2026.01. 19 本文字数：2378，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 "美国净国际投资头寸已跌至创纪录的负值极值，欧美金融市场的相互依存度正处于历史高点。"萨拉维诺斯称，"相比贸易流动，资本的武器化才是当前 对市场最具颠覆性的威胁。" 据央视新闻，当地时间1月17日，美总统特朗普发文称，将对8个反对其收购格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征10%的关税，数月后还将增至25%，直至就"完 全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议，引发了市场对贸易战的担忧。 受此影响，19日全球市场避险情绪升温，黄金、美债等避险资产上涨，现货黄金站上4690美元/盎司关口，刷新历史高点，现货白银站上94美元/盎司关 口，创历史新高。美股期货走低。 高盛提示，欧盟内部可能呼吁启动反胁迫工具（Anti-Coercion Instrument,ACI）。德银报告更警示欧洲抛售持有的八万亿美元资产的风险。不论如 何，在特朗普政策不确定性迭起之下，全球投资者转向非美资产投资的趋势越来越显著。 图源：新华社 机构警告欧洲报复风险 德意志银行的外汇策略全球主管萨拉维诺斯（George Saravelos）在周日的致客户报告中警示，尽管特朗普就格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Enterprise ESG "Golden Responsibility Award" aims to recognize companies and institutions that have made significant contributions to ESG initiatives in China, reflecting a shift from voluntary practices to compliance requirements in ESG performance [1][18]. Group 1: Award Categories and Winners - The award includes ten categories: Best Environmental Responsibility Award, Best Social Responsibility Award, Best Corporate Governance Responsibility Award, Best Responsibility Initiative Award, Annual Sustainable Development Award, Best Responsible Investment Bank Award, Best Responsible Investment Securities Company Award, Best Responsible Investment Insurance Company Award, Best Responsible Investment Fund Company Award, and Best Responsible Investment Asset Management Institution Award [1][18]. - The Best Environmental Responsibility Award winners include: Sungrow Power Supply, Industrial Fulian, Kweichow Moutai, Geely Automobile, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Visual Technology, Linyang Electronics, Tongwei Co., Weichai Power, and Luxshare Precision [10][28]. - The Best Social Responsibility Award winners include: China Shenhua, China General Nuclear Power, China Resources Sanjiu, Sinopec, Shougang, Wuliangye, Yangtze Power, China Telecom, China Oilfield Services, and LONGi Green Energy [10][28]. - The Best Corporate Governance Responsibility Award winners include: Zijin Mining, SF Holding, ZTE Corporation, Industrial Fulian, JA Solar, Sany Heavy Industry, Nanjing Steel, Bright Dairy, TCL Zhonghuan, and Fuyao Glass [10][28]. - The Best Responsibility Initiative Award winners include: FiberHome Technologies, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haitian Flavoring and Food, Aier Eye Hospital, Yunnan Baiyao, Anker Innovations, Kingfa Sci. & Tech., Huatai Securities, Silex, and Hainengda [11][28]. - The Annual Sustainable Development Award winners include: China General Nuclear Power, Sungrow Power Supply, Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Zijin Mining, Hikvision, Yili, Baosteel, Chint Electric, and China Mobile [11][28]. Group 2: Responsible Investment Awards - The Best Responsible Investment Bank Award winners include: Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Bank of China [11][28]. - The Best Responsible Investment Securities Company Award winners include: Guotai Junan, Everbright Securities, CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and CICC [12][28]. - The Best Responsible Investment Insurance Company Award winners include: China Life Insurance, China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, China Re, Sunshine Insurance, and China Life [13][28]. - The Best Responsible Investment Fund Company Award winners include: Bosera Funds, Southern Fund, China Asset Management, Penghua Fund, Huitianfu Fund, and E Fund [14][28]. - The Best Responsible Investment Asset Management Institution Award winners include: China Life Asset Management, Huaxia Wealth Management, Xingyin Wealth Management, Taikang Asset, Taikang Asset, and Galaxy Investment [15][28]. Group 3: ESG Development Context - By 2025, China's ESG development has transitioned from "setting standards" to "strengthening regulations," with a comprehensive disclosure standard system being established [1][18]. - The ESG performance of enterprises is now a compliance requirement, linking commercial value with social value [1][18]. - The ESG rating center aims to promote sustainable development and responsible investment, enhancing the ESG performance of listed companies [17][34].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Luoniushan's stock price has been declining for six consecutive days, with a total drop of 7.09% during this period, currently trading at 8.13 yuan per share and a market capitalization of 9.362 billion yuan [1] - Luoniushan Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in pig farming and slaughtering, cold chain business, real estate, and education services, with the main business revenue composition being: livestock industry 64.60%, food processing 13.46%, education 7.73%, real estate 7.16%, warehousing and logistics 4.05%, and others 2.99% [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Luoniushan, a fund under Southern Fund holds a position, specifically the Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100), which reduced its holdings by 110,000 shares in the third quarter, now holding 8.4238 million shares, accounting for 0.73% of circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) has a current scale of 76.63 billion yuan, with a year-to-date return of 8.02% and a one-year return of 49.62% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.6% in 2026, according to the World Bank. The US GDP growth rate is projected to reach 2.2%, while the eurozone and Japan's economic growth rates are expected to slow down to 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. The US employment market remains weak, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by about 50bps in 2026. The price of oil is predicted to decline in 2026 due to an oversupply in the global market, and the price