Group 1: Report Core Information - **Report Type**: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - **Report Date**: December 25, 2025 [1] - **Research Team**: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - **Data Source**: MYSTEEL [2] Group 2: Spot Market Information Australian Mainstream Iron Ore - Newman powder: The latest price is 788, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4; the discounted futures price is 843.3; the import profit is 14.69 [1] - PB powder: The latest price is 791, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4; the discounted futures price is 842.3; the import profit is -17.75 [1] - Macarthur powder: The latest price is 786, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 6; the discounted futures price is 858.5; the import profit is 40.00 [1] - Jinbuba powder: The latest price is 744, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4; the discounted futures price is 836.6; the import profit is 35.20 [1] - Mixed powder: The latest price is 734, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 5; the discounted futures price is 872.5; the import profit is 4.79 [1] - Super Special powder: The latest price is 673, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of -2; the discounted futures price is 893.1; the import profit is -11.80 [1] - Carajás powder: The latest price is 870, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; the discounted futures price is 802.8; the import profit is -35.72 [1] Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore - Brazilian mixed ore: The latest price is 827, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 2; the discounted futures price is 834.1; the import profit is -3.30 [1] - Brazilian coarse ore IOC6: The latest price is 755, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of -2 [1] - Brazilian coarse ore SSFG: The latest price is 760, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of -2 [1] Other Iron Ore - Ukrainian concentrate: The latest price is 875, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 10; the discounted futures price is 945.2 [1] - 61% Indian powder: The latest price is 733, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4 [1] - Karara concentrate: The latest price is 875, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 10; the discounted futures price is 895.1 [1] - Roy Hill powder: The latest price is 778, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4; the discounted futures price is 856.3; the import profit is 36.19 [1] - KUMBA powder: The latest price is 850, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4; the discounted futures price is 829.5 [1] - 57% Indian powder: The latest price is 608, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of -2 [1] - Atlas powder: The latest price is 729, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 5 [1] Domestic Iron Ore - Tangshan iron concentrate: The latest price is 976, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 7; the discounted futures price is 863.0 [1] Group 3: Futures Market Information Dalian Commodity Exchange - i2601 contract: The latest price is 798.0, with a daily change of 1.5 and a weekly change of 9.5; the inter - monthly spread is -40.0, with a daily change of 4.8, a weekly change of -1.5, and a monthly change of -9.5 [1] - i2605 contract: The latest price is 779.5, with a daily change of 1.0 and a weekly change of 11.5; the inter - monthly spread is 18.5, with a daily change of 23.3, a weekly change of -1.0, and a monthly change of -11.5 [1] - i2609 contract: The latest price is 758.0, with a daily change of 1.5 and a weekly change of 12.5; the inter - monthly spread is 21.5, with a daily change of 44.8, a weekly change of -1.5, and a monthly change of -12.5 [1] Singapore Exchange - FE01 contract: The latest price is 104.37, with a daily change of -0.39 and a weekly change of 1.82; the inter - monthly spread is -3.96, with a daily change of -33.4, a weekly change of 2.1, and a monthly change of -0.9 [1] - FE05 contract: The latest price is 102.53, with a daily change of -0.28 and a weekly change of 2.05; the inter - monthly spread is 1.84, with a daily change of -36.8, a weekly change of -0.8, and a monthly change of 1.7 [1] - FE09 contract: The latest price is 100.41, with a daily change of -0.34 and a weekly change of 2.00; the inter - monthly spread is 2.12, with a daily change of -41.9, a weekly change of -1.3, and a monthly change of 1.6 [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being slightly weaker. The current situation is weakly stable, and the ore price will move in an oscillatory manner [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not improved. Demand continues to weaken and steel mills' profitability has not improved, keeping the weak pattern. The supply remains high, but there are positive factors like the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. The ore price will continue to face pressure but also has resistance to decline, and will continue to oscillate at a high level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) trend is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is slightly weaker. The overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the current pattern is weakly stable, leading to oscillatory movement of the ore price [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand situation is unfavorable, with demand weakening continuously and steel mills' profit not improving, which keeps the pressure on the ore price. The positive factors are the pre - holiday restocking expectation and the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market. Although the domestic port arrival and miners' shipments have decreased month - on - month, they are still at a high level within the year, and the overseas ore supply is active. The overall supply remains high, and under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic environment, highlighting the Chinese central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the recent adjustments in the Beijing housing market to support home purchases by non-local families and families with multiple children [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the agriculture sector lagged behind. The market turnover reached 1.90 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 14.859 billion yuan to 25,145.96 billion yuan [2][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment, with the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut likely to enhance global capital flow and risk appetite [2][12]. Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest level in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][15]. - The overall trend in the oil market remains downward, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector [3][15]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Palm oil prices are expected to improve due to better export data from Malaysia, while soybean oil faces downward pressure from high production expectations [4][30]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply surplus, with auction prices declining, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [29][30]. Group 4: Metals - Gold and silver prices are stabilizing, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which may provide room for further interest rate cuts [20]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including automotive and construction [21]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a slight decline, with expectations for price stabilization as shipping companies adjust their pricing strategies ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [33].

