聪明人已悄悄将50%存款转移至这四样，原因很现实 周末和朋友喝奶茶时，她翻着手机银行余额叹气："这两万块活期存了大半年，利息才几块钱，感觉钱放着就是'躺平贬值'。"我笑着说我妈更有意思，前阵 子拉着我算账，说把家里一半存款取出来，分了好几份存，还买了点"跟国家走"的产品，现在每个月利息比以前多好几百。 其实不止我妈，身边不少人最近都在调整存款方式——不再把钱全塞在银行活期里，反而拿出50%左右，分散放到几样东西里。你可能会疑惑：这不是瞎折 腾吗？万一有风险怎么办？但仔细了解就会发现，他们选的这四样，都有官方背书或明确规则，既不是高风险的"投机"，也不是没谱的"偏方"，背后的原因 特别现实：无非是想让钱"不贬值"，还能有点稳定收益，哪怕不多，总比活期"躺平"强。 1. 储蓄国债：财政部盖章的"保本王"，稳到不用慌 第一个要提的，就是很多长辈爱抢的"储蓄国债"——这东西是财政部发行的，相当于"国家向你借钱"，安全性拉满，根本不用担心理财暴雷那套，而且利息 比银行活期高不少。 就说2024年，财政部一共发行了12期储蓄国债，其中3年期利率2.65%，5年期2.75%，虽然不算特别高，但胜在"保本保息"，而且可以提前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a shift away from expectations of interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to control inflation rather than stimulate the economy, which could lead to a re-evaluation of investment strategies in gold and Bitcoin [1][3][26]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Cleveland Fed President Mester warns against loosening policies too quickly, stating that current inflation remains above the 2% target, and hasty rate cuts could undermine previous inflation control efforts [5]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic dismisses the need for rate cuts this year, predicting core inflation to rise to 3.1% by year-end and unemployment to reach 4.5% [5]. - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson acknowledges the dilemma of rising inflation risks while recognizing employment risks, suggesting a cautious approach to policy adjustments [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish comments, gold prices fell sharply, with New York futures dropping from $4,012 to $3,926, marking the largest single-day decline in two weeks [11]. - Bitcoin also experienced a significant drop, falling from $116,000 to $112,800, as institutional buying paused amid reduced expectations for rate cuts [13]. - The S&P 500 index declined by 1.1%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.3%, indicating a shift of funds from riskier assets to safer investments [15]. Group 3: Adjusted Market Predictions - Institutions have revised their rate cut expectations, with Deutsche Bank's previous forecast of three cuts in Q4 being overturned [16]. - Invesco has lowered its forecast to two cuts by year-end, while ICBC International warns that excessive easing could damage policy credibility, suggesting a gradual rate cut approach [18]. - This shift implies a significant reduction in the previously anticipated "easy money" environment that supported gold and Bitcoin prices [19]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Adjustments - The Fed's stance suggests a transition from betting on rate cuts to closely monitoring economic data [21]. - Investors are advised to focus on key indicators such as the upcoming Fed meeting on October 28 and weekly jobless claims to gauge employment pressures [23]. - A recommended asset allocation includes maintaining 10% in gold (primarily physical) and reducing Bitcoin exposure to 3% of discretionary funds, while avoiding leveraged contracts [23]. Group 5: Long-term Value Perspective - Despite the Fed's cautious approach, the fundamental logic for gold and Bitcoin remains intact, as long as M2 money supply continues to grow and currency devaluation persists [26]. - The previous "rapid growth model" for assets is expected to shift to a "volatile upward trend," emphasizing the importance of long-term holding strategies over short-term speculation [30].

事情得从六月的社区理财讲座说起。那天居委会的公告栏贴了张彩纸，写着 "金融知识进社区，助您财 富增值"，落款是某股份制银行。张大爷早上去取报纸时看见了，回家换了件熨平整的的确良衬衫就去 了。 "会场摆了两排花篮，水果盘堆得冒尖，" 后来他跟我复盘，语气里满是懊悔，"那客户经理比我儿子还 热情，一口一个'张叔'，说我之前存的定期利息太低，不如转成股票基金，还拿手机给我看走势图，红 箭头一路往上窜。" 我后来才知道，那所谓的 "走势图" 是截取了 2025 年春节后 AI 概念股的短期行情。农银汇理基金当时 的报告里提过，那段时间受 DeepSeek 技术突破影响，恒生科技等主线确实有一波上行，但进入七月， 市场就因政策窗口期未到、融资盘了结等因素开始震荡。可这些专业分析，没人跟张大爷讲过。 他当场就签了风险评估表。后来我在银行工作的朋友说，这种线上填写的评估往往有猫腻，有的客户经 理会暗示选项，硬生生把保守型客户改成进取型 —— 就像 82 岁的邵丽渊老人那样，明明其他银行评估 都是 R1 级，涉事银行却测出了 R4 级。张大爷的评估结果是 R3 级，刚好够买那款标注 "中高风险" 的 股票基金。 楼下便利店的 ...