of coal may perform better than in 2025. Many metal futures prices have reached record highs, and institutions are still bullish on gold. The Chinese government is promoting the development of circular economy and industrial internet platforms, and taking measures to boost the service industry and consumption [10][19][31] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, and the non-manufacturing PMI for business activity was 50.2%. In November 2025, the monthly social financing scale was 2488.8 billion yuan, and the新增 RMB loans by financial institutions were 390 billion yuan. In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year. In November 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -2.6%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.0%. In November 2025, the monthly export amount increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and the monthly import amount increased by 1.9% year-on-year [1] Commodity Investment Reference - **Comprehensive**: The trading and intraday closing transaction fees for certain lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted, and trading volume limits will be imposed. On January 13, 2026, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 30 had negative basis. China will continue to impose anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the US and South Korea for 5 years. The Fed's Williams believes the current economic situation is favorable, with no strong pressure for interest rate adjustments. The CME Group plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract in February [2][3] - **Metals**: Since the beginning of 2026, the futures prices of many metal varieties have reached record highs. The price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract has exceeded 25,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai copper has exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton. Many gold industry listed companies expect significant performance growth in 2025. The copper inventory in LME registered warehouses has decreased by 22%, and the copper inventory in US COMEX warehouses has increased by 444% in the past 12 months. The Chilean National Mining Association expects the copper price to be at $4.5 per pound in 2026 [5][6][7] - **Coking Coal, Steel, and Minerals**: Coking coal options will be listed on the DCE on January 16, 2026. S&P predicts that the upstream of China's commodity industry will perform better than the downstream. CITIC Securities believes that the coal price in 2026 may be better than in 2025 [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Venezuela's state oil company has restarted oil wells to increase production. The EIA predicts that oil prices will decline in 2026 due to oversupply, and global oil inventories will continue to increase until 2027. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be $56 per barrel in 2026, a 19% decrease from 2025. The EIA also provides forecasts for US natural gas and oil production and demand [10][11][12] - **Agricultural Products**: As of January 11, 2026, the EU's barley exports in the 2025/26 season reached 5.4 million tons, and soft wheat exports were 11.6 million tons. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects the country's soybean, corn, and soybean meal exports in January 2026 to reach 3.73 million tons, 3.27 million tons, and 1.82 million tons respectively [13] Financial News Compilation - **Open Market**: On January 13, 2026, the central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 342.4 billion yuan [14] - **Important News and Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate the "15th Five-Year" plan for circular economy development. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes that enterprises should participate in industry rule-making and resist "involution". The US has relaxed the export regulations of NVIDIA's H200 chips to China. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued an action plan for the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms. Eight departments have introduced measures to promote the high-quality development of the elderly care service and silver economy. The Shanghai government has issued measures to promote the coordinated development of the service industry and consumption. Many convertible bonds will be redeemed early. The World Bank has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%. Japanese government bonds have been sold off due to concerns about fiscal deterioration. The US budget deficit in December 2025 reached a record high. The US has taken a series of actions regarding Iran. The investigation of the Fed's Chairman Powell continues to ferment. Trump has made a series of statements on economic and political issues [16][17][19] - **Bond Market Summary**: Affected by the rise in capital prices, the yields of interest rate bonds have shown a differentiated trend, and the bond market is in a volatile pattern. The prices of some Vanke bonds have risen, while others have fallen. The CSI Convertible Bond Index has declined. The money market interest rates have mostly risen. The yields of European and US bonds have shown different trends [23][24][25] - **Foreign Exchange Market Express**: The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9765 on January 13, 2026, down 23 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.28%, and most non-US currencies fell [29] - **Research Report Highlights**: CICC predicts that US inflation may experience compensatory growth in December 2025, January 2026, and April 2026. CITIC Securities believes that the US employment market is still weak, and the Fed may cut interest rates by about 50bps in 2026. CITIC Construction Investment reports that the primary market issuance of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds increased in December 2025, and the secondary market indices rose. Xingzheng Fixed Income suggests focusing on the secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds of certain regional city and rural commercial banks. S&P believes that China's local governments may continue to issue large-scale debt in the next one or two years, and interest rate cuts can relieve some debt pressure. Citi warns that the continuous issuance of short-term bonds in Europe may threaten the independence of central banks [30][31][32] - **Today's Reminder**: On January 14, 2026, 178 bonds will be listed, 126 bonds will be issued, 90 bonds will make payments, and 167 bonds will pay principal and interest [33][34] Stock Market Important News - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.9% to 26,848.47 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose slightly by 0.11%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.71%. Pharmaceutical stocks generally rose, while gold and non-ferrous metals were active. Commercial aerospace and brain-computer interface concept stocks declined. Zhaoyi Innovation's H shares rose more than 37% on the first day of listing. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$1.296 billion. The ETF managed by Huaxia Fund exceeded 1 trillion yuan, becoming the first "trillion-level" ETF manager in China [35]

Group 1: Industry Developments - The People's Bank of China has launched the "Action Plan" for strengthening the digital RMB management service system, marking the entry into the 2.0 era of digital RMB [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement actions for traditional industry renewal and the development of emerging industries, focusing on breakthroughs in quantum technology, humanoid robots, brain-machine interfaces, deep-sea polar technology, and 6G [2] - The commercial aerospace sector achieved a milestone with the successful suborbital flight test of the "Lihong No. 1" vehicle, marking the first domestic recovery test of a suborbital capsule [7] Group 2: Company News - Guizhou Moutai plans to adjust the factory prices of several products, including a reduction of the "Moutai Boutique Wine" price from 2969 yuan to 1859 yuan [10] - WuXi AppTec expects to achieve approximately 45.456 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 15.84%, with net profit expected to reach approximately 19.151 billion yuan, a growth of about 102.65% [10] - TSMC anticipates a net profit of 475.2 billion New Taiwan dollars (approximately 15.02 billion USD) in Q4 2025, a 27% year-on-year increase, driven by rising global AI infrastructure demand [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by geopolitical factors, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and increased industrial demand, leading to a positive outlook for precious metals in the medium to long term [2][3][8]. Price Movements - As of January 12, gold reached a record high of $4610.68 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 2%, while silver rose more than 7% to surpass $85 per ounce, also setting a new historical record [2][3]. - International gold and silver futures hit historical highs of $4612.7 per ounce and $84.69 per ounce, respectively, with daily increases of 2% and 5% [3]. ETF Performance - Gold ETFs collectively rose, with the Guotou Silver LOF increasing by 7.11% [3]. - In the first seven trading days of 2026, gold ETFs saw net subscriptions exceeding 400 million shares, with the Huazhang Gold ETF approaching a scale of 100 billion yuan [3]. Institutional Insights - UBS Wealth Management raised its price forecast for gold, increasing target prices for March, June, and September 2026 from $4500 to $5000 per ounce, with a slight decline expected to $4800 by the end of 2026 [4]. - Analysts from various institutions express optimism about the long-term performance of gold and silver, citing a shift in investment logic towards strategic hedging against long-term structural risks [8][9]. Banking Sector Response - In response to high gold prices, banks are tightening risk management for gold-related businesses, raising the entry threshold for gold accumulation business to a balanced investment level [5][6]. - Several banks have launched structured deposits linked to gold, offering varying expected annual returns based on gold price fluctuations [6][7]. Industrial Demand - Increased demand for gold from central banks and industrial sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure is contributing to rising gold and silver prices [3][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of gold prices, with the latest price reported at $4580.10 per ounce, marking a significant increase of $62.10 or 1.37% from the previous closing price of $4518.40 per ounce [1] - In the context of macroeconomic factors, the bond market is reacting to expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by lower-than-expected job growth reported in the non-farm payrolls [3] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is anticipated to show high inflation, which may support the Fed's decision to pause on interest rate changes, with traders predicting the next rate cut could occur in mid-2026 [3][4] Group 2 - The technical analysis of COMEX gold indicates a strong upward trend, with a weekly increase exceeding 5%, and the price successfully maintaining above the psychological level of $4500 [5] - Macro factors supporting gold prices include rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, continued gold purchases by global central banks, and a weakening US dollar [5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could reach $4745 per ounce by Q4 2026, although there may be short-term profit-taking pressure above $4580 [5]