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia is implementing a new round of mineral exploration strategy to enhance mineral resource security and establish a national energy and strategic resource base during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] Investment and Funding - A total investment of nearly 6 billion yuan has been made, with significant contributions from various sources: 557 million yuan from central finance, 2.616 billion yuan from local finance, and 2.798 billion yuan from social capital [2] - The central government has completed geological surveys over 20,000 square kilometers, focusing on energy resource bases in the central and eastern regions [2] Exploration Achievements - Significant mineral discoveries have been made in key areas, including 37 new exploration targets in the Alashan North Mountain region and 19 in the Baiyun Obo area, with new findings of gold, copper, tungsten, iron, niobium, and rare earth resources [3] - The increase in strategic mineral reserves includes nearly 20 billion tons of coal, 1.2 billion tons of iron ore, 300 million tons of fluorite, over 17 million tons of crystalline graphite, 600,000 tons of lithium, 500,000 tons of copper, over 100,000 tons of tin, and 300 tons of gold [3] Market Mechanisms - Inner Mongolia is exploring incentive mechanisms for social capital participation in mineral exploration, with pilot projects planned in Chifeng City and Xilin Gol League by 2025 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

Group 1: Market Overview - The main spot prices for iron ore at Rizhao Port are PB powder at 790 RMB/wet ton, mixed powder at 819 RMB/wet ton, and lump ore at 870 RMB/wet ton [1] - As of December 23, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 778.5 RMB/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [1] - The optimal delivery product is lump ore, with PB powder and lump ore warehouse costs at 845.7 RMB and 836.9 RMB respectively, resulting in a PB powder basis of 67.2 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Daily iron water production is 2.2655 million tons, down 26,500 tons month-on-month; the blast furnace operating rate is 78.47%, down 0.16%; and the capacity utilization rate is 84.93%, down 1 percentage point [1] - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.28 million tons to 34.645 million tons, with Australia and Brazil's total shipments at 28.147 million tons, down 1.508 million tons [1] - The inventory at 45 ports is 155.1263 million tons, up 812,100 tons month-on-month, indicating a slight accumulation trend [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a pattern of accumulation due to high inventory levels, but the marginal accumulation space is expected to decrease [2] - The future price trend will depend on BHP negotiations, iron water trends, and steel mill restocking expectations [2] - Short-term strategies suggest a range trading approach for the May contract, with a reference range of 760-810 RMB [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the finished steel prices continued to fluctuate. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to export license management but are expected to gradually digest the policy impact. The willingness for winter storage is low this year, and there may not be large - scale restocking. Attention should be paid to the possible marginal impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply of overseas shipments has decreased, the demand for molten iron has declined, and the port inventory has increased while the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall macro sentiment has improved. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate following the market, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to decline, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [20]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [22]. 3. Summary by Catalog Steel - **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60,684 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract decreased by 11,933 lots to 1.580041 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.122%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,293 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract increased by 9846 lots to 1.198397 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy View** - Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. Hot - rolled coil production dropped significantly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory continued to fall. The export license policy aims to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry. Overall, the terminal demand is weak, the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to the policy but are expected to gradually digest it. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness is low [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 778.50 yuan/ton, down 0.38% (- 3.00). The position increased by 2081 lots to 554,000 lots. The weighted position was 928,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy View** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, while those from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily molten iron output continued to decline, and the steel mill profitability remained stable. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory reached a five - year low. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information** - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 88 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed at 5648 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 52 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View** - The macro sentiment has improved. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most factors are already priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand is basically balanced, and the supply has decreased due to production losses. The future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 2.15% (+ 185). The weighted position decreased by 15,701 lots to 401,013 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View** - The price is expected to fluctuate following the market. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 59,225 yuan/ton, up 0.65% (+ 380). The weighted position decreased by 10,996 lots to 223,576 lots. The spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type re - feed material was 52.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 6875 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions from December 25 [14][16]. - **Strategy View** - The supply is expected to decline, but the decrease may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high before the Spring Festival. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information** - The main contract of glass closed at 1028 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% (- 3). The North China large - plate price was 1020 yuan, down 10; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,833 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 21,478 short positions [19]. - **Strategy View** - The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations due to insufficient terminal demand and increasing inventory pressure [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1175 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 0.51% (+ 6). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, up 18. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+ 0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory down 18,800 tons and the light - soda inventory up 23,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9114 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10,651 short positions [21]. - **Strategy View** - The downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited due to cost reduction and low profitability. Short positions can be considered [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and winter storage still needs some time. The 05 contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil has not broken out of the recent trading range. For both rebar and hot - rolled coil, it is recommended to hold long positions for medium - term trading [2]. - For iron ore, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories put pressure on futures prices. However, long positions can still be held for medium - term trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of five major steel products declined. Overall inventory continued to fall. Rebar's apparent demand rebounded slightly, while the overall apparent demand of the five major products decreased. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2]. - **Cost**: The sharp rebound in coking coal and coke prices in recent days has increased the cost support for the futures market [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the trading range and then rebounded quickly, remaining within the recent trading range without a downward breakthrough [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for medium - term trading [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of five major steel products decreased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The reduction in steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range trading at a relatively high level [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for medium - term trading [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In November 2025, global crude steel production was 140.