8月份，从交易规模看，按法人机构统计，公司信用类债券前50名投资者交易占比60.8%，主要集中在 证券公司（自营）、基金公司（资管）和银行理财子公司（资管），前200名投资者交易占比91.1%。 北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）9月30日，人民银行公布2025年8月份金融市场运行情况。截至8月 末，银行间债券市场的法人机构成员共3984家，全部为金融机构。从持债规模看，公司信用类债券前50 名投资者持债占比53.0%，主要集中在公募基金（资管）、国有大型商业银行（自营）、保险类金融机 构（资管）等；前200名投资者持债占比83.9%。单只公司信用类债券持有人数量最大值、最小值、平 均值和中位值分别为114、1、12、12家，持有人20家以内的信用债只数占比88.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices have surpassed $3,800 per ounce for the first time, reaching a historical high of $3,819.81 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF), SPDR Gold Trust, reported an increase in holdings from 996.85 tons to 1,005.72 tons, a rise of 0.89% as of September 26 [1] - Gold prices have increased by 45% this year, supported by central bank demand and the Fed's resumption of interest rate cuts, with expectations for gold prices to rise for the third consecutive quarter [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - The weakening of the dollar and the anticipated meeting between Congressional leaders and President Trump regarding government funding are contributing factors to the rise in gold prices [1] - Current market expectations indicate a 90% probability of a rate cut by the Fed in October and a 65% probability in December, which is influencing gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Barclays Bank suggest that gold prices appear reasonable compared to the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a potential premium associated with the Fed's perceived loss of independence [1] - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, expect the upward trend in gold prices to continue [1]

Group 1: Tourism and Travel - The total cross-regional population flow during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday is expected to exceed 2.36 billion people, with an average daily flow of approximately 295 million, representing a 3.2% increase compared to the same period last year [1][1] - Domestic and international tourism is showing strong momentum, with cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, Beijing, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Chongqing expected to surpass last year's tourism levels [1][1] Group 2: Metals Industry - Eight departments have issued a plan to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual increase of 5% in industry value added and a recycling metal output exceeding 20 million tons [1][1] - The plan emphasizes enhancing the application of rare metals and accelerating the application verification of high-end products in emerging industries such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [1][1] Group 3: Food Safety Regulations - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released new regulations to strengthen food safety supervision for catering service chain enterprises, which will take effect on December 1, 2025 [1][1] - The regulations require a tiered management approach based on the number of stores and emphasize the responsibilities of headquarters in managing food safety [1][1] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The global trade friction index rose from 92 in June to 110 in July, indicating an increase in trade tensions, with the monetary value of trade friction measures rising by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month [1][1] - The latest ETF scale has reached 5.5 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, with 115 ETFs exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale [1][1] Group 5: Investment and Strategic Partnerships - Nanjing Pharmaceutical has signed a strategic investment agreement with Baiyunshan and Guangyao Phase II Fund, involving capital cooperation and distribution channel collaboration [1][1] - Shanghai Future Industry Fund has successfully expanded its scale from 10 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan, focusing on advanced fields such as controlled nuclear fusion and quantum computing [1][1]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：ETF炼金师） 市场回顾：在最新交易周中，A股市场表现出强劲的反弹趋势，主要股指持续上扬。其中，上证50ETF （510050）上涨1.05%，沪深300ETF（510300）上涨1.02%，中证500ETF（510500）上涨1.03%。创业 板ETF（159915）表现尤为突出，涨幅达到2.19%，而深证100ETF（399106）和科创板50ETF （588000）则分别上涨了1.55%和6.50%。 截至9月25日，沪深两市的融资余额达24274.11亿元，较前一周上升1.92%；融券余额则为169.56亿元， 周环比上升2.30%。期权市场方面，上证50ETF的隐含波动率为17.62%，而沪深300ETF为18.14%，两者 均显示出隐波与历史波动的价差有所变化。 财经要闻：在国新办最新发布会上，央行行长潘功胜透露，截至今年6月末，我国银行业总资产接近470 万亿元，继续稳居全球第一。同时，我国的股票与债券市场规模也位居世界第二，外汇储备则连续20年 保持世界第一。此信息的发布进一步巩固了市场对中国金融稳定性和增长潜力的信心。 值得注意的是，A股"9.24"行情已迎来一周年， ...

