是个大牛市——中国铝业涨停创 下16年新高，中国海油也续写历史，整个资源板块热火朝天。但如果你看一眼全市场，心可能就凉了半 截：超过3600只股票下跌，创业板翻绿，多数人手里拿的科技、医药股都在调整。这种"一花独放，百 花凋零"的极端行情，到底在演哪一出？是机会还是陷阱？帮主用二十年经验告诉你，这恰恰是行情进 入关键分水岭的典型特征，看懂它，才能决定明天是该冲锋还是该防守。 我们先说这朵"独放的花"——以有色金属为核心的资源股。中国铝业能走出16年新高，这绝不是游资炒 一把就走那么简单。它背后是三重坚硬的逻辑在支撑：第一，是全球"再通胀"和美元波动的宏观叙事， 资金在寻找实体资产的庇护；第二，是新能源、高端制造对铜、铝、稀土等金属的 "新需求故事" ，给 了传统周期行业新的成长想象；第三，也是最关键的一点，是它们之前被市场遗忘太久，估值躺在底 部，一旦逻辑被认同，就形成了巨大的 "估值修复"势能。这波行情，有根基。 但为什么"百花"会凋零呢？核心在于两个字："抽血"。现在的市场，不是一个增量资金汹涌而入的牛 市，而是一个存量甚至缩量博弈的战场。上午 ...

快手-W(01024)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.51%，报82.35港元，成交额29.05亿港元。 消息面上，据晚点此前独家调研数据，快手旗下可灵AI的月活跃用户数在2026年1月已突破1200万；截 至2026年1月20日，可灵App端付费用户规模环比增长达350%，1月的日均收入较12月日均高出约30%。 2025年，可灵全年收入预计将达到1.4亿美元，远超快手在2025年初定下的6000万美元收入目标。而最 近刚刚上市的大模型公司Minimax 旗下同类型产品海螺 AI 2025 年1月-9 月的收入为1746万美元，该公 司现总市值已超1500亿港元。 瑞银认为，可灵正在逐步突破专业用户圈层，向更广泛的大众用户渗透。该行认为，这一趋势有助于进 一步扩大用户基数，并提升商业化的规模化能力。瑞银将2026年可灵收入预测上调至23亿元人民币，同 比增长128%。招商证券国际也表示，若AI促进商业化变现得到进一步变现，快手主业有望迎来重估。 现快手旗下可灵的市场估值普遍为20-30倍市销率，相较港股上市同业及美国领先AI公司具有吸引，且 可灵具有客观收入规模和高速增长。 ...

市场回顾 上周A股主要指数涨跌不一，量能维持高位。 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2026/1/19-2026/1/23 12月固定资产投资累计同比增速12月继续下滑至-3.8%。同样低于市场预期。分项看，三大主要分项投 资增速均继续下滑：房地产开发投资累计同比-17.2%（当月同比-35%），广义基建累计同比-1.48%（当 月同比-16.01%），制造业累计同比0.6%（当月同比-10.55%），后续，基建投资仍将以两重项目和新兴 产业项目为主，低基数下有望逐渐企稳。而制造业可能继续受到反内卷政策的压力。市场对于地产政策 出台的预期有所增加。 投资三大项承压 A股主要指数周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2026/1/19-2026/1/23 申万一级行业周涨跌幅（%） 股市策略展望 上周综述 市场上周分化明显，资金面层面，市场量能高位震荡，融资水平略下降。 宏观数据分析 2025四季度经济数据：实际GDP同比增速继续下滑0.3个百分点到4.5%，全年增速5%，符合市场预期。 按支出法看，净出口对经济增长的贡献有上升（1.4%-1.2%），而投资和消费对经济的贡献均有所下 降。此外，累计城镇居 ...