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. From January to November 2025, global crude steel production was 1.6622 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. China's steel production in November was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [7]. - In mid - December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 470,000 tons or 5.9%. The inventory decline continued to widen [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 164.3615 million tons, an increase of 3.4349 million tons from last Monday. Port inventory accumulation accelerated [7]. - From December 15th to 21st, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.247 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 527,000 tons, showing a slight rebound [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 787, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly; PB powder price is 790, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly; Mac powder price is 784, down 3 daily and up 7 weekly; Jinbuba powder price is 743, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly; Mixed powder price is 733, down 2 daily and up 8 weekly; Super special powder price is 672, down 5 daily and up 2 weekly; Roy Hill powder price is 777, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Ba Hun price is 825, down 4 daily and up 5 weekly; Ba coarse IOC6 price is 754, down 10 daily and up 1 weekly; Ba coarse SSFG price is 759, down 10 daily and up 1 weekly [1] - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 875, down 2 daily and up 10 weekly; 61% Indian powder price is 732, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly; 57% Indian powder price is 607, down 5 daily and up 2 weekly; Atlas powder price is 728, down 2 daily and up 8 weekly; KUMBA powder price is 849, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 976, unchanged daily and up 7 weekly [1] 3.2 Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 price is 796.5, down 1.0 daily and up 13.0 weekly; i2605 price is 778.5, down 3.0 daily and up 17.5 weekly; i2609 price is 756.5, down 4.0 daily and up 17.0 weekly [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 price is 104.76, up 0.06 daily and up 3.23 weekly; FE05 price is 102.81, up 0.06 daily and up 3.33 weekly; FE09 price is 100.75, up 0.06 daily and up 3.30 weekly [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content. Report Core View - Steel prices are supported by the cost - end but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3]. - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non - mainstream mines as the main source of incremental supply, exerting significant supply pressure. However, iron ore also has upward drivers such as the expected bottoming of hot - metal production, so it is expected to trade in a range [21]. - As terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts, the valuation repair drive may be weakened [30]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys show both weak supply and demand. Their price increase space is limited, but they are also supported by costs [46]. - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming into production, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The spot - futures basis is high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be shut down for cold repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [83]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Price - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3116 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 10 contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [4]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3330 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Beijing was 3130 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shenyang was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged [8][10]. Basis and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 204 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day; the 05 basis was 192 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 10 basis was 151 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 05 basis was - 11 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 10 basis was - 25 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 164 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 05 spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 spread was 126 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [8][10][14]. Iron Ore Price and Basis - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 796.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 09 contract was 756.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The 01 basis was - 2.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the 05 basis was 13.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the 09 basis was 34.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [22]. Fundamental Data - From December 19, 2025, the average daily hot - metal output was 226.55 tons, down 2.65 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port desilting volume was 313.45 tons, down 5.74 tons week - on - week; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 835 tons, down 4 tons week - on - week; the global shipment volume was 3464.5 tons, down 128 tons week - on - week; the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2748.6 tons, down 140.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port arrival volume was 2646.7 tons, down 76.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, up 81.21 tons week - on - week; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8723.95 tons, down 110.25 tons week - on - week; the available days for 247 steel mills were 31.09 days, down 0.1 days week - on - week [25]. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 159 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the 05 - 09 spread was - 78 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 01 - 05 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The coke 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 142 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan. The on - disk coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, down 19.281 yuan; the main mine - coke ratio was 0.447, down 0.001; the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.797, up 0.004; the main coke - coking coal ratio was 1.544, down 0.021 [33]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No.5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged [37]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 23, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 48 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 144 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Qinghai was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shaanxi was 5320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Gansu was 5300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [47]. Silicon Manganese - On December 23, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 98 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 116 yuan/ton, unchanged. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia was 5570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guizhou was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangxi was 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48][49]. Soda Ash Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.51%; the 09 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.74%; the 01 contract was 1117 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.72%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with a change of 5.56%; the 9 - 1 spread was 115 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, with a change of 0.88%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with a change of - 3.33%. The basis of Shahe heavy soda was - 50 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the basis of Qinghai heavy soda was - 249 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [61]. Spot Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the market price of heavy soda in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in South China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shahe was 1137 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The market price of light soda in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between heavy and light soda in most regions was 50 - 70 yuan/ton [61]. Glass Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1028 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.29%; the 09 contract was 1130 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the 01 contract was 938 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was 192 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 77 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; in Hubei was 159 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 05 contract basis in Shahe was - 33 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was 59 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was - 130 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was - 41 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [84]. Sales and Production - From December 13 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was between 69 - 98%; in Hubei was between 75 - 109%; in East China was between 83 - 98%; in South China was between 95 - 107% [85].