Group 1 - The 2025 Chinese capital market is characterized by the rise of new players amidst deep adjustments in traditional industries, highlighting a trend where both veteran leaders and new generations must embrace innovation and risk management to thrive [13][12] - Notable figures in the capital market include Zhu Jiusheng, Lei Jun, Wang Chuanfu, and others, whose experiences reflect personal turning points and broader industry cycles [13] - The ongoing power struggle within the Double Star Group, marked by the founder's public declaration to sever ties with his son, exposes governance crises and challenges for the century-old brand [14] Group 2 - The 毛戈平 family plans to cash out over 1.4 billion HKD through a collective share reduction, indicating significant financial maneuvers within the company [15] - Huawei and GAC Group have signed a comprehensive cooperation framework agreement to jointly innovate in areas like AI and smart vehicles, aiming to enhance competitiveness in the global automotive market [18] - The real estate sector is entering a critical transformation phase, with experts emphasizing the need for policies that stabilize market expectations and improve conditions for second-hand housing [19] Group 3 - The appointment of seasoned executives at 招商银行 reflects a strategy focused on stability and internal talent development, as the bank promotes experienced individuals to its leadership team [24] - The recent passing of Liu Hui, a prominent fund manager at 银华基金, marks a significant loss for the investment community, highlighting the impact of individual contributions to the industry [25]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market in China consists of two essential components: the stock market involving listed companies and securities firms, and the capital formation and supplementation mechanism for all enterprises, which includes the development of equity investment funds [2][3]. Group 1: Capital Market Structure - The capital market should not only focus on securities and listings but also encompass mechanisms for capital formation and supplementation for enterprises [2]. - The dual components of the capital market act as a significant driving force for the national economy, necessitating a sustainable capital supplementation mechanism to address issues of corporate efficiency and risk [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Current Challenges - Historically, state-led initiatives in the 1990s, such as the bankruptcy write-off of state-owned enterprises and debt-to-equity swaps, played a crucial role in capital supplementation [3]. - By 2000, the capital of listed companies in China was over 70%, but by the present, corporate debt ratios have risen to around 70%, significantly higher than the 30%-40% seen in the US and Europe [3][4]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions for Capital Supplementation - To improve the capital structure, an additional 30 trillion to 40 trillion yuan is needed to raise the total capital of Chinese enterprises from approximately 200 trillion yuan to around 240 trillion yuan, potentially reducing the debt ratio to 55% or 50% [5][6]. - Four sources for this additional capital include: 1. Bank capital, where banks could allocate about 1 trillion yuan for equity investments [6]. 2. National social security funds, which could contribute approximately 2 trillion yuan [6]. 3. Commercial insurance funds, which could provide around 4 trillion yuan [6]. 4. Foreign exchange funds, which could be mobilized through special government bonds [7]. Group 4: Expected Benefits of Capital Injection - The formation of this additional equity capital could lead to improved corporate risk management, enhanced productivity, significant investment returns, and increased influence of state-owned enterprises on the national economy [7]. - An estimated average return of 8% on these investments could yield 3 trillion to 4 trillion yuan in returns, benefiting public finances and enhancing the returns for social security and insurance funds [7].

Core Viewpoint - The era of "easy money" is over, and ordinary individuals must adapt their investment strategies to cope with low returns and inflation [1][3][33] Group 1: Current Financial Landscape - Traditional savings methods, such as placing money in bank accounts or money market funds, are yielding significantly lower returns than in the past, with some funds now offering less than 1% [15][17] - The decline in interest rates is a result of macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating economic activity by encouraging spending and investment rather than saving [7][9] - Regulatory changes have also impacted returns, as previous high-yield strategies employed by banks and funds have been curtailed to ensure stability and transparency [11][13] Group 2: Investment Strategies for the New Era - Individuals are encouraged to explore alternative investment options beyond traditional banking channels, such as seeking out special offers from smaller banks that may provide higher interest rates [19][21] - Diversification is crucial in the current low-yield environment, with recommendations for a balanced asset allocation that includes money market funds, bond funds, and gold ETFs to mitigate risks [23][25] - The "laddering deposit method" is suggested for conservative investors, allowing for a staggered maturity of deposits to maintain liquidity while benefiting from higher interest rates [27] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Lower interest rates on savings are accompanied by reduced loan rates, which can benefit borrowers by decreasing monthly payments and increasing disposable income [29][31] - The overall economic environment may improve as businesses face lower borrowing costs, potentially leading to job creation and a more stable employment landscape [31]