消息面上，据晚点此前独家调研数据，快手旗下可灵AI的月活跃用户数在2026年1月已突破1200万；截 至2026年1月20日，可灵App端付费用户规模环比增长达350%，1月的日均收入较12月日均高出约30%。 2025年，可灵全年收入预计将达到1.4亿美元，远超快手在2025年初定下的6000万美元收入目标。而最 近刚刚上市的大模型公司Minimax 旗下同类型产品海螺 AI 2025 年1月-9 月的收入为1746万美元，该公 司现总市值已超1500亿港元。 瑞银认为，可灵正在逐步突破专业用户圈层，向更广泛的大众用户渗透。该行认为，这一趋势有助于进 一步扩大用户基数，并提升商业化的规模化能力。瑞银将2026年可灵收入预测上调至23亿元人民币，同 比增长128%。招商证券国际也表示，若AI促进商业化变现得到进一步变现，快手主业有望迎来重估。 现快手旗下可灵的市场估值普遍为20-30倍市销率，相较港股上市同业及美国领先AI公司具有吸引，且 可灵具有客观收入规模和高速增长。 智通财经APP获悉，快手-W(01024)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.51%，报82.35港元，成交额29.05亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is launching a new Spring Festival red envelope activity through its AI application Yuanbao, offering up to 1 billion yuan in cash to users, aiming to replicate the success of the WeChat red envelope phenomenon from 2015 [1][2][5] Group 1: Yuanbao's Red Envelope Strategy - The 1 billion yuan cash red envelope initiative is expected to positively impact user growth and engagement for Yuanbao, although replicating the past success of WeChat's red envelope remains uncertain [5] - The original WeChat red envelope's success was closely tied to the cultural significance of the Spring Festival, which included elements of surprise and gamification, aspects that Yuanbao may lack [5][10] - Yuanbao is introducing a new feature called "Yuanbao Club," which aims to enhance social interaction within the app, reflecting Tencent's strategy to leverage social elements to boost Yuanbao's appeal [7][12] Group 2: Competitive Landscape in AI - The AI application market is becoming increasingly competitive, with other major players like Baidu and ByteDance also launching significant cash red envelope campaigns to attract users [16][18] - Baidu has announced a 500 million yuan red envelope initiative, while ByteDance is investing heavily in its AI offerings, indicating a fierce battle for user acquisition in the AI sector [16][18] - Tencent's Yuanbao is currently lagging behind competitors in terms of user engagement, with a significant gap in monthly active users compared to leading AI applications [18][21] Group 3: Investment and Resource Allocation - Since 2025, Tencent has heavily invested in Yuanbao, with cumulative spending nearing 6 billion yuan by July 2025, and it continues to integrate Yuanbao into its extensive ecosystem of applications [22][25] - Despite substantial investment and resource allocation, Yuanbao has not achieved the rapid growth seen by competitors, raising questions about its product differentiation and market strategy [26][30] - The product's reliance on DeepSeek for its AI capabilities has led to a lack of brand independence, which may hinder user loyalty and retention [28][29]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] Industry Overview - Wall Street is investing hundreds of billions into AI technologies, but there is a critical question regarding the energy supply needed to sustain this growth [2] - AI technologies, particularly data centers for large language models, consume vast amounts of electricity, comparable to the energy needs of small cities [2] - The energy demands of AI are expected to increase, leading to potential strain on power grids and rising electricity prices [2] Company Insights - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the anticipated surge in energy demand from AI data centers [3][7] - This company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for electricity, which is becoming a vital commodity in the digital age [3] - The company is involved in U.S. LNG exportation, which is expected to grow under the current administration's energy policies [7] - It is noted that this company is debt-free and has significant cash reserves, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization [8] - The company also holds a substantial equity stake in another AI-related venture, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth opportunities in the AI sector [9] Market Position - The company is described as undervalued, trading at less than seven times earnings, which is attractive given its critical role in the energy and AI sectors [10] - It is suggested that this company is gaining attention from hedge fund managers who recognize its potential for significant returns [9][10] Future Outlook - The ongoing developments in AI, energy infrastructure, and tariffs are expected to create a supercycle that will benefit this company [14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is anticipated to drive rapid advancements and innovation, further solidifying the importance of investing in AI-related companies [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) as a leading platform for AI companies, highlighting a significant shift from traditional sectors to technology-driven firms, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries [6][9][12]. Group 1: IPO Trends and Market Dynamics - Wall Street's IPO market has seen a drastic decline from approximately 310 billion HKD in 2021 to just over 100 billion HKD in 2022, a drop of about 65% [6]. - In 2023, the HKEX recorded only 68 IPOs, raising around 46 billion HKD, marking the lowest level since 2013 [6]. - The first two weeks of 2026 witnessed an unprecedented AI IPO wave, with companies like Wallran Technology experiencing a 2348 times oversubscription and raising 130 billion HKD [9]. Group 2: Financial Performance of HKEX - The HKEX reported a 41% increase in major business revenue from 14,542 million HKD in 2024 to 20,438 million HKD in 2025 [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 45%, from 9,270 million HKD in 2024 to 13,419 million HKD in 2025 [10]. - The EBITDA for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 17,164 million HKD, a 48% increase compared to the previous year [10]. Group 3: AI Companies and Their Financial Needs - AI companies often have R&D expenditures that are several times their revenue, with companies like Zhipu spending over eight times their revenue on R&D in the first half of 2025 [11]. - Wallran Technology's revenue surged from less than 500,000 HKD in 2022 to over 300 million HKD in 2024, but its R&D expenses reached 830 million HKD, indicating a cash burn situation [11]. - The need for continuous funding is critical for AI companies, as they require a sustainable capital pool to support ongoing operations and development [12]. Group 4: Advantages of HKEX for AI Companies - The HKEX has adapted its listing rules to accommodate frontier technology companies, allowing unprofitable firms to list if they have technological barriers and top-tier capital backing [13][14]. - The minimum market capitalization requirements for companies have been lowered, benefiting many AI firms [13]. - The HKEX's approval process has been streamlined, reducing the time from 8-12 months to 4-6 months, enhancing its attractiveness for tech firms [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - The article suggests that the HKEX will continue to attract more technology-focused companies, with several AI and semiconductor firms already in the pipeline for IPOs [16]. - The success of AI companies is paradoxical; as they succeed, they require more capital, which may lead to prolonged periods of unprofitability [17]. - Investors are betting on the potential of AI companies, despite uncertainties regarding their profitability and market sustainability [18].