以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 前几天，最新的社融数据出炉了，其中一个最值得大家留意的数据是存款数据。 最新8月份的数据显示： 8月份东大新增企业存 款2997亿元，同比少增503亿元； 新增的居民存款1100亿元，同比去年少增6000 亿 元。 而在此之前的 7月， 居民存款存量大概是 1.11万亿元 ，同比多减7800亿元。 在银行存款不断下跌、资金显著流出的同时，非银行业金融机构，比如券商、基金、保险公司这 些机构的存款，则在显著增长。 因为从数据上看， 这一轮资金转移并没有盲目涌向高风险的领域，而是更多流向相对稳健的理 财、债基产品。 8月份， 非银存款增加了 1.18万亿元 ，同比多增5500亿元。 7月份非银机构的存款增加额更是高达 2.14万亿元 。 今年前8个月，非银存款累计新增达到了 5.87万亿元 ，创下了历史同期的新高。 大量存款离开银行存款，流向券商、基金这些机构，说明什么？ 说明随着大A资本市场的热度提升， 资金正在不断挪动转场进入资本市场，大规模的存款搬家已 经开始了。 而且不仅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "9·24" policy has not only boosted stock market indices and market capitalization but also significantly impacted household finances, leading to a shift in wealth from traditional bank deposits to investment markets [1][9]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - A new wave of "deposit migration" appears to be underway, driven by declining interest rates and a shift in investment preferences among residents [3][6]. - As of August 2025, the balance of RMB deposits reached 322.73 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 9.77 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits surged by 5.87 trillion yuan [3][4]. - In August, household deposits saw a net increase of only 110 billion yuan, a decrease of 600 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant shift in fund allocation [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has entered a bullish phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 14% since the beginning of the year, and total A-share market capitalization exceeding 104 trillion yuan [4][9]. - The average daily trading volume has surpassed 1.64 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity and investor interest [4][9]. - The number of new stock accounts opened has doubled month-on-month, with 2.64 million new personal stock accounts in August alone, marking a 165.57% year-on-year increase [10]. Group 3: Factors Driving Change - The decline in bank deposit interest rates, coupled with rising stock market performance and regulatory policies, has been a significant driver of the current deposit migration trend [6][8]. - Historical patterns show that deposit migration has occurred during periods of low interest rates and strong stock market performance, indicating a shift in investment strategies among residents [6][7]. - The current environment reflects a transition from traditional high-yield bank deposits to more diversified investment products, including stocks and non-bank financial products [5][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming peak of high-yield fixed-term deposits maturing in 2025-2026, combined with ongoing favorable policies for the capital market, suggests that the deposit migration process will continue [13]. - Analysts predict that the strength and duration of this migration will depend on the yield differential between asset management products and new deposits, as well as the overall economic outlook [13][14]. - Financial institutions are advised to adapt their strategies to retain deposits, optimize their funding structures, and enhance customer satisfaction to mitigate the impact of deposit migration [14][15].

| 时间 | 托管数量 | 期末托管规模 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (月) | (亿元) | 増幅 | | 2023年1月 | 572 | 3614.2 | 1. 20% | | 2023年2月 | 572 | 3645. 7 | 0. 90% | | 2023年3月 | 626 | 3961.7 | 9% | | 2023年4月 | 633 | 4043. 7 | 2% | | 2023年5月 | 625 | 4191. 2 | 4% | | 2023年6月 | 665 | 4438. 0 | 6% | | 2023年7月 | 652 | 4191. 4 | -6% | | 2023年8月 | 636 | 3904. 3 | -7% | | 2023年9月 | 633 | 3619. 6 | 10% | | 2023年10月 | 642 | 3581. 2 | -1% | | 2023年11月 | 633 | 3501. 3 | -2% | | 2023年12月 | 660 | 3640. 4 | 2% | | 2024年1月 | 704 | 3880. 4 ...