1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Fundamental Analysis - Based on fundamental factors, the trend of some commodities is judged. For example, the trend of red dates and eggs is bearish, while the trend of synthetic rubber is bullish [4]. Quantitative Analysis - Based on quantitative indicators, the trends of some commodities such as soybeans and zinc are judged to be bearish, while the trends of methanol and rubber are judged to be bullish [9]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro News - UK Prime Minister Starmer will visit China from January 28 - 31, and high - level meetings will be held to discuss bilateral relations [11]. - Trump's remarks on the US dollar caused the US dollar index to fall by more than 1%, reaching a new low in nearly four years [11]. - A new round of price hikes in the global chip industry, with significant price increases from companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, and domestic companies also raising prices [12]. - The AI assistant Clawdbot has become popular overseas, and domestic AI models are also booming [12]. - In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing a three - year decline [13]. - The impact of the Indian Nipah virus on China is relatively small, and no cases have been found in China [13]. - China's first interstellar navigation college was officially established [13]. - In 2025, the bank wealth - management market increased by more than 3.3 trillion yuan, while small and medium - sized banks' self - operated wealth management faced scale reduction or elimination [13]. - US population growth slowed down in 2025 due to a significant slowdown in immigration [14]. - Trump decided to raise tariffs on South Korean products from 15% to 25% [14]. - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement [14]. - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to a new low since 2014 [14]. - Some customers in futures trading were restricted for suspected irregularities [15]. - Citigroup and Deutsche Bank believe that gold may reach $6000 per ounce [15]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The upward trend of IC/IM may continue, and trend - following strategies are recommended. The A - share market showed an oscillating upward trend, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap stocks [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - It is recommended to wait and see. The capital market has loosened, but the cost of funds is still relatively high, and the central bank's monetary policy is turning loose [19]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - The black market will remain in an oscillating trend. Steel will be in an oscillating and consolidating state in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be short - sold on rallies [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the production changes in coal mines and the procurement progress of downstream enterprises [23]. Ferroalloys - Silicon iron is recommended to be bought on dips in the medium term, and for manganese silicon, it is recommended to hold short positions established at high levels and wait and see [24]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the production changes of the supply side of soda ash and glass [25]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see or re - enter short positions. The domestic zinc inventory has decreased, but the upward movement of precious metals may be restricted, which may drive the non - ferrous metal sector down [27]. Lead - It is recommended to wait and see and continue to hold short positions. The social inventory of lead has reached a new high in nearly two months [28]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate may move up after a short - term correction, with wide - range oscillations [30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will operate in an oscillating manner, and opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound should be awaited. Polysilicon will continue to operate in an oscillating manner, and the anti - monopoly and anti - over - competition rectification plan should be awaited [31]. Agricultural Products Cotton - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading. The short - term supply of cotton is loose, but the long - term supply may decrease, and there are contradictions between pre - festival replenishment and declining downstream production [33]. Sugar - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. Domestic sugar is under pressure from supply and weak demand during the peak season [36]. Eggs - A bearish view is recommended for the current position. The pre - festival egg inventory may peak and weaken, and the futures price has limited upward space [39]. Apples - The futures price may run strongly. The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints, and the price will oscillate in a range [40]. Corn - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to the port collection situation. The corn price is stable in the short term, and the possibility of a sharp decline before the Spring Festival is low [41]. Red Dates - The red date market will oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales situation in the peak consumption season [43]. Pigs - Pay attention to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price, and look for opportunities to short the near - month contracts on rallies [44]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - There is a risk of short - term market fluctuations. The supply of crude oil is in surplus, but geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium [46]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will fluctuate with the price of crude oil. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the current focus is on geopolitical factors [48]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and are weak in terms of supply - demand. Although the upstream is in a state of large losses, the rebound space is limited due to the expected new - capacity release [48]. Rubber - It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. The fundamentals are stable, and pay attention to the inventory changes and downstream procurement [48]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to buy on dips. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of the year, and the price of synthetic rubber may remain strong [48]. Methanol - It is recommended to take a bearish view on the short - term correction. The supply - demand situation of methanol has improved, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month [48]. Caustic Soda - A bearish view is recommended for the near - month contracts, and a bullish view for the far - month contracts. The caustic soda market has high inventory and low profit, but there may be a turnaround in the far - month [50]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt will fluctuate with the price of crude oil and is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical factors and raw - material price changes [51]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to consider rolling long - buying at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts. The near - term fundamentals of the polyester industry chain are weak, but the cost side provides strong support [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG will remain strong in the short term, but pay attention to the negative feedback from the demand side. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and try short - selling on rallies in the long term [53]. Pulp - The pulp market will have large intraday fluctuations. The spot market has weakened, but there is support from the long - term external price. It may oscillate and strengthen if the commodity sentiment improves [54]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are oscillating and strong, and the spot price has stabilized. The futures price is expected to be oscillating and strong with the improvement of commodity sentiment [55]. Urea - Urea futures are expected to be oscillating and strong. The spot market is stable, and pay attention to the improvement of future liquidity [55].

总部在杭州的与光同尘，与广西缘分不浅。2025年7月，AI赋能千行百业超级联赛启动仪式上，一 则名为《AI for ALL》的AI宣传短片将现场众人带入AI时代，引发"AI会如何改变人类生活的思考"。而 这则2分钟串起广西人工智能产业发展未来的AI短片，就是出自与光同尘的手笔。 "那天之后，自治区主要领导诚挚邀请我们来广西落地发展。当年10月，广西分公司就正式落户南 宁。"与光同尘公司总经理李沐翰表示，公司在杭州有专业研发团队，如今又将国内AIGC先进技术带到 广西，在广西完成内容生产制作后，再将AI影视作品和制作技术推广应用到越南等东盟国家，这完全 符合广西人工智能产业发展路径，公司落地广西后发展前景可期。 目前，与光同尘与东盟国家的合作基本覆盖从内容创作到产业升级的多个环节，并与越南、马来西 亚、泰国等多个东盟国家在广告制作、电影拍摄、短剧创作等内容的创作上达成共识。"在越南，当地 制作团队利用我们的平台高效生成符合本土审美的广告素材，降低制作成本；而在马来西亚，AI技术 辅助创作者快速实现视觉构想，降低影视创作门槛。"李家乐认为，这些应用不仅提升了影视内容产出 的效率与质量，也使更多富有地域特色的文化表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of Moonshot AI's new model Kimi K2.5, highlighting its advanced capabilities in visual and coding integration, which significantly enhances user experience and productivity in various tasks [10][12][81]. Group 1: Kimi K2.5 Features - Kimi K2.5 integrates visual and text functionalities, allowing users to generate web pages with advanced animations and visual edits through simple commands [17][18]. - The model has achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) results in various high-difficulty tests, outperforming even some top proprietary models [19]. - Kimi K2.5 offers four operational modes: Quick, Thinking, Agent, and Agent Swarm, catering to different user needs and task complexities [21][23]. Group 2: Visual and Coding Capabilities - The model can generate code from images and modify existing code through visual inputs, making it user-friendly and efficient for non-experts [30][34]. - Kimi K2.5 can autonomously generate aesthetically pleasing designs and layouts based on minimal user input, demonstrating a significant improvement in design quality compared to previous AI outputs [56][58]. Group 3: Agent Swarm Technology - The Agent Swarm feature allows multiple independent agents to collaborate on complex tasks, significantly improving efficiency and reducing the time required to complete projects [64][76]. - This technology enables Kimi K2.5 to handle tasks that would traditionally take weeks in just minutes, showcasing its potential for transforming productivity in various industries [78][79]. Group 4: Market Implications - The advancements in Kimi K2.5 position it as a competitive tool in the AI landscape, particularly in the productivity software sector, where it is recognized by major companies like Microsoft [82]. - The article suggests that Kimi K2.5 empowers users by simplifying complex tasks, allowing them to focus on decision-making rather than execution [